Two starkly different outcomes from the latest poll numbers.
The latest RNZ Reid Research poll - out this morning - has the right bloc on 46.4, behind the left bloc on 50.3.
But the latest 1 News Verian poll - released last night - has the right bloc on 50-percent, well ahead of the left bloc on 45.
NZ Herald political editor Thomas Coughlan unpacked the implications of what these results showed.
LISTEN ABOVE
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Thomas Coglin, the Herald's political editors, with us A. Thomas,
are you confused by these poles?
Speaker 2 (00:06):
I am? I am two poles one TV and Z
very in last night showing the coalition holding onto power
sixty three seats for the three coalition parties versus fifty
eight are for the opposition parties and the other one
as the r n Z read polls that used to
run on TV three and it basically shows the opposite,
(00:26):
so it's an even narrower margin. But the the three
opposition parties taking power off the coalitions so are quite confusing.
Few trends New Zealand FIRS doing quite well YEP, and
National down. But the rest of it is a bit
wacky racist.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
But as somebody in polling told me today, the one
thing that you can actually see from this is it's
going to be tight, right. There is a like it's
fairly consistent in.
Speaker 2 (00:47):
That, yeah, undred percent. It's a scrap over percentage points
here and there, and I think you see that in
the House. There's a lot of tension every day because
every every tiny percentage point of vote metters. I think
you know, one of the probably one of the more
interesting things I saw and again there are two different
results on this, but the pay equity stuff. The TV
and zall poll on that thirty nine percent of people
(01:10):
actually supported the change are in Z poll and it
slightly differently and got a lower lower number in support.
I think it was down to twenty nine.
Speaker 1 (01:15):
But it's the difference polling. What was the difference in
how they did it?
Speaker 2 (01:19):
I believe it is the specific wording of the question.
I don't actually have the wording that they used, and
I think I readers has gone more online now and
Van Bavarian still uses the mixture of landlines and mobiles. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (01:33):
I tried to find the specific wording of the question
and I couldn't find it. It wasn't published, but it
appeared it was simply were you for or against the overhaul?
Speaker 2 (01:44):
That be that? Right? Yeah, yes, but now I don't
have the wording right in front of me. But I
think TV and Z asked that they might have couched
it and lighted the savings as well. Oh yeah, so
so you might sort of see that vote just thinking oh,
you know, look.
Speaker 1 (02:01):
So once you factor the money and then people go, actually,
that's probably a good idea.
Speaker 2 (02:06):
Yeah, And I don't have the wedding right in front
of me. But you know, it is it is that
context that matters, and I think I do think it
is interesting because you know that that that pay equity
decision was really at the heart of the budget and
if Labor struggled to you know, win voters over about
the fact that that that that that they that labor
(02:26):
believes that decision was the wrong decision, then you know,
if they can't make that argument then but they.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
Haven't, Thomas. They haven't made the argument, have they, Because
both poles are consistent in that support and that the
opposition is only forty five to forty three percent, that's
not a lot.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
Well, yeah, and I think that's sort of the point
I'm trying to make, as I think if labor can't
capitalize on that, and that's a bit of a gift.
If if the government is cutting stuff like PA equity,
that is a gift to the opposition, And if labor
can't capitalize that in a strong way and start posting
you know, a margin, a larger margin ahead of the coalition,
then it does suggest that voters aren't quite you know,
(03:04):
they might not be liking what the government's doing. They
might not like the government. In fact, these polls do
show a lot of dissatisfaction, but they're not quite willing
to roll the dice on someone else.
Speaker 1 (03:13):
Yeah, if you can't run this one home, which as
you say, was an absolute gimmee, then how on earth
are you going to win the election? I think that
that's fair. Now, do you think like me that these
letters sent out to the state owned enterprises telling them
to sharpen up is preparing us for asset sales next term?
Speaker 2 (03:31):
Yes, one hundred percent. That started. This is my personal belief,
but it started on day one when the coalition was
sworn in. There are a lot of underperforming assets in
the in the public sector. So you've got Landcorp, New
Zealand Post are the ones we singled out, and Cordia
and the Story Today. You've also got things like TVNZ.
(03:52):
I don't think TVNZ will be sold though, but there
are a whole lot of assets soees that are still
entirely owned by the government and I would certainly that
National and Act in particular will campaign on selling down
those stakes. I think it's very very likely at the
next election, and I think for that reason, New Zealand
versus is probably going to campaign on forcing national and
acts to retain ownership of them.
Speaker 1 (04:13):
And I reckon, actually the public appetite will be okay
for it, don't you.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
Well, I certainly these letters make a very compelling case
that the return on equity for these these assets is
not very good, that they are not performing, and the
Treasury has made this case time and time and again
that these assets are not performing particularly well compared to
a benchmark private you know, fully privately held company. And
(04:38):
obviously you know the government needs the cash. So so
so you put two and two together and yeah, you
never know that the public might be might be into it.
That said, I mean, the last time I've seen I
saw a poll on asset sales, it wasn't that flash.
And then obviously the Key government did manage to part
privatize the state assets, but the opposition even then was
(05:00):
quite strong enough to trigger that citizens initiated referendum which
which which passed. People didn't want them. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
Actually, fair point that you make, Thomas. Thank you very much,
appreciate it. Thomas Coglan, the Herald's political editor. For more
from Heather Duplessy, Allen Drive, listen live to News Talks.
It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio
Thomas Coglin, the Herald's political editors, with us A. Thomas,
are you confused by these poles?
Speaker 2 (00:06):
I am? I am two poles one TV and Z
very in last night showing the coalition holding onto power
sixty three seats for the three coalition parties versus fifty
eight are for the opposition parties and the other one
as the r n Z read polls that used to
run on TV three and it basically shows the opposite,
(00:26):
so it's an even narrower margin. But the the three
opposition parties taking power off the coalitions so are quite confusing.
