Full Show Podcast: 21 August 2025

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Your source of breaking news, Challenging Avillion and honored Facts,
The Mike Hosking Breakfast with Veda, Retirement Communities, Life Your
Way News, Togstad.

Speaker 2 (00:10):
B Awning, Welcome today. The Reserve Bank governor is twenty
five points and missing the Q two contraction completely. We'll
talk to theesas boss about our terror threat. More good
news from the Kiwi fruit Department. Nick Bryant, our old
mate's back for a Trump debrief after eight. Joe mckennon's
and Rome rod Little pops in from the UK pasking
seven past six right. Two things for me that came
out of the Reserve Bank commentary, the press conference post

(00:33):
the announcement should be a must watch for us. All
the insights invaluable. On one hand, the genius three who
turn up, Karen, Paul and Christian tell us what they've
done will flow through. In other words, don't panic, it
will flow through. I'll come back to that. But then
they tell you they got it wrong in Q two.
There was less than no growth in the second quarter.
They didn't see it, so bullish and their talents on

(00:54):
one hand, hopelessly wanting. On the other, the vote, by
the way, was four to two. That's never happened before.
Two votes wanted fifty. I want to know who they
are because they would appear to actually get it. What
the confession of no growth in Q two tells you
is if they had seen it, could they have done more.
Don't answer that because the answer is yes, yes, yes, yes, yes, yes,
and yes now because they botched it, they're going most

(01:15):
likely down to two point five percent now for the cashwak.
The other interesting thing for me is I'm a big
believer in psychology. The economy is about much more than
stats and data. It's about mood. It's the vibe. It's marbo.
They talked of the cautious nature of our behavior. I
would argue they are part of the problem. They look cautious,
they look circumspect. They look like wonks who don't get
out a lot, certainly don't get out into the real

(01:37):
world where the majority of us have been seeing the
records of our economy for most of the year. They
don't vibe it. They don't sell it. Which is not
to say they should be show ponies, But my word,
what a boring bunch they are with spreadsheets for friends.
This economy needs a cheerleader. It needs a significant impact
of influential and loud voice for its merits. Hawksby Silk
and Conway are not it. It should have been fifty.

(01:58):
It should have been fifty before yesterday because it wasn't.
The economy stalled and they didn't see it coming. Basically,
I mean, if you can't see that, how does that
incite confidence? For goodness sake? So at least two more cuts.
But why are we waiting? They will argue, because the
two hundred and fifty points will flow through, will they really?
We'll let the record show to this point we are

(02:20):
more right than they are.

Speaker 1 (02:22):
Who news of the world in ninety second.

Speaker 2 (02:25):
Lot of stuff going on in Britain as we speak.
Firstly the fallout yesterday's epping migrants hotel court decision reform
who have been making this their reason for being as stoked.

Speaker 3 (02:33):
The only way that people can feel truly safe in
this country, and the only way that we will get
a sense of fairness back in this country is through
deporting the people who are illegally and for that we
need a reform majority of the next general election.

Speaker 2 (02:48):
Other councilors have seen this and gone, How'll tell you what.
We'll have a bit of that.

Speaker 4 (02:51):
We decided that we would start seeking the same legal
advice in the pathway that epping has gone down. Our
families in Nello children in Nello's children need to go
to school. That is in packed in the schools massively
and impacting GP services.

Speaker 2 (03:04):
Are locals mixed about.

Speaker 5 (03:05):
They've got to go somewhere.

Speaker 6 (03:06):
They're in the country and they've got to be somewhere,
haven't they.

Speaker 7 (03:10):
We need to look after our own people.

Speaker 8 (03:12):
We know we need to save our own services.

Speaker 7 (03:14):
If we was in a position where we could help, well,
maybe we could.

Speaker 2 (03:17):
As far as the economy goes light as inflation numbers
were down.

Speaker 3 (03:20):
Our price rises are disappointing for everybody.

Speaker 7 (03:23):
We've seen energy prices come down in July, but they're
still too high.

Speaker 3 (03:26):
That's why it's so important that we keep easing the
cost of living, keep acting on that.

Speaker 2 (03:30):
They also get an accoun from the Russians, who banned
another bunch of NGOs in June.

Speaker 9 (03:34):
Response to London's ongoing confrontational course, the Russian Foreign Ministry said,
which includes efforts to demonize our country, fabricating anti Russian narratives,
pumping weapons into the neo Nazi regime, in.

Speaker 2 (03:49):
Ki, then starts out the redistributing of Texas unfolding as
we speak.

Speaker 10 (03:54):
You want transparency, here's the US Supreme Court legal transparency.
The underlying goal of this plan is straightforward improve Republican
political performance.

Speaker 2 (04:10):
Finally, also stayed side. Elon Musk has called off his
plans to create a third major US political party. No
predical who saw that coming. The American Party was a
thing for less than about three months, and mainly it
was in his head. It came out of the Trump
Musk love and ending in tears. He's told people he
wants to focus more on this business. That'll be quite useful.
He doesn't want to split votes. Could have told them

(04:31):
that on day one. And he wants to maintain his
relationship with JD. Vance. You know why hashtag twenty twenty
eight are that's news of the world in ninety Yeah,
those numbers in Britain they were dreadful three point eight.
I mean they're chasing the Bank of England chasing two percent.
So it was a fas and food three point eight,
nowhere near it. In Japan didn't had a good day yesterday.
Their exports down two zero point six percent year on year,

(04:51):
that's the biggest drop in several years. So they got
some problems that there's a possibility some people suggesting the
possibility there of a recession. Twelve past secon.

Speaker 1 (05:01):
The Mike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talks EBB.

Speaker 2 (05:10):
You're following the latest corporate shakedown. This is Intel. The
Trump administration working on a deal that could see their
government taking a ten percent stake in Intel, swapping existing
government grants for Intel shares in what they call a
highly unusual move. So first it's in video. Now it's Intel.
Fifteen past six from I'm Jimi Wealth Andrew Keller her

(05:31):
good morning. So what do you make of yesterday?

Speaker 8 (05:37):
Well, it was interesting.

Speaker 2 (05:38):
Wasn't it.

Speaker 11 (05:39):
I thought it was described as as a dubbish pivot,
but it felt a bit more pronounced than that, didn't it.

Speaker 8 (05:45):
So yeah, for at the headline app from very much expected.

Speaker 11 (05:48):
They dropped the official cash right to three percent, But
it was the big shift in the background and in
the positioning starts of the bank that I think stole
the show. So Mike, just let's just refresh this last
two meetings.

Speaker 2 (05:59):
What have we had.

Speaker 11 (06:00):
We've had a pause and we had a twenty five
basis point cup, with one member of the committee not
agreeing in the OCR bottoming out just under three percent. Well,
now we've got the OCR bottoming out at two and
a half percent approximately, and a massive change in tone.

Speaker 2 (06:14):
And I don't want to highlight a couple of things.

Speaker 11 (06:16):
We haven't got long enough to go into the whole thing,
but I want to highlight a couple of things now.
It's not where inflation is now. That comes through in
the statement, and even the Bank says that monetary policy
right now can't do anything about inflation in the September
qorder right now.

Speaker 2 (06:32):
What this is about, it's.

Speaker 11 (06:33):
About spare capacity in the economy because despite the short
term inflation pressure, significant spare capacity continues to reduce.

Speaker 2 (06:42):
Domestic price pressures.

Speaker 11 (06:43):
That's their words, exactly so, and that's described as being
one of the key judgments here. So the market interest
rate market really picked up on two things. The change
in the OCR track so that two and a half
percent by the end of this year or early next year.
And what you've just referred to the somory of the
meeting voting revealed they had two options on the table.
One was a twenty five basis point cut, one was

(07:06):
a fifty basis point cut, and two members voted for
the fifty basis point cut. Also, Mike, I want to
point out something else. The comments in the NPS reflected.
There were some comments that reflect a conversation we had
the other day. Certain aspects of spending described in the
document as essential expenditure components food, gas, electricity rates. Oh, surprise, surprise, Mike,

(07:28):
they've gone up by more than inflation. And that's one
of the factors that are going to contribute to a
slower recovery in domestic spending.

Speaker 8 (07:36):
And that's exactly what we've.

Speaker 11 (07:37):
Seen this here, hasn't it a slow recovery in domestic spending?
Let me translate this.

Speaker 8 (07:41):
You get a boost in your household income from lower.

Speaker 11 (07:43):
Mortgage rates, but it partially has to go to the
fact that these essential items have all gone up, so
you got no money left for anything else. So you
add to that a week of labor market so people
are working for you. Ours saw that in the neighbor
lembers the other day. Household to savings and what have
you got? You've got a slow recovery. Now you pointed
out growth of the second quarter estimated to now be
negative negative impact of slow and migration.

Speaker 8 (08:05):
And there's also might in there.

Speaker 11 (08:06):
There's a box in the monetary policy statement about business visits.
They actually went out and they spoke to some people.
I think the feedback they got from those could have
been quite influential.

Speaker 8 (08:16):
In other words, people will say.

Speaker 2 (08:18):
Jesus, not that great out there? Was it all mean?

Speaker 7 (08:21):
Well?

Speaker 2 (08:21):
Wholestle interest rates dropped low.

Speaker 11 (08:22):
Mike' swap rates one to two years around seventeen bases
points low.

Speaker 2 (08:26):
That's a big move in that market.

Speaker 8 (08:27):
Long rates a little less.

Speaker 11 (08:29):
Should feed through to mortgage rates should key We doll
it down sharply fifty nine cents when we spoke yesterday
fifty eight to thirty Shaer market liked it. Also rates
that going to be low for longer. Look, there's other
aspects we don't have time to talk about, Mike. The
fact that they noted that monetary policy can only do
so much work. There's a nod to the government there.
There's still uncertainty out there. They're trying to lift confidence.

(08:51):
But fascinating day was so it.

Speaker 2 (08:54):
Was disappointing and fascinating at the same time. Are you
and I going to be alive when Fletcher's come to
the departing and go, Jesus, it's been a good year.

Speaker 11 (09:01):
We've we've got if we get that, we've got We've
got the pop Champagne cooks, haven't we?

Speaker 7 (09:06):
So yeah.

Speaker 8 (09:06):
Fletcher Building FY twenty five results.

Speaker 2 (09:08):
Two things.

Speaker 11 (09:09):
I guess the results including significant items was pretty grim.
And then you've got to sift through to have a
look at the underlying profit. Take those big numbers out.
Revenue down nine percent, earning s threunder and eighty four
million looks weak. That reflects construction and you know, and
the operating environment. The significant items were well micd they
were significant, seven hundred and two million dollars worth of

(09:33):
significant net loss of four hundred and ninety million. The
year described as being the most one of the most
demanding years in recent memory. The result was slightly ahead
of guidance when you look through the underlying level costs
of being reduced.

Speaker 2 (09:44):
Looking for a.

