Chris Dibble: JLL NZ Research and Strategist Consultancy head on the demand for retail space

Demand's strong for bricks and mortar retail, despite the growth of online shopping.  

JLL NZ's new report estimates almost 255-thousand square metres of new retail space is needed over the next five years to keep up with our growing population. 

It also finds customers prefer in-store shopping over e-commerce.  

Research and Strategic Consultancy head Chris Dibble told Mike Hosking a significant amount of the development is likely to happen in Auckland, as the city has about 13% of the country’s retail supply.  

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Very exciting new insight into our retail sector that might
surprise you. One, in a world of online, we still
love the bricks and mortar. And two, despite the so
called cost of living crisis, we need about two undred
and fifty thousand square meters of new retail space over
the next five years. This all comes out of the
Retail Property Insights Report from JLL and their head of
Research and strategic Consulting is Chris Drubble, who is with us. Chris,

(00:20):
very good morning to you.

Speaker 2 (00:22):
Yeah morning, makee.

Speaker 1 (00:22):
It sounds bullish, is that fair?

Speaker 2 (00:26):
Yeah? Look, I mean the way that we've TechEd this
research has looked at basically the ratio between how much
retail space we currently have and the population at the
moment as well. And so when you look at that ratio,
which is around about zero point five square meters per
person across the country, then when you look at the
population growth at New Zealand's going to go through over
the next sort of five years, we can understand it.

(00:46):
To keep that ratio, we just need more space.

Speaker 1 (00:48):
How solid are you on the population growth, because I'm
very fearful at the moment there are too many people
leaving and not enough people arriving. Therefore, the numbers don't
quite stack up to what you're suggesting they may do.

Speaker 2 (00:58):
Yeah, Look, this's always going to be the issues around forecasts,
but I think one of the key things at the
moment is we've sort of seen that start to turn
in the net migration numbers. There's always a lot of
people that want to live in this great country. So
from that side of it, well, we take our forecasts
relatively conservatively, and so from that perspective, we think that
this is a pretty good number. Is it all in Auckland, No,

(01:19):
across the country. So that's one of the other key
things at the moment. And so we are seeing a
bit of development across the country, which is positive. That
will help us start I guess eat away at some
of this growth forecast that was required in retail floor space,
but yeah, will need to be a lot of that
around in Auckland. They've got around about a third of
all the retails supply across the country. So from that perspective,
it is a significant amount that will probably happen in Auckland.

Speaker 1 (01:40):
What is two hundred and fifty thousand square meters? I
mean literally, what is that? Like a Westfield. Is that
seven Westfields?

Speaker 2 (01:47):
Is it?

Speaker 1 (01:47):
Fourteen cost Cos and a Smooth and Cowley?

Speaker 2 (01:49):
What is it? Yes, I guess you could look at
a Westfield new market that's around about eight thousand sort
of square meters, So you could look at that and say, well,
look we need sort of three or four of those
sorts of types of develop It's obviously not in the
one location, but yet spread across the country in different
types of format, because that's one of other things. From
a consumer perspective, it's the variety of retail that is
interesting in attracting them into the shops.

Speaker 1 (02:11):
I've argued long and hard for years that when everyone
got on board, they are you online in the future
and you'll never have shops left. That that's not true.
What has anything happened or is it just you know,
bricks and mortar works for people, always has, always will.

Speaker 2 (02:27):
Yeah. Look, I think from what we sort of see,
you know in New Zealand, Post numbers show that online
retail spends in New Zealand is around eleven percent, the
UK is around twenty seven percent. So there's deffinitely differences
across the world, but from outside of it, yet New
Zealanders they love that physical experience that they get when
they get into the retail premises. So from that perspective,
it's that instore retail experience that's really important, and when

(02:49):
retailers are doing that right, that's where they're starting to
win good stuff.

Speaker 1 (02:52):
Chris, I appreciate the inside Crystable, who is the JLLL
Head of Research and Strategic Consulting.

Speaker 2 (02:58):
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