Full Show Podcast: 07 April 2025

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Your source of breaking news, challenging opinion and honored fackt
the Mike Hosking Breakfast with a Vita Retirement Communities, Life
Your Way news togs.

Speaker 2 (00:10):
He had been body and welcome today for New Zealand Market,
who opened for the first time since Saturday's bloodbath.

Speaker 3 (00:15):
In New York.

Speaker 2 (00:15):
We've got new rules again around Granny Flats, new data
on our shopping habits on Timu and shine PM is in.
Our lads are in the country box after eight o'clock.
Of course, Steve Price would be Australian election update.

Speaker 3 (00:26):
That we've got new polling there.

Speaker 2 (00:28):
Richard Arnold stateside psyccome for the week seven past six.
Now here's the problem with what happens Saturday, our time.
No one really saw the Trump blitzkrig coming, and those
who know what they're talking about still don't understand it
and can't explain it. But they thought would happen, didn't.
It was supposed to be a countermeasure. If you tarif
us twenty percent, we'll match you at twenty percent. Except
that's not what happened. Countries were America's on the right

(00:51):
side of the Ledger got whacked. Australia countries with true
fear trade a balanced portfolio got whacked New Zealand, countries
who dropped their tariffs whacked Israel and Vietnam. It might
might be a game freak the world out negotiated away,
or it might might be the biggest political risk and
economic cockup of the modern age. Certainly, the markets didn't

(01:13):
like it, and if you think that doesn't scare people,
you don't understand humanity. Even bright people like Marco Rubio
have been unable to mount a cogent response to it.

Speaker 3 (01:20):
All.

Speaker 2 (01:21):
The idea that the whole world will down tools, pack
up shot, move to America to begin a new golden
age in utopia is fascical. On Shoring is what it's called.
And some may expand or invest, but the vast majority
can't and won't. Nike and Vietnam isn't suddenly making shoes Idaho,
because if they did, you couldn't afford them. And that's
the simple truth of business and trade and borders and market.

(01:41):
Some people make stuff on volume and price, and you
don't do that in first world countries. If Americans can't
afford sneakers and cars, the Republicans are toast next year
is the midterms. Ted Cruz said so over the weekend,
and he's a Republican. The Republicans will panic, and rightly so.
China will be a winner. It might well be free
trades ultimately a winner if the world or chunks of

(02:01):
a coalesce. The thing about politics is normally there's logic.
You don't have to agree with it, but it can
be explained. This can't be. Trump isn't a genius that
has seen something no one else has. He's overplayed his
hand and the fallout is only just beginning.

Speaker 1 (02:18):
News of the world in ninety seconds.

Speaker 2 (02:20):
So the world remains in scrambled mode. Of course, post
this week in market meltdown, the Brits are working their
tails off to try and fend off a full scale retaliation.

Speaker 3 (02:28):
Whether it's the Prime Minister, the Chancellor, of the Business extry,
of the whole of government.

Speaker 4 (02:31):
We've been engaging closely with businesses to make sure that
we can understand what we can do to support them
and support British industy in British jobs.

Speaker 2 (02:37):
Former Trade chief doesn't see how the UK can get
a special carve out.

Speaker 5 (02:41):
We got rebuffed, we got stiffed, okay, but then everybody
else got stiffed as well. I certainly don't think you
should be working on the assumption that we have some
kind of absolutely favored position.

Speaker 2 (02:52):
Correct Elon meantime, was appearing via zoom at the Italian
League's weekend Soireraze, suggesting it'll all work out fine.

Speaker 6 (02:59):
Let's agree that both Europe and the United States should
move ideally in my view, to a zero caraph situation,
effectively creating a free trade zone between Europe and North America.

Speaker 2 (03:11):
A couple of British things one and got two labor
in peace arriving in Israel for a look see at Gaza,
but they got tossed out.

Speaker 7 (03:17):
Israel is supposed to be an ally and you ought
to be able to tell your friends the truth. And frankly,
Israel should stop being so thin skinned and actually listen
to the criticism that there is being made of Israel
around the world, because a lot of it is legitimate.

Speaker 2 (03:30):
In two, it's local body election time next month, and
the Tories not overly push this is going.

Speaker 8 (03:35):
To be a very challenging set of results for Conservices.
The last time we fought these was four years ago
Boris Johnson was Prime Minister. There was a vaccine bounce.
We won an unprecedented two thirds of the votes. New
party had ever done that in history, So this is
going to be a very tough night.

Speaker 3 (03:51):
It's correct as well.

Speaker 2 (03:51):
And then to France where Marina spent the week in
running up the troops and reminding everybody.

Speaker 9 (03:56):
For those who try to get.

Speaker 1 (03:59):
Us to.

Speaker 10 (04:01):
Will underble, not understand that.

Speaker 1 (04:04):
We will never anneal.

Speaker 11 (04:06):
We are upright, We are standing up for people and
for France.

Speaker 2 (04:12):
Finally, very large longitudinal study in the US has found
diet is your biggest factor in healthy aging, more so
than exercise, more so than smoking. The workers from Harvard
involves over one hundred thousand and the forties, fifties, and
sixties been going through over three decades. Only nine percent
of people followed what was considered a healthy diet, which
is you know your fruits and legitibles, your brains, your nuts,

(04:32):
et cetera, which meant they were the only ones who
were classified as aging healthily, that is, living two seventy
without a chronic disease such as diabetes, art disease, or
having a physical impairment. They also conclude starting earlier brings
more benefits later in the life years of the world
in ninety are the only good news to come out
of America over the weekend was retrospective. Of course, we
got the payrolls for March. We'll look more at that
with Greg in the moment, but it was a decent number.

Speaker 3 (04:54):
Twelve past six.

Speaker 1 (04:57):
The mic Asking Breakfast, Full Show podcas on a hard
radio colored by news talks.

Speaker 3 (05:03):
Eppy, wonderful scenes in Rome.

Speaker 2 (05:07):
A couple of hours ago, Pope Frances turned up surprise
appearance and Peter Square on a Sunday appeared on stage
in wheelchair oxygen oxygen oxygen tube attached Hello to everybody,
Happy Sunday to all of you, Thank you very much.
Not original, but we'll take it. Fifteen past six is
the best thing now from Devin Funds Management, Greg, how

(05:29):
are you.

Speaker 12 (05:31):
In the US?

Speaker 2 (05:31):
Market's fine numbers to make the eyes water?

Speaker 3 (05:36):
Ay?

Speaker 12 (05:36):
Oh, it's the second day of carnage, so you're the
daily on twenty and thirty one points the nasdack now
on beer market Church that was down five point eight percent,
Big tech names whacked Apple down seven percent, down sixteen
percent two days. S and T five had the biggest
discline since March twenty twenty. We remember what that was
for that was down six percent, seventeen percent, lowest thance

(05:57):
februys record high, and it's lost incredible five trillion dollars
in market cap in two sessions. So Trump, we know
he's not too bad that he was off playing golf.
He said the reaction was all going pretty well and
the stock market would ultimately boom. But yeah, look, it
really is no joking around of might. I mean, I
think what Trump's dished out it can only be described
as economic vandalism, procession in risk staverism. There's one argument

(06:19):
that tariffs a RecA cycle back to text cards that
could help support consumer demand, but it's going to drive inflation.
Drome pil would have noted as much on Frida. I said,
inflation risks is going to become more persistent. Guess the
big question there is where the Trump used to look
at the stock market, a build as a scorecard will
cake to some pressure. And also from outside, we're here
and taking financily is on their way to talk some

(06:40):
common sense in Florida and maybe trading partners erecting a
little bit differently to what he thought. So China's come
out with retiliatory tariffs of thirty four percent on US
products so well, and truly in trade war territory we've
hed Europe. They're going to talk more about unity. So
is America going to become isolated? I suppose the big
check is going to be forced on in Politically, it'll
be aware of history in a lot of talk about

(07:01):
how the last time we saw tariffs as large, we're
back in the nineteen thirties with the smooth haly terr Effact.
Now that oltimately was designed to I guess, make the
Great Depression less bad and actually tend to make it
make it for an even more protracted downturn. And the
Republicans they lost that nine to thirty two election in
the landslide, So I think there's gonna be a lot

(07:21):
of pressure on Republican representatives from their voters. Rememb about
sixty percent of Americans invest in the stock markets, the
ville of there four o one case, or the retirement
accounts will have been absolutely hammered by the sell off,
So that news is going to get back to them.
And we're already hearing right that Republicans are looking or
some Republicans are supported of bipartisan bill to take tariff

(07:41):
out back to Congress, So we have to see how
this plays out for us down here. I guess it's
just worth remembering that. You know, we've seen market selloffs before.
We saw it during COVID. It's all about sort of
trying to keep one's head, and you know, probably the
worst time to sales are in fears rolling the market.
But you were obviously very disturbing. We'll have to see
how this all plays out.

Speaker 2 (08:00):
Yeah, they're fascinating time. So we got the alluded to
the job numbers. They are way better than thought though.

Speaker 12 (08:04):
Yeah there's some brightness theory least. So the US economy
isn't a good spot. Yeah for now anyway, So I
turned in twenty eight thousand jobs crowded March. It was
one hundred thousand more than forecast. So despite the best
efens of the DOGE team, public sector hiring was actually
up slightly. Private private services sect to PAILS, they were
by one hundred and ninety seven thousand. That was after

(08:25):
the previous months ninety thousand gain, and private health education
services that saw the biggest gain seventy seven thousand, and
quite interesting one Mike was hiring and leisure and hospital
that was down seventeen thousand in February, but they added
forty three thousand jobs. So the previous two months payrolls
were revised down, but average olly earnings they ticked up
zero point three percent. Unemployment also ticked up slightly to

(08:46):
four point two percent, but that was as expected. So
resilient jobs picture for now. But yeah, I guess the
jewey remains out on how it will look if there's
no flipping on Trump's terror policy.

Speaker 2 (08:56):
Indeed, bring it back home this week big one for
the RB.

Speaker 3 (08:58):
What do we got?

Speaker 12 (09:00):
Most people were expecting quarter percent. The Abend's flagged this
as well. Of course we've got a new acting heat
as well. But you know, is this the time to
be holding the line? Maybe make it three in a row,
another fifty basis point card. I think that the case
is pretty clear. The three point seventy five percent neutral
where the economy is not being stimulated or constricted as
below three percent, we should be there now. Inflations at

(09:22):
the bottom of the range. You we're crawling out of recession,
confidences low in most metrics, with unemployment rising, and then
we've got a trade war, you know, and that's going
to deliver arguably a further deflationary shock. So you look
at prices of goods, they're going to be going up
for Americans, but we could see a lot of those
goods previously destined for the US go to other parts
of the globe, including here. So just an aside, we

(09:44):
just said, we see the great redirection here. Maybe we
get goods rerouted to other countries of lower terriffroats for
the make the way to the US. But I think
this could actually be a deflationary shock. We're in the
middle of another economic shock, it seems, Mike, and it's
not really a time to be delaying getting rates down
for this of it. So you know the world's fundamentally
changed since February. But let's see right and make numbers.

Speaker 3 (10:05):
Please.

Speaker 12 (10:06):
Yes, the downs mentioned down five and a half percent,
thirty eight.

Speaker 9 (10:09):
Three one four one.

Speaker 12 (10:10):
A Trump sh represent said that's still going to have
fifty thousand under his term. Let's see about that. S
and P five hundred down six percent, five zer seven four,
nastick down five point eight percent, for seed down five
percent in the UK, nickoy down two point eight percent,
a SX two hundred that was down two point four percent.

Speaker 3 (10:25):
We had a lot better.

Speaker 12 (10:26):
Actually, seventy X fifty was down point nine percent, Goal
down seventy seven dollars three thousand and thirty eight, and
ounce oil down five dollars sixty two Baroso deflationary shock.

Speaker 3 (10:35):
There.

Speaker 12 (10:36):
Currency markets we're down three over three percent against the
US fifty six. For the key we ninety two point
seven outs, Assie are up one point two percent there,
forty three point four Sterling eighty two point three year
and just quickly this week we've got the US banks
kicking off the earnings season, and let's see what happens
obviously on the tar front and the back back dating
the air or going backwards. But locally we've got business

(10:58):
confidence business pm I the big one. The abbeyens said, yeah,
the Pobby cut by core percent, but yeah, maybe should
cut by half percent.

