Full Show Podcast: 07 August 2025

Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
New Zealand's voice of reason is Mike the Mic, asking
breakfast with Bailey's real estate altogether better across residential, commercial
and rural news talks, head Beam to.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
Day, the Job, the tax and the Supermarket's also Keywi's
pulling in well, they're falling over in Europe, apparently claiming
record amounts of insurance. Kayleie Bell back for a song
and a chat to Arthur Rates, Joe Atennas and Italy
Rod Little will present himself from the United Kingdom, asking
of the Thursday seven past six does the headline feed
the narrative? And having brought into the narrative, we're all

(00:34):
in a funk. So my new fixation this week is
Australia and their consumer confidence, which you can mount a
half decent cases based on little or nothing, thus leading
you to conclude that they simply want to feel good
about themselves, whereas we don't. Yesterday, a couple of things,
the jobless right, five point two not bad? They said
it would be five point three things. Well, surely you
can be upbeat about that, then, mind you Australia's four
point two that's material and at least to some extent,

(00:56):
undermines my argument anyway. The other thing yesterday the Commerce
Commission and yet more supermarket bagging headline New Zealand grocery
prices higher than OECD average. There, Goo go to town
on that a rip? What a scam, Go get them Nicoler,
But the gap is closing. Good news. It's only three
percent higher than the average. And besides the figures, I
don't know if this was reported widely, but the figures

(01:17):
from twenty twenty three, now here's the real goald Auckland
said the Commers Commission had more competition. No consumers in
small towns and rural localities typically had minimal or no choice.
You see why we need experts because surely we could
never worked that out for ourselves anyway. So if competition
had a real tangible effect on prices, Auckland should be
laughing because the major players and supermarkets in Auckland had

(01:39):
seventy one percent of the market, but eighty eight percent
round the rest of the country. So is Auckland laughing? No,
it isn't why because this obsession the Commerce Commission has
along with Nickeoler, is all theory. Would another player in
a place like ha Hai see some competition in a
few more discounts, sure, but most of us, and by
the way, ninety percent of us live within ten minutes
of a major supermarket. We have choice, and a lot

(02:01):
of it. The three percent they talk of in relation
to the OECD, which is probably closed anyway given the
age of the data, could just be where five million
people at the bottom of the world where a geographically
tricky population layout, But get a good headline and then
it's an instant funk wow.

Speaker 1 (02:20):
News of the world. In ninety second, we.

Speaker 2 (02:22):
Had an active shooter at an army base in Georgia.

Speaker 3 (02:25):
It's a large base.

Speaker 2 (02:26):
It's on so many counties.

Speaker 4 (02:27):
I think what you should be looking for is where
they want the outside intervention to come in with us.
They have to contain everything from within the base, get
everything shut down there first, and then bring everybody in
as needed.

Speaker 2 (02:39):
They got it salted five shot and they got him
as well. In the Middle East, the biggest game in
town is the a blame game.

Speaker 5 (02:44):
Almost one thousand trucks.

Speaker 6 (02:46):
First, we're waiting in Gaza after clearance by Israel, after
idea facility venture into Gaza.

Speaker 2 (02:52):
The un prevented aid.

Speaker 7 (02:54):
From being distributed.

Speaker 2 (02:55):
There would be enough for the entire of Gaza for
many days. In Britain, the government is growing well, it's
got growing trouble. A couple of things. Firstly, the one
in one out migrant plane.

Speaker 8 (03:03):
Will allow people with us to send people back to
France who have human rights claims.

Speaker 9 (03:10):
Those claims will be heard in France, so I know.

Speaker 10 (03:14):
That the Conservative Party has been saying that this is
a loophole, it isn't.

Speaker 2 (03:19):
Also the growing reality that despite the fact they said
they wouldn't, they will have to raise Texas.

Speaker 11 (03:25):
Some of the figures that have been put out are
not figures that I recognize. But the budget won't be
until later in the year, and that's why we'll have
the forecast then and we'll set out our plans.

Speaker 2 (03:37):
They also have the grooming gang problem, so they've decided
AI can help Their.

Speaker 8 (03:41):
Manner in which they collect their ethnicity data has to
change and that they need to be gathering the data
on the ethnicity of the perpetrators, don't care whether the
councils want it or not.

Speaker 2 (03:51):
And just to round out the yankster, heavily edited version
of Mastership is Becony Tonight, featuring the now the smister
Grigg in John.

Speaker 12 (03:58):
People do not feel comfortable because because they feel that
making an allegation would be absolutely detrimental to their own
career because they will not cap the next job rather
than it would be to the person they are accusing
of wrongdoing.

Speaker 2 (04:12):
Finally, forget Epstein or Russia, Russia, Russia. Tulsey as in
Gabbard is here to tell y'aull there are aliens and
UFOs out there. So she's on a podcast. She said
she needed to be careful with what could be shared
because of the piece of hard information that she's puarly too.
But good news ten hatters, she will be sharing the
truth when the time comes. The medals the news of

(04:34):
the world. In ninety speaking of that particular part of
the world, Trump's hit India with another twenty five if
you've missed that, So that's fifty percent, and they've hit
He's done the right thing here because India is buying
oil from Russia. They're quite open about it, and he goes,
that's not on, so I'm going to sting it, so
fifty percent. Meantime, India, speaking of which their central bank
has held their cash rate. They've maintained the GDP forecast

(04:56):
for a year at six point five percent, cut their
inflation rate to three point one from three point seven,
and that cash right, said he at five point five
twelve past six.

Speaker 1 (05:07):
The Mike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeart Radio
Power by News Talk Zippy.

Speaker 2 (05:15):
A couple of other Trump things are best. Since no
longer going to be considered for the FED job, Murdoch
and Trump have decided to pause for now on that
ten billion dollar nonsense that he was suing Murdop for
over the Wars writ Journal and Apple have announced overnight
another one hundred billion that already committed five hundred billion
into America. This is to expand their operations in America.

(05:35):
So they're at six hundred billion in counting. Fifteen past
six JMI Wealth Andrew Callahoo, good morning, very good morning, Mike.
Headline number. But it's what's below the bonnet, Andrew, that counts,
isn't it?

Speaker 13 (05:47):
Well?

Speaker 2 (05:48):
That is right.

Speaker 10 (05:48):
I was just interested in what you were saying before, Mike,
because look, one of the features about these labor market
does just so much to ask because we only get
it once a quarter. So let's try and sort of
peck through it so that people go away, sort of
trying to understand these numbers a little bit more. Yeah,
you're right, you know, the unemployment rate was better than expected.

Speaker 5 (06:06):
It came in at five point two percent versus five
point three percent.

Speaker 10 (06:09):
And one comment I was making regularly yesterday when we
were talking about this in the office is that at
five point two percent, we had a great decade, didn't we.
From twenty ten to twenty twenty, remember that, you know,
rockstar economy and all that sort of stuff. For half
of that period of time, the unemployment rate was actually
higher than it is now.

Speaker 5 (06:29):
The thing is it was getting incrementally better over that
whole period.

Speaker 10 (06:34):
The problem we've got at the moment is that this
is getting incrementally worse. I think that affects confidence. I
think that affects the way people think.

Speaker 5 (06:41):
Let's just look at the numbers. The unemployment rate five
point two percent.

Speaker 10 (06:44):
That means that there was one hundred and fifty eight
thousand unemployed people. The underutilization rate. This is people who
want more work. And this is where it got. This
is where it's you know, under the boness, it's starting
to look a little bit worse. We went from twelve
point four to twelve point eight, quite a big shift.

Speaker 5 (06:59):
There.

Speaker 10 (07:00):
Key key to this whole argument, of the whole conversation
is the participation rate.

Speaker 5 (07:05):
It went from it was at seventy point five.

Speaker 10 (07:08):
It has fallen from seventy point eight, so there are
fewer people wanting to participate in the workforce employment. So
looking at it from the glass half full, I suppose
employment fell year and year zero point nine percent. That's
worse than the arbuients that expectation and private sector wage growth.

Speaker 5 (07:25):
This is what wages doing.

Speaker 10 (07:26):
Labor cost index zero point six percent quarter on quarter,
two point three percent year on year. What's inflation running
at more more? That's more. So you're actually going a
little bit backwards. So let's make a few more comments.
Lower participation rate tempers the unemployment rate. June twenty twenty three,
only two years ago, the participation rate was seventy two
point four.

Speaker 5 (07:47):
That's a material move. Those people have just left the workforce.

Speaker 10 (07:50):
The usual logic is that that lower labor force participation
reflex arising discouraged workers. It just gets too hard. They
just check out of the process. That's not good. And
I think you know, Aanzi did some research about the
fact that they think there's been labor hoarding since COVID,
and if we don't see the economic recovery, then they'll
start to say, well, we do really need those those

(08:12):
workers that we've been hoarding, and.

Speaker 5 (08:13):
You could see a step shift in the unemployment rate.

Speaker 10 (08:15):
Just a few other worrying signs, paid hours fell ours
worked fell that hours worked has fallen out for six
consecutive quarters.

Speaker 5 (08:26):
The underutilization rate except for sort of weird, weird.

Speaker 10 (08:30):
COVID number, the underutilization rate hasn't been that high since
June twenty and sixteen.

Speaker 5 (08:36):
I'll say that again, June twenty sixteen.

Speaker 10 (08:39):
That's nine years. So that's just and that ours workers
have said six consecutive quarters. So these are worrying signs
in the background. Look, Mike, the aarbian zaid doesn't have
employments in their mandate. They only have inflation. But it's
a key input into demanded. People ain't work and they
ain't buying, and so I think they've now got to
take some steps on the ocr But as we said
yesterday also Mike, the labor market is a lagging indicator.

Speaker 5 (09:01):
It's the sort of last ship to turn.

Speaker 10 (09:04):
So you know, we would expect to see this at
the end of the economic cycle. But it also doesn't
turn quickly. So for the incumbent government this could become.

Speaker 2 (09:13):
Problematic exactly because if you ask yourself, here we are
in Q three, do you feel things are getting better?
I don't see it. And near ours work thing is GDP.

Speaker 5 (09:22):
That's right.

Speaker 10 (09:23):
Yeah, So you're looking at a pretty you're looking at
some fairly ugly signs for Q two.

Speaker 2 (09:27):
GDP in here, Okay, I got macs this morning in
Disney is so far it seems reasonably positive.

Speaker 5 (09:33):
No, here we go.

Speaker 2 (09:34):
We're going to finish on a high.

Speaker 5 (09:35):
It's looking good. So you've got weak economic.

Speaker 10 (09:37):
Data in the US that we're starting to see that.
We're in the middle of the second quarter earning season.
So for investors, what's corporate performance looking like? Well, the
answer is looking pretty good. About two thirds of companies
have reported MIKE and five four out of every five
eighty two percent of reported positive earnings for share surprises,
earnings growth.

Speaker 3 (09:56):
Simple rule.

Speaker 10 (09:57):
If earnings growth is heading higher, that tends to sheer markets.
Ten point three percent second quarter vis the second quarter
last year. Third consecutive quarter of double digit earnings growth.

Speaker 5 (10:07):
I'd call that robust.

Speaker 10 (10:09):
Look the valuations, you know, so how much the prices
reflect the earnings. Well, they are sort of kind of
high at the moment. Makes seven tens to skew that look.
But I think the innings picture looks pretty good year today,
sm P five hundred and US dollar terms, it's up
a touch over seven percent. Now, if you think about
the carnage that we saw in April, I.