Speaker 11 (09:44):
Sale of construction business, no detailed forward guidance. Yeah, but
New Zealand volumes expect to be soft through the rest
of the Australia.

Speaker 2 (09:52):
Better than mixing. Yes, we all long for a day
the Fletcher.

Speaker 11 (09:54):
Building can announce a result without significant items.

Speaker 2 (09:57):
I would ask you about that bark, but I don't
want to be any all depressed. Just get just give
me the numbers.

Speaker 8 (10:02):
I'll give you the numbers.

Speaker 2 (10:03):
Here we go.

Speaker 8 (10:04):
The US market's a little bit weak, actually.

Speaker 11 (10:06):
The Dow Jones is down as I'm looking at it now,
it's down one hundred and two points point two two
percent forty four thousand, eight hundred and twenty two. The
S and P five hundred down thirty three points sixty
three seven seven, about half percent. The Nasdak down more.
There's a bit of rotation out of tech and into
other things. The Nastak's down one point two percent twenty

(10:27):
one thousand and fifty eight for two one hundred game
one percent yesterday, Happy Days are nine to eight eight.

Speaker 2 (10:32):
The Nike A You're not great.

Speaker 11 (10:34):
They're down one and a half percent, six hundred and
fifty seven points forty two thousand, eight hundred and eighty eight.
Shanka Composite up one percent, three seven sixty six. The
Aussie's game quarter percent yesterday eight nine one seven. As
I said, ends next fifty loved it up one point
one percent one hundred and forty three points thirteen thousand
and seventy one key we doll a weaker point five
eight three two against the US point nine oh six

(10:54):
so against the OSSI point four nine nine nine against
the Euro point four to three three one pounds eighty
five point seventy nine Japanese yeen gold three three hundred
and forty six dollars breakthrough sixty six dollars and eighty cents.

Speaker 2 (11:07):
Big day, Good on your mate, see tomorrow. Andrew kellahead
jomowalth dot co dot m zre Go. Sony's putting another
fifty bucks on their PlayStation five only in America. And
you know why, mind you? PopMart? Who are the people
behind the labubus they've pronounced there isn't it? Isn't it ironic
that we've got no money for butter, but we've got
money for labuobas. Popmart's net profits sword three hundred and

(11:29):
ninety six point five percent for the first six months
of twenty twenty five six twenty one.

Speaker 7 (11:35):
You're a News Talks.

Speaker 1 (11:39):
Good the Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio
powered by News Talks It.

Speaker 2 (11:46):
Be Morning, Mike. You totally on the mark in relation
to the ineptness of the Reserve Bank. They've got a
history over the last five years of being woefully inadequate
as to monetary policy. The words of Adrian All saying
we've got this resonates strongly with me. Nothing could be
further from the tooth. Thank you James. The RB. Mike
is realized that interest rate cuts might not be enough
to kickstart the economy. There's novous supply of houses for sale,

(12:07):
so the housing market is not rising. Therefore everyone feels skinned.
That's true. Very interesting comments yesterday from them. They were wondering,
they don't have an answer. They were wondering how capable
New Zealand is of spending money. If we're not sitting
there in our houses going to tell you what, we
feel a bit better about ourselves. So if the housing
market doesn't move, can the economy grow simply by having

(12:31):
the fundamentals grow. I thought it was an interesting thing
to contemplate, because it might well be the housing market
isn't going to grow that much.

Speaker 7 (12:37):
Mike.

Speaker 2 (12:38):
We're in the marine industry. I can tell you we've
been surviving on the aqua lung. Hope to move to
the snorkel soon and maybe get our head above water
by next year, if we haven't drowned first. It's very
nicely pott interesting. Also the four to two thing they
can out themselves, stupidest rule going. If you're having the
declaration of the vote four to two, who are they?

(13:00):
And why don't they come forward? And why don't we
simply have a you know, Bob and Jane voted four
fifty while the other two voter for twenty five? Why
do I want to do? That's? Why are they? What
are they're scared of? Don't they believe what they're saying? Anyway,
I'll ask Christiana about that latest six twenty five.

Speaker 1 (13:14):
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Speaker 2 (13:19):
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(13:41):
I'm looking for someone common story around here, someone you
care about her, someone you hate. Oh what a great question.
What's seeing you, miss McLay.

Speaker 12 (13:54):
I know there's a war coming. The bombs will only
be the beginning. My concern is that you would do
just about anything deceive your family. I think you are
actually quite a violent man. You just don't want to

(14:14):
kill me yet.

Speaker 2 (14:20):
I'd deferred to you about what to do in this situation.
So Ella Peranella's back, along with Walton Goggins. I think
we all like Walton Goggins now because of you know what.
And we've got a new character called Robert House played
by Justin Throw. Remember Justin Threw, Justin and Old Watson.
I saw the promo. They put out an extended promo
this morning from the Morning Show, Jennifer Anderston being the

(14:42):
you know who. It looks so woke. I started out
season one was good. By now it is like, oh
my god. Anyway, Amazon Prime for the other one December seventeen.
You shortly then we'll give them. How about we go
to the dentist next time?

Speaker 1 (15:01):
The News and the newsmakers the Mic asking Breakfast with
Raindrover leading by example. News togs dead been.

Speaker 2 (15:09):
Maloney's take on Washington is very positive, although she too
got spring by a hot mic moment. So we'll talk
to Joe short They meantime of twenty three away from
seven New Day, New idea for dentist Freed. The Dental
Associations launching their new roadmap with a call through action. Basically,
the focus is on floridation, drink levies, work for Sure,
workforce shortages, and universal care. Doctor Robin Wyman is the

(15:30):
Dental Association policy director. In his back with us, Robin morning,
good morning, Wake. You've got such a hard road of
ho haven't you. I mean, we've talked about this a
million times over the years, and do you feel like
you're gaining anything tangibly over the years.

Speaker 13 (15:46):
Well, we do think we're making some gains. I think
we've had a very good gain in terms of coverage
for community water floridation in the last four or five years.
That's extended from about fifty percent to sixty percent. And
we've also seen an increase in the funding available for
special needs grants for adults who are eligible for that
from working income New Zealand. But to be honest, Mike,

(16:07):
we need to do a whole lot more.

Speaker 2 (16:08):
Yes, you do, and I wish you wouldn't. I wish
you well with it. There's a couple of things. There's
so fluoridation. What do you make of the councilors who
push back. So Bloomfield before he left and Savati these
days goes you've got to fluoridate and they push back.
Councils push back, what do you make of that?

Speaker 13 (16:24):
We think that we had always thought that the problem
with trying to make that decision at a local government
level is it's quite a controversial and at times complex
issue which requires weighing up health issues with cost issues
and technical issues. And that's why we think it's really
a public health decision that needs to be made, and
we think the decision making is in the right place.

Speaker 7 (16:43):
All right.

Speaker 2 (16:44):
So the couple of things you're never going to win
on as far as I can work out that your
levees they're not coming, and universal care isn't coming either.
Is that fair? As much as you may want them,
and as much as you may argue they're good, they
don't appear to be coming at the moment.

Speaker 13 (16:57):
We would say that the levee on sugar or sugary
drinks is something that we need to work a whole
lot harder on if we're going to see change. But
we also look at other countries that are not too
far away in terms of the way they run themselves,
like the UK, who've seen a big gain from that,
and so we will continue to talk about that. When
we're talking about universal care, we talk about universal health coverage,

(17:20):
and that isn't actually about universal free care. What that's
talking about is saying it's important that we make sure
that care is universally accessible, but that we target and
identify the groups where we would best spend our money
to improve coverage and access to care, both in terms
of need and groups who are finding it hardest to
access care, and that's where we think we should put

(17:43):
the priorities.

Speaker 2 (17:44):
I've never had a problem getting a dentist, and I've
changed dentists a number of times, and I'm at the
dentists quite a bit. So is there a workforce shortage
in that GP ish kind of way or not.

Speaker 13 (17:56):
It's similar to the GP issue in some ways. We
have a big distribution problem. So if you look at
the map of where dentists are in the country, in
the big urban centers, particularly Auckland and West Auckland and
North North Shore. Very good coverage of dentists in those areas.
But once you start to get to provincial New Zealand,
even South Auckland, but some quite large areas of provincial

(18:19):
New Zealand, even Taranaki, we have very low numbers of
dentists for the population and so provincial and rural New
Zealand is not finding it is easy to get access
to a dentist.

Speaker 2 (18:30):
We're sure the best with a campaign Robin wym At
doctor Robin Wyman, New Zealand Dental Association with US. I
don't know. It's not all bad on the economy. By
the way, We've got very good news from the Kubu fruit,
so we'll go to that in the next half our
twenty two.

Speaker 1 (18:41):
The Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio, cowered
by News Talks.

Speaker 2 (18:46):
AB now Daffodil Bay just around the corner. It's Friday week,
Tomorrow week, August twenty nine. Chants for us all to
support the one in three New Zealand is affected by cancer.
This way A and Z By the way, very proud
partner of the Cancer Society thirty five years and counting
stands with our community and supporting this very important issue.
So this Daffodil Day, your donation's going to help provide

(19:07):
vital care, transport to treatment, nurses, accommodation, counseling, all the
good stuff. It also supports prevention programs and research helping
improve the outcomes for future generation. So you wear the yellow,
you buy the daffodil, You show you your support. The
good looking ones. This year, you know some of years.
This year is a very good looking daffodil. Anyway, you
can go one step further if you want to make
it a nation, because every daffodil, every dollar, every little

(19:28):
bit of kindness counts. It's about care, it's about hope,
it's about standing with those who need it most. So
to make it count, your text, donate the word, Donate
the word so donat Text that to three four nine
three and you'll make an instant three dollars the nation
to the Cancer Society. ASKI my so far too expensive
for my dental work? My wife needs four fellings, one

(19:50):
crown and dentches. It's a lot of work. Scotti eighty
five hundred dollars. I got to say I'm no real expert,
but no, a bit about four fillings one crown and
dentches for eighty five hundred dollars not bare. I mean,
you know, I know it's a lot of money, but
it's not bad. But then again, if it's too expensive
for you, who do you expect to pay? For goodness sake? Mike?
While a bigger rate cut is needed to bring down

(20:11):
mortgage rates, the government needs to bring in the council
rate cap immediately. Couldn't agree. More so when Hawksby talks about,
you know, inflation's falling? Inflation?

Speaker 14 (20:17):
Is it?

Speaker 2 (20:18):
Honestly? Where two point seven and rising? Probably breaching three?
And he's saying it will come down? How because the
drivers of it, the insurance, the rates, the power. Are
they going to be coming down as all of a sudden,
your council instead of sending you the bill for twelve
this year, it's going to be one next year, is it?

Speaker 13 (20:35):
No?

Speaker 2 (20:37):
So where's the inflation vanishing?

Speaker 1 (20:38):
To six forty five International correspondence quid ends an eye
insurance peace of mind for New Zealand business.

Speaker 2 (20:45):
They're Italy join McKenna, very good morning to you.