Speaker 2 (11:05):
Well sold, Greg appreciate at Greg Smith, Devon Funds Management,
Paski Cross I'm reading about over the weekend between twenty
twenty and twenty twenty one, they grew their revenue from
around one point four billion to two point three so
an extraordinary story. Profitability that operating marge and jump from
seventeen percent to twenty nine percent and it's all about personalization.

(11:25):
Gibbets two hundred and seventy one million dollars last year
in Gibbet sales, over just over eight percent of the
brand's revenue. Seventy five percent of people who buy crocs
by Gibbets success story. Not too many of those flating
around at the moment.

Speaker 3 (11:39):
Six twenty one, Your News Talk said, be good.

Speaker 1 (11:43):
The Mike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talk.

Speaker 2 (11:48):
SEDB, just running through if you haven't caught up over
the weekend. China went back at thirty four, as Greg said,
so they've gone tip for tat. So that came as
a surprise to the Republicans. Z Barbwe is a good
example of a country that did have eighteen percent tariffs.
They've dropped them. They've said we want a better relationship
with America. They've dropped them. So Trump will look at

(12:09):
that and go fantastic. See what's happening. They're folding already.
Problem is the trade between Zimbabwe and the United States.
It doesn't exist. They did one hundred and eleven million
dollars worth of business, so the whole thing's pointless. Jaguar
Land drover as I'm sure you're also aware they've paused
shipments to America for now, which means good for the
left hand drive market around the world. Presumably you got

(12:30):
more Jaguars and land Drivers because they're always in big demand.
Toy prices, and this is China and Vietnam. What's the
price for a toy, So that's a discretionary product. Fifty
percent they think fifty percent more expensive, So you're not
buying toys, hey you, So that's material and then the
big one. So yes, China's come and retaliated. What about
the EU. They've not done anything yet, but they're working

(12:51):
the phones as we speak. It's still Sunday there, so
stand by for that six twenty.

Speaker 1 (12:56):
Five trending now with Chemist Wells keeping Kiwi's healthy all
year round.

Speaker 2 (13:01):
The movie news DC and Warner Brothers. They released a
five minute sneak peek of their Superhero movie, released exclusively
for one hundred people add CinemaCon before they then put
it out on YouTube. It also came at the same
time as their stock tanked. Of course, Warner is down
twenty one percent of the last forty eight hours.

Speaker 3 (13:17):
Mind you, who.

Speaker 2 (13:17):
Isn't no need to thank us?

Speaker 1 (13:22):
Sir as, we will not appreciate it. We have no
consciousness whatsoever. Merely automaton's here to serve meet twelve.

Speaker 2 (13:31):
She's news.

Speaker 1 (13:35):
He looked at fourteen froudrat bot, damage to bladder, kidney,
large intestine, lungs with a healthy dose of yellow suns
will have you upp an Adam in no time.

Speaker 2 (14:02):
Is the best part about that? The music Superman's out
July eleven in cinemas. One hundred people rounded up at CinemaCon.
Then everyone can see it five minutes later. I don't
understand the thinking about one. There By the way, polling
out this morning one you miss have missed the weekend
locally Prime Minister with us after seven thirty. So two
poles last week in this country that showed the government
are reasonably speaking on track. In other words, if the

(14:23):
election was held today, they would win. Big movements, really
interesting movements in Australia.

Speaker 3 (14:28):
Yet another pot.

Speaker 2 (14:29):
In fact, two poles out over the weekend in Australia
are the movers on to labor. So whatever contests seemingly
there was supposed to be as the coalition sort of
got attacked together and suddenly looked electable, that seems now
to have gone and labor are kind of at this point. Anyway,
Home Free will talk to Steve Price about that after
thirty this morning.

Speaker 3 (14:49):
Meantime, the news.

Speaker 1 (14:50):
Is next, the news and the news makers the Mic
Hosking breakfast with the range Rover vi La design to
intrigue can use Togsdad b.

Speaker 2 (15:02):
Bully Michael watched the F one over the weekend. Couple
of observations. RB botched the tire strategy for laws and correct.
Did the same to Yuki and a GP last year.
Yuki no closer to the stap and correct, traded downforce
full speed to control the car. All of that's correct
laws and not as confident at RB as last year.
I'd cut him some slack. It's one race. He needs
a couple of others. A note Helbert Marco this morning

(15:23):
says we want points in Bahrain and Saudi Arabia over
the next couple of weeks. Of the pressures on Mike,
can you tell me when if one gets exciting followed
the leader yesterday was so boring. As a recent F
one follower, I'm losing enthusiasm quickly. Fair point, it was
a race for the officionado. I take your point and
it is reasonable, but they were expecting rain. Rain comes

(15:44):
with a safety car, safety car, meat strategies up in
the air.

Speaker 3 (15:47):
It didn't happen. Hence it was a.

Speaker 2 (15:48):
Procession twenty two minutes away from seven. Richard Arnold on
you know what mistakes in a couple of moments meantime
back here. Interesting insight into our prison sentencing all sentences
this morning with a claim that these short sentences might
be doing more harm than good comes to us from
the recently retired chair of the Parole Boards to Ron Young,
who is will it's.

Speaker 3 (16:06):
A very good morning to you.

Speaker 13 (16:08):
Good morning Mike.

Speaker 2 (16:08):
Just a couple of myths versus realities. Do the gangs
run the place and do they recruit?

Speaker 13 (16:14):
They recruit. They don't run the place completely, but they
do run some of the units of the prisons. They recruit.

Speaker 2 (16:21):
Right, the ability to reform? If you want to make
yourself a better person, can you?

Speaker 13 (16:27):
You can? Sometimes it's delayed and unattractively delayed, but you
can make yourself a better person.

Speaker 3 (16:34):
How much of this is about basic resource?

Speaker 2 (16:36):
If everyone who wanted to put their hand up and
say I want to reform myself could get access to that,
it would be a better place.

Speaker 13 (16:44):
Yeah, quite a lot of it's about resources and huge
todays and getting appropriate rehabilitation and reintegration. And of course
that means a lot of people sitting there cost of
the tax bayer without being able to advance. So in
one sense, the economics make no sense at all.

Speaker 2 (17:02):
So in that I assume the people who've got the
purse rings understand that. Is it deliberate on the government's
part to under resource or we simply don't have money
and that's just life.

Speaker 13 (17:13):
I don't know the answer to that. Of course that's
a matter for the government, but it's certainly been the
situation in prisons for a long time now. So of course,
you know, money for prisons isn't the most popular political slogan.

Speaker 2 (17:27):
No, exactly, And that's why I asked the question, I mean,
how much of what we do these days? And you
said on a parole board knowing that the public really
just want a lot of people in a lot of
jails for a long time.

Speaker 13 (17:38):
Yeah, we understand that, and we understand the sort of
instinct punished. What we're trying to do, though, is the
crime they've committed has already been committed. What we're trying
to do is I'm sure they don't commit any further crime.
So we're focused on public safety and that's the most
important thing, and that's what drives what we do.

Speaker 2 (17:57):
Has the recidivism rate changed dramatically at all over the years.

Speaker 13 (18:03):
It's gone up and down abat but it's hard to generalize.
It depends very much on the kind of offending and
the kind of rehabilitation that's provided. If the rehabilitation is good,
well researched, and well known, then it can reduce offending
quite significantly. And the sophistication of those programs has developed

(18:23):
significantly over the years.

Speaker 2 (18:25):
Your argument would be, if we had the resource and
we put the people into the programs, it would be
on the right track and recidivism or the rate would
drop exactly.

Speaker 3 (18:36):
Okay.

Speaker 2 (18:38):
Is that a hard sell to a skeptical public.

Speaker 13 (18:41):
It is, And I understand that people want longer sentences
because they feel they'll be safer, but actually the opposite
is true, they won't be safer. The key we can't
do anything about the crime that someone's committed who's already
in prison, But as I said, we can try and
do something about the crimes that they could commit, reducing
reoffending and that's putting huge effort into rehabilidation.

Speaker 2 (19:05):
The perception from the public that the judiciary is soft
and so are you guys on the parole board fair.

Speaker 13 (19:10):
Or not not fair? I mean New Zealand has a
really high rate of imprisonment. It's got a very high
rate of remand may be one of the highest in
the world. So and look at America, you know, the
highest rate of imprisonment and the highest longer sentences. It's
a good illustration of why long sentences don't make the

(19:32):
public safer.

Speaker 2 (19:33):
Nice to talk to you appreciate it very much, soar
on young outgoing parole board chair. It is nineteen minutes
away from seven past. I can feel the economies turning.
Own a small successful commercial building in Auckland. Last two
years had four various retail offices empty. This last six
weeks have leased out three of these to various tenancies.
Fourth being upgraded after kicking out the tenants. So happy
for the country. Very good to hear about it. Let's

(19:55):
talk the markets. Richard's next eighteen to two.

Speaker 1 (19:58):
The Mic Hosking break most full show podcast on iHeartRadio
card by newstalksb.

Speaker 2 (20:05):
Morning Mike Liam Lawson was overshadowed by a teammate. Had
you in qualifying and race pace? He clearly has some
catching up to do. It's the most salient point of
the weekend. Had you got points, had you qualified eighth,
finished eighth?

Speaker 3 (20:17):
Liam didn't.

Speaker 2 (20:18):
He needs to be as fast as his teammate, if
not faster. Problem for Sonoda is, of course they solved nothing.
The car is still undrivable. They got no points. So
McLaren's second and third got more points than for step
in one versus the other.

Speaker 3 (20:29):
Red bull zero. There's your real issue. Six forty five.

Speaker 1 (20:34):
International correspondence on News Dogsbo States we.

Speaker 3 (20:37):
Go, Richard Allen, very good morning to you.

Speaker 14 (20:39):
Good morning.

Speaker 3 (20:40):
Make what a blood bath Saturday? Am?

Speaker 14 (20:43):
Absolutely so. President Trump is returning to the White House.
So afterward basically was three days in hiding. He was
playing golf. A White House statement breaking the Trump made
it to the finals of his own golf club senior championship.

Speaker 1 (20:55):
Well.

Speaker 14 (20:55):
Well, this while the markets have been as you indicate,
in total meltdown, we've seen anti tariff protests in every
state in the country, hundreds of thousands of people turning
out the biggest protests of the modern era with rallies
and more than twelve hundred sites around the place. Tomorrow,
Trump's going to meet with Israel's net Yohu. This has
Americans are panicking over their retirement funds, the stock market

(21:16):
investments that the governments have been promoting here for decades
as retirement plans. Wall Street reopens for trading tomorrow after
that six trillion US dollar That was a race from
the market in the past two sessions. Six trillion not
a simple number to get your head around, is it.
The Dow was off by twenty two hundred points on Friday,
Saturday your time, sixteen hundred the day before. This is

(21:37):
the first time ever that the DOAO has dropped by
fifteen hundred points or more on two consecutive days. There
are some small political cracks starting to show among Republicans.
Elon Musk is suggesting that he might be splitting from
the Trump tariff policy. Here's what he is saying.

Speaker 15 (21:53):
Hopeful, for example, with the tariffs, that's at the end
of the day, I hope it has agreed that both
your and the United States should move ideally in my view,
to a zero tariff situation.

Speaker 14 (22:05):
Such a good talkers, I mean, Trump advises that Kevin
Hassett is saying now that many countries are flooding the
White House phones to talk about the tariffs, which anamallysts
say are not really based on tariffs imposed by other countries.

Speaker 5 (22:17):
More than fifty countries have reached out to the President
to begin a negotiation.

Speaker 16 (22:21):
But they're doing that because they.

Speaker 17 (22:23):
Understand that they bear a lot of the tariffs.

Speaker 5 (22:25):
And so I don't think that you're going to see
a big effect on the consumer in the US.

Speaker 14 (22:29):
Well that's not what the boss of the Fed is saying. Well,
Goldmann Sax has raised the chances for a recession to
about sixty percent. So this is a push, is it
for some negotiation? Well, no, says Trump, and no says
his Commerce secretary Howard Lutnik.

