May 25, 2025 • 5 mins
New Zealand's economic recovery is now forecast to be slower than the half year update.
Unemployment is slated to peak at 5.4 percent in the June quarter.
Job ads in April increased for the second consecutive month, this time by 1.1 percent.
LISTEN ABOVE.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
From JMI Wealth Andrew kellerher welcome back.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
It's good to be back, Mike.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Always retail spending will talk about shortly, but tied in
with that as jobs. Do I see some life in
the jobs?
Speaker 3 (00:11):
Mike?
Speaker 1 (00:12):
Can I be slightly optimistic or not?
Speaker 3 (00:14):
Well, you're an optimistic guy, Mike, So I think there's
a you know, there's ways of looking at this. The
more conservative approach is stabilization. But yeah, now now that
the excitement of the budgets and the rearview rearview mirror,
we can sort of continue the postgame analysis that of
course of the week. But there was data released on
Friday which gives us signals about the sort of state.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Of the nation.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
One of them was this BE and Z seek Employment report. Now,
just in talking about that budget, Mike, within within in
addition to the budget itself, you've got treasuries, budgets, economic
and fiscal update. There's one hundred and sixty one pages
of joy in there and lots of forecasts. So we
could spend the next ten fifteen minutes talking about this.
But the economic crovery is now forecast to be slower
(00:59):
than it the half year update, and in the forecast
unemployment is slated to peak at five point four percent
in the June quarter.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Then it is is gradually over ensuing years to four
point three percent. So we're right in the NADIA. We're
right in the low point of employment right now MIC
according to that.
Speaker 3 (01:18):
So the Bnztzek report it has the title signs of stabilization.
So job ads increased one point one percent in April.
That is the second consecutive month that they have increased.
I think a conservative core market would be too early
to call the bounce. But what you can say is
the employment market doesn't seem to be getting worse. We're
(01:40):
so we are though, look if I look at the start,
they might coming off a very low base. So job
ads are still nine point six percent below levels from
a year ago, and if you look back to twenty
twenty two, we are still forty eight percent below the
number of job ads there. And there's also a shift
you can see within the DARTA mark. There's a shift
from full time work to part homework you can.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
See in the jobs.
Speaker 3 (02:01):
And that's what people do when when the employment market
starts to get a little bit tighty and move people
to part time.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
Okay, optimism question number two bitter spending.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
Yeah, more money, more money. So retail retails down the dumps,
isn't it?
Speaker 3 (02:13):
Along with HOSPO and the anecdotal evidence and company evidence
seems to reinforce the green shoots in these areas are
hard to find. So yes, it was a little surprising
in a good sense to see better than expected retail
trade numbers released on Friday by statsn' z.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
So these are quarterly numbers.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
This adds to the picture the millieure that we get
from the monthly electronic card transaction data.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
Retail trade volumes lifted zero point eight percent.
Speaker 3 (02:38):
Quarter on quarter, stronger than the local economists had expected,
so consensus they're looking at little or no move. The
previous quarter was also revised up, albeit very small, from
zero point nine.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
Percent to one percent.
Speaker 3 (02:51):
Now, look, retail trade, it isn't the biggest contributor to GDP,
I think is less than ten percent, but this number
is moving in the right direction. Yearly tail trade volumes
increased by zero point seven percent. Also, MIKE seems to
be a relatively broad based across sectors and regions, so
ten out of fifteen categories have seen increases in volumes.
Speaker 2 (03:11):
Just a wee damp.
Speaker 3 (03:12):
Now, I don't mean to rain on the parade, but
core retail was only up zero point four percent, which
is not exactly frothy, But there are some there's some
pockets of light in the discretionary spending clothing, footwear, specialized food.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
And we keep saying it might.
Speaker 3 (03:26):
We keep saying that effect of lower mortgage rates slowly
feeding where through their way through the New Zealand households
should provide support for spending over the second half of
twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
But we're waiting. We're we're just waiting for that to
show up in the data.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
Speaking of spending from the budget, would you if you
can write it off? Is this where we're heading with us?
Speaker 2 (03:46):
Sorry? In what sense?
Speaker 1 (03:47):
The investment boost?
Speaker 2 (03:49):
The investment boost?
Speaker 3 (03:50):
Yeah, Look, so I was in Sydney last week, got
back Friday night and catching up on the budget over
the weekend. This investment boost seems to be the seems
to be the key talking point, doesn't it. Lots of
comments over the weekend. I just want to make a
couple of very quick comments.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Mike. The cost to the government is in the form
of lower tax revenue.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
The government doesn't actually pay out anything, and that seems
to be a little bit of a misconception.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
Scope is very wide, captures.
