Full Show Podcast: 05 November 2024

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:01):
Setting the news agenda and digging into the issues.

Speaker 2 (00:04):
The Mic Hosking.

Speaker 1 (00:05):
Breakfast with Bailey's real Estate, your local experts across residential,
commercial and rural news, togs hed been old.

Speaker 3 (00:12):
Flame Holdster, Henry Elsen on his call for tomorrow. The
PM does Tuesday. Of course, government intensifying their push on
MATS new trial and intermediates Boris Johnson on the US
votes and insight into working with trumpies with US after
Joe mcchenner does the EU FORUS and Rod Liddle does
the Mighty United Huniom Hosky, Welcome to the day, seven
past six. I asked the Prime Minister this time last

(00:34):
week about nuclear power, right. He dismissed it. He dismissed
it because we have become obsessed, of course with our
anti nuclear stance over the deckage, which is fine if
we don't want to be a data center host. But
that's the weird thing about it. We do, He argued,
not persuasively, that we can be a data center hub
with the power we have I e. Renewable. He is,
of course wrong. Over the weekend, yet more reportage and

(00:56):
by the way, if you're interested, there's an avalanche of
the stuff to be read at the moment about where
the world is going on data. It ties in with AI,
and that ties in with whether we buy into just
how big AI can be and what sort of expansion
path it's on and therefore how much power it's going
to need to run it. Dominion Energy serves the largest
data center market in the world out of Virginia. They
have just signed a memorandum of understanding with Amazon and

(01:19):
they're now looking to do business with other tech companies
on what are called small modular reactors. This is the
future of the world. We now have the capacity to
build small, agile facilities that serve businesses with increasing power needs. Oracle, Google,
all the big tech companies rather doing it, are doing
deals with providers, or they're doing it themselves. This is
happening now. It's not in the future. It is happening

(01:39):
right now. For a country that runs a commentary of
wanting to participate in the world to tap into our
tech industry to be a data hub, it seems increasingly
obvious we need to change our attitude to nuclear or
indeed miss out. What New Clear is, in very simple terms,
is reliable and good for the environment, rain and wind
and sun is good for the environment, but it's not reliable,

(01:59):
and it's certainly not capable of scaling up to the
sort of level needed to be a data center provider.
It's entirely possible we can run a small country and
its needs the way we want to. But you can
see this unfold as clear as day. In a decade,
we will have missed the boat. The world doesn't care
about us and owes us nothing. We can see the
path the world is on when we stand there in
twenty to thirty five saying look at us, still nuclear free.

(02:23):
No one will care because they don't care.

Speaker 2 (02:25):
Now who news of the world in ninety.

Speaker 3 (02:30):
Seconds, Here we go, Here we go, Here we go,
five yard line. Harris's and Michigan turn.

Speaker 4 (02:34):
The page on a decade of politics driven.

Speaker 2 (02:38):
By fear and division.

Speaker 3 (02:40):
We are done with that, and we are.

Speaker 5 (02:42):
Exhausted with that.

Speaker 3 (02:44):
Trump is in North Carolina.

Speaker 6 (02:46):
And actually, you know they have an expression. I hate
the expression. Actually, but it's ours to lose. Does that
make sense to you?

Speaker 3 (02:51):
It's ours to.

Speaker 7 (02:51):
Lose if we get everybody out and vote.

Speaker 6 (02:55):
There's not a thing they can do.

Speaker 3 (02:57):
Both camps bullish, although they are in sea chair has
a little time. How about them.

Speaker 8 (03:01):
We're in a great position to win, but we have
to win on election day and we need everybody who
supports Donald Trump to go vote, vote, vote.

Speaker 3 (03:08):
This Democratic Senator feels good.

Speaker 9 (03:10):
Tom oh Harris's agenda is to grow this economy from
the middle out, make our streets safer, work on bipartisan
immigration reform. Donald Trump's agenda in the final few days
of the campaign seems to be to divide us from
each other.

Speaker 3 (03:21):
Elsewhere in Spain that we covered the British couple killed
in the floods.

Speaker 10 (03:24):
There was no alert. My parents would not have been
out with that alert. We are so angry at the
slackness of the Spanish authorities in that respect.

Speaker 3 (03:38):
And one of the greats is DoD Quincy Jones. Was
not he one?

Speaker 1 (03:41):
I like to think about the studio as a place
that's real, sacred, you know, where magical things happen.

Speaker 2 (03:46):
Hopefully. No, that's what great records are supposed to be about.

Speaker 6 (03:49):
You never think of retiring.

Speaker 2 (03:52):
Never. When you're retired, you travel and you do what
you like to do.

Speaker 6 (03:55):
And I'm already doing it.

Speaker 2 (03:56):
You have to take the light part of your life.

Speaker 11 (03:58):
You all wipe out.

Speaker 3 (03:58):
The dogments only little piece of Italy. Next time you're there,
lake Como wants you to take a piece of it
with you. This is Italy Communica. They're now selling air
from lake Como and a can. Each can contains four
hundred mills of one hundred percent authentic air, and the
owner says it's not a product, but a tangible memory
that you're carrying in your heart. But before it reaches

(04:20):
your heart, you'll need to reach into your pocket. It's
eighteen bucks a pop, Sakas. That is news of the
world in ninety I'm very pleased to report we've got
Muldover sorted. The incumbent Sandhu has one ninety seven percent
of the voters and it was pro Russia versus pro
eu cy of relief for the pro eu as. There's
a lot of claims Russia tried to interfere with it.
All doesn't really matter because she's one and one reasonably

(04:41):
well eleven pass six.

Speaker 1 (04:46):
The mic Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio how
It by News Talks be.

Speaker 3 (04:53):
One of the first things I read this morning. This
is not how you want to start headline. Germany's governments
on the brink of collapse and you think how the
hell we get there? What we got here? With Merkel
of course, who opened the country to about a million
people who wanted in. The Germans went, what the hell
is that about? Angler booted around and we got three
clowns running the place. Anyway, The head of Macro at
I in g says, all in all, we think that
the risk of the German government collapsing has never been

(05:16):
higher than right now. So we'll talk to Joe about
that shortly fourteen past.

Speaker 12 (05:21):
That's the money from Joe. I.

Speaker 3 (05:22):
Well, Andrew kellerhergr morning, Very good morning, Mike. Is that
financial Stability Report day to day?

Speaker 13 (05:31):
Yeah, well, we will talk about the US sction. But firstly,
a today is a very busy day, isn't it. We've
got we're celebrating a guy that likes to blow things up,
Guy Forks. We've got the Melbourne Cup, we've got Americans
getting ready to.

Speaker 12 (05:41):
Hit the polling booths.

Speaker 13 (05:42):
And to cap it all off, the RBY and Z
release their Financial Stability Report today.

Speaker 12 (05:47):
Now they released us every six months.

Speaker 13 (05:49):
Now we do now in all seriousness, Mike, we tend
to focus on monetary policy as the key role for
the RBY and Z. But they do have other functions
to fulfill and the financial financial stability is one of those.
So this report looks at at assessis and soundness and
efficiency in New Zealand's financial system. But this time around, Mike,
they have actually pre released some of the report, so

(06:10):
they pre released look at the housing market, but also
the results and I thought this was very interesting.

Speaker 12 (06:14):
The results of the reverse stress tests.

Speaker 13 (06:17):
Now this has highlighted geo political risks and I couldn't
ignore the timing of that, given that we're heading into
the biggest political event in the world as Americans, our
American friends had the polls to elect a new president
or hopefully so reverse stresses.

Speaker 12 (06:30):
What the heck is that?

Speaker 13 (06:31):
So essentially, the RBNZ they asked the banks to assume
a specific capital outcome, in this case the negative one,
so one in which the banks would breach their regulatory
minimum capital ratios think major economic downturn. Of course, this
is relevant because the banks have been accused of capital rationing,
making credit hard to get because the RBNZ is asking

(06:51):
them to hold more capital. So what scenario would get
you into capital trouble? And the interesting outcome of this
is the majority of the outcomes sort of modeled by
the banks. Included a geo political event in their scenarios
which then causes a global recession and some degree of
financial crisis. But I thought listeners Mike would be very
interested in the other scenarios that the bank submitted. So

(07:14):
what is it that keeps the bank risk people asleep
in their beds, so awake in their beds at night.
So the first one is an earthquake on the Alpine fault,
preceded by a global collapse in the reinsurance industry. So
fairly unusual scenario. There you go, earthquake and the upound fault,
volcanic eruption in the Auckland region and out an outbreak

(07:35):
of foot and mouth disease. We've been talking, we've been
talking about we've been modeling that for forty years. But
the final what's no prizes for guessing the last one, Mike,
What is the last one?

Speaker 3 (07:43):
And does it come out of a market.

Speaker 13 (07:47):
It's a pandemic, of course, we've been there now very quickly.
The special topic on housing, which was released a couple
of days ago, current update on the current conditions and
near term outlet for the housing market.

Speaker 12 (07:56):
It's worth a read. It's a very good summary.

Speaker 13 (07:58):
It really does tell story of some green shoots, but
plenty of supply coming to market, and I think that's
a key issue in containing house price growth in the
short two medium term.

Speaker 3 (08:08):
Right over the US fots. So what do we need?
What we want to result? Don't we?

Speaker 13 (08:12):
Yeah, Look, we can't ignore it. And I'm get being
asked a lot about the potential impact of the election.
But the key point, before you know, I going to
some of the detail that is that financial markets love certainty.
So before we start debating about the impact of a
Trump victory or Harris's victory, let's just get.

Speaker 12 (08:30):
A clear outcome.

Speaker 13 (08:31):
I think potentially one of the most destabilizing or unsettling
outcomes would be an inconclusive result or an uncertain result.
Given how close the polls are and the bedding onds.
It's not an improbable outcome, isn't it? Because uncertainty will
generate market volatility. But the other key issue for me,
Mike is interest rates. Irrespective of who wins, they're both
planning to spend up large, Trump more so than Harris,

(08:52):
and that means.

Speaker 12 (08:53):
The US deficit will worsen.

Speaker 13 (08:54):
This is really weighing on the longer end of the
US yield curve that drives yeal curves around the world.
US long term rates in September ten years three point
six they've gone to almost four point four percent.

Speaker 12 (09:05):
That's the seismic shift in this market.

Speaker 13 (09:07):
Overnight, they've falled a bit as Harris fortunes have sort
of lifted. The shep market will probably respond more positively
to a Trump victory.

Speaker 12 (09:14):
But as as ever, Mike, what is the same.

Speaker 13 (09:16):
It's the economy, stupid, and how the economy actually plays
out will probably Trump Trump Now, Mike, I'm actually heading
to North and South Carolina in about two weeks so,
hoping they will have an outcome by then.

Speaker 12 (09:28):
If they don't, I will be the roving reporter on
the ground.

Speaker 3 (09:31):
I think. I think in a couple of weeks will
be right now, by the way day across the Tasman
four to three with no change, no change.

Speaker 13 (09:38):
No change, but nobody but who cares because they're all
watching the Melbourne.

Speaker 3 (09:41):
Cup, right, that's true? What are the numbers?

Speaker 12 (09:44):
Well, the US market's just coming off of it.

Speaker 13 (09:46):
That's the Harris sort of, that's the Harris effects.

Speaker 12 (09:50):
She's making a late run in the polls dal.

Speaker 13 (09:51):
Jones forty one thy seven hundred and twenty two, it's
down three hundred and twenty nine points.

Speaker 12 (09:57):
That's about threeqarters of percent.

