Full Show Podcast: 07 July 2025

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
New Zealand's home for trusted news and views.

Speaker 2 (00:03):
Heather duper c Allen on the Mike asking breakfast with
al Vida, Retirement, Communities, Life Your Way, News, Togs, Dead.

Speaker 3 (00:10):
Be morning and welcome to you. Coming up on the show.
We're into phase two of the COVID inquiry and the
public stuff is starting. We're going to check him with
the chair there. We've got a former judge on the
government considering tying judge's hands even further with the minimum sentences.
We've got Deputy Prime Minister David Seymour and for Chris Luxon,

(00:31):
and of course the commentary box is always on a Monday.
We'll talk that tighter than expected test after eight.

Speaker 1 (00:36):
Heather duper Celo.

Speaker 4 (00:37):
Well, I reckon.

Speaker 3 (00:38):
Local government's got a bit of a job on its hands, isn't.
It turns out they want to fight that rates cap
idea which the government seems to have taken a bit
of a liking to. Over the weekend, the Taxpayers Union
got its hands on and released an internal document which
shows that local government is planning to fight back against
that to try to stop the rates cap. Now, what
they're planning to do is launch a nationwide campaign. They say,

(00:59):
unless they do that, the government is likely to introduce
this rates cap. But they reckon they can stop it.
They've stopped an idea like this before they stop it
in two thousand and nine, and South Australia managed to
stop it as well. And all it takes, they reckon,
is to step up a gear, be louder and boost
public trust and confidence in local government to convince you
and I that councils are better than central government at

(01:20):
making rates decisions. Well, good luck to them on that,
because that I think is their problem. I don't know
that they can boost public trust and confidence in local
government and convince her so they're better, I reckon. Public
confidence in local government has got to be at its
lowest EBB in ages, don't you think No. I don't
know how they get it back, especially when you've got
Tory and Wellington spending two point three million on disco

(01:40):
toilets and spending the last few months as mayor so
distracted that she's launching an online campaign against the Deputy
Prime Minister. When you've got Auckland Council busted waving through
co governance in the White Tarckety Ranges. Mayor of all
can completely unaware it's happening. And when you've got councils
like Kluther still pumping up rates by sixteen percent after
all of the increases we've already seen and complained about,

(02:01):
they've got an uphill battle. But here's a tip for them.
Start with the rates. If what you want to stop
is a rates cap, start with the rates. Cap the rates.
If you want to win this battle against central government,
first step, stop putting uprates.

Speaker 1 (02:15):
News of the world in ninety seconds.

Speaker 3 (02:18):
We as the death toll continues to climb. In Texas,
the local county judges defending the storm warning system.

Speaker 5 (02:23):
If your cell phone is in that area, you get
an alert. It's not like Warren Central Texas, where you
have to sign up for it. Some people get it,
maybe some people don't. This is that is a very
robust system, and my understanding is that the National Weather
Service gave people many warnings.

Speaker 3 (02:36):
This woman saw some of the tragedy unfold.

Speaker 6 (02:37):
In order to save his family, he broke a window
to get him out, and while he was doing that,
he cut off an artery and his arm. He got
his family to safety, but unfortunately he bled to death.

Speaker 3 (02:51):
Well, this guy managed to actually save a woman.

Speaker 7 (02:53):
Hey, you know, I see you. We're going to get you.
You know, hang on, We're going to get you out
of that tree. It's going to be all right. She
just wanted to hug me. That's all she wanted to
do was please give me a big hurg.

Speaker 3 (03:07):
Pope Leo has offered his condolences.

Speaker 8 (03:10):
I would like to express sincere condolences to all the
families who have lost loved ones.

Speaker 9 (03:17):
We pray for them.

Speaker 3 (03:19):
Over in the UK, former Labor leader Lord Neil Kinnock
is urging Rachel Reeves to bring in a wealth tax.

Speaker 10 (03:25):
This is a country which is very substantially fed up
with the fact that whatever happens in the world, whatever
happens in the UK, the same interests come out on top.

Speaker 3 (03:36):
And well, you don't need me to tell you what
the Tories think about that.

Speaker 11 (03:39):
We've already had far too many taxes on wealth creation.

Speaker 12 (03:43):
You look at National Insurance twenty.

Speaker 2 (03:44):
Five billion pound bird and carry by.

Speaker 8 (03:47):
Business and that's a substantial part of the reason why
the economy has not been growing in the way that
it should.

Speaker 3 (03:52):
And finally, the Czech Republic. The Czech Republic's got a
great idea. It's promoting what they call beer diplomacy. Now
the country is known as the world's top beer tourist destination,
and part of that is inviting people to the country
into breweries to learn how to drink properly. Because you
don't know, you need to be taught. So the government
has a specific beer department and it's coming up with

(04:13):
new programs to bring in tourists and share their beer
to the world. When they had to ask David seymore
more about a beer department later in the show, that
is used the world in ninety seconds. Can I spart
just while we're on the subject of celebrations, Happy birthdays
to the Dalai Lama ninety had a bit of a
get together. Got thousands of Buddhists there, got Richard Gear there.

(04:34):
I mean, what is a party without Richard Gear, got
some Indian ministers, got some divitees. It was thousands and
thousands of people turned up at Dalai Lama's ninetieth. He
came out, he made an effort, came out in the
traditional robes, flowing yellow rap, smiling, walking with the aid
of a couple of monks. Now, just before you think
that walking with a couple of with the aid of
a couple of month monks means that the man's not

(04:55):
up to it. He says, don't worry about it. Great
physical condition, going to live for another forty years, which
is two one hundred and thirty by the way, if
you can't do your maths, and that, by the way,
is twenty years longer than he told us last time.
So he is going great. Guns six twelve.

Speaker 2 (05:12):
The Mike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
My News Talks.

Speaker 3 (05:18):
Ep Hey over in Texas. Looks like still eleven kids
are missing from that Christian summer camp. We're gonna have
chat to Richard Arnold about it. He's with us obviously
after half past right now it's called to past six.
Andrew callahof JMI Wealth is with us. Andrew, Hello morning, Heather. Right,
you've got a local company or actually a few local

(05:38):
company updates for us. Hit us with it.

Speaker 9 (05:40):
Yeah, that's right.

Speaker 8 (05:41):
So the influential US market they took the day off
on Friday, so no read from them, but yeah, have
a couple of local companies provided updates on Friday. And
what I thought was interesting about these when in both
of these announcements we saw sort of reference to US
those reverberations of much broader global problems. You get first
up tourism Hold Now they've been in the news recently.

(06:02):
They're the target of a takeover or potentially takes another
list of company over the inter andets, which is a
continuation of a.

Speaker 9 (06:08):
Fairly disturbing trend.

Speaker 8 (06:09):
But when heather, when these companies get under these takeovers,
it can create some uncertainty within the company. So while
it's going on, the company has to sort of keep
the wheels turning. Now they release an update to their
forecast full year results on Friday. They're our set profit
at the lower end of the previous guidance, so that's
not a positive announcement. Still pressure on their earnings in

(06:29):
the near term that you've got these challenges impacting global
RV sales and to a lesser extent, also the specific
USA market, So they have to recycle the RVs that
they hire out. So they hire them out, then they
sell them. If you can't sell them, you can't recycle
the cash. Their manufacturing divisions in Australia and New Zealand
also experiencing year on year earnings decline.

Speaker 9 (06:50):
So that's all the bad news.

Speaker 8 (06:51):
The good news is that forward rentals are much better.
We like to see this double digit percentage growth and
their forward rental revenues in all markets except the US,
and actually if we look at New Zealand and Australia,
this is particularly good. Ford rental revenue is about twenty
five percent higher than last year.

Speaker 9 (07:08):
But here's the interesting bit, Heather.

Speaker 8 (07:10):
Following that infamous sort of liberation Day, the second of
April in the US, the announcement of the initial tariffs,
their US forward rental bookings declined forty to fifty percent.
They have bounced back after that, but and I talked
to Mike before about the impact that President Trump is
having on inbound tourism into the US, and I think
Fords two days ago said the could be as much

(07:32):
as a twenty nine billion dollar turnaround and expected tourism
revenue because basically people.

Speaker 9 (07:37):
Aren't going to the US.

Speaker 8 (07:38):
But because of that, THHL might need to because the
uncertainty around that, THL might need to write down the
asset value of the good will that they have on
their balance share of the US business. So share bryce
jumped recently following news of the takeover, went from dollar
forty tround to twenty fell four cents back on Friday.

Speaker 9 (07:56):
But Heather, you have the red bands, You've got the
red bands.

Speaker 3 (08:00):
I don't think. What do you think I need the
red for?

Speaker 9 (08:02):
Well, I don't know.

Speaker 1 (08:05):
But you go away.

Speaker 8 (08:06):
You're not always in all anyway, It's scaler Up, another
one of the companies potentially in the firing line of
the impact of the reciprocal tariffs. Now, the share price
fell after the announcement those tariffs in early April, but shareholders,
I think will be cheering the fact that the share
price has fully recovered. The companies say it could work
around the introduction of tariffs. Now they manufacture and export

(08:26):
from China, Vietnam, and New Zealand.

Speaker 9 (08:29):
To the US. They gave an update on Friday.

Speaker 8 (08:32):
Now, thirty five percent of their sales revenues generated by
sales in the US, and eighty five percent of that
revenue comes from goods manufacturing in those three countries. Now,
they've already reported that tariffs wouldn't materially impact their twenty
twenty five finance year results.

Speaker 9 (08:47):
They're now saying and confirm that.

Speaker 8 (08:49):
They've made really good progress mitigating the tariff impact and
now looking further ahead. So You've got the Vietnam tariffs.
They were confirmed a couple of days ago. That's twenty
percent into the US. We assume that New Zealand gets
set at ten percent, China based tariff at thirty percent. Now,
the thing I find interesting about this head that these developments,
this would be going on all over the world. It's
not just scale global businesses working out how to deal

(09:12):
with this reset and global trade order. Scale I think
they can offset the impact on future earnings with sales grets, pricing, costing,
and manufacturing initiatives. Companies all over the world pulling those leavers.
Share price relatively stable.

Speaker 9 (09:25):
So good news announcement from Scale up.

Speaker 3 (09:27):
Yeah nice, Okay. Obviously for US, big economic news this
week is going to be what the Reserve Bank does
with the OCI. Are you picking no change?

Speaker 9 (09:34):
Yeah, no change.

Speaker 8 (09:35):
We'll talk about that a bit more because I think
the situation got a little bit more interesting with the
resilease of the QS. The quarterly survey Business Opinion from
ends at IYA. But probably no change. We've also got
migration numbers later this week. They've been falling. You've got
the PMI on Friday, but July the ninth, hea the
d day for tariffs. I think they'll dominate proceedings this week,

(09:56):
so no doubt. We will talk about that later on
this week.

Speaker 3 (09:59):
Absolutely, look yourself, mate, we'll talk to you then. Andrew
calliherb JMI wealth. Oh, before I let you go, Andrew,
numbers please, Oh.

Speaker 8 (10:06):
We can do the numbers, Heather, So good week, We
can do the numbers. The Dow Jones these A numbers
from Thursday. It was up three percent forty four thousand,
eight hundred and twenty eight. The S and P five
hundred was up to point eight three percent sixty two
seven nine, and the Nasdak gained over one percent twenty thousand,
six hundred and one.

Speaker 9 (10:23):
The forty one hundred barely changed eight eight twenty two.

Speaker 8 (10:26):
The Nika also up small twenty five points three nine
eight one oh the clothes there Shanghai composite three four
seven two upper point three percent. The OSSI has had
a quiet down on Friday, up seven points eighty six
oh two.

Speaker 9 (10:38):
The close there the ins nex fifty game just under.

