The Huddle: Trump v Harris - who do we think will win?

Tonight on The Huddle, Josie Pagani from Child Fund and Trish Sherson from Sherson Willis PR joined in on a discussion about the following issues of the day - and more!

48 hours to go until the US election - who do we think is going to win? Kamala's pulling ahead in the polls, but is this victory guaranteed? 

Brian and Hannah Tamaki were in court today over their Covid-19 rule breaches during the 2021 lockdown. Should the pair be punished - or should the charges be waived by this point? 

Prime Minister Cjris Luxon is under fire after calling voters 'customers' in a sit-down interview. Is this an embarrassing mistake - or should he own the corporate-speak?

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
The Huddle with New Zealand Southby's International Realty, local and
global exposure like no other.

Speaker 2 (00:06):
Josephgani Child Fund CEO, and Tris Shurson. Shirson Willis pr
with us on the huddle. Hello you two. Hello, all right, Josie,
this is your last call before the US election. Who wins?

Speaker 3 (00:17):
Oh that's not fair, Heather. No one in the world does.
Who's going to win? And you're asking me what I mean?
It is so close, and even with the Iowa poll,
and I heard you talking about that. I mean, it
could be a one off pole. Who knows that? The
thing that makes me think about the Iowa pole though,
which would give a slight advantage to Kamala Harris and
the Democrats. Seltzer, whose pole this is. She's very well respected.

(00:39):
She's a Republican, Polster, an anti Trumper, but a Republican.
She had predicted twenty sixteen when no one else did,
including me. I was on live TV with all my
notes about why Hillary won.

Speaker 2 (00:50):
And you were with me. I was with you, yes,
and I was telling you Trump's one and you were
saying no, you were right.

Speaker 3 (00:55):
You are the Seltzer of New Zealand. So what makes
me think that there's something in this is that her
polling has been so spot on for years and years
and years because she takes the evidence. She's really good poster. So,
you know, three percent advantage in Iowa, which is a
Trump's state for Harris, Now that's so significant. If that

(01:16):
is the case, If she's winning in a Trump state
that we weren't even looking at, if not one of
the swing states, then she's winning everywhere. The state I'll
be looking for on the night though, will be Georgia,
where my family live, and they've all voted early voting.
Possibly one of the first results that we'll get in
meant to go Trump went Democrat last time, which was

(01:36):
a real shocker. If it doesn't go Trump, or even
if Trump wins it by only a little bit, that'll
be a sign like Iowa that Trump's in trouble.

Speaker 2 (01:44):
Okay, what do you reckon, Trish?

Speaker 4 (01:47):
Well, I just I'm going to make prediction, But I
just hope that I will only have to eat my
hat and not the dogs and the cats. So I,
like Josie, I am going to pick Harris. If this
was on the popular vote, you know, I think you

(02:08):
would have to call Harris at this point. And it's
the weirdness of the system, isn't it with the electoral
colleges that Trump has not ever won the popular vote,
So the biggest loser could become once again the biggest winner.
Here's why I'm thinking that that it's Harris. I think
that it's you have to look at who each campaign

(02:31):
has focused on driving out. She is counting on young
women who do vote. He's counting on the young men
or the bros. And then they don't traditionally turn out
to vote. I think there's been a vibe change related
to gender and voter turnout, even over the weekend as
the campaigns have started to see the early data coming in.

(02:52):
And just to that point, you know, I think this
election has shown the old school marcho side of the US,
which has been a bitterly They think they need a
tough guy in the job. And look at his Arnold Palmer,
you know, Dick Dixon of comments. But in these final
days and weeks, I think his language may have pushed

(03:13):
people over the edge. It may have pushed Republicans who
thought they couldn't vote Democrat across the line because he's
too unreliable. Racist, chaotic, misogynistic, I mean, you name the adjective.
So my picks to watch, You've got to watch that
blue triangle Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Nineteen eighty eight was

(03:33):
the last time they didn't vote together. And if one
of them breaks this time, I think that will signify
who's going to win.

Speaker 3 (03:42):
We may not get a result, or in fact, we
won't get a result on the night, and so I
think that's why we're looking at the ones, the results
that come in early, and then reading the tea leafs
on this. But you're right, Trius, I mean, whoever's going
to win will be who gets the voters to turn out.
And traditionally Crats have had a really good turnout machine.
They get their voters out, they know how to do it.

(04:04):
Elon must Con send rockets to Mars. I'm not sure
he can get Missus Jones from High Street out to vote.
It's just not his mojo. And I think the second reason,
if whoever wins, we'll look at it will go whoever
working class people in America voted for will win. There's
still the majority of voters that's not just race. I
mean that's white, black, Hispanic, they're still the majority voters

(04:27):
and they have been swinging to Trump. So I think
it'll depend and those swing states that you just mentioned, Trish,
they are majority voters, eligible voters, and turnout they are
majority working class voters. So whoever's got the economy message
through to people, through to the working class voters, they win.

Speaker 2 (04:45):
America will win. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (04:47):
The huddle with New Zealand Southeby's International Realty elevate the
marketing of your home.

Speaker 2 (04:52):
Right, you're back with Josie and Trish. Trish, what do
you think about Brian and Anatomaki're getting prosecuted right now?