Speaker 5 (10:27):
Think that's pretty good. Not numbers preies the well, actually
these also look pretty good.

Speaker 10 (10:33):
The dal Jones is upero point two nine percent forty
four thousand, two hundred and forty one, the S and
P five hundred is up point seven three percent six thousand,
three hundred and forty five are, and the Nasdaq is
up over one percent one point one four percent. Twenty
one thousand, one hundred and fifty four forts one hundred
overnight gain a quarter percent excuse me, nine one sixty four.

(10:53):
The Nicket up point sixty one percent forty thousand, seven
nine four, shan I Composite up point four to five
three sixty three four. The OSSI's yesterday gained point eight
four of a percent eighty eight hundred and forty three.
We gained three points twelve thousand, eight hundred and eighty
and actually market reaction to those labor market numbers in
New Zeald Mike was pretty muted.

Speaker 2 (11:13):
Keew we dollar out a.

Speaker 5 (11:13):
Little bit stronger.

Speaker 10 (11:14):
Point five nine three five against the US, point nine
one two five against the ossie point five oh ninety
five Euro point four four four four against the pound
eighty seven point three eight jepanesey end gold three thousand,
three hundred and seventy four dollars and break.

Speaker 5 (11:29):
Crude it's behaving.

Speaker 10 (11:30):
It is behaving sixty seven dollars and sixty five.

Speaker 2 (11:34):
Nice ketchup to morrow Andrew kellerher Jmiwealth dot Co, dot
m Z Pascal opposition Disney. They had a very nice time.
So what have they got? Revenue at twenty three point
six point billion. This is globally, of course, over all
revenues up two percent. Streaming business going well. They've up
their fiscal guidance experiences that means Disneyland that sort of thing,
up eight percent, Domestic theme park revenue up ten percent,

(11:55):
Screaming up six percent. Disney plus added one point eight
million subscribers around the world, so there's one hundred and
twenty eight million of US now. Hulu grew one percent
to fifty five million, so there's nothing much to be
worried about there. Six twenty one. You're a News Talks,
there'd be.

Speaker 1 (12:17):
The Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by the News Talks at b I've got.

Speaker 2 (12:25):
Some quite good news on cars and New Zealand new
sales are I'll give you the number shortly. But McDonald's
globally just a couple of things that affect basically all
of us all over the world because we're all the same.
McDonald's are back. They've had some trouble of blake. People
got sick of McDonald's, but they've turned it round. Things
are up three point eight percent. Same store sales revenue
six point eight billion. US restaurants up a bit. But
outside the US, which is US, huge demand for Big

(12:47):
Mac and French rice. Apparently it's what they're saying this morning.
Uber revenues up eighteen percent. Jeez, we're loving Uber revenue
at thirteen billion almost. Mobility that's your Uber rides twenty
three billion, up eighteen percent. I mean that's a lot
in a quarter, up eighteen percent. Delivery, which is your food,
that's up twenty percent. So they're booming. Gross bookings up
seventeen percent, the number of consumers who use Uber's up

(13:09):
fifteen percent, and those users booked three point three billion
troops in the last quarter of six twenty five.

Speaker 1 (13:17):
Trending now with chemist Wells keeping Kiwi's healthy all.

Speaker 2 (13:21):
Year rount and who said TV's did south Park so hot?

Speaker 7 (13:24):
Rate?

Speaker 2 (13:24):
Now? After the first episode the other day, this is
season twenty seven, we're up to South Park featured Trump's manhood,
him sleeping with Satan and his tariffs. We're buckled up
now for episode two today. White House didn't like episode one.
They called it tacky, unoriginal, distasteful, and irrelevant. So what
have we got ahead of today? Wednesday, August six.

Speaker 14 (13:44):
You can just shut up, Maybee because you hate America
and you love a voice.

Speaker 3 (13:47):
In it all In South Park.

Speaker 7 (13:51):
Epic season continues.

Speaker 15 (13:52):
We want to honor the President's courage.

Speaker 3 (13:55):
Stop South Karke New episode Wednesday, August city.

Speaker 2 (13:59):
That's all we got. Pokes fun at Republican mouthpiece, Charlie Kirk,
Christy Noman, Ice agents and in a twist, the Ice
agents the Homeland Security people have grabbed part of that
trailer stuck it on X as part of a recruitment drive,
and that prompted Trey Parker and Matt Stone At, the
creators of the show, to reply, so we're irrelevant hashtag
eat a bag of dicks. Quite like that. It goes

(14:19):
out two pm today our time at Comedy Central or
Paramount Plus if you've got that, But it doesn't actually
play on Comedy Central in this country until ten oh
five tonight, four samphil It was because it might be
adult content, but I'm not sure that's one hundred percent trough.
I just think we're a small country at the bottom
of the world that takes a long time for the
program to travel that distance on the wires would be

(14:41):
my theory. This shopping grocery thing from the Commerce Commission yesterday,
I will ask Nichola Willis is with us later what
the comics are they bought. Telling me that there's more
competition than supermarkets in Auckland than there is in a
potokey is not news and does not need a report.
But anyway, that three percent on the oe CD are
we being screwed or not? We'll have a look at

(15:02):
this in the next half hour of the program. Kailey
Bell back for a song and a chat after wait
in the studio here on the My Hosking.

Speaker 1 (15:09):
Breakfast Mike cos Game, we've been safeful, engaging and idle
the Mic Hosking Breakfast with a Vida Retirement Communities, Life
your Way, newth togs Head.

Speaker 2 (15:22):
Be as you know, the EU have suspended their terror
for retaliation on Trump. Trump's going to announce sanction. We'll
go to Joe in a moment in Italy. Trump's announcing
apparently Saturday our time, Friday, there's sanctions against Russia. They've
all been on the phone to each other, whit cops
have been meeting Putin, et cetera, et cetera. Zelenski has
revealed this morning he thinks Putin's heading towards a ceasefire.
And also Trump's run that twenty five percent, told you

(15:44):
at at India to make it fifty percent. So you
put all that together. What's new sanctioned Saturday? So Putin
might be worried, might not be, who knows. Zolenski says,
Putin's heading for a ceasefire, so maybe maybe fingers crossed,
there is some movement there. Twenty three to seven, we'll
go to Joe shortly in Italy. New inside back EVO
into that much debated supermarket sector that I told you

(16:04):
about at the start of the show. So just one
of the ComCom some of the data bit old, which
I would have thought the question in and of itself
in a nutshell, though we pay more than the OEC
the average, and guess what if here in a small
town you have less choice. So Chatwan is the chair
of the Gross Reaction Group and is with us. Sue,
very good morning to you.

Speaker 16 (16:20):
Good morning.

Speaker 2 (16:21):
Is this a statutory obligation for the ComCom because this
report tells me nothing.

Speaker 16 (16:26):
Yes, it is an obligation for them to report every
year at the moment on how we're doing with trying
to bring down prices. And as you can see from
this report, no change from the first one that they
did last year. We're still paying some of the highest
prices in the world for food and we still have

(16:47):
a geopoly situation in New Zealand. Nothing has changed, no
new entrants and therefore pretty unhealthy level of competition.

Speaker 2 (16:57):
When we say highest prices in the world, it isn't
the world, it's the OECD and it's three percent and
the data is from twenty three is not possible, I
mean Why are we dealing with twenty two year old data?

Speaker 16 (17:08):
Well, yeah, yes, you'd had to ask the Commerce Commission that,
but that's that's the data that they can get. It's
not that old when you're looking at at collecting this
sort of statistics. And I guess the important thing important
thing is that there's really no change. Kiwis are still
paying a hell of a lot more than Australians and

(17:30):
say those in the UK for grocery.

Speaker 2 (17:32):
Three percent more. But that gap, as the report says,
is closing. Is there hope point being around the twenty
twenty three By the time we get to twenty twenty five,
is it possible we've closed the gap even more and
therefore if it's one or two percent, it's actually not
the end of the world.

Speaker 16 (17:47):
Well, I don't think that we have very healthy competition
in New Zealand. We have two supermarkets. They have been
under the gun for how many years? Five years and
nothing has changed. So they know that unless you know,
they are going to be really regulated or they you know,

(18:08):
something really big happens to them, they can continue on
and then keyways, you know, face this sort of no
competition and having to pay more at the supermarket.

Speaker 2 (18:19):
Well, when you see no competition, let me quote you
from the report. The report says, for example, in Auckland,
it's in the in the low seventies because there is
competition in Auckland, as opposed to say, ha hey, where
there's eighty eight percent of the market's dominated by the
two big players. Are people in Auckland because of that
increased competition going hey, look at our bargains. No they're not, No,
they not, but ad So what's the number we're looking

(18:39):
for when you talk about competition, what's the number we're
looking for? Fifty sixty seventy forty two.

Speaker 16 (18:43):
So yeah, So in Australia they are moaning and you
know their government is looking at regulating when the two
big supermarkets have sixty percent. So we've got eighty eight
percent here and in Auckland, I think they've got seventy
two percent. We've got slightly decreased prices in Auckland, but

(19:04):
nevertheless still very high. So I think you know, say
you look at a country like Ireland, there's five supermarkets there,
they've got each got twenty five percent share of the market.
If we could get even close to that, then I
think key is the benefit.

Speaker 2 (19:20):
All right, appreciate your time. So suit Chip went out
of the gross reaction group. I don't know how they
have twenty five percent market share and that's five of them,
but there you go. Nikola Willis, how much time do
you want me to spend with? Nikola Willis on supermarkets
as opposed to the job market and announced time nineteen two.

Speaker 1 (19:37):
by News Talks.

Speaker 2 (19:42):
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(20:05):
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practical learning for young people. Asking soon hit the nail

(20:51):
on the head when she said sixty percent in Australia
do their own in Australia. Is that an issue in
Australia the supermarkets, Yes it is. Do they think they're
getting fleeced in Australia, Yes they do. I guarantee if
you want down to a few box pops in Ireland
and said Seamus, do you reckon you're paying too much
for you grocery as they say, top it to more
in it? Absolutely? So I think it's not necessarily the
facts that we're dealing with anymore. It's the emotion and

(21:12):
that's the problem.

Speaker 13 (21:13):
Six forty five International correspondence with Ends and Eye Insurance,
Peace of Mind for New Zealand business.

Speaker 2 (21:19):
Join mc kinnerburg, Good morning for you, Good morning mine.
So these safelans just background, this the EU safeloans. What
are they? How much are they and what are you
going to do with them?

Speaker 4 (21:29):
Well?

Speaker 17 (21:29):
I hadn't really heard about these. This is this program
is security action for Europe. It's called safe It's a
new EU financial instrument introduced in May this year in
which the European Commission will issue up to one hundred
and fifty billion euros of funds to help the member
states increase their expenditure on defense procurement. And as we know,

(21:52):
that's a big priority because of Donald Trump and his
efforts to raise GDP spending to.

Speaker 7 (21:58):
Five percent in Europe.

Speaker 17 (22:00):
Now, the Prime Minister Maloney, Georgia Maloney has been meeting
some of Italy's top CEOs from defense contractors like Leonardo
and fin Conterri, looking at how they can take advantage
of these loans and build up the defense sector.