Speaker 8 (10:41):
Half a percent sixty two points twelve thousand, seven hundred
and sixty six. We're starting the week with the Kiwi
dollar at point six oh four nine against the US
point nine two one four ossiero point five one three
five against the Euro point four four two oh pounds
eighty seven point two eight Japanese yen gold three thousand,
three hundred and thirty seven dollars and breakthrough start in

(11:01):
the week sixty eight dollars and thirty cents.

Speaker 3 (11:04):
Good on you, mate, Thank you very much more more
Andrew than I was expecting. Andrew kallaher joymi wealth. And
we'll talk to you in a couple of days again. Yeah,
we're gonna you know what, I'm just gonna make a
prediction right now. This is gonna be a lot more
of that this show, because we are we are operating
on a sleep deficit. No one's gonna feel sorry for me.
I don't expect you to. I'll explain to you what
happened later on here. The Sam Broughton Broughton, head of

(11:26):
Local Government New zeal Zealand and also the mayor of
the Selwyn District, put our rates up by fifteen percent
last year. Now his proposing rates going up fourteen percent
this year. Well, there you go, Mike, there's your problem.
And if Sam is doing it, then the rest of
them are doing it. Too, and they don't see the problem,
do they. Six twenty one.

Speaker 2 (11:42):
Theve Mike Hosking Breakfast, a full show podcast on iHeartRadio
powered by News Talks at Me.

Speaker 3 (11:49):
Hey, I know Mike likes to do the Democracy Watch
for you, so I thought I'll do it in his
absence so that he doesn't have any holes to fill
when he comes back. And U gander, this is an
interesting one. This is your Wheym Savenni. You'll know that name,
most likely because the guy has been in power most
of your life since nineteen eighty six. When he sees
power as a rebel leader, he's not stopping. He's reached

(12:09):
the prime ripe old age of eighty, but he's not
going to let that put him off. It's been declared
the governing party's candidate in next year's presidential election, so
he can take the forty years he'll have by next year,
and then he can just keep on totting that up,
because why not. He has won every single election since
nineteen eighty six. The constitution has been changed twice to

(12:30):
take age out in term limits out so he can
stay in office and if elected, and I can see
why they're going to elect him if elected. He says
he's going to press ahead with his mission to turn
Uganda into a high middle income country. Good luck with that.

Speaker 2 (12:42):
Six twenty five trending now with chemists, warehouse and celebrate
big brands and biggest savings.

Speaker 3 (12:49):
Well, it was known as the Great Weight, and thank
god the weight is over. Liam and Nol have got
back together. I'm obviously talking about Oasis. They took the
stage for the first time in sixteen years over the weekend,
kicking off their reunion tour and art sounds good. A

(13:15):
fans all said the same thing that they sound exactly
the same as all these years later. Some reviews have
said they never sounded better in their careers. And while
one legendary group is back, another has wrapped up apparently forever.
This is Ozzy Osborne and Black Sabbath. They performed what
they say is their final gig at Villa Park in Birmingham.

Speaker 8 (13:45):
Not bad.

Speaker 3 (13:46):
Not bad, especially when you consider by the way, can
I just say he was on stage for the Pull
Original for the first time in twenty years with the
Pull Original Black Sabbath lineup. Not bad considering he sat
the whole performance out in a black throne because Ozzie
suffer from Parkinson disease. Show was dubbed heavy Metal Live
Aid because it also featured Metallica, Guns and Roses, Slayer, Aerosmith,

(14:07):
Stephen Tyler and Rolling Stones. Ronnie would say, you had
the all them, all of them, all the ones, all
the ones, all the ones, all the ones who like
to wear lots of makeup and dress up like like that.
I've been thinking. I thought I saw it over the weekend.
Actually wondered if if Ozzie regretted his choice of genre
when he was in his team, because it would have
seemed like a good idea to dress like that when

(14:29):
you're about fifteen years old. But when you're sort of
heading the eighty marker starts to look a bit silly,
doesn't I would have.

Speaker 12 (14:34):
Thought, like the dark rings around the eyes, they just
start to come more naturally.

Speaker 3 (14:37):
You don't need as much makeup.

Speaker 12 (14:39):
Yes, this is a good point.

Speaker 3 (14:39):
Actually, listen, the government is having a look at what
we're going to do about banks and whether they pay
a fair share of tax and whether we need to
tax them some more. We're going to talk about that shortly.
Headlines are coming at your next person, person, where.

Speaker 2 (15:02):
Do Bazonie setting the agenda and talking the big issues.
Hither duplathy Ellen on the Mic Hosking breakfast with the
land Rover discovery, never stop discovering us talks, he'd be hither.

Speaker 3 (15:18):
The lack of trust and councils is reflected in the
voting turn out as a fair point. Actually quick update
for you, and what's going on with the cease fire
deal that Trump reckons he's struck between Israel and Hamas.
Israel has now decided it's going to send a delegation
to Kata for talks. Now that is a good sign
because this is the closest that we've been in terms
of it looking like we may actually be able to
stitch something together in a very long time with regards

(15:40):
to a ceasefire. But trouble is Israel is still unhappy,
they say, hmmas are trying to make some changes. They
think the changes are completely unacceptable, and one of the
changes would be an amendment that includes a guarantee that
hostilities would not resume if talks fail on this permanent
truce altogether. To keep an eye on that twenty two
away from seven money. So the government is considering seeking

(16:04):
advice from inland revenue around the tax settings for our
major banks. Finance Minister Nikola Willis wants advice ahead of
next year's budget on where the banks are paying their
fair share. Doctor Claire Matthews is a massive university banking
expert and with us right now.

Speaker 1 (16:16):
Claire, Hello, Marina Heaver.

Speaker 3 (16:18):
Is there any doubt that banks are paying their fair share?

Speaker 13 (16:23):
I don't think there is, although some people possibly will
have that doubt. The evidence is that for some time
now they have been paying the amount of tax that
you expect them to pay. They're paying it about the
corporate you know, you're not at the peril amount of
tax are paying. They're paying a percentage that aligns with
the corporate tax, right, which is what they should be paying.

Speaker 3 (16:42):
Yeah, So what do you think is motivating this?

Speaker 5 (16:43):
Then?

Speaker 13 (16:45):
The general attitude towards banks. We don't like the facts
for some reason that they make money, that they're a
big organization, and therefore that money is a lot of money,
and therefore the government looks at trying to take more off.

Speaker 3 (16:57):
Of So just a case of turning them into a
whipping boylife the supermarkets.

Speaker 1 (17:00):
Perhaps, I don't.

Speaker 13 (17:02):
Think it's turning them into they've been a whopping boy
for at least as long as a supermarket. So absolutely,
that's what it's about.

Speaker 3 (17:09):
Yeah, I mean, is it possible that there is an
ulterior motive here, Claire, if you believe the rumors that
are coming out of Wellington, there seems to be some
consideration of perhaps dropping the corporate tax rate. If you
drop the corporate tax rate, but then you pop another
tax on top of the banks, you may be able
to keep them paying what they're paying while everybody else
pays less. What are the chances?

Speaker 4 (17:29):
Oh?

Speaker 13 (17:29):
Absolutely, they pay a very large portion of something like
total tax Caughte total corporate tax in New Zealand, So
they're paying a huge amount of tax. So if you
drop the corporate tax rate but keep the banks tax
at a higher level, the government could manage to avoid
the excell impact on their text tape.

Speaker 3 (17:48):
Yeah exactly. You might be able to do that with
something like a major bank lever or something like that. Yeah, yeah, absolutely, Yeah,
And what do you reckon, Like, what level do you
set a major bank lever at?

Speaker 13 (18:00):
Well, I guess you said it at whatever you need
to to maintain your text tech or to increase your text.

Speaker 3 (18:05):
Tape it's reasonable though. I mean, let's let what do
you think that the government may think is reasonable? Set
aside what you or I may think. Are we talking
three percent four percent percent?

Speaker 13 (18:18):
It's really hard to know. Yes, if they were to
drop let's say they were to drop the top corporate
tax rate from twenty out to twenty five, then they
might say that they would leave the other banks at
three percent, an extra three percent so that they would
say at the same level so they're not disadvantage further
from what they are currently and potentially that would mean
that the intact for the bank, for the government wuld

(18:40):
be minimized.

Speaker 3 (18:41):
Claire, it's good to talk to you always as thank
you for your time, doctor Clare Matthew's banking expert at
Massive University. Listen, I love the sound of this. I've
got my fingers crossed that this works. The Europeans are
making changes to hand luggage and if this goes ahead,
then you know, these good on ideas catch on right.
It may it may actually spread across the world. They
want somedization because what's going on is you jump on

(19:02):
that flight, you could take some hand luggage. You jump
on the next flight, you can't take hand luggage. People
are getting called out and it's about the size of
the hand luggage rather than being able to take it.
So the proposal is you can actually take two bags
to the EU. One would be a cabin bag which
measures up to about one hundred centimeters and ways up
to seven cag's. That's the one you stick up the top.
Then you get another one you can stick underneath by
your feet. It's an under the seat personal item. Maximum

(19:26):
dimensions are forty x thirty by fifteen centimeters, so that's
basically the size of small backpack. How good would that be?
You can have one for the all the gear that
you need, because you know what it's like, and especially
when you're traveling with children, you need one for the
gear that you need for I don't know, changing the
outfits of face built poop or Coca cola all over themselves,
so that that's like the emergency. And then you've got

(19:46):
the actual like need this every five minutes bag which
is underneath.

Speaker 12 (19:49):
Actually, now that you mention it, you're right. They should
ban people traveling with children.

Speaker 3 (19:54):
It would do me a favor. Then I wouldn't feel
any obligation to travel eighteen away from seven.

Speaker 2 (19:59):
The Micos Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered by
News Talks.

Speaker 13 (20:04):
A b.

Speaker 3 (20:06):
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Speaker 2 (20:58):
Nzet still correspondence with Ends and Eye Insurance Peace of
Mind for New Zealand Business.

Speaker 3 (21:05):
Got some numbers on the number of students who are
not going to school for like a year at a time,
and it is quite staggering. I'll run you through though shortly.
Right now. It's called it to seven and Richard Arnold
US correspondents with US Morning.

Speaker 14 (21:15):
Richard, good morning here all right.

Speaker 3 (21:17):
Talk us through the Texas floods. What's the latest.

Speaker 14 (21:19):
Yeah, this is a horror story still playing out in Texas.
It's still raining on and off in The death toll
is rising as seventy people now are confirmed dead in
these flash floods in the center of the state. Twenty
one were children. We're going to have an update in
a few minutes as well, so we'll see what that brings.
Some of those young children were at a Christian camp,
a place called Camp Mystic, which has just been devastated.

(21:41):
The area of city manager Dalton Rice is saying this.

Speaker 3 (21:44):
We are seeing bodies recovered all over up and down.

Speaker 14 (21:47):
Yeah, they're scaring this place to see if they can
find people still alive. As for survivors and families, and
friends of the victims.

Speaker 15 (21:54):
Everyone in the community is hurting.

Speaker 7 (21:56):
We have increased our number of personnel that are nowavigetting
the really challenging shores along the bank line, but we
are continuing to make progress.

Speaker 14 (22:05):
Yeah, so far they've done one hundred and sixty air
rescues as well. But the scope of what happened is
just awful. There were seven hundred and fifty kids and
adults at this camp. At least eleven campers and one
council is still listed as missing. A number of the
bodies yet to be identified. This flood rose up in
the middle of the night, and it all happened so fast.
One woman who has come out alive, has swept more

(22:26):
than thirty kilometers downstream from where she was camping. They
found her screaming and clutching onto a tree limb. She
said she dodged floating vehicles and refrigerators in the swirling torrent.
Also another site store owners her desperate cries, but they
could do nothing.

Speaker 9 (22:44):
They say.

Speaker 6 (22:45):
We had all the ymas and rescue team trying to
save a family that was at the river clinging for life,
and it didn't get to them.

Speaker 14 (22:54):
We all heard them, what a horror scene had one camp.
Two young brothers, both under ten, got to dry ground
when the waters rose to the top bunk in the
place where they were staying.