Speaker 13 (09:58):
The S and P five hundred and five seven three
it's down point four four of percent. Then Nasdak is
also down point four four four of a percent eighteen thousand,
one hundred and fifty eight overnight. The forty one hundred
was up small, up sixteen points eight one nine two.
The Nike they're having a holiday today so that they
haven't traded, but it fell two point sixty three percent
on Friday. Shanghai concert up just over one percent overnight

(10:21):
three three one oh.

Speaker 12 (10:22):
The aussis yesday.

Speaker 13 (10:22):
Gained point five six percent eight one sixty four. We
gained thirty one points in the ins nex fifty that
is a quarter of percent. Lift twelve thousand, five hundred
and ninety US dollar. It coming off a little bit
as the Harris of Fortunes lift point five nine seven four.
That's resulted in the Kiwi dollar being a little bit
stronger against the US point nine oh seventy five Ozsi

(10:44):
point five four nine oh Euro point four six one
eight against the pound ninety point eight five Japanese yen
gold two thousand seven one hundred and thirty three US
dollars and Brent crude seventy four dollars and eighty one cents.

Speaker 3 (10:56):
You have a good one. Make ketchup tomorrow. Andre kelliher
Jomwealth dot co dot m z skate called America sales
for the month up fifteen point two percent. It was
subdued last month, but they'll take that all day long.
China is in the middle of their big Singles Day event.
Are we interested, Yes, we are, because are they spending
turns out, yes, they are. They see modest growth in

(11:16):
overall sales. There's some hope. They're six twenty ere News
Talks Edbo.

Speaker 1 (11:24):
The Vike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talk sedb Morti.

Speaker 3 (11:31):
Mike, you're absolutely right about nuclear windmills and solar panels
have a limited time about twenty years, and they cannot
be recycled, so they have to be buried.

Speaker 6 (11:37):
Mike.

Speaker 3 (11:37):
They're currently four hundred and forty that's an interesting stat.
Four hundred and forty nuclear power stations and thirty countries
around the world. Sixty five percent of frant as electricity
is generated by nuclear I honestly believe we're never going
to change the narrative. It is what it is, and
we have stuck where we are. But we're watching the
world passes by in this particular area. Quincy Jones, if
you missed at ninety one, which is a terrific life,
passed away peacefully in Bellair Onday night. We celebrate the

(12:01):
great life that he lived and know there will never
be another like and thriller. They say was the most face.
It's probably the most famous thing. Was it his best thing?
I don't know the career span more than seventy five years,
though twenty eight Grammys. For goodness sake, probably one of
the most influential jazz musicians. Certainly Time magazine thought so,
worked with everyone from Jackson to Sinatra. In eighty five

(12:23):
We Are the World, he co wrote that that was
a significant contribution to the world. Soundtrack to more than
fifty films and television programs. Married three times, had seven children,
which is not bad going. Let me just tell you quickly,
we will talk to the Prime Minister about it. Suggestion
and it's a leak ministerial document. Just bringing up to
speed with the military academies which a trial is going

(12:45):
or underway. Currently, they've not passed the legislation as to
how specifically they're going to run them. Part of and
this is the controversial part. Part of it involves do
you have the right to inflict force on those people
in those academies if you have to? And if you
are given that right, does that then bode well? Does

(13:07):
it cause trouble? Potentially? So some questions around that leak
document this morning will come to that later in the program.

Speaker 14 (13:13):
Six twenty five Trending Now with Chemist Wells Great Savings every.

Speaker 3 (13:19):
Day bubbles back. Dear Devil got canceled by Netflix back
in twenty eighteen because what Disney you owned? The franchise
pulled back on a pile of project's licensed to Netflix
so they could ramp up Disney plus cianni Aniada anyway,
First chance this morning for a taste of Dear Devil
born again.

Speaker 15 (13:35):
This city no longer possesses any kind of salvation, but
it is my duty to protect her.

Speaker 6 (13:43):
Spend some time, hasn't it.

Speaker 14 (13:46):
You've come up in the world now, you can't protect
this city on your own.

Speaker 6 (13:52):
I wonder if you're darker half would agree.

Speaker 1 (13:55):
I wonder if Matt Murdoch is still there or just
the devil of Hell's catching her.

Speaker 6 (14:00):
I think you will soon find out.

Speaker 2 (14:06):
A long road have us.

Speaker 16 (14:09):
Much to do, but that long stop us exactly what
kind of a lawyer?

Speaker 2 (14:14):
Are you?

Speaker 15 (14:15):
Very really good one?

Speaker 3 (14:18):
By the way, this count says one of the first
parts of Phase five for Marvel. Charlie Cox's back as
Daredevil and Vincent Donofrio or Donofrio And we had a
debate about that this morning. I went with Donofrio. Sammy's
telling me everyone knows who he is, even though we
couldn't pronounce his name. I said, how come we know
who he is if we don't even know what his
name is? So then we go look up some people

(14:39):
who are pronouncing it, and they're pronouncing it differently. Depending
on who you are, they pronounce a different day. I've
decided Donofrio has a certain vibe to it.

Speaker 15 (14:46):
Anyway, just go with the guy who was King Beennan
and the other.

Speaker 3 (14:49):
Anyway, here's the next problem. It's not out till March
next year. Fourth of March rest of the world, the
fifth of March. By the way, the banks are expected
in Australia. This is to Raken thirty billion dollars this
week worth of profit, so we're back on the old
bank business. Locally. Westpac did very nicely. Thank you. We'll
talk to the CEO of Westpac directly after the News,

(15:10):
which is next.

Speaker 1 (15:12):
You're Trusted Home the News for Entertainment's opinion and Fight
the Mike Hosking Breakfast with Vida, Retirement, Communities, Life Your
Way News, TOGSB.

Speaker 3 (15:23):
Migrant scrape continues in Italy. We'll get the update from Joe,
but probably more importantly at the moment watching the German
government which are apparently on the brink of collapsing. More
shortly twenty three minutes away from seven Lord, we're in
for a week of profit announcement from the banks. First
cab off the rank is Westpac, who in Australia made
seven million dollars which was down a little bit, but
here they made a bit over a billion dollars which
was up some ten percent. Banks, of course affront and

(15:45):
cent of these days in the halls of Wellington. CEO
Katherine McGrath's with this's Catherine morning to you a quick
number crunch if we could, Impairment charges are down. That
shows a robust sign and the economy people, despite the
difficult times, have soaked it up. Is that fair?

Speaker 5 (16:01):
Yes, underlying profits are flat and it's solid results because
we've worked really hard to support deries in tough times
and they've been more resilient as the economy has been
tough for them.

Speaker 15 (16:13):
But we're really happy.

Speaker 5 (16:13):
That we're well positioned to support them as the economy
should start to grow.

Speaker 3 (16:18):
Home and business lending is up a little bit. Is
that a sign of the economy and green shoots and
all of that or not.

Speaker 5 (16:25):
It's a couple of things. The housing market has definitely
started to pick up, and for us, we've taken market
share on business lending from other banks, which I'm delighted
about and look forward to doing more of that in
the year to come.

Speaker 3 (16:37):
Okay, the margin in Australia is one point ninety five.
It's two point one point seven here, and that's where
the government comes in. How do you explain it?

Speaker 15 (16:46):
So firstly, you've.

Speaker 5 (16:47):
Got to compare apples with apples, and the Aussie business
has a large international franchise which we.

Speaker 4 (16:52):
Don't have there.

Speaker 5 (16:53):
So if I look at their business and consumer and
wealth business versus ours, actually our margin or net and
trust margin is smaller than in Australia.

Speaker 3 (17:02):
Right, So if we accept that as a reasonable explanation,
how come the government don't get that? How come there's
an inquiry? How come they're out to get you guys?

Speaker 5 (17:11):
Well, I think that's for the government to comment on,
and I'm looking forward to the Select Committee hearings because
it's a great opportunity to be incredibly transparent and talk
about all the great market that the Westpac team does
supporting New Zealand communities.

Speaker 3 (17:25):
And Tony at another bank the other day gave what
I thought, and I assume you followed it was a
fairly cogent old line. Is your line similar to hers?
In other words, the banks speak as one.

Speaker 5 (17:37):
So I think the way I look at it is
banks have really large balance sheets, and we have large
balance sheets so that we can help an economy to
grow and we fund things like infrastructure. We've put up
a one billion dollar fund of our balance sheet to
help fund affordable housing. And so when you've got a
big balance sheet, your profits are large. And if I
look at our return on tangible equity, it's about midpoint

(17:59):
of the end x fifty.

Speaker 3 (18:00):
Yeah, that's pretty much what she said once again, I
ask you how come they don't get it? If what
you say is right.

Speaker 5 (18:08):
I can't possibly comment on why the government have a
view like that, but our job is to help them
to understand and to turn up and answer all their
questions to the best of.

Speaker 3 (18:18):
Our aballisty, do you feel like you're being in your
head against the brick wall.

Speaker 5 (18:23):
I'm a returning Kiwi so I absolutely love being at
home and my job is to help Westpac growth in
New Zealand economy. So no, I'm not branding my head
against the wall, and I'm loving helping the economy to grow.

Speaker 3 (18:35):
What about the kiwire the Kiwi Bank scenario, would something
big in that department change the market in your view?

Speaker 8 (18:45):
So?

Speaker 5 (18:45):
I think the market here is very competitive anyway, and
any growth out of Kiwi Bank is absolutely fantastic. We're
the smallest as the big four banks in New Zealand,
so any remedies that the comfom or the government want
to put in place to make competition easy is great
from my perspective.

Speaker 3 (19:02):
Okay, So the other thing that you talk about the
green shoots, what you read on the economy as we
end the year and enter the next is their hope
was survived to twenty five reel.

Speaker 5 (19:14):
So we're very hopeful about the economy in the year ahead.
I think the key thing to watch is unemployment, and
we expect that we'll peak halfway through the year. But
we do think that twenty twenty five is going to
be a better year for the New Zealand economy than
we've seen over the past couple of years.

Speaker 3 (19:28):
Somebody said, I can't remember it was, might have been
asp said six percent. Do you see it peaking at
six percent?

Speaker 5 (19:34):
No, we see unemployment peaking at five point.

Speaker 3 (19:36):
Seven fo Yeah, exactly a good time. Good time to
fix your mortgage. There's the other thing I'm reading at
the moment. You've all anticipated, you guys, that Adrian's going
to do what Adrian's going to do. So the money
markets about where we need to be should we fix
long term.

Speaker 5 (19:51):
So what we're seeing customers do as some of them
are going on to the variable rate just to wait
to see what happens. People are tending to fix a
bit shorter than they have done before. But we've reduced
our interest rates eight times since July, so it's definitely
a watching brief. And the other piece that's pretty exciting.
Is about a quarter of our customers have already rolled

(20:12):
on to lower rates by the end of this year,
and it will be more than three quarters of them
will be on lower rates in twelve months time. So
good to see that cost of borrowing coming down and.

