Full Show Podcast: 29 May 2025

Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
New Zealand's voice of reason is Mike the Mic asking
breakfast with Bailey's real Estate, your local experts across residential,
commercial and rural news Talksdad been.

Speaker 2 (00:11):
Morning and welcome today. The Prime Minister's in, the Reserve
Bank governor is in. We have a blueprint the author's
claim can fix the so called supermarket problems. Tammy neil
Sin is in for a chatterhead of Tonight's Music Awards.
Joe McKenna in Italy. Rod Liddle gives us what's what's
from Britainsky Bow First the morning, Welcome to it, seven
past six. Now call me superficial, but to watch the
Reserve Bank heavyweights lined up as I did yesterday afternoon

(00:32):
post their cash rake decision. You are not seeing dynamism there.
Believe me. These people outwardly do not fill you with
any sense of excitement. The Reserve Bank, I think, is
in a spot and as a result, so are we
as a country. The couple of semi interesting things happened yesterday,
and in fact one very interesting thing. They voted five
to one to cut. They don't vote often. They also

(00:52):
offered alternative scenarios. They haven't done that for five years.
Alternative scenarios are not a good sign in my mind,
have enough of them usually making stuff up. I mean,
anyone can drum up alternative scenarios. What I want to
hear from and more from the experts, is what's actually
going on. The important stuff is that they've got no
bias now on further cuts. A lot of people thought,
including me, we would get a cut yesterday, followed by

(01:15):
one more, possibly two more, the so called neutral rate,
that cash rate would settle at two seven five or
two point five. That now seems to be off the table.
Why they argue inflation, which is what drives them, that's
their mandate, is in the band. Trouble with that is
it's only just in the band. It's heading more towards
the top of the band. And here's the really big part.
Growth or large dollops of growth are not driving this inflation.

(01:38):
We're barely growing, if growing at all. And yet inflation
is still a thing that's not good for an economy,
and it's certainly not good for government. See the government,
namely Willis and Luxon. They leap and have leapt on
each announcement talking about the money coming back into the
economy as the interest rates drop. If the bank isn't cutting,
rates aren't dropping, and we aren't spending or feeling remotely bullish.
The RB doesn't care that much because they're f fixated

(02:00):
on inflation, whether it's driven by factors beyond our control,
things like insurance or shipping or councils and rates, or
what we really want growth. Yes, we've had growth in
Q one, quite good growth. The live GDP track of
those got Q two up a bit, but not much,
and it has anual numbers still in the negative. Inflation
trending up. What we need, broadly speaking, in the economy's help.

(02:22):
We're in a quagmire. We need to extricate ourselves out of.
The RB doesn't look like they're that interested.

Speaker 3 (02:29):
Why News of the world in ninety seconds, War.

Speaker 2 (02:33):
News War I of the Germans all over this long
range missile thing for Ukraine.

Speaker 4 (02:37):
There will be no range limits on these. Ukraine will
be able to fully defend itself, including against military targets
outside its own territory.

Speaker 2 (02:47):
Zelenski happy.

Speaker 4 (02:49):
The Russians are using dozens of cruise missiles, ballistic missiles
and hundreds of drones in order to protect lives in
our cities.

Speaker 5 (02:56):
We need constant support.

Speaker 3 (02:58):
And air defense War II.

Speaker 4 (03:00):
We have very important agreements with Germany about air defense
War two.

Speaker 2 (03:04):
The Israelis are claiming again they've got Sinhwa, who was
the black behind the October Right.

Speaker 4 (03:08):
Kussano thought, we've killed tens of thousands of terrorists. We
killed dive Haania Yahya Sinhoa and Mohammad Sinha.

Speaker 2 (03:17):
Meantime, the United Nations hearing from people who've been in Gaza.

Speaker 6 (03:20):
I did not see or treat a single combatant during
my five weeks in Gaza. My patients were six year
olds with shrapnels in their heart and bullets in their brains,
and pregnant women whose pelvises had been obliterated and their
fetuses cut into while still in the womb.

Speaker 2 (03:35):
Are the matters. The Harvard script with Trump continues to
reverberate all over the World's appointments for visas for students
to cancel. The social media search is now being wide
and old, and the money stopped.

Speaker 7 (03:44):
It's hard to worry too much about this when you're
around students' current students that are about to graduate had
jobs lined up and are unclear as to whether they're
going to be able to take those jobs.

Speaker 2 (03:58):
Then in Liverpool still a lot of quick about the
other day he.

Speaker 7 (04:01):
Was at least five hundred yards day in the road
before you got anywhere near the first people he hit.

Speaker 3 (04:07):
And he was lapped through there.