Speaker 2 (22:14):
Do these once you introduce a new debt instrument, do
they then dubtail into the also EU set of rules
that says you can't run a deficit beyond x percentage
of your GDP or is that completely separate?

Speaker 7 (22:25):
That is a great question. I can't really answer.

Speaker 2 (22:28):
No, No, I knew you couldn't. That's why I asked it,
not to embarrass you at all. I'm just saying that
these people in Europe make this crap up as they
go along, and it's all about debt and the more
debt the better and whatever. The hot topic of the
day is currently it's tanks and bombs. You can borrow
whatever you like. Weird ah yeah yeah. Now, anyway, where
are you at with the EU? You know, the terrorists?

(22:50):
If you worked out what's going on.

Speaker 7 (22:51):
There still plenty of chaos.

Speaker 17 (22:54):
Under the deal reached between the European Union and President
Donald Trump, EU export to the US are set to
face tariffs of fifteen percent from tomorrow. But suddenly the
EU has suspended its retaliatory tariffs on US goods while
they go away and think about a little bit more.

Speaker 2 (23:13):
Yeah, exactly, So, I still I haven't been able to
get my head around with They've suspended them for six
months with a view to what are they negotiating? Was
there an odeal at Turnbrey a couple of weeks ago.

Speaker 17 (23:26):
It sounds like they want to continue negotiating. They were
ready to put countermeasures targeting ninety three billion euros worth
of American goods like bourbon, cars and.

Speaker 7 (23:38):
Soybeans, things like that.

Speaker 17 (23:41):
But suddenly it's all up for grabs, and I think
the European you might be running scared at the moment.

Speaker 2 (23:45):
What a miss is Italy's view of this markedly different
from the other twenty six nations or not?

Speaker 17 (23:52):
Well, I think it comes and goes, but I think
the Italians are certainly very worried about major industries. I
think that we've talked about like luxury goods, wine, agriculture,
pharmaceutical exports. All those things are top of mind for
Georgia Maloney, particularly as she's facing some regional elections later

(24:12):
this year.

Speaker 7 (24:13):
So we'll be talking more about that in the autumn.

Speaker 2 (24:15):
This bridge that they've given the green light to from Sicily,
I've seen it. What I'm assuming is an AI generated
picture of what it could look like. I'm assume it
that'll transform Sicily, won't it. I mean, if you can
drive as opposed to by I mean that'll change the world,
won't it?

Speaker 7 (24:28):
Would you believe?

Speaker 17 (24:29):
There are only five million people that live there and
a whole bunch of tourists that are flooding into the
island right now. Is this bridge really necessary? They've talked
about it forever. It's going to be the world's longest
suspension bridge. The Transport Minister Matteo Slovenia is promising to
finish it by twenty thirty three, which might be a
little ambitious.

Speaker 7 (24:49):
Do we really need it? I'm not sure? And will
it happen?

Speaker 2 (24:52):
Is the mafia going to build it? Is the mafia
going to build it?

Speaker 6 (24:57):
Yeah?

Speaker 7 (24:58):
Well that is the big problem.

Speaker 17 (24:59):
I mean, since maffia penetration of the construction industry is
pretty high in this country, so it'll be a huge
challenge to keep them out of it.

Speaker 2 (25:07):
If I was the mafia, I'd build it halfway and
then tell them pay me extra or so I'm not
finishing now? How much for pepper Impulia?

Speaker 17 (25:18):
I saw a great story tonight with pictures of the
bill in the restaurant. They haven't named the restaurant, but
they said on this bill and you can see it
in writing, they were charging an extra fifty cents for
the pepper that they added or were requested, was requested
by the clients, and that's caused enough for in Italy.

Speaker 2 (25:38):
Good on you. Nice to catch up, Joe. We'll see
next to this. Thanks by Joe mckenner and Itale. It's
ten to seven the.

Speaker 1 (25:43):
Mic Hosking Breakfast with a Vita Retirement Communities News togs
Head be Yeah.

Speaker 2 (25:49):
I was looking at the trade me asking it's what
they call a Pulse report, average asking price. I'm not
into asking prices. I mean what you ask and what
you get a two completely different things, of course, but
year on year down zero point four percent, so she's
a bit flat. So interesting divergence. I think that's probably
ad I was writing a story about this, I go,
interesting divergence in the property market. Three point three up

(26:09):
in Gisbon, two point seven up in Hawke's Bay, one
point two up again Canterbury, five point three up in
South and one point nine up in Taranaki. So you've
got a lot of places around the country that are
actually doing quite well. Nelson Tasman's even up. Marlboro's been
tanking minus six point two. I don't know what's happened there.
Does no one want to live in Marlboro. Wh wouldn't
you want to live in Marlborough for goodness sake. The
big centers though, Auckland down one point one, Wellington down

(26:32):
one point two, so the major centers Wykato down zero
point eight. So that's your update on that. By the way,
speaking of howses, just while I've got you the number
of people who are borrowing money, we gave you the
numbers from the Reserve Bank the other day. In mortgage money.
Mortgage money did really well in June. There seems to
be a surge and mortgage money in June, so investors
first time buys the whole thing. So that's interesting. Forty

(26:54):
percent of you are on a fixed one year, which
is probably wise. Don't take my advice. I'm just observing
twenty five percent or on the floating. So the twenty
five percent on the floating will be going. There's more
where that came from, which is true. There is the
ARB's gotta cut twice now, has to given these job
numbers because they've got the job numbers wrong, so you're
gonna have to cut twice. I still maintain and I
think I'm going to be proven to be right by

(27:16):
next year that neutrals two point five. This three percent
things bollocks. Two point seventy five is what a lot
of the banks are saying. But I think it's two
point five anyway. So if you're on you're floating, you're
thinking there's more where that came from, and you are correct.
Eleven percent of gone for two years, ten percent of
gone for eighteen months, eight percent of gone for six months,
and five percent of gone for three years. Why you've
gone for three years? I don't know. Maybe you don't

(27:37):
care more importantly, And I'll flesh this out after seven
o'clock because this is the story that seemingly everyone's missing.
And I don't know. If you're not worried about this,
I don't know what there is to worry about. Sixteen
percent of kids latest numbers, sixteen percent of kids left
school with no qualifications none. So on one hand, we're

(27:58):
fixating about the jobless numbers and will know and get
a job. Well, half of them can't get a job
because they they haven't got a clue, because they haven't
got a qualification, they can't participate. Sixteen percent. So that's
the highest figure in a decade. It's a disaster. Thirteen
percent of last year's leavers had not reached literacy or
numerousy benchmarks. Eighty one percent of last year's leave it

(28:19):
has stayed at school until the age of seventeen year beyond.
That's up a bit, so that's encouraging Mari the worst. Unsurprisingly,
twenty eight percent left with no qualification at all. Twenty
eight percent left with no qualification at all go to
a place like Toatukara. It's twenty percent. I mean, what
hope is there for this country if we still letting

(28:41):
kids walk out the gate with nothing? What was the
point of going to school? And bet you half the
problems half of them didn't four minutes away from seven.

Speaker 1 (28:51):
While the ins and the outs. It's the fiz with
business favor, take your business productivity to the next level.

Speaker 2 (28:58):
Chocolate News, I've got a collab. They've teamed up with
a biotech company called pair Wise, and so what they're
going to try and do is gene edit some cocoa
to make it more resilient. Crisper is the tech. It's
a tool that makes fast changes to your DNA and
has been used to well, they've done it to farming
crops all that sort of stuff. This is sort of
not new, but they're going to have a crack at coco,

(29:19):
and the coco hopefully will withstand disease and heat and
other climate related events. And the reason it can't at
the moment is because the price has gone through the roof,
or the price has gone through the roof because it can't.
So the current price is up three hundred percent. They
haven't seen anything like it in fifty years. You've got Garner.
Garner makes all the cocoa, well most of it anyway.
They say next season they're looking at an increase in
price of about sixty percent. Garner is responsible for twenty

(29:42):
percent of all the global supply and chocolate. So that's
before we get to coffee. So why don't they just
crisper up the coffee, crisper up the cocoa, and sort
some problems out for goodness sake? Right this thing the rucks,
I mean, what does it matter if you pay some
tax at the petrol pump, or you pay it for
your diesel and you go down to the post office
and buy some more miles, or you pay it via

(30:03):
an app or whatever. You know, they're just changing the
mechanism is this a major We'll look at this and
see how it impacts you and the Finance Minister Nichola
Willis is with us after seven o'clock and Kaylee Bell after.

Speaker 1 (30:13):
Eight news Opinion and everything in between, the mic hosting
breakvent with Rainthrover leading by example, news togs dead.

Speaker 2 (30:22):
Be well seven past seven. There's nothing like a line,
is there? The biggest change in fifty years to get
the old media in a fizzon off, they went with
what seems a fairly simple to change of payment mechanism.
As far as I can work out petrol taxes going,
you'll pay on mileage and wait the way a lot
of people already do. Martin Glynn's the AA Transports policy
director and is with us. Martin, morning to you, Good
morning mate. In terms of a revenue stream, this was
really the only way the government could go, isn't it?

Speaker 12 (30:45):
Oh?

Speaker 18 (30:45):
I think absolutely long term, as vehicles become more fuel
a fission and people start, you know, there's different ways
of pairing vehicles. As we all know, it's just not sustainable.
So yeah, we actually do need to make the shift.

Speaker 2 (30:59):
Do you reckon? The bear boners are going to be
in for a shock if they haven't thought that through.
Given a lot of this is based on weight, Sorry,
I didn't quite understand your question the bevoner. So if
you went out and bought a BEV and thought, I'm
not paying petrol anymore. Who Given a lot of this
is based on weight as well as mileage, you're in
for a shot because the chances are you won't know
how much carway Isn't it ways a ton? Several tons?

Speaker 18 (31:18):
In fact, I think most people will probably be okay
unless they change the weight classification. There's been no hint
to that, so at the moment that the minimum cut
off for the very lowest level is three point five
tons through a vehicle, so hopefully most people will come
with a map.

Speaker 2 (31:35):
The electronics behind it. Do you is the transfer easy
if you get an app or you get a sensor
in your car or whatever that turns out to be.
Is that easy?

Speaker 18 (31:46):
The announcement's been a little bit vague, serisonly for new cars.
The Minister's been key it clear that a lot of
that data in the systems are already available in the
car itself, so that that should be fairly forward. But
I think that what he seems to be singling is
that we're moving to electronic devices, you know, to measure

(32:08):
distance and wait, so that would be actually something in
vehicles like we have to heavy vehicles now in the old.

Speaker 2 (32:16):
Suit, well, the current system when you buy a mile,
so you're running a diesel, you're buying miles that can
slip because it's all paperwork and you're wander into the
post office and all that sort of stuff. Is they've
got to get around that, don't they.

Speaker 18 (32:26):
Yeah, that's the big issue because people need to check
their doometers. You know, that's none of us need to
do that with any other kind of bullets. It just
it just comes to us. So he's made it pretty
clear that will be addressed, and we're we're you know,
we're looking to see how that will be. And then
you're right, you can go online and that's fairly straightforward,

(32:47):
but you've got to wait for a for a license
in the mail and then and then put on your
one screen. So it sounds like all that's going to go.