Speaker 3 (20:21):
That is when the money starts to flow. Appreciate it.
Katherine Catherine mcguaer, who's the CEO of Westpac. Eighteen minutes
away from seventh the out of Australia Thursday, which is
the asp here. Of course, an A and Z coming in.
They're the biggest bank, are the biggest player of the
market coming in on Friday, which brings us to of
course QW Bank survey this morning. Eighty five percent want
to own their own home. I've said this all along
and people don't seem to understand. I mean, you and

(20:41):
I do, but the people who run the country don't
seem to get it. We are desperate to own our home.
That's what we live for. We love owning a home
and you are never going to change that. It is
built into it, it is baked into our psyche. Unfortunately,
according to the SERBO, thirty two percent think it will
never happen, which isn't true because a certain ages and stages,

(21:02):
and you see it with your kids, they go through.
So I'm never going to own my own home. But
of course they're you know, twenty one, twenty two to
twenty three that haven't going to have been to the name.
They've got a student debt, they starting out. Of course,
they don't think they're ever going to hone it, but
they will because eighty five percent of us want to
own a home, and so it will come to pass. Interestingly,
as far as the millennials are concerned, it's thirty to

(21:22):
forty four year olds feeling the most locked out of
the market. Seventy percent of millennials feel locked out of
the market. If you took it forty five to fifty nine,
sixty three percent feel locked out, and the gen z
is fifty nine percent feel locked out. And I think
the most difficult part of the whole equation, Steve Yukovich
points out, is you deposit, which I've long argued for,
are way too high in this country. Needing twenty percent

(21:44):
of a million bucks is ridiculous. You need five percent
of a million bucks. And it's the adre in alls
of this world that are locking young people out. If
you can raise five percent of something, you're in a home.
And if you're in a home, you'll pay your bills
because history tells us you will too.

Speaker 1 (22:01):
The Mic Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio, part
by News.

Speaker 11 (22:06):
Talksp Molly Mike.

Speaker 3 (22:08):
They're competitive, then why are they only offering interest rates
at exactly the same and they Westpac will only match
the four main banks, while Westpac is one of the
four main banks. But it's a not unreasonable question. I
shall answer it shortly.

Speaker 14 (22:19):
Fourteen to two International Correspondence with Ends and Eye Insurance,
Peace of Mind for New Zealand Business and.

Speaker 3 (22:26):
Joe McKenna, Very good morning to you, Good money, make
bonus edition of Joe McKenna this week. We're very excited
manufacturing in Italy. So you're down, down down what happened
to all the Ferraris and the Dultaan and Gabbano Cruz
where I mean, for goodness, say what are you doing?

Speaker 12 (22:39):
Look?

Speaker 17 (22:39):
There might still be a little bit of that going on,
but overall the Italian manufacturing activity is quite disappointing. Contracted
for the seventh consecutive month in October. That's not good
news for the Eurozone's third largest economy, and it's bad
news for the Maloney government, as the National Statistics Bureau
is said last month that Italian GDP had stagnated in

(23:01):
the third quarter compared to the previous three months. I
don't think this government is going to reach its economic forecasts,
expected to be one percent this year, and we're seeing
some downward revisions from the Economy Minister John Carloge or
Jetty as well.

Speaker 6 (23:18):
Well.

Speaker 3 (23:18):
It could be like us in going backwards. So I
suppose growth. Does it feel bleak? Though if you ask
one hundred people on the streets, does it feel bleak?

Speaker 17 (23:25):
Look, it's very uneven, and it's always very hard to
tell in Rome because Rome is so buoyant with a
constant flow of tourism and the hospitality industry seems to
be booming. But I think more broadly, I think there
is a great deal of concern about the state of
the economy and manufacturing and industrial production.

Speaker 3 (23:43):
Do tell me, because it was the first thing I
read in the very early hours of this morning that
the government, government, GYM and government's on the brink of collapse.
How real is that and how worried is the EU?
Given the size, power, influence and history of Germany. How
angsty do you get about that stuff?

Speaker 17 (23:58):
Well, I was thinking about it today, Mike. I mean
the absence, for example, of Chancellor Angelo Merkele, I think
is still being felt in Europe. She was such a
strong presence and really put the EU on the map,
particularly dealing with issues across the Atlantic. Now this government
is looking increasingly shaky. There's plenty of infighting, political paralysis

(24:20):
and a faltering economy. But the main issue is that
we have a coalition of three different parties pulling in
different directions with different solutions to the economic situation. And
in particular, the Free Democratic Party, which is one of
the coalition members, has published a policy paper that is
quite controversial, talking about tax cuts and other sorts of

(24:41):
things that the government doesn't seem to agree with. So
there are all sorts of emergency talks going on at
the moment to try and hold it together.

Speaker 3 (24:49):
Unreal. Of course, it was the migrants that brought Merkle down,
and you've got your own still years later, this migrant problem,
so Albania is on. Despite what we've been talking about
for the last few weeks.

Speaker 17 (25:00):
All the court action exactly the Prime Minister Georgia Maloney
is adamant she's going to push ahead sending more migrants
to Albania. We're likely to see another shipment of migrants
in the Mediterranean tomorrow, heading to those offshore migrant centers,
because some have been picked up today. But she's got
another legal headache. The judges still seem to be pushing back,

(25:23):
sitting their own agenda. A Sicilian judge today scratched the
detention of an Egyptian asylum seeker, even though he hails
from a country that the Italian government says is safe
for repatriation.

Speaker 3 (25:36):
Do you have a court Do you have a court issue?
I mean, are those courts broadly seen as interventionist?

Speaker 17 (25:43):
Well, the government certainly sees it as a rival political power.
And we've already seen comments tonight from Matteo Slovini, the
Far League leader deputy Prime minister, saying, you know, he's
had enough of the judges interfering with government policy.

Speaker 3 (25:59):
All right, must get up with you see your Thursday.
Joe mckinner out of Italy filling in for Catherine Field
for us this morning. It's already ten away from seven.

Speaker 1 (26:06):
The costume breakfast with a feeder, retirement, communities, News Talks vs.

Speaker 2 (26:11):
Mike.

Speaker 3 (26:12):
I'm looking forward to Porsche having a fifty percent of
sale to help the German economy. You wish fun fact
of the weekend that I read? Do you know that
of all the Ferraris ever made, I mean, of ever,
ninety percent of them are still on the road. It's
not bad going, isn't it. Speaking of cars, By the way,
there's a very good Harry Is garage if you're into cars.
Harry's Garret Harry Maguire, very very well known proponent and

(26:32):
expert in cars. His latest podcast is a must watch
on what's happening in cars in tech tech. We never
asked for why the cost of cars? He talks mainly
about the British market, but it's applicable here. Why the
cost of cars is going up so much? And how
come the devaluation is so great and it's getting worse
and worse and worse, Morning Mike. If they're competitive, then

(26:53):
why are the interest rates the same? Well, they're the same, Ish,
They're not the same, but they're the same. Ish based
on the fact that money costs. It's what money costs,
and banks go to the marketplace and they get the
money for what they can get the money for, and
then they charge a margin. And unless you want banks
to lend you money for less than they paid for it,
which of course you do, but they're not going to,
then it ends up being pretty much what it is.

(27:15):
I mean, if Kiwi Bank boom tomorrow and there were
five majors instead of four majors, I guarantee you nothing
would change in the marketplace. Mike. The problem is that
if you drop the deposit to five percent, house prices
will go up. Un there's nothing wrong with that, and
then first time buyers won't qualify to borrow on the DTIs. Well,
that's part of my argument as well. You don't need
the DTI. It's it's all Adrian Awe and as conservatism.
To five percent deposit ten max, get people into the market,

(27:37):
get the housing market moving. It's not hard. We've been
doing it for years until Adrian came along. Five away
from seven all the ins and the ouse.

Speaker 1 (27:45):
It's the fizz with business favor take your business productivity
to the next level.

Speaker 3 (27:50):
And of course if you can't afford a house, you
can afford the liquor. And we all love a bit
of liquer So we've got the major brands. This is global.
They're reporting declines and sales remy control are absolutely that's
the bodka people are Joseu and Anhauser. The Anheuser people
make the beer anyway. Volumes are down three percent for
seven months of the year, more than forecasts. Are not good.

(28:11):
Every major category down, including tequila, whiskey, beer and wine.
REMI conkred they're the worst hit there. Stocks down fifty
percent for the year, double digit sales lost. Mind you,
Kanyak's a very limited market, isn't it. Ask the Chinese
and they're terroriffs anyway. US alone, sales are down twenty

(28:31):
two point eight percent. On the Cognac Pernoli can't are
they still in this building? I think they're in this building.

Speaker 2 (28:36):
Weren't they?

Speaker 3 (28:37):
I think they're in this building had similar results. They
made the likes of Jamison, Carlua car lewis disgusting. No wonders.
No one's buying that ten percent dropping sales with Q
three A couple of reasons for that. Everyone's going for
the cheap stuff. Post COVID, We've given up drinking because
we're all at home getting tanked. But now we don't.
We're out there exercising and buying fitbits and you know,
Aura rings, and we're getting out there and doing star jumps.

(29:00):
Other reason is cost. We're shifting to cheaper private labels,
big brand names. Aldi Eld in the US seen a
massive jump in sales overall their beer numbers at Eld.
It's not really beer, it's just they put some sort
of pisson a can and call it beer. It's up
one hundred percent because we like cheap.

Speaker 15 (29:17):
Are you saying they have like a home brand beer?

Speaker 2 (29:18):
They probably have a.

Speaker 3 (29:19):
Home brand beer? Is that what they want to call it?
Whatever it is. Anyway, there's one category of drinks that
has seen a boots. Well, it's sort of Glenn kind of.
It's cocktails and a can. Yeah, baby, up two percent.
Cocktails in a can. Never have can? I just have it?
An old fashion in a can. I've never seen that
old fashioned?

Speaker 6 (29:38):
What?

Speaker 3 (29:39):
No, an old fashion? That's my favorite cocktail. It all
in a can.

Speaker 1 (29:42):
No, I've never.

Speaker 3 (29:43):
Seen one in a can.

Speaker 15 (29:44):
Why can't you get one in a can?

Speaker 11 (29:45):
There's an idea, somebody make one.

Speaker 3 (29:47):
Why don't you make one and go get a can
and put an old fashion in it and call it
Glenn's old fashion le to sell a head news for you.
In a couple of moments, Prime Minister after seven thirty.

Speaker 1 (29:58):
The newsmakers and the personalities the big names talk to,
like my costing, breakfast with the.

Speaker 2 (30:05):
Range rover, the law designed to intrigue and use tog.

Speaker 3 (30:09):
Sad by seven past seven, the well they keep saying,
it's the titles race. They've seen so far, over seventy
five million of the one hundred and thirty ish million
who will vote have cast their ballots. So what do
we know and what are we guessing? Polling analyst Henry
Elsen's back with us morning. Oh thank you for having
me back and not at all? Is it too tight
to call? Or can you do it confidently?

Speaker 15 (30:27):
I do have a prediction. I think Trump will win narrowly.
I don't have like an eighty percent confidence level with that,
but I think it's more likely than not that Trump
will have a narrow electoral college factory.

Speaker 3 (30:39):
Will break that down on the moment. Having read a
lot of poles, myself not as many as you, what
do you base it on? What will unfold? Do you think?

Speaker 6 (30:46):
Well?

Speaker 15 (30:47):
I wrote a piece explaining this in the New York
post and a data piece accompanying that. What I think
is that the country is shifted to the right. You
see that in all the polls, you see it in
partisan registration data, and that Harris is not winning independence
by enough to offset that. So Harris can win the
popular vote, but under narrowly, but under our system, the

(31:09):
electoral college elect and it looks like to me Trump
is going to win enough of those states to win
a majority in electoral college.

Speaker 3 (31:18):
You not only call the electoral college, but you do,
I think, call the popular vote as well. That would
be quite the victory if he pulls that off, wouldn't it.

Speaker 15 (31:25):
It would call Harris winning the popular vote by a
shade over one percent, which would be three percent less
than Biden one buy. And it would be the closest
margin that Trump has lost the popular vote by during
his three presidential elections. You know, the poll show he's
doing better with non whites, and I think people are
willing to give him a chance.

Speaker 3 (31:45):
Is it the economy? The economy, the economy.