Speaker 2 (04:09):
In my opinion, he should not have got anywhere near
or Finally, you study by the division of sleep at
Brigham and Women's Hospital, so founded on average, a snoozer,
you know, when you beep and you hit snooze, takes
an extra eleven minutes after their first alarm. That adds
up to about a night's worth of sleep every month.
And because you're waking up then going sort of back
to sleep, you're not allowing your body more time in

(04:30):
the old rim. Now RIM's the good stuff that helps
the cognitive function in the memory can also lower your
mood if you don't get enough rem so you are
better off carrying on sleeping. So, in other words, set
your alarm later, use up the time you would have
snoozed actually sleeping, and then when it does go get up. Yes,
world mighty, what have I got? An inflation? More inflation
than they thought in Britain, beef is driving. That's so

(04:52):
two point eight percent for the latest month so that's
not good. This is happening all over the world. Australia yesterday,
same story. They thought two point three came in at
two point four. You see my point. More on the
RB throughout the morning, twelve past six.

Speaker 1 (05:06):
The Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on Aheart Radio
How of My News talks.

Speaker 2 (05:12):
EB if you've missed it, the Love Affairs over. Elon
Muskus says, is those work is all being undone by
this big, beautiful bill. It's not going to help the
nation's finances, which of course it's not, because it's going
to increase the debt. I think a bill can be big.
I think a bill can be beautiful, but I don't
think they can be both. So that's Elon and Trump.
I overmind you, A lot of us saw that coming
fifteen pass right open. J My Wealth Andrew kelliher, good morning,

(05:36):
Good morning, Mike. What do you make of yesterday?

Speaker 8 (05:39):
Well, it was a little more interesting than I thought
it would be. Yeah, we got the twenty five basis
point cut didn't, but it wasn't quite as simple as that.
So I think, as you've been talking about, the decision
was not a consensus decision, and we don't, as you said,
we don't often see them vote.

Speaker 5 (05:54):
So they had two options.

Speaker 8 (05:56):
They could leave the raid at three and a half
or reduce it to three and a quarter five one.
So there was a dissenting member there. Well, the thing is, Mike,
the market voted on this as well, because wholesale interest
rates moved up after the announcement, And look in the
wholesale markets, Mike, a ten basis point move in the
five year in the five year rate, that's a decent move.

(06:16):
So interest rates were higher. Now, on the face of it,
the announcement was as expected, twenty five basis point cut
slightly lower four track for the ocr now seen at
two point eight to five by the end of the year.
That's the average in the last quarter of the year. Now,
that could imply a two point seventy five per cent
rate by the end of the year, or it could
just be how the RBNZ model sort of works out.

Speaker 5 (06:40):
I suppose, just sort of step through their commentary.

Speaker 8 (06:42):
Inflations within the band New Zealand economy is recovering after
a period of contraction. Inflationary expectations we've talked about those.
They noted they've increased projections for global economic growth have
weakened since the February statement. On balance, Mike, the committee,
the Monetary Policy Committee expects the increasing global tariffs to
result in less inflationary pressure and then the zeal economy.

(07:05):
But this is the butt. Here's where the uncertainty starts
to kick in. So the MPs has a central case.
Remember yesterday I said, you know there's going to have
they could have these an alternative scenario. Well they've got
alternative scenarios, so they've.

Speaker 5 (07:19):
Covered all the bases. So there's two of them.

Speaker 8 (07:21):
There's a demand shock scenario. That's when you get negative
global demand, you get a reduced demand for our exports,
you get potentially some product dumping here, and that means
from Decembro on was they'd.

Speaker 5 (07:33):
Need a lower OCR.

Speaker 8 (07:34):
But there's also the supply shock scenario. So you get
negative global supply shock. You know, supply chains are all
mucked up, import prices are higher, the exchange rate is lower.

Speaker 5 (07:44):
That means inflation is a problem.

Speaker 8 (07:46):
So the OCR has to go higher from Decembron was
as well. So what they've got, Mike, is they've got
optionality could go either way from their point of view.

Speaker 5 (07:55):
That makes sense, but it doesn't really help correct everyone else,
does it.

Speaker 2 (07:59):
You know, sorry to interrupt your fly, but you can't
anyone can come up with that.

Speaker 8 (08:05):
Yeah, this is the problem you sort of and it
does make you wonder, doesn't it about?

Speaker 5 (08:08):
You know, you used to have quite a strong character
as the governor.

Speaker 2 (08:12):
You might not have.

Speaker 8 (08:12):
Always agreed with him, but you had a you know,
you had a view. There seems to be less of
a view here now. They could argue that this is
just the turning point. This is what happens when you
get to the turning point, uncertainly starts to creep in.

