Jack Tame: The qualities that define the US Presidential race

Who’s gonna win?  

How I wish I could tell you. But from here in the heart of Washington DC I’m happy to be humble. I think anyone who says with supreme confidence or with certainty that they know who the next President of the United States is gonna be, is just blagging.   

I’ve spent the week on the road. I’ve been through parts of Arizona, Georgia, New York, and DC. From a Donald Trump rally in Atlanta to Kamala Harris’ Closing Argument in front of the White House.   

I’ve spoken with African American voters backing Donald Trump, new migrants voting for the first time, abortion rights advocates, business owners, a cryptocurrency organiser, and a professor of constitutional law.   

One of the consistent qualities is how exhausted people are by the whole thing. They’re so ready for this race to be over. Here’s what I think could be the qualities that ultimately define the race: 

1) The gender divide. There is a 16-17 point difference between male and female preferences in this election. More than 60 million votes have already been cast and, given we still have a weekend before election day, it seems highly likely that more than half of voters will cast ballots before Wednesday.   

Here’s why that’s notable: of the votes cast so far, women are voting at much high levels than men. It’s about 55% vs 45%.   

A married couple who are really good friends of mine experience this first hand. He loves Trump. She loathes him. They just agree to mostly avoid talking politics at home. Something similar must be playing out in tens of thousands of American households.   

Donald Trump’s strategy relies on turning out a lot of young men – hence the bro podcasts, the UFC, the embracing of crypto and Elon Musk. This is risky, in that young men belong to the demographic most likely not to vote. But I’ve been doing this long enough to know that Donald Trump has made a real habit of bucking conventional wisdom in politics.   

2) The economy always factors in people’s choices, but aside from that and aside from Donald Trump’s character... there are two highly motivating issues in this election. One is the border security and immigration, the other is abortion access. If you go to the rallies or hear the candidates speak, Trump absolutely hammers the border issue and Kamala Harris hammers reproductive rights.  

3) The polls. I told myself in 2016 I wouldn’t trust the polls again. I told myself in 2020 I wouldn’t trust the polls again. The problem is the pollsters don’t release their modelling. How do they account for Donald Trump’s support among young men if young men don’t usually vote in the same numbers as other demographics? If people misled pollsters by telling them they were supporting Hillary when they were really supporting Trump, will they do that again? Or has Trump shame passed as a notable phenomenon? Right now, Kamala Harris is doing worse in the polls than Hillary Clinton and worse than Joe Biden, but is there a chance the pollsters have overcorrected?   

The election is Wednesday. I think it’s pretty unlikely we’ll have a result that day and it’ll take time before either Harris or Trump is officially the President-elect. Regardless of who wins, I think, sadly, the American electorate is going to remain bitterly divided.   

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:07):
You're listening to the Saturday Morning with Jack Team podcast
from News Talks AB.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
Who's Gonna Win? H How I wish I could tell
you from here in the heart of Washington, d C.
I am happy to be humble this morning. I really
think that anyone who says with supreme confidence or with
a sense of certainty that they know who the next
president of the US is going to be is honestly

(00:36):
just blagging. I don't think anyone knows. But it's interesting.
I have spent the last week on the road, so
I've been through parts of Arizona. I've been through Georgia,
New York, and DC. From a Donald Trump rally in
Atlanta to Kamala Harris's closing argument in front of the
White House. Now, I've spoken with African American voters backing

(00:57):
Donald Trump, new migrant voters voting for the first time,
abortion rights advocates, business owners, a cryptocurrency organizer, and a
professor constitutional law. And I think one of the consistent
qualities across all of those people is just how exhausted
people in the US are by the whole thing. They

(01:17):
are so ready for this race to be over. But
here is what I think could be the qualities that
ultimately define the contest. Number One I reckon this is
a massive one to watch. The gender divide. So at
the moment there is a sixteen or seventeen point difference
between male and female preferences in this election. More than

(01:40):
sixty million votes have already been cast, and given that
we still have a weekend here in the US before
election day, it seems very likely that more than half
of voters will cast ballots before Wednesday. And here's why
that's notable. Of the votes cast so far, women are
voting at much higher levels than men. It's about fifty

(02:01):
five percent of early votes have been cast by women,
forty five percent by men. Yeah, a married couple who
are really good friends of mine experience this firsthand. So
he loves Donald Trump. She absolutely loathes him. They can't
of just agree to mostly avoid talking politics at home,
but something similar must be playing out in tens of
thousands of American households. Donald Trump's strategy relies on turning

(02:26):
out heaps of young men, hence the bro podcasts that
he's been doing, Hence his attendance at UFC Fight Night,
The embracing of cryptocurrency and Elon Musk, and you'd have
to say it is a risky strategy in that young
men belong to the demographic that is most likely not
to vote. But look, I've been doing this long enough

(02:49):
to know that Donald Trump has made a real habit
of bucking conventional wisdom and politics. Number two, the economy
always factors in people's choices. But aside from that, and
aside from Donald Trump's character, there are two highly motivating
issues in the election. Number one is border security and immigration,

(03:10):
and number two is abortion access. If you go to
the rallies or you hear the candidates speak, Donald Trump
absolutely hammers the border issue. Similarly, Carmala Harris absolutely hammers
reproductive rights. Both of those figure that those are highly
motivating issues for their voter bases. And the third factor
that I think we should keep an eye on over

(03:32):
the next couple of days, or at the very least
keep in mind is the polls. Now. Look, I told
myself in twenty sixteen that I would not trust the
polls in the US. Again. I told myself in twenty
twenty that I would not trust the polls again, and
here we are the problem is that the polsters don't
release their modeling. So how do you account for Donald
Trump's support among young men if young men don't usually

(03:54):
vote in the same numbers as other demographics. If people
have mislead polsters in the past by telling them, yeah,
they were supporting Hillary Clinton or they were supporting Joe Biden,
when actually they were voting for Donald Trump, will they
do that again this year? Or has that sense of
embarrassment or shame or whatever it was with Donald Trump

(04:15):
in the past. Is that a phenomenon that no longer
exists Right now? Krmala Harris is doing worse in the
polls than Hillary Clinton was doing at the stage of
the race, worse than Joe Biden was doing at the
same point. But is there a chance that the polsters
have over corrected in their models. The election is this Wednesday,
New Zealand time, I reckon it is pretty unlikely that

(04:38):
we will have a definitive result on that day, and
it's going to take time before either Karmala Harris or
Donald Trump is officially the president elect. But regardless of
who wins, I think, sadly, having traveled around this country,
that the American electorate is going to remain is going
to remain Bitterly Divided.

Speaker 1 (05:00):
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