Cameron Bagrie: Independent Economist on the public service numbers

The number of public servants working within Government is down slightly on this time last year.  

But new Public Service data shows measured against last quarter, the number of civil servants has increased.  

The data shows there were 63,238 people employed by the Government as of March this year – 2045 fewer people compared to March 2024, but an increase of 269 on the last quarter.  

Economist Cameron Bagrie told Mike Hosking government personnel spending in that same period has also increased by 3.1%. 

He says that the big change in the fiscal stance, the tightening of the reins, have not been seen yet, and the question is if it will really be delivered. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Interesting stats on our public service, given the noise around
the restructure over the past year or so, workforces down
three point one percent. What's that meaning jobs? Well, two
thousand are gone two thousand, but quarterly we now have
a zero point four percent increase in public service jobs.
There are now sixty three thousand, two hundred and thirty
eight full time in the public service. Consultant spending came
at four hundred and twenty million. Is that bad? Well,

(00:21):
not as bad as it was because it's the lowest
in seven years anyway. Cameron Bagri, Independent economist, as well
as Cameron morning to you.

Speaker 2 (00:28):
I'm morning My two.

Speaker 1 (00:29):
Thousand as an exercise inefficiency in productivity is two thousand
out of sixty three a win?

Speaker 2 (00:37):
Well, I guess we've got to sit back and think
about Yeah, there's that old sort of adage about there's
laws as damn laws and statistics. So five were lock
at government personnel expenses and the nine months to March
twenty twenty five versus the nine months to March twoy
twenty four, government person our expensers are up three point

(00:58):
one percent, So that doesn't personify to me too much
of a tightening in regard to what's going on. So
there might be a little bit of your hodge podging
in regardless to six down below. But if you've got
the top line sort of figures, the top line figures
are still grown exactly.

Speaker 1 (01:13):
So even of the people we got rid of, there's
an increase. Why are we having an increase? How does
that come about?

Speaker 2 (01:19):
Well, I guess if you once if you look at
top down, like we're getting a lot of writer here
in regard it's been a real, big, huge tightening of
the belt. If you ever look at what's called the
obigal operating balance excluding gains and losses, or what's called
the structural deficit, which trips out the impact of the
economic cycle, they're still deteriorating over the coming twelve months.

(01:40):
It's going to get worse. Your net debt is up
fifteen dollars in the next twelve months. There's a lot
of writers about the government tightening the belt, But all
the savings that I'm seeing within the fiscal accounts are backloaded.
All the good time stuff in the form of tax cuts,
investment boost that sort of stuff that's front load. So

(02:00):
what we're seeing here at the moment, there might be
a bit of tightening in certain years of expenditure up front,
but that's been reallocated towards a bit of feel good
stuff on the other side of the lead show. And
it's bad taking for paul to pay Peter Pauline to
pay Penny that sort of stuff. But the important thing here,
Mike is the big change in the fiscal stance, you know,
the tightening of the rains. We have not yet seen

(02:22):
that that's in the out years. And the question mark
here is that all that really being delivered?

Speaker 1 (02:27):
Interesting? What's your call next week? By the way, while
I got you on the GDP that somebody who was
reading is a zero point seven and we've got some
growth in Q one or no, we had some growth
in Q one.

Speaker 2 (02:36):
Oh, we've got growth in Q one. But the big level,
the big issue here is once again it's levels versus chains.
So GDP is a change metric. So we're going to
see positive growth, which is a good thing, but you
need to see numerous quarters of positive growth before you're
going to get that level of GDP back into the
happy zone. Because we saw the economy get pretty beaten

(02:59):
up in two thousand and twenty twenty four. In twenty
twenty three. So levels matter for business and regard to profitability,
covered your operating class, that sort of Stubb with, We're
moving in the right direction, but to get in that
real feel good zone, I think we're still about six
to nine months away, but we're moving in the right direction.

Speaker 1 (03:15):
Good stuff, Cameron, you have a good weekend. Appreciate it
very much, Cameron Bagriy Independent Economists. For more from the
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