Speaker 15 (20:48):
Good morning, Mike. I see it's for Chilian Auckland this morning.

Speaker 2 (20:51):
Will you say that? But why, I was talking to
my glorious wife yesterday, and we've had the best winter.
We've had clear blue sky days. And I mean, I'm
sitting here talking to you in our six degrees A
six degrees called for you? Is that kind stop the world?
It's not chilly. I mean, it's a little bit. She
is not bad. But anyway, maloney, she's she feels pretty
good about Washington.

Speaker 15 (21:12):
Yes, I think she's on a bit of a high.
She's gone on vacation, but I think she was looking
very triumphant and posting lots of images of herself presenting
I thought was a very impressive discourse there in Washington
in English. But she's getting into a bit of trouble
because she's been avoiding the media as usual. And she
made an off my comment saying that President Trump obviously

(21:36):
loves the media, loves talking, and she, on the contrary,
never wants to talk to the press.

Speaker 2 (21:43):
How are we work in your cage. We've got a
great access to the Prime minister in most top politicians
on a regular basis. Does she do a weekly thing
or you never hear from her or what not?

Speaker 15 (21:54):
At all. In fact, since she's coming up to her
third anniversary as Prime Minister now, she's never done a
press conference at the Foreign Press Club. She rarely does
any kind of press with the Italian media unless there's
usually a visiting head of stage or a leader in town.

Speaker 2 (22:09):
Does she do any one on ones.

Speaker 15 (22:12):
Very rarely. I mean occasionally with the Financial Times from
the UK, I think, and maybe the BBC.

Speaker 2 (22:18):
And what's your problem? Is she no good or she
just hates everybody?

Speaker 15 (22:23):
I think it's just a strategy that, like many leaders now,
feel that they can use social media to bypass the
mainstream media and just plant stories.

Speaker 2 (22:32):
So she's tweeting out and doing all that stuff on
a regular base, showing a lot of that. Okay, fair enough.
So these flatmates that Leo's having, how's this going to work?

Speaker 15 (22:42):
So Leo, unlike Pope Francis, is going to move into
the historic papal apartments they're overlooking St. Peter's Square at
the Vatican. Those apartments are currently being redesigned. But what
we learned this week is it looks like he's going
to be inviting a few friends to stay there with him.
Now I say friends, but they're going to be fraternal

(23:04):
mates from his Augustinian order, and he could have three
or four people actually accommodated there in that apartment with him,
like a.

Speaker 2 (23:12):
Little what's going on there too?

Speaker 7 (23:16):
Weird?

Speaker 2 (23:17):
Did you see the movie Conclave?

Speaker 15 (23:20):
I did?

Speaker 7 (23:21):
Right?

Speaker 2 (23:21):
Those marble walls in their rooms where they come for
the conclave and they stay in those rooms with the
bed and the water. Is that real?

Speaker 15 (23:30):
I think it was based on Saint Martin the residents
where the cardinals stay and where Pope Francis lived before.

Speaker 2 (23:37):
He died, because that's a tremendous amount of marble, isn't it.

Speaker 10 (23:44):
Now?

Speaker 2 (23:44):
Milani Milani Airport? So what was he doing? What was
he a nutta? What happened?

Speaker 15 (23:50):
Yeah, a bit of a nut. I went on a
rampage today, threatening airport staff, smashing screens and even started
a fire in the departures area of the terminal. So
people acted very quickly, calling emergency staff to come in
and grab the man and detain him. But he does
come from Mali, he does have a legal permit to

(24:11):
be in Italy. But as you can imagine, it's promoted
provoked a very big reaction from the far right today,
is saying that we shouldn't have migrants running around our airports.

Speaker 2 (24:20):
Weather forecast, Joe, what's going on?

Speaker 15 (24:24):
It hot and sticky, but around thirty two degrees I
think in the next few days.

Speaker 2 (24:29):
That's not bad. You're feeling like, is it tailing off
the high end of summer or not? Not quite.

Speaker 15 (24:34):
We've got another surge, I think. But by the way,
I've heard that the dental dentists are very cheap in
Ukraine right now?

Speaker 2 (24:40):
Yeh, I bit you, I bet you they are. Do
you have access to it?

Speaker 5 (24:43):
Is?

Speaker 2 (24:43):
What do you pay to go to that? I always
remember going with my nephew to the dentist and my
sister was just wailing and gnashing her teeth no pun
intended at the price and stuff. Is that a thing
in Italy?

Speaker 15 (24:53):
There are some very good dentists here, But I have
a Ukrainian cleaner and she keeps telling it's much cheaper
in Ukraine.

Speaker 2 (25:00):
I'm not surprised. Nice to see you, Joe McKenna in Rome,
little slash of itdly morning, Mike. If you and Kate
we are trying a new dentist, go look up Ashley Hawlett.
She owns Ponsonbye Teeth, all the latest gear pain is
not a word in her vocabulary. Thank you, Genny. The
only reason I read that out. I probably shouldn't have
read that out because Ashley how it's probably going to
be inundated with people now.

Speaker 5 (25:19):
I mean, if all we know it was from Ashley.

Speaker 2 (25:20):
It could be from Ashley. I went to a new
hyghgienus the other day, and my god, I so wanted
to come on the radio and tell you about it,
but I can't because she's just a sole operator and
she's doing her own thing, and she's gone out on
her own and I love supporting people who start their
own businesses. But the equipment she's got is next level.
You know, when you've been doing something your whole life

(25:43):
and you don't realize what you've been missing out on.
And it's like cars. So when you start out in life,
you know, you buy a crappy little car, and you
don't know how good a great car is until you
drive a great Caraen. Once you drive a great car,
you realize how crappy you've been beforehand. This woman has
got this equipment you've never seen, but it's just like
it is her.

Speaker 16 (26:00):
She's got a V twelve drill.

Speaker 2 (26:02):
She's got such She she I won't bore you with it,
and I can't tell you who it is because she's
you'll choose me.

Speaker 1 (26:09):
So she's she's a hygiene She's got a standalone hygenius.

Speaker 2 (26:12):
Exactly, She's got a standalone hy genius business. And God,
God bless her for doing it, she said. The dentist
to hating it. I'm not surprised, but the equipment she
pulled out, and she said, at the end of it,
she says, I've used every bit I've got on you,
and it felt like it and I felt I've never
felt better about my mouth than the day I left her.

(26:32):
And so I wish I could tell you who it is,
but I can't. Soz nine minutes away from seven.

Speaker 1 (26:36):
The mic Hosking Breakfast with Bailey's real estate news dogs.

Speaker 2 (26:40):
The shittle down your Lot, text me the hygienius detail
on this. I'm not the mathia for all you asking
for how much money? Thirty three thousand dollars. First person
who gives me thirty three thousand dollars, I'll give it
to a charity. Don't worry, I'll give you the name.
By the way. The Peter's thing on the COVID inquiry.
This is interesting. I should have thought this through and
I clearly wasn't awake enough. We went to office. So

(27:00):
the question being from politics Wednesday yesterday, how come Winston
isn't dragged in? So we go to Brooks office. Peters
has said he's more than happy to go. Apparently, go
to Brooks office. It's independent the Royal Commission and the
Minister has no influence over who's called. Royal Commission has
had the ability to decide which decision makers they would
ask the front without being told of the government, so

(27:21):
that's fair. So they decided they'd like to hear from Adurn,
Hopkins etc. They do have the power to subpoena them.
They're not using it. Big mistake. I'd love to know
Illingworth's not talking. I'd love to know why he doesn't
think Winston's relevant, But that will be a question I
will not forget and he will turn up eventually and
he will be grilled Five away from seven well In

(27:43):
and the Ouse.

Speaker 1 (27:44):
It's the fizz with business Timer take your business productivity
to the next level.

Speaker 2 (27:49):
Gringpoot Time Inframetrics Quarterly Economic Monitor. We love this. Of
all the things I do on this program in terms
of monitors, and I think this is one of my favorites.
The recovery is on the recovery. This will be please
Christian will be nervous about coming on the show at
seven thirty of games Saints for recoveries on ha ha.
I gonna tell Hoskins town stick it up them. Activity
rose zero point six percent for the quarter, a promising
sign considering the average over the last has been niggad

(28:11):
of zero point eight. We heard all about that yesterday.
The rural sector big reason for the economic activity, no
ketting one point seven up. The metro area is just
up zero point five. But I'll break that down for
you because that's ugly held back by a weak construction.
They've lost jobs galore, They're losing money, they're closing down.
Public sector has not been flashed. Professional service is not

(28:33):
good either. Meat, hort and seafood. They're holding up. They're
not growing that. They're holding South is booming as usual again.
Every South Island region pretty much is growing faster than
the national average. A Targo's you stand out. I mean
that's Central Otago, really, isn't it? Less be Frank up
two percent for the quarter. Are the bright spots for
the North Island? Do I see any bright spots in

(28:54):
the North Island? Why Katto come on in Bay of Plenty,
come on in both? Up one percent, which is better
than nothing. It's god, it's a kneemick, isn't it. I
mean when you're talking on one percent. Southland only reached
into record employment growth up zero point two percent. Well
that's the farming of course, Wellington down. See this is
the metros Wellington down three point one and more importantly,

(29:17):
Auckland down two point one two point one percent of
a market the size of Auckland. That's the damage, that's
the problem. That's why everyone's so damn grumpy. In fact,
there are eighteen thousand fewer jobs in Auckland than there
were a year ago, So constructions lost sixteen thousand and
oh the two might be partially tied up, but eighteen
thousand in Auckland alone six point one percent unemployment rked

(29:37):
on from four point something. No wonder Simon Bridges is
going Can you please help help the risk? The SIS
had done this report? How about those weirdos online threatening us?
How many weirdos are out there threatening us? And are
they real? Do we take them seriously? We will talk
to the head of the sis and just a couple
of moments.

Speaker 1 (29:59):
The only report you need to start your day the
mic costing breakfast with Bailey's real estate all together better
across residential, commercial and rural news.

Speaker 2 (30:09):
Togs had b folling seven past seven, so of Christian
and has a bunch of merry travelers who delivered more
interesting news than we thought. Yes, twenty five points, but
for the first time you have a four to two vote.
More importantly, they missed the Q two contraction and as
a result we're most likely to get two more cuts
before Christmas. Adrian big b is the MD of lending
company prosper Enders with US. Adrian, good morning, Good morning mate.
Did you get a lot of confidence out of them

(30:29):
yesterday or not?

Speaker 5 (30:31):
Oh, I understand. I think everyone's expecting the twenty five points.
Some people were hoping. I'm fifty, but twenty five points
will do for now. It does help a lot. Do
you know that our New Zealand interest rates we were
forty seven percent higher at the peak of the increase
in the rates than we were pre COVID. It's a
huge amount out of people's pockets. It's a huge amount
of people to be able to spend and go out

(30:52):
and to help the economy.

Speaker 2 (30:53):
Exactly what why are we in a funk?