Speaker 2 (32:53):
Okay, good on your MT. Appreciate it, Martin Glenn. I'm
assuming I'm probably being foolish here, but ultimately, what you
want electronically, your connection to the government is the ability
for them to do road user charges, tolls on roads,
and everything you do in your car will be done electronically.
But I'll probably be well dead before they get to that.
Ten minutes past seven past, we got job to the

(33:15):
headline at five point two wasn't as bad as the
fire point three forecast, although Auckland at six point one.
I mean, come on, Mike Jones, ban Z's chief economist,
is back with this, Mike, morning to you.

Speaker 18 (33:24):
Good morning.

Speaker 2 (33:25):
So five two better than five three, obviously open the hood.
Though there's a lot to be depressed about, isn't there.

Speaker 19 (33:31):
Yeah, Look, you didn't have to scratch too far below
the surface to find some conclusions that we're probably but
weaker when you put them all together in terms of
what we're expecting in the labor marketing. Auckland, as he said,
was probably one that's twelve year high.

Speaker 3 (33:44):
And of course the.

Speaker 19 (33:45):
Whole reason unemployment and rise by more is that the
participation rate fell to a four year low, in more
people leaving the labor force. Hardly a positive signal.

Speaker 2 (33:54):
No, six point one. How bad is that for Auckland.
I mean, that's the allegedly the engine room of the country.

Speaker 19 (33:59):
Yeah, forty percent of the conferent outpoot comes out of Auckland,
and that's six point three percent at a twelve y
high is concerning. I mean, it does give you a
sense of just the divergence up and down the country
as well. I mean it's Hargo two point nine percent,
so you know, quite a big difference. But it does
give you a bit more evidence that in totality the

(34:21):
lay market is not in good shape and certainly weaken
and I think what the Brazero Bank had expected.

Speaker 2 (34:27):
Exactly are they stuck in their building in Wellington? Are
I mean, yes, they'll get the numbers, but I mean
I happen to live in Auckland, as I assume you do.
You can feel it, you can see it. You know
it's bad, and they don't seem to be reflecting that
at the RB and on the terrace.

Speaker 19 (34:43):
Well, the ARB's in Wellington and if anything thinks down
there are probably bit worse than it's. Certainly Auckland and
Wellington the urban centers that are feeling this the most.
And of course we're waiting for some of the more
upbeat sentiment and the rural reasons to spread back to
the cities. Hasn't happened so far. Look, I think what
this does for the Zoo Bank is is it locks
in another cut in a couple of weeks time. I

(35:05):
think that was pretty likely anyway. But the fact that
we've got the start of come and gone now we
can we think that that almost seals the deal for
one more and probably two more rate cups.

Speaker 2 (35:14):
Yes, exactly two more after that, or so you've got
the one coming this month plus two more after that.
I've got two point five is neutral? Now, Yes, you
say two seven five.

Speaker 19 (35:24):
We've been saying to seventy five for us a couple
of years now, so it we're stuck with that two
point five definitely within the realms. I think it's gone
to our heads. If we had our TV, seventy five
would say to the risks at the moment of talking
more to the down to the up. But there's also
a lot of water to go into the bridge before
we get to that final meeting in November.

Speaker 2 (35:44):
And some of that water, though, was alluded to, I
think by Nicola Willis yesterday who said this isn't the
end of it. I mean, yesterday's discussion was could this
be the worst the answers know, isn't it. I mean,
there's more to come.

Speaker 19 (35:54):
Well, the problem that we've got is that we're still
in this stumbling stop start sort of economic recovery, and
any time we get set that there, as we seem
to be in at the moment with this mid ye
ear pocket, it just bushes back the timing of when
you might expect that labor market to start turning around.
So I think we've talked about this before, but we
think that story is sliding probably into the first part

(36:15):
of next year and when you might start see unemployment's
head low rocking.

Speaker 2 (36:19):
All right, nice to talk to you, mic as always,
that's that part of the story is sliding into next year.
So so forget twenty five folks. Shane Jones, I think
summed it up perfectly yesterday, and I'll come back to
that in the moment. Thirteen past seven light ruck charges
for all isn't a bad idea as long as we
don't get senter ticket each time we go fivek's over
the limit. The government also needs to use all the

(36:40):
revenue on roads and not diverting into the consolidated fund. Well, yeah,
that's fair enough too, and I think they do that currently,
so I don't think that's an issue. Might the change
to ruck on petrol a lot more fair for boat
he who have been contributing unfairly to roading under the
current system. The problem with ruxs, Mike is petrol taxes
little and often, but ruck's are larger sums that many
won't acrew for. Well, you can argue that with petrol.
You're can argue that with power. I mean you're not

(37:02):
paying your power bill on the daily basis. You paid
on a month, and every now and again you go,
oh my god, that's more than I thought, or less
than I thought of, whatever the case may be, it's
just another version of what we're already doing. I think,
isn't it.

Speaker 14 (37:12):
Well?

Speaker 2 (37:12):
Team Past.

Speaker 1 (37:14):
The Mike asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talks that Be.

Speaker 14 (37:21):
Now.

Speaker 2 (37:21):
I didn't pick him up on it at the AA,
but watch this space. When you mentioned the three and
a half tons, which is the current rule around you know,
above all below three and a half tons, I would
not be surprised if the government breaks it down further.
And so if they're going to run you on miles
as well as weight, they're going to have to get
into the business of how much cars weighs as opposed

(37:42):
to trucks, And so I wouldn't be surprised if the
government do a one ton, one point three tons, one
point six tons, two tons, two and a half tons
and do it that way. And so all of a sudden,
the weight of your car is going to be material
as well as how many miles Because you've got to remember,
this is all about raising revenue. So make no mistake.
This has got nothing to do with anything other than
raising rebege you. And if they can do it through
weight and miles, remember we I mean.

Speaker 11 (38:05):
They don't want it.

Speaker 19 (38:05):
They don't want us to be paying the same amount
that we're paying now through petrol decks, Are they correct?

Speaker 2 (38:10):
And I don't think that was picked up yesterday either.
We're all got fascinated by the mechanism. All this is
is a revenue raise beginning middle an end. And if
they can sting you and go, well, your beb's two
and a half tons plus you do ten thousand k's
a year, guess what we've got for you? Now other matters.
If you think the job numbers don't sober you up,
what about the money, oh to aid business is currently
own more than one point four billion. This is gst

(38:32):
in paye. That's from twenty five tax year. Do you
know they're still owed forty eight million from twenty eighteen?
Robin Walker Tack's partner at Deloitte, of course back will
this Robin, very good morning to you.

Speaker 1 (38:41):
Good morning.

Speaker 2 (38:41):
Is this any worse than normal if you go back
over years and decades?

Speaker 20 (38:46):
Uh, it's hard to tell from just looking at the reporting,
because they report on what's still outstanding from prior years.
Do they understand like the actual level of debt is
increasing if you look at the year on year of
the amountlet's being left unpaid? So definitely a concerning tree.

Speaker 2 (39:00):
How much of this is COVID all that money that
flushed out that we didn't think we'd ever pay back
and as it turns out, we're not well.

Speaker 20 (39:07):
I think that's when it all started to turn in
terms of tax debt really taking off, because there was
a bit of a mandate to say be kind and
you know, give people some breathing space and actually give
them some more money, as this like a small business
cash flow loan, would be a bit weird to say,
I already giving out a loan to them but then
asking them to pay back their tax at the same time.

Speaker 2 (39:29):
Yeah, construction, I'm assuming is worse than most if you're
breaking it down by sector.

Speaker 20 (39:35):
Yeah, certainly in absolute numbers. So there's almost a billion
dollars of tax outstanding from construction. So hard to know
how that sort of stacks up against the other industries
because you don't have the details of how many taxpayers
are in that cluster, but you're definitely an alarming sector.

Speaker 2 (39:52):
How do they handle this, I mean, how much is
on the books as an ode that they think will
be paid versus if you were, you know, having a
quie drink and a corny go. You know you're never
going to get that, don't you.

Speaker 20 (40:03):
They do have to do all this is sort of
assessment as part of their annual reporting. So of that
one point four that's outstanding, they think that one point
two is collectible. At one hundred and eighty five million
is uncollectible already.

Speaker 2 (40:15):
Okay, And how much of that gets put on a
payment system When you come to me and say you
are three hundred thousand dollars and I say I'll give
you seventeen dollars a week.

Speaker 20 (40:23):
I think ID has become a lot more proactive at
contacting people as soon as possible to put them on
payment plants. I think key thing is for anybody that
does have any tax debt is get in contact with
ID as soon as possible, because as soon as you
pay it off, the sooner bad things will stop happening
to you. So if you're not paying your tax, you're

(40:45):
getting interest at ten point eight eight applied to all
of that, you've got a five percent a cumulative late
payment penalty being applied. The problem is not actually going away.
You need to pull your head out of the sand
and face your problems.

Speaker 2 (40:58):
Good on your Robin, Nice to talk to you. It
was always sooner bad things will stop happening. Some of
the brown things will stop happening to you. Shane Jones
I have something to say about him in a moment.
He might be a genius. Seven twenty.

Speaker 1 (41:11):
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Speaker 2 (41:20):
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it's got very impressive inclusions. So heavily discounted interest rate,

(41:42):
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If you're into the business at first Home you don't
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your grand kids, that sort of thing. SBS bank should
be your first pull of co first Home lending and
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Speaker 21 (42:03):
Of course.

Speaker 2 (42:04):
For all you need to know about the SBS Bank's terms,
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about SBS First Home Combo fast etan twenty four right
change Jones fast Becoming my favorite politician might have summed
up the government's issues with one of his increasingly famous quips.

(42:26):
Here's what he said. The Ruth Richardson bear austerity approach
is not delivering the economic growth we need. Is he right?
I think he's right, isn't he? Classic liberal politics? Trim
and cut not the mess of bomb we need. So
as Chris Bishop yesterday was offering more detail on these
ruck charges and a move away from petrol taxes, all

(42:46):
which is fine. Shane and his mate Winston we're wandering
around Marsden Point and talking about making it a special
economic zone, tax treatment incentives to get people to invest
do things. Marsden's got land, they got a port close
to the shipping lands, et cetera. Ireland have made these
things famous. So cut a deal on rates or tax,
bring them on and stoke them on up watch the
growth explode image might be a problem. Shane and Winston

(43:07):
both of course come from well Marsden, so it's a bit,
you know, nepotistic, but the idea is sound. Shane is
also this week, if you've missed it, announced a massive
up evil and fishing, biggest in decades. So it's the
big stuff that we may need because the regular size
stuff clearly hasn't provided the heft we'd hoped for. Yes, yes,
yes they inherited a mess. I get all that, but
the results are what count and has that changed the laws?

(43:29):
This week on round Garden Sheds and Nicola talks about supermarkets.
Yet again, it might just be ideas beyond our normal comprehension.
Are what are actually needed? For the irony of the
Jones idea? Is it's not part of the coalition deal?
You could ask the question, and indeed, I am why not?
Is the Ruth Richardson line an acceptance that what they
thought would work hasn't and isn't another irony? I'm not

(43:53):
sure how Shane and Winston can wander around Marsden by
the Way Blue, skying their way out of recession when
it's them that's holding up the foreigners from buying a
house after they invested tens of millions of dollars into
the country. But credit where credit is due, Jones seems
to have taken on the mantle of the garskicker. Here
is where a lot of us are at the moment.
This is not a bad government, far from it. It's
perhaps just a timid government and with October twenty six

(44:16):
and a ballot box getting closer. Maybe we need to
shift it up a year skiing Like I run a business.
We've accepted making no money to keep people and jobs.
Can't do it any longer. Redundancies are finally coming. We
are the next wave of businesses. More job losses are happening,
and the numbers are not in yet. There's a lot
of that. One of the banks came up with that
holding figure. They did the research and there's what they
It's called holding. In other words, you think this is

(44:38):
close to the wire. But Brian's a nice guy and
I can't let him go, so I'm going to hang tight.
You see the numbers yesterday, you see the forecasts, etc.
And you go can't hold on any longer, Mike, there's
no upbeat in rural New Zealand except council buildings. Don't
text me that crap what a pile would be? Yes,
Rural New Zealand is booming, Mike, Thank the good Lord. Mike.