Speaker 5 (08:26):
But Hawksby said that the Arvin said, doesn't have a
bias over the next move.

Speaker 8 (08:30):
So the language about the next move is not unequivocal.
It's not a certainty. That's a key theme. So you're
on the first reading it seemed dubvish, oh see downtrack
a bit low, but it's actually a hawkish cut, and
that market expectations were more dubvish than what we got.

Speaker 5 (08:45):
So you know, you're left with the grand.

Speaker 8 (08:48):
Populace, the hoy pelloi out there and say what does
this mean for mortgage rapel? Well, and the answer is.
It depends which scenario plays out.

Speaker 2 (08:56):
He's not doing us any favors as far as I
can do. He looked new, and he kept looking at
his mates and Silk and coming. Look, they look like
they've been locked in a room for two weeks and
don't know what the hell's going on.

Speaker 8 (09:08):
Yeah, look, look, by its nature, it's an uncertain point
of time.

Speaker 5 (09:11):
But isn't that when you want leadership?

Speaker 2 (09:12):
Correct? Couldn't agree more Infratil Fisher they all seem good.

Speaker 8 (09:17):
Yeah, yeah, good results, but sort of you wouldn't but
you wouldn't think it to look at how the market
has reacted because the index was down, the insect fifty
index down one point seventy five percent.

Speaker 5 (09:26):
So let's try and sort of encapsulate this very quickly,
very succinctly.

Speaker 8 (09:30):
They were good results, but the market's reacted to the
forward guidance. So in a fishing Pole healthcare, solid result,
revenue up sixteen percent, over two billion dollars of revenue
for the first time and expecting further growth. But the
market was expecting more from twenty twenty six. So they've
got higher revenue, but the market just market wanted more.
You've got to remember Fish and Piper is historically very

(09:52):
conservative over their guidance infratil. That's a complicated business, heaps
and moving parts. There was a six percent down reaction
in the shaf Proce yesterday. Big increase in the value
of data tend to CDC sixty three point six. Actually,
one thing I do want to note here, Mike, absolutely
massive lift in the fees paid to Morrison and Co.
Three hundred and forty six point nine million dollars worth

(10:14):
of fees. They could single handedly those the people at
Morrison Co. Kickstart the Wellington economy.

Speaker 2 (10:20):
Without who Morrison Co is Old James shawon't it e?
He's gone gone for the good? What on earth's going
on with Eboss by the way, a billion Cyboss selling?
What are they doing?

Speaker 5 (10:31):
Cybos Well?

Speaker 8 (10:31):
Cyboss is the investment vehicle associated with the Zwelling family.
Their business merged with Ebos back in twenty thirteen. After
the market closed last night, they've sold a big chunk
of shares, almost a billion dollars worth of shares. Massive
You could see some selling on the market today for
institutional investors to fund that.

Speaker 5 (10:48):
But a big exciting stuff mate, Well is.

Speaker 2 (10:50):
It okay or worrying one or the other. Now, what
are the numbers the.

Speaker 8 (10:54):
Doubt Well, everyone's waiting for everyone's waiting for Nvidio to
announce it. Within a couple of hours, the Dow Jones
is down one point three percent, the S and P
five hundred down point one five percent, and the Nasdaq
is barely moved. The forty one hundred foul points five
nine percent overnight, the NICKK barely moved, Shangho coms that
barely moved. The A six two hundred lost point one
three percent is to eight three ninety six, and we

(11:15):
closed at twelve thousand, three hundred and sixty two, down
one point seventy five percent. Kiwi dollar point five nine
sixty one against the US but nine twenty seven five
Ozzie point five two seven eight euro point four four
to two five pounds eighty six point three six Japanese
end gold three thousand, two hundred ninety six dollars break
through sixty five dollars and four cents.

Speaker 2 (11:33):
Good Man, see you tomorrow, appreciated. Andrew kelliherjoemowealth dot co
dot m z pasket mentions on KFC seven thousand new
jobs across the UK and Ireland. They're investing one and
a half billion pounds, so three billion dollars for new restaurants.
First ever British restaurant was sixty years ago in Preston.
New stores, five hundred new sites, one thousand restaurants across

(11:55):
the UK and island. Jobs galore. Just what Britain needs
more fried chicken six twenty one at news Talk said.

Speaker 1 (12:06):
The Vic Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio power
by News Talks at b.

Speaker 2 (12:13):
Tell you what she's a bit doer this morning. European
businesses have never been more gloomy about China. Ever, there's
the EU Chamber of Commerce annual survey seventy three percent
of them doing business in China became more difficult in
the past. Yeah, that's not good. Meantime, watch out for
cann sardines. It's a recession indicator in America and they're
worried about They're having sea tutory parties and see tutory boards.