Speaker 5 (30:56):
Why are we in a funk? It's interesting, isn't it.
I listened to your shell all the time. I loved
luxtions quote the other day actually when you were talking
to them about turning the ship around or getting this
getting the car out of a ditch and turning, turning
the economy around. So that takes a long time. The
economy stall. So that comes out of we come out
of the recession, we come out of COVID, and that
this impacts everyone's pocket The rates go out, the people's

(31:19):
value in their houses go down, so that impacts confidence.
Confidence drives so much in the economy.

Speaker 2 (31:25):
Do people want money at the moment? Is there a
sense of eye can take a risk or not?

Speaker 5 (31:30):
When it comes to business lending and starting, we see
it in our data. So we are kind of the
canary and in the mind because we are leading to
the small businesses. So when we're leading too small businesses.
The key data point that I watch is the approval
to settlement, so that shows that businesses are actually confident
to take the money, so the confidence take the money
and the use of funds as well, so we watch

(31:51):
the use of funds. The thing that was really interesting
with when the budget come out with that investment boost
that they came out with, So we saw an initial
intake taking money to invest in their businesses. So that
has continued. But as the confidence is returning and people
have money to spend, that helps them to get more
confidence to be able to invest in their business. So
we've seen that in our data now good.

Speaker 2 (32:12):
So what Christian said yesterday broadly, as things are ish
coming right, they will continue to come right. By twenty
twenty six. He sees some form of normality. You would
agree with.

Speaker 5 (32:21):
That, yes, we would. Everyone was hoping that you get
to thrive, to survive to twenty five or then thrive
in twenty five, but people are looking forward to twenty six.
So I think getting through the end of this year,
there's still a lot of pain out there. That's still
some tough, tough things to do, but it is improving.
And when you see that those data points to start
to improve, then that gives my business confidence as well

(32:44):
as our customers to be able to move forward and
to really start growing good stuff.

Speaker 2 (32:48):
I Adriam appreciate time very much. Adrian Bigbie, who's the
managing director of TROST with Morning Mike our Homeland, is
currently on floating any advice on when to fix and
how long? Yes, I do stand by ten minutes past
seven flask insight meantime. Though from the SIS into our
terror threat, terror attack remains realistic possibility due to the
old favorites of geopolitical uncertainty and online radicals. Andrew Hampton,
of course, is the DG of the NZ SIS and

(33:11):
is with us good morning morning mate. Are we too complacent?

Speaker 17 (33:15):
I think New Zealanders are increasingly aware that we're not
immune to national security threats, But I do think we
need to be constantly vigilant because that threat environment is
changing all the time.

Speaker 2 (33:27):
If you could show me everything you know, would I
freak out?

Speaker 17 (33:34):
Our Threat Environment report, I think provides a pretty good
overview of the types of things that we are seeing.
You know, we're increasingly worried about young people radicalosing online.
There is foreign interference happening in in New Zealand from
a range of countries, and espionage is put in at
risk our prosperity. So there is a lot to be

(33:58):
concerned about. At the same time, I'm key to responding
to that is the public just knowing what to look
out for and to take steps to respond.

Speaker 2 (34:06):
Do you rank them the three you mentioned, violent extremism,
foreign interference, espionage? Can you rank them in terms of
what we should be more worried about?

Speaker 17 (34:15):
In terms of nzsas's investigative effort, we've split about fifty
to fifty between those violent extremist threats and foreign interference
and espionage, although increasingly we're also doing work up in
the Pacific, both to understand what's going on, but also

(34:35):
to work with our specific partners to help them be
aware of what's going on so they can take steps
to mitigate the risk.

Speaker 2 (34:42):
Are they aware of what's going on? I mean, when
you sign an agreement with China, are you aware or
are you just taking the money.

Speaker 17 (34:49):
We've worked really hard over the last probably only a
year or eighteen months to try and provide more intelligence
to Pacific states. You know, a lot of the material
we deal with is quite classified, so we need to
find ways to share it with them. I do think
in the Pacific we are seeing this geostrategic competition playing

(35:12):
out and some Pacific states see that as an opportunity
and think they can balance the risk, but they don't
have all the information. So part of our job is
to help give them better information.

Speaker 2 (35:23):
Have you turned anyone on that?

Speaker 17 (35:27):
I think we've had. We've had quite a bit of success.

Speaker 7 (35:30):
You know.

Speaker 17 (35:31):
There's been if it's for example, by foreign states to
establish what's called ground based space infrastructure uprom the region.
So these are things to track satellites. There are attempts
to do it in New Zealand. We stop that. We've
shared that information with our Pacific partners and they've been
able to turn it off as well. So that's a
specific example where progress is being made but the threats

(35:53):
aren't going away.

Speaker 2 (35:54):
What's the line and how do you know between the
nasarus saying weird stuff at age twenty two online and
the guy is actually going to do something to me
in downtown Auckland, Wellington or christ Judge.

Speaker 17 (36:04):
Look, as our report states, these violent extremist narratives online
are a real concern. The vast bulk of the people
who engage with these narratives aren't going to take violent action,
but a small number do have the intent and capability

(36:24):
and that's why we need the public's help to identify
who are the individuals who show those signs of radicalization,
and we describe what that looks like in our report.
We've also done a bunch of work with teachers and
other people who engage with young people so they know
what those signs are.

Speaker 2 (36:43):
Do you have the tools you need?

Speaker 17 (36:46):
Look, we are fortunate in that the intelligence and security
agencies have over the last ten years had increases an investment,
We've had new legislation, but the world keeps changing, so
we're constantly talking with the ministers about what are the
types of capabilities we need. You know, one of the

(37:06):
real strengths we have is the relationships we have with
our five Eyes partners. They have technical capabilities, access to
intelligence that we use every day to protect ourselves. But
the public are a big part of this as well,
and that's what the report's about, helping to raise public's
awareness about threats so they can both that's when they
see stuff off sand but also know what Steff Dave
themselves can take.

Speaker 2 (37:26):
All right, I appreciate the inside Andrew Hampton from the
Sis this morning, GETO Mike. All good and well, but
will we ever see rump steak under twenty dollars again,
what an excellent question. More shortly fourteen past.

Speaker 1 (37:36):
The High Asking Breakfast Full show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talks that Be.

Speaker 2 (37:43):
Our old mate Nick Bryant Berkhauterrive on the meetings of
the last couple of days and the meetings still to come.
More good news seventeen past seven. By the way, more
good news from the Kiwi Fruit Department. Zsbray's full forecast
for the twenty five to twenty six season shows average
per hector return reaching record levels for everything except sun
Golden Organic Green Europe's after the more than two million
trays sold each week in the past of thirteen weeks.

(38:04):
Say Jason breaks as Zespery's CEO, and he's back with
It's Jason Morning, Morning White. How are you very well
you've got a vibe on the terraff in the US
yet or no?

Speaker 16 (38:14):
Yeah, I mean we're just living with it obviously since
April it's come into effect. We're pretty committed to North
America as a long term market for US, so we're
essentially looking through that into the long term. I think
there's got an opportunity there to continue growing and we're
actually going to sell more fruit in the US market
this year than what we expected we would good.

Speaker 2 (38:35):
What's your supply demand scenario? Seems to me that you
can grow everything you can grow and still sell more.

Speaker 16 (38:42):
I mean, we've got pretty strong demand around the world.
Consumers continue to want health and nutrition, and our product
has got a lot of that packed inside it. We've
built a strong brand and we've also got a good
supply chain network. So we're continuing to build demand each
single season and make sure that we continue to see
apply that demand with our fruit.

Speaker 2 (39:01):
What's gone wrong with organic green? I mean, is it
just the organic bit? Is it expense? Does it taste organics?

Speaker 7 (39:09):
No?

Speaker 16 (39:09):
Organics still pretty strong at the end of the day.
They're still pretty strong returns through organic green growers. It's
just that we've we've had some record levels at at
a different level before, but we've still got good returns
for organic green.

Speaker 2 (39:23):
Tell you what we were having some green at the
hell You shouldn't I mean the gold. You'll hate me
saying this, but the gold's sugary if you want the
real gold. So to speakers in the green, isn't it
green is just packed with the vitamins. If you want
something that's really good for you green, you can't go wrong,
am I right?

Speaker 16 (39:37):
Yes, I mean green's absolutely great for your digestive system
and your health benefits there packed with fiber. We've actually
just got a health claim signed off by the European
Commission this week, which is the first time a fresh
fruit has ever had a health claim in the European Commission,
and that's for our green fruit around digestive health. So
that's a really positive there.

Speaker 2 (39:58):
And what I was, I'm in the supermarket. I didn't
realize how cheap they are. I bought a punnet there's
maybe ten eleven in there, and it was I don't know,
three four five bucks something like that. I mean that's
good value, isn't it apart from anything else?

Speaker 16 (40:10):
Yeah, I mean good value and for looking after your
family and health. So yeah, no, I mean it's good
to have that available for Kiwi consumers.

Speaker 2 (40:20):
Are you butter and dairy? Do you sell different prices
here than over there?

Speaker 16 (40:25):
So we'll have different prices by at different markets depending
on whether value sits and also by volume and just
local economics, So yeah, it does vary by market.

Speaker 2 (40:37):
Interesting insiders always thanks Jason, and congratulations on all your success.
Jason to break I sounded a bit like a spokesperson
for the zest Breed, But I don't care. It's good
for you, it's good for your mic all good and well.
But there's rump steak at twenty dollars. Note you know
why we don't want cheap steak because if we have
cheap steak, and goes to the question, I just as
if we have cheap steak, it means we're selling it
cheap internationally, and we don't want to sell it cheap internationally.

(40:58):
We want to and I know you hate it, but
we want to be selling at the international price and
paying the international price, and the higher the international price,
we more than we make for the country. Seven twenty.

Speaker 1 (41:09):
The Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio.

Speaker 7 (41:13):
Power It by newstalksb.

Speaker 2 (41:17):
Right. The Key We Dream, So many would agree that
owning your home is a big part of the Key
We Dream. Of course, in SBS Bank, they've been helping
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cash back offer, contribution towards SBS insurance, home policies. We

(41:38):
got money back into an SBS wealth key, we Saber account.
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(42:01):
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Ready to get a great home loan rate and more?
Search SBS bank. Talk to your mortgage broker if you
want about SBS First Home Combo, SKay seventy four. As
the teachers head back to school today, like all the
other strikes, you know what, nothing got achieved never does
for a strike to work. You need to scare people.