(44:58):
What stops the Greens coming into power in two years
and adding an environmental charge or the election is the answer, obviously,
isn't it? If you want an environmental charge? Bout the
greens ruck. Now I have zero interest in buying an EV.
Why should I care about mythosophy or contribution to the
planet when I'm not rewarded for it compared to somebody
driving a guest cars. Well, I told you this two
three four years ago. I said, if you're going out

(45:19):
there to buy a be of today, more for you,
because you will be stung eventually. You would like to
think you've done it for other reasons, But if it
was merely to save money, the government were always going
to get you in. Reality is coming knocking on the door.
Nikola Willis Finance minister with a parlor worries after the News.

Speaker 1 (45:44):
New Zealand's home for trusted news and views, the Mike
Hosking breakfitt with Bailey's real estate altogether better across residential,
commercial and rural news togs, heead be, I like.

Speaker 2 (45:55):
Listening to your comments on the ride user charges. Isn't
it just making it fairer for everyone who uses the
I'd sure the government will get revenue, but at least
for the users it's proportioned. Why should electric housepayer? I
couldn't agree more. That's why I just couldn't get my
head around why mainly the media got so exercised about
it yesterday. I mean, yes, it's a change and it's
a different way of making it, but it's still you're
still paying the same thing. Nothing really changes and its

(46:16):
user pays, which is what we do on pretty much
everything else. Twenty three minutes away from eight well, well
back in the studio for a song of chat after right,
looking all of that particular catch up, back to the
business meantime of the jobs five point two, Yes, lower
than the five point three predicted. So the Finance Minister
did the glass half fall and bemow the miners, which
is fair enough, I guess. Nichola Willis is back with us,
A very good morning to you.

Speaker 9 (46:38):
Good morning, right.

Speaker 2 (46:39):
I do worry, as should you about Auckland though six
point one is a one big increase and two way
too high.

Speaker 9 (46:48):
Yes it is, and that's why we are so focused
on making sure the conditions that are recovery in Auckland
are in place. We're doing six billion dollars worth of
public infrastructure projects ahead of Christmas. There'll be real tea
and real jobs. Importantly, that lower interest rate means that
I think you are going to see some private sector
construction get going again. The lighted to see Auckland port

(47:10):
expansion given the green light during the fast track process,
and that fast track process, we'll see some big developments
occurring in the near future as well. That'll be a
bit of a help to Auckland. But overall, what we're
seeing here is what you always see after an economy
goes through a difficult period, which is that unemployment is
the last thing to get fixed because it does take

(47:31):
time for those lower interest rates to flow through into
the real economy.

Speaker 2 (47:34):
And that is one hundred percent correct. Trouble is, it
was supposed to be happening by now, and certainly happening
by the end of twenty five. And as an economist
on the program said, we can really look now to
twenty twenty six because yesterday was not the worst of it.
And I think you admitted that, didn't you.

Speaker 9 (47:48):
Well, I'm going to push back on you because actually
in the first quarter of this year we had growth
that zero point eight percent, which annualized would be over
three percent that would at war time in Australia. Well,
that was four times the rate of growth that occurred
in the first quarter in Australia. It is actually a
healthy level of growth. Also, when you look at unemployment
compared to what was being forecast ahead of the election,

(48:11):
were now eight thousand fewer people unemployed than had been predicted.
So we are coming in below the worst case scenarios.
That doesn't then we're satisfied, and we have to push
all of those things that are going to support growth.
We're having a export lead recovery. That dairy price is
remaining high. Our exporters are continuing to persevere and access
new markets, get good value. And the government for ourber

(48:34):
is cutting through the red and green cape. We're ensuring
that those public sector construction projects are getting underway. We've
got that investment first tax policy which is giving businesses
confidence and a reason to invest and grow. And we
are going to keep at it. This country has great prospects.
We buy, make and sell things that the world wants.

(48:55):
We do it really well, we do it really efficiently.
That will continue to be the case. We don't need
a bit.

Speaker 22 (49:00):
I do back.

Speaker 2 (49:00):
Yes, I agree, so well argued, and you're right, you're
one hundred percent correct, But your zero point eight, and
this is where you get too political. Zero point eight
was Q one Q two, I doubt will be much
above zero. And Q three is a problem as well,
which off sets you. Let's time zero point eight times
four and come to three point two, because life don't
work that way.

Speaker 9 (49:17):
Nikoler, Well, look, I agree with you. I am very
aware that Q two has been challenging, and you know
Liberation Day in April March the beginning of Q two,
and it is no question I've spoken to many business
people who took caution from that, who've been very nervous
about it, and that will have affected confidence, investment intentions,

(49:39):
all of those things. I think I do have a
job to do, which is to say, yes, it's not
great to have tariffs, but actually, relatives to the rest
of the world, we're okay. Our exporters are very resilient,
they are continuing to grow their volumes, and so let's
not overdo how bad the Trump tariffs are going to
be for New Zealand and lets it knock our confidence.

(50:00):
I think that's what you're saw into you too. It
will be reflected in the real data. I agree, but
I still have great confidence that the fundamentals in the
economy are good.

Speaker 2 (50:08):
Here's your next problem. Wages at two point four and
now below inflation. We're going backwards.

Speaker 9 (50:13):
Well, you're using a different measure. I use the average
hourly earnings measure, which allows for the fact that people
get promotions and change jobs. That roads with five percent
in the part.

Speaker 2 (50:23):
Yeah, well, if you're changing jobs, Nicola, this is you're
too political again. I'm just looking at the numbers yesterday.
Two point four is below the rate of inflation. That
you know people are going to use that against you.
We are going backwards.

Speaker 9 (50:36):
Well, there are two measures that you can use. The
measure you're using as a valid measure. The measure I'm
referring to allows for the fact that people twitch too
to take promotions. The exciting thing in the mic, and
I'm sure you're welcome, is that it's being driven by
private sector wage growth. For a change. We've had a
period in which a lot of the wage growth that
was occurring was through collective bargaining or through equity settlements

(51:00):
and the like, which was the taxpayer paying public servants more.
We now have a situation where it's the private sector
that is able to pay its employees more. That's more
sustainable economy because when the private sector is choosing to
pay their workers more. Not only does that mean that
they are feeling profitable, but it also means we're creating real,
sustainable wage growth. So I take a positive from that.

(51:22):
But I'm with you. We do want to drive all
of those measures higher. But that is not my job
to talk down this economy. It's my job to look
at the real data, what's telling us the positive things
that are happening.

Speaker 2 (51:33):
Now, now we're going to run into trouble with each
other again because I'm at least in part blame well,
I'm blaming the RB. I think Christian Hawksby spends too
much time in a room, and he's wrong, and he
will it's two point five as neutral. He needs at
least three more cuts, and they've undercooked this and that's
not helping. You tell me I'm wrong.

Speaker 9 (51:50):
Well, well, every bank economist seems to agree with you, Mike,
which is the saying in a couple of weeks the
Result Bank needs to reduce interest rates again before casting
at least another reduction by the end of the year,
and on the real data, that would be in line
with the Reserve Bank continuing with its track, which has
continued to be that they should be reducing the official

(52:12):
TESH rate. Now, obviously they're independence they make those decisions,
but independent economists can't see any other than down for
interest rates. And I see that as a positive.

Speaker 2 (52:23):
Well is it? Because my argument would be if they'd
been more nimble, if they'd been more in touch with
the economy, the real economy, not just wants and numbers,
they would have felt it, seen it, and acted sooner.
In acting sooner, it would have turbo charged the place better.

Speaker 9 (52:38):
Well, you've heard my criticisms of the Reserve Bank's decision
making after COVID. I think they overdid it then and
then were reasonably slow to recover. But at this point
what we can see is they've got options, got the
ability to move down. And that's what everyone's expecting to see.

Speaker 2 (52:56):
Yeah, I couldn't do your job. I'd be in as
a year, I'd be giving and what or why? Now
the thing that worries me. Do you see these numbers yesterday?
The number of kids leaving school with no as a
NOO qualifications teny six hundred. We've got sixteen percent of
kids leaving school with not a single thing that will
help them for the rest of their lives. How's that?

Speaker 9 (53:16):
And that is why Erica Stanford is on a massive
mission to bring back basic literacy, uniracy, reading, writing maps
into our schools. She's rolling out those textbooks, she's rolling
out that structured curriculum. We're very serious about it. That's
why we're replacing MCA. We know that if you have
children leaving school without those basics, that is a fiscal

(53:37):
disaster and economic disaster. Frankly, it's a moral disaster. So
this idea that schools should be a pick apart adventure
where we just talk about well being all day, we've
rejected that. We're going back to the orthodoxy, back to
the basics that actually equip young New Zealanders for life.

Speaker 2 (53:51):
I hope it works. Nice to see you. Nicola Willis,
Finance Minister, seven forty five.

Speaker 1 (53:57):
The Mike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast iHeartRadio powered by
News Talks at b Jue Mike.

Speaker 2 (54:04):
Nicola was most explicit I've ever heard of Finance Minister
and what she thinks about theb I'm glad you picked
that up because I think I think there's an element
of desperation in there, because Christian is going to have
a job after twenty six no matter what happens.

Speaker 21 (54:15):
In the election.

Speaker 2 (54:15):
Nicola might not cars. Can I give you some reasonable news.
July sales new cars July sales match June, huge improvement
on the early part of the year. The early part
of the year was a dog like commercials up again,
which is sort of encouraging. Eleven than six hundred and
seventy one registrations. It's not what it was. What it
was was thirteen plus, but it's better than it has been.
So it's a twenty six percent uplift from May. Thank

(54:38):
the Good Lord for that. Electric vehicles did not share
the overall upward trend, no kidding that particular part as well,
and truly over ranger. It's the usual stuff, the high Lucks,
the ASX, the Celtos, the Triton, Yaddy dada, yadda triple A.
This morning, just while I got you the triple A,
the Australian Automobile Association has done the first independent test

(54:59):
in Australia. We know different than it is here of
EV's on what they claim and what they deliver in
terms of miles. You know when they say I tell
you what it goes four hundred and eighty kilometers in
a single charge and the reality is no, it doesn't.
So the Atto three BYDS claims four to eighty. It's
actually three sixty nine. According to the Triple A. The
Model three Tesla five point thirteen, they claim it's actually

(55:21):
four forty one. The EV six the key of the
five twenty eight claim is wrong, it's four eight four.
Closest they got actually was the Smart three. Do we
have the Smart three? I don't know we got the
Smart three in this country and it doesn't matter. Four
hundred and fifty five is what they claim. It came
in at four three to two. So that's yeah, that's
not the end of the world right now. The next
matter we need to deal with is I don't know

(55:42):
what cost of living crisis there is because everyone's in Europe.
And when keywis go to Europe as they have and
are at the moment over the northern summer, what we
do is then fall over and break stuff, and then
we claim on our insurance. So one we've got the
price of a ticket, two we've got the price of insurance,
and then we go in in you're ourselves so more
shortly ten to wait.