Speaker 13 (23:03):
My brother, you're you.

Speaker 11 (23:04):
He had a swim out of his cot.

Speaker 16 (23:06):
The flood started getting bigger and it was going up
to We have bunk beds in our cabins, and it
was going up to the top bunk.

Speaker 1 (23:12):
Four in the morning.

Speaker 14 (23:13):
They were rescued after they got to dry land and
say that on their trip out, whole place was just obliterator.
Then there's the Ryan family. They were awakened when the
front door of their place burst open and waters gushed in.
The water pressure was so strong they were trapped in
the bedroom area, so Julian Ryan smashed open a window
with his arm and in doing so severely injured himself,
so there was blood everywhere.

Speaker 9 (23:34):
The rest of his.

Speaker 14 (23:35):
Family survived, but sadly, in minutes mister Ryan was gone.
While the Aids family went through a similar crisis. Brian
ead says he was floating then was struck in the
head by debris and lost track of his wife Catherine.
He survived by cleaning onto a tree. She did not.

Speaker 9 (23:48):
She was killed.

Speaker 14 (23:50):
The desperate search for the missing still is on. However,
this part of the Guadalupe River has a history. In
nineteen eighty seven, they were hit by another flash flood
that was marginally even stronger.

Speaker 1 (24:00):
This time.

Speaker 14 (24:00):
The flood will rose to nine meters within minutes. The
area became known as flash Flood Alley. And yet this
is where they have a Christian camp for kids ages eight, nine, ten.

Speaker 10 (24:10):
I don't know.

Speaker 14 (24:11):
Also, the weather FORECA significantly understated the likely rainfall. Some
parts got thirty centimeters of raign in minutes. This was
a deluge, Heaver. It's occurred at a time when key
roles at the Texas Whether Services had vacancies, including the
job of warning meteorologist quote unquote. That guy took early
retirement when the Elon Musk chainsaw cutbacks were happening.

Speaker 3 (24:32):
Richard, it's good to talk to you. Thank you for
all of the information that's Richard Arnold, US correspondent. Elon,
by the way, has had enough. He's announced this past
weekend he's going to launch himself a new political party.
Details at the moment are pretty sketch. He's not a
lot that's out there, but we know it's called the
American Party. He put it to a poll on x
formerly known as Twitter, which we all call Twitter. Two

(24:53):
to one people want this third party. He reckons it
would have a laser focus on just two three Senate
seats and eight to ten House districts, and he has
suggested that possibly the party would run during the twenty
twenty six mid term elections. Good luck to him. Hasn't
worked for anybody else, but maybe he can do it. Now,
what about this? Okay this, I find these numbers staggering.

(25:15):
Last year, about eleven hundred students didn't go to school
at all at all, not once, not one day, not
at all for a whole year, if not more. It
just didn't turn up eleven hundred kids. It is a
huge number when you consider I mean, obviously it's just
a huge number when you see it, but especially when
you consider that back in twenty fifteen, which is you
know what, ten years ago, it was only one hundred

(25:38):
and sixty three kids. Now, how you go from one
hundred and sixty three kids to it being oney one
hundred kids, I don't know. Obviously, we've done the old
thing that we always do, blame the old COVID say
it's COVID's fault that this happened. COVID was a long
time ago. People, I think we can stop blaming it
for this. I mean, maybe it started some bad habits,
but it's an incredible one. I think what is also
quite interesting here is that the kids. We're not talking

(25:59):
about kids who are sort of like I mean, I
hesitate to say it was not like you know, first
year stuff. Is these are kids who are twelve, twelve
to fourteen the majority of them. So it really absolutely
should be learning some very important things. Anyway, we'll have
a chat about that later on in the next half
hour of the program. Right now, it's ten to seven.

Speaker 2 (26:16):
Heather duper c Allen on the mic Hosking Breakfast with
Bailey's real Estate News.

Speaker 1 (26:21):
Dogs d BE.

Speaker 3 (26:23):
I know, Mike's got you absolutely fizzling for the F one.
So the update on the F one, if you haven't
called it already, is that Liam Lawson's out of the
British Grand Prix already. He didn't last a single lap.
Not his driver and not his fault. Rather, he was
clipped by another driver. They were coming around the fifth
corner or just approaching the fifth corner. He managed to
avoid hitting the wall and probably didn't realize how badly
his car was damaged, so he tried to keep going,

(26:44):
but unfortunately it just had suffered too much damage. He
had to pull out and obviously a bummer for him
because he'd done really well last weekend in Austria, so
it was probably looking to kind of prove himself again
not to be six away from seven.

Speaker 2 (26:58):
All the ins are it's the fiz with business fiber
take your business productivity to the next level here.

Speaker 3 (27:06):
So, as we've discussed earlier with Andrew, big Day this
week for the Reserve Bank on Wednesday, they're going to
be reviewing the official cash rate now it currently sits
at three point twenty five percent, and economists to divide
it as to whether or not the RB will cut
to three percent and whether or not they actually should.
The majority verdict is that they're going to pause the
rate cuts with an ITEL one or two maybe later
in the year. Potentially, what it boils down to is

(27:28):
a debate between whether they can afford to wait to
see how much pressure the near term inflation will put
us under, versus needing to do something about the slow
economy right now now. BMZ economists are those who say
that the RB needs to pay attention to the fact
that the economy is failing for fire currently and then
cut again on Wednesday. However, they also note that Trump's
tariff pause expires less than a day after the OCR

(27:50):
cut decision, so maybe the RB will hold fire because
of that. Sharon's Olner at A and Z also believes
they should cut and will cut, which is the importanudn't
be to have the OCR down at two point five
percent by the end of the year with the additional cuts.
She thinks it's about a forty percent chance of a cut.
West Back have gone completely the other way. They think
there will not be a cut this week. They even

(28:11):
suggest that the RB may not cut again for the
rest of the year. The justification for that is, amongst
other things, that the global equity markets are at a
record highs and there are consensus forecasts for global growth
that have come out in recent weeks. Whennesday will be
a big day for US as a country, clear indication
for people and businesses alike as we move into the
second half of the year, and I think, yeah, anybody

(28:34):
with a mortgage will have the fingers crossed, won't they Now,
we haven't got the Prime Minister in today. We have
got Chris luxen Is on personal leave. We've got David
Seymourton instead. I mean, I don't think it feels conspiratorial
to suggest that Chris has time to leave with Mike.
What do you think? I think they've had a chat
and they've said to it.

Speaker 12 (28:52):
I didn't until you said that, didn't what think that
it was conspiratorial.

Speaker 3 (28:57):
Now you think it's conspiratorial because I said it out
loud better that before I said it out loud on
the radio. So anyway, I think this was I think
this is what's going on here. We'll see. Well, if
Chris pops up anywhere else, anywhere else at all, if
I see him anywhere else, even like shuffling a paper,
then I'm gonna know that he's timed it with Mike
just so that he can have a break from from
what he calls what does he call inquisitorial? It's like

(29:19):
an inquisition, he says when he comes on the show
with Mike. Anyway, he should have taken his opportunity taken
leave when Mike was away. I would have I would
have probably gone much lighter on him next up. It's
phase two of the COVID inquiry. We're gonna check and
the public stuff is about to kick off. So if
you're interested in hearing what people have got to say,
can tune and.

Speaker 1 (29:37):
Have a look.

Speaker 3 (29:38):
We're gonna we're gonna have a chat to the chair
about the next and then let's get a take on
whether the government should introduce those minimum mandatory sentences.

Speaker 16 (29:46):
News Dogs Be News is next.

Speaker 1 (30:06):
The breakfast show, Kiwi's Trust to Stay in the Know.
Heather d to see Ellen on the mic asking.

Speaker 2 (30:11):
Breakfast with Bailey's real estate altogether better across residential, commercial
and rural news talks.

Speaker 3 (30:18):
He'd be good morning to you. The second half of
the COVID nineteen Royal Commission of Inquiry gets underway today,
at least as far as the public part is concerned.
Public hearings will be held all week and they will
be live streamed online. Grant E. Ellingworth Casey is the
Chair of the Royal Commission of Inquiry with us now high.

Speaker 1 (30:34):
Grant, good morning.

Speaker 3 (30:35):
What do you reckon is going to be the most
crunchy here the mandates or the vaccine safety Look.

Speaker 17 (30:40):
I think mandates are the thing that people are most
excited about and that they find most adjectionable. Obviously, not
everyone does, because some people are Quite a number of
people think that the mandates protected them while they were
at work and so on. But there are, of course

(31:01):
many people who take the opposite view.

Speaker 3 (31:03):
You've obviously already got some submissions that have come in.
What proportion do you reckon in support of the mandates?

Speaker 17 (31:09):
Look, we've got people assessing the submissions at the moment,
and there are thirty one thousand of them. I don't
profess to have read them all. I've read some, and
I can't give you any accurate figures as to proportions,
but there's certainly a fair chunk that will be focusing
on that issue, do.

Speaker 3 (31:30):
You I mean, this has been a touchy subject in
the past. Do you think that you will get full,
unvarnished opinions from people.

Speaker 17 (31:37):
Yes, I think we will and we have. We've done
a lot of interviews, a lot of engagements with groups,
and people are being very open and forthright about what
they think.

Speaker 3 (31:49):
Are you forming an opinion yet on whether the mandates
were necessary?

Speaker 17 (31:54):
I can't predetermine what the outcome is going to be,
but of course you get impressions along the way. We've
got to keep an open mind because we are required
to follow the principles of procedural fairness. But certainly impressions
being gathered and many of them.

Speaker 3 (32:13):
Yeah, interesting, Grant. I mean at the start the opposition
was largely to the vaccine. Why do you think it
and you know, questions around vaccine safety. Why do you
think the mandates have overtaken that?

Speaker 17 (32:24):
Well, vaccines were introduced at a point where we desperately
needed something to solve a very big problem, and I
think the majority of New Zealanders embraced it, and the
questions of vaccine safety became more poignant further down the track.

(32:48):
But once vaccine mandates were introduced, and as that policy developed,
it affected more people and I think people felt, well,
the rights are being taken away, So you know, it
touches a nerve and people react.

Speaker 3 (33:06):
Looking forward to seeing what you've got to say about that, Grant,
really appreciate your time. Grant Ellingworth Casey, Chair of the
Royal Commission of Inquiry into COVID nineteen, Part two, ten,
Pars seven.

Speaker 1 (33:14):
Heather Duplessy Allen, looks like the.

Speaker 3 (33:16):
Government is considering a major change to our sentencing laws
and that it might introduce minimum sentences. Now, we already
obviously have maximum sentences that can be handed out, but
as it stands, no minimums. Sir Ron Young is a
former High Court judge and with us now.

Speaker 1 (33:28):
Ron, Hello, Hello, how are you heaven?

Speaker 3 (33:31):
Very well? Thank you? Do you think we should have minimums?

Speaker 4 (33:35):
No?

Speaker 18 (33:35):
No, it's going to cause an injustice that because it
will mean the judges can't take into the facts of
the case and they can't take into account the offender's
personal circumstances, and that's going to mean that it will
be unfair and unjust.

Speaker 1 (33:50):
Sense Well, they.

Speaker 3 (33:51):
Can, can't they They can take it into account to
a point, but not beyond that point. Is that not fair?

Speaker 18 (33:57):
Well, many of the situations will likely occur where the
minimum sentences actually too long based on a proper assessment
of the facts and the personal circumstances, So they won't
be able to do so in those circumstances, and justices
will occur.

Speaker 3 (34:15):
So part of what is going on here is a
reaction to the fact that the judiciary, in handing out
what the public may consider too light a sentence, is
losing the confidence of the public. How do you fix that?