Speaker 15 (31:47):
And immigration, immigration, immigration, The two things are mixed, You
know that you put it in context, we had something
like eight million people try and cross the border illegally
in the last three years. You know, it a huge number,
twice the population of New Zealand, but you know it's
almost three percent of our population. Imagine if you had

(32:08):
one hundred and fifty thousand people storming Auckland and trying
to get in. That's what we've had here. And the
combination of inflation and immigration is what's pueling Trump's lead.

Speaker 3 (32:18):
So if you take those two issues, that's where Harris
fell apart. Because she's been in office for three and
a half years, could have done something about it, didn't.
People giving up on that. Is that fair?

Speaker 15 (32:28):
Yeah? I think that's exactly fair. The fact is Biden
is arguably the lowest rated first term president in the
history of polling, basically up there with Jimmy Carter who
lost a landslide victory to Ronald Reagan, and less popular
than Donald Trump was at this time four years ago,
and it's very hard for Harris to overcome that legacy.

(32:50):
Had she been had they chosen somebody who wasn't the
vice president, I think the Democrats would be looking at
a victory.

Speaker 3 (32:56):
This is getting into the slotly esoteric, but when you
go back to the previous Biden was allegedly the only
person who could stop Trump getting a second term. So
did they not think beyond that, did they not think
that Biden would look too old, that it would be
a problem. And if it was a problem, what do
they do? And if they did something like Harris, that
was going to buy them the trouble they've now got.

Speaker 15 (33:14):
Yeah, well, I think you've got two decision points. First
of the decision point of last year, when an ambitious
person could have taken Bidenine and the Democratic primary and
forced them to campaign. I think what we would have
seen is what we saw in July, which is a
man who was too old to do the job. But
nobody's willing to take the rest because if you lose,
if you don't kill the king, the king kills you,

(33:35):
and that's the end of your career. And so that
let Biden slide to the summertime. And once they let
it slide to the summertime, it was either Harris or
a massy fight, and they chose to have Harris rather
than the messy fight.

Speaker 3 (33:45):
All right, Henry, nice to have you back on the program.
Henry Elson famed Polster Ahead of tomorrow eleven past seven,
Pascal A cmore change coming to a maths class near. Ye,
it's a new tutoring program that giving a world two
thousand intermediate students are going to take part in a
twelve week trial early next to you. Student will have
access to four thirty minute sessions a week, So it
sounds fairly intensive. Founder of the Education Hub, doctor Nina Hood,

(34:06):
is back. Well, there's Nina Morning.

Speaker 18 (34:08):
Good morning mate.

Speaker 3 (34:09):
Broadly you like it?

Speaker 18 (34:11):
I do? I mean, I think we know that there
are a number of students across our primary schools that
are not where they need to be at math, and
we need to do something in order to get them
much speed and small group interventional one on one tutoring
is one of the most effective means we have to
do that.

Speaker 3 (34:27):
So if I get if I were given four thirty
minute sessions a week for twelve weeks, will I crack it?
In general?

Speaker 18 (34:35):
So I think you'd get a long way there. You know,
each student's different in each student and to be at
a different stage, but you're definitely going to see progression.
As long as the tutoring interventions effective, you should see
quite a lot of progress.

Speaker 3 (34:47):
Last time I had Erica on the program Minister of
Education and asked her about this, She scolded me. I
suggested that maths is a bit unique. Some of us
get at some of us don't. She says, that's not true.
Is she right?

Speaker 6 (35:00):
Here's right.

Speaker 18 (35:00):
I think everyone can get maths. It's just making sure
that you're taught in the way that builds up the
knowledge sequentially. And what we know is that a lot
of children don't get those basic skills, which then prevents
them from going on and doing more advanced maths.

Speaker 3 (35:15):
What I like about Erica Stanford, forget the politics for
a moment, is she seems determined to get stuff rolling
and kids are being forced into doing this. You know,
there's a work book and there's this trial, et cetera.
Are we on the right track? Do you think?

Speaker 18 (35:31):
I think, broadly speaking, yes we are. I think the
Minister's identified a number of key challenges we have in
the system and is putting steps in place in order
to accress those.

Speaker 3 (35:41):
And the reason she said that intermedia is there the
last lot before they go to high school and they're
desperate to improve things. How broad, how wide? How big
does this whole thing need to be to get everybody?
In other words, we fix the system?

Speaker 18 (35:55):
I mean, ultimately we need to go the whole way
across the primary yet. But I think what the ministers
also suggesting is that if we get instruction right, so
through the curriculum, through better pedagogy being used in our
primary schools, we're going to see over time, pure and
pure intermediate students who are needing this type of intervention.
But at the moment we have quite a few who

(36:16):
are needing it. So this is a really great place
to focus at this point in time.

Speaker 3 (36:21):
Always good to have you on the program, Nina, doctor Ninahood,
who's the education have found a thirteen minutes past seven
Pascar's what Katie turns up with yesterday and the lounge
Christmas Tree. I said, You've got to be kidding.

Speaker 11 (36:33):
It seems late.

Speaker 15 (36:35):
It's I feel like it went out first first of
November last year.

Speaker 3 (36:38):
Maybe it did. Maybe it is late. Maybe she's disorganized.
And what's in our entrance way wreaths your updoors are
breaths all over the place. I says, far too early
for Christmas. And that's before I get to my barbecue problem,
which I must raise with you later. Fourteen past the.

Speaker 1 (36:52):
Mike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered by
News talks at be.

Speaker 3 (36:58):
Mike, I feel you're paying. My wife's fully created our
house already. Might relax. There are three in our lounge
for goodness sake. Sixteen past seven So Melbourne Cup Day three.
New Zealand trained horses lining up today picking the Bunch
three time Group one whin a sharp and smart trained
of course by husband and wife Graham and Debbie Rogerson
two thousand and seven. They won the lot with efficient
so they know what they're doing anyway. We talk with
Debbie Rogerson yesterday.

Speaker 4 (37:19):
Yeah, good morning to you. Though.

Speaker 3 (37:21):
Where does the year start for you in terms of
targeting the first Tuesday in November.

Speaker 4 (37:26):
Yes, it's been a long journey. It probably started in
February this year, and you're.

Speaker 3 (37:33):
Feeling good about your prospects.

Speaker 4 (37:35):
We're very very happy with the horse. Couldn't be more
than happy either way. Everything's just fallen into place and
looking very forward to tomorrow.

Speaker 3 (37:46):
Does it get any more fun when you've had a
bit of experience and a bit of success.

Speaker 4 (37:50):
Like you have, it's enjoyable a lot of a lot
of pressure and once the day is over you can
have a relief and it is enjoyable on the day
and it's exciting, but there is a lot of pressure
going into a race like this too.

Speaker 3 (38:11):
How much of it's luck of the day versus preparation
and training.

Speaker 4 (38:16):
Well, a lot of it is the preparation and training,
and then also a lot of luck on the day,
luck in the running, track conditions, etc.

Speaker 3 (38:23):
And what about the day itself? How does the day
unfold for you? And do you get sick of the
build up? The build up, the build up and you
just like to get on with it.

Speaker 4 (38:32):
That's sort of the way it feels like at the moment.
I can't wait for tomorrow to roll on, to be honest,
because it's been a long journey to get here, a
lot of pressure, so I'm looking very hard to tomorrow
to be over with.

Speaker 3 (38:44):
And what about the weather and track?

Speaker 4 (38:47):
The weather has been fantastic here and the track will
be a good three which that will suit it, so
that's really our favor as well.

Speaker 3 (38:55):
Will you have a sense in the morning, in the
early hours of the morning, will you have a sense
whether the horse right and we're set to go? Do
you get a vibe like that or not?

Speaker 4 (39:03):
Yes, we do, you know, We've been working with him
all the right through while we've been here and this
morning he come off the track.

Speaker 3 (39:09):
He was bright.

Speaker 4 (39:10):
Heyet his couple of rolls in his role and he's
very bright, happy and he's really in the zone. And
like you say, tomorrow morning too, I'll give us even
more confidence how bright he is. And just little things
that you know about the horse.

Speaker 3 (39:24):
Fantastic. Debbie Rogerson. We recorded her yesterday because of course
she's she's got to get in the zone for this morning.
Of course, in the early hours of the Melbourne morning. Now,
how do we get onto this online utery? Mic. We're
paying one hundred dollars an hour for our year ate
wor at Crimson Academy. Is he's top of his class
and he's not being taught anything. It's a trial at
this point of the trial goes well, then they'll spread
it out around the intermediates into the primaries. Mike, it's

(39:45):
not just the bottom that's need lifting, but the whole range.
I think we'd all agree with that. Christmas, Mike tel Katie,
fifth of December till the fifth of January. Too early.
Thank you, Ann, Thanks goodness, someone's on my side. This
was a good one. Yesterday in the postcap press conference
with the Prime Minister cancer drugs. I have simpathy Mike
and empathy with their quest. But I think that any
group that asks for more money must be starting to

(40:06):
ask where to get the money from. What was revealing
And I like Luxeon's honesty about this because of course,
as always, I mean, everyone's lined up to ask for
more money. What about the cancer trucks, what about the
promises you made?

Speaker 6 (40:17):
And so on?

Speaker 3 (40:18):
And they said they do it in Australia, but not here,
And Luckson said, Australia is wealthier than us. New South
Wales is thirty five percent wealthier than we are. And
you can't argue with that. Ask for all the money
you want, but guess what, you've got to have the
money in the first place, and we don't. Anyway. We'll
talk more about that shortly seven twenty.

Speaker 1 (40:41):
The Mike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio car
it by News Talk.

Speaker 3 (40:47):
ZEP Mike Light's up weekend before Christmas. That's enough makes
it fun, Otherwise it's boring. If you're a business leader,
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(41:49):
AI helping you to succeed in business. Asking seven twenty
four one of the many things I failed to truly
understand about this election is just what it is they
think Jennifer Anderston or Harrison All is going to do
for your vote. The celebrity endorsement has been a mainstay
of the Democrats campaign, mainly because there are very few
so called famous people in places like Hollywood that aren't liberals.