Speaker 1 (56:02):
The make Hosking breakfast with rainthrow b news.

Speaker 2 (56:05):
Tom's dead b's it away from it? Do you know
what we do when we go on holiday, Well, chances
are we making insurance claim new data record number of
claims from kiwis in Europe one cover in Z's paid
out two point seven million since May. What for while
slipping downstairs? Cracked teeth and broken backs? Roseanne Connley George,
co owner of Vincent George Travel Agents, as with us, Roseanne, morning, good.

Speaker 18 (56:26):
Morning, my hell do you so?

Speaker 2 (56:28):
I'm well? Thank you? Do you see it when you ring?
Barbara and she went to Sicily and do you go?
How'd to go? Barb? And Barb went, well, it fell over?
Do you hear that? A lot?

Speaker 21 (56:36):
We do get a number of claims for sure. I
think insurance is absolutely relevant in the travel industry right now,
especially with a lot of weather disrupts and a lot
of uncertainty around the world, world events, et cetera. We're
seeing more so though with luggage loss, luggage delays. There

(56:56):
is a really big one. And I think Europe is
a key spot because it's really the top sellar at
the moment. And I think the age group and demographic
that's heading through to Europe is that middle age too,
a bit older, demographics, so the claims do stack up. Unfortunately,
when people are traveling.

Speaker 2 (57:15):
What proceed did you people take out insurance?

Speaker 21 (57:18):
For us, we recommend everybody taking I know, but how
many actually really I would say ninety nine percent of
our travelers would Those that don't would be more so
those that are heading across the Tasman. But I am
not aware of ary men that do not take at
insurance when they're going on a larger journey.

Speaker 2 (57:38):
Are we seeing an increase in premiums if we're making
all these claims, the insurance company aren't in the business
of being nice. They'll be putting the bill up, won't.

Speaker 17 (57:45):
They On.

Speaker 21 (57:48):
The premiums are definitely rising, but where they are really
significant with preexisting medical conditions, those are becoming more relevant
now and so they are becoming something that's a lot
more efenses to be covering. But for that peace of mind,
we're finding that when there are claims, it really pays off.
But something that's really interesting, Mike is that we are

(58:10):
seeing a.

Speaker 18 (58:10):
Lot of claims before people go.

Speaker 21 (58:14):
So there's been Yeah, so people forget that travel insurance
actually taken out at the time you start paying money.
This is when it kicks in for unforeseen circumstance previous
to travel. So we're seeing a number of clients actually
claiming on heart attacks, strokes, cant diagnosises before they're leaving. Now,

(58:39):
whilst some of their particular travel arrangements can be refundable
and they may not be the large claims that we've
seen overseas for medical, they are still extremely relevant.

Speaker 2 (58:51):
What happens if you're a bit pissed and you fall
down the stairs? Is there a rule against that? I mean,
do they say, well, you shouldn't have had a drink,
it's your fault.

Speaker 21 (58:58):
I think it's circumstance. There are clauses in there that
does say that if there's intoxication or drug abuse and
things that are involved. I guess it comes down to
the claimant to be completely honest about the nature of
the claim and what's happened for that situation.

Speaker 2 (59:13):
Roseanne, always a pleasure in us to talk to you,
Roseanne Connolly George, who's the co owner of Vincent George
Travel Agents. We had our business is an increase, very
interesting article. I'll come back to it later if I
got time, but there's been a big increase. This is
my thing on ACC. At the moment, ACC isn't working
and there's been a big increase in worker is taking
weeks off so they have a thing, you know, like
more than a week. So if you're off for a

(59:34):
couple of days or whatever, and they pay you but
they don't really care. But the week away from work,
injury claims are up twenty five percent. So they're trying
to work out what's going on there. I mean, are
we actually more injured or are more of us being injured?
And when we injure ourselves, are the injuries worse than
they used to be or is somebody somewhere going, oh

(59:54):
the hell, you have a couple of weeks off and
somebody else will pay for it. So there's a bit
of that going on. Anyway. Well, come back to that
after thirty this morning, Rod Little. They got major tax
issues to talk about in Britain at the moment. I'll
give you some tax rate so that some research on
tax rates in Britain. You'll be amazed how heavily tax
they are. If you think it's bad here, it's even
worse there. Anyway, that's all still to come next. Kaylee Bell.

Speaker 1 (01:00:14):
Setting the agenda and talking the big issues, the My Asking,
Breakfast with A, Veda, Retirement, Communities, Life your Way, News, tog.

Speaker 2 (01:00:23):
Sad b unmy after the starting guys a seven past day.
I want to enjoy it is to welcome back to
the studio old mate, Kaylee Bell. It has been a year,
but then one of us has been having children, so
therefore has been a little bit busy. We have a
new single this morning, along with a new album at
the end of September and a five day New Zealand
tour as well. Kaylee Bell is with us. Good morning,

(01:00:46):
Good morning, Mike.

Speaker 15 (01:00:47):
How are you?

Speaker 2 (01:00:47):
I'm extremely well, so I have a confession, but before
I get to the confession, I need to ask you
the woman's weekly question, which is how's motherhood?

Speaker 15 (01:00:57):
It's amazing.

Speaker 22 (01:00:58):
I had a little six month old baby boy, James,
and he's already been to America, Australia, around this country
and yep, he's definitely just getting chucked in and thank
him for the.

Speaker 2 (01:01:11):
Right fantastic Has he cut his first track yet?

Speaker 15 (01:01:14):
Well, his favorite song at the moment is the Wiggles song.

Speaker 2 (01:01:17):
So they still hope you'll go through that? Is it
all you thought it would be?

Speaker 22 (01:01:22):
I really didn't actually have any idea what to expect,
I don't think, but I feel like we've been pretty
lucky with him. You know, he's an amazing sleeper and
things like that, which obviously make life a lot easier.

Speaker 15 (01:01:33):
But it's just so nice.

Speaker 22 (01:01:34):
I never thought i'd get the chance to be a mother,
and I love that I get to go and, you know,
play a show and I walk off the stage and
he's there now, or I get to come home.

Speaker 15 (01:01:41):
To him at the end of the day.

Speaker 22 (01:01:42):
And it's like in an industry that, as you probably
while are weird, there's a lot of you know, up
and downs and bs for what of a better word,
in this industry, it's so nice to have something so
grounding and just.

Speaker 15 (01:01:54):
Like just real.

Speaker 2 (01:01:56):
You know, it does change you, doesn't it. The logistics
of it all, are they difficult?

Speaker 15 (01:02:01):
They are very difficult. I feel like they've always been tricky.

Speaker 22 (01:02:05):
I mean, we travel with about twenty Pelicans on the
road and nine guys, and now we're just kind of
adding a baby in the mix with everything that that
also entails. So yeah, I'm lucky my partner Nick, he
obviously works with me as well, and we've always been organized.

Speaker 15 (01:02:21):
But I just feel like we're really organized.

Speaker 2 (01:02:23):
Now, that's good. Did the music stop for a while
while I was so you kept on.

Speaker 15 (01:02:28):
Being I actually worked right up.

Speaker 22 (01:02:30):
We're on the Cane Brown tour through Australia at about
thirty four weeks pregnant, and then basically had to stop
for flying reasons.

Speaker 15 (01:02:38):
I cut a record here in New Zealand, actually cut
my record.

Speaker 22 (01:02:41):
My producer came out from Nashville in December, so we
did that then, and then I had James at the
end of January and we were back on stage after
six weeks for CMC Rocks and I stood.

Speaker 2 (01:02:50):
On you and I watched that the other day. The
CMC Rocks thing. That's a that's a thing.

Speaker 15 (01:02:54):
It's a thing.

Speaker 22 (01:02:55):
It's it's just kind of exploded over the last i'd
say five to ten years. And we had a really
cool spot this year. We got to play like the
Sunset Spot, and Australian fans are really amazing, Like when
it comes to just getting in there and having a
good time and supporting, you know, artists from the sci.

Speaker 2 (01:03:10):
Showing me go back to those sort of things. You
feeling momentum, like you're getting bigger and better and all that.

Speaker 22 (01:03:14):
Absolutely, I think, Yeah, we've just really just been continuing
to grow this thing, and we put a lot of
emphasis on the live show. I think is really important
for us, and so we just want to keep getting
better and we keep getting these amazing opportunities, like we've
got a festival coming up with Shaboozi and Jelly Roll,
and the spots are getting better that we get to play,
which I think is a really.

Speaker 2 (01:03:35):
Good because they're they're the real deal.

Speaker 15 (01:03:37):
They are the real deal.

Speaker 2 (01:03:38):
Well, Caane Brown's the real deal. Oh my gosh, do
you hang out with him?

Speaker 15 (01:03:42):
We had the best time on tour with him.

Speaker 22 (01:03:43):
It was to me he's like one of those country
artists that can really cross over into He's got a
lot of pop sensibilities that it was amazing just to
actually like stand side stage and watch how they take
his songs from like what we hear and you know,
honest records and actually how they interpret that live. And
I think we took away a lot from his live

(01:04:05):
show and his band and stuff, like we still on
group chats and he.

Speaker 2 (01:04:10):
Is a slick act, which, speaking of which brings me
to my confession. Cowboy Up. Yes, I had heard it
and I didn't think it was you. I didn't Yes,
I didn't know it was you.

Speaker 15 (01:04:22):
Wow.

Speaker 2 (01:04:22):
I just thought it was a really good song. And
Katie said one day and she was playing at home
and she goes and Kylie Beller and I said.

Speaker 8 (01:04:29):
Is that?

Speaker 2 (01:04:29):
And I just joined the dots at that point. And
the reason I didn't think it was you is I
thought it was such a slick, professional Nashville International type song.

Speaker 15 (01:04:37):
Oh thank you match.

Speaker 2 (01:04:38):
It was a phenomenal song.

Speaker 15 (01:04:39):
That song had a journey.

Speaker 22 (01:04:41):
I actually wrote that in New Zealand and at prosong Cubs,
just over at Roundhead Studios, obviously one of the most
beautiful studios probably in the world.

Speaker 2 (01:04:49):
Actually Neil put his head around the corner and.

Speaker 15 (01:04:54):
Actually here's a line of like, thanks Neil, see letter
I wish.

Speaker 22 (01:04:58):
But I wrote that song and like March and I
tease that song on TikTok and it kind of exploded.
But then I was like, like, I actually need to
have the song produced. And it took me about nine
months to find the person and I actually land with
Travis Heidelman and Nashville who's been doing all the Dasher stuff.
So it's very nice that you say that, because I
feel like I love the Dasher stuff.

Speaker 2 (01:05:18):
It doesn't it? But you know what I'm saying, it's
it is very international. Do you think about Kane Brown
and what he does in a play to males? It's
got the same yeah about it, doesn't it?

Speaker 6 (01:05:29):
Yeah?

Speaker 22 (01:05:30):
And that's I guess that's why we're kind of basing
a whole tour around it now. It's one of those
songs that, like, I think people have just really quickly resonated,
And as soon as we started playing it live in
the set, it was like it felt like one of
those songs that will be in the set for a
long time. So it's always lovely when you get those
songs because they're few and far between.