(42:22):
You need to bring a place to a standstill. Cook
straight fairies. Bus and train services unavailable for weeks on
and that's what works. But those days are gone, of course,
thank the good Lord. These days it's a day here,
a day there. I mean, yes, we get you're not happy.
Yes you might deserve a better deal, but your day
off with you one minute of placard waving on the
TV news bullet and that hasn't watched anymore the way

(42:42):
it used to be. Doesn't really shift the dial, does it.
I think? Also, the country has changed in the past
few decades. Although unionism had a bit of a spike
under the Sixty Years of Labor, the Employment Contracts Act
of the early nineties largely broke the unions for good,
not literally. But when people got a choice, they chose
to back themselves. Do you know what I wish? I
wish those who are unionists could see the freedom and
potential of non union opportunity. I mean, no, not all

(43:06):
jobs can be individualized, but most can, and teaching is
one of them. We all know good teachers, great teachers,
ordinary teachers, the same way we all know good waiters
and restaurants, and doctors and accountants, retail outlets. In a
nation of small business. It tells us we back ourselves.
We like to back ourselves we revel in the idea
that we and our skills and our determination can make
a decent living. The fact, the rote response to merit

(43:28):
based pay for teachers goes something like, oh well, how
would you judge on exam results? It shows just how
little they understand their individuality and ability to make a difference.
It's like that Radio and New Zealand report last week
where most of them thought they're in a sunset industry,
when in fact the exact opposite is true. It's Stockholm syndrome.
Your captors, the unions have told you this is the

(43:50):
only way. It isn't never has been. I've argued this
for years, of course, and I've got nowhere. But that
doesn't make the argument a bad argument. What I know,
like hundreds of thousands of New Zealanders know, is being
your own boss, your own person is a winning formula
if you want to win.

Speaker 13 (44:04):
I know, like.

Speaker 2 (44:04):
Hundreds of thousands of other New Zealanders, I love my
job in my lot. I don't see the same fiss
from teachers. Why do you reckon?

Speaker 7 (44:10):
That is pasking before?

Speaker 2 (44:13):
We like our home land currently flaying. Yes, now, I'm
deeply immersed in this with various people I've gone. See
first of all, slap me on the back. I'm not
a lie. I mean, Greg and Andrew Will said the
same thing. Two point five is where we're heading. So
at two point five and we'll have to talk to
Christian about that because he wasn't saying that recently. But anyway,
two point five is where we're heading. So if you're

(44:33):
talking about mortgages and floating and stuff like that, you
really and this is part of the problem is when
they say we might be going two more times, I
mean they're going to have to go two more times,
but say we're officially we might be going. Could be
you're down at two point five. What's a mortgage?

Speaker 1 (44:48):
Is it?

Speaker 2 (44:48):
Four four, four, five, four six, something like that. I
would have gone, I'm telling people, get four seven, four
to eight. By the way, take my advice, don't take
my advice. Don't hold me to it, you know, do
whatever you like. But at two five, you're looking and
you're starting to look towards low falls, aren't you. And
if you're starting to look at low falls, you're on
a floating rate of six or seven. At the moment,

(45:09):
there's room to move anyway. We'll crunt some more numbers
with the Acting Reserve Bank Governor in a couple of
moments on the program, then get back into the meetings
of the last couple of days and those meetings still
to come, if there are any meetings. Nick Bright is
back after eight meantime, News is next.

Speaker 1 (45:25):
New Zealand's voice of reason is Mike the Mic asking
breakfast with Alveda Retirement Communities, Life Your Way, News Togsdad b.

Speaker 2 (45:34):
Bloy for minut's away from mates. So to the wonderful
world at the Central Bank and their view of where
we're at and what we need to do economically. Twenty
five point? Can't cash rate it four while it's down
to eventually it's going to be two and a half.
They think four two vote hasn't happened before. A couple
more cuts before Christmas. So Christian Hartsby, Acting Reserve Bank
Governor's back with us. Good morning today. What do you
say to people like Jared Kerr and Greg Smith at

(45:56):
Devon who have yelled for months now fifty points, fifty
points and fifty points last time you held in this
time it's only twenty five. They're right, you're not. What
do you say.

Speaker 18 (46:08):
I say that we're focused on our mandate, which is
achieving our inflation target and focused on those medium term
inflation pressures. And it's really been the economy stalling over
this Q two that's revised down that outlook, and that's
what we're responding to today.

Speaker 2 (46:27):
And then that today is part of the problem. The
Q two A lot of people saw it, saw it coming,
and we're yelling and you didn't. How come you didn't
see it?

Speaker 18 (46:37):
Well, we saw some of it come through in the
early phase, and in July. We had a meeting in
July and we indicated that there was some signs there
and that we were open to cutting going forward. So
we gave that signal and that bias in July. As
it's gone through since then, there's been even more signs
until we've got more confidence that we can lower rate

(47:00):
and we can lower them very quickly.

Speaker 2 (47:01):
Yeah, but you should have done that already.

Speaker 18 (47:05):
We just look forward from where we are is all
we can do. We play the ball in front of us.

Speaker 2 (47:10):
But what I'm trying to ascertain here is how is
it that so many people could see what was coming
in Q two? The will felt weird, it felt bad,
The local economy was crap and we will feel it
livet see it. How come you can't see the same thing.

Speaker 18 (47:27):
Because you know there are risks on either side of
the outlook that risk to growth has come through. There
are risks on the other side around inflation. Headline inflation
getting up around three percent. We've got it at three
percent for Q three, fifty to fifty percent chance it

(47:48):
could go over three. There's a risk that that could
push up inflation expectations and make our job harder. So
for our committee, we revise down our ocr project. But
we do actually see balanced risks around that lower path
that will put.

Speaker 2 (48:04):
Out that inflation. How much of it's driven by power,
insurance and rates, and how much of that do you
look through?

Speaker 18 (48:13):
A good chunk of it is And so core inflation
measures are falling, which is a good sign for us
keeping inflation an caed it that two percent target out
in the medium term, So we think we can look
through a lot of that rise, that near term rise

(48:33):
that we're seeing, but there is a risk that it
does get embedded. And we've seen household inflation expectations tick up,
and we're watching those very closely.

Speaker 2 (48:43):
But why have they ticked up? Christian they've ticked up
because I've got my rates bill and my power bill
and my insurance bill, and I just can't work out
what you can't see for next year. Why would a
council who's charging me twelve percent more this year not
charging me another twelve next year because they can it's
cost plus accounting.

Speaker 18 (49:00):
Councils will make their own decisions. We just have to
focus on what, in totality all that means for inflation
pressure in that medium in that medium term.

Speaker 2 (49:11):
Yeah, but if I look at a council's behavior, and
I look at a power company's behavior and an insurance
company's behavior, I'm seeing what you see. They're not they're
not putting their prices down. They're driving inflation, and I
don't see that changing. Therefore, that's not changing. Why do
you think it is.

Speaker 18 (49:28):
There's just one part of the equation. We do have
a lot of spare capacity in the economy, and so
that's what that's the driver that we see core inflation
settling more two percent in that medium term, because it's
just we're not in an environment where all firms can
pass on higher costs, and we're not an environment where

(49:52):
households can bid up wages because we have a very
soft labor market at the moment.

Speaker 2 (49:57):
But isn't that isn't that the crux of your problem?
The of your problem is what's driving inflation is not productivity.
It's just people sending out bills, and so you've got
your inflation, but you haven't got it with growth. It's
it's not the growth that's driving the inflation, hence the
traditional worry you might have.

Speaker 18 (50:14):
So we're focused on the cyclical economy. So it's really
about how much slacked there is relative to that potential
growth rate, and so that's what drives us. We've got
that medium term perspective. Productivity and potential growth is really
a long term story. It's about new skills, new technology,

(50:35):
and new ways of working your products, new markets. You know,
that's that's out of our control, and even policies to
promote those things are going to take time to flow
through and we won't see it immediately.

Speaker 2 (50:48):
The fifty percent, I think Karen was talking about it,
the fifty percent that's yet to flow through, as she
termed it. How wedded to that idea, are you?

Speaker 18 (50:57):
Oh, that that's very mechanical, even that that's based on
what we've done today. It's just the fact that we
know that people are who have fixed at those higher
rates just have to wait and bide their time until
they have the opportunity.

Speaker 2 (51:16):
Sorry, I didn't word it proper. Yeah, I know, I
get it. It's a mechanical question. I get it. But
when I get my money, when I get the relief
from the fixed interest rate and it comes down and
the insurance bill comes through, I'm no better off. Therefore,
I'm still in a funk. Therefore, the economy is still
not moving.

Speaker 18 (51:31):
And that's why since May we are providing more stimulus
because things have changed, things have been cooler, Households are
feeling like they've got less discretionary income, all of those things,
and that's what prompted the action yesterday, and that's what
prompted the conversation about with it to go fifty.

Speaker 2 (51:52):
Yeah, but they don't feel like they've got it. They
don't have it. It's a statement of fact. They don't
have it because of all of the inflation driven things
I mentioned a moment ago. The difficulty you face, as
far as I can work out, is you haven't done enough.
And now, if panic's too strong a word, you've certainly
woken up to the fact you've got to do more.
You've got at least two before Christmas, and I just

(52:13):
don't know for a fact that people are going to
respond to you because we're in such a funk. It's
the psychology of a recession, isn't it.

Speaker 18 (52:22):
We see risks on both sides. We're already seeing in
the July datus that some pick up and economic activity,
some of those anecdotes are coming through. We've got confidence
that there are drivers of this economy. We've got high
export commodity prices. We've got outside of Wellington and Auckland

(52:46):
the vibers different people feel Christian.

Speaker 2 (52:49):
It's been that way all year. The farmers are booming
and it's brilliant they're booming. But you can't say outside
of Auckland. Auckland is the engine room of the economy, large.

Speaker 18 (53:00):
Part of the economy, but it's not all of the economy.
If we if we could, if we could, we would
set interest rates differently for Auckland and Wellington, but we
have to set interest rates for the for the country.
That there are other drivers here. We are confident that
lower interest rate will will kick in and we will
see that recovery through the second half of this year.

Speaker 2 (53:22):
Well, let's hope you're right. Appreciate it very much. Christian Hawksby,
who's the acting Reserve Bank Governor. We'll company feedback in
the moment. Seven forty five The.

Speaker 1 (53:30):
Mike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered by
News Talks.

Speaker 2 (53:35):
It'd be all right at thirteen to eight, Mike, you
make more sense than the governor. I get stuck and
Mike wouldn't go on a long sea voyage with Christian.
Christian vacillating is not making me feel confident. He doesn't
instill confidence, does he. He doesn't sound like a bloke
who's on too He should have been. I was saying,
he should have been tearing me apart. Mike, you don't
have the slightest economic clue as to what's going on.

(53:56):
That's why I'm the governor. Here's why I'm right. Bang
bang bang bang, And the end of that, you go, oh,
is that what he's trying to do? Mike. Unfortunately, this
guy has a complete dipstickle, and I'm not sure attacking
him is the answer. Hosking now trying to tell the
RB governor how to do his job. Another display of
I know everything about everything, just effing arrogance, Mike, six
hundred plus staff. And that's the result. You get confused.