Speaker 18 (34:25):
Yeah, well you fix it by understanding the facts. I mean,
thirty years ago, people who were convicted of murder and
sentenced to life imprisonment generally served around about ten years
before they were released. It's now fifteen, eighteen, twenty years.
Sentences for rape were three or four years thirty years ago,
and in our eight and nine years public have gone

(34:48):
a completely wrong idea about the kind of level of sentencing.
New Zealand has a heck of a lot of people
in prison compared with most of other similar countries, so
we're not light in sentencing. We're actually at the heavy end.

Speaker 3 (35:03):
Have you done any comparisons as to the cumulative sentence
discount that is handed down how that compares to historically.

Speaker 18 (35:12):
Sure, I mean, sentences have got much much heavier in
the last thirty years. And the I mean, the cumulative
concurrent issue is as I think, a bit of a
red herring, because sentences do take into account the total
number of offenses and how they work across the various crimes.

Speaker 3 (35:31):
What I mean, ron is we've got judges handing out
sentence discounts of you know, in some cases seventy to
eighty percent, which is enormous.

Speaker 18 (35:38):
Is that normal no, and I in fact agree with
the limitation on forty percent. I think that's fair enough
because I do think the sentence must bear a relationship
to the criminal offending. So that's an area where I
do think seventy to eighty percent is wrong, and I
think that it does undermine that connection. There's a proble

(36:01):
connection between what you do and what the punishment is.

Speaker 3 (36:04):
Ron, it's good to talk to you. Thank you for
your time that sir Ron Young, former High Court judge
and chairperson of the New Zealand Parole.

Speaker 1 (36:08):
Board together do for CLIs So.

Speaker 3 (36:12):
News just out is that Wellington Hospital is going to
be cutting maternity beds to make room for ED. A
memo has been leaked which suggests they're just doing this
for a trial. But basically how it works is they've
got four pods, they call them pods. They've got four
pods for maternity and they're going to reduce that down
by one pod and for some I can't quite figure
out how, but they're gonna end up with only two
pods for maternity. They say it's absolutely fine. They say

(36:34):
they've got heaps of empty beds, often heaps of empty
beds in the maternity ward, midwives and obstetricians dispute that,
and they say, there's absolutely, absolutely not be the case.
And if you start taking beds out, you're just gonna
end up with mums being discharged far too quickly. I reckon,
keep an eye on this. I reckon it doesn't happen
because this is the same hospital that tried to take
the toast away from mums, and you start dicking around

(36:56):
with mums who've just given birth. I reckon it's the
biggest hot potato out the one off one of It's
a lot of hot potatoes in health, but this is
one of the biggest ones. I don't reckon they'll get
away with it. Fourteen past seven.

Speaker 2 (37:07):
The Mike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio, Howard
By News talks at be.

Speaker 3 (37:14):
Heather eighteen years maximum for murder is still a joke.
I'm not finished talking about this. Actually we'll deal with
a little bit more. Also, by the way, I remember Monday,
so the commentary box is going to be with us
after eight o'clock right now. Seventeen past seven. Now, this
is a crazy number. Get a load of this. Last year,
about eleven hundred students didn't go to school at all
for more than a year. They were not enrolled in
any school for more than a year. And it's not

(37:35):
the little ones that we're talking about. Two thirds of
these kids are aged between twelve and fourteen years old.
Kathy Charmers is the lead principle of the Manyereba Attendance
Service and is with us morning, Kathy. What on earth
is going on that number has gone up by five
times in just ten years.

Speaker 13 (37:53):
Yeah, it's there are a lot of students. I think
some of that is a backlog of students that have
been non enrolled from COVID times that particularly at the
adolescent age. Yeah, there's a there's a large number of
disengaged students and getting them back to school is a

(38:13):
really complex problem.

Speaker 3 (38:14):
Why Why is it complex? Is it because you can't
find them?

Speaker 13 (38:18):
Not being able to find them as part of it.
The other thing is that you kind of need multi
and multi agency approach. Normally, there are other issues that
contribute to the reasons why they're not going to school.
And sometimes it's condont you know, sometimes they've got to
an age where the parents find it just as hard

(38:40):
to get them to go to school. The students are
making their own choices about what they're doing, and so
it's it's it's not as simple as just picking them
up in a car and re enrolling them.

Speaker 3 (38:50):
No, I mean, what are the what are the options
if you if you turn up at the house and
they're sitting, they're playing on the PlayStation and mums like whatever,
I don't care, or does care, but the young one
doesn't care. What can you do?

Speaker 13 (39:02):
Well, that's that's the whole problem.

Speaker 3 (39:03):
I mean, I'm not allowed to put them up and
put them in the car, are you?

Speaker 13 (39:07):
Attendance officers are able to if they if they are
an appointed attendance office, So yes they are. The legislation
allows for that. But you you're not going to force
an a shoe like that. That's that that's combative. That's
that's not going to re engage a student with education.

(39:28):
You've sort of got to get them behind them and
have a wrap around approach. You know that there's being
combative is not going to sustain a child at school.
They'll just take off. So you know that's probably not
the recommended approach.

Speaker 3 (39:43):
Well what's the recommending approach then? Because none of the
approaches are working, Well.

Speaker 13 (39:48):
I wouldn't say that they're not working. I think what
you've got is a large backlog that that are very
very difficult hey to find those students, because the longer
they're out of school, the lot the harder it is
to find them. The ones that have not been out
of school for such a long time, they're the ones
that you were likely to have more success. The longer

(40:10):
child's out of school, the more they become engaged in
other activities that they would prefer to do. Think, I
think that's why it needs a multi agency response. You know,
that's where you know, where we get support for them
in schools, we get them into the right school. I
think alternative education pathways, you know, need to perhaps be

(40:33):
more offerings that you know, that's very limited for the
twelve to thirteen year old age les old that you
know alternative education only starts at year nine. You know,
these kids need a different approach. The stocks tended straight
into a classroom with thirty kids isn't probably going to

(40:54):
work as well.

Speaker 3 (40:55):
Well, clearly nothing normal is working there. Kathy, thank you mate.
That's Kathy Charmers, lead principle of the Manyetto were Attendance Service.
Tell you, actually, I've got to tell you before before
too long, I met a family that doesn't school the kids,
and I reckon part of I reckon. Our biggest problem
in New Zealand right now with education is we don't

(41:16):
know how lucky we are. There are people around the
world who cannot send their kids to school, and they
would do anything to get the kids in education. We
take it completely for granted and don't think it's worth
it anyway. I'll tell you I think that yarn might
actually blow your mind. I might tell you about that later.
Seven twenty one.

Speaker 2 (41:30):
The Mic Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News talks at behither.

Speaker 3 (41:40):
The maternity proposal for Wellington Hospital is both ridiculous and dangerous.
I gave birth there two years ago. I almost hemorrhaged,
almost died because they were so busy and understaffed. Wa'n't it.
It's not going to happen. Seven twenty four now on
the government asking for potentially considering minimum sentences. If they
go ahead this with us, I would have absolutely no
problem whatsoever, and I realize that the judiciary are not

(42:02):
going to love this. Ala Sir Ron Young, who was
just on with us before, because it's tying their hands.
But that is actually the point, because some of the
sentencing discounts that have been handed down by judges are
frankly outrageous. And the worst case I've come across as
the one that I was talking to Ron about, which
is the case of a rapist to attack the woman
in Albert Park in Auckland Central about three years ago.

(42:25):
This guy was given a discount of seventy seven percent
by the judge. He was discounted for being young, He
was discounted for pleading guilty. He was discounted for being
a good boy before that, which I very much doubt.
He was discounted for being for trying to be better
after that, which I also have my doubts about the defense.
Seventy seven percent actually was not that bad because the

(42:45):
defense lawyer was looking for discounts totaling one hundred and
ten percent. How do you possibly discount more than one
hundred percent? But this is the game that they're playing.
Discounting to that point feels like nothing more than trying
to get as light a sentence as possible. Now I
know that the government has already mandated that the laws
the judges are only able to limit their discounts to
forty percent. But I don't even think that that fixes

(43:06):
the problem entirely, hence needing a minimum, because there are
still ways to gain that right. A judge can simply
start at a very low point discounted to forty percent,
and end up at the low point that they want to.
Judges clearly seem to think that fifteen years in jail
for murder is maybe a little bit much. I don't
think that's a bit much. I think that's life. I
think if you take a life, fifteen years to me

(43:26):
seems like getting off quite lightly. A minimum sets a
bar below which even the craftyes judge can't fall. The
problem with it, obviously, is the risk that that becomes
the default sentence. Right, But if that starts happening, we
can deal with that later. And this is not a
novel idea, by the way, It's not like we're being cruel.
They do this in the States, they do this in
the UK, they do this in Australia, they do this
in Singapore, and the list goes on, and I can

(43:47):
see now a case for us doing it too, because
if you are discounting three quarters of a sentence, I
think you've got a problem together. Do for c L
and I'll tell you what. We're going to talk about
this with a commentary box later on. Oh, by the way,
David Cmore in just a minute, so we'll have a
chat to him about whether he's in favor of the
minimum sentences. AI is a problem at Wimbledon at the moment.

(44:07):
We're going to talk about this with a commentary box
after eight. Apparently, so they've got the AI in for
the first time in Wimbledon's history, or they've got something
other other than an umpire's eyeball for the first time
in Wimbledon's history, and the AI is supposed to see
when the ball goes out. The problem is the AI
can't see when the ball goes out. The biggest problem
seems to have happened in the fourth man match round
between Cartel and Anastasia pavlio Chenkova. Now pavlio Chenkov served,

(44:33):
Cartel replied to the backhand, the backhand way overshot the
service line. It was about a foot out right now,
a foot out. There's no disputing we can all see that.
You could see that at the far end, if you're
standing up in the bleachers, you can see a foot out,
but the AI couldn't see it. No intervention from AI.
Umpire told the players to holt play stop stop. The
mid rally stop stop stop had to see if the

(44:54):
ball had gone out. They all stood around kind of
twiddling their thumbs and waving their rackets around for about
four minutes before they were actually able to make a
call on it. It's been criticized by a couple of
players already previously. I think a male player, Emma Radicanu
may have criticized it as well in the postmatch press conferences.
So I think we have a problem. I don't know

(45:15):
about you, but I think we may have a problem
with the AI. So we'll see. That's that's ruined it
for everybody because we needed that eagle, I think. Anyway,
talk about that soon. News is next, you know, care
Home Word.

Speaker 2 (45:36):
Your source of breaking news, challenging opinion and honored facts
and the duper c Allen on the Mic Hosking Breakfast
with a Vita Retirement Communities, Life Your Way News, Tog
said B.

Speaker 3 (45:50):
Twenty three away from mate, We're gonna have the commentary
box with us after eight o'clock right now, though we
have Deputy Prime Minister David Seymour in for Christopher Luxen
with us Mourning David.

Speaker 15 (45:58):
Good morning.

Speaker 3 (46:00):
Where's Chris?

Speaker 15 (46:01):
Oh, he's taken a pretty well earned break.

Speaker 19 (46:04):
I can't reveal his exact location, but he is having
some time with Amanda. And the guy works basically fifty
out of fifty two weeks a year, so I think
he deserves it.

Speaker 3 (46:13):
Yeah, first holiday of the year. As far as I
can tell.

Speaker 19 (46:16):
A, I don't track him that religiously, but I think
you're probably right.

Speaker 3 (46:20):
Is it coincidental that he's timed it with Mike first
holiday of Mike's.

Speaker 15 (46:24):
Yeah, Well we don't know where Mike is either, so
who knows?

Speaker 3 (46:28):
It could be something going on here. Now, what do
you think of these minimum sentences? Are you into this?

Speaker 15 (46:33):
Look?

Speaker 19 (46:33):
I think it's really important that the judges actually set
the law, and they do so or interpret the law, sorry,
and they do so independently. I don't want to live
in a society where some strong man starts messing out
the punishments. It took hundreds of years for us to
get away from that, and I don't particularly want to
go back to it. That said, I think it is

(46:53):
important that that independent judiciary is constantly getting feedback from
the rest of the community that they're sentencing reflects community norms. Now,
I know there'll be people listening who say, yeah, all right,
I just read about a sentence that doesn't reflect my
idea of a community norm And one way that you
can fix that is for Parliament to start giving them

(47:13):
a bit of feedback of our own through the democratic process.
We say, look, actually, you know you can't discount more
than forty percent. You can't give more than twenty five
percent for a guilty plea. You can't keep giving discounts
for remorse because though sorry, last time, they're.

