Thomas Coughlan: NZ Herald political editor on the Government's proposed changes to KiwiSaver

Chris Luxon says National's KiwiSaver election pledge will be a bottom line in coalition negotiations.

National's announced plans to lift default contributions to six percent by 2032.

Employer contributions would increase by half a percent from 2029.

NZ Herald political editor Thomas Coughlan says most of the policy is sound, but he raised concerns over some employers taking the increases out of their workers' pay checks.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Thomas Coglan, the Herald's political editor, is in for Barry Sober,
who's off for the week writing his book.

Speaker 2 (00:04):
Thomas, Hello, here, a good afternoon.

Speaker 1 (00:07):
Now, what do you think of this key we saver announcement?
Seems to me like quite smart politics.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
Yes, I think it's smart politics. I think it's good
policy as well. I mean, the key we saver in
general retirement savings in New Zealand there's a bit of
a dog. It has been a dog since the nineteen
seventies when we when we got rid of the contributory scheme.
We do need to lift it to twelve percent. Obviously,
it's going to be a it will be a bit
of a bumpy ride getting it there. There'll be some
employers who will take that extra that extra point five

(00:34):
percent each year out of your paypacket and the total
remuneration package, which I know you've been talking about today.
So that's something I think I think Labor is probably
going to try and look at. But the rest of
the policy is pretty sound. We need to do it
and for all, for all the bumps along the way,
it's it's probably something that that's worth doing.

Speaker 1 (00:50):
I mean, we need to be honest though that in
the long run, it's going to depress wages, isn't it,
because because they when somebody offers you a job, they
are going to consider the cost of key we saver here.

Speaker 2 (01:00):
Yeah exactly, And I mean, you know you're probably sick
of hearing it from everyone. But the only way to
get wages to grow is productivity, and productivity has been
an absolute turkey in New Zealand for a long time.
So yes, this if this, if we can't get the
productivity question solved, then then this will come from from
people's wages, no question about it.

Speaker 1 (01:18):
I can't imagine anybody is going to vote for National
for it. It's not a vote attractor, it's not necessary.
It's definitely not a vote repellent, is it. Is it
maybe just a credibility policy.

Speaker 2 (01:28):
I do. I think obviously we had those polls that
the EPSOS poll last week which had the questions around
economic management. For National, they do need something to say
on economic management. They are also probably going to run
on raising the superade again because they really have a
fiscal issue there. If they're not raising the superage, then
it's really hard to see how they're going to pay
for public services are going forward because that superade thing

(01:48):
is a real issue, so they need something. If you're
going to lift the superrade, you need to be able
to say, well, look here's what we're doing to try
and and really get some of the heavy lifting off
superannuation national suparation as far as the retirement costco. And
I suppose it is a way of just neutralizing that
question them.

Speaker 1 (02:06):
Yeah, fair point. Okay, Now have you seen this Taxpayer's
Union Curier poll about labor CGT.

Speaker 2 (02:12):
Yes, I have. It's a very interesting poll. So obviously
Labour CGT twenty eight percent on profits made after one
July twenty twenty seven for property excluding the family home
and a bunch of other things. Now, obviously, you know
house prices go up by five six percent of the years,
that is what the forecast is. The inflation rate is
a wee bit lower than that, and usually you know,
two to three percent of the year going forward is

(02:33):
what we're forecasting. So some of the tex, some of
the money that Labour's CGT would bring in, it's just inflation.
So basically the government is clipping the ticket, and the
governments slipping the ticket when it fails to get inflation
under control. So there's a wee bit of a a
perverse incenter of there sixty one percent of New Zealanders
want the text if there were a text for it

(02:55):
only applied to inflation adjusted gains, whereas where student namecent
what real gains, and it's actually labor voters are the
ones who are most against it.

Speaker 1 (03:05):
Okay, Now, do you think at the moment labor is
going for real gains? Do you think that they will
be pressured into adjusting it and going for inflation adjusted I.

Speaker 2 (03:15):
Do not think so. I think I think they need
the money labor, labor labor. At the moment their election
policy lots to be. It's a very cost of living
affordability affordability mandate. And so you're looking at GP visits.
You know, who knows they might slap dental here onto
that med card. They've got a few other things onto
that medic card. They are kind of looking at things

(03:38):
and thinking, how can we make that cheat for people?
How can we make that free for people? That probably
meant in the most cases, means subsidies. And if you
are going to subsidize stuff, then you've got to text
people to pay for it. And so they really need
this revenue coming in and they cannot afford to reduce it.
And let's face it, if you were to take some
inflation inflation off your CDT, then you probably going to

(04:00):
have the revenue because we're not expecting massive house price
breath anymore. That is a thing of the past. So
if you're not taking inflation, then there's really not a
lovely if they're for you.

Speaker 1 (04:08):
Okay, listen, I see that you've written over the weekend
like I have about the you know, the chatter about
Luckson's leadership. What do you think, Thomas, what's the most
likely outcome. Are the MP's in national going to choose
to stick with Labor with Luckson sorry, or are they
going to choose to switch to Bishop.

Speaker 2 (04:25):
What's a bit of a Freudian slip there, I guess,
like if you're stick with Luxon, now you're sticking with Labor.
I know, a real question, I know, but you know,
if it's what everyone is thinking, it's I honestly think
he might be quite lucky with the timing. If you
are going to Roland, then you probably want to do
it the side of Christmas. You've probably only got two
more public poles. The side of Christmas. You've got the
Textpayers Union in December and they'll probably be elit to

(04:47):
Torbert Mills. Now, those poles would have to be really,
really bad, and you know, well really bad, being worse
than they already are. They would have to be really
bad for you to justify rolling them. I think at
the moment there's a little bit of kite fl going on.
It doesn't look like there's a formal coup, it doesn't
look like anything is actually sort of happening, but I
think there is a bit of chin stroking and people

(05:09):
sort of saying, well, you know, if there were to
be a leadership change, if you were to imagine Chris
Bishop in the ninth floor suite, what would you think
of that? And I think people are sort of flying
kites just to sort of see how that looks without
it actually being a genuine.

Speaker 1 (05:24):
Thing, right, Thomas. Thank you, Thomas Coglan The Herald's political
letters Up.

Speaker 2 (05:28):
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