Speaker 2 (01:05:46):
It's going to go for miles that song. By the way,
what are you going to play for us after the break?

Speaker 15 (01:05:49):
I've got a brand new single out at the moment
called The Thing About Us?

Speaker 2 (01:05:52):
Okay, is it any good?

Speaker 8 (01:05:54):
No?

Speaker 2 (01:05:55):
Because I'm just enjoying talking to you, That's all I'm
just trying to.

Speaker 15 (01:05:58):
We know'd much rather too singer a chat?

Speaker 2 (01:06:01):
All right, Okay, listen, we'll get you this singing about
but thirteen thirteen past eight.

Speaker 1 (01:06:05):
The Mic Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iheartradiow by
News Talk.

Speaker 2 (01:06:10):
Zippy News Talks quarter past date. Kaylee Bell's in the studio.
So I got it right, didn't I. So we've got
the new single this morning.

Speaker 15 (01:06:17):
Correct.

Speaker 2 (01:06:17):
You've got how many singles out from the forthcoming album?

Speaker 15 (01:06:19):
We've got four singles out and there's four more to
come on the record.

Speaker 2 (01:06:23):
Okay, very good. And the album's out next month September
twenty six, and the tours coming in the latter part
of the Let me give the dates on that shortly,
because in the meantime we need to hear.

Speaker 15 (01:06:33):
The new single, the new single which is called what
that's called the Thing about Us?

Speaker 6 (01:06:37):
Okay, it's a sleepin on a slowdy so our home,
take a long way to get about the hustle and
the fair sing Who's in track of time with you?
It's the magic of the moment. It's said that would

(01:07:00):
and it's glow it here we go together and we
know it. Everything is better now, baby. That's the thing
about sunshine kissing on my shoulder on a long jobs.
See the way you're looking over your ryes reminding me
something good.

Speaker 2 (01:07:18):
Baby.

Speaker 15 (01:07:18):
That's the thing.

Speaker 6 (01:07:19):
About those guy's pading like your blood jeans feels right
wrapped up in.

Speaker 15 (01:07:24):
Your rip teeth. We know this is a forevery kind
of love.

Speaker 2 (01:07:29):
Baby.

Speaker 6 (01:07:30):
That's the thing about us. Baby, that's the thing about us,
Cause you're reading my mind when I lost it. You
keep me on track when I'm off it. What everybody's
looking for, we got it. The sweetest thing I ever found. Baby.

Speaker 15 (01:07:54):
That's the thing about.

Speaker 6 (01:07:55):
Sunshine kissing on my shoulder on a long jobs. See
the way you're looking over who rides reminding me of
something good. Baby, that's the thing about loose Guy's fading
like your blue jeans feels right wrapped up in your
rip tea.

Speaker 10 (01:08:13):
We know this is a.

Speaker 15 (01:08:15):
Forever kind of love.

Speaker 2 (01:08:17):
Baby.

Speaker 15 (01:08:17):
That's a thing about us.

Speaker 6 (01:08:22):
Yeah, Baby, that's the thing about us, because we're falling
in deep at the right place, at the right time.
Can't believe I'm the one that's calling you mine. The
thing about real love, you really gotta show up and

(01:08:42):
a hard times think is never getting better. Long nights,
Thanking God that we're together, we'll say we know we
got something good. Maybe that's the thing about loose guys. Yeah,
they're gonna come and go. Real life ain't a He's
an easy road the Wena.

Speaker 15 (01:09:01):
This is a forever can off.

Speaker 6 (01:09:04):
Baby.

Speaker 15 (01:09:04):
That's a thing about us.

Speaker 6 (01:09:08):
Oh yeah, baby, that's a thing about us. Oh yeah, baby,
that's a thing. A Bell.

Speaker 2 (01:09:19):
Instant reviews. Gosh, Mike, she has a lovely voice. Gosh,
darn I love Kaylee Bel Sadega. Thank they're lapping you up.
So you got the single, you got the album, You're
around the country. I'll give the dates in just a
couple of moments, and next time you bring jameson.

Speaker 15 (01:09:33):
Absolutely and we'll have you willing to do some babies.

Speaker 2 (01:09:35):
We'll have a little sing along or a campfire or whatever.
It's lovely to see you, lovely to see you, and
we'll get you in again soon. Kaylee Bell. It is
nineteen past eight.

Speaker 1 (01:09:43):
The Lighthosking Breakfast with Bailey's real estate news talks.

Speaker 2 (01:09:47):
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(01:10:07):
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(01:10:49):
Mike what sort of guitar was she playing, Lindsey, I
want to say a Martin, but I wasn't paying enough attention.
It wasn't a Gibson because I do. I always look.
I bore them witless everyone who brings a guitar, and
I'm fascinated by guitars, and I'm fact funny enough. I
went to a house the other day and they had
a collection of guitars, old guitars, like a lot of them,

(01:11:11):
and I sort of spent more time looking at the
guitars than I did the house itself, because the house
was potentially for sale. Mike has come with the guitars
or no where you see a lot of stuff can
come with the house.

Speaker 15 (01:11:20):
It's all up for negotiation.

Speaker 2 (01:11:22):
Isn't it all up for negotiation? That's exactly right. How
hard would it be for Nicola to give big incentives
for ld to come and work with the warehouse? Who
went to the grocery market? The question? It's not a
bad question, Michelle in the sense that I don't know
what else she can do. I'm Nikola and I are
butting heads a little bit about her fascination with the supermarkets.
I don't believe there's the scandal. She thinks there is

(01:11:43):
the Commerce Commission. Broadly thinking speaking, I think her on
her site, but she hasn't pulled any sort of trigger.
What she has done so far is deregulate a bunch
of stuff, or at least promise to deregulate a bunch
of stuff. So if Eldie wants to come to the
country and they want to buy bunches of land and
they want to build bunches of shops, they can go
to what I understand to be sort of a clearing house,

(01:12:05):
a government clearing house, and they'll take all those boxes
at once. You go, hello, I'm from Aldi. I want
to do a whole bunch of stuff around the country
and be a big supermarket competitor. They'll go, welcome to
New Zealand. Here's the paperwork. It's already filled out. Just
sign here, and all the regulations and stuff have been
taken care of so share. It's not like she hasn't
been trying to get people on board. But here's where
we go back to the theory versus reality. It's not

(01:12:27):
like the world hasn't seen New Zealand. You know this Ikea.
I'm reading yesterday what was it called yesterday? In Ikea,
they're bringing the bookshelf, the Billy Bob bookshelf, or whatever
the hell that is. As you're supposed to know what
that is. The point being ike has been coming to
this country and has been given the most astonishing amount
of media coverage for something that hasn't opened. They announced

(01:12:50):
they were coming here first in nineteen twelve and the
Herald were all over it and they've been running along
with their atmosphere and clickbait warnings with the weather. They've
been running stories on Ikea for every year since then
and they're still not open. And here's the point, ELDI
know New Zealand, they know where it is. They've got
a map, they've had a look at it, they've gone.
I wonder if there's a gap for us in the market.

(01:13:11):
I wonder if we couldn't make an impression. I wonder
if we, if we spent a bit of money, did
a bit of marketing, whether we couldn't grab a bit
of market share the same way. Do you reckon the
warehouse has done that? I think they probably have. Do
you think the warehouse have got some money the ability
to scale up, the ability to have a brand in
the marketplace that you understand already? Yes, yes, yes, and yes,
so us answer me this, Why aren't therefore so scale supermarket?

(01:13:35):
Could it possibly be that there just isn't enough room
in the market to make the same way there isn't
enough room in the market for two airlines. Where we
like two airlines, yes, would we like three or four
or five airlines?

Speaker 20 (01:13:47):
Yes?

Speaker 2 (01:13:47):
Are we going to get them? No, we're not. So
theory intersecting with the wonderful world of reality snap By
the way, are you into Snapchat? I'm not on any
social media. I just that's why I find this thing
so fascinating. Of all the text that's operating around the
world at the moment, snap are a disaster. Their revenue
is one point three billion, sales grew nine percent, so
they're making money. No, so given that, why would they

(01:14:10):
Are they ever going to make any money? How many
users are there in the whole world for Snapchat? You
know when people talk about snapyke saw them on Snapchat?
How many people in the whole world are on Snapchat? Answer?
Four hundred and sixty nine million, which means what's that
as a percentage of the population? Five So ninety five
percent of the world isn't on Snapchat. So next time
you hear somebody going on the seal one on the Snapchat,

(01:14:31):
no one's on Snapchat. Don't worry about it, just say no.
One's on snapchat Mate, I've got the facts. I heard
it on the Mike Hosking Breakfast Rod the Asylum deal.
It's underway, one in and one out, the argument being
that the Breads get the good one and the French
get the bad one. What could possibly go wrong? Rod

(01:14:54):
is next.

Speaker 5 (01:15:01):
For the.

Speaker 1 (01:15:17):
Breakfast show, Kiwi's trust to stay in the know the
mic hosting Breakfast with Rainthrover leading by example news togs
dead Be.

Speaker 2 (01:15:25):
You're one hundred percent correct around the prices we pay
for groceries, fuel airlines. The biggest problem for kiwis is
we still pay a higher price when of cheaper options available.
Lazy or loyal, I don't know that's true. I mean,
most people I think have a reasonable crack at a bargain,
don't they. Recently, Mike, I wandered around the grocery section
of the warehouse. I could only find one item that
I buy that was cheaper than the supermarket, so that

(01:15:46):
that probably proves my point. I mean, more doesn't mean
a better deal all the time. And I think back
to Nikola Willison a great example of how Costco were
running butter at whatever dollars it was at the time,
but it was a lost leader. They we're actually losing
money and that happens in supermarkets all the time. So
as much as we would like for stuff to happen,
it doesn't always necessarily mean that it will.

Speaker 13 (01:16:07):
Twenty three to nine International correspondence with Insneye Insurance Peace
of Mind for New Zealand Business.

Speaker 3 (01:16:15):
One little morning to you, Good morning to you, mate.

Speaker 2 (01:16:18):
Is someone at the border? Is someone at the border
going Now? That's one in, so well, now where's the
one going out? How's that working for you?

Speaker 3 (01:16:25):
That's gonna work? Tough dandy Mike. If you remember, the
original plan to stop illegal migrants coming to the country
was to smash the gangs and take kept saying we're
going to smash the gangs. The gangs having been not
smashed in any possible interpretation of the word, have continued

(01:16:47):
and indeed twenty five thousand people have come over from
Calais this year, which is the highest ever. So the
new deal and this really betters belief it's a one
even one hour deal with France. France will we will
send an illegal asylum seeker back to fan back to

(01:17:07):
France and they will send over someone who's filled in
all their forms right and has a right to a here.
I don't see how that reduces the number for a start.
But the second thing is, as I said, twenty five
thousand people come over, how many does the government think
that they might be able to get sent to France?

(01:17:29):
Fifty it's the answer to that, fifty. So whether it's
active as a deterrent, you know, so an asylum seeker
opening talible think, goodness me, I don't think I've got
to go to Britain because I only stand a ninety
nine point eight chance of getting in.

Speaker 2 (01:17:48):
And exactly you've got to remember that they did, of
course fill out their paperwork, and all of their problems
are honest and real, and they straight up and down citizens.