(42:09):
She has not been short of choice. At some point
I decided it started to look a bit desperate. Lebron
John bond jov over the weekend with the song Bruce
Springsteen's an old favorite Lady Gaga, and of course if
they managed to roll out Tea Squiz, it's reached peak
endorsement or peak panic. One or the other. Tea Swizz
has already endorsed, of course, but it seems it's better
if you actually show up and sing a song. Jennifer

(42:31):
Lopez showed up over the weekend, but she didn't sing,
but she did manage to look sensationally earnest. My suggestion
is this celebs a robust. They are not what they
used to be. I mean, I love Lebron, I love
what he's about, I love how good he is, and
he can vote anyway he wants I still love him,
but he's never going to tell me how to vote,
no matter which way I vote. Could he sway an
impressionable eighteen year old sports freak. Maybe maybe that's why

(42:55):
he's out there. But a lot of them aren't of
Lebron's weightiness. A lot of them are a shallow a puddle.
And that is modern celebrity for you. This isn't carry
Grant Luci or Ball or Sean Connery, the days of
mystery and intrigue. These are the days of TikTok, where
these people are so omnipresent they could be our mailman. Hence,
the star powers dimmed, the influences faded. The idea that
we can't think for ourselves is preposterous. If celebrities worked,

(43:19):
this would be a landslide. And yet it isn't. It's
Trump and Hulk Hogan versus Harrison, virtually the entire film
and music industry. Somehow the Dems have missed the memo.
And if they lose, what's that say about the entire
film and music industry? Cosking, And of course it's all
guestwork at this particular point in time. And you can

(43:39):
look to the poles and you can look to the
trends and you can look at the surges. I read
a very interesting piece on the ABC, ABC being the
Australian Broadcasting Corporation, and you can get it by a
woman called Lee Sales. Lee Sales joian of Australian Broadcasting,
host of the seven PM television program Till she's sort
of semi retired or wandered off to write pieces that
she wrote the other day that I read's history is instructive,

(44:01):
and she's a liberal. She reckons history is instructive. They've
never elected a woman and they're not about to. I mean,
they could, but they're probably not about to, far less
a woman of color. She says, history counts, and she's
probably right. Then she breaks down these statistics, which I
find fascinating. What percentage of people in America are white?
Sixty nine percent. You hear so much coverage of the

(44:22):
Latino vote, of the Hispanic vote, of the Black vote.
Behind the sixty nine percent of Americans who are white,
comes the black vote. How big are the Black population
of America? It's eleven percent. How big is the Hispanic
population of America It's eleven percent. Add those two together
ed equals twenty two doesn't come to sixty nine, Which

(44:44):
doesn't mean, of course, that every white person in America
doesn't want to vote for a woman and doesn't want
to vote for a black woman or a woman of color.
But history tells us something. And I will never forget
standing in the Jabbet Center in twenty sixteen, and Hillary
Clinton wasn't just an odds on chance to win. She
was going to win. There was no question she was

(45:04):
going to win, and she was going to win by
a lot, and it was just a matter of a
couple of hours, and we just needed to count up
the votes and we'd have our first woman president ever.
And even they were so convinced that as it unfolded
in the way it did, they didn't see it. They
couldn't believe that what was happening was happening. And so
you look to history, and I think Lee's sales is
probably right, but look it up and read it yourself.

Speaker 1 (45:27):
The Breakfast Show you can trust, the Mic Hosking Breakfast
with Bailey's Real Estate. Your local experts across residential, commercial
and rural news dogs had been Lauris.

Speaker 3 (45:37):
Johnson used to run Britain, is winging his way to
the country. So he's on the program after eight o'clock meantime,
another person running a country at the moment, as Christopher
luxA ow Prime Minister. Good morning to you.

Speaker 11 (45:47):
Good morning, Mike.

Speaker 3 (45:48):
How are you very well? Indeed your Christmas decorations up
at home?

Speaker 19 (45:51):
Hey, they're not yet, but we're getting date. We've started
the conversation Amanda and I. So yeah, we try and
get it early, and we try and close it.

Speaker 3 (45:58):
Out early, close it out pre Christmas or your.

Speaker 19 (46:01):
Move twenty six, twenty six of Foxing Day. But just
by virtue of what happened in the rest of our
life over that summer period. But I can imagine the
hosting household. You've been trimmled for some time. You've probably
got into it.

Speaker 3 (46:13):
Well, we just came to a bit of a bit
of a head yesterday is what happened. Anyway, But enough
of this now listen this report. You're aware of the
leak this morning, the ministerial document. This is the military academies.
And by the way, yesterday in the post cap conference,
you spoke eloquently, I thought, almost emotionally about what you've seen.
When did you go what did you see in what's happening. Yeah.

Speaker 19 (46:33):
Look, I mean I just think it's pretty disingenuous to
compare what's happened in the past and the seventies, particularly
through the abuse and state care type programs that were
up and running, and what we're trying to do here.
I went down and probably spent three hours with those
young men. Are they are some of our toughest candidates
in terms of serious young offenders.

Speaker 11 (46:50):
I was really impressed. One is, there's incredible people around them,
Like the staff to.

Speaker 19 (46:57):
Kid ratio is really really high. Their senior psychologists as
social works, because there's a heap of support in there,
there's really good oversight. But most importantly, I actually got
to talk to these young guys and you could see, Okay,
what's made the difference, And the point was actually people care.
I've come from a rubbish environment, typically bad family background.
I end up in here and people actually are taking

(47:18):
an interest in me and are investing in me. And
so they were doing things like trying to get qualified
to be able to do, you know, work on roads
for example. They a couple of them actually had worked
with contractors on site at the center, either volunteered to
help out concretors and landscapers, and some of them had
actually been even offer jobs and so you know we've

(47:38):
got you know, this was I think it's been a
really good program, and I think, you know, I know,
people want to sort of dumb it down to a
boot camp and imagine a sergeant major shouting.

Speaker 11 (47:46):
At these kids.

Speaker 19 (47:46):
Yep, they're up at six thirty. Yes they're in uniform.
Yes they've got a h high degree of physical training.
But they've also got all the other support that they
need to and they're writing resumes and they are thinking
about interviews and job interviews and all that.

Speaker 11 (47:59):
Sort of good stuff.

Speaker 19 (48:00):
So you know, the three months in the residential part
has been a huge success. Now the challenge really begins
because each of them has a social worker if they
come back into life, and we've got to make sure
obviously they don't go back to bad environments and we
try and make a shift there as well.

Speaker 3 (48:13):
So we should try so much. You because you were
the Prime Minister and gave you the middle finger as
you walked out, you're convinced that someone's working there.

Speaker 19 (48:22):
Yeah, absolutely, I mean, and the caliber of the team
that we assemble to actually work with these kids, because remember,
we want to see whether we can actually use this
as a means by which we can learn something about
how to upgrade our performance. And all these residential facilities,
it was really fantastic and so you know, honestly, the
management around them, the focus on care, rehabilitation, the multiple

(48:43):
hours of protection, oversight, all that good stuff was fantastic.
And I think, you know, they've got a purpose, and
I think that's half the thing, right, how do we
get our young people to have mission and purpose and
get connected to something and then you know, you know,
life has meaning?

Speaker 3 (48:59):
Okay, having that, So the leak this morning is and
the alarmism is around when you go to pass the legislation,
because it's important to point out this is the trial
and you haven't passed the legislation. When you pass the legislation,
will were people running these courses have the power to
use force?

Speaker 19 (49:14):
Well, that'll be ultimately a decision for the operators in
the program.

Speaker 11 (49:19):
And I'm not close enough what they need or.

Speaker 3 (49:21):
You either get you either give them the power to
use force or you don't. They don't make it up.

Speaker 19 (49:27):
Yeah, well, I'm just not in that position like to
comment on that as to why it would be used
or how it would be used for restraint or other things.
But what I can say is what I saw was
actually quite a different hold of actually to engage.

Speaker 3 (49:38):
It's a different idea. We're not playing this dumb game.
You're setting the rules and the rules of engagement. Do
you give the providers the power to use force or not.

Speaker 19 (49:49):
I haven't had those conversations. I haven't been withhoofed on that. Sorry,
with who?

Speaker 6 (49:55):
What do you mean.

Speaker 3 (49:56):
Conversations with who? Who are you talking to? We're not
talking to as the case may be.

Speaker 19 (49:59):
Well, I mean it hasn't been a top of a
conversation that we've tad with, you know, Karen Schuur and
myself as the minister.

Speaker 3 (50:04):
Well, there's something going on here. Don't bs me on this.
I'm not I'm not refusers to sleep the Karen saw
is refusing to speak to anyone about this.

Speaker 19 (50:14):
Why, I don't know, But I just say to you,
I mean, feel free to keep reaching out to our office.
I'm all I'm saying is I'm not aware that we've
actually got you know that. That's actually it's not something
I've been briefed on. It's not something that I'm aware of.
It's not something that I would should be involved in
those closest to it, should make those calls and decisions
to what they need.

Speaker 3 (50:30):
So you don't you don't think that if you give
people force and they go whack somebody around the head
when they're in the military camp, that's not going to
come back to buy you and the bum on this program,
will it.

Speaker 19 (50:40):
That's well, what I'm interested in is have we got
the layers of child safeguarding and protection and oversight which
has been a consistent problem across our care of kids
for decades now, as evidenced by the abuse and state care.
So what we're focused on here is making sure that
we get all the support services in. We've got a
great ratio, as I said, of psychologists and social workers
to each kid, and we've got the oversight and the

(51:02):
protection that we need.

Speaker 11 (51:04):
So but those decisions as to precisely how.

Speaker 19 (51:07):
That all comes together and how it's deployed will be
made by OT who are operating these silities.

Speaker 3 (51:13):
But OT the incompetence who have got us into this
mess in the first place.

Speaker 19 (51:19):
Well, again, I just say to you that what I've
experienced with these military academies and what I'm seeing on
the ground and the interaction with the young people and
the quality of the staff that are around them. I've
been really really impressed, and I think.

Speaker 3 (51:29):
That's a very very I want these things to work.
But here's the problem. I mean, next week you're apologizing
for a generation of people who went into state care
and you abused, and so you've got another form of
state care, which is a military academy. You want to
do the right thing. The talk is the right thing,
you're arguing, there's evidence of the right thing, but when
you go to pass the legislation, you can't answer the

(51:50):
question where you're going to boot them up the bum,
whack them around the head and treat them badly.

Speaker 19 (51:54):
Well, what I just say to you, though, is that
I think it's a bit Well what I said yesterday
is why it's so disingenuous.

Speaker 11 (51:59):
Is I think about the examples and the abuse of
state care.

Speaker 19 (52:01):
There was like unvested, unqualified staff that doesn't happen today.
They were isolated and pretty appalling conditions on Great Barrier
and other places. You know, we've actually got three month residential,
nine month at home. They were focused on abuse and punishment.
We're focused on care and rehabilitation, there was no oversight
on monitoring like any of these, we've got multiple layers
of protection and oversight. We've actually got and sure the
kids also have great independent advocacy services as well, so

(52:24):
the checks and balances are there. As to the inherit's
all operationalized. That's ultimately got to be a decision to
a manager that we hold accountable for delivering that.

Speaker 3 (52:32):
Here's the counter here's the counter argument. Not providing these
powers would mean staff outside of the residential setting would
be exposed to legal risk if they tried to prevent
a young person from absconding or from harming themselves or
harming another person. Given this risk, I consider that clear
authority is needed. In other words, they can use force
as a concept. Then, given you haven't had discussions, does

(52:53):
that sit comfortably with you?

Speaker 11 (52:55):
No.

Speaker 19 (52:56):
I want to make sure that there is multiple approach
around oversight and protection of those young people. And so
that's where I'd be coming down in that conversation when
we get to have that conversation.

Speaker 3 (53:05):
Yes, but multiple oversight of the ability to use force,
or multiple oversight of the ability not to be able
to use force.

Speaker 11 (53:13):
Not to use force.

Speaker 19 (53:14):
I think I appreciate these are really difficult kids and individuals,
but the history here is shocking and what I really
want to see is a culture shift and change to
focus on the care, rehabilitation, layers of protection and oversight
and child safeguarding, and that is something that I think
consistently across our system.

Speaker 11 (53:32):
We've done a very poor job at.

Speaker 3 (53:33):
Okay, Also out of yesterday's postcab, why don't the media
understand that Winston Peter's meeting the Trade Minister of India,
whether or not it's in Melbourne doesn't matter. It's the
meeting that counts, and we need to do business to
grow the economy, so we make the money. So when
they then go and ask about the blood cancer products,
you can go, well, because we grew the economy, we

(53:55):
have the money to speak on that. How come they
can't join those simple dots.