Speaker 18 (22:44):
There's no postponing. They are definitely going to stay in
place for days and weeks. That is sort of obvious.

Speaker 1 (22:50):
The President needs to reset global trade.

Speaker 14 (22:54):
Well that's that's one view, because Lutnik is the dude
who said that it would be no big deal off
time arrived a month late. Another self style economic genie.
He was asked today about why the Penguin Islands heard
McDonald Islands which were included in the Trump tariff list.
Why they were there. CBS's Margaret Brennan asked him.

Speaker 19 (23:12):
Did you use AI to generate this?

Speaker 15 (23:16):
No?

Speaker 12 (23:17):
No, the idea.

Speaker 3 (23:18):
Look, the idea is why aren't they on the list?

Speaker 13 (23:21):
Left off?

Speaker 18 (23:22):
Because the idea what happens is if you leave anything
off the list, the countries that try to basically arbitrage
America go through those countries to US.

Speaker 14 (23:32):
So what Mike China might secretly plot with the penguins
to bypass the tariffs and send containers down there. What
the hell is he talking about? Meantime on the streets
here in recent hours.

Speaker 1 (23:42):
I think America isn't terrible to stract.

Speaker 14 (23:44):
We are not happy and we will not stop.

Speaker 13 (23:51):
Rise.

Speaker 3 (23:53):
He's going in with the chainsaw.

Speaker 16 (23:54):
He doesn't know what he's doing.

Speaker 14 (23:57):
Some of the hundreds of protests. By the way, Trump's
pose a tariff experts Peter Navarro, who spent four months
in prison for contempt of Congress for your a call.
It was Trump's son in law, Jared Kushner who found
Navara when he was checking book titles on Amazon one
time about economics so he could tell his father, and
he had one called death by China partly written by Navarro.

(24:18):
He loved the title, so he recommended Navarro as an
economics aide who, in his pro tariff writings, societed an
expert to support his policies. That economics whiz kid is
ron Vara, who praised Navarro Fulsomely, ron Vara does not exist.
He was invented by Navarro, who simply arranged the letters
of his own name Navarro to create the mythical ron

(24:40):
Vara ro nvaar so the intellectual source of the Trump
tariffs A conjore.

Speaker 2 (24:47):
Loving the Times, Richard Arneld appreciate yours the arbitrage from Lutnik.
There is a point there, not that transpositioning through Penguin
territory is the answer. But there was a guy over
the weekend we're reading about. He's a guy called Krugman
who's a Nobel Prize winner economist. He reckons the EU,
as in the firms within the EU will try and

(25:08):
export the goods via Northern Ireland for reduced tariff. Of course,
Northern Ireland part of England. England's got ten percent, the
EU's got twenty. That sort of stuff happens in trade
all the time. If you put it through one place
for a lower tariff, you've normally got to do something
with the product. You've got to transformat le change it
in some sort of way. He reckons they might be
able to get around it through the the EU deal.

Speaker 3 (25:28):
Ten away from seven.

Speaker 1 (25:29):
The Mike Hosking Breakfast with Bailey's Real Estate News dogs EDB.

Speaker 2 (25:34):
Mike seems obvious that Trump's tariff's crisis is a provoked crisis.
The question is now to understand the ulterior and tensions
and next steps. That's possible, Mike. There seems to be
a big uplifting greater christ Church in the economy. New
house is going up everywhere, more cranes, new commercial builds,
just a positive buzz about the place that's been going
on for some time, which is good, Mike. What I
don't understand is why our dollars crash. Well, it's in

(25:54):
really simple terms, this might be good, Christen says for exporters,
but terrible for the import is yes, that is true.
In really simple terms. You just weigh up everything New
Zealand does. Everything it is, you value it and that's
your currency. And you'll notice in the last couple of
days the American dollars fall in a bit because people
look at America on the gable hold on. It's not
as flash as we used to think it is. So
that's why a dollar falls. They look at us and

(26:16):
come to the same conclusion. And when you're running forty
three p you know we're in desperate trouble. Here's an
American homeland security guy. Why are American streets filled with
cars from Europe and Japan? But their streets are empty
of American cars, even as we provide defense and security
for both. So Stephen Miller's got it completely wrong. Of course,
the reason that most European streets are not full of
American cars is people simply don't want to buy American cars.

(26:38):
They're not particularly good cars. Yes they're tariffed in Europe,
but they're not particularly good cars. And if you can't
understand that, you can't understand anything. Mike, Why does everyone
keep saying the prices will increase with the tariff. No
one's talking about the same or a lot of tariffs
are taken up by the supplier.

Speaker 3 (26:57):
Are you serious.

Speaker 2 (26:59):
We've lived in the last couple of years in this
country with extraordinary inflation. The reason we had extraordinary inflation
was all the supplies passed on the cost of the consumer.
We've lived through it, We've been through it. That supplies
don't soak up anything. They're not a charity. They pass
it on to the person who can pay I e.

Speaker 3 (27:17):
You and me.

Speaker 2 (27:19):
And if we haven't, having lived through that, understood that,
then were all shot five minutes away from seven.

Speaker 1 (27:27):
Well, the ins and the ouse. It's the biz with
business favor take your business productivity to the next level.

Speaker 3 (27:34):
Now we're telling you about your Minecraft movie.

Speaker 2 (27:36):
Last week one star reviews, backing up the general sense
that games turned into movies don't really work at the theaters,
but proving the reviews mean little of anything. The kids,
of course, the kids have saved the day, and the
kids love Minecraft domestically as in the States, the only
weekend for a Minecraft movie was two hundred and seventy
seven million dollars.

Speaker 3 (27:53):
Is that good? Yes it is.

Speaker 2 (27:55):
It was predicted it would be somewhere between one oh
five and one seven five million, so two seventy sive
and smashes it. Massive boosts for the industry as well.
Earnings down thirteen percent in movie land, it's now down
just five percent year on year, because the movie came
out of the week and everyone went, wow, that's good.
First movie to overperform this year, if you can believe it,
no big blockbusters in Q one. It's also now the
record holder for the biggest domestic opening weekend for a

(28:17):
film based on a video game. The others were Super
Mario Brothers of course, to fifty seven million, five nights
at Freddy's one forty one million, Sonic The Hedgehog two
one twenty seven million. Industry is hoping this is the
first of a little bit of momentum.

Speaker 3 (28:29):
In Q two.

Speaker 2 (28:30):
What's happening in Q two, Well, we've got The Thunderbolts
out next month. We've also got the Final Mission Impossible movie.
I've seen every Mission Impossible movie and I've loved.

Speaker 3 (28:38):
Every one of them.

Speaker 2 (28:39):
I think they're genius. They're brilliant escapism at its best. Also,
the F one movie with Brad Pitt's coming out. I'm
not sure how big they've made a huge thing of
it in F one because it was filmed at F
one as the F one was going and you saw
Brad and the pit lane. But when you can watch
the real thing as we do so like most week,

(29:00):
I'm just not sure a movie about what we already
watch on a regular basis is necessarily going to be brilliant.
But I may well be completely and uughly wrong. Right
the market, we're back to this business of New Zealand's
the first market in the world opening posts the blood bath,
So we'll see how that goes for us today, Mark
Lister in in a couple of moments. Obviously the Prime
Minister on that, Chris Bishop, who I know has been
in Singapore last week, so I'm Donnie who ask him

(29:21):
about that. They've also changed the rules again on granni flat.
You could build a granny flat without consent. Now you
can build a really big grannie flat without conceit. So
we'll get the details on that for you after the news,
which is next to your reviews, Talk said beat.

Speaker 1 (29:38):
The only report you need to start your day, the
my casking breakfast with Bailey's real Estate, your local experts
across residential, commercial and rural news talks head been.

Speaker 2 (29:48):
Less, ship and past seven. Well they were numbers to
take your breath away, weren't they. The US market our
time Saturday fell to pieces losses you only see in
seismic events. The trouble with time zones, of course, is
their Saturday or our Saturday? Is there Friday, which means
that now we have to do something this morning and
watch and wait. Craig's Investment Partners director Mark Listeners with
US Mark Morning, Good morning, mate. So you've been around

(30:09):
a while. Put it into context. How sort of gobsmacked
were you?

Speaker 20 (30:14):
Well, it was pretty interesting to wake up on Saturday
and see that the market had fallen another six percent
on the Friday session in the US, because we obviously.

Speaker 18 (30:22):
Had that really rough Thursday.

Speaker 20 (30:24):
That was actually the biggest daily fall since the COVID period.
That came in the wake of the Liberation Day announcements,
and then on Friday, I think there was an expectation
you might see a more stable session, but then Beijing
responded with its own retaliatory tariffs, so then you saw
the S and P five hundred and fall another six percent.

(30:44):
So in those two days, down ten and a half percent.
I went back and looked through the last eighty odd
years of data. The only other times that's happened is
March twenty twenty. It happened once. Then once in two
thousand and eight, right in the middle of the GFC
and then in October nineteen eighty seven obviously Black Monday,
so it's pretty rare for things to fall as much

(31:06):
as that in a two day period.

Speaker 2 (31:07):
What would you expect today, given we, all things considered,
came out last week pretty well.

Speaker 1 (31:13):
We came out very well.

Speaker 20 (31:14):
The New Zealand market was down just half a percent
last week, the US down nine percent, Europe down eight
and a half percent, the UK down seven percent.

Speaker 1 (31:22):
That's for the week.

Speaker 20 (31:24):
We were just down half percent, So we held up
very well. We will play some catch up this morning
because that nervousness that hit the US market on Friday
will filter through to US, but I think we will
still hold up better. You know, we're not in the
firing line. We don't have those sort of tariffs impacting
us directly. We don't have all of those tech stocks,

(31:44):
which is really where the weakness is coming from. So
our safer, more steadier market I think will it'll fall,
but it might hold up a little bit better than
some of those international ones.

Speaker 3 (31:56):
You mentioned China.

Speaker 2 (31:57):
What did the EU come out tonight ish the week
and go where in two with retaliatory.

Speaker 20 (32:04):
Well, that's when things get worse, and that's when some
of this talk of a potential global recession or a
US recession, that's when you get that escalation. So right now,
I think things are quite finely balanced. If you see,
if you see negotiations happening behind the scenes, and there
was talk of negotiations. Apparently Vietnam, which was one of
the hardest hits by tariffs, Vietnam is in negotiations with

(32:27):
the US, and so you might see some positive news there.
But if you see other countries take the action that
China has, then it just becomes tip for tat escalation
and that's where things get uglier. So I think the
market for the next little while will be very very
sensitive to any comment or news flow about whether you're
getting more retaliatory action or whether you're seeing some of

(32:51):
these politicians come to these sensors and try and do deals.

Speaker 2 (32:54):
Appreciate your expertise as always, make list of Craig's investment
partners direct to ten Part.

Speaker 3 (32:58):
Seven high Gear.

Speaker 2 (33:00):
We'll have movement where we got movement on the granny
flat front. So you might remember the change was made
whereby you could build a small dwelling without consent that
was set at sixty square meters while public feedback is seen.
It moved now to seventy square meters, apparently Housing Minister
Chris Bishop, well, this very good morning. No science to it.
I take it, just a vibe. It could be sixty,
could be seventy, could be eighty two and a half.

Speaker 21 (33:20):
There could be fifty, could be ninety. We've had quite
a bit of feedback from the market and from people
who submitted that sixty was a bit small worth going
up to seventy just give you a bit more full
space and more of a lounge with a couple of bedrooms.
So we've done that and it's gone down pretty well.

Speaker 2 (33:36):
Okay, having said that, a lot of people have texted
already this morning, why not a dwelling plus a garage
or something similar.

Speaker 3 (33:42):
I built one.

Speaker 2 (33:42):
For example, I built a barn with one hundred square meters.
I cannot, for the life of me see the difference
between one hundred and sixty or fifty. It's a barn,
I built it. Well, it's fine.