Few trends New Zealand FIRS doing quite well YEP, and
National down. But the rest of it is a bit
wacky racist.
Speaker 1 (00:39):
But as somebody in polling told me today, the one
thing that you can actually see from this is it's
going to be tight, right. There is a like it's
fairly consistent in.
Speaker 2 (00:47):
That, yeah, undred percent. It's a scrap over percentage points
here and there, and I think you see that in
the House. There's a lot of tension every day because
every every tiny percentage point of vote metters. I think
you know, one of the probably one of the more
interesting things I saw and again there are two different
results on this, but the pay equity stuff. The TV
and zall poll on that thirty nine percent of people
(01:10):
actually supported the change are in Z poll and it
slightly differently and got a lower lower number in support.
I think it was down to twenty nine.
Speaker 1 (01:15):
But it's the difference polling. What was the difference in
how they did it?
Speaker 2 (01:19):
I believe it is the specific wording of the question.
I don't actually have the wording that they used, and
I think I readers has gone more online now and
Van Bavarian still uses the mixture of landlines and mobiles. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (01:33):
I tried to find the specific wording of the question
and I couldn't find it. It wasn't published, but it
appeared it was simply were you for or against the overhaul?
Speaker 2 (01:44):
That be that? Right? Yeah, yes, but now I don't
have the wording right in front of me. But I
think TV and Z asked that they might have couched
it and lighted the savings as well. Oh yeah, so
so you might sort of see that vote just thinking oh,
you know, look.
Speaker 1 (02:01):
So once you factor the money and then people go, actually,
that's probably a good idea.
Speaker 2 (02:06):
Yeah, And I don't have the wedding right in front
of me. But you know, it is it is that
context that matters, and I think I do think it
is interesting because you know that that that pay equity
decision was really at the heart of the budget and
if Labor struggled to you know, win voters over about
the fact that that that that that they that labor
(02:26):
believes that decision was the wrong decision, then you know,
if they can't make that argument then but they.
Speaker 1 (02:32):
Haven't, Thomas. They haven't made the argument, have they, Because
both poles are consistent in that support and that the
opposition is only forty five to forty three percent, that's
not a lot.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
Well, yeah, and I think that's sort of the point
I'm trying to make, as I think if labor can't
capitalize on that, and that's a bit of a gift.
If if the government is cutting stuff like PA equity,
that is a gift to the opposition, And if labor
can't capitalize that in a strong way and start posting
you know, a margin, a larger margin ahead of the coalition,
then it does suggest that voters aren't quite you know,
(03:04):
they might not be liking what the government's doing. They
might not like the government. In fact, these polls do
show a lot of dissatisfaction, but they're not quite willing
to roll the dice on someone else.
Speaker 1 (03:13):
Yeah, if you can't run this one home, which as
you say, was an absolute gimmee, then how on earth
are you going to win the election? I think that
that's fair. Now, do you think like me that these
letters sent out to the state owned enterprises telling them
to sharpen up is preparing us for asset sales next term?
Speaker 2 (03:31):
Yes, one hundred percent. That started. This is my personal belief,
but it started on day one when the coalition was
sworn in. There are a lot of underperforming assets in
the in the public sector. So you've got Landcorp, New
Zealand Post are the ones we singled out, and Cordia
and the Story Today. You've also got things like TVNZ.
(03:52):
I don't think TVNZ will be sold though, but there
are a whole lot of assets soees that are still
entirely owned by the government and I would certainly that
National and Act in particular will campaign on selling down
those stakes. I think it's very very likely at the
next election, and I think for that reason, New Zealand
versus is probably going to campaign on forcing national and
acts to retain ownership of them.
Speaker 1 (04:13):
And I reckon, actually the public appetite will be okay
for it, don't you.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
Well, I certainly these letters make a very compelling case
that the return on equity for these these assets is
not very good, that they are not performing, and the
Treasury has made this case time and time and again
that these assets are not performing particularly well compared to
a benchmark private you know, fully privately held company. And
(04:38):
obviously you know the government needs the cash. So so
so you put two and two together and yeah, you
never know that the public might be might be into it.
That said, I mean, the last time I've seen I
saw a poll on asset sales, it wasn't that flash.
And then obviously the Key government did manage to part
privatize the state assets, but the opposition even then was
(05:00):
quite strong enough to trigger that citizens initiated referendum which
which which passed. People didn't want them. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
Actually, fair point that you make, Thomas. Thank you very much,
appreciate it. Thomas Coglan, the Herald's political editor. For more
from Heather Duplessy, Allen Drive, listen live to News Talks.
It'd be from four pm weekdays, or follow the podcast
on iHeartRadio
Popular Podcasts
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.
The Joe Rogan Experience
The official podcast of comedian Joe Rogan.
True Crime Tonight
If you eat, sleep, and breathe true crime, TRUE CRIME TONIGHT is serving up your nightly fix. Five nights a week, KT STUDIOS & iHEART RADIO invite listeners to pull up a seat for an unfiltered look at the biggest cases making headlines, celebrity scandals, and the trials everyone is watching. With a mix of expert analysis, hot takes, and listener call-ins, TRUE CRIME TONIGHT goes beyond the headlines to uncover the twists, turns, and unanswered questions that keep us all obsessed—because, at TRUE CRIME TONIGHT, there’s a seat for everyone. Whether breaking down crime scene forensics, scrutinizing serial killers, or debating the most binge-worthy true crime docs, True Crime Tonight is the fresh, fast-paced, and slightly addictive home for true crime lovers.