Speaker 19 (54:00):
Try and communicate it as best as I possibly can.
Like but that is a very important meeting for us
because to sit down with Penny Wong, our only ally
and foreign minister, and what we call the one plus
one or the two plus two with finance ministers coming
together and meeting formally, and then also to have doctor
J Shunka who was, without doubt one of the influential
secretaries of state anywhere from any country in the world

(54:20):
being there, and I've met with him twice now myself.
He is very very influential, but also very very thoughtful,
and so the fact that Winston Peter's has a good
relationship with him, the fact I have a good relationship
with him, is about making sure we build breadth and
depth of the relationship with India, because you got to
ask a question, how do these things get done. You've
got to build the relationships first. That's why mcclay's been

(54:41):
to India six times. That's why Winston's been there once.
I've spoken to Modi twice and met with him once.
I've met with Jay Shanka twice. Now we've hosted the
Indian president. We build the case and that's why we've
now got an invitation to go to India next year
with a delegation to start the trading process and how
we can deepen up trade. I think the thing I
was really proud about, to be honest, Mike, and illustrative

(55:03):
what we're trying to do in India but also all
around the world. As you had this deal with the
GCC that's been going on into successive governments now for
eighteen years.

Speaker 11 (55:11):
It was stopped.

Speaker 19 (55:12):
McClary started it in February and he concluded it.

Speaker 11 (55:14):
On the weekend.

Speaker 19 (55:15):
The guy came in from Saturday morning from the GCC,
came to the Seeker Show with me on Saturday, and
on Sunday fired out to China to actually take a
delegation seventy companies up there for their biggest important export conference.
So you know, we are hustling and moving. When I've
said to you in the past, you know we're heading
this with intensity. That's what we're trying to do because
why court of our jobs tried up with trade. You know,

(55:35):
companies that export have seven to ten percent high wages
and salary. So it's got to be part of the
way forward for us to lift the join and lift
our quality of living standards.

Speaker 3 (55:43):
Appreciate your times always, Prime Minister Christo bluckx than thirteen
to two.

Speaker 1 (55:47):
The Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talks at Me.

Speaker 3 (55:53):
Here he go sums it up. Geez, Mike, you're a
bit bloody tough on Chris next text excellent interview with
the Prime Minister. He's like wrestling with smoke and so
it goes. So I think we're probably driving that one
down the middle. Race horses given its Melbourne Cup day.
I read a fascinating fact yesterday one in every two
hundred and fifty four Australians own at least a share
of a race horse. Or are thirty five thousand race
horses registered in Australia. So one every two hundred and

(56:15):
fifty four Australians own a slice of it. And why
would they do that? Well because of the prize money's
gone through the roof. I also agree with an article
I read of Peter fitz Simons the other day. He said,
let's be clear, the Melbourne Cup does not stop a nation,
and hasn't for years. And I think he's probably one
hundred percent right, And it certainly doesn't stop in Australia.
If it doesn't stop in Australia, it doesn't stop in
New Zealand. Is the broad interest, Yes, will there be

(56:36):
sweet stakes, yes, But the days when everything stops simply
isn't true anymore. It's not true of anything. We don't
gather around the water cooler, we don't all watch the
same television program. We aren't all interested in the same thing.
No one connects the way they're used to anyway. The
Melbourne Cup's got a prize pool today of eight million,
and that's why people are buying into horses. First place
is four point four million cash. This is how it's

(56:57):
broken up. Because I don't know much about racing, this
was interesting to me and this is why people are
buying slices of horses the prize money. So if your
horse wins the Melbourn Cup today you get four point
four million. How's that sliced up? Well, eighty five percent
goes to the owners. That's a lot of money. Ten
percent to the trainer doesn't strike me as a lot
of money for all the work you do as a trainer.
As an owner, you just go a she lock an

(57:17):
anti good and then the trainer has done all the
work will go oh yeah, reasonably. Five percent goes to
the jockey. Five percent of four point four million you'd
have that, wouldn't you. But eighty five percent depending of
course on how many owners. I mean, if there's two
owners your quids, then if there's eight hundred owners, there
are ninety five races that pay a million dollars or
more in prize money. So work that one through. That's

(57:37):
the equivalent of a million dollar race every three point
eight days. There are nearly twenty thousand races run on
Australia every year. The prize money is increased by forty
five percent. They're paying out eight hundred and eighty five
million dollars and that's in twenty twenty two and it's
risen since then, so they'll be cracking a billion and
that's why people want to buy a slice of horse

(57:58):
ate away from eight.

Speaker 2 (58:00):
The Mike Hosking Breakfast with the Range Rover Villain News.

Speaker 6 (58:03):
Tom said, b a.

Speaker 3 (58:04):
Little bit of action on this. We've had Henry Olsen
the Polster. He says it's Trump. Nate Silver says it's
Trump that's as gut as opposed to anything. And then
we've now got the polsters at Rasmussen. The head poster
is a guy called Mark Mitchell. He says Trump is
poised to secure a significant electoral victory, potentially sweeping battleground states.
He's favoring Trump in the national poll as well, which

(58:26):
is interesting because Henry Olsen doesn't say he will win
the popular vote. But he doesn't rule it out, and
he wouldn't be surprised if he does so. He wins
the electoral college plus the popular vote, So that is
legitimacy all day long. Because there's been this boring debate.
You know, you go back to Clinton as an example,
three million forew of votes, et cetera, et cetera. It
doesn't matter because the electoral college is all that counts.

(58:47):
But if you win the electoral college plus the popular vote,
then there's just no question. This guy Mitchell is suggesting
Trump's going to secure a strongly nationally dominate in the
battleground states. And you probably need to look to Reagan
in nineteen eighty over Carter. And whether you want to
use in a motive word like landslide doesn't really matter.

(59:10):
Is it going to be a decisive victory, he says
it will be. It appears stronger, the Trump cycle appears
stronger in the swing states than in past cycles. He
dismisses the polling around Harris and the late breakers and
the women and all of that. He says those poles
misleadingly skewed towards Harris, who would know on the day
will find out, But that's three really major players in

(59:33):
the world of polling. Are they all wrong or are
they all seeing the same thing? And in other words
they're right. A mate of Donald trump Man who's worked
with him, knows them reasonably well is Boris Johnson. He's
with up in the News, which is next to your
at Newstalk zedby what the big.

Speaker 1 (59:53):
News, bold opinions, the Mike Costing, Breakfast with Veda, Retirement, Communities,
Life your Way news togs had been.

Speaker 3 (01:00:01):
Eleven past day. Boris Johnson never shot a drama, never
short of a headline. Of course, when he got Britain's job,
top job, he dealt with Brexit and COVID and the
Ukraine invasion. Who was one of the first and to
see Zelenski. Of course, we spoke to Boris the other day.
He had a little piece on his take on the
British budget which came out last week. But in talking
to him we also got onto the business of the
election and the way they elect governments in that country.

(01:00:24):
First passed the post because if you look at the vote,
I put it to Boris, if you look at the
vote that the Labor Party got, it wasn't actually that high.
And yet they won seat wise in an absolute landslide,
and I suggested to Boris that didn't seem right.

Speaker 6 (01:00:37):
No, that was it was mad.

Speaker 16 (01:00:38):
I mean, they got four million fewer votes that I
didn't know that my party did in twenty nineteen. They
got ten fewer smaller share of the vote. I mean,
I got we got forty four percent. They got thirty
four percent. And you're quite right, Mike, they got a
whacking majority. And yeah, that's it's a it's a it's

(01:01:01):
a it's a it's a flaw in the system. But
I tell you what, I'm here in New York and
what we're coming to the climax of this, this US.

Speaker 6 (01:01:09):
US presidential election, and everybody, I.

Speaker 16 (01:01:12):
Mean, the atmosphere here is unbelievable. People are going bananas right,
and people are so entrenched in their in their positions,
and you know, you would turn on Fox and people
are raging about calmly telling the other guys in.

Speaker 6 (01:01:26):
There and they're they're they're all, hey, here's the wonderful thing.
Here's the wonderful thing. You don't know.

Speaker 16 (01:01:34):
I don't know what is going to happen on Tuesday,
And isn't there's something beautiful about that because majestic. Because
in Russia, in China, in Iran, plenty of other places
around the world, they know what's going to happen in
their elections, and here it is genuinely in the hands

(01:01:57):
of the American people.

Speaker 6 (01:01:59):
And I did you I just find that fantastic? Well,
yeah it is.

Speaker 3 (01:02:02):
I mean, it is fantastic until I ask you this.
I mean, one of them doesn't have an original idea
and a hid and the other one's a nut job,
and yet one of them is going to end up
running the most important country in the world. Doesn't it
frighten you?

Speaker 16 (01:02:12):
But you know, it reminds me of the old Martin
Amus line. Do you remember in Money? Do you ever
read Money by Martin as where where?

Speaker 6 (01:02:19):
Where?

Speaker 16 (01:02:19):
He's John's self is looking at the situation in the West,
and he says, you know, my god, look at Washington, London.

Speaker 6 (01:02:26):
He's an actor, she's a chick.

Speaker 16 (01:02:28):
You know, as though that disqualified either of them from
from doing their from doing their jobs. Actually, you don't
know which human beings are going to turn out to
do extraordinary things for their for their for their country.

Speaker 6 (01:02:44):
And you can't. You can't, you can't predict it.

Speaker 16 (01:02:50):
And you know, I had a good relationship with Carmela.
I thought she she when I met her, she was
very much on top of it. But and you know,
here are all our liberal viewers and listeners may may
freak out. But when I talked to Donald Trump, when
I worked with him, as I did for years and
years on important foreign policy issues where I was Foreign

(01:03:11):
Secretary and then as Prime minister, you know.

Speaker 6 (01:03:14):
He was pretty gone good, and he was robust.

Speaker 16 (01:03:17):
And he was robust on Syria where he bombed the
hell out of bachel Ala Sad for using chemical weapons.
He was robust on Iran liquid and vaporizing customs Solimani.

Speaker 6 (01:03:30):
And by god, he was a robust on Putin.

Speaker 16 (01:03:33):
Everybody's everybody now obsessed with the kind of you know,
Tucker Carlson Putin fanboy, you know stuff. They love him,
taking his shirt off and always and they're away sort
of horrible, sort of extreme admiration for Putin.

Speaker 6 (01:03:48):
But I don't think that's where Trump is at all. Now.
I may be wrong, but I don't think that's where
he is.

Speaker 16 (01:03:52):
He gave the Ukrainians the shoulder or the javelin missiles, right,
which were.

Speaker 6 (01:04:01):
The Democrats didn't do anything like that.

Speaker 16 (01:04:05):
Obama Biden when they when they were running the where
when Putin invaded don Bass and crimea nothing and Trump
did that. And I tell you something, when when Putin
poisoned the those people as innocent people in in Salisbury
and Wiltshair in our country, remember that it was Donald

(01:04:25):
Trump who massively surprised on the upside by expelling sixty
Russian spies. And look, oh, I'm saying, Mike is you know,
you say he's a nut job, and she has if so.

Speaker 6 (01:04:41):
There was definitely a method in his madness.

Speaker 16 (01:04:43):
But I would say, is that I see a world
and you know, this is what I will be saying
at the DUCO event. I think the world will be
happier and more peaceful for having a strong America.

Speaker 3 (01:04:56):
But but hold on a minute. He's not interested in Ukraine.
And no one loves Ukraine outside of Ukraine more than
you do.

Speaker 6 (01:05:04):
I do love Ukraine and so but that's why, that's why.

Speaker 16 (01:05:07):
So maybe I'm speaking with the voice of hope rather
than than than than realism, but I still think I'm realistic.
You know, I get back to my point. Look at
what he did when he was in He has a
he has a base of.

Speaker 6 (01:05:22):
Some of them, some of them pretty extreme on you know,
they like Putin.