Speaker 21 (33:53):
Yeah, Well then you're getting in literally to just building houses, right,
So they put the point of the granny flat thing
is to make it really simple for people just to
add a bit of it necessary dwelling out the back
the all two bedroom unit for older kids or for grandparents,
you know, for literally grannies or granddads, or you know
a bit of extra optionality at the back. So it's

(34:13):
designed to add to housing supply in a low cost
way by making sure that you get rid of the
resource consent and the building consent requirements to get things
underway quickly, make it easy once you start building instead
under in fifty square made of places you're looking at
you big infrastructure costs you're looking at basically building houses
and subdividing.

Speaker 2 (34:30):
Doesn't what's your assessment of the risk factor going forward.
So I turn up at a house to buy, I
see this thing out in the back. I got no
clue whether it's any good or not apart from Bruce
who's selling me the house is no mate. I built
it viewed what happens.

Speaker 21 (34:43):
Then it has to be built by licensed building practitioner
and you have to be able to prove that. You
have to have a certificate of fitness and all of
the stuff that goes alongside that. You don't need a
resource consent, but you still do need to tell the
council that you're doing the work before you do it,
and then once it's finished, and then it go on
to what's called a pin not rather than a limb,

(35:04):
so the council knows that you've got it, and that's
that way they can potentially charge you for infrastructure that
an infrastructure charge or development contribution or whatever happens as well.
So you don't need a building consent, you don't need
a resource consent. It makes it a lot simpler and
easier to do, but there are still some requirements. You
can't just go around willing nearly allowing people just to
chuck up random buildings at the back of their property.

(35:26):
You do need to have some oversight.

Speaker 2 (35:28):
You're in Singapore last week, a small island nation of
five million people. Did you get a sense of what
could be.

Speaker 21 (35:35):
Extraordinary?

Speaker 9 (35:35):
Place?

Speaker 21 (35:36):
Isn't it? It really is? And what I like about
them is the sense of ambition they've got as a country.
They don't want to be poor. In nineteen sixty they
were basically a country the size of Lake Taupo, and
they were basically shacks and hovels, and they decided that
they wanted to be wealthy and they went for it.
That is the place New Zealand could be if we
put our minds to.

Speaker 3 (35:56):
It good stuff.

Speaker 2 (35:56):
You should all buy as tickets actually to Singapore so
we can go and if you haven't been, go and
experience it, and you come back you'll be a changed person.

Speaker 3 (36:04):
Chris Bishop.

Speaker 2 (36:04):
The Housing minutes to thirteen minutes past seven postcar poll,
second one for the week Courier out over the weekend,
taken between the end of March beginning of April. National
thirty three and a half, Labour twenty nine point eight.
So that's psychological. The Greens eleven, this is another one
of these poles. I don't really believe, but I give
them to you anyway. The Greens eleven Act ten up
two point three. Really that amount of movement for what

(36:27):
no particular reason you Zealand first seven point four up
two point three. So in other words, there's been a
five point swing, most of which appears to have come
from the Labor Party. So Labor voters suddenly Upton left
for Act did they you see my point? To party
Murray down two point two anyway, The upshot of the
poll is the government retains power fourteen past the.

Speaker 1 (36:47):
Like Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered by
News talks.

Speaker 3 (36:52):
At b HI.

Speaker 2 (36:53):
Mike, You're analysis of the poll voter movement wasn't quite right.
More likely it's the five percent of dissolution national voters
have moved their vote to at New Zealand. The first well,
you're wrong, Nick, because National didn't move, Labor move, Labor
lost support and the other two gained. You can't gain
support from a party that didn't move.

Speaker 11 (37:10):
Or what if they did lose some and then got
it back off labor.

Speaker 2 (37:14):
And what also happened was the pole last time would
have been different because poles the time before were different
and all that happened last time. When you went a
drop is you got a gain, and where you got
a gain, you got to drop and round and round
It goes seventeen past seven, So interesting read on shopping habits.
Quevybank thinks spending on sites like Timu and Shine could
be stabilizing. But boy, that's made the impact there, hasn't it.

(37:35):
So when you look at imports of small cheap goods,
they're up by a third last year, more than double
in the past five years. First Retail Group Managing director
Chris Wilkinson's well this Chris, very good morning.

Speaker 1 (37:44):
To you good morning, Mike.

Speaker 2 (37:46):
So what you read, it's stabilized at what a high level.
It's here to stay. It is what it is.

Speaker 17 (37:51):
Yeah, absolutely, customers a consumers are getting accustomed to this
and it's becoming a pattern.

Speaker 2 (37:57):
Is it segment or sector specific or just you can
buy anything on it and a certain percentage of people do.

Speaker 1 (38:05):
Yeah.

Speaker 17 (38:05):
Team who's reach is particularly strong in small items, those
variety type items, the likes of the products the warehouse
are selling. But then we've got shine as well, which
is in terms of categories, that's your apparel category.

Speaker 3 (38:19):
Right.

Speaker 2 (38:20):
The whole argument they're doing this in Australia with their
election campaign at the moment, buying Australia and being patriotic
and stuff. Is that dead in the water. Initially you
can say it and everyone goes, oh, yes, I like
to support that, but in reality we buy cheap, We
love cheap, and that's the beginning, middle and end of it.

Speaker 17 (38:34):
Free mics through COVID we saw that strength of local support,
but that only lasted for so long. Price is really
a big driver for people.

Speaker 2 (38:42):
Do you know anything about the Deminimus thing? You know
in America they've had this great debate. Are we missing
out on tremendous amounts of tax in this country by
bringing in stuff we could buy here.

Speaker 17 (38:52):
Yeah, there is an argument for that. I mean, we
are charging GST on these products, so at least the
government is getting some bite at.

Speaker 2 (38:59):
Their Okay, what's you read on retail at the moment
we sing light at the end of the tunnel or not.

Speaker 17 (39:04):
Ah, here there are some glimmers. It's still very tough
that I think that. You know, we've got the government
spending again now and that's been a really important thing.

Speaker 2 (39:11):
Okay, good on you, Chris, appreciate time. Chris Wilkinson, first
Retail Group managing. By the way, speaking of the polls
in Australia, so two poles out this morning. The swing
to labor's real ever since they called an election. It's
almost like people dabble with poles and they'll say anything
they want and then when the election calls and it
actually counts, people go right focus. So Labor's searched. So

(39:34):
Labor looks if you believe the polls at the moment
and all the poles are the same, Labor will win
the election. So no minority Labor will win the election.
So much so that Dutton yesterday in a complete about turn.
One of his policies was people would be getting back
to the office. Public servants would have to come into
the office. That was a policy yesterday gone, don't have

(39:54):
to come to the office. Ebra again, that's macks of desperation.
It is seven twenty.

Speaker 1 (40:01):
The mic Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio. Call
it by NEWSTALKSV.

Speaker 2 (40:09):
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About Health O eight hundred triple nine three oh nine
online at about health dot co dot nz. Paskig now
seven twenty four Trety Principles bill on its way to
the gallows as the Select Committee came back Friday and
suggested it wasn't getting its support. It was voted past
first reading. Of course it won't get passed round two.
What I learned out of this was several things. One,
this country is not up for much of a debate

(41:33):
around complex and big ideas. We are myopic in our approach,
we hate or we love, and middle ground as irrelevant.
There was a venom and aggressiveness to a lot of
the submissions to what else did I learn from those
who submitted that actually knew what they were talking about
as opposed to people nearly offering an opinion. It very
quickly became clear there is massive, massive disagreement over interpretation. Now,

(41:56):
but these were the scholars, the lawyers, the historians, experts.
They couldn't now. That to me was the big, big clue.
If the learned can't agree, surely that means we need
something legally speaking to define what we're dealing with. There
is a major case in christ Church at the moment
between Night Tahoo and the Crown over water rights. It
is in the court because there is nothing definitive in
law as to what the treaty does and doesn't do.

(42:17):
We seem to accept that the Parliament is the ultimate court.
Yet on the treaty we appear happy to litigate for
decade after decade, have a tribunal that's wildly tainted and
nothing like a proper court. And each and every time
we dabble in this area, you and I are picking
up the tab. The other outworking, of course, is the
ongoing grief and ans. This is a very divided country
at the moment. This is not a harmonious nation with
an agreed legal stance around the treaty. But putting it

(42:40):
out to a vote the way Act wanted was a mistake.
It's too important for that. I mean, peck and mixed
democracy never works. The other thing I learned politically is
it should never have seen the light of day if
it wasn't going all the way. This goes to the
luxe and negotiation skills or lack of them. It was
either dead before it started or it got the full treatment.
What we got with is half baked, deeply divided mess
that ended up achieving basically nothing. Even those who argue

(43:03):
all but it started the debate, you're wrong because if
it's floated for another day, and it may well be,
we won't carry on where we left off. We'll have
to start all over again, asking Mike stayed in one
of the apartments in Singapore for a week. The apartment
was a house in the air, one hundred and eighty
squares dex al around, but no garaging, no way to
move with freedom. Like New Zealand, we love standalone homes

(43:24):
with a garage for our three cars. Our lifestyle is
too different to compare. Mal wrong wrong, wrong, wrong. You
will not find the person who is more spookish on
Singapore than I am. You're correct to say that a
lot of people live in apartments of one hundred percent correct.
You're also probably correct to suggest you can get a
regular house the way we would understand it, with a
garden and some palm trees. But you'll be paying many, many, many,

(43:45):
many many millions of dollars for it, because the reason
you pay so much for housing in Singapore is quite
simply it's a tiny place and there's five million people
in it. However, also, you are not going to be
able to afford a car because they're extraordinarily expensive. But
then again you don't need a car because taxis are
do it cheap and the public transport system is fantastic.
But what Singapore offers us all is a picture of

(44:08):
the future of what could be now. It doesn't have
to be specifically the same as Singapore, but Chris Bishop
nailed it, and anyone who ever goes to Singapore sees
the same thing. It's about spirit and it's about aspiration.
Read the history of the place where they were and
where they are now, and leek one, you said we're
poor we're third world. This has to end, and we're

(44:28):
going to save our way to prosperity.

Speaker 3 (44:30):
And everyone went.

Speaker 10 (44:31):
No, no, no, We're too poor.

Speaker 3 (44:33):
We can't afford to save no way.

Speaker 2 (44:36):
Thirty forty years later, they've don't what to do with
all the money. They're a magnet for the world.

Speaker 3 (44:39):
They are a.

Speaker 2 (44:40):
Classic example of being a hub of inventing themselves into
a hub of producing nothing and yet still having the
whole world come knock at their door and go, how
come you guys got to be so damned successful? They
are a great story to study news for you in
a couple of moments than.

Speaker 10 (44:57):
The Prime ministers in the studio, learning is a.

Speaker 1 (45:03):
Little New Zealand's voice of reason is Mike the Mic
asking Breakfast with a Vita, retirement, communities, Life your Way, News,
togs Head been.

Speaker 2 (45:16):
Twenty three minutes away, promote mother Morning of course of company,
Bobs after the band and travel and Jason Pine.

Speaker 3 (45:21):
Meantime, your Prime Minister is with us.

Speaker 10 (45:23):
Good to see you.

Speaker 2 (45:24):
But do you expect to see a global recession?

Speaker 19 (45:29):
I think the tariffs and trade wars are going to
cause huge pressure economically, no doubt about it.

Speaker 9 (45:34):
It'll lead to rising.

Speaker 19 (45:35):
Inflation, there'll be currency challenges, there'll be slow down and
economic growth. And that's why we just don't think it's
the right thing. You know, tariff's trade war is not
the way to go forward.

Speaker 9 (45:44):
Actually hurts lots.

Speaker 19 (45:45):
Of countries, all countries, I think ultimately, and so it's
a real challenge.

Speaker 2 (45:48):
Do you expect the EU to come back like China
has over the weekend?

Speaker 19 (45:51):
Yeah, I mean that the noises everyone wants to go
into full retaliatory mode and trade war mode, and I
just think that's going to be bad, bad outcomes for everybody.
You've obviously got a lot of cut countries now that
have had the retaliatory higher rates of tariff's coming back
to the government, you know, coming back to the Trump
administration to say otherwise. But I mean it's interesting, Mike,
having lived in the US, you know that private sector
will slow up big time. It'll stop on a dime.