Speaker 3 (47:29):
Tying their hands, right, you are tying their hands in
your own way.

Speaker 19 (47:33):
We're leaving the ultimate decision up to them, but we're
giving some guidelines on behalf of the community. And that's
about where you want to be. You want the judiciary
to be reflecting community norms and expectations, but giving them
the discretion to work out the individual case.

Speaker 3 (47:48):
Because you think that they actually respond to what I mean,
They must be aware that people are pretty upset about
what's going on. At least some people are pretty upset
about it. Do you think they're responding to it?

Speaker 19 (47:57):
Yeah, Look, I just make the observation. And I don't
want to be seen at all as criticizing the judiciary.
But on average, if you become a judge, you're someone
who's had a very successful law career. Chances are you
live in quite a nice suburb, and chances are you're
actually a very intelligent person who's very good at thinking

(48:18):
and reasoning, and oh, well, they did this because they
had a bad time. If you're someone who has just
been bashed up or had your kid or your partner attacked,
or had your car nicked and that you don't have
any money and you need to get to work, then
you're not thinking like that. You're thinking, I want that
person dealt to and I want this crime to stop.
And I think one of the reasons that we've put

(48:39):
in place three strikes, one of the reasons we put
in place these limits on sentence discounts is that the
Parliament is basically giving feedback from people like that to
the judiciary that we need you to make sure you
reflect what the community wants. And so I think we've
got just the right balance between a free and independent
judiciary with a bit of feedback on the side.

Speaker 3 (49:00):
How's the shoplifting fine going to work. Can you actually
find somebody on the spot without determining their guilt.

Speaker 19 (49:05):
Yeah, it's in a fringeman notice offense. So for example,
you get stung forlift, sorry, speeding, then you know you
can choose to go to court and defend yourself. No
one can be punished without a court hearing and a
trial before a judge or a jury of your peers.
That's all still there. But the default is you just
pay the fine, and this will be exactly the same.

(49:27):
The default as you just pay the fine, and frankly,
most people.

Speaker 15 (49:31):
In this situation will know they're.

Speaker 19 (49:32):
Guilty, just like some of us do with speeding, and
you're just going to pay. It saves a lot of time.
Look at it the other way, if you have to
go to court to get a conviction every time someone
was done for speeding, it'll be like the D five
hundred out there.

Speaker 3 (49:45):
So what's going to happen, though, is you're going to
have somebody who gets nicked for shoplifting. They're simply going
to say, yes, I did it, cop the fine because
they know they're not going to pay the fine, right,
so they just get that thing. Get that process going
faster is what we want.

Speaker 19 (49:58):
Well, it may be that they are not going to
pay the fine, but that has further penalties down the line.

Speaker 15 (50:03):
So yep, I get it. And people are say, all the.

Speaker 3 (50:05):
Penalties down the line.

Speaker 19 (50:06):
Well, ultimately, if you don't pay your fines, you can
be put in prison. That's the ultimate penalty. And I
know that there'll be people who say, oh, well, look,
people don't pay fine, so there's no point. My question
is where do we start? Because right now we've got
a society where people work hard, pay their bills. You know,
they end up taking stuff out of the trolley because
it's so damn expensive at the supermarket, and then they

(50:28):
see someone else just walk out scot free. I believe
it's important that we start putting in some penalties and
some computed community norms that there's actually consequences for this stuff.

Speaker 3 (50:36):
See the Children's Commissioner wants to carve out for kids
so that they don't get this fine. Would you consider that?

Speaker 4 (50:41):
Well?

Speaker 15 (50:41):
I saw that.

Speaker 19 (50:42):
But frankly, here's the two worlds that a kid can
grow up. And there's one where you do something wrong,
relatively small thing, and you get corrected, and then you
go on and live a better life. Or there's a
New Zealand where children say, look, what would happen if
I dot dot dot, And a school principle said this
to me recently. The answer is often if I dot

(51:04):
dot dot, nothing happens. Just about anything you fill in
the dot dot dot, nothing happens. So I think actually
having more consequences earlier on for younger people is far
better than getting away with it. Getting away with it
then all of a sudden, you're eighteen, you commit a
real crime and you see a real door slam shut. Yeah,
that's what we want to avoid. So I'm all for
actually more graduated penalties for younger people and a society

(51:27):
with some norms where actually, if you do the right thing,
you're going to be okay. Not if you scrimp and
save and try your best and people nick your stuff anyway,
it's just demoralizing and it's infuriating people.

Speaker 3 (51:36):
Would you consider funding or partially funding.

Speaker 9 (51:39):
With GOVI.

Speaker 15 (51:41):
I wouldn't.

Speaker 19 (51:41):
FARMACT might but I've always been really clear that the
arm's length and it's important that they are independent, because
otherwise you end up in a situation where you're just
having a popularity contest and I'll just give you one
example of why that matters. I had a woman in
my office years ago now as a local MP, and
she said, look, I've got this cancer head and neck.

(52:03):
It's it's disfigured. I've had to have a lot of
my jaw removed. She said, I wish this cancer was
in my breast because you know breast cancer and good
on the Breast Cancer Foundation, and you know Brook van
Valden and I we put on a pink ribbon breakfast.
They've got the profile up, no question. But we don't
want to live in a world where something has to

(52:23):
be high profile and dare I say it's sexy to
get attention and get funding. Farmac has to make the
decision should they fund with GOVI that's up to them.
But you can see the benefits right. We're spending a
huge amount on dialysis for people with diabetes. We're spending
a huge amount on orthopedics for people too.

Speaker 15 (52:40):
Heavy on that drink.

Speaker 3 (52:41):
Could this would the NHS considered in the UK would
bankrupt them if they gave it to everybody with a
BMI over thirty five and we're looking at a BMI
over thirty.

Speaker 15 (52:48):
Yeah, I understand that but that's why.

Speaker 19 (52:50):
That's why FARMAC have got to do the maths, and
it may be that the math's at up or they don't.

Speaker 15 (52:55):
That's why that decision's arm's length.

Speaker 19 (52:56):
I'm just laying out the case and where we want
to go with Farmer generally is to start instead of
just managing a fixed budget and saying no all the time,
saying well, okay, if the government was to spend more
on pharmaceuticals, what could we save elsewhere? Classic example Tricafter
since that's been funded for people with as cystic fibrosis,
lung transplants have fallen off a cliff.

Speaker 1 (53:18):
Now.

Speaker 19 (53:18):
I don't know what a lung transplant costs, but it's
probably the most expensive thing on the health of.

Speaker 3 (53:22):
Stand upfronts that you don't spend heaps later.

Speaker 12 (53:24):
On at Yeah.

Speaker 3 (53:24):
Absolutely, Okay, listen this independent costing unit. Do you think
this idea is dead now?

Speaker 15 (53:30):
I do.

Speaker 19 (53:30):
I don't think it's ever made sense. I mean, speaking
just for a moment for the act Party. You know,
we've put out fully costed alternative budgets every year we've
been in opposition, never had a problem, so there's no
need for this thing. On the other hand, do you
want the bureaucracy, who, by the way, gets stuff wrong
all the time. You know, just because you get a
job at a government department doesn't mean you suddenly right
about everything. Do you want them to effectively be the

(53:52):
gatekeepers to the policies in the election when the whole
point of the election is to hold them accountable in.

Speaker 15 (53:58):
The first play?

Speaker 3 (53:59):
Would we pay for stuff that you guys as political
parties are paying for yourself, like you're bearing the cost
of your independent costings. I don't want to pay for it.

Speaker 19 (54:06):
I almost want to make a plug for people to
dinatet to political parties. But absolutely right, it's not just
the one point two million that's been voted. Any government
department would have to drop tools before an election, stop
doing the work for the government that's actually elected, and
start arguing about some other potential policy that's not a
good use of resource.

Speaker 3 (54:24):
David, how do you rate your chances that you're going
to be able to convince Winston to partially privatize the fairies.

Speaker 19 (54:31):
It won't be me that will persuade him. It will
actually be fiscal reality. Right now, we're spending over nine
billion a year on interest payments. That's more than the
top eleven tax payers in New.

Speaker 3 (54:43):
Zealand more, When has money actually made sense to Winston?

Speaker 4 (54:46):
Right?

Speaker 3 (54:46):
So who's going to convince him?

Speaker 10 (54:48):
And Ken?

Speaker 19 (54:49):
I'll tell you what I've learned working with Winston is
that while we may have different views on a lot
of things, when it's time, when the chips are down,
he does actually a reality.

Speaker 15 (55:01):
And in this.

Speaker 19 (55:01):
Case, the question is do we want to spend nine
billion in interest payments every year or do we want
to say, look, you know, owning a faery business that's
debt on the books that we're paying interest on, there's
already a private faery company that's doing very well. Maybe
this isn't something the government needs to give me your
chances out of ten out of ten let me put it,

(55:22):
let me put it about an eight A well, I
tell you for me to look forward to look that
the challenges that we face as a government are tough,
and we face them on behalf of all New Zealanders
who are facing tough financial times. Every business, every household,
every farm has to make tough choices and the government
is going to have to make those tough choices as well.

Speaker 3 (55:42):
David, thank you very much for coming in really prey
very much, David Symore and for Chris Lux and the
Prime Minister who's on leave. Thirteen away from eight.

Speaker 2 (55:49):
The Mike Asking Breakfast, a full show podcast on Iheartradiown,
powered by the News talks at.

Speaker 1 (55:55):
Be Morning Here.

Speaker 3 (55:57):
How many times does one get a discount for upbringing case?
And if an offender offends five times and is forty
eight years of age, does he get five five discounts
each time for upbringing? Absolutely he does. Of course, it's
entirely up to the judges hither and every judge would
love that, wouldn't they? Here the paper penalties read, the
fines are not going to work on these people. It's
a complete waste of time. Look, I agree, and I

(56:18):
think none of us, none of us are stupid, are
we We've been around a long time. We know these
guys are going to come and they're going to get
a fine. They're just going to rack those fines up,
rack those fines up with the threat that they might
end up in jail if they don't pay the fines.
It's not gonna happen because they just I mean, if
you're out there stealing stuff, he's just walking into someone's
shop and licking their stuff. You hardly care about paying
your fines back? Do you listen? Got to give you

(56:40):
a quick update on what's going on with Judith Collins.
She's got these plans to scrap the diversity requirements from
the Public Service Act. Fair to say, government departments not
happy at all. Ministry for the Environment has voiced its concern.
It's worried that people will think badly of it, risk
of a negative perception, it says. Ministry for Pacific People's
has warned her that a decentralized approach to DIVE would

(57:00):
result in defragmentation or fragmentation and inefficiency. God only knows
what that means. I'm not even gonna bother trying. Doc says.
It disagrees because diversity and inclusion are important for living standards,
inclusion and trust whatever. And it goes on, and it
goes on. There's a legal challenge potentially for over the
Human Rights Act and Employment Relations Act. You know what,
take your chance, as Judith, I reckon, because hiring someone
just because they're a woman is completely nuts. D away

(57:23):
from mate here the.

Speaker 2 (57:24):
Dup c Allen on the Mike hosting breakfast with al
Vida Retirement Communities news togs dead.