Speaker 16 (01:05:25):
They think Putin's a stand up family guy with you know,
Christian values, I mean, which the biggest bullshit I've ever heard,
But that's what they think. And the Ukrainian's problem from
the perspective of Donald Trump was that all their most
passionate supporters in America, Hillary Clinton, you know, Joe Biden

(01:05:51):
or all these they were all the.

Speaker 6 (01:05:52):
People he doesn't like.

Speaker 16 (01:05:54):
So for him, their cause was espoused by foes, and
that made it difficult for him to be where I
think naturally he would be and where I think he
will be if he were to get it, which is
for a strong West, for standing up to Putin as
he did before, and for not allowing NATO to be humiliated,

(01:06:17):
not allowing Western democracy and America to be humiliated, because
that's what would happen if they're allowed Putin to win.

Speaker 6 (01:06:25):
It will be a total.

Speaker 16 (01:06:26):
Humiliation for America and the consequences will be will play
out for decades to come.

Speaker 3 (01:06:31):
All Right, Well, they'll type you're right, but say you're wrong,
and Trumps out and it's left to NATO. Is NATO
and Europe up for Ukraine in a way that defeats Putin.

Speaker 16 (01:06:39):
I think that you have to recognize, Mike, that NATO
is effectively the vehicle for America for the expression of
American military hegemony in the euro Atlantic area. That's where
NATO is the supreme allied commander in Europe. That the
top military office is always, always, since I had Dwright
the Eisenhower, it's always been held by an American. And

(01:07:02):
that's just that's just the way it it works that
the Deputy Sacure tends to be a brit I think
always has been a brit But that just is how
it works. So the idea of having an admission into
NATO without American consent or without American you know, enthusiasm,
is just not as not possible.

Speaker 6 (01:07:22):
But I would say to all.

Speaker 16 (01:07:24):
Our American friends that this is a massive, massive win
for American and a saving in the long run.

Speaker 6 (01:07:31):
You know.

Speaker 16 (01:07:32):
The the reason we've got this appalling wall, which all
all the instability, the inflation, the problems it's caused the
world is because of that lack of clarity in the
borders in Europe and because it seemed to Poot him
that we were willing to acquiesce in him trying to
rebuild the Soviet Empire, and you've got to get You've

(01:07:54):
got to get Ukraine into NATO now, because that's the
only solution.

Speaker 6 (01:07:58):
Why is Hungary and NATO?

Speaker 16 (01:07:59):
Why is Why is Lithuania, LaPier, Estonia, Finland in NATO
because they've all been invaded by Russia.

Speaker 3 (01:08:05):
We are in conversation with Boris Johnson, who's in New
York more shortly fifteen past the.

Speaker 1 (01:08:11):
Mic Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered by News.

Speaker 3 (01:08:15):
Talk Zippy News Talks every seventeen past eight. Boris Johnson
in the country in a couple of weeks time. I'll
give you details shortly. But in conversation with them the
other day, having just said what he said about Trump,
I said, you know, obviously he knows Trump. So I
wanted to know when Trump says I will in the war,
how does he do that?

Speaker 6 (01:08:33):
I think what he does this is no secret.

Speaker 16 (01:08:36):
What he what he proposes is to ring up the
pair of them, Vladimir Putin and lot of b Zolenski
and say the Putin look, unless you cut a deal,
you know, we'll give the Ukrainians everything they possibly want,
and and vice versa, he'll ring Zolenski and say, le's
you kind of deal.

Speaker 6 (01:08:56):
We're going to cut the funding. Now.

Speaker 16 (01:08:58):
The problem with that is that it won't work, and
it will you know, the best it can lead to
is a sort of terrible standoff in which Putin retains
the ability to attack Ukraine, and that will be obvious
to Trump. It will collapse, and the Ukrainians went accepted, and

(01:09:18):
they won't accept a partition. They went they won't accept
the loss of so much of their country, and why
should they. They will fight on. I mean, Putin has
totally disproved his own thesis about Ukraine. He set out
to show that Ukraine wasn't really a country. He wrote
that crazy essay saying that Ukraine was was, you know,
just a sort of a kind of slabic emanation of

(01:09:43):
the of the of the Russo sphere, and you know
that it was integraly bound up with with Russia.

Speaker 6 (01:09:51):
And he's proved decisively that that's not the case.

Speaker 16 (01:09:54):
The Ukrain's have the fiercest, most passionate nationalism patriotism any
in the world, and.

Speaker 6 (01:10:02):
They're gonna win because it's a war of independence.

Speaker 16 (01:10:05):
Now, wars of independence only end one way.

Speaker 6 (01:10:08):
And the sooner we get it done, the better.

Speaker 3 (01:10:11):
I hope you're right. Hey, listen domestically generic or bed knock.

Speaker 16 (01:10:14):
Well, it's it's absolutely sweet of you to invite me
to uh comment. The best thing I can do is
is stay way way out of that one. But whoever,
you know, I'm sure whoever gets it with a bang
up job, and and the whole kar starletork and and
you know Starmer is absolutely plowing this thing right now.

Speaker 6 (01:10:32):
As I said to you at the beginning, you know,
it's it's it's painful.

Speaker 16 (01:10:38):
You know why the guy takes six hundred pounds from
a from a donut for a pair of spectacles?

Speaker 6 (01:10:45):
How earth can you don't have spectacles? But I don't aspecticle,
But I mean, how do you spend six hundred pounds
a pair of spectacles? It cost one pound? It costs
one pound in tesco and he's look what the taxes?
But did I mentioned earlier? I think I did, doesn't
need to do it?

Speaker 3 (01:11:00):
Hand on heart, Do you wish you were still there?

Speaker 6 (01:11:03):
Hand on heart wherea you? Yes? Absolutely?

Speaker 16 (01:11:06):
I not only do I wish I was still there,
I'm absolutely confident that things would be much much better.

Speaker 6 (01:11:11):
If I was.

Speaker 16 (01:11:11):
But that's a you know, I think every every politicians
entitled to that type of vanity and delusion.

Speaker 6 (01:11:17):
But I genuinely believe it. I really, I think it's
a I look at a lot of this stuff's happening now.
I don't understand what they're doing.

Speaker 3 (01:11:25):
Listen, if you're as entertaining as you've been. You know
DUCO events, Duco. You know Joseph Parker, the boxer, I
think so, yes, yes, anyway, Joseph Parker is promoted by DUCO.
So they're promoting him as a heavyweight. You're a heavyweight.
They know about heavyweights, right, they're putting us in the
ring together. No, I don't think so. Anyway. Listen, looking
forward to seeing you in the country.

Speaker 6 (01:11:46):
Take care, long longing to see you.

Speaker 3 (01:11:49):
Nice guy, isn't he Well? I liked him anyway. Boris
Johnson talked to him last week in hotel in New York.
The General Capital. Long lunch is what he's actually going
to be there would Juke of events Duku for a
part of the interview, he's we got the video, we're
going to put the video up or not really, we're
not going to do that. You know, he's waving his book.

(01:12:09):
Halfway through He's like he's everything you thought. He's complete
and out of shambles, but fantastic with it. The General
Capital Long Lunch Boris Johnson unleashed. It is Tuesday, December three,
and it's between twelve thirty and four and it's at
the cordyce in Auckland. You probably won't want to miss
out A twenty.

Speaker 1 (01:12:27):
Two The Mike Costing Breakfast with Bailey's Real Estate News
Dogs they now.

Speaker 3 (01:12:35):
Earlier this year we talked about the amazing Central Otago
wine MacArthur Ridge a Southern Tour twenty two. Now Mcarthurridge
is Alexandra location more than ours drive from the typical
wine growing regions of Central Otago in fact makes it
this country's southernmost vineyard, which they credit for the superb taste.
So Southern Tour twenty two became the most awarded twenty
twenty two pen and Wire in the country, including picking

(01:12:57):
up the Decanter Award that's the most prestigious one of all.
Also received the Best in Show at the Decanta World
Wine Awards in London. Scored an amazing ninety seven out
of one hundred. Bad News this remarkable wine from a
new player in the region that's sold out gone good news.
MacArthur Ridge's twenty twenty three vintage was named Champion pinin
Wa and Champion Wine at this year's New Zealand International

(01:13:18):
Wine Show. This one you can still get, so MacArthur
think summer drinking, barbecues, family round for Christmas MacArthur Ridge
Southern Tour twenty three and to find out more, maybe
order some for yourself and dare I suggest at a
pretty damn good price MacArthur Ridge dot com. It's one
word Macarthurridge dot comsci like Boris is a strong base

(01:13:41):
from a UK education system which keeps them grounded politically.
Mike Car's at Oxford with Boris. One of the most
intelligent people you'll meet, possibly too much so for the
global wokeness that seems to have gotten a grip. It's
not a bad point. His self discipline or lack of
probably didn't help him much along the way, but I've
always been a massive fan of Boris. Johnson read his

(01:14:04):
books followed as columns, knew some way, somehow he would
get to be the Prime Minister and was disappointed as
much as I suspect himself. Then he basically blew it.
I do believe him that if that hung in there,
he may not have won this time round, but it
would have been a hell of a lot closer than
it was now. Speaking of education, locked in since twenty
seventeen has been in Britain the price of going to university.

(01:14:27):
They locked it in at nine thousand, two, one hundred
and fifty pounds. But the Labor Party, freshly anointed into
the halls of power, have decided that's far too little
and we'll need to play a great deal more than that.
So they've announced this morning a rise in tertiary fees,
which of course will have gone down an absolute treat
Rod Little lit at the retailer. The News, which is

(01:14:47):
next Team Reviews talk.

Speaker 1 (01:14:48):
Se your trusted source for news and fews. The Mic
Hosking Breakfast with the range Rover. That's the lah designed
to intrigue and use togs.

Speaker 3 (01:15:03):
Be Mike. I'm in California as a New Zealand US citizen.
I've already voted. Despite California being a liberal state, I
must say I've seen far more Trump science flag shirts, bandits,
et cetera. Based solely on visuals. I have to say
Trump actually has a chance in California. I can tell
you for something that he doesn't, although I take it
you've seen a lot of Trump flags and that's fantastic.
But I will eat my hat if Trump wins California,

(01:15:24):
though it still remains to be seen what happens tomorrow.
I fly out for New Zealand tonight and I'm actually
glad I'll be home in New Zealand before election day.
The threat of craziness on and after the election appears
very possible. Well, we'll look forward to seeing you back
in the country. Stand twenty three to nine.

Speaker 14 (01:15:40):
International Correspondence with ends and eye insurance, Peace of mind
for New Zealand business.

Speaker 3 (01:15:45):
We go one little bit. It's right morning to you, mate.
So nine two hundred and fifty pounds has been the
price of entry to a university stuck there since twenty seventeen.
You don't know how lucky you are. So labors come
in and put it up by how much and how
much political capital do they burn? And doing that.

Speaker 7 (01:16:03):
About three hundred quid and they've done quite a lot
with the young people. You know, tuition fees which are
not popular. They're not popular on the left with people
who believe that this isn't imposition on the young people
of the country, or on the right who believe the
same thing, but also would add that the universities are

(01:16:24):
a broken muddle of capitalism and are failing in every
possible way. And the connngary young children are our elder children.
The tourists have kept them at that rate for seven
years and labor has put it up that will go
down very very badly. Indeed with the student vote which

(01:16:47):
is eighty percent labor twenty percent.

Speaker 3 (01:16:50):
Peren So what happens I mean, is it the same
line we don't have the money, wish we could, but
we don't.