(54:17):
Rates remove money from the economy. They do, and they
don't Morning, Mike. Should we be calling it the reserved bank?
It's not bad. Can you actually call council rates, power
and insurance inflationary? Yes you can, because they're above the
inflation rate. And where's the money go? What you ideally
want is everybody playing the game. So, in other words,
of inflation's two and a half percent, your bills are

(54:39):
going up two and a half percent, you're growing about
two and a half percent. Anymore of the whole thing
starts to fall apart, and it's where the money goes.
The key to this is where the money goes. Going
to a council, going to an insurance company doesn't help
the economy because it's not predicted about. It's not particularly
productive spending. You want to put it into productive spending.
You want to start a company, you want to grow
a business, you want to higher people. That's where the

(55:01):
money needs to go. This guy basically is the tarot
card reader talking about Chakrask. Mike, it's not the RB's
job to grow the economy. The government need to provide
confidence and optimism. Very very very good point. But it
is the RB's job to provide the circumstances in the
economy for us to want to grow, and they're not

(55:21):
doing that. And that's the point. And Nikola was out
there yesterday trying to jawbone the place up and talk
about the misery merchants, and she can do that till
she's blue in the face. But you know as well
as I do that when your mortgage money comes down
and you've got more money, and suddenly then the bills
take up every one of those dollars, if not more so,
then that's not helping the economy. And that's exactly what's

(55:43):
happening at the moment.

Speaker 1 (55:44):
Tend Away the make Hosking Breakfast with Vida, Retirement, Communities News,
togs Head be.

Speaker 2 (55:50):
Mike, Thanks, thank heavens for your show. Driving across Saskatchuan
to Saskatoon, from Saskatchewan to Saskatoons stand by and as
beautiful as it is, the roads are a little straight
and the land is a little flat, but they've done that.
You could watch your dog run away for a couple
of days is what the Reserve Bank's saying, that we

(56:11):
have the productive side of the economy outweighed by the
bloated government sector, which needs an act taken to the
bureaucracy part of getting it back in balance and productivity. Daniel,
very very good question. Thank you for taking the time
out to be tripped to ask us that. I didn't
have time to ask Christian that. But my understanding of
what he said yesterday's the government's done their job. He
was bullish on the government. The government has got out
of the way. The government, broadly speaking, could they do more?

(56:33):
Of course they could do more. Could they cut more
public servants, you bet they could. But broadly speaking, his
argument seemed to be that the government had done their
side of the equation. He seems between a rock and
a hard place. He doesn't know how to explain it.
He either doesn't know how to explain it, or he
doesn't have a clue what's going on one or the other.

Speaker 10 (56:49):
Now.

Speaker 2 (56:49):
I know him to be a very bright, well educated person,
so I'm not personally insulting him or indeed any of
the others there. I'm sure they're all highly qualified, and
they've all got things on their wall that show they
turned up to institutions for extended period of time. My
whole argument is the economy is a human experience, and
I don't know that they're human enough to get it now.

(57:11):
It was always going to happen, but it was so fun.
Yesterday at question time in Parliament, will O Gene Willow,
I don't answer the male gene prime. She's been kept
out of question time this week for Philly. Obvious question
for Philly, obvious reasons, because you know full well the
moment she stood up, everyone's going to go.

Speaker 7 (57:25):
Here we go.

Speaker 2 (57:26):
The answer to the my Alliot Weller, Jane, there's all
of that coming anyway. She started with us yesterday.

Speaker 6 (57:32):
My question is to the Minister of Education, does she
stand by all her statements and actions now?

Speaker 2 (57:38):
The reason she asked that question, this is a This
is for wonks. They asked that question so that you
don't know what's coming. The primary question has to be
published so you can have some understanding and answering at
what you're in for. The supplementaries are where you branch out.
But the reason for supplementaries branching out is they can't
via too far from the primary COQ question. So they

(58:01):
ask a really random question like do you stand behind
all your statements? Unfortunately Erica saw it coming.

Speaker 6 (58:07):
Missus Speaker. Yes, and in particular my repeated attempts to
contact the member to get cross party collaboration on particulument.

Speaker 9 (58:15):
In CEO reform.

Speaker 6 (58:17):
The public expect cross party engagement on significant issues such
as the future of our national curriculum, and I mightt
certainly stand by my repeated efforts over many months, y
a multiple challenge and open invitation to achieve this to
both the member and the leader of the Opposition, both
of whom didn't reply until it was a matter of
public interest.

Speaker 2 (58:37):
So take that. Can you ever listen to Willow jen
Prime on anything ever again? And take her even remotely seriously,
knowing full well she's not really interested in the email
bank Mike. One thing I cannot get my head around
is the fact that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand
at one point recently had five hundred and twenty four staff.
And that's the other side of the equation. Under Adrian
or he was wanting a billion dollars billion dollars to

(59:02):
run the Reserve Bank. He was wanting to expand into
areas that you've got you've never even heard of before.
He was hiring left, right and center. And the tragedy
at the moment is thank god Nikola came along and
said forget it, gave him a nice, big twenty five
percent cut, and now, sadly there are people who I'm
sure very nice people doing a very nice job, who

(59:22):
are going to lose their work because Adrian was a
nego maniac and wanted to hire every second person in
Wellington to run his esteemed establishment, his empire, so he
could yet again go out and misread the economy, bugger
the place completely. I mean, how you defend any of
this is beyond me, but there you go. So next
Nick Bryant, our old mate's back. What we need to

(59:43):
deal with is what happens. You notice how quiet the
White House has been in the last twenty four hours,
bullish out of Alaska, bullush out of the meeting earlier
on this week, meetings meetings by lats, tilats, and then hello, Hello,
where is the meeting and who's there?

Speaker 19 (59:56):
Nick Bryant is next makes game engaging and ideal the
mic asking breakfast with Range Rover leading by example, news
togs Head b.

Speaker 2 (01:00:11):
If it was seven past eight, So with amazing maybe
in the wings that could be in Budapart or Switzerland
or anywhere else you might want to guess. It could
involve two people or three people are bye left and
the tri late. The upshot is the pressure is on
the US president at the moment to deliver on a
peace deal for Ukraine. He's busy claiming he is the
war solder in chief. Seven wars and counting as of yesterday.
Our all make Nick Bryant author of everything from when

(01:00:33):
America Stopped being Great to the Forever War is back
with us?

Speaker 7 (01:00:36):
Nick, Good morning, Hey Mike, how I I'm very well.

Speaker 2 (01:00:39):
Indeed, I'll start with the last question. First, how do
you think all this ends?

Speaker 7 (01:00:44):
Well, it's so difficult to say, isn't it. Presumably it ends, Mike,
with Donald Trump at some stage really saying to Vladimir
Pussin issuing him an ultimatum, this has to stop. And
if it does, and we will exert pressure on you.
The problem is, Mike, that crunch moment never comes, does it.

(01:01:06):
When he headed to Alaska, he said, I am demanding
a cease far. And if there isn't a cease far,
there are going to be serious consequences. With Vladimir Pusin,
he was talking about more sanctions, He was talking about
secondary sanctions from countries like India and China, who, by
rushes All, who basically sort of helped finance the war
effort through those purchases. And what happened in Alaska, Trump

(01:01:26):
back down. He came away with nothing from Pousin. And
that's the problem. As you said, he just seems to
be sort of making it up as as he's going
along a bilateral or a trilateral Budapest or Switzerland. There
just doesn't seem to be a strategic plan. As so
often happens, It seems that Trump is influenced by the
last person he speaks to. This week, it was the
Europeans of Vladimitzelenski in Washington, that extraordinary summit this time.

(01:01:51):
Last week, of course, it was Vladimir Putin in another
extraordinary summit in Alaska. There's just doesn't seem to be
a coherent strategy mic, So it's hard to see how
this ends.

Speaker 2 (01:02:03):
Do you think there will be a meeting will Putin show?

Speaker 7 (01:02:07):
Well, he has always rejected the legitimacy of Vladimir Zelenski
as the president of Ukraine. He has always regarded him
as a junior. He doesn't say any parity between Russia
and Ukraine. He wants to see a puppet in Ukraine.
He wants to see a Russia friendly Ukraine. And he's
never stepped back, Mike, from that core demand throughout this process.

(01:02:30):
Over the last few weeks, as Donald Trump has had
these phone calls, as Donald Trump has had this face
to face, Vladimir Putin has made absolutely zero concessions. And
while this process has been going on, of course he's
intensifying the war. I mean, after being given that letter
from Milania Trump saying you know, stop basically stop killing kids,

(01:02:53):
he keeps on killing kids. And it goes back to
this relationship, Mike, which is the most fascinating ballad of
relationship on the PLA right now between Vladimir Putin and
Donald Trump. I do not understand that relationship. I mean,
thinking about that relationship for the last sort of eight
or nine years, I think the only two people who
really understand it are Putin and Trump. Who knows what

(01:03:15):
happened in Alaska, especially in that private moment we're in
the beast together. You know, they have that sort of
ridiculous sort of red carpet stagecraft and choreographed entry into Alaska.
They get into the car together. You know, Trump is
generally deferred to by every international leader, but the relationship

(01:03:36):
is so different with Putin is there. He just seems
to go weak at the knees when Putin is around.
He seems to defer to Putin. His language, his body
language is so different. He never gets what he wants
out of Putin. And I don't know why, and I
don't think anybody really does.

Speaker 2 (01:03:51):
What's happened. What I find interesting is this was a
bloke who's isolationist to Mierica first, and if you listen
to Marjorie Taylor Green and all that lot, this isn't
the war. He didn't seem interested. He was going to
give you a meeting. I was got. This is months ago.
And if you don't want to do what I'm out,
I'm done. I've got better things to do with the time.
Now he's solving, according to him, seven wars. Is he

(01:04:12):
an isolationist or is he solving the world's problems.

Speaker 7 (01:04:15):
I don't think he's ever been an isolationist in the
traditional sense, which is to basically retreat to America to
kind of regard America as a country that wouldn't really
connect in a significant way with other countries in a
significant way with other conflicts around the world. And I
think during the second term he's become a real interventionist.

(01:04:35):
I mean, you know, Trump can claimed credit for intervening
in some conflicts in a very helpful way. I mean,
not least the Indo Pakistan flare up over that attack
in Kashmir earlier in the year that had the potential
pint to go really really ugly. I mean, these are
two nuclear arm powers. Back in two thousand and one,
two thousand and two, there was a conflagration there that

(01:04:58):
really looked like it it it could spiral out of control,
and the Trump's administration was very quick in this instance
to stop that. You know, we've seen these these these
peace deals in Africa, and you know the problem is
my I mean so often Trump goes for this kind
of performative diplomacy. It's it's it's stagecraft rather than state craft.