Speaker 3 (04:14):
Many many areas of spend no cap But Mike, remember
if business is able to claim a big depreciation expense spence.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
What have they done.
Speaker 3 (04:23):
They have invested a lot of money and that is
beneficial to the local economy. Should be a talent to
companies looking to commit capital expenditure.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
It should improve confidence and that is critical.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Fingers cross numbers please.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
The Dow Jones fell turnured and fifty six points trump
more sort of tariff dramas there so took a bit
of the window of the sales of the market forty
one thousand, six hundred and three down point six percent
than as it was also downpoint and as it was
down one percent actually eighteen thousand, seven hundred and thirty seven,
and the S and P five hundred down points sixty
seven of a percent, the forty one hundred down twenty one.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Eight seven one seven a couter percent fall.
Speaker 3 (05:01):
The Nikke just gained half percent actually point four seven,
one hundred and seventy five points thirty seven thousand, one
hundred and sixty The Shanghai composite down just under one percent,
the A six two hundred gain to twelve points on Friday,
up fifteen point one five percent eight three six oh,
the N six fifty down sixty six points on Friday
twelve thousand, five hundred and ninety six one Kiwi dollar
(05:23):
will get your point five nine seven three against the
US point nine one seven seven OZSI point five to
sixty two against the Euro point four four o six
pounds eighty five point one at Japanese end. Gold is
still strong three thousand, three hundred and fifty seven dollars
and fifty one cents and Brent crude sixty four dollars
and seventy eight cents. Good.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
Have you back, Andrew kellaher Joemowels dot co dot m Z.
For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to
News Talk z B from six am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio
From JMI Wealth Andrew kellerher welcome back.
Speaker 2 (00:04):
It's good to be back, Mike.
Speaker 1 (00:05):
Always retail spending will talk about shortly, but tied in
with that as jobs. Do I see some life in
the jobs?
Speaker 3 (00:11):
Mike?
Speaker 1 (00:12):
Can I be slightly optimistic or not?
Speaker 3 (00:14):
Well, you're an optimistic guy, Mike, So I think there's
a you know, there's ways of looking at this. The
more conservative approach is stabilization. But yeah, now now that
the excitement of the budgets and the rearview rearview mirror,
we can sort of continue the postgame analysis that of
course of the week. But there was data released on
Friday which gives us signals about the sort of state.
Speaker 2 (00:35):
Of the nation.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
One of them was this BE and Z seek Employment report. Now,
just in talking about that budget, Mike, within within in
addition to the budget itself, you've got treasuries, budgets, economic
and fiscal update. There's one hundred and sixty one pages
of joy in there and lots of forecasts. So we
could spend the next ten fifteen minutes talking about this.
But the economic crovery is now forecast to be slower
(00:59):
than it the half year update, and in the forecast
unemployment is slated to peak at five point four percent
in the June quarter.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Then it is is gradually over ensuing years to four
point three percent. So we're right in the NADIA. We're
right in the low point of employment right now MIC
according to that.
Speaker 3 (01:18):
So the Bnztzek report it has the title signs of stabilization.
So job ads increased one point one percent in April.
That is the second consecutive month that they have increased.
I think a conservative core market would be too early
to call the bounce. But what you can say is
the employment market doesn't seem to be getting worse. We're
(01:40):
so we are though, look if I look at the start,
they might coming off a very low base. So job
ads are still nine point six percent below levels from
a year ago, and if you look back to twenty
twenty two, we are still forty eight percent below the
number of job ads there. And there's also a shift
you can see within the DARTA mark. There's a shift
from full time work to part homework you can.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
See in the jobs.
Speaker 3 (02:01):
And that's what people do when when the employment market
starts to get a little bit tighty and move people
to part time.
Speaker 1 (02:06):
Okay, optimism question number two bitter spending.
Speaker 2 (02:09):
Yeah, more money, more money. So retail retails down the dumps,
isn't it?
Speaker 3 (02:13):
Along with HOSPO and the anecdotal evidence and company evidence
seems to reinforce the green shoots in these areas are
hard to find. So yes, it was a little surprising
in a good sense to see better than expected retail
trade numbers released on Friday by statsn' z.
Speaker 2 (02:28):
So these are quarterly numbers.
Speaker 3 (02:30):
This adds to the picture the millieure that we get
from the monthly electronic card transaction data.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
Retail trade volumes lifted zero point eight percent.