Speaker 7 (01:16:58):
Well, no one will grasp the there are two nettles,
two big nettles. Well, it is that British universities are
badly run at the moment. They don't know how to
raise their money and they're all failing and it's a
real problem for the universities. And then the second thing,
which is that we fetishize universities. There are too many

(01:17:20):
of them offering useless degrees to people for vast amount
of money which they can't afford to pay, and to
have this debt hanging around them, and no one is
prepared to address those two main stem problems with our universities.

Speaker 3 (01:17:36):
It's amazing. The more I talk to you, the more
problems you have, the same problems we have here. It's
exactly what's going on. Laura Trot speaking of university. So
she'll be shadow education, Neil O'Brien, shadow education, Sorry, shadow education.
Who are these people? Are they rock stars? Are they

(01:17:57):
going to take you to the promised Land?

Speaker 7 (01:18:00):
They're not rock stars, None of them are at the moment.
And a number of large figures have left the stage
and said they won't be part of Kerrie Beidenof's administration,
including Jeremy Hunt, thank you Lord, and various others Grand Shafts,
for example, James Cleverly, who still thinks he ought to

(01:18:21):
be leader of the party. James James relayed upon your
surname quickly. So there's all that. But what she has
is a clear mandate, a clear mandate from the party.
You know, we talked about this in fairness. I said

(01:18:41):
sixty forty. It was a little bit closer than that,
but not terribly much closer. She does have the support
of her party, well, she has the support of people
like Boris Johnson who are popular within her party, and
I think that she will be a pretty strong figure
when it comes to fighting Sekre Starma, both in parliament

(01:19:04):
and outside parliament. She knows her own mind.

Speaker 3 (01:19:07):
Sure, so to two part question. Very early days obviously,
but you get a sense about it. Does she look
and feel like she's at peace and comfortable in the
job or does she look like she's feeling away sickond
part PMQ's when she up for the first time.

Speaker 7 (01:19:22):
Yeah, I don't know when she's up for the first
time at the moment, because I don't know when officially
Richie Susnacharith is no longer the leader. But okay, does
she look as if she's up for it. She has
looked as if she's up for her for two or
three years. Mate. She is not short of self confidence
and that may come back to bite her at some
point in time. I think she'll be fine and we'll

(01:19:46):
look forward to the first time she takes on Starma
at question time.

Speaker 3 (01:19:50):
How many questions have there been? We haven't talked about
this for a few weeks, but you go back to
Southport in the tragedy of and a lot of people
said what they said, including people like Farage, and then
all of a sudden these secondary charges come along and
a lot of people are going old on here, Why
didn't you do this in the first place? How contentious
has this all got.

Speaker 7 (01:20:10):
It's not that contentious at the moment, but I think
it will become very contentious. This is Acel Rudy Kabana
who stabbed a number of children in South bull to death,
and it's subsequently been found out that he was growing
rice in his home as well as as well as

(01:20:32):
being in possession of a book military studies in the
she had against the Tyrants, which is al Qaeda Manual.
And we were all assured this was nothing to do
with terrorism. We're still being assured it's nothing to do
with terrorism. That's what Serena Kennedy, Chief Council will have
merseeside said. But this is rubbish and this is really corrosive.

(01:20:56):
They are keeping information from the public in this country
and that fuels the kind of corrosive conspiracy series which
caused those riots at the end of July this year.

Speaker 3 (01:21:08):
And Quincy Jones Rod ninety one, not a bad life.

Speaker 7 (01:21:13):
A brilliant man. Just one quick thing to say about him.
Nothing to do with the EUK obviously. He wrote the theme
music for one of the greatest films in American history,
In the Heat of the Night, and that film won
every single oscar going at the nineteen sixty eight Academy Awards,
you know, from Rod Steiger for Leading Actor, for Best Film,

(01:21:37):
for Best Direction, everything apart from two there were two
people who didn't who didn't win, and one of them
didn't even get nominated. Sydney Poitier was never nominated, did
not win for Best Actor, and Quincy Jones for that
brilliant soundtrack, did not even get nominated. So it's one
of those things when we look at Hollywood now and

(01:21:59):
say they're too politically correct, they're bending over themselves. We
have to remember the past as well, and Quincy Churns
surely deserved an Oscar for that film.

Speaker 3 (01:22:10):
Well, they're nice to talk to you, Rod little back
on Thursday for you just quickly, private schools as part
of the business of the tax bat as a result
of the budget the other day, they're taking legal actions.
So it'll be interesting to watch that. It's been announced
that the borrowing and there's a lot of it from
the new government in the UK has now reached its
highest level ever. And of course with interest rates going up,

(01:22:30):
they pay more on the interest, so they're sinking slowly
but surely. And I know yesterday a new report out
from the National Audit Office Grenfell, Remember Grenfell all those
years ago burnt down. They set a target of twenty
thirty five to go around, check all the buildings and
sort them all out. Are they going to reach that
target according to the new report.

Speaker 6 (01:22:48):
No?

Speaker 3 (01:22:49):
Are they going to come even close according to the
new report. No, So once again, a lot of promises,
not a lot of action. Eighty five.

Speaker 1 (01:22:56):
The Mic Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on Radio how
It by News Talk said, be.

Speaker 3 (01:23:02):
Love listening to your interviews with Rod Anthony. A lot
of people do. Mike. Some months ago you presented home
ownership figures showing highest home ownership on record. So why
is this new headline showing home ownership more difficult?

Speaker 6 (01:23:14):
Bruce?

Speaker 3 (01:23:15):
As always with the news, it is in the subtlety
and neurons of the detail of the day. What I
think you're referring to is the census. I do a
couple of figures on a regular basis, and that is
first home buyers and the first home buyers numbers are
anywhere between twenty five, twenty six and twenty seven percent,
so at any given time, normally it's over a quarter.
A quarter of sales are first home buyers. So that

(01:23:38):
belies the myth that no one can afford a home
if you're young and new and you don't have the deposit.
It simply isn't true because first home buyers are the
biggest buyers in the marketplace at any given time. What
I think you're referring to is the census, and the
census numbers that came out the other day said home
ownership has gone up, and that belies another myth that
floats around, and that is that more and more people

(01:24:00):
can't afford a house and therefore more and more people
are renting. It is simply not true. What you're then
bringing into the conversation today is the survey that's been
done by Kiwibank, which is an impression. It's not stats,
it's not figures. It's just do you think you want
to own a home? Do you think you can afford
a home? Do you think you will ever own a home?
And people say yes or no. But what people think

(01:24:21):
they can do and what they do do are completely
different things. And that's why it's important to work out
what we're talking about when we talk about specifics versus
what we're talking about this morning, which is a general mood.
And the general mood, according to the Kiwi Bank survey
is a lot of people don't think they will be
able to own a home, but they will be. And
I speak from experience and having kids, etc. Is that

(01:24:43):
when you're nineteen or twenty and you're starting out in
the world and you're lumbered down with debt and you
don't know how you're going to make enough money, it
all seems all too hard. Twenty years time, when you're forty,
you'll be amazed at what's happened and how quickly life changes.
So just to you need to differentiate between the specifics,
nuance and subtlety is everything Ten Away from nine.

Speaker 2 (01:25:04):
The Mike hosting Rapist with a Vida retirement.

Speaker 3 (01:25:07):
Communities News not getting a lot of coverage. It might
be because it's limited to christ Church, but David Seymour,
who's the Associate Minister of Finance, announced yesterday that this
Natural Hazard's Commission, the NHC, which is formerly called the
Earthquake Commission EQC program is being wound up. It's the
on sold support package. So this was when christ juge,

(01:25:29):
when you bought a house that had been repaired and
you discovered that hadn't been repaired properly. And there's a
scandal too long or is the event so large that
you couldn't expect anything else? Anyway, that particular package needs
to be wound up. We need to put a limitation
on it. So what they're doing otherwise it's just going
to go on forever and cost a fortune. Because the
initial estimate is two hundred and fifty million dollars, it's

(01:25:51):
blown out to seven hundred and seventeen million, so you know,
triple and rising. Limiting the settlement amounts to one point
five times the current rtable capital of the property. Fair
enough new deadlines. Deeds must be signer than thirty business days.
Construction must start within six months. Fair enough project management
costs before construction starts must be limited to four percent
of the total payment. Surprise they didn't happen, mind you.

(01:26:12):
It's the Labor Party, Labor government. Surprise they didn't have
any limitations in on this. Because what's stopping you going
and you bought your house and you need repairs, and
you go, oh, while you're there, little pergola, why not
hey that deck? When you say the deck's four by four,
could it be four by seven? What's stopping you doing that?

(01:26:37):
And all of a sudden, your budget's gone from tw
hundred and fifty million to seven hundred and seventeen. And
then David Seymour goes hold on from December twenty three
further limit. The further limit will be applied if the
homeowner has bought another new home. So, in other words,
you still got your wrecked one extending your deck and
then you go by another one. No problems. It's say
it had creep, it had creep all over it didn't
it five minutes away from nine.

Speaker 2 (01:26:58):
Trending now keeping Kiwi's healthy all year round?

Speaker 3 (01:27:03):
Right, So we got Peanut squirrel. We got Mark Longo,
who rescued Peanut seven years ago, and he was living
in Minnesota at the time, and he'd earned a social
media following about Peanut million people for Peanut following them
on social media. He recently moved to New York and
in New York not allowed to have pets so well
because the pets have got rabies, and they they had

(01:27:26):
the squirrel and they also had by this stage to
rescue raccoon. So a raccoon and a squirrel. So then
the neighbor, because this is New York, got ratted out.
They ratted him out and they go that that gay
next door to me, he's got a squirrel. You're not
allowed a squirrel.

Speaker 15 (01:27:42):
S free Cosmopolitan in New York.

Speaker 3 (01:27:44):
Pakistani Nava and so they said, it's a melting pot Glyn,
I know. And so that person deleted all their social
media because they got a lot of hate. His house
got raided and the squirrel and the raccoon are gone,
and they got put down. Because it's New York. We
take him out in, we shoot him, we put him
in the Hudson River. Okay, Peanuts, you're dead.

Speaker 6 (01:28:06):
Will go on.

Speaker 15 (01:28:09):
This is the reaction from watching an either side of
the Sopranos.

Speaker 6 (01:28:11):
It's a nice reason.

Speaker 3 (01:28:14):
This is the reaction for Mack, who's got a wafe.
She's the one who's crying.

Speaker 20 (01:28:18):
It not only tears my family apart, but Peanut was
the cornerstone of our nonprofit animal rescue and ten to
twelve dec officers rated my house as if I was
a drug dealer.

Speaker 8 (01:28:30):
I was sat outside my house for five hours. I
had to get a police escort to my bathroom. I
wasn't even allowed to feed my rescue horses breakfast or lunch.
I was sitting sat there like a criminal. After they
interrogated my wife to check out her immigration status. They

(01:28:50):
got a search warrant, four departments and a judge signed
off on a search warrant for a squirrel in a raccoon,
and then they took them and killed them.

Speaker 3 (01:29:03):
See if Trump had said that you were a city's mental,
wouldn't you?

Speaker 13 (01:29:08):
He goes, has anybody checked on the immigration status of
for Trump's wife?

Speaker 3 (01:29:11):
That's a tremendous number of departments and resources if what
he says is true. I mean breaking news. He at
rescue horses as well.

Speaker 1 (01:29:19):
Here and I couldn't kind are they named breakfast and lunch?

Speaker 3 (01:29:24):
And where does he keep them? It's New York for
goodness sake. Anyway, that's a lot of resource going into that.
Back tomorrow morning from six on the mic asking Breakfast,
Happy Days.

Speaker 1 (01:29:44):
For more from the mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to
news talks. It'd be from six am weekdays or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio,

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