(01:05:22):
It's not the kind of patient slog that you really
need to get a lasting piece. I mean, the example
would be Northern Ireland. You know, the good Friday agreement
took years. It took patient negotiation by the Clinton administration,
in particular the former US Democratic Senator George Mitchell. It
was a slow process. It was an agonizing process. It

(01:05:44):
required enormous detail, you know, looking at maps and things
like that. And you know, Trump just hasn't got this patience,
which is why it's a sort of throwing out all
these different ideas. It's it's almost like its episodic mic.
I mean, in Alaska it was the kind of Pudin show,
and this week it was the kind of Zelenski and
the European Leaders show. And next week it'll be the

(01:06:06):
maybe the Budapest show or the Geneva show. And there's
always a cliffhanger. He runs his foreign policy on stuff
like this as if it is a reality TV show,
and that's what makes it so difficult to follow. And
that's what makes it so difficult to trust the process.
Because when America starts talking about security guarantees, are they

(01:06:27):
worth anything or is it just the kind of diplomatic
equivalent of a degree from Trump University.

Speaker 2 (01:06:32):
A very good point hold on, Nick more in a moment,
Nick Bryant, thirteen past eight.

Speaker 1 (01:06:36):
The mic asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talks.

Speaker 2 (01:06:41):
It be News Talks will be sixteen past eight tourn
Nick Brian Beck with us, let me broaden it out
a bit further neck the president, since we've been a
while since we've talked the presidency so far, specifically court
battles in his ability to sort of do seemingly what
he wants. He appears and I know this is a
sweeping statement, but he appears to win more in court
than he doesn't, so he's allowed to do what he

(01:07:02):
wants to do. Is that a fear assessment? And if
it is, is it good presidency.

Speaker 7 (01:07:09):
He's not winning every single battle in the Supreme Court,
but he is winning many of the key battles in
the Supreme Court. There was a ruling earlier, a couple
of months ago, which said, for instance, that lower court
judges could not sort of block his policies, which was
a really big win for Donald Trump. And of course,

(01:07:29):
he got the really big win before he became president,
which is when the Supreme Court ruled that he basically
had presidential immunity and other presidents did as well, which
gave him really not untrammeled pap an awful lot of power. Yeah,
and he's using that. I think the Trump Summer, you know,

(01:07:51):
the Trump Northern Summer. We have seen Trump in full.
You know, we have seen Trump as the protectionists. We've
seen Trump as this kind of you know, and in
mention this now, I mean, somebody who I think is
more interested in the art of the photo op to
be honest, in the art of the deal. But you know,
he is intervening in these conflicts partly because he wants
to be at the center of the action. I mean,

(01:08:11):
that's kind of you know, this is an attention seeking president,
and the way to get attention is to put yourself
in the middle of these things. You know, we've seen
Trump the kind of authoritarian, putting troops into Los Angeles,
putting troops now into Washington, d C. In places where
there isn't crime. You know, if you if you're going
to start putting troops on the National Mile, the National

(01:08:32):
mil Mike, as you know, is a very safe place
in Washington. The places that aren't safe are the places
that are not getting troops at the moment. So it's
again it seems like a performanceive show of force to
underscore his sort of authority, and we're seeing this kind
of you know, the protectionist as well, you know, just

(01:08:55):
hammering these these tars against countries. You know, we are,
we're But I was in the States recently, Mike, and
you know, he's still not a majority president. He has
never cracked fifty percent in the Gallup approval ratings. He's
the only president in history not to do that since
this Poland began in the kind of late nineteen thirties.
He didn't get fifty percent in the election. Sure he

(01:09:17):
won the popular vote, but he only got forty nine
point nine eight percent. We talk about Trump's America, but
it isn't really Trump's America yet. You know, Reagan won
forty nine out of fifty states when he ran in
nineteen ninety four. You know, George Perbert Walker Bush one
forty out of fifty and got more than fifty percent
of the vote. Trump's never got that. So, although you know,
he's trying to mold America in his image, he hasn't

(01:09:38):
managed to do that yet. And there are signs that
the tariffs are starting to buy that inflation is starting
to go up. The people are still angry that the
price of eggs hasn't come down. You know, we kind
of look at Trump as if he's a nipotent he's
on the present, but he hasn't dominated America yet in
the way that he would have liked.

Speaker 2 (01:09:55):
Which brings me on. It was the question is how's
he setting them up? His party? There is for the
twenties six midterms.

Speaker 7 (01:10:03):
Well, I think there's an expectation that, you know, the
Republicans will lose the House. I mean, you know, they've
got such a narrow majority the House of Representatives which
they control right now, to control the Senate as well.
You know, incumbent presidents generally suffer losses in the midterm elections,
and it would not require many seats to shift hands
for the Democrats to be in control. Then the Democrats

(01:10:23):
get oversight, then the Democrats can start launching investigations. I mean,
that doesn't give you massive power, but it gives you
a certain amount of power to kind of rein him
in the Senate. Map is harder for the Democrats than
it is for the Republicans, and the Republicans are in
control of the Senate right now, so this expectation that
he will keep the Senate, the Republicans will keep control
of the Senate. But one of the reasons, it's thought

(01:10:45):
that he's pushing so hard and so fast at the moment.
I mean, the energy levels of this administration will frankly
have surprised me. I didn't think they'd be quite so
sort of fast and furious in the early months. You know.
One of the reasons why they might be doing that
is because they realized that the national situation in Washington
won't be as helpful ass now after the midterms. But yeah,

(01:11:05):
a lot, you know, so much depends on the economy,
and you know the thing about the tariffs. Yet you
know there's a lag effect. They haven't really a lot
of them haven't really come in yet. I mean, Trump
keeps on saying it's sort of foreign government's paying money
into the American exchequer. It's not, it's it's it's US firms,
and they're going to start passing that onto US consumers
at a moment, and that could really impact its popularity.

Speaker 2 (01:11:25):
Exactly. Always a great pleasure, Mike, we'll catch up again soon.
Appreciate it as always. Nick Bryant errold might from across
the Tasman these days, of course, author of Well when
America's Stop being Great. If you haven't read it yet,
Into the Forever War. It is eight twenty one.

Speaker 1 (01:11:38):
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(01:12:45):
Very please. By the way, there's report out just before
we leave Trump. The S and P yesterday basically in
simple terms, said the money coming in from the tariffs
may well go somewhere. They're held the ratings, so they
maintained the double A plus rating on the long term
sovereign debt and a A one plus rating on the
short term stuff. Anyway, they said, broadly speaking, the money

(01:13:06):
coming in from the tariffs should, in some way, if
not completely, go a long way to offsetting the big
increase in debt from the Big Beautiful Bill. So the
Big Beautiful Bill's got three and a half trillion dollars
of extra spending, which is never good because it's all debt.
But the money coming in maywell. But that doesn't mean
the prices aren't going up and I told you about
the PlayStation five. It's only PlayStation five. It's going up
fifty bucks, but only in America. Ask yourself why now?

(01:13:29):
Yesterday some common sense returned to the New Zealand political
landscape because Marima Davidson's you can repair it for ever
bill that hole when you toast a brakes and you
don't want to buy a new one, so you take
it to Brian who runs a shop on the corner
and they'll repair it. Her special bill, which did have
support from New Zealand First so Labor backed at greensback
to the Murray Party backed at New Zealand First back.

(01:13:51):
That made it, although it had to go off to
Select Committee. That meant it was if those numbers help,
it was going to be law. And in a simple way,
it's sort of made sense in an old fah wouldn't
it be nice to repair some stuff once again? But
the critical failure that no one seemed to point out
was it compelled manufacturers to supply parts now in New

(01:14:13):
Zealand at the bottom of the world, and if you're
sitting in the other side of the world in Europe
and you're a major user in Italy or Germany or France.
You're not supplying little Old New Zealand with parts forever.
It doesn't work that way. You make some products rightly
or wrongly, and when they fall apart, you throw them
out and you buy some new ones. And so she
was expecting manufacturers to supply parts forever, and it was
never realistic. Obviously New Zealand First woke up to that,

(01:14:38):
and that's before. Of course, it adds cost to the product.
They say, are you want to supply parts? No props?
So the fifty dollars thing was selling you now one
hundred and twenty. So there, so none of it made
any sense in the real world. So New Zealand First
has pulled their support and that basically is the end
of that. The migrant drama continues to unfold in Britain.

Speaker 1 (01:14:55):
Rod Next News Opinion and everything in it. We the
Mike Hoskin Breakfast with Bailey's real Estate all together better
across residential, commercial and rural news, togs Head been and
I wish.

Speaker 2 (01:15:08):
The flight Center and Tourism New Zealand all the very best.
They've announced another one of their campaigns. What I didn't
realize and this worries me and I probably need to
raise it with the Prime Minister on Monday because I
thought something different, but or come to that in the moment. Anyway,
Flight Center and Tourism New Zealand they're launching another one
of these campaigns for get more people into the country.
They're focusing on the shoulder seasons, which is good. They're

(01:15:29):
focusing on four key markets that they've identified as what
they call key destinations where they think there might be
a bit of room to move Canada, South Africa, Australia
and Britain. Makes sense to me as far as it
can work out. Involves travel associates, crews about cruise club
byo jet, et cetera. So they're going to get out
into the world and hopefully drum up a bit of business.
Their biggest challenge, and this is interesting, is the Tasman

(01:15:52):
we're only back to ninety percent of pre COVID capacity. Now,
I was under the impression that capacity wasn't the problem.
Seats were. It's that people went buying the seats and
the seats that were buying weren't coming to New Zealand.
So they're arguing quantity in New Zealand have added capacity
across the testament, but it's still not what it was
or what it needs to be. Got similar issues in

(01:16:13):
and out of Asia. Now in New Zealand, their problems
are famous, but they're not the only airline. So I
didn't realize there was still that capacity problem. So it'll
be interesting to know what, if anything, we're actually doing
about that. But that's for another day. But as regards
the campaign, I hope it works. Twenty two minutes away from.

Speaker 1 (01:16:28):
Nine international correspondence with Insieye Insurance peace of mind for
New Zealand business.

Speaker 2 (01:16:34):
But can we go ron little good morning, good on
to you mate. So the ipping decision is this guest
going to lead to a long line, a conga line
of councils heading for the local judge looking for something similar.

Speaker 20 (01:16:44):
That conga has already long begun. Yet that's exactly what's
going to happen, and already has happened. I think Telford
is the latest, but there's been about twelve fifteen so far.
By the end of the week, it will be somewhere
in the region of one hundred, I would.

Speaker 2 (01:17:00):
Imagine, right, So you get the judges and they go yep,
now you've got to move them out of this particular
hotel and you move them out too weird.

Speaker 20 (01:17:08):
Ah, well, this is a problem and this is going
to be a huge problem for labor. Basically, asylum seekers
are housed in hotels in areas where rents are very expensive.
It's all the southeast into a degree in the southwest.
So it's cheaper to keep them in hotels than it
is to put them in rented accommodation. So what will happen,

(01:17:33):
you would imagine, is that the asylum seekers will be
dispersed to the north and northwest and northeast of the
country where they are currently honed in houses with multiple occupants.
That will be a huge test for those remaining councils
in the north which are run by the Labor Party.

(01:17:55):
Reform monts down for it. So as I say, no,
get stuffed with not particularly noted, but Labor if it
has to, you know, do what the government says. It's
own government. It's going to be taking in lots and
lots of asylum secrets.