(12:36):
Sardines A four ninety nine A can in America are
searching on Google has gone through the roof for Newi's
Portuguese sardines and spice olive oil. That's up twenty seven
hundred and fifty percent in terms of searches. Brunswick sardines
and olive oil up four thousand percent. Everyone's buying sardines
because they can't afford to eat properly. Recessions coming six
twenty five.

Speaker 1 (12:57):
Trending now with Chemist Warehouse, Mayhem megasl on now.

Speaker 2 (13:02):
And then you come to the Obamas, who have got
headlines galore of late. Firstly the rumors of marital strife,
Barright going out to dinner of it by himself, and
you're only getting interested in that. Then Michelle turns up
and her podcast talks about going into therapy because her
kids have left home. Then just yesterday though good news,
they were spotted on date night in New York. So
presumably that's the marriage thing sorted out, unless the whole
thing's a scam and they said let's go out and

(13:23):
just get photographed together, and really it's you know. Anyway,
back in DC where am I Security issues, two thirty
in the morning, two female Secret Service Uniform Division officers
are caught on camera fighting. It is alleged it was
started because one was late to replace the other. Here's
a sense of where it was heading. What this girl's ass.

(13:45):
Both have been suspended tending investigation going on what.

Speaker 5 (13:48):
This girl's ass.

Speaker 2 (13:49):
Then we come to the New Zealand Initiative Eric Crampton.
Like Eric might get into a fight with him. So
he's got a blueprint for supermarkets and his argument is
some of it makes sense. He goes, look, people want
to come into the country and they're being held back
by regulation. Now, I would argue, the government's already talked
about this, talked about this ad nauseum, and people like

(14:10):
Nichola Willis are gripped by the banks and gripped by
the supermarkets. Let's say Eric's right. What he argues is,
if somebody wants to come into the country, let's do
a one stop shop. Let's just go where do you
want to be? And I say, right, my costing supermarkets.
I've got twenty seven locations and they go right, we'll
clear them all at once, wear housing shops, clear the
whole thing at once. Tick that box, get into it.

(14:32):
My argument is, even if you did that, which and
that makes sense, Even if you did that, who is
it that's out there that's just desperate to get into
a market of five million people that hasn't already looked
at it already and gone, you know what, the place
is too small. It's the airlines, it's the banks all
over again, same old argument, same old result. But we'll
talk to Eric about that shortly. Then we'll get the
Prime Minister in the studio after seven o'clock and box

(14:55):
them about the years on all sorts of interesting issues. Meantime,
the news is.

Speaker 9 (14:59):
Next Mike Hostgame insightful, engaging and vitally the Mic Hosking
Breakfast with a Vida, Retirement, Communities, Life Your Way, Youth
talks head been.

Speaker 2 (15:12):
Just and we've heard from mister Labrov, who is in
charge of Foreign A fears for the Russians. He's suggesting
Istanbul for some peace talks this coming Monday. I think
we've been here before, didn't We sort of stand by
for a bit of action in Turkey that never really
came to pass. So we've heard nothing from the Ukrainians.
So we've got an update of sorts, not on that
particular suggestion on Putin could be Iran, could be Gaza.

(15:34):
Earlier on from Trump.

Speaker 10 (15:36):
We're not happy about that situation. I think we're we're
doing very well with Iran. I think we're doing very
well with Gaza, but we are doing very well with Iran,
and I think we're going to see some some something
very sensible, because there are only two outcomes, you know,
with the two outcomes, there's a smart outcome and there's

(15:56):
a violent outcome, and I don't think anybody wants to
see the second. But I think we're we've made a
lot of progress and we'll see.

Speaker 2 (16:06):
Fortunately that sorts, that doesn't it. I'm so glad you're
seeing that gas is going well because I'm watching something different.
Twenty two minutes away from seven Jose in Europe, shortly
back here, the New Zealand Initiative back this morning, looking
into this much debated supermarket setup of ours. They've got
a blueprint, they claim fast track plans for rezoning, consenting,
investment clearance and more neutral stamps required for the government.
Eric Crampton, chief Economist, as well 's Eric, morning to you.

Speaker 11 (16:29):
Good morning.

Speaker 2 (16:30):
You're talking already to a partially converted government. The government
seem to be on your side. Is there something Why
haven't they done what you're suggesting? If what you're suggesting
is workable.

Speaker 11 (16:40):
I think that they're expecting that resource management reform that
Minister Bishop is progressing will solve the problem, and we
hope that they're right. But the government is in a
big hurry to affect faster changes competition in the sector.
This will give them a pathway to do that on
the timetable that Minister Willis is looking towards, and it
would bring forward the kinds of changes that we're expecting

(17:01):
from the next set of resource management reforms.