Speaker 3 (02:38):
Quarter on quarter, stronger than the local economists had expected,
so consensus they're looking at little or no move. The
previous quarter was also revised up, albeit very small, from
zero point nine.
Speaker 2 (02:50):
Percent to one percent.
Speaker 3 (02:51):
Now, look, retail trade, it isn't the biggest contributor to GDP,
I think is less than ten percent, but this number
is moving in the right direction. Yearly tail trade volumes
increased by zero point seven percent. Also, MIKE seems to
be a relatively broad based across sectors and regions, so
ten out of fifteen categories have seen increases in volumes.
Speaker 2 (03:11):
Just a wee damp.
Speaker 3 (03:12):
Now, I don't mean to rain on the parade, but
core retail was only up zero point four percent, which
is not exactly frothy, But there are some there's some
pockets of light in the discretionary spending clothing, footwear, specialized food.
Speaker 2 (03:25):
And we keep saying it might.
Speaker 3 (03:26):
We keep saying that effect of lower mortgage rates slowly
feeding where through their way through the New Zealand households
should provide support for spending over the second half of
twenty twenty five.
Speaker 2 (03:36):
But we're waiting. We're we're just waiting for that to
show up in the data.
Speaker 1 (03:40):
Speaking of spending from the budget, would you if you
can write it off? Is this where we're heading with us?
Speaker 2 (03:46):
Sorry? In what sense?
Speaker 1 (03:47):
The investment boost?
Speaker 2 (03:49):
The investment boost?
Speaker 3 (03:50):
Yeah, Look, so I was in Sydney last week, got
back Friday night and catching up on the budget over
the weekend. This investment boost seems to be the seems
to be the key talking point, doesn't it. Lots of
comments over the weekend. I just want to make a
couple of very quick comments.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Mike. The cost to the government is in the form
of lower tax revenue.
Speaker 3 (04:08):
The government doesn't actually pay out anything, and that seems
to be a little bit of a misconception.
Speaker 2 (04:12):
Scope is very wide, captures.
Speaker 3 (04:14):
Many many areas of spend no cap But Mike, remember
if business is able to claim a big depreciation expense spence.
Speaker 2 (04:22):
What have they done.
Speaker 3 (04:23):
They have invested a lot of money and that is
beneficial to the local economy. Should be a talent to
companies looking to commit capital expenditure.
Speaker 2 (04:32):
It should improve confidence and that is critical.
Speaker 1 (04:35):
Fingers cross numbers please.
Speaker 3 (04:37):
The Dow Jones fell turnured and fifty six points trump
more sort of tariff dramas there so took a bit
of the window of the sales of the market forty
one thousand, six hundred and three down point six percent
than as it was also downpoint and as it was
down one percent actually eighteen thousand, seven hundred and thirty seven,
and the S and P five hundred down points sixty
seven of a percent, the forty one hundred down twenty one.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
Eight seven one seven a couter percent fall.
Speaker 3 (05:01):
The Nikke just gained half percent actually point four seven,
one hundred and seventy five points thirty seven thousand, one
hundred and sixty The Shanghai composite down just under one percent,
the A six two hundred gain to twelve points on Friday,
up fifteen point one five percent eight three six oh,
the N six fifty down sixty six points on Friday
twelve thousand, five hundred and ninety six one Kiwi dollar
(05:23):
will get your point five nine seven three against the
US point nine one seven seven OZSI point five to
sixty two against the Euro point four four o six
pounds eighty five point one at Japanese end. Gold is
still strong three thousand, three hundred and fifty seven dollars
and fifty one cents and Brent crude sixty four dollars
and seventy eight cents. Good.
Speaker 1 (05:43):
Have you back, Andrew kellaher Joemowels dot co dot m Z.
For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to
News Talk z B from six am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio
Popular Podcasts
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Amy Robach & T.J. Holmes present: Aubrey O’Day, Covering the Diddy Trial
Introducing… Aubrey O’Day Diddy’s former protege, television personality, platinum selling music artist, Danity Kane alum Aubrey O’Day joins veteran journalists Amy Robach and TJ Holmes to provide a unique perspective on the trial that has captivated the attention of the nation. Join them throughout the trial as they discuss, debate, and dissect every detail, every aspect of the proceedings. Aubrey will offer her opinions and expertise, as only she is qualified to do given her first-hand knowledge. From her days on Making the Band, as she emerged as the breakout star, the truth of the situation would be the opposite of the glitz and glamour. Listen throughout every minute of the trial, for this exclusive coverage. Amy Robach and TJ Holmes present Aubrey O’Day, Covering the Diddy Trial, an iHeartRadio podcast.
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.