Speaker 2 (01:18:10):
And how does this work? Is this council housing they
already are in or do they go into the private sector.

Speaker 20 (01:18:15):
Private sector A lots of time, almost entirely, we have
a very slim public sector now for rent, which is
part of the fault of Margaret's partly the fault of
subsequent governments which never invested in it. So there's an
awful role in the private rented sector. And you know
it's cheaply will be cheaper than hotel, there's no question

(01:18:37):
about that. And the annoying thing for the government of
you know, having reporters saying, well, they came down to
a full English breakfast or a choice of Continental breakfast,
which sadly is true. You know, they they do have this.
They also you know, some of them have free gym membership.
It's stretches of credulity. It infuriates the public, so they

(01:19:04):
won't be doing that. But goodness me, already in my
hometown of Middlesbrough there's been a huge influx of asylum,
see because we have some of the cheapest housing in
the country and that's only going to get worse and
people really won't like it.

Speaker 2 (01:19:20):
Is there any attraction to be gained by the possibility
that you process these people a great deal faster than
me before. They don't stay in accommodation as long as
they might otherwise.

Speaker 20 (01:19:29):
Be well you might think so, or it might be
an easier thing to do, which is simply to say, henceforth,
nobody who comes into this country illegally, they immediately forfeit
their right to stay in the country because they've come illegally.
If they were able to take some sort of decision
like that, it might actually prove to be a deterran

(01:19:50):
But no, I mean, in a sense having them in
homes of multiple occupancy, it probably means they're there for
longer than if they were in a hotel.

Speaker 2 (01:20:00):
Unreal. I take it the one in, one out things
not really making a huge dnt in the problem.

Speaker 20 (01:20:05):
Well, you know, fifty thousand have come in since Labor
took office. This is expected to deal with thirty or forty.
I mean, it's it's it's performative mke. You know, it's
it's pointless.

Speaker 2 (01:20:20):
What's gone wrong with your inflation?

Speaker 7 (01:20:23):
Right?

Speaker 2 (01:20:23):
Because I think many of us, including us will broadly
have things right. But I mean your number other night,
I mean that's hopeless.

Speaker 20 (01:20:30):
It is hopeless, and it's been edging that way. I
think it was three point six last month or three
point four I forget, which it's been edging up all
this year. Whereas after you know, se next government. We
were down to the early two point three two point fours.
Now at three point eight. It's a real problem. There's
an argument that it's been caused, particularly by airfares, inflated airfares,

(01:20:55):
but you know, there's always something to cause it, and
there's always something which possibly drag it back down. The
truth is that food is still getting more expensive, so
we're going to have another you know, credit crisis of
people and cash crisis that people just not being able
to fall to eat. It means that interest rates won't

(01:21:16):
go down. So it's a terrible problem for Reeves and
Rachel Reeves to Chalsor, and it remains if you see
what she'll do about it, I wouldn't like to guess, mate.
I think she's on mes amthetamine at the moments of
Gold knows which is going to do.

Speaker 2 (01:21:29):
Appreciate it rod little out of Britain back on Tuesday.
By the way, the the States Department, the National Statistics
Office of publication of the latest monthly retail figures have
been rescheduled because they have datas. They've looked at the
data and they thought, hold on, these numbers don't look good.
They probably saw that woman sect in America and thought,
hang on, we a bit of double check there, Rachel reeves.
If you wanted ticket to oblivion politically, here's where she's going.

(01:21:52):
And I don't think she sees it coming. And this
is applicable here because of the capital gains tax slash
wealth text that labor are going to run with in
the election near Nick year. She's drawing up plans so
that you pay a tax when you sell the family home.
And if you think if a government thinks that taxing
a family home is going to get them a vote,

(01:22:12):
they have got something else coming. So they're looking to
end the exemption from the capital gains tax when owners
of higher value properties sell out. So the higher rate
would be twenty four percent of the value of any gain,
while those on a basic rate of income would pay
eighteen percent. So they're going to whack everyone. So whatever

(01:22:33):
you make on your house, if you make one hundred
thousand pounds, if you're wealthy so called, are you paying
twenty four percent of that or eighteen percent to the government.
That's your family home. It's not your back's not your
third home, it's not your investment property. It's your family home.
Eight forty five, the.

Speaker 1 (01:22:51):
High Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered by
News Talks.

Speaker 2 (01:22:56):
That'd be by the way this time you stay. We're
talking with Steve about the Indies. Which is this weird
insurance scheme they've got in Australia, the disability Anyway, it's
all got hopelessly out of control, forty seven billion dollar scheme.
Tens of thousands of young Australians are being diagnosed with autism,
they get plans and money and the whole thing's just

(01:23:16):
a mess. So anyway, the guy Mark Butler, who's the Minister,
came out yesterday said a key concern was the extremely
high level of therapy being provided to children on the scheme.
Listen to how this works. They're missing milestones. He's arguing.
These kids, they're not messed helped by receiving a budget
of ten, twenty or thirty thousand dollars and then being
expected to work out for themselves how to spend it.

(01:23:39):
I didn't realize it worked that way. So your kid
gets diagnosed with autism, you go along to the n dies,
they hand your check for thirty thousand dollars and say
go have fun. I mean, what the hell are you
supposed to do with that. The extent of therapy provided
to those children now in the system is extremely high
compared to anything you would see in the health system
on average, just an average, he says, a young NDIS

(01:24:00):
participant with moderate needs is receiving more than seventy therapy
sessions a year. That's an excess of one a week
paid for by the state. Is At the National Press
Club yesterday, he said, bringing growth under controllers therefore not
just a question to budgets. Social license is also particularly

(01:24:21):
important to such a scheme, and right now although the
license is strong, and I do worry that it's coming
under pressure, no kidding. Other thing that didn't seem to
get much cabbage yesterday that I'm surprised about because I'm
interested as to where it goes. Legally, they signed off
Cabinet on the killing of the greyhound industry thirty one
July next year. So having ticked that off at cabinet,

(01:24:44):
a bill's not going to be drafted. This brings in
the tab who will manage the rehoming of the greyhounds
and supporting the industry members while the sport's wound down.
How much of that, I mean, how confident are you
that Reggie and Betty and Booboo and all the other
dogs are going to go to How honestly, how confident

(01:25:04):
are you that they're all going off for a nice,
happy life. But as we told you on the program,
the greyhound industry are off to court, so it'll be
interesting to see where that goes. Ten to nine The.

Speaker 1 (01:25:14):
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Speaker 2 (01:25:18):
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(01:25:40):
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(01:26:02):
open to New Zealand residents aged eighteen and over. Lasky
Michael Shiver goes through the boomer listeners. Imagine now that
the UK going that way, New Zealand could follow. Well
that's what you're going to be dealing with next year.
That's going to be the great debate for election year.
What sort of tax at capital gains, taxes at wealth,
taxes at both? From the Labor Party, my idea is

(01:26:22):
to bring back stamp duty. See it's a bad idea,
and I'll tell you why it's a bad idea because
I was reading an article and I don't have time
to do it now, so I'll do it tomorrow. But
I was reading an article yesterday or the day before.
The impingement of the stamp duty, the amount you pay
in how it affects you in Australia is ruinous. So

(01:26:43):
the original idea, you could go, oh, yeah, I sort
of understand. I mean, all taxes bad, let's be honest.
But the stamp duty made an element of sense. But
it's ruined the opportunity for many people in Australia to
buy a house because it's tied up with their house.
It's very common. They've also made it very complicated and straight.
It's tied up with the valduy of the house, what
you earn, et cetera, et cetera, and how much you

(01:27:04):
sell it for. But I just think of old Christian
hawksby this morning, back to the New Zealand economy. Kitchen
Things yesterday, that's them done, receivership, twelve stores, lots of
jobs gone are they're looking for somebody to buy it.
They hope somebody can buy it. But every day there's
a company that's getting as the Palmerston North Cafe earlier
on this week Kitchen Things yesterday. Christian doesn't see any

(01:27:27):
of it. Don't worry, it'll all flow through eventually. Five
minutes away from nine.

Speaker 1 (01:27:32):
Trending now with Chemist Warehouse, great savings every day.

Speaker 2 (01:27:38):
Netflix, where do we go? Two brothers, they're on the run.
Seems to be a lot of that. We've done a
lot of that lately. People on the run. There's a
lot of people. Immediate thought.

Speaker 16 (01:27:49):
As I was cutting this together, this audio, I thought,
I'm pretty sure i've seen this film about.

Speaker 2 (01:27:54):
Yet another some people on the run. Okay, so they're
on the run. What are they on the run from?

Speaker 14 (01:27:59):
Oh?

Speaker 2 (01:28:00):
Some dangerous loan shots?

Speaker 15 (01:28:01):
Yeah?

Speaker 2 (01:28:02):
Yeah, maybe maybe twelve times before here we go sent.

Speaker 7 (01:28:04):
To my face, she's squaredd.

Speaker 14 (01:28:07):
I thought I could pay these guys back at a
sure thing.

Speaker 7 (01:28:12):
How much do you owe them?

Speaker 2 (01:28:13):
Things?

Speaker 7 (01:28:13):
Big number? What do you think happens you.

Speaker 14 (01:28:17):
Don't pay back alone for three years, everything's falling apart.
My family in the restaurant. I'm holding on by the
skin of my teeth. I didn't budget for you.

Speaker 7 (01:28:30):
Your brother has a real problem.

Speaker 14 (01:28:32):
You understand what this all means, right, It means it's
on me twenty grand a week until we're square.

Speaker 8 (01:28:38):
But if you're late one single day, that's it.

Speaker 14 (01:28:41):
The restaurant, it's ours. If we're gonna be lying to
everybody else, we need to be honest with each other.

Speaker 2 (01:28:49):
Jake, Right, So it says here, did you pick the voices?

Speaker 15 (01:28:54):
No?

Speaker 2 (01:28:54):
I didn't. I did one because one's very obvious. The
other one isn't Jude Law was not obvious. Bateman is
obviously Jason. What was the movie where Jason Bateman? Was
it Melissa McCarthy. He was chasing her or she was
chasing him because he owed money or she owed money,
whatever it was called, it was a very good movie.

Speaker 16 (01:29:11):
Well, and then of course you've got the whole Ozak.

Speaker 2 (01:29:13):
Thing where he ose money and chasing his money and yeah,
and who a dentity thief was? To all Jason Bateman does,
apart from hanging out with Jennifer Instant going on holiday
together on yachts, is make movies about being on the run.
Mind you, Hugh Grant made movies about being Hugh Grant,

(01:29:33):
didn't he? So that works if it works Netflix, September
the eighteenth is what we're doing with it. I'll be
watching it. This sort of thing. I like back Tomorrow morning,
Friday's edition to The mic Asking Breakfast. Always completely out
of control and loving it as always Happy days.

Speaker 1 (01:29:52):
For more from The mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to
news talks it'd be from six am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio.

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