Speaker 2 (17:03):
Why haven't they thought of what you've thought of?

Speaker 11 (17:07):
I expect that they would have been told that it
was too it would take too long to put together
the kind of package that we've put together. The bureaucracy
moves a little bit more slowly than we do. We
think that this could be drafted fairly quickly and then
introduced by the Christmas.

Speaker 2 (17:19):
Why would you block out for a free thinker, Why
would you, in looking to fast track all the people
who want to come to the country legitately opened supermarkets,
block the current players out of that process if they
wanted to do something with the new rules as.

Speaker 11 (17:31):
Well, well, we have that sunset it actually, so the
Minister is really keen on getting new entrants, so she's
talking about some pretty dramatic moves for doing that ones
that don't respect property rates very well and introduce a
lot of uncertainty into the sector. We're suggest suggesting that
a new entrant should get a head start, give them
five years with access to this kind of planning framework

(17:53):
to find out whether all of the planning barriers are
really what's been holding somebody back, because there have been
a lot of allegians that supermarkets are earning super profits. Well,
international grocers they love profits as much as anybody else,
So if those profits are real and we get rid
of the barriers, they should be jumping in at the
end of that window. Open it up to everybody so

(18:13):
that existing grocers could go in real head to head
competition because right now, town plans often forbid there from
being more than one supermarket in the place, or limit
the size of the supermarkets so they can't compete with
each other too much. It's insane. We need to change it.
This will enable more entry or expansion from an existing
small New Zealand player.

Speaker 2 (18:33):
But you're rigging the market, and what if you're wrong,
and what if you kill the supermarkets in the main
time while they're sitting there whiting for five years for
a whole cluster to unfold.

Speaker 11 (18:41):
Well, they've already got an awful lot of stores, they
would continue with those. This would let a new entrant
come in get themselves established before the existing ones started expanding.

Speaker 2 (18:51):
Jeez. So you're on the same side as the government.
There is something wrong with the market. Yeah, And simple.

Speaker 11 (18:58):
Terms, what is wrong with the market is that it's
been basically like, you can't say illegal because you wouldn't
throw somebody in jail for trying to start up a supermarket.
But the processes that we have layered on top of
any of this make it effectively illegal. Like maybe a
costco can come in and set up one big site
and that's awesome, but it's been pretty much impossible to

(19:19):
set up a new version of like wool Worth or
New World or like a tesco.

Speaker 3 (19:24):
And you are apart.

Speaker 2 (19:26):
You are confident that if you did this, there are
people out there globally at scale that would go we're
in boots and.

Speaker 11 (19:33):
All I'm not. This is this is a way of
discovering it, right. So the minister has been going out
trying to find international entrance. You hear scuttle about around
town of various players who may have said said no,
but that's all within the existing planning framework that makes
it painful to try to enter the new deal in market.
This lets us discover whether a new entrant would really

(19:55):
want to come in and whether there really are superprofits
here to be chasing after all.

Speaker 2 (19:59):
Right, Good to have you on the program as always.
Eric Crampton, who's the chief economist at the New Zealand Initiative,
nineteen minutes away from seven task at very good news
on touris Milford Track sold out in thirty minutes yesterday,
which is these are part of the Great Walks. They
opened for booking. Last couple of years been a mess
because the website's crashed. I don't have a breakdown of
how many people are local and how many are international

(20:20):
because that's a revenue scream issue for another day perhaps,
But it worked well allegedly yesterday eleven eight hundred people.
We're in the Milford Q chasing just seventy one hundred spots.
Very Taylor swift, doesn't it really? Twenty three five hundred
bookings so far across all the Great Walks. You can
still get access to the Able Tasman and the HEAFI,
but the hot ones are already gone. Eighteen to two.

Speaker 1 (20:42):
The Mic Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered
by News Talks EP.

Speaker 2 (20:49):
Mike, our primary exporter is going well. I'm in international
logistics with a broad client base and we're pretty good
barometer for importers. We've been waiting a year for economic turnaround.
It's actually getting worse. Our money comes from customers and
the volume of imports it's been down up to thirty
percent for a year in the last few months, even worse.
There's a hell of a lot of pain out there.
Very good point. I'll come back to it in the moment.

Speaker 12 (21:09):
Six forty five International correspondence with ends and eye insurance,
peace of mind for New Zealand business and I've.

Speaker 2 (21:16):
Got to get to early Joe morning, Good morning mine.
So what are they cooked up here? So we've got
the manufacturer's got the service companies and they're bandying together
and it's Disneyland timers. Is that how it's going to happen?