Speaker 3 (57:30):
Be also Heather on the shoplifting fine. The offenders won't
provide their name details unless you can rummage through their
wallets or bags. Oh yeah, cool guys, real cool guys,
making the cops life super easy. Speaking of, by the way,
not providing names. If you haven't heard the story about
the chap who accidentally got about eleven and a half
thousand dollars transferred to the wrong bank account and the

(57:51):
kafuffle he had to go through to get that money back.
Never got a back, never got a back. Hang on,
because I'm going to tell you about that shortly. Now
I need to tell you about the kids who don't
go to school. So this blew my mind. I went,
I went to a party. I'm not going to name
names because I don't want I don't want it to
get back to her that I'm talking about her behind
her back openly on the radio. This person, but it

(58:11):
was doesn't strike me as a news talk ZB listener.
I'm just gonna say that because strikes me as a
kind of slightly offbeat happy vibe. Now I don't mind
an offbeat happy, right, but not this kind of offbeat happy,
this offbeat happy. I think. I'm not even sure. I
don't even know if they've got a radio. Let's just
say so. Anyway, wasn't The host of the party was
a friend at the party, sat down, started talking about kids,

(58:33):
as you do, and we're talking about kids being sick,
and I just made the comment. I said, oh, yeah,
I think her kids were something like eight and ten
or whatever. And I said to her, Oh, yeah, school bugs,
it's a pain in the butt. She goes, Oh, my
kids don't go to school. And I was like, oh
don't they. Oh jeez, I said, you're brave doing the
old homeschooling. I don't. No, I don't do homeschooling. I
was like, well, what are you doing. She goes, Oh,

(58:53):
my kids are unschooling. What the hell is unschooling? Then like,
at this stage, my po cafe, this is dropping Like
I'm really trying. I'm trying here, but I cannot hide
that this is becoming a bizarre situation to me. She says, basically,
her kids learn just by themselves. They just do They
just learn whatever, do their own thing, you know, So
go out there, play with the bugs and a magnifying glass.

(59:15):
I don't know the learning science. I suppose learning light.
I don't know who's teaching them about refraction of lights,
but that figuring that out, they go outside dig up
some earth worms. I suppose they're learning about layers biodiversity.
I don't really know anyway, So I said to her, listen,
do you feel like by the time your kids get
to I don't know, pick a number sixteen, they're going
to be able to read as well as a sixteen
year old. She's like, yeah, totally. I said, oh yeah,

(59:36):
can your eight and teen year old read yet? Nah?
So just in case you think that those eleven hundred
kids are like parents who don't care, No, they do care,
They just make some really wild decisions. Commentary boxes next.

Speaker 2 (59:51):
The News and the News Hither Duper See Hellen on
the Mic Hosking Breakfast with the land Rover, Discovery never
stopped Discovering News, talks head.

Speaker 12 (01:00:07):
Being too spru it, is no wrong, no run come.

Speaker 20 (01:00:14):
And a so called second Frank brink Side has delivered
a third right performance, but the All Blacks hang on
to win Test number one of twenty twenty five thirty
one twenty seventh.

Speaker 1 (01:00:28):
He wanted off for a last time out.

Speaker 3 (01:00:30):
This is gonna mean so much more Lando Norris for
the first time ever.

Speaker 12 (01:00:35):
When's the Franzy Sprang fame.

Speaker 3 (01:00:37):
It's a twenty first straight season with a victory.

Speaker 4 (01:00:41):
For Stop Simpson.

Speaker 1 (01:00:43):
What a brilliant win.

Speaker 2 (01:00:46):
The Monday Morning Commentary Box on the Mic Hosking Breakfast
with Spears Finance, supporting Kiwi businesses with finance solutions for
over fifty years.

Speaker 3 (01:00:55):
Got Andrew Sevill and Jason Pine Lads, Good morning, morning,
sav What happened with the Rugby?

Speaker 11 (01:01:06):
Sav?

Speaker 3 (01:01:06):
Are you there? Piney? Are you there?

Speaker 11 (01:01:11):
I'm here? I think Sav's there?

Speaker 9 (01:01:13):
Is there there?

Speaker 10 (01:01:16):
There?

Speaker 16 (01:01:16):
We are?

Speaker 3 (01:01:16):
We can We'll ask you that quick. This has got
nothing to do with me. I know you're thinking, oh, yeah,
she is. She's just coming like hot, sitting in this
guy seat. It's all the Greblins, Sav, What happened with
the Rugby?

Speaker 4 (01:01:28):
Hello? Hello? Hello? Can you hear me?

Speaker 3 (01:01:30):
Yeah? I can hear you. Can you hear me? Piney?
Can you talk to me? Piney?

Speaker 11 (01:01:37):
Yeah? Shall we talk about what happened in the RUGGEDA?

Speaker 1 (01:01:39):
Do you know what?

Speaker 3 (01:01:39):
Pine what do you think? I think maybe we should
and we should just we should see if sav can
maybe join the world of the living with us. Piney
what happened in the rugby.

Speaker 11 (01:01:47):
Well, I think we all understand and expect that in
the first All Blacks tests of a year, things are
never going to be perfect. I think a lot of people,
in fact, the majority of us, underestimated just how good
France we're going to be. We talked about a France
B team, a France C team, disrespectful and things like that.
But they turned up, you know, they turned up and

(01:02:08):
really gave the All Blacks. They a bit of a fright.
They could have won the game.

Speaker 3 (01:02:11):
Really is it a case actually of what we need
to understand is that France has a depth of talent
within rugby kind of like we do. Right, we can
send a B squad somewhere in the world and actually
do a fair amount of damage and maybe the same
as true of them.

Speaker 11 (01:02:25):
Yeah, I think so. I think that's probably a fair assessment.
And you know, they're not a minnow, are they. They
are likely to have the depth that they displayed on
Saturday night. Well, I still think the All Blacks, you know,
you know, have more on the tank, but they've got
a bit to work on. They lost the aerial battle
on Saturday night. They were very clinical at the breakdown.

(01:02:47):
You know, defensively, letting in twenty seven points is not
something they'll be particularly proud of, so you're plenty to
work on. Eddy of the second test in Wellington on Saturday.

Speaker 3 (01:02:56):
Sav are you there now?

Speaker 4 (01:02:58):
Can you hear me now?

Speaker 14 (01:02:59):
Yeah?

Speaker 3 (01:02:59):
Will you coffin to let us know that you were there?

Speaker 16 (01:03:01):
Were you?

Speaker 7 (01:03:01):
Like?

Speaker 4 (01:03:02):
I just I just know. I just wanted to make sure. Yeah,
I wanted to make sure I had my say okay,
go for it. Look it was a win.

Speaker 21 (01:03:12):
And the line out and scrum went well, and and patches.
The All Blacks, with their fast paced, persistent game looked okay, but.

Speaker 4 (01:03:23):
The aerial game they lost. Some of the kicking was bizarre.

Speaker 21 (01:03:28):
Some of the kicking was aimless, and when they did
kick often there were no kick chases or the kickchases
were too flat. Yeah, so yeah, heaps to work on defensively.
There were some big holes at stages in that game
and also at the breakdown. The French played very hard
on the ball, They attacked the ball, they had the
ability to slow the All Blacks game down and patches,

(01:03:51):
so yet plenty to work on. You'd have to give
them another chance to impress a lot of those players
in the second Test in Wellington. But a couple of
fact an't willing to number one the weather, what's it
going to be like?

Speaker 4 (01:04:02):
It is winter? And secondly an English referee.

Speaker 3 (01:04:06):
Okay, give me a quick take on this sav What
do you think of Procter.

Speaker 21 (01:04:11):
I thought he did okay. I see there's some sort
of not consternation but criticism of his play. I think
he went okay. I think that the French defended stoutly obviously,
and just look at no matter who gets put into
a test team. Test match rugby is different to super rugby,

(01:04:33):
and I think there was a nassy ref right, but
he refereed that game quite differently as to how he
would normally referee Super rugby. And this is one of
the frustrations for rugby, not apart from the TMO coming
in quite often and a couple of times he shouldn't
have come in. The rules and the interpretation of the rules.
You can understand why some fans still scratch their heads

(01:04:54):
a lot while they're watching different competitions in different rugby games. Look,
the other thing is hither, yes this is a depleted
French team ten or fifteen years ago. If the French
had sent aside like that to New Zealand, the All
Blacks would have absolutely smoked them. I thought on Saturday
they should have won by thirty or forty points. Yeah,

(01:05:15):
if they've scored a couple more tries, maybe the floodgates
had have opened. The other point I want to make
is if the All Blacks took their best fifteen or
twenty players out of their squad and had no players
from their competition final all the Crusaders and the Chiefs,
and went to Paris, the All Blacks would get well beaten.

Speaker 3 (01:05:34):
So piney do we I'm loathed to say this because
I love Raiser, but do we have a problem.

Speaker 11 (01:05:40):
No, not at all. I don't think we have a problem.

Speaker 3 (01:05:43):
All the second shaky start in two seasons.

Speaker 11 (01:05:46):
Yeah, Like I say, every All Black season starts shakily.
I don't think we can we can say that. No,
we've got a problem with the coach. Absolutely not. I
mean Sam zanderal on a couple of really good points
around you know, the the relative strength of the two sides. No,
I don't think there's any issue here, and they were

(01:06:06):
very upfront yesterday. I had Jason Holland on my show,
Jason ryand and media razor after the game. They weren't
in any way shying away from the areas they need
to work on. Can I just make a point about
the TMO and in particular the third disallowed try, and
in fact all three TMO interventions that led to tries

(01:06:29):
being disallowed. Nick Berry on the field has a tremendous
view of all three incidents. He's one of the best
referees in the world. He has a great view of
Fletcher Yule's knock on, a great view of Billy Procter
forcing the ball over the line, and an excellent view
of Pasilio Toossi supposedly running interference and doesn't see anything

(01:06:51):
wrong in any of them. And look, I think the
third one is at best fifty to fifty so the
TMO intervention, there's got to be a better one, Oh mate,
then waiting It was three minutes from the time Will
Jordan put the ball down to when they started again.
Three minutes of inactivity. You can see why those who
who prefer rugby league use that sort of thing.

Speaker 3 (01:07:13):
Listen, I'm glad you raised it, because I'm sick of
raising it. I raise it so much I've become a
broken record, so I appreciate it. Okay, we'll take a break,
come back to you guys. Eight fourteen, The.

Speaker 2 (01:07:21):
Mic Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio, part by
News Talks at B brought.

Speaker 3 (01:07:28):
You back of the Commentary Box Andrew Seville and Jason Pinesett.

Speaker 2 (01:07:30):
On Monday Morning Commentary Box on the Mic Hosking Breakfast
with Spears Finance, supporting Kiwi businesses with finance solutions for
over fifty years.

Speaker 3 (01:07:39):
Sav Piney's had a winge about the TMO. Do you
want to have a winge about the AI at Wimbledon?

Speaker 21 (01:07:45):
Yeah, that's well. All this technology is being used in
tennis now. They even use it at the tournament here.
So are there any other actual human line judges at Wimbledon?

Speaker 11 (01:07:56):
I don't no, I don't know.

Speaker 4 (01:07:59):
I don't know there are no.

Speaker 3 (01:08:02):
The answer is no. From the experts in my.

Speaker 21 (01:08:04):
Ear, there's always look, there's always going to be you
don't see a lot of it, a lot of issues
with hawkeye whatever they call it these days.

Speaker 4 (01:08:11):
But I suppose there's always a risk of it, isn't it?

Speaker 3 (01:08:14):
I mean, is it? That's jeezav? I mean it missed
a ball out by a foot right. That's quite yeah,
that's quite bad, isn't it.

Speaker 4 (01:08:22):
I mean, what do you do you have human the
human eye.

Speaker 21 (01:08:24):
They hit the ball so hard these days, the human
eye would probably miss a lot more.

Speaker 4 (01:08:28):
I think, do you do well?

Speaker 3 (01:08:29):
The human I didn't miss that, which is why they
called it?

Speaker 18 (01:08:32):
Do you not?

Speaker 3 (01:08:32):
I mean, is the is the thing that maybe is
the problem? Because I don't have a problem with this,
this actually happening, but surely you have to test it
before you roll it out?