Speaker 4 (04:58):
Well, I'm with you you on this about do we
care in now in twenty twenty four? What I am
more concerned about is that it now takes more than
three years to get these kinds of things to the courts.
And that's you know, that is just another signal.

Speaker 3 (05:15):
Of how jam dates to make a road.

Speaker 4 (05:19):
How jammed up the system is exactly. Look, you know,
the Tuckies they love this. They love a martyr's platform,
so so they getting it. I try to pay zero
attention to the Tarmaquees. Like the Lord, they tend to
move in mysterious ways. But I do, I do, I do,
like you, I still have a lot of PTSD around

(05:43):
that Auckland lockdown. I think you know, I probably droned
on about it ad nausea and when I was locked
in this very room and talking to you throughout that
time was a shocking act of political vandalism in my view,
to keep Auckland lockdown. And you know this is just
a bad reminder.

Speaker 2 (05:59):
Of that too, right, what do you reckon, Josie, Josie
from down country. You didn't have to spend all the
time in the lockdown.

Speaker 3 (06:06):
I spent enough time in lockdowns. Don't lock down up me. Yeah,
I look at it, and well, I was listening to
Luckson's comments about how voters are all customers. I was
just thinking, maybe the solution is like supermarkets when they
put photos of shoplifters up and it's just name and
shame and just say you're out for a while, you're
on notice, go away and you know, I don't know,

(06:28):
hang out in the bush for a while and come
back when we're prepared to see pictures of you again.
I mean, like Trish, I'm just I'm sick of it, really, Yeah,
I mean the problem is there's legal issues, aren't they
around whether obviously, if it was a serious crime, a
delay makes it shouldn't make no difference at all. I
think this is there is an issue here. You would
have to apply it retrospectively. I think you'd have to
apply it to any other case in the courts now

(06:50):
around any lockdown conviction or sentencing, so that.

Speaker 2 (06:54):
It would pandemic if you wiped them. If you wiped
you'd have to.

Speaker 4 (06:58):
Don't you care?

Speaker 3 (06:59):
No, I don't care.

Speaker 2 (07:00):
I don't see any value in prosecuting these people. No, silly,
Let's just get on with it, Okay. Now, Trish, as
to Luxe and calling us customers, what do you think.

Speaker 4 (07:09):
I think he should own this? I don't you know.
I think if you're if you're a PM and you'll
continually being forced to apologize by the media for different
terms you've used either, I think you're in a bad space.
You know, when Luxem was at in New Zealand, they
actually had something called Voice of the Customer, if I

(07:30):
remember correctly, and that is about getting ongoing and direct
feedback from customers about how you're performing, because that's how
you stay in business. And you know, i'd have to say,
as a customer, I probably feel more empowered than I
do as a voter, because as a customer I can
literally take my dollar from this shop or airline who

(07:51):
isn't doing good, and I can take it and I
can spend it over there. As a voter, yes, I
can vote them out every three years, but in the
meantime I have to keep set speed, you know, sending
them my money. So I don't think Luxon should resile
from this. I do disagree slightly on you know, sometimes
the corporate speak doesn't come across well. And I'll give

(08:12):
you an example of that. As a prime minister, sometimes
you'll have you have to talk about stuff that is
really really it's bad. It's bad stuff and people know
it's bad. And when you come in with the sort
of uplifting corporate speak that you know, we're doing a
fantastic job, it just doesn't kind of wash. So I
do think he needs to temper that. But he shouldn't

(08:33):
spend today backing down on, you know, thinking about voters
as customers.

Speaker 2 (08:38):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (08:39):
The problem with this though, is no one went to
war willing to sacrifice their life for the specials at
New World like it just does make us sounds Briscoe Briscoe, Yeah,
or you know your local might a ten. And it
does just bring up this image of nothing, not really passionate,
it's nothing much that you're very excited about, quite transactional.
I think that's a problem for the NETS, that they

(08:59):
might sound a little bit like you know, even the
tax cut was the equivalent of a packet of Huggies.
You know, it sounds like a special offer in your letterbox.
So the second problem with this, and the left and
the right are both guilty of this that if you
treat customers voters like customers, it denies the fact that
we're also producers. We make stuff, right, The relationship isn't
just us buying stuff off the government. It is us

(09:20):
making wealth where wealth creators, where workers were out there
running businesses. So I think it's a it sets a
different framework out that doesn't really help the NETS.

Speaker 2 (09:29):
It's a little bit one.

Speaker 4 (09:30):
I'll tell you the good The good news for the
NETS though today again is Erica Stanford. Look at that
announcement today about getting kids who are struggling with maths,
getting them free tutors to help get them back up
to where they need to be. I think for national
she is a secret weapon. She's the voters, she is
absolutely MVP. But in terms of woman voters, and even

(09:52):
if you look at the press conference today, you know,
once Luxin had done the opening, all eyes were on
Eric Hat and once again, you know, she made a
really excellent job of communicating what's going to happen and
why in the outcomes. So I think she is the
MVP and the secret weapon.

Speaker 2 (10:08):
You're too right, Hey, thank you guys, both of you.
Josie and Trisha huddle this evening.

Speaker 1 (10:12):
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