Speaker 13 (21:28):
Well, Confine Austria, the largest employers group in Italy, wants
greater government action stimulation to help investment, support and support
these businesses to boost Italy's GDP by two percent. I
think that's a little ambitious, an urgent government action to
control energy costs, which are among the highest in Europe,

(21:50):
if not the highest.

Speaker 2 (21:51):
Right any sense that the government might be interested in
doing something.

Speaker 13 (21:54):
Like this, well, I think there's a lot of respect
between the employers and Georgia Maloney, the minister. She says
she's open to offering greater support and wants to simplify bureaucracy.
She's made that promise before we're waiting for action. She
wants to look at energy costs. But you know, I
think really they really need to see some demonstration that

(22:16):
the government is going to offer greater support, particularly on energy.

Speaker 2 (22:19):
Would you call her broadly pro business?

Speaker 13 (22:22):
Definitely pro business, and I think they love her. They
see some very good action so far, particularly pledging to,
for example, redirect fifteen billion euros from the pandemic recovery
funds to boost employment and productivity. She's done some big
deals internationally and I think they see her as very

(22:43):
pro business.

Speaker 2 (22:44):
See the reason I asked that is given she's from
the center, right, how much of it's about her going
how about you guys get your BacT together and get
on with doing business? Is what conservatives are all about
business meet handing out endless amounts of government money.

Speaker 13 (22:57):
Yeah, but I thought I think we saw her cut
back the support for unemployed and people who were relying
on government benefits. When she first came in. That was
one of the big beefs of employers and she took
action immediately. And I think that's been an indication of
her support for them. And let's see what happens next

(23:17):
because the government, because the economy is not in very
good shape.

Speaker 2 (23:21):
We had mate, We've talked to you the other day
about Macron. He's been in Vietnam, of course, so he
now is going to meet Maloney with a view to
what they'm actually getting on once and for all or not.

Speaker 13 (23:31):
Yeah. Well, as we know, they haven't gotten on very
well in the past. We've seen certain incidents, including the
G seven Inmpornia last year, where they had a very
cool encounter with each other. They're going to have a
bilateral meeting next week and I think that's being described
by the Italian media as a thaw in relations. So
let's see what comes up there.

Speaker 2 (23:52):
Is that a personal thing or just an ideological thing.

Speaker 13 (23:57):
I think it's a bit of both. Really. I think
it's it's really a personal thing. On the other hand,
we've seen what an amazing relationships she's forged with American
President Donald Trump, and Keirs Darmer loves her. So I
think it's really a personality thing.

Speaker 2 (24:15):
Is she likable? You know, if I ask the average Italian,
I mean, does she come across as a likable, engaging
person or not? Really?

Speaker 13 (24:23):
I think she strikes a good balance of being tough
when she's required, and her voice is certainly very harsh.
It doesn't really match her appearance, and yet at other
times she reaches out to mothers and families and has
a way of really balancing the two.

Speaker 2 (24:40):
Interesting there is the Airbnb. I'm following the Airbnb with
a great deal of entrist because, of course, in Spain
they're banning people from running your house as an Airbnb
because no one can afford the rent there, and the
sec of tourists and all of that. I had no
idea in Italy that the host, the owner had to
meet the person. How annoying would that be. I don't
want to meet the owner Airbnb.

Speaker 13 (25:01):
I don't think we're seeing a lot of that. We're
still seeing the key boxes and the remote check ins,
and now we've seen a court decision saying that they
don't have to meet forcing people to meet their guests
in person when they check in. So I think now
we're going to see some pushback because Italian police had

(25:22):
banned the remote check ins in December, and we've seen
government officials actually chopping the devices outside apartments. So there's
still plenty of debate about that.

Speaker 2 (25:35):
Oh it's pleasure, Jo see next week. I appreciate it
very much. Joe mckenner out of Italy World Tuesdays and
Thursdays because, as I keep saying, Catherine's wow and must
ask him when she comes back from Finland what it's
like to go to Finland ten minutes away from seven.

Speaker 1 (25:46):
The Mike Hosking breakfast with Alvida Retirement Communities news dogs had.