Speaker 11 (01:08:40):
Piney, Well, they must have done that. Hawkeye's been around
for ages, hasn't it In tennis, even when they do
have humans there as well. You you know, Hawkeye's been there,
And I actually think hawkeye, when it's done well, is
the best use of technology in sport? Is the ball in?
Is the ball out? Do you reckon?

Speaker 3 (01:08:58):
It's better than what they do with cricket.

Speaker 11 (01:09:01):
Well, no, cricket, I mean certainly with the with lb
w's it can be subjective runouts and runouts absolutely no
problem with that. That's the thing with technology and sport
when it's deciding something that's black and white. If we
look at a rugby example, has somebody put their foot
into touch or not that is something that you can
tell absolutely without you know, unequivocally, has that happens? Has

(01:09:25):
a ball gone and has a ball gone out? In tennis,
it's the it's when the TMO is relitigating subjective decisions
and I know we don't want to go back to
the rugby. That's when technology in sport crosses the line.

Speaker 21 (01:09:37):
No fair enough, the reliance on video technology I think's
got out of hand and a lot of sort moving
away from from wimbled and maybe back to the rugby.
But rugby's problem is there's so many gray areas that
you could you could you could slow down every ruck
and every game a rugby and give away a penalty
or a water penalty either way. So it is the

(01:10:00):
other thrush to just quick me back to the rugby
before we move on. The other frustrating thing for mine
is that there's a lot of experience in that All
Blacks team. This is not a young team. Yes they
had three or four new caps, but there's a huge
amount of experience. I don't know where the Piney can
confirm this, but when they went for that late penalty goal,
did they look to the sideline for a call?

Speaker 17 (01:10:18):
No?

Speaker 4 (01:10:18):
I think whether or not to kick it.

Speaker 11 (01:10:21):
Yeah, I think they made that decision on the field.
Well it's impossible to tell, sav, isn't it. They might
have got a not or a wink. But yeah, but
then there was another.

Speaker 4 (01:10:31):
Like we think they could make that decision themselves on
the field.

Speaker 11 (01:10:34):
Yeah, there was another one when Cody Taylor pointed to
the posts and they were going to take it and
Cam roy Gard picked up the ball and it and
went himself. So yeah, bit of confusion there, but yeah, no, yeah,
you're right. It's not a Green All Blacks team at.

Speaker 3 (01:10:48):
All, absolutely not.

Speaker 4 (01:10:49):
Sav.

Speaker 3 (01:10:50):
Listen, tell me, I can't keep quite keep track of
what's significant for Liam Lawson and what isn't. Is it
significant that he's knocked out in the first.

Speaker 21 (01:10:55):
Lap, Well, yeah, he was on a bit of a roll. Well,
he had that best fin his created in the last week.
So frustrating. That's what happens. The problem is when you
qualify down that low, that's there's a lot of dicey
traffic at the start and you're going to get caught
up in a lot of that stuff quite often, and

(01:11:16):
that's what's happened to him. Just purely bad luck and
unfortunately for him, that's motor racing.

Speaker 2 (01:11:21):
That that.

Speaker 21 (01:11:23):
I thought that may have been a turn in fortunes
last week with his luck, but it appears not.

Speaker 3 (01:11:28):
Yeah, we hope. So Hey, guys, it's wonderful to talk
to you. Thank you very much, and Piney, thank you
for preaching my language on that bloody TMO.

Speaker 4 (01:11:35):
Is that one quick Heather? You did do miss half
of it.

Speaker 3 (01:11:38):
That's because he might have muted us for a fair chunk.

Speaker 21 (01:11:41):
Hey, just a quick question for you and your listeners.
Do you think the South Africans were sitting back in
Pretoria or joe Berg and looking at the all Blacks
and going, hm.

Speaker 3 (01:11:51):
I do what do you think? No, well, well we
can take.

Speaker 4 (01:11:57):
Away they want to play.

Speaker 21 (01:11:58):
If that's the way they want to play against the Spring,
they'll have to get better obviously.

Speaker 1 (01:12:01):
Yeah.

Speaker 3 (01:12:01):
Yeah, lad's good to talk to you. Look after yourself.
We'll talk to you again next week. It's Andrew Savil,
Jason Pie and Commentary Box eight twenty one.

Speaker 2 (01:12:08):
Heather Duplicy Allen on the Mic Hosking Breakfast with the
land Rover, Discovery News Talks Dead be.

Speaker 3 (01:12:15):
Hey, are you the kind of business owner that does
a lot of talking about how great your services and
how amazing your product is. Well, it may be the case,
but here's a thought. If your business really is great,
make sure it looks great as well, because, let's face it,
first impressions can't we.

Speaker 4 (01:12:27):
All know that?

Speaker 3 (01:12:28):
And if your signage is looking a bit tired or
maybe worse, you don't have any signage at all, it
can make your business feel a little invisible and that
needs sorting, and it needs sorting fast.

Speaker 11 (01:12:37):
Now.

Speaker 3 (01:12:37):
Whether it's signs for your shop front, or graphics on
your windows, or a vehicle wrap that turns your car
into a moving ad, Speedy Signs can make you look
the part and look professional, and that's a game changer.
You look established, you look confident, You stand out from
the noise. Speedy Signs has been doing this for over
twenty five years. They've got nearly thirty locations across the country,
so they really know what they are doing. So cool,

(01:12:57):
Oh eight hundred speedy or check out speed co dot
z because your business deserves to look as good as
it really is.

Speaker 1 (01:13:05):
Ever do for see Allen morning Glenn.

Speaker 3 (01:13:09):
See you've got the interns in. I object on Andrew
Savile's behalf because it was him who muted it with
his cheeks. Heather, what about Tim Price is a fair point. Actually,
Tim Price and the equestrian team have won the Nation's
Cup for the second time, and Tim Price was the
individual winner in Germany of that particular little event, So
well done to them. Happy days. By the way, this

(01:13:31):
is for anybody in Auckland who hates Auckland Transport, which
is literally all of us, has lost its ability to
make policy from today. Counsel has taken the power back.
And any day that transport planners get defenestrated, especially the
weird ones, only the weird ones, some of them are good,
is a happy day for me.

Speaker 4 (01:13:46):
Now.

Speaker 3 (01:13:47):
I said to you earlier on, at twenty six past hour,
I said to you earlier on, I'm on a sleep deficit.
Guess how much sleep I got last night? One hour.
I'm working on one hour. I think, actually I think
I'm working on two hours because I don't know. Well,
it's complicated, but I don't know if you realize this,
But Mike gets in. Mike wakes up at two thirty
and gets in a quarter past three, And if you're

(01:14:09):
if you're filling in for Mike, you cannot be You
simply cannot be not doing that. So that's what I did.
But I did not get to sleep until quarter past
one this morning, and I, frankly, I don't know how
it's gonna I'll tell you the story about it later on, actually,
because you know, like a load shared is a load harved.
You know, like, if I tell you the story, I'm
going to feel better about the situation.

Speaker 15 (01:14:30):
Just here, you reckon.

Speaker 12 (01:14:31):
That applies though if you share it with people who
also didn't get very much sleep last.

Speaker 3 (01:14:35):
Night, Oh yeah, because then we can chat about it
with each other and make each other feel better. So
just you know, we'll talk about it, okay. Also, also
the guy who lost eleven and a half thousand dollars
and could have get back. You've got to hear the story.
Something needs to change here Hews his next.

Speaker 1 (01:14:57):
The only report you need to start your day.

Speaker 2 (01:15:00):
Heather duper c Allen on the MIC, asking breakfast with
Bailey's real Estate all together better across residential, commercial and
rural news tog sad B.

Speaker 3 (01:15:09):
Morning, Heather, I was at that Rugby game. The TMO
totally ruined the atmosphere at the ground. In my opinion,
what's the point of having the reef on the field, Proctor,
No try, I have no problem with the other two.
Just ruin the match for me. Cheers Hayden, Hey do
you make a fair point?

Speaker 4 (01:15:20):
Do you know what?

Speaker 3 (01:15:21):
Can I just say this though about the CMR. I
don't mind. I think the point that we're getting to
is it's totally fine that you've got the electronics involved, right,
and you've got people sitting up in boxes and AI
and hawkeye and snick snick whatever, you know, Like the
whole thing is fine. But the problem is where it
goes too far. And that is the problem with rugby.
It's that what's happened is you're not just looking at

(01:15:41):
the thing that just happened. You're going on. I didn't
find any problem in that rack. Let's go backwards. Oh look,
oh there's a pass. No no problem with the pass.
Oh let's go backwards. Oh look it's a kick, no
problem with Oh we found a problem. Yeah, Now we
can't award to try. It feels like fishing for problems.
And there you have the thing that's driving people nuts. Now,
if you want to know what's going on with the
property market, who do you look too, Tony Alexander every time?

(01:16:02):
Right man? Knows what he's talking about. He's got a
really good piece in one roof today, so go and
read this summary is basically buyers market all the way
through to twenty twenty six. He's done supply and demand
curves and is factor and a lot of stuff. It's
far too much for us to basically canvas here, so
you can go and get the detail. But what he
said is if you look, if you move the curves

(01:16:22):
around and stuff, look at what he's got higher turnover
and house construction. No clear signal than where prices are heading.
We know that prices have fallen for each of the
past three months to May. This is this year, and
his latest survey of real estate agents around the country
shows a net tw twenty six percent feel that price
is face downward pressure in the locations they work. And
so you've got net number of agents saying prices are

(01:16:44):
still going down, given them many comments from agents about
vendors who are still hung up on twenty twenty one,
price is still trying to chase that high. Expect the
buyer's market to continue until well into next year. Having
said that, it pays to be aware that the high
supply of property exists in the low to mid price
part the market, and once the economy is stronger, business profits,
better job security, higher salary increases, higher, the upper half

(01:17:06):
of the market could show some surprising strength next year.
So basically, at the entry level, still a buyer's market,
still a buyer's market for ages, but once you get
into those higher prices next year the business Heather do
for Sea Allen, Heather, I love your grit. Most others
would have called in sick. I don't think you can
call in sick for this. I did this to myself.

(01:17:27):
So what happened last Nightka, So the context as Mike
wakes up at two thirty. This is not normal. Okay,
it's not normal, but this is what you have to
do if you're going to come in and do Mike's show,
because you can't become in in your half fast, right.
The man's a legend, so you've got to at least
try try to match, right. So anyway, decided, right, okay, well,
if we're getting up at two thirty, let's go to

(01:17:48):
be at eight thirty. Right, let's turn the light out
at eight thirty. That gives you a solid six hours
sleep and then you can compensate with a little one
and a half hour nap during the day, and then
you're kind of getting up to eight hours, you know,
and you can sort of function a little bit anyway.
So eight thirty I turn the light out. Now, if
you've had children, right, if you've had children, you know
about the false start. The false start is what happens
when the baby goes to sleep too early or too late.

(01:18:11):
And that's what I did. I gave myself a false start.
So I nailed about an hour's sleep from eight thirty
to nine thirty. Then I woke up and I was like, right,
I'm awake, but it's nine thirty at night. What do
I do? So I lay there. I tried everything to
go back to sleep. I read part of Justinta's book.
I thought, that's sure fire, that's gonna put me to sleep.
Reading just in his book, you know about how she

(01:18:31):
feels about things and crying, and it's a lot of
crying in this part. I was like, oh, surely, no,
not even that put me to sleep. Thought I'll watch
a bit of Ship's Creek. Watched a few minutes that
just wound me up. So that didn't work. So I
got up and went to the bathroom, you know, like
just get up, walk a bit, you know, go back
to bed, rolled around by the stage. I have ripped
sheets like off the edges, like I'm tossing and turning

(01:18:51):
being a psycho. I put on white noise, like really
loudly rain. I thought, the rain's gonna make me go
to sleep. I did the trick that you're supposed to
do with words we do all the I did that
that didn't work in the end. At half past eleven.
What happened as I started panicking because I was already awake. Sorry,
so I'm now I'm panicking about the fact that I'm awake,
and I started to settle into the idea that I

(01:19:12):
was in fact going to come and do the show
with absolutely no sleep whatsoever. And this was starting to
get me very upset. So at half past eleven, I thought, right,
we're pulling it. We're going new clear on this. I
went downstairs and I got a beer. On a Sunday
night at half past eleven, I got a beer. I
took it up to the bathroom.

