Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Does the weekend for the new US president. Plenty of
commentary on the plane crash. Of course, we had an
nicest project in somaliare on the tariffs are underway for Mexico, Canada,
and China, with more to come. Former Trade negotiated Charles
fineback with us.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
Good morning, Good morning.
Speaker 1 (00:12):
Make we've been here before? Or is this different?
Speaker 2 (00:16):
I think this is different. I think it is more
extreme than what we saw during the first term of
the Trump presidency. He has carried through on his threats
and it seems as though Canada and Mexico are facing
very comprehensive tariffs and China ten percent as well. So
(00:36):
this is at the extreme end of what people were talking.
Speaker 1 (00:40):
About in Canada and Mexico. Is it about the border
or is it about trade?
Speaker 2 (00:45):
Well, when I went to sleep last night, it seemed
to be about fentanyl in the border, But overnight there's
been lots of tweeting and it seems more fundamental. Indeed,
President Trump is talking about Canada's viability now these twenty
five percent tariffs have been imposed, and is continuing his
argument that they should become the fifty first state. So
(01:07):
he's undercutting his legal basis for justification for these for
these tariffs, and it's very worrying indeed, that he's talking
on these terms.
Speaker 1 (01:17):
Last time Canada came back and targeted orange juice out
of Florida, Tennessee, Whiskey. Because of Mitch McConnell, all of
that stuff, it got talked down eventually. Is that how
this will ultimately and do you think we'll not?
Speaker 2 (01:28):
Well, I would hope that would be the case, and
that there'll be a series of exemptions negotiated, mainly because
of the interests of US manufacturers and some importance who've
got power. But this just feels a little bit different.
So too early to tell. I think we're going to
(01:49):
see multiple legal challenges domestically in the United States, but
they'll be NAFTA or I mean US MCA, the Traide
agreement we've involving Canada, US and Mexico. There'll be panels
form WTO complaints. But so there could be injunctions domestically
in the United States because this is really hard to
(02:10):
justify in terms of US trade. Will but he does
seem to want to proceed, and I'm not sure that
the Senate and Congress have got the mojo there to
challenge and.
Speaker 1 (02:24):
Where do we fit in irony being on Friday it's
announced that suddenly the other second biggest trading partner we've
got beating out Australia. Now we don't even have a deal.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
Well, luckily tariffs into the United States for US low.
There's been no talk of tariff's being composed on New
Zealand per se. There is still talk about a global tariff,
but that would be very problematic in the US law.
I don't think it can be implemented by executive order.
(02:56):
That's something that has to go through legislature. The risk
for US in the short term is that there's going
to be a whole lot of trade floads disrupted what
he's imposed. They'd be Canadian and Mexico product looking for
new homes, and they'll be Chinese product looking for new homes,
(03:18):
and there'll be some opportunities there as well. There'll be
perhaps Chinese retaliation on the United States and maybe maybe
some new market opportunities there, but the United States may
not like people take advantage of those opportunities. So it's
going to be disruptive and we're going to see exchange
rape impacts as well, and probably equity market impacts, so
(03:41):
no New Zealander is going to be immune from this.
Speaker 1 (03:43):
Wells appreciate the insight child Charles Finny, former trade negotiator.
Speaker 2 (03:47):
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