(46:13):
And you've seen that even over the weekend. People don't
buy the new car because the new car is going
to be twenty five percent it's more expensive. Businesses don't
go off and invest plant and capital and growth and
actually start to sort of kick for touch rather than
play to win and the only loser and all of
that is going to be the US consumer. It's going
to be paying a lot more and as a result,
the US economy, when it's a quarter to a third
of the total global economy, that has flow on effects everywhere.

(46:36):
So you know, we are in quite good shape, you know,
relatively speaking. I think we're quite well positioned with the
product mix that we sell and the demand for our
products and services, and that's why we're out in the
world trying to drum up business and other places as well.

Speaker 3 (46:49):
Can you explain his logic?

Speaker 16 (46:51):
No?

Speaker 19 (46:51):
I mean, I just have been a person for a
long time just doesn't believe that tariff's work. I mean,
all that happens as you end up just piling on
costs to the consumer and you're in country. It's the
same reason why we won't retaliate with a ten percent
tariff the other way, because Franklin's just hurts New Zealand
workers big time.

Speaker 9 (47:08):
So it's not good. We disagree with the approach. It's
not a surprise.

Speaker 19 (47:12):
I mean, the President campaigned very strongly on this through
his election campaign. But rubbers hitting the road now because
it will cause disruption economically, But I'd just say to you,
I think relative to other countries, the kind of products
we are selling are in huge demand across the endo
Pacific region, and we have lots of places to sell
products term and that's why I've been pushing.

Speaker 2 (47:31):
Do you see a material shift? So red meat's probably
your best story. We sell now red meat to the
Americans more than we sell to anybody in the world.
Where does that red meat go? Does it go to
America plus or does it go to somewhere else?

Speaker 9 (47:43):
For Look, here's the deal.

Speaker 19 (47:45):
You're right, red meats the number one export that we've
got into the US. But when you talk to that sector,
they have done a very good job of tailoring their
products to American consumers. And you've got to remember in
the US it's three hundred and sixty million people. You've
got people that are recession proof, and if you find
the right seam of gold, that is wealthy consumers that actually,

(48:06):
you know, we haven't had a free trade agreement. We've
out dealt with tariffs in the US system for some time,
and our guys, through better targeting of their products and
finding those niches, are able to get in there. Zespri
for example, about to go launch full bore into the US.
Spoke to them on the day of the tariffs and
the night before. They still feel like this huge opportunity
and so our nimbleness and our relative competitiveness compared to

(48:28):
other countries I think means that people's experts still feel
they can do well. But having said that, we want
to double exports everywhere, that means trading and selling stuff everywhere.

Speaker 2 (48:37):
Okay, Truty, principles builders that go back to the house
this week.

Speaker 19 (48:40):
It will come out of the Yes, it's coming back
into the house this week.

Speaker 3 (48:45):
So as I did this week.

Speaker 19 (48:47):
Well, it'll be depending on the leader of the houses
to when it's scheduled. But you know, it's got to
come to an end. I think, you know, we've had
an aeration of the issues. There's been strong views on
all sides of that debate, and now we've got to
bring it too close.

Speaker 2 (48:58):
Indeed, does it go back to you in some way,
shape or form of your negotiating skills or lack of
either back it and let it see it's or kill
it one or the other, because what you've given this
country is this half baked shambles.

Speaker 19 (49:13):
Basically, Well, I mean, we didn't want to do it
at all. Act oneted to go to a full blow
and referendum. We found the compromise, yep, I get it
compromises what's necessary in an MP environment.

Speaker 3 (49:22):
Even if it achieves nothing of wasayte to everyone.

Speaker 19 (49:24):
Well, I mean, you know, from you know, the ACT
point of view, there was an aeration of views on
all sides, I guess.

Speaker 9 (49:31):
And you know now we're at a place where it's
going to come to any end.

Speaker 3 (49:34):
But no regrets on your part.

Speaker 19 (49:36):
No, I mean like the reality of an immature MMP
environment where you trying and bring three parties together that
have a lot of policies that are aligned, but also
have policies that are different and views that are different.
You have to compromise and find a way through. That's
what the needs and people demand us to do with
an MP system that they've given us to work with.
And so that does mean you've got compromise from time
to time. It does mean that you've actually got you know,

(49:57):
you go through like we have on Treuty Principles Bill,
you know, an eerration of the views. People have strong
views on all sides of it, but it is now
time to bring it to a close and focus on
what matters.

Speaker 2 (50:06):
Most, the Monawanui. The report came out Friday. As much
as you don't want to criticize people who I'm sure
went through very difficult times, does that in its microcosmic
way not some up some of the problems of this country.
People who weren't trained properly, shouldn't have been doing the
job in a ship that wasn't certified properly and sink well,
I think, you know, we want I mean, what part

(50:27):
of that's a good news story.

Speaker 9 (50:28):
None of that's a good news story. I mean, the
only good news.

Speaker 19 (50:30):
Story out of that is that seventy five people were
able to keep their lives. And I actually, given the
events of what actually happened at that moment, I thought,
you know, we were at very high risk of having
lost some people and that would have been absolutely just
a different level of tragedy. Again, this is cat yes,
and it's incredibly frustrating, and it's clearly this human era
that's been the primary reason for this incident. But look,

(50:52):
I mean, we have to invest in New Zealanders and
we have to improve our capacity and our professionalism and
our skills if we're going to act and create kids
that are going to be AI leaders and build your
four lane highway to f which you desperately need and want.
How the hell a they supposed to do it? If
half of them can't read by at the level they
need to be for out of five can't do maths

(51:14):
but sound they need to be.

Speaker 3 (51:15):
But that is New Zealand.

Speaker 2 (51:16):
Isn't it the ship that sinks manned by people who
weren't trained properly?

Speaker 15 (51:20):
Oh?

Speaker 19 (51:20):
I disagree, I mean I disagree. There are there are
New Zealanders. We are genuinely world class and we can
be world class. But isn't that is a reminder that
we need to continue to invest in our own skills
and to make sure that we are setting our kids
up and our grandkids up so they can compete with
the kids from Singapore. For what are a lot of
high paying jobs out there in the world that we
have to get home and bring back home here.

Speaker 2 (51:41):
So this morning you've released this Q two, Yes, of
what are you taking?

Speaker 9 (51:45):
Are these quarterly plans?

Speaker 3 (51:46):
Might reckon?

Speaker 2 (51:47):
Can I just bring to your attention number thirteen? Well,
to be fair to you, Q one, you've ticked off
everyone I think two or three whatever it is, So
you probably got there, do you run the risk you
see part legislation to remove barriers who the use of
overseas building products to increase competition, reduced costs. So that's
your board and all the various products, et cetera. So
you've made an announcement on that. You're now making another

(52:09):
announcement on that of something. You will see what I'm saying.
There's a lot of announcements going on here.

Speaker 19 (52:14):
Yeah, no, so let me explain. So just there's a
couple of things. First and foremost, for a bill to
become law, you've got to go through three readings of
this bill, right, So it's a process of you put
a bill into the Parliament and then goes into typically
a six month select committee process where the public and
stakeholder get to comment on it, then comes back for
a second reading, gets enhanced, then in third reading and
then it becomes law.

Speaker 9 (52:34):
So you've got to deal with that process.

Speaker 19 (52:36):
We can truncate some of that stuff and that's when
we use something called urgency. But equally, the reason I
do those quarterly plans is to focus the public service
and also the coalition government and ministers because I think
you know in.

Speaker 9 (52:48):
The past what you saw was actually a public service.

Speaker 19 (52:50):
That had no direction from ministers and from a government.
And as a result, now every public servant gets that,
all the CEOs get that. They know what they've got
to work towards, which is actually, now we've talked about
that product overseas products, we've understood the case for it,
we've made the case for it.

Speaker 9 (53:05):
The public go, yeah, that's good.

Speaker 19 (53:07):
And now we've actually got to make that more and
that's what meaning past the legislation means.

Speaker 2 (53:10):
Okay, so the guy who was running O rang A
Tomariki on Friday quit. I didn't realize he'd been away
sick since September. Is he genuinely sick? And if he
is genuinely sick, that's fine, we feel bad for him,
But why is he still running an organization that needs
a massive amount of overhaul.

Speaker 19 (53:26):
Yeah, I'm not going to go into that individual case,
but there is genuinely a very serious sickness and health
issue there and we wish him all the very best.
We've had acting sees and ce in place since he
has been on sick leave. But look, that is an
organization that has been underperforming for a long period of time.
There's been endless reviews and we now need to actually

(53:47):
deal with that because you clearly we're not getting good
results of good outcomes.

Speaker 3 (53:51):
There no Shane and Dot Jones. I'm assuming you're aware
of the story. Over the week, I called Shane, what
do we do about that? Because you're lucky you've got
people looking after you.

Speaker 9 (54:00):
Yeah, I think.

Speaker 19 (54:00):
Look, I mean it's really you know, it's interesting what
you go off overseas and honestly the MP's and the
prime ministers live in real bubbles because there is just
twenty four cars around you and when you move through
a city, it's just there's two ambulances. You know, it's
just Banana's right, And we in New Zealand want to
try and maintain this thing that I can walk through on.

Speaker 9 (54:19):
The airport and be accessible. I can go to do a.

Speaker 19 (54:21):
Leeper on Friday night with Amanda, and it's actually people
are going to be fine with me being out and
about being appropriate, approachable and accessible, but equally there are
serious risks and threats. Sadly, you know that there are
people who get very fixated or are very angry about
a particular issue or policy and therefore direct it at
you as a politician. Or Prime Minister. So you know,
we're trying to find that balance of getting making sure

(54:43):
that there's enough security and support for families in particulars.
It's tough as a promise when your wife and your
kids get.

Speaker 3 (54:49):
But Missus Jones does not deserve, No.

Speaker 9 (54:51):
She does not.

Speaker 19 (54:52):
So none of that is acceptable whatsoever. And I think
New Zealand needs, you know, we want to be in
a place where we can be accessible and approach with
politicians which is high unique compared to what happens around
the world, and actually still have security. It's interesting living
in the States. I remember talking to Obama about it,
you know, like most of those senators arrived by private
plans to come in to do their week in parliament

(55:13):
at the equivalent, you know, whereas we run into people
in the airports and we're talking to our colleagues on
the opposite sides, and so that you don't want to
lose that somehow. So we've got to find this balance,
and it's a I agree dual leaper any good outstanding.
As I said to you last year, best song of
the year, Chris Stapleton, do a leaper. Yep, you got
to listen to that song. Outstanding you appreciate Christopher Lux

(55:35):
from thirteen to eight.

Speaker 1 (55:38):
The Vike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio, now
ad by the News.

Speaker 2 (55:42):
Talks that be Mike access to politicians meet David Seymour
yesterday at a street meeting. Can't complain about that. And
that's and that's the line we walk in this country,
isn't it. You will see politicians walking down the street
or at the airport. But what happened to Jones and
his wife over the weekend was absurd. Mike, imagine Labor
negotiating with TPM and the Greens who will align and
push through their nutty extreme policies to a Labor party

(56:05):
whip desperate for power at any cost. It's we were
talking about that. The Prime Minister and I are a
moment ago of how Labor deal with that issue. I
think that could be a defining issue of the election campaign.
How Labor explains themselves to the wider populace that the
danger and extremism of the Greens and the Mari Party

(56:26):
now both of them, and how they coalesce around any
of that is I mean, I wish Chris Sapkin's the
best of luck with that. Mike, totally disappointed at you today.
If there's one thing you can do as a journalist, Firstly,
I'm not a journalist. I've never been a journalist. I've
said a million times. I'm not a journalist. Defending the
constitutional arrangements of New Zealand. You should be advocating for
the principal spell. Well, two things about that, and this
is the problem with Zealots like you.

Speaker 3 (56:47):
One.

Speaker 2 (56:47):
I have advocated for it too. I mentioned it literally
before seven thirty this morning, so not more than twenty
minutes ago. And on balance I favor something more than
we have. I wouldn't put it and as I said
before on the program, I wouldn't put it to a vote.
But it can be to a broader vote. If you're
so enamored with it and think it's so important, then
we will see, presumably the Act Party vote increase as

(57:10):
the election gets closer and closer. Now theory versus reality,
the urban myth dispelled in just a moment eight to eight.