Speaker 12 (01:19:29):
Yes, yeah, it needs to be a nice heavy high
alcohol one too.

Speaker 3 (01:19:34):
It was not bad. It was like a five point five.
It wasn't as heavy as I needed, and it wasn't
even chill like I just so that you think like, oh,
we're dealing with alcoholic. Nothing about this was pleasant, although
that probably does make me an alcoholic. It was warm,
it was straight out of the cupboard. I opened it
up and I chopped it in about two minutes flat.
I thought, that's gonna put me to sleep. I lay there.
I lay there for two more hours. I listened to

(01:19:55):
somebody telling me to relax from my head too much.
She was so annoying I had to stop. Then I
had to listen to Balinese spa music. I think that
is what finally got to me there and I fell us.
Last I checked my watch was called past one, and
then next minute it was two thirty one hours awake.
So I think, actually, to be fair, I have probably
I'm probably on one plus one hour's two hours sleep.
My problem is now I'm going to go home. Now

(01:20:18):
you know what's going to happen. I'm going to crash,
and then I'm going to do what the babies do
as well, which is napple all day and we turn
our days into nights, and then we're going to do
this all tomorrow So, anyway.

Speaker 12 (01:20:27):
Did you want a bit of advice from an old
geezer who's been going through pretty much what You've just
stay awake all day every Sunday night, and it's always
worth and it's always worse when you're coming back from
holiday as well.

Speaker 15 (01:20:39):
Yeah, I think, ah, it's.

Speaker 12 (01:20:40):
Gonna be great. I'm gonna be so rested and I'm
going to feel like a new man when i go
to work tomorrow. And then it's always that night, that
first night before you go back to work that you
can So what's the tip? So the tip is don't
find out what time it is and don't look at
your watch. Don't look at your watch, so you don't
pack because it's at that point you're going, oh my god,

(01:21:02):
I'm only going to This is only going to be
an hour's sleep if I go to bed now. Whereas
you know, if you don't know, you don't know.

Speaker 3 (01:21:08):
But then you can't explain why you're a dud the
next day. At least I've got an excuse for all
of the mistakes I've made. But you know what, I'm
going to try. What can't hurt? Can it?

Speaker 7 (01:21:17):
Like?

Speaker 12 (01:21:18):
It's so hard a being on the radio, it is well,
it's such a hard job.

Speaker 3 (01:21:22):
It's really hard sitting here and talking.

Speaker 12 (01:21:24):
I mean you people out there doing your brain surgery
and your drain maindenance.

Speaker 3 (01:21:28):
And also probably on two hours sleep. Yeah, yeah it is.

Speaker 12 (01:21:32):
You don't know how easy you guys have got it.

Speaker 3 (01:21:34):
But I'm bearing everybody's weight right now. I'm telling everybody's story,
so you know the burden, the responsibility. It's a heavy shot.
It's a heavy thing on my shoulders. Sixteen away from nine.

Speaker 2 (01:21:45):
For the Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on. I have
radio powered by news Talks at b here.

Speaker 3 (01:21:52):
They just put the radio on. Marcus Lush will make
you sleep. Works for me, Thank you, Tresh. I suppose
so you've got a bed with a man. I suppose
like there's part that you know. The double helps, doesn't it. Heather,
put the air pods in and play Jeff Clarks and
works for me again, going to bed with the man, Heather,
the beer was a mistake. I drink a whiskey with
some chocolate. Look, can't hurt. Try something to do, Try

(01:22:13):
something different tonight.

Speaker 12 (01:22:14):
Just work your way through the liquor cabinet until you
fall asleep, until we.

Speaker 3 (01:22:17):
Find the thing that makes you sleep on the troublers.
Of course you hit the contro nick minute you at
the sugar in and then you're really in trouble. But
then again extra fire you all the way through to
tomorrow at six, do the show. It'll be a wild
but it'll be fun. And it's also a contrast because
I don't feel like Mike has ever come and drunk,
has he? So you know we missed the days of

(01:22:37):
Paul Anyway. I didn't say that out loud, did I?
But I did. Now you've got to hear the story
about the man who's losing money to the wrong bank
account right and can't get back, and you tell me
if the system works you, because this doesn't work for me.
So story starts in September twenty nineteen. This is wild,
by the way. Story starts in September twenty nineteen, guy
called Mark Graham gets a concussion in a moped accident.

(01:22:58):
It's relevant to this because in May twenty twenty, which
is what like nine months later or whatever. Eight months later,
he buys himself a pair of ski boots on Facebook
marketplace from a man, and so he pays the man
into the ASB ASB bank account and then he goes
to the Auckland CBD apartment to collect the ski boots,
and it's a woman, and he collects these happy days.

Speaker 7 (01:23:17):
Right.

Speaker 3 (01:23:18):
A few days go past and he sends out an
invoice for work. He sends out an invoice now to
get some money back for eleven and a half thousand
dollars for work that's been done accidentally. What he does, though,
because he's got the concussion, is he puts the wrong
bank account on the invoice. He doesn't put his bank
account on the invoice. He puts the bank account of
the person who he's paid for the ski boot ski boots,

(01:23:39):
so the people paying the invoice don't pay it to him, right,
Because he sees no money arrives in his bank account,
eventually figures it out. Oh no, they've paid the person
with the ski boots. They paid that account. So he figures, well,
I'll just I'll find out who's got this bank account
who the person isn't get my money back, he asked,
asb won't tell him, gets in touch with the Manny Bold,

(01:24:00):
the ski boots of man, deletes his Facebook account, hires
a private investigator. The private investigator identifies the man got
the right name. Goes to the disputes tribunal, wrong person,
same same name, wrong person. So now the case is
thrown out, gets the private investigator to do the job again,
gets the right guy this time, files new proceedings. Now

(01:24:20):
remember this is May twenty twenty. Now we're in February
twenty twenty one, when he's finally got the case. At
the dispute's tribunal. He wins. There's a civil enforcement order
that's made against the ski boot man for the money.
Right the man's car is seized to get the money back.
But the man gets a rehearing in June twenty twenty two,
So now we're two years into the problem. He gets

(01:24:41):
a rehearing. He says, it's not my bank account, it's
not my boots. I didn't get the money. Tribunal says, no,
it's actually true. You don't have to pay the money. Now, ASB,
can you help us? It can just give us the name, please, ASB.
So ASB. Finally, after a couple of weeks it's like, fine,
gives the name. It's not the man, it's the man's girlfriend,
the one who we turned up. We got the ski
boots from the lady it's her. Now. Finally we've got

(01:25:04):
the right name, we've got the email address. Mark Graham
writes to her and says, can you just give me
my money back. It's been a couple of years. I
need it. She ignores him, so he goes again to
the dispute's tribunal take some proceedings against her. It's now
October twenty twenty two. He wins, she's ordered to pay
it back. She goes, nah, she waits two years. We're
now in twenty twenty four, four years after this happened.

(01:25:25):
She goes for a rehearing. She admits, yeah, she got
the money, but she thought it was inheritance money, so
she's not going to pay it back. Months later, September
twenty twenty four, tribunal says, n you actually need to
pay it back. Money plus interest is now thirteen thousand dollars.
She has not paid a cent. Now this is mental,
isn't it that we're in this situation. Surely, surely, to God, surely,

(01:25:47):
to God, we can figure this out. There must be
a law about it, the whole thing. She cannot be
forced at the stage by anybody other than the dispute
tribunal to pay the money back and she just won't.
How crazy is that? Nine Away from nine.

Speaker 2 (01:25:58):
Heather Do for Sea Ellen on the mic, asking breakfast
with Bailey's real estate news dogs.

Speaker 3 (01:26:04):
They'd be oh, we might have got to the bottom
of what went on at Wimbledon. They've just apologized because
the electronic line calling thing was switched off accidentally.

Speaker 12 (01:26:13):
So that's sort of a Heathrow Airport fire.

Speaker 3 (01:26:16):
Scenario, is it. Yeah, that's that's unfortunate, isn't it when
you've got a I mean, it's not like Wimbledon. It's
a big deal in the tennis world. But maybe if
you if you keep that thing on, that's a good idea.
By the way, they're not putting the lion down. This
is the line that bit the lady's arm off yesterday
in Queensland at a zoo. They're saying the animal involved
was not an animal which is recently cubbed. The animal

(01:26:37):
will definitely not be put down or punished in any way,
which is fair enough because the animal wasn't doing anything.
It was he was in his home, She came in
legitimate food and the animal just acted like the animal
would have. So don't go into the lining closure obviously
six away from nine.

Speaker 2 (01:26:52):
Trending now warehouse your home of winter Essentials, Oh Missy.

Speaker 3 (01:27:00):
The mountain below. So in the music scene they seem
to place increasing stock on something hitting one billion streams,
and apparently the musicians do as well, because that is
why we are playing the song. This is Icy Fire
by Ed Sheeron. Most of you will know that this
is the song that Sharon wrote for The Hobbit The
Desolation of Spargg. So Sharon has made a post to

(01:27:22):
commemorate the fact that the song was written twelve years
ago this week and has just topped one billion streams.
And he said he was in Ibeetha when he woke
up to an email from Peter Jackson asking if he'd
come to New Zealand to record a song for the movie.
This is because Peter Jackson's daughter Katie thought Ed was
a bit of something something when it comes to music,
and he was on a flight that morning.

Speaker 16 (01:27:40):
Imagine how cool that is.

Speaker 3 (01:27:41):
Oh, I just went what am I doing today? Nothing
like go to New Zealand. He landed in New Zealand
got to see an early cut of the film so
he could write the song. It was the first song
he'd ever written, he'd ever written like that, solo, produced,
and then played every single instrument on ended up being
his first proper Useuropean hit and is still today, he says,

(01:28:01):
the song he's most recognized for. Find that quite surprising,
but it is so, Heather. Could you know what I
don't need to do? A warm bath or a shower, Massie.
I could just listen to this, I reckon. It's kind
of music to sleep, doesn't it. It's probably too early

(01:28:22):
in the morning to be like sending you off to sleep.
So anyway, melatonin and a hot bath, Margaret, thank you,
piece of toast with jam plus a small Cama mile tea.
That works for me. Heather, We've got babies exactly the
same age. My girl is doing the same thing. She
was awake from eleven thirty into one thirty. And you
fail to understand it's not my daughter at five and

(01:28:43):
a half months old that was behaving like the newborn.

Speaker 4 (01:28:46):
It was me.

Speaker 12 (01:28:49):
Did you just need changing?

Speaker 15 (01:28:50):
Maybe?

Speaker 4 (01:28:50):
I think.

Speaker 3 (01:28:53):
Nobody checked my navy or offered me a bottle of
milk that was the problem. You know what happens if
you don't check the navy and offer the bottom and
bottle of milk. They get up and they walk into
the pantry and crack a beer at eleven thirty.

Speaker 12 (01:29:03):
Maybe somebody just needs to put you over their shoulder
and pat you do.

Speaker 9 (01:29:08):
You know what.

Speaker 3 (01:29:09):
At one point, at one point of the deepest depths
of my despair, actually thought about calling my mum and
just be like, mom key, you just talk to me.
I think it'll make everything better. Anyway. Also thought about
calling the boss and telling him, but I thought I'll
do that, jeez, I'll be like, we can't let Mike
out of the building of it falls apart. Anyway, we
will see you tomorrow. You have yourself a lovely day,

(01:29:29):
Kirka to me, new Stalk, said bid.

Speaker 16 (01:29:42):
By.

Speaker 2 (01:29:53):
For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to
news talks it'd be from six am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio.