Non-farm payrolls - a monthly statistic released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, shows concerns over the Trump administrations policy blitz.
In April 177,000 jobs were added to the US economy and unemployment rates are stable at 4.2 percent.
But business and consumer surveys are still sending warning signals.
Andrew Kelleher of JMI breaks down the data with Mike Hosking.
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
From Joy and my wealth Andrew Kella have very good
Monday morning.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
Very good morning, Mike.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
You have the jobs and I was I think they
were better than expected to stay side, weren't they?
Speaker 2 (00:07):
They were?
Speaker 3 (00:08):
But before we start that, you know we'd finished last
week with feel Good Friday, didn't we?
Speaker 2 (00:13):
That did carry over the weekend?
Speaker 3 (00:14):
Now, I know you would have been glued to the
Warriors and the Miami GP.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
But what else was on over the weekend?
Speaker 1 (00:20):
How about that? Do you believe that he was I
assume we're talking about the same thing. Do you believe
that Abel was on stage not knowing?
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Can you believe that?
Speaker 3 (00:30):
So this is the Berkshire Hathway AGM, and Warren Buffett
has still down but he announced it at the AGM
and he hadn't told the guy. That's absolutely brilliant. But
you can do that sort of stuff when you're ninety
four years old, can't you?
Speaker 2 (00:41):
I reckon?
Speaker 1 (00:42):
And do you reckon? He really drinks all that Coca
cola or that's just a thing now?
Speaker 3 (00:46):
No, I don't think he probably does. I mean, well,
if he isn't, he's been consistently lying about it for
about sixty years. So yes, I guess he does anyway. Anyway,
let's get onto non farm pails. So big news Friday,
non farm praier. It's lots of concern about the impact
of the policy blitz that we've seen from the Trump
administration in the first one hundred days. Also, there's a
(01:06):
reason why Trump can't do three terms because he'll be pope.
So how can you do three terms if he's pope? Anyway,
So got this policy blitz in the first one hundred days. Now,
the Business consumer surveys, that's soft data. They're sending warning signals.
But we need to look at the hard data as well,
not just what people think. Now, non farm payrolls is
a piece of hard data. What's happening in the laid
(01:27):
mark and the key takeaway if you want to impress
all your mates at work today, you've just said it.
They were stronger than expected. So in April they added
one hundred and seventy seven thousand jobs to the US
economy with expectation around one hundred and thirty eight So
an easy beat there.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
The prior two.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
Months were revised a little bit lower. Are unemployment rates
stable at four point two percent, which doesn't sound terrible.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
Is it.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
Participation rates sixty two point six ticked up from sixty
two point five. Not a huge move, but significant when
you're looking at such a large population. Average hourly earnings
rose zero point two percent, Wages up three point eight
percent year on years, so mildly eased from previous month.
Added quite a few jobs in healthcare fifty one thousand jobs.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
Interesting.
Speaker 3 (02:08):
Federal government actually added nine thousand jobs in April despite
doze that year. Today you have seen twenty six thousand
jobs shared from the federal government. Few comments might you
are not seeing any sign yet of a negative impact
on the jobs market from trade policy induced uncertainty, But.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
As I said last week, you have to be.
Speaker 3 (02:29):
Very careful I think about drawing any firm or medium
term conclusions from these current data points. I think it
seems reasonable to expect it's in the next few months
when we'll see the material impacts, particularly in things.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
Like dose those jobs.
Speaker 3 (02:43):
A lot of those federal employees are they're on furlough,
I'll think of what they call it, So we're not
going to see that in the numbers yet. Also, there
was actually that surgeon importing that we saw in the US.
Speaker 2 (02:54):
Now there is some speculation that.
Speaker 3 (02:56):
That added a little bit to the labor force because
people have to work, so I think areas like transportation
early days.
Speaker 2 (03:03):
Yet keep let's keep an eye on all of this.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
OK, what about the recovery on.
Speaker 2 (03:07):
Recovery on so non fum payer I was aware.
Speaker 3 (03:09):
Received, but that's really just part of the bigger picture
of the whole.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
Of last week. Yes, recovery continues.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
US share market indexes are now setting records, Mike, given
the headlines that you've been seeing, you wouldn't have thought
the records were positive ones.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
But the S and P five hundred is on a
winning streak.
Speaker 3 (03:26):
So April, Mike, April share market performs that was just
a bad dream.
Speaker 2 (03:30):
Forget about that.
Speaker 3 (03:31):
The S and P five hundred has now risen for
nine consecutive days and, as I said, the longest winning
streak in the last twenty years. So it's recovered all
the ground that we've seen since the infamous April the
second Rose Garden tariff announcement. So the end result, I
mean in April, the S and P five hundred actually
fell zero point six eight percent, so it barely move,
but just a heck of.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
A round trip.
Speaker 3 (03:52):
In the background of fifteen percent fall and recovery in
New Zealand dollars, though, Mike, you would have lost just
over five percent because the big currency moves as well,
Keys gained in value. That reduces the value of your
offshore holdings. But also feeding into this positive energy over
the week, you might is there a thawing in the
US China trade stand off? Some cryptic comments out of
(04:13):
China over the weekend. We'll see how that develops this week.
And the only negative on Friday was a bit of
a bit of a lift in US ten year treasury rates.
Speaker 2 (04:20):
They went up about nine basis points. That could be significant.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
I need some numbers, O, I'll give you them here
we are.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Everything's positive.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
The Dow jones up one point three nine percent close
the week at forty one thy three hundred and seventeen,
the S and P five hundred just to shade off
one and a half percent gain there, closing at five
six eight six, and the NASDAK up one and a
half percent, closing at seventeen thousand, nine hundred and seventy seven,
just a sliver off the eighteen thousand mark. The forty
one hundred gained over one percent eight five nine six,
(04:49):
the Nike gained over one percent thirty six eight hundred
and thirty.
Speaker 2 (04:53):
The Chinese market's still on holiday. The Aussie's gained.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
One point one to three percent on Friday eight to
three eight leading into the election.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
That was ninety two point game there and the insects.
Speaker 3 (05:03):
Fifty one point four eight percent one hundred and seventy
nine points twelve thy three hundred and twenty eight Kiwi
dollar against the US point five nine thirty nine point
nine two o two against the ossie point five two
five nine, Euro point four four six eight against the pound,
eighty six point oh three. Japanese yen gold coming off
a little bit three thousand, two hundred and forty dollars
(05:23):
and Brent crew is still quite low sixty one dollars
and twenty nine cents.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
You have an excellent day. Catchup tomorrow, Andrew Kelliherjomiwealth dot
co dot m Z. For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast,
listen live to news Talks at b from six am weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio
From Joy and my wealth Andrew Kella have very good
Monday morning.
Speaker 2 (00:03):
Very good morning, Mike.
Speaker 1 (00:04):
You have the jobs and I was I think they
were better than expected to stay side, weren't they?
Speaker 2 (00:07):
They were?
Speaker 3 (00:08):
But before we start that, you know we'd finished last
week with feel Good Friday, didn't we?
Speaker 2 (00:13):
That did carry over the weekend?
Speaker 3 (00:14):
Now, I know you would have been glued to the
Warriors and the Miami GP.
Speaker 2 (00:18):
But what else was on over the weekend?
Speaker 1 (00:20):
How about that? Do you believe that he was I
assume we're talking about the same thing. Do you believe
that Abel was on stage not knowing?
Speaker 2 (00:29):
Can you believe that?
Speaker 3 (00:30):
So this is the Berkshire Hathway AGM, and Warren Buffett
has still down but he announced it at the AGM
and he hadn't told the guy. That's absolutely brilliant. But
you can do that sort of stuff when you're ninety
four years old, can't you?
Speaker 2 (00:41):
I reckon?
Speaker 1 (00:42):
And do you reckon? He really drinks all that Coca
cola or that's just a thing now?
Speaker 3 (00:46):
No, I don't think he probably does. I mean, well,
if he isn't, he's been consistently lying about it for
about sixty years. So yes, I guess he does anyway. Anyway,
let's get onto non farm pails. So big news Friday,
non farm praier. It's lots of concern about the impact
of the policy blitz that we've seen from the Trump
administration in the first one hundred days. Also, there's a
(01:06):
reason why Trump can't do three terms because he'll be pope.
So how can you do three terms if he's pope? Anyway,
So got this policy blitz in the first one hundred days. Now,
the Business consumer surveys, that's soft data. They're sending warning signals.
But we need to look at the hard data as well,
not just what people think. Now, non farm payrolls is
a piece of hard data. What's happening in the laid
(01:27):
mark and the key takeaway if you want to impress
all your mates at work today, you've just said it.
They were stronger than expected. So in April they added
one hundred and seventy seven thousand jobs to the US
economy with expectation around one hundred and thirty eight So
an easy beat there.
Speaker 2 (01:41):
The prior two.
Speaker 3 (01:42):
Months were revised a little bit lower. Are unemployment rates
stable at four point two percent, which doesn't sound terrible.
Speaker 2 (01:47):
Is it.
Speaker 3 (01:48):
Participation rates sixty two point six ticked up from sixty
two point five. Not a huge move, but significant when
you're looking at such a large population. Average hourly earnings
rose zero point two percent, Wages up three point eight
percent year on years, so mildly eased from previous month.
Added quite a few jobs in healthcare fifty one thousand jobs.
Speaker 2 (02:07):
Interesting.
Speaker 3 (02:08):
Federal government actually added nine thousand jobs in April despite
doze that year. Today you have seen twenty six thousand
jobs shared from the federal government. Few comments might you
are not seeing any sign yet of a negative impact
on the jobs market from trade policy induced uncertainty, But.
Speaker 2 (02:26):
As I said last week, you have to be.
Speaker 3 (02:29):
Very careful I think about drawing any firm or medium
term conclusions from these current data points. I think it
seems reasonable to expect it's in the next few months
when we'll see the material impacts, particularly in things.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
Like dose those jobs.
Speaker 3 (02:43):
A lot of those federal employees are they're on furlough,
I'll think of what they call it, So we're not
going to see that in the numbers yet. Also, there
was actually that surgeon importing that we saw in the US.
Speaker 2 (02:54):
Now there is some speculation that.
Speaker 3 (02:56):
That added a little bit to the labor force because
people have to work, so I think areas like transportation
early days.
Speaker 2 (03:03):
Yet keep let's keep an eye on all of this.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
OK, what about the recovery on.
Speaker 2 (03:07):
Recovery on so non fum payer I was aware.
Speaker 3 (03:09):
Received, but that's really just part of the bigger picture
of the whole.
Speaker 2 (03:12):
Of last week. Yes, recovery continues.
Speaker 3 (03:15):
US share market indexes are now setting records, Mike, given
the headlines that you've been seeing, you wouldn't have thought
the records were positive ones.
Speaker 2 (03:23):
But the S and P five hundred is on a
winning streak.
Speaker 3 (03:26):
So April, Mike, April share market performs that was just
a bad dream.
Speaker 2 (03:30):
Forget about that.
Speaker 3 (03:31):
The S and P five hundred has now risen for
nine consecutive days and, as I said, the longest winning
streak in the last twenty years. So it's recovered all
the ground that we've seen since the infamous April the
second Rose Garden tariff announcement. So the end result, I
mean in April, the S and P five hundred actually
fell zero point six eight percent, so it barely move,
but just a heck of.
Speaker 2 (03:50):
A round trip.
Speaker 3 (03:52):
In the background of fifteen percent fall and recovery in
New Zealand dollars, though, Mike, you would have lost just
over five percent because the big currency moves as well,
Keys gained in value. That reduces the value of your
offshore holdings. But also feeding into this positive energy over
the week, you might is there a thawing in the
US China trade stand off? Some cryptic comments out of
(04:13):
China over the weekend. We'll see how that develops this week.
And the only negative on Friday was a bit of
a bit of a lift in US ten year treasury rates.
Speaker 2 (04:20):
They went up about nine basis points. That could be significant.
Speaker 1 (04:23):
I need some numbers, O, I'll give you them here
we are.
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Everything's positive.
Speaker 3 (04:27):
The Dow jones up one point three nine percent close
the week at forty one thy three hundred and seventeen,
the S and P five hundred just to shade off
one and a half percent gain there, closing at five
six eight six, and the NASDAK up one and a
half percent, closing at seventeen thousand, nine hundred and seventy seven,
just a sliver off the eighteen thousand mark. The forty
one hundred gained over one percent eight five nine six,
(04:49):
the Nike gained over one percent thirty six eight hundred
and thirty.
Speaker 2 (04:53):
The Chinese market's still on holiday. The Aussie's gained.
Speaker 3 (04:56):
One point one to three percent on Friday eight to
three eight leading into the election.
Speaker 2 (05:00):
That was ninety two point game there and the insects.
Speaker 3 (05:03):
Fifty one point four eight percent one hundred and seventy
nine points twelve thy three hundred and twenty eight Kiwi
dollar against the US point five nine thirty nine point
nine two o two against the ossie point five two
five nine, Euro point four four six eight against the pound,
eighty six point oh three. Japanese yen gold coming off
a little bit three thousand, two hundred and forty dollars
(05:23):
and Brent crew is still quite low sixty one dollars
and twenty nine cents.
Speaker 1 (05:27):
You have an excellent day. Catchup tomorrow, Andrew Kelliherjomiwealth dot
co dot m Z. For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast,
listen live to news Talks at b from six am weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio
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