Speaker 1 (57:19):
The Mike Hosking Breakfast with Vida Retirement Communities News Togstead vs.

Speaker 2 (57:24):
One five to eight. So here we go. If I
said to you flying in this country, you go disaster
on time, no way, how many cancelations. How many people
do you know that jump on a plane that never
get there? How many people jump on a plane it's
always late, well wrong. So the Ministry of Transport numbers
come out, they do these monthly. It's the on time
performance OTP in New Zealand's cancelation rate zero zero point

(57:47):
eight percent this January, middle of the holidays, Jetstar zero
point two. They've got fewer flights obviously, so they don't
need to cancel as many. Dunedin to Auckland the highest
cancelation rate. Dunedin to Auckland one point eight percent of
flights canceled one hundred and twelve in total, just two
were canceled. Wellington Auckland four hundred and eighty one flights
five were canceled, that's one percent. Christ Church to Auckland,

(58:08):
Auckland to christ Church Auckland and Wellington four flights canceled
over the whole months in total. So when you add
it all up for January, both airlines in New Zealand
and Jetstar there were three thousand, six hundred and eleven
flights scheduled in January. Between those two airlines, twenty three
were canceled or zero point six percent. So the theory

(58:30):
is flying in this country as a problem. The theory
is you're always late. The theory is it's always a
problem wrong. Zero point six percent. That metric for any
business doing anything. In other words, ninety nine point four
percent of what you do happens when it's supposed to happen.
You would take all day long, do not text me

(58:52):
and say you don't believe the numbers, or you were
on a flight going to Palmerston North and it went
upside down and round and round it ended up in
Vericago because the facts don't lie, right, Sports, So guess
where we are on the letter worries. Guess where we are.
We're fourth, We're on the top four. That's home playoff territory.
They're coming, They're coming to Go Media Mount Smart Stadium,

(59:14):
Go Media Mount Smart, Victor Sparks Stadium, whatever it's called
for a home flight. Anyway, this season might change between
now and then, but we'll take the good news for now,
well at last.

Speaker 3 (59:22):
Anyway, more sports shortly for.

Speaker 1 (59:23):
You, Mike Hasky, We've been faithful. We're engaging and title
the my casking breakfast with the range rover vi La
designed to intrigue and use togs dead beas sprung.

Speaker 3 (59:39):
It is no wrong, no.

Speaker 22 (59:43):
Ten or a half tied.

Speaker 4 (59:44):
The chief chiefs got this guilt set up another level for.

Speaker 1 (59:49):
The first time.

Speaker 21 (59:51):
The Crusaders beats the drawer in Fiji Fidal sure fifty
one points to forty.

Speaker 16 (01:00:00):
Over the couch and the Blue hang on by one
and one two and lost five.

Speaker 2 (01:00:05):
Have the Highlanders in twenty twenty five and it's another
excruciating loss.

Speaker 20 (01:00:12):
And that is up there and that is out and
he's done it. Back to bag five wicked bags for fences.

Speaker 1 (01:00:20):
That's the game.

Speaker 16 (01:00:21):
New Zealand went by forty three.

Speaker 1 (01:00:24):
The Monday Morning commentary barks on the Mike Husking breakfast
with Spears Finance, supporting Kiwi businesses with finance solutions for
over fifty years.

Speaker 2 (01:00:33):
It is seven past eight. Jason pin Andrews several both
with us lads. Good morning morning, and you what, Jason,
another grouping drawer in the football, wasn't it.

Speaker 4 (01:00:43):
I knew you'd love that bike, I knew you'd love that.
Another drawer for Auckland f C. I thought of you
actually when the final whistle blew and I had to
give the news of another drawer a couple of stumbles
for Auckland FC. That I mean, there's still eleven games unbeaten.
You know, let's not taking it.

Speaker 3 (01:01:03):
Like draws a wink.

Speaker 4 (01:01:04):
That's how Steve Coriker sees it, and he says, look,
we're still eleven unbeaten, only five points clear our four
games to go, four tough games.

Speaker 2 (01:01:11):
Well, look, I just saw the end of it and
I thought, come on, this is you can't keep playing
like this for you know, I mean if they win
at the end of the day, if they win in
their in their debut season and they win the lot, yeah,
I mean you can't take it away from the Kenya.
That's Hellberg all day long.

Speaker 4 (01:01:28):
Yeah. I think, well, it's a remarkable achievement and they
still might do that. They still might do that. They've
got you know, look, win the regular season, which I
think they'll do, into knockout games. Look, there's there's there's
still I think a bit to be optimistic about. Yeah,
the draws are interesting. We'll see if we can organize
a seven or eight.

Speaker 3 (01:01:45):
Yeah, golfest let's.

Speaker 16 (01:01:47):
Would have noticed. The mica is that most of the
York Nets games draw wind draw lost are exciting.

Speaker 3 (01:01:52):
Yes, that's good football.

Speaker 16 (01:01:54):
They've injected some excitement back into the football here, which.

Speaker 3 (01:01:57):
No question, it's been great.

Speaker 16 (01:01:59):
What do you know? Do you know just before you
get onto Liam Lawson obviously what happened to the rat?

Speaker 2 (01:02:06):
Well, so for people who don't so on my wife's
social media and I don't follow any of.

Speaker 10 (01:02:12):
This or but it was a big thing.

Speaker 16 (01:02:16):
Have a social media assistant.

Speaker 2 (01:02:17):
It went viral anyway. It was the distance between where
the rat was. It's not a race, and I think
it's still a mouse. It's a tiny laugh thing.

Speaker 3 (01:02:25):
Okay.

Speaker 2 (01:02:25):
So anyway, the distance between where allegedly was and where
the spades were was a long walk, being a country property.
So I trudged over and grabbed a spade and by
the time I got the spade back, the thing was gone,
and Scott was on the phone. And Scott's our pest
control guy, and I think he was coming anyway, but
he might be coming, specially today, and if he is,
he charges hundreds of dollars at a time.

Speaker 3 (01:02:45):
And what I couldn't explain.

Speaker 2 (01:02:46):
To Katie was you realize here on acreage in the
country there are rats and mice and possums galore. They're everywhere,
you just can't see them. The fact you found one
infintestimally small example of one does not mean there are
no others. But that didn't seem to sink into her,
so she became fixated.

Speaker 16 (01:03:05):
Was on his way out anyway, He was on his
way out the thing that.

Speaker 10 (01:03:07):
Even the poison was gonna die. So what you were doing,
You run.

Speaker 16 (01:03:11):
And get the spade and whack it.

Speaker 2 (01:03:14):
Why didn't I Because by the time I came back
with the spade, it had gone. It had scurried under
a bush. I went, look, it's gone under a bush
to die. And she goes whacked the bush the bush.

Speaker 16 (01:03:23):
I saw you with the spade walking up a gentle incline,
and it looked like something off Last of the Summer Wine.
You were out of breath.

Speaker 2 (01:03:34):
I was wearing crocs, and crocs on slopes make for
interesting walking conditions. That's all I can say. It's just
like you know anyway. Anyway, So Liam, here of the problems,
So so work me through the center. So here's the problem.
One head she beats Lawson. Not a good sign. Two
Lawson goes backwards in the Grand Prix. Not a good sign.
Three Sonoda doesn't score any points. So the car it's

(01:03:56):
the problem, not the driver. Not another not good sign.

Speaker 16 (01:04:01):
There were a few things thrown together, right. They decided
to leave Liam Lawson out long on his tires didn't work,
There was no there were no yellow flags or safety cars,
and there wasn't the rain that was fore cars. So
it all has added together and the pit strategy clearly
in hindsight was wrong correct for Liam Lawson. So that

(01:04:23):
sort of stuff doesn't help. But it all just seems
to be adding up, doesn't it.

Speaker 2 (01:04:27):
Yeah, And so Helmet Marco said overnight, he goes, he's fine,
but we'll need to see points this coming weekend and
the weekend and after and that's like, that's pressure. And
so that's the big thing here, Jason is is you
either match or beat Hadga your teammate, or you don't.
And when you don't, we've got issues.

Speaker 6 (01:04:48):
Yeah.

Speaker 4 (01:04:48):
Oh look absolutely, that's the that's the key thing in
this in this game is to beat your teammate first
and foremost. I mean, he's never going to beat the
staff and in the top car he's down now in
the racing bulls car had just a good driver. You know,
I've been really priest with what he's been doing. Liam's
got to find a way of fulfilling the potential we
all know that he has. Look, you're right, Pitt's strategy
was wrong, but we were told he knows this track well.

(01:05:12):
And look, it's a very difficult track to overtake on,
especially when nobody crashes out, so hard to make up positions.
I think Sonoda got Driver of the day, didn't he
for making up two positions? So Bahrain next, which, as
I understand it, as a track where overtaking is a lot,
you know, a lot more possible, Yes, a lot more
places you can do that. They've got to get a

(01:05:33):
wriggle on. But so the red ball to be honest, Mike,
because you know maximstappened genius, unbelievable driver. That qualifying lap
the other night was just something out of out a space.
But Sonoda's not going to pick up points regularly. They
just ain't going to win the Driver's Championship. Mclarena almost
too far ahead already.

Speaker 3 (01:05:51):
Yeah, exactly. Brief break more in a moment thirteen past.

Speaker 1 (01:05:54):
The Mike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio News Talks.

Speaker 2 (01:06:01):
News Talking at Me sixteen past eight the.

Speaker 1 (01:06:03):
Monday Morning Commentary Box on the Mic Hosking Breakfast with
Spears Finance, supporting Kiwi businesses with finance solutions for over
fifty years.

Speaker 2 (01:06:12):
Got a new bet, Andrew with the Prime Minister this morning.

Speaker 3 (01:06:14):
You want to hear it?

Speaker 1 (01:06:17):
What was that?

Speaker 21 (01:06:17):
Sorry?

Speaker 3 (01:06:18):
Got a new bet with the Prime Minister this morning.
You're ready?

Speaker 16 (01:06:20):
What's the new bet?

Speaker 3 (01:06:20):
The bet is Crusade.

Speaker 2 (01:06:21):
Last year it was Crusaders Highlanders, so Sam supports the
Highlanders and PM supports the Crusaders. He said, if we lose,
I will wear a CRUs Highlanders jersey. So we bought
him a small jersey and it was super tight. This
year he's gone for you're ready for this? He says,
if the Highlanders win, I will paint my face blue

(01:06:43):
and yellow. So we're hiring a face painter to paint
the Prime Minister's face blue and yellow of the Highlanders win.

Speaker 16 (01:06:52):
And when would he wear the face paint like Nie
with me? Oh just on here and need take it off? Well,
you wouldn't wear it all day?

Speaker 3 (01:07:00):
Point? Did we go down?

Speaker 6 (01:07:01):
No?

Speaker 3 (01:07:01):
We didn't say.

Speaker 2 (01:07:02):
See you didn't think about that, so good point. Andrew
probably should viral wouldn't it. That would go viral, That'll
be fantastic.

Speaker 16 (01:07:08):
But the way that look made, the way the Heiland, it's.

Speaker 2 (01:07:14):
A problem, isn't it. There's no one's going to be
What was the rugby you liked Andre of the weekend?
Most Blues Hurricanes love Molana.

Speaker 16 (01:07:21):
Loved Molana again. I thought, gee, that's the first half.
They missed lineouts, they missed kicks for touch. I thought, God,
this is going to end horribly. And then they came
out on that second half and blew the Warrtors off
the field. Fantastic entertaining rugby once again from Morana. I
thought the Blues Hurricanes game was gripping on Saturday night.
What what did catch my eye or didn't Mikeau? Is

(01:07:44):
that the lack of crowds?

Speaker 3 (01:07:45):
Yes, again, you can't hide the.

Speaker 16 (01:07:47):
Week My understanding is TV ratings are okay, but the
Blues Hurricanes used to be a premier game of the
season and there was hardly anyone at.

