Time's ticking for US trade partners to sign tariff deals with Donald Trump.
In April, the President announced most countries, including New Zealand, would face a 10 percent minimum levy - but has delayed their implementation.
This week, he's promised to send out what he's calling 'take it or leave it' letters.
Harbour Asset Management's Shane Solly revealed how the markets reacted.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Markets. Shane Sally Harbor isst management with us. Hey, Shane,
get it Ryan. How markets react to Trump's latest trade
tariff announcements.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Well, mister Trump is pretty good at keeping us on
our toes. The US shear market futures. This SMP futures
is what is telling us the market expects to happen tonight.
Our time is down point four percent after mister Trump,
he warned us that he's going to put sends some
letters out to people up to ten to twelve on Friday,
and he's going to start sitting livies as much as
(00:29):
seventy percent unilaterally a heat of this July ninth deadline.
So he's throwing a few We're going to make this
happen things today. He's come out, he's on time this
afternoon and said he's going to put an extra ten
percent tariff on those countries aligned with Brooks. This is
the the emerging nations, includes Russia and China, Brazil, and
(00:50):
then adding to the mixed US Treasury Secretary of scot
They said that he, mister Trump may impose April sixond
Liberation Day level tariffs on countries that don't reach a
deal beginning of the first of August. Now that is
different from the July to night, So that suggests that
face for you, you're going to see this extension of
tariff pause again. So that's what capital markets are thinking.
(01:12):
We're all thinking US government's going to push tariffs pauses
out further. If we don't get that, and if we
actually get increased tariffs, that would be a surprise for
capital markets.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
Yeah, okay, interesting. What about the RBA tomorrow their decision.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
Yeah, so the IRBA, Australia's central banker is their bank
in Australia widely expected to deliver a point twenty five
percent cut. That's at four thirty Zone time, and that
would take Australia's official illustrate down to three point six
from three point eight five. At the moment, it's the
key for market. It's all about tone inflations falling back
to within the irba's target bands. So they could do
(01:48):
more cuts, but similarly, they might want to wait and
see how the three twenty five basis points cuts through
from December kicked through. That would be what's called a
hawkish cut, so their cut rates and then they'll say
we're going to wait and see the key thing from
Zeona course on Wednesday. We've got our own reserve bank
coming out and markets aren't expecting anything. Ryan, It's very
much steady as she goes. But there is a growing
(02:10):
view that the rb has some room to start talking
about potentially cutting rates, and that would be what's called
a dovish hole, so they wouldn't cut, but they'd start
talking about potentially cutting. So quite a big difference between
the RBA and the rbn Z certainly is.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
And we've got our call obviously this week as well.
What about Opeic cranking up the oil production. How's that
been received?
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Yeah, actually quite poisonively, just the increase in production. So
Ipeck plus talking about increasing production by five hundred and
forty eight thousand barrels a day, very specific number, which
is up high then they previously indicated four hundred and
eleven thousand dollars barrels a day. What that's mean is
we're seeing the Brent oil price, the futures again, the
(02:52):
forward market, what markets may do overnight in New zeal
And time expecting their oil price to fall by zero
point seven percent, so just under one percent to just
over sixty eight dollars us P barrel and of course
that lower all proce they'd be helpful in tens of
inflation relief, maybe allowing some of those central bankers to
think about cutting rates again.
Speaker 1 (03:09):
Perhaps, Ryan, that'd be nice. Shane, appreciate your time, Shane,
Solly Harbor Asset Management with us for a market rap
for this evening. For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive,
listen live to news Talks the'd be from four pm weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio
Markets. Shane Sally Harbor isst management with us. Hey, Shane,
get it Ryan. How markets react to Trump's latest trade
tariff announcements.
Speaker 2 (00:08):
Well, mister Trump is pretty good at keeping us on
our toes. The US shear market futures. This SMP futures
is what is telling us the market expects to happen tonight.
Our time is down point four percent after mister Trump,
he warned us that he's going to put sends some
letters out to people up to ten to twelve on Friday,
and he's going to start sitting livies as much as
(00:29):
seventy percent unilaterally a heat of this July ninth deadline.
So he's throwing a few We're going to make this
happen things today. He's come out, he's on time this
afternoon and said he's going to put an extra ten
percent tariff on those countries aligned with Brooks. This is
the the emerging nations, includes Russia and China, Brazil, and
(00:50):
then adding to the mixed US Treasury Secretary of scot
They said that he, mister Trump may impose April sixond
Liberation Day level tariffs on countries that don't reach a
deal beginning of the first of August. Now that is
different from the July to night, So that suggests that
face for you, you're going to see this extension of
tariff pause again. So that's what capital markets are thinking.
(01:12):
We're all thinking US government's going to push tariffs pauses
out further. If we don't get that, and if we
actually get increased tariffs, that would be a surprise for
capital markets.
Speaker 1 (01:22):
Yeah, okay, interesting. What about the RBA tomorrow their decision.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
Yeah, so the IRBA, Australia's central banker is their bank
in Australia widely expected to deliver a point twenty five
percent cut. That's at four thirty Zone time, and that
would take Australia's official illustrate down to three point six
from three point eight five. At the moment, it's the
key for market. It's all about tone inflations falling back
to within the irba's target bands. So they could do
(01:48):
more cuts, but similarly, they might want to wait and
see how the three twenty five basis points cuts through
from December kicked through. That would be what's called a
hawkish cut, so their cut rates and then they'll say
we're going to wait and see the key thing from
Zeona course on Wednesday. We've got our own reserve bank
coming out and markets aren't expecting anything. Ryan, It's very
much steady as she goes. But there is a growing
(02:10):
view that the rb has some room to start talking
about potentially cutting rates, and that would be what's called
a dovish hole, so they wouldn't cut, but they'd start
talking about potentially cutting. So quite a big difference between
the RBA and the rbn Z certainly is.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
And we've got our call obviously this week as well.
What about Opeic cranking up the oil production. How's that
been received?
Speaker 2 (02:31):
Yeah, actually quite poisonively, just the increase in production. So
Ipeck plus talking about increasing production by five hundred and
forty eight thousand barrels a day, very specific number, which
is up high then they previously indicated four hundred and
eleven thousand dollars barrels a day. What that's mean is
we're seeing the Brent oil price, the futures again, the
(02:52):
forward market, what markets may do overnight in New zeal
And time expecting their oil price to fall by zero
point seven percent, so just under one percent to just
over sixty eight dollars us P barrel and of course
that lower all proce they'd be helpful in tens of
inflation relief, maybe allowing some of those central bankers to
think about cutting rates again.
Speaker 1 (03:09):
Perhaps, Ryan, that'd be nice. Shane, appreciate your time, Shane,
Solly Harbor Asset Management with us for a market rap
for this evening. For more from Hither Duplessy Allen Drive,
listen live to news Talks the'd be from four pm weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio
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