Felicity Roxburgh: NZ International Business Forum Executive Director on exports, impact of trade wars

New Zealand exporters are remaining upbeat. 

The latest Export New Zealand DHL Export Barometer shows about four in five have maintained or increased export volumes over the past year. 

Exporters say it's been getting cheaper to do business, but they're getting more worried about trade wars. 

NZ International Business Forum Executive Director Felicity Roxburgh told Mike Hosking the impact of tariffs will take some time to flow through. 

She says some of the goods impacted are still on the water and wont be paying until the 5th of October, so while there’s currently a lot of positivity, time will tell. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
If you're looking for some of these so called green
shoots in our beleagud economy, then exporters are doing some
heavy lifting for US. Two thirds of them have increased
or maintained their export levels over the past twelve months.
Fifty nine percent expect even more growth. Felicity Roxburgh is
the executive director of the New Zealand International Business Forum
and is with us. Felicity, good morning to you.

Speaker 2 (00:17):
Good morning mate.

Speaker 1 (00:18):
Are we seeing anything tangible yet on the tariffs?

Speaker 2 (00:24):
Well, I mean this is heartwarming to see this positivity,
isn't it. I mean there's a lot of depressing economic
news out there at the moment that the export is
they're there, they're going great guns. But to answer your question,
I mean the tariff that's going to take time to
flow through. The latest fifteen percent round of tariff. Some
of the goods that are on the water, they're still
not even going to pay those until the fifth of October.

(00:45):
So a lot of positivity, but yeah, time will tell
hit wins a hit.

Speaker 1 (00:50):
That's kind of why I asked the question, because this
is in the rearview mirror of these stats, and you're right,
they are good. But when you talk about in this
report looking to diversify. How real and how practical is
that for a lot of bet exporters.

Speaker 2 (01:02):
Well, I think one of the things that we benefit
from is this kind of very extensive spaghetti bowl of
FTA negotiations that our good trade negotiators have been doing
over many years. So there are opportunities there, and diversification
has been around for a while. You know, company has
been talking about options and diversification. But Mike, we can't
invent new markets overnight. These things take time. You need

(01:25):
good suppliers, good contexts, good supermarket chains. You know, it's
not something we can quickly pivot to.

Speaker 1 (01:31):
So the two things you've highlighted UK and Japan when
we talk about diversification UK, I'm assuming that's out of
an FDA.

Speaker 2 (01:39):
Yeah, that's right. I should say this is export in
New Zealand's survey. They're on our board, so they're with us,
but it's not our International Business Forum survey. But yes,
UK and Japan they're highlighted the UK FDA and also
the EU is in there as well, and a billion
dollars more trade went into the EU last year, so
that's good news as well.

Speaker 1 (01:58):
Is Japan a slow booners that of upside there. They
are a very protectionist sort of society.

Speaker 2 (02:04):
They are, But now they're in the CPTPP, which is
one thing us trade new is absolutely love and we
were in the you know, we're at the ground pour
of the CPTPP and there's heaps of opportunities for us
through that agreement.

Speaker 1 (02:17):
Are we boxing above our wait? So if you look
at the global outlook, it's subdued, to say the least,
which would lead you to believe that people don't want
more stuff. But do they want more stuff if it's good?
So is that our story?

Speaker 2 (02:29):
Yeah, our high quality premium products. We need people to
want that and they do, and we need us consumers
to be prepared to pay more for them because fundamentally,
these tariffs, they're going to get passed on to the consumer.
So you know, our wonderful wine, our wonderful beef, all
of that. You know, that's the story there.

Speaker 1 (02:49):
These numbers are interesting. Twenty five percent don't require any
assistance from trading enterprise, twenty two percent want more help.
I find that interesting. Twenty percent seek more support on
R and D and another twenty percent wanting axis to market research.
What's the vibe in terms of the relationship with the
government and what can and can't be done well.

Speaker 2 (03:07):
I think, you know, in this time of uncertainty, there
is more appetite to work more closely with government and
that sort of makes sense, it doesn't there because there's
a lot of unpredictability out there and that's something that
businesses don't like. You know, unpredictability means are we going
to make capital investments? Are we going to take on
new staff? So I have seen these definitely an appetite

(03:27):
for good, high quality, actionable intelligence because there's so much
information and noise out there at the moment, so exporters
are thinking, gosh, what's going to happen overnight in the US.
So that's what I'm seeing is just appe for engagement,
good stuff.

Speaker 1 (03:42):
Felicity appreciate it very much. Felicity Roxburgh ed at the
New Zealand International Business Forum. For more from the Mic
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