Speaker 17 (01:17:56):
I just.

Speaker 2 (01:18:01):
Was sitting in the room thinking about did none of
them honestly think that this would turn out to be
the laughing stock that it is.

Speaker 3 (01:18:08):
Well, you see, it hasn't been done to stop the gangs.
It's been done performatively in order to show the British public.
And there was an opinion poll of about immigration earlier
this week which was very very hard lines for the
first time for a number of years that they're doing
something about immigration, but of course they're not. You know, furthermore,

(01:18:30):
we're paying for it all. I think this is because
Sakia has the negotiatory skills of a counter loop. He's
faced with mackerel. So it's it is a laughing stock.
I cannot possibly see how this could help you, But

(01:18:52):
I suspect that there will be a great, great parades
through the streets when the first guy is sent back
to France. Look, we've done it.

Speaker 20 (01:19:00):
You know.

Speaker 2 (01:19:03):
China's new embassy. It's always angsty, isn't it. How many wires,
how many cables, how many satellites, how much spying, all
that sort of stuff. It's it's tuned a bit angsty.

Speaker 3 (01:19:11):
It's getting a bit nasty. Trump warned us formed to
form the British government against letting China redevelop its embassy.
And it's what it's building is a is a vast
mega embassy in the middle of London. And and he
warned it, and he said, don't don't don't let them
do that. Don't let them do that. Janshao ping H

(01:19:34):
a canvas. Starma for a long time persuaded persuade rather
than persuaded. Starma that it was something which had to
be done, that it was very important. Starma went along
with it. Now we've seen the blueprints and there are
vast aerias of it in the basement which have been
blocked out in gray, redacted for security reasons. I mean

(01:19:58):
all this well, I sometimes believe we're living in a
fiction like so and the raiment. A deputy PM has
stepped in and to pass the Chinese very politely, why
all these airs blocked off?

Speaker 21 (01:20:13):
But what do you do?

Speaker 3 (01:20:14):
We give them and Soham and I don't know how
this will resolve itself made I've been.

Speaker 2 (01:20:19):
Looking just while I've got you here. Forty one point
two billion is the National Institute of Economic Research. They
were giving us numbers yesterday. I was reading about these numbers.
So the government is short. So this is all back
to the text rise and text rises. Given the state
that the government's books are in, and given how little
time they've been in government, how is it possible they
promise not to increase texas when they're clearly, clearly clearly

(01:20:43):
going to increase taxes.

Speaker 3 (01:20:44):
Well, of course it will come down to nomenclature and
whether a tax is a tax or some of them
kind of tariff, but of course they're going to increase taxes.
I hope you wouldn't bring this subject up because it
just sends me into a spiral of depression and gloom mote.
It gets worse and worse by the month, and there's

(01:21:07):
no sign of economic growth because of course Reeves a
chancellor shut that off as soon as you put up
national insurance, so we can't even buy our way out
of this. It's it's going to hit I think the
middle classes particularly very very hard. Indeed, and given that
the middle classes are now the principal source of folks

(01:21:27):
for the Labor Party, it doesn't augur very well for
twenty twenty nine.

Speaker 2 (01:21:31):
Right Rod talks, Sir, you have a good week in
Rod Little and Britain. Just let me bring you up
to speed. In fact, I'll do it in just a
couple of moments, because the text rights in Britain are fascinating.
But this guy Miller who wrote this report, and you've
got to remember it, recommended a moderate in his report,
a moderate but sustained increase in taxes. Now, when she
became chancellor, Reeve set out two rules for government borrowing.

(01:21:52):
Two rules. First rule, day to day spending would be
paid for within revenue, so at forty one point two
billion hasn't quite worked. Borrowing can only be for investments.
Second rule, debt must be falling as a share of
national income by the end of a five year period.
She's repeated this over and over again as being quote
unquote non negotiable. Originally promised not to raise taxes further,

(01:22:16):
but recently refused to rule it out, and now Millard
says Reeves will need to either raise taxes or reduce
spending or both in the October budget if she is
to meet her fiscal rules. So if she put the
taxes up to what more in a moment sixteen too.

Speaker 1 (01:22:30):
The Mike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talks that be.

Speaker 2 (01:22:38):
It is thirteen minutes away from nine. So Rachel Reeves
is she's going to increase the taxes. They do have
and I've always favored this personally, But they have what
we don't have there, which is zero tax rate for
the early earners. So in other words, up to twelve
and a half pounds twelve seven hundred and fifty de
bee precise, there's no tax paid, and will you pay
tax on your very first dollar, which our youngest I mean,

(01:22:59):
all that kids have gone through it. Obviously, it's amazing
to have kids who then go out noon for the
first time and they're just astonished that all the money
that they've just earned and worked hard for suddenly go
somewhere else, And they ask you the question in the
most innocent possible way, where's it gone? And why is
there so much being taken off me? And you mean
I have to pay off the student exactly right. It's

(01:23:19):
amazing to deal with anyway. So they've got zero up
to twelve seven hundred and fifty. Then you go to
twenty percent of YEO between twelve seven and fifty thousand dollars,
so that might be I mean, it might be a
little bit better than us between fifty though and one
hundred and twenty five year at forty so immediately you're
well beyond our very highest. We've got thirty nine at
one eighty, of course, and thirty three at whatever it

(01:23:41):
is up to you from seventy or eighty or whatever
it is now to a one eighty and at one
twenty five and above you're paying forty five p So
the high income earner for example, in Britain on one
twenty five and above is paying forty five plus. Of
course you got VAT at twenty percent, so you're paying
sixty five percent of everything you earn back to Rachel Reeves.
And she's got the temerity to come to you and say, gout,

(01:24:05):
I have some moll please. Speaking of which, this came
out of Fox. And this is why Trump's in trouble.
Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's. The economy is on
the precipice us. The economy is on the precipice of recession.
Consumer spending's flat line, construction of manufacturing and contracting, employment
is set to fall, and with inflation on the rise,
it is tough for the Fed to come to the rescue.

(01:24:26):
They've got, in a way what we've got, which is
all of the problems, and the Fed can't help them,
and so they haven't cut yet so they can cut.
So I don't know how they're going to handle it.
The defining promise another This is another piece of commentary
this morning. The defining promise of Donald Trump's twenty four
campaign was lower costs. On day one, he broke it.
The first six months ever, higher prices. Republicans in Congress

(01:24:47):
would be wise to remember that voters are never quicker
to fire elected officials than when they break a core promise.
And it is this Congress who will be on the
ballot next year, not Donald Trump. Good point. The campaign
trail promise sounded too good to be true because basically
they were ten away from nine.

Speaker 1 (01:25:06):
The Mike Hosking Breakfast with a Vida Retirement. Communities News
togs had been just.

Speaker 2 (01:25:11):
Reading another text. I won't put it on here, but
it's about the obsupermarket suppliers in the March and stuff
like that. But it suddenly triggered my memory. I got
a very good letter yesterday from somebody who they didn't
identify themselves as being in, but they were clearly in
the wine industry when we talked about it yesterday. Grapes
left on the vine, international marketing, alcohol interest falling internationally,

(01:25:32):
all that stuff. Anyway, they made a point and I
thought it was not a bad one. Single desks so
Kiwi fruit Fonterra that sort of thing. We sort of
got a single desk operation in this country where we
take what we produce and we go out to the
world in a singular voice and go here we are
New Zealand Inc. And the point was made that the
wine industry doesn't do that. There was a thing called
Family of twelve. I'm assuming they still exist, but twelve

(01:25:52):
really top end producers were part of what they call
the Family of twelve and they were going to market
themselves to the world. And this happened on an arm
make them ten, fifteen years ago, whatever it was, and
so they were going to go out with a sort
of a singular voice and sell themselves to the world.
But it wasn't a bad point because they were suggesting
each and every producer who sends their wine overseas is

(01:26:13):
basically their own marketing department, as opposed to having something
a little more cohesive than perhaps we do at the moment. Mike,
you missed national insurance in the UK and another on
avoidable tax. Yeah, there'll be lots of other bits and
pieces as well. What I'm saying is they're an exceedingly
highly taxed country and how she's going to sell even
more taxes beyond me. Mike, the question we should talk

(01:26:33):
about this more tomorrow because I don't think I only
think anyone's realized how bad this is The question about
students leaving with no qualifications needs to be how many
of this group attended school regularly? Most likely have that
that's true the quality of the curriculum and teachers. And
I would have raised us with Nicola if I had time,
but I didn't. But your point is very good. The
quality curriculum, teachers, etc. Will make no difference if the

(01:26:55):
kids are not at school. Attendance is so bad in
this country the numbers leaving with no qualify ocasion is
going to get much worse. I fear you are right.
And what I would have raised with and Nicola, And
this is what it's worth talking about it more tomorrow.
Is this whole new Erica Stanford, I'm saving the world.
Curriculum thing is fine for people who are one at
school and two engaged in school. So if you're going

(01:27:18):
to get a B instead of a merit or whatever
the hell it is, that's fine, but you've got to
be engaged at that level. If you're leaving school with
no qualifications whatsoever, you're not engaged, and suddenly having a
compulsory English and a compulsory maths and some science, none
of that's going to change your life. Something more profound
has to happen than that, because when you've got sixteen

(01:27:38):
percent of kids leaving with literally nothing into an economy
that has literally nothing to offer them, how do you
think that's going to end? Other than non welfare? Five
to nine.

Speaker 1 (01:27:50):
Trending now with chemist ware House, great savings every day.

Speaker 2 (01:27:58):
Play it, Glenn.

Speaker 14 (01:28:00):
I've had to figure away to survive since you said
it's over, told me good by.

Speaker 2 (01:28:13):
Happy days.

Speaker 6 (01:28:15):
I just care.

Speaker 2 (01:28:17):
Maybe I got a whole bunch of stuff to tell you,
but do you need to hear it? She's an icon
if you miss this as the Guinness Book of Records
Icon status because she holds eleven records eleven most consecutive
decades with the top ten album on the Billboard Country Chart,
seven decades with rock Star, longest spand of number one
hits in the US Top Country Oldam's Chart, forty six years,

(01:28:37):
one hundred ninety six days, forty six years, one hundred
and ninety seven days, most decades on the top twenty
on the Country charts with Please Please Please seven decades,
seven decades. How's that possible?

Speaker 6 (01:28:52):
And idle.

Speaker 2 (01:28:54):
First country singer to be nominated for the Egos is
Green and Us. She joins the likes of Elton John
and Paul McCartney and into lower Taylor Swift. How she
got there so quickly, I don't know. I mean, Taylor
Swift hasn't been around for seventy years. She went Instagram

(01:29:18):
official the other day because she was on holiday and
has been on the off season with Travis. And they
never post about themselves. Other people post for them and
it's all tabloid stuff. But they posted about themselves for
the first time, and Katie was reading me to reaction
as we drove to the country last weekend and went,
I can't remember what they said on Instagram, things like

(01:29:39):
they always say like oh my god, or I've been
here for this or I'm dying for this or whatever
the other rubbish they do on Instagram. But as I
told you, really was no non Instagram's didn't really matter.
And this is probably her greatest song and I don't
even know it was a big hit. But anyway, I
wish you the very best of days. Indeed, Happy Day, Sweez.

Speaker 4 (01:30:03):
Blue.

Speaker 1 (01:30:10):
For more from The Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to
News Talks at b from six am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio.

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