Speaker 10 (01:07:54):
Them park Friday, Saturday night, I can't remember it was
Saturday night.

Speaker 2 (01:08:00):
Was no excuse for the rain because it rained Friday,
but Saturday it was beautiful Saturday.

Speaker 3 (01:08:04):
There's fabulous.

Speaker 4 (01:08:05):
There were eighteen and a half thousand at at Go Media.
For Auckland FC, there would have been eight thousand and
even parts yes, yeah, used to be this, you know,
Hurricanes Blues. I mean if it had been the Blues
against the Force, they would have got lucky to get
five thousand. I think Polyfist was on over the weekend
that took a lot of people away, but they turned
up at Albany. I'll tell you what when the Blues

(01:08:27):
played Mowana Pacifica this coming Saturday, four thirty five even parts,
Oh we more Mawana Pacifica. Yeah there than Blues fans
you could well be.

Speaker 2 (01:08:35):
Yeah, good point, what chance? What do you reckon? This
goes back to the Ta b bet they were running
where Liam beatsno to twenty dollars get eighty dollars back.
So what are the odds Jason of Mowana Pacifica tipping
up the Blues.

Speaker 4 (01:08:49):
I think they're pretty good. I think the Blues will
take confidence from there. Went over the Hurricanes. I don't
think it was vintage Blues, but they've had a fairly
mediocre season. Look I would I mean at the start
of this and you would have said, well, you know,
absolutely no chance. But Mowana back to back wins Crusaders Warriors,
as like Sav said, took them till the second half
to get going. I think there are a chance. I

(01:09:09):
absolutely think there are a chance.

Speaker 16 (01:09:11):
That's about the Blues if they if they put a
full performance together like they didn't Crusaders a couple of
weeks ago. Mowana definitely a chance.

Speaker 2 (01:09:18):
How good is body, though, Sav? I mean, what a genius.

Speaker 16 (01:09:22):
Yeah, he can't. He's come back from that broken hand.
I thought he played really really well the other night
and when they needed his calm head goal kicking wise,
he kicked missed one near the end, but they were
ahead anyway, exactly. The one he landed was a long
range kick and that was enough to win the game.
So I thought he was I thought he's very good. Hey,
what about the worries. Two points for the buyer.

Speaker 10 (01:09:42):
They're up to fourth on the table top four.

Speaker 16 (01:09:45):
Staggering.

Speaker 2 (01:09:46):
It's incredible. No, it's not staggering. It's just it's just
the coming of age.

Speaker 16 (01:09:52):
He get two points for not playing well.

Speaker 3 (01:09:54):
Everyone gets the two points for the buyer.

Speaker 2 (01:09:57):
Want to buy come so everyone will get it. So
we we've got I current remember We've got the Broncos
coming the nineteenth. That's sold out.

Speaker 16 (01:10:03):
I tell you what the true test this weekend is. Oh,
next weekend is the storm in the Broncos.

Speaker 2 (01:10:08):
Right, Yes, that's correct, the storm. I don't fear the
way you might once might have feared the storm. Broncos
are sold out. That'll be good. The ends up game
is the Knights that's in christ that's already sold out.
So you know, you talk about the crowds. You can
get a good crowd at the football Jason, and you
get a good crowd at the Warriors. The rugby people
have got to be looking at that and going, what
is it that we.

Speaker 3 (01:10:29):
Can't do the same thing?

Speaker 2 (01:10:31):
Yep, you're following the Have you seen the torpedo bat?
You guys, by the way in the baseball do you
know about the torpedo bat?

Speaker 16 (01:10:38):
Yeah, I don't know why they didn't do it earlier.

Speaker 3 (01:10:40):
I couldn't.

Speaker 2 (01:10:41):
I can't, for the life of me work out. So
the torpedo bat, for people who haven't followed it, they've
simply for the individual player moved the meat or the
weight of the bat to where in general that player
hits the ball. Now, do you know one and the
one hundred years of baseball hasn't sat down and thought,
why don't we put it individually where that player can

(01:11:02):
best hit the ball and then give them an individualized
bat and things might change.

Speaker 3 (01:11:07):
And the Yankees are doing it and the Yankees can't lose.

Speaker 4 (01:11:11):
I think it's good. I mean, I think pictures have
dominated baseball for quite a while. I think crowds turn
up to see big hits, don't they do.

Speaker 16 (01:11:18):
It's like in the cricket people want to see sixers.
When you go to a baseball game, you want to
see home runs. So it's a good move. What are
you doing on the property today? You're going to be
walking around with your shotgun?

Speaker 2 (01:11:27):
It's funny you should say that.

Speaker 16 (01:11:28):
I don't like you look like bloody Alma Fad walking around.

Speaker 12 (01:11:36):
Do you know?

Speaker 3 (01:11:36):
Can you?

Speaker 2 (01:11:37):
Are you allowed to shoot magpies? You're not allowed to shoot.

Speaker 16 (01:11:42):
Them because you should be allowed to.

Speaker 2 (01:11:45):
Yeah, I think so, that's my argument. But I didn't
want to cross the line with authority because I thought,
if I can't shoot because I've got two on my property,
the plovers are gone.

Speaker 3 (01:11:53):
So that's good.

Speaker 2 (01:11:55):
But they've got two magpies that have been there for
a while, and there are pain and they're not likable
birds like all the birds. I got kingfish er, I
got heroin, I got you know, ducks. I've got beautiful birds.
But the magpies are a pain. And if I could
shoot them, I would. I just take them out bing
and would be good. We'd have a you know, proper boot.

Speaker 16 (01:12:11):
I don't know half. I'd want to see you with
a gun. I reckon you'd have really weak wrists much
of a caliber. Yes, stick with the spade.

Speaker 4 (01:12:19):
I think the spade the magpie.

Speaker 3 (01:12:22):
Nice to see you, guys, Jason Pine and Andrew Seville.
It's Take twenty two.

Speaker 1 (01:12:26):
The Mike Hosking breakfast with the range Rover VI La
News Togs.

Speaker 2 (01:12:30):
There'd be oh jeez, you're big on the magpies eight
twenty five. By the way, I bet you can't shoot
to make pie. They're trickier than you think. Yeah, there's
two things. Are you allowed to shoot to make pie?
The answers, yes, could I They're skittish at the beast
of time, so you might have a point. I'd also
need a gun, so I don't have one of those.
So I'm sort of I'm short on the weaponry. At

(01:12:50):
the month hire a gun, I believe not.

Speaker 3 (01:12:53):
No, I don't think so.

Speaker 22 (01:12:55):
May have watched too many John Wickmery.

Speaker 2 (01:12:56):
You know, I don't think you can hire them. But
we've got magpies, the beautiful birds, and all have their
own little territory as a couple.

Speaker 22 (01:13:04):
Goodness sake, that's what's wrong with this coach.

Speaker 2 (01:13:08):
It's exactly what's wrong with this country, Mike. Magpies are
super smart. You can even teach them to talk.

Speaker 3 (01:13:14):
What what for? What did you do today? Well? See
those I suppose.

Speaker 22 (01:13:19):
Then you could politely ask them to me.

Speaker 3 (01:13:21):
Can you nef off? Mike?

Speaker 2 (01:13:23):
Get a cockatoo. They'll fight the magpies. I've never seen
a cockatoo fighter make trouble.

Speaker 11 (01:13:30):
Then you're you're running into an old lady who swallowed
a spider who sat down beside her. Yeah no, no, no,
no no, that wriggled and jiggled and tiggled inside.

Speaker 22 (01:13:39):
That's right.

Speaker 11 (01:13:40):
And then you have to fight in something to fight
the cockatoo.

Speaker 22 (01:13:43):
Then you've got to find it's a.

Speaker 2 (01:13:45):
Circle, isn't it. It's like it's a circle. That's the
problem I introduced. Pissed Mike, knock yourself out, well, that's
probably the problem. I probably would, And so then Katie
would go.

Speaker 22 (01:13:54):
I'm surprised you did knock yourself out with the spade sounds.

Speaker 3 (01:13:57):
And she'll be going, I'm not again, get.

Speaker 22 (01:14:00):
I'm actually surprised you knew where the spades were.

Speaker 3 (01:14:02):
Yeah, that's true.

Speaker 2 (01:14:03):
Well, I wasn't one hundred percent sure, to be fair,
but I figured they could be in the shed, and
I opened up the shep and I went, oh, look
at all this stuff, and there happened to be some
spades in there. So anyway, news for you in a
couple of moments are two polls out as the election
campaign rumbles on, and a big change of policy big
backflip from Peter Dutton. Steve Price is good moments away.

Speaker 1 (01:14:20):
He would use talk, seed, news, opinion, and everything in between.
The Mike Hosking break best with Bailey's Real Estate, your
local experts across residential, commercial and rural news talks head belly.

Speaker 2 (01:14:34):
Mike commits the country's current overwhelming entertainment off your rural
living hijinks and the fact that we all patently cannot
wait to hear the next installment of a famous English
media personalities Farming stories may twenty three. By the way,
for season four, with your much talked about enthusiasm for
New Zealand farming, have we just stumbled across the next
big thing Hoskings Farm. The difference between Jeremy and I

(01:14:56):
is Jeremy's entertaining an eye on the land and just
a tragedy, so it would be more fast than anything else.

Speaker 22 (01:15:01):
More a freak show or a freak show.

Speaker 3 (01:15:03):
Twenty three minutes away from.

Speaker 1 (01:15:04):
Nine International Correspondence on News Talks'.

Speaker 3 (01:15:09):
Trans the Tasman See passes with us morning mate.

Speaker 2 (01:15:11):
Hey there, but all these two poles there seems to
be and I think this must add to the other
poles that there seems to be a theme elbow called
the vote. People sobered up, went right? Who am I
actually supporting? The move was on to labor And he's
traveling nicely?

Speaker 3 (01:15:27):
Is that fair?

Speaker 18 (01:15:28):
Well?

Speaker 16 (01:15:29):
Yes?

Speaker 18 (01:15:30):
Or is Peter Dutton traveling poorly? Would be the other
way to look at it. I mean people are still
not yet fully engaged. I mean we kid ourselves. People
read the Australian and Newspoll like you and I do,
or Red Bridge in the other newsmited tablet papers, but
they're not really that engaged and this is a particularly
interesting election. Just quickly to the News poll result, it

(01:15:51):
now has Labor ahead fifty two forty eight two party preferred.
The coalition's primary vote is back where it was when
it lost the election in twenty twenty two, giving Labor
a one seat majority, So it means nothing's really changed.
So if you had the elections weekend, Labor would probably
get back in, maybe even with a majority. But the

(01:16:13):
interesting thing about this election is there's four weeks to go,
but there's only two clear weeks. You've got Easter followed
by Anzac Day. Now our Anzac Day obviously is on
the twenty fifth of April, so you've got good Friday,
and then you head into the week that had Easter Monday,
with Anzac Day at the bottom end of that. School

(01:16:33):
holidays are on, most people are taking and you'll leave
to turn that into a week off. So no one's
talking about politics for two of the last four weeks.
So Peter Dunton really has one real chance this week
and the last week of the campaign to turn people's
views around.

Speaker 2 (01:16:49):
I'm just not convinced that him flip flopping on working
from home give scenes a level of reassurance he knows
what he's doing though does.

Speaker 18 (01:16:56):
It No, it doesn't as it gives a sense of weakness.
I mean, this is the scheme that the coalition announced
a few weeks back where and it was supposed to
be aimed purely and squarely at Cambra public servants. Now
the Albanezi governments employed an extra thirty six thousand public
servants since they've been in the office. And what Peter
Dutton was saying, if you're a camera public servant, if

(01:17:18):
I win the election, you will need to go back
to the office and not work from home. And he
said further than that that he was going to cut
the size of the public service. What the Labor Party
have cleverly been doing is saying, oh, Peter Dutton's coming
for any working wife, who housewife, who works from home,
and women were the ones that were seen to be
the targets that you know, they've got a couple of

(01:17:39):
young children, they've got a job that's able to be
done from home and they're very happy doing that post COVID. Well,
Peter Dutton never intended it to be that target. So
what he did yesterday and he'll reiterate that today is
he's going to scrap the scheme. He's going to say, oh,
well you know we got that wrong move on, nothing
to see here, see you later. It just shows up

(01:18:00):
bit of backfooting and a bit of weakness. Weakness, I believe,
and I think the policy in its original form, just
Mike wasn't properly explained and he should have stuck with it.

Speaker 2 (01:18:09):
Yep, did right that. I was watching the footage over
the weekend. So he's kicking a ball around. God, it
must be boring being a politician. So I'm watching the park.
He's just going back and forward with his kid, back
and forth, back and forth. Anyway, kicks it and hits
the cameraman on the head and suddenly there's blood galore.
And was that widely publicized? And who won that? Did
we feel sorry for the cameraman? Was that just life?

Speaker 1 (01:18:31):
Well?

Speaker 22 (01:18:31):
Everywhere?

Speaker 18 (01:18:32):
It was publicized everywhere. I mean the problem for Peter
Dutton is he's a Queensland and he's trying to play
a straighten his football. He had no clue how to
kick it or what to do with it. I mean,
if you were a media advisor these people you'd say,
don't hold babies don't hold footballs, don't kick things, don't
try and be a netballer. Just do your buddy job
and leave that to everyone else.

Speaker 3 (01:18:52):
Yeah, exactly.

Speaker 2 (01:18:54):
Of course, Morrison famously tackled the kid by the way,
this thing that elbows on about batteries and solar power power,
you got a whole different scenario in Australia than we
do in New Zealand because you've got sunshine, more sunshine
than I get.

Speaker 1 (01:19:05):
All of that.

Speaker 2 (01:19:06):
But a battery is a bloody expensive thing to contemplate.
How do you sell that to a wider public?

Speaker 18 (01:19:12):
Interesting you say that because when you look at this
policy with more details. So Anthony Albnezi comes out of
the weekend it says, everybody who's got solar system on
their roof, if we win the election come July, I'll
give you four thousand dollars toward the cost of a
battery to strap to the side of your house. Everyone goes, well,
that's a good idea, Thank fabulous. I might be up

(01:19:33):
for that. When you look at the detail, as columnists
have started to do today, the average cost of a
solar battery in Australia on a property, your private property
is about nine and a half thousand dollars, So you've
got four, you've got to then come up with another five.
And someone's calculated today that if you put solar panels

(01:19:54):
and a battery on from the start today, you're probably
going to take you something like no years to pay
that off to get any wholesale benefit out of what
you've done anyway, And look, I just think this will
flow through to some people. But as my great friend
Andrew Bolt said in the column this morning, he said,

(01:20:15):
it's basically the giving the rich the ability to have
batteries and solar on the house, and the working poor
have no possibility of ever doing it exactly.

Speaker 2 (01:20:26):
And the other thing is that you'll be similar But
in New Zealand, the average length of a home ownership
for seven years. So you put your battery and your
solar on and then you sell your house and you've
gained literally nothing.

Speaker 18 (01:20:36):
Yeah, he's not packing it up and putting it in
the removal truck.

Speaker 1 (01:20:38):
Aren't you.

Speaker 15 (01:20:39):
No?

Speaker 3 (01:20:39):
Exactly that.

Speaker 2 (01:20:41):
Land bridge thing, by the way, just quickly in port
of Darwins that got the is it a Chinese thing
that they've stripped them of their lease? Is that an
anti China move?

Speaker 3 (01:20:53):
That we've seen.

Speaker 18 (01:20:54):
Well, it's one hundred year lease that should never have
been written. It was written by the state government at
the time. It was a labor Northern Tritory commissioned government
and Dunton came out on Friday and said that he
would tear it up if he were elected. Anthony Albanize
he stumbled in and said he did the same thing.
It matters to Australians, we don't and it matters to
our American allies. By the way, no one's ever been

(01:21:16):
comfortable with the fact that China has control over the
port nearest to China on the north coast of Australia.

Speaker 2 (01:21:24):
The markets when they opened this morning, how braced are you?

Speaker 18 (01:21:29):
They'll collapse? I like what the Wall Street did?

Speaker 1 (01:21:31):
You know?

Speaker 18 (01:21:32):
Everyone with superannuations just holding their breath and saying to
their financial advisors, don't bring me for the next eight years.
I want to know, because it'll be a bloodbath.

Speaker 2 (01:21:43):
Will demand exactly all right? Might go, well, catch up
on Wednesday, appreciate very much. The A six was down
just one hundred and seventy seven, about two and a
half two and a half percent on Friday.

Speaker 3 (01:21:52):
They did worse than we did.

Speaker 2 (01:21:55):
But they're going to be whacked the same way. We're
going to be whacked this morning as well. Sixteen away
from nine the.

Speaker 1 (01:22:01):
Like Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered by
News Talks at B.

Speaker 2 (01:22:08):
There's a I didn't realize, but we to a degree
our timber industry. This is Trump tariffs, etc. Our timber
industry seems to have been carved out in something that
doesn't have a carve out. We have a carve out,
I found out over the weekend. So the problem is
they do these investigations. They've done a number of them.

(01:22:28):
It's under the Trade Expansion Act of nineteen sixty two.
And they've also investigated copper, which, by the way, if
we haven't followed copper lately, it's gone through the roof
in terms of price. Similar investigation into steel and aluminum. Anyway,
the construction companies and the various associations in America lobby
the government and said, don't do this because we are

(01:22:49):
desperately short of timber and America and we need to
import as much as we possibly can. We sell timber
to the Americans, and so at this particular point, until
their current market study into timber comes back, we are
or our industry is exempt encouraging lee from tariff. So
at least that's good. And I was very very pleased
to hear the Prime Ministry on the program if you

(01:23:10):
missed it about an hour ago. He's sort of coincided
with what I've been trying to say on the program.
And I hope he's right, because if he's right, that
means I'm right, and if we're both right, it means
that we're going to be okay with this. The certain
things if you look at America that we sell them,
beef being one of them, wine being another. Is My
argument has always been that the tariffs are for the
bottom dwellers there for the bulk quality products, whereas if

(01:23:32):
you're at the top end of the market, and he
was making this point, if you're on the upper east
side of Manhattan, and if you're living on Madison Avenue,
whether you're you know, grass fed, I fill it is
sixty two dollars us aquilo or sixty seven dollars us achuilo,
matter is not to you because you've got plenty of dough,
and the same applies to our wine. So in other words,

(01:23:53):
you can pass that cost of the tariff on without
fear of losing your market share. And that's always been
the story of quality over quantity. But one of my
favorite people in the world of the market's a guy
called Jim Kramer, and he works with the CNBC, and
he's a very sharp guy who's been around for many,
many years now. He is what he describes as a
fair trader, not a free trader, and he is typical

(01:24:17):
of the voices you heard over the weekend as to
why this has gone so wrong.

Speaker 3 (01:24:20):
Over and over again.

Speaker 23 (01:24:21):
The presidents said, listen, it's going to be reciprocal, so
you do it, we do it, And that was going
to be so good, and I really believe in it,
and I feel like a sucker tonight because I am
not a free trader and I do not believe in
free trade. And I was just as tough, if not
tougher than his people.

Speaker 3 (01:24:36):
But they screwed it up.

Speaker 23 (01:24:37):
And they really need it get it a totally ill
advised way, and I was very let down, exactly.

Speaker 2 (01:24:43):
And he's not alone. And even the economists look at it,
they can't explain it. There's no logic to it. They
can't work out what the calculation or the mathematics was.
They certainly can't explain why an island for the penguins
gets tariffs as well, and so it goes. The whole
thing is a cluster and it will start to unfold
even more.

Speaker 1 (01:25:00):
Up.

Speaker 2 (01:25:00):
We're in the New Zealand market open shortly ten to nine.

Speaker 1 (01:25:03):
The Mike Hosking Breakfast with Bailey's Real Estate News.

Speaker 2 (01:25:07):
Dogs Dead be they got rid of the or impeached
the South Korean president over the weekend. I forgot to
mention that earlier on in the program, but that's been
bubbling away for the last couple of times. Not to
be confused with the Prime Minister, who's also been an issue.
But the whole of the Korean situation is a moveable
feast at the moment. A number of you like this
aviation geek here, Mike, the on time performance data that
you gave for in New Zealand, et cetera, et cetera,
et cetera. Cut a long story short. I gave you

(01:25:30):
main trunk roots. There's regional as the issue, and I
think we probably know that, so we're chasing that up today.
There is some suggestion that a New Zealand works fairly
hard not to have the regional stuff released because in
there is the numbers, there are the numbers that are
a problem. So we'll talk to the status department today,
see why they don't release them, Can they release them,
Will they release them, and will report back on the

(01:25:51):
program tomorrow. Then we come to the business of White
Lotus this afternoon, which comes to its conclusion what I
can't And it's one of the few programs that's in
the last whatever half dozen weeks really sort of globally
kind of gone off, mainly due as far as I
can work out, to the seemingly unending amount of publicity
the stars seem to want to do, either indicating they

(01:26:13):
just love being interviewed, or to the show's tanked. It's
a dog, it's not rating, and so they're desperate to
get the publicity and the word out. But you're seeing
if you read the international press, these guys have been
literally everywhere, being interviewed by literally everybody, and it all
culminates allegedly in ninety minutes of bang there it is,
wrap it up ninety minutes, ninety minutes as of this afternoon,

(01:26:36):
an hour earlier, because we've gone back in time, of course,
which helps it. So the culmination. I'm in abeyance and
having watched season one. In season two, I'm a little
bit out on season three. I'll be back for season four.
I'm not one of those sort of people, but I
don't believe it doesn't feel like it's been quite as
good as one or two. It may well amend itself
this afternoon over the ninety minutes, but we'll be talking

(01:26:59):
about tomorrow five minutes away from nine.

Speaker 1 (01:27:02):
Trending now with the chemist Warehouse, the home of big
brand ftamins.

Speaker 2 (01:27:06):
And we'll be talking about this as well. So Musk
was with the Italian League over the weekend via zoom
talking about this idea of free trade and no tariffs
between the EU and the US. He's run into some
trouble with Petere Navarro, who's one of the heavyweights, former
jailbird but now hanging out with Trump. And so Musk

(01:27:27):
said on X that having an economics degree from Harvard
is a bad thing, not a good thing, and Navarro
doesn't know anything because he quote ain't built shit. So
Navarro came back.

Speaker 24 (01:27:44):
It was interesting to hear Elon Musk at the beginning
talk about his zero tariff zone with Europe. He didn't
understand that. And the thing that's I think important about
Elon to understand he sells cars, that's what he does.
And if you look, for example, at the Tesla factories
in their assembly plants, and they get a lot of
their content from China, Mexico, Japan and Taiwan and elsewhere.

Speaker 2 (01:28:09):
Right, So none of that makes any sense at all.
So what's he's saying is that all the places that
make those parts are going to upsticks and move to
America now, so that every single aspect of the Tesla
is made uniquely in America. Is that what he's saying.
Guy's an idiot. None of that's happening. And that's the problem.
And this is where Musk, who's as insane as any
of them, does nevertheless understand the real world because he

(01:28:33):
lives in the real world. He hasn't been in jail
like Navarro has. So he understands that you can't make
certain bits of cars in America without making you seventy
thousand dollars Tesla or one hundred and seventy thousand.

Speaker 22 (01:28:45):
No, I mean, he gets it. That's why when he
was starting up his space business and.

Speaker 11 (01:28:49):
Rockets were too expensive to buy in America, he went
to Russia books instead.

Speaker 2 (01:28:54):
By the way, the other people texting saying why weren't
the tariffs on Russia conspiracy? Conspiracy, conspiracy. The reason is
Russia is banned basically all over the world from trading.
There is no trade between Russia and the United States. Therefore,
there is no need for a terrify on something that
doesn't exist. Even Trump understands that aspect of it, surprisingly
because he tariffs the Penguins.

Speaker 3 (01:29:15):
Now.

Speaker 2 (01:29:16):
We'll be back tomorrow with Bruce Hornsby among others.

Speaker 3 (01:29:19):
As always, Happy Days.

Speaker 1 (01:29:24):
For more from the mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to
news talks it'd be from six am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio.

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