Speaker 2 (25:51):
Been by Mike worst recession since nineteen ninety. The commercial
sectors lost its mojo. Mel I'm happy to tell you
you're wrong. We're not in recession, and we haven't been
for a while. We have had sessions, but we are
no longer in one. But here's my point. This goes
back to our friend who text is about the importing.
First of all, importing it could be a good sign.
I mean it's not. I'm just arguing for the sake
of but it could be a good sign because we
don't want to import as much as we sell. We

(26:13):
want to export more. We want to import less, generally speaking.
But if we're importing less, that generally means demand is down.
When demand is down, we're not spending money. That's bad
for the economy. So here's my problem with Christian Hawksby yesterday,
and this is what's wrong with the mandate for the
Reserve Bank. And this is why it dovetails into the
government of the problems they've got with the Reserve Bank
and its current mandate. So Hawksby is busy waxing lyrical

(26:35):
yesterday about the exporters, about dairy, about meat, about Kiwi fruit,
all of which of course is true. But he's looking
at the economy and totality. And I liken it to
having ten people in the room, and ten people in
the room, you go, look what we need to do, guys,
is raise one hundred bucks. And the one person i e.
The dairy, the Kiwi fruit, the wine exporter goes I've
got the hundred done, and Hawksby goes, oh cool, Well

(26:57):
that's our problem. Solved, doesn't it Meantime, nine people haven't
got work and he's not looking at the individual sets
of circumstances within the economy, and that's what's wrong with
the Reserve Bank. I would also go further and suggest,
and he said it himself, that he and the committee
have been locked away in a room for over a
week now. The problem with being locked away in a
room with wonks is you're looking at whiteboards and bits

(27:18):
of paper and you're not engaged in the real world.
And I can tell you for nothing being engaged as
I am every single day in the real world. Yes,
your farm is doing well and fantastic, and yes we're
selling wine and Kooby fruit, But go downtown Auckland, downtown Wellington,
downtown christ Church, look at hospit, look at retail, look
at the services sector, look at the mood. It's not healthy.

(27:38):
And if he then comes out and goes well because
all the people sold stuff overseas were okay and so
there's maybe no more cuts, that's where the trouble comes in.
So more from the Prime Minister shortly five to seven.

Speaker 3 (27:50):
While the ins and the.

Speaker 1 (27:51):
Outs, it's the fears with business fiber take your business
productivity to the next level when.

Speaker 2 (27:57):
We come to this energy So we've got to serve
carried out by the Auckland Business Chamber, businesses believe they're
getting a stiff deal, but are reluctant to speak out
for fear of commercial retaliation from major energy supplies. So
is this real or is everyone paranoid? Eighty eight percent
of respond and say their energy costs have increased in
the last year. Well, it's no news there. Just under
fifty percent described them as highly concerning as they should be.

(28:19):
Two percent say they'd rather not say. Seventy percent say
that their costs have increased by a large to very
large amount. Survey points that it's unclear as to whether
there would be retaliation from the gent tailors if rising
energy costs were made public, but the majority of businesses
spoken to said they wouldn't do it on record, just
in case it jeopardized their ability to secure feuture contracts. Now,

(28:41):
are they paranoid? Are they spineless people? Who? This reminds
me of COVID and all the business leaders I talked
to in private that went they're a bunch of bastards
and they're ruining the country publicly. Well, we've just got
to do what the government sees. Fifty two percent of businesses,
so they've increased their prices they charge to customers as
direct result of rising energy costs. So there's the critical part.

(29:03):
Once again, we're passing costs on. What's that that's inflationary?
Is inflation a problem? Yes it is. Did Christian point
this out yesterday? Yes, he did about a quarter. So
they cut that production and or cut staff, just under
twenty percent of canceled little food investment. None of this
is good for the economy. Are considering eighty percent expect
prices to rise again in the next year, and this

(29:24):
is all the renewables business, and we're going to have
to pay for the future blah blah blah, over seventy
five percent. So the government should treat addressing high energy
costs as a high or very high priority. I believe
that to be the opening questioning for the Prime Minister
who's going to roll in here very shortly. There's too
much stuff going on in the economy that they're not
tackling that they probably could at least have a look at.

(29:45):
And that's before we get to the leaking in the
public service, which I've been talking about on this program
for at least a year. Anyway, Luxom is.

Speaker 1 (29:51):
Next news, opinion and everything in between, the mic costing,
breakfast with the range Rover, the la design and to
intrigue and use TODs Dea'd be.

Speaker 2 (30:02):
Well seven minutes past seven. So the illnesses are both
to the Prime Minister's back and Monday becomes Thursday. That's out,
works Christopher Luxem as well. It's very good morning to you.

Speaker 14 (30:09):
Good to see you, Mike. I know you're a Gema
fibe and I would have been here with the has
mat on Monday and you wouldn't have liked it. So
I'm here on Thursday.

Speaker 2 (30:14):
Well, I'm glad you're back and feeling better. So just
before the News, we gave out the Auckland Chamber of
Commerce Energy. There are energy concerns. First of all from business.
They're afraid to speak out. They believe they're being ripped
off by the gen tailors. They're afraid to speak out
in case when they go for contracts next time they're
going to be punished for that. Here's the more important part.
Fifty two percent of businesses say they've increased their prices

(30:38):
as a direct result of rising energy costs. Yeah.

Speaker 14 (30:40):
Look, I mean there's a number of things on energy.
I mean our immediate fixation as we've had the oil
and gas band, which has meant that we're now pushing
more coal than we are gas, which is not good.
We've now done as several things in the short term
to make sure we don't have a repeat of what
we saw last year, which was we had some of
the highest wholesale electricity prices in the world at one point.
That led to people like mills and high energy places

(31:02):
doing it pretty tough.

Speaker 2 (31:03):
This year. We've got a strategic coal reserve.

Speaker 14 (31:05):
Which we're building, which is not what you want to have,
but you need to have it so you can keep
the lights on, keep the prices down. We've got clear
processes around how we get into the contingent lake storage
if we need to, and we'll continue to explore how
we might do importation of LERG directly into the system.
So you know, I'm just encourage suddenly the Organization Association
to actually talk to Simon Watts about all those issues,

(31:27):
because we are very open to hearing about that. We're
very open to seeing what more we need to do.
We can't have energy be the constraint on the economy
and economic growth.

Speaker 2 (31:35):
But this is part of the stuff tells and what
was happening yesterday with the Reserve Bank and inflation, there
are still people passing on costs. We had the head
of the Ports of Auckland yesterday. I can't remember the number,
but it's a huge number, seventy percent or something like that.
They're increasing forward trucks to get into the port. He
argues two things. One, they want to try and jurymander
the traffic so there's not as much traffic in Auckland.
Come to a different slot. The other thing he wants
to do is hand back more money to the council.

(31:56):
Because the council owns the port. He's charging people more
money simply because he can. And energy you're charging people
more money simply because they can.

Speaker 14 (32:06):
Well, that has that mentality when you get inflation down
at two point two or two point five percent under
the three percent that that we're expecting prices to stabilize
across the system. But we're seeing that in the macro.
We're seeing that in the macro inflation numbers, right are you?
Well you are because they're down at two point five
not seven.

Speaker 2 (32:21):
Well, they're trending up towards two point seven, towards the
top end of the band. That's the problem. My great
concern is that we're not getting the growth to drive
and if we had inflation from growth, fantastic, we're getting
inflation from people charging people more because they can No.

Speaker 14 (32:34):
I think, no, we are seeing real growth in the economy.
You look at what's happened with you know what you're
seeing in dairy. You look at red meat another one
point four billion, two billion dollars this coming year. Look
at horticulture grew twelve percent in the last twelve months,
up to eight billion dollars. Tourism growing at twenty three
percent in terms of spend. So it's a bit two
speed at the moment. But go around parts of the
country a tago Southland cannon hawks.

Speaker 2 (32:55):
But go around parts of the country if you're having
drinks with Christian hawks we last night because here's here's
his problem. So, yes, that part of the economy is brilliant, fantastic,
couldn't be happier. Go downtown Auckland, downtown Wellington, tough, it's
not happening. I agree with you.

Speaker 14 (33:07):
I agree, that's what I'm saying to you, we've been
through a tough time. We are turning the corner because
at least you've got you've got change happening. You've got
some growth happening in different parts of the sector. I
think there's there's starting to be some growth and manufacturing
and services, which is good.

Speaker 2 (33:20):
Well there's no growth, no, no, no, you can't, don't, don't,
don't mislead us. There's growth and manufacturing, ye, multi month
growth and manufacturing's no growth in services and there hasn't
been for ages.

Speaker 14 (33:28):
Well we did earlier in the year, have some start
to growth and it's not as negative as it once was.
But we've got growth coming in that space. I'm just
saying to you it's a natural recovery, which is that
you've got two speed at the moment where you've got
something it's doing really well, some parts not. It will
come to Auckland last well.

Speaker 2 (33:43):
But here's where Christian's got the problem. And I don't
know whether it's his fault, whether it's the mandate's fault,
but he's talking and I liking it to ten people
in the room and he's going we need to raise
one hundred bucks and the dairy farmer number one goes,
I've got a hundred bucks. We're cool, and he goes, fantastic,
economy is right and it's not right, and so yesterday's
busy saying that there are no more cuts coming because
we're right and we're not right.

Speaker 14 (34:05):
Well, I think, I think my read of it is
this huge amount of volatility going forward that he's you know,
that he's trying to navigate. I presume I would expect
that we would want to see continued interest rate.

Speaker 2 (34:14):
Cuts over the period. That's not what he was saying.

Speaker 14 (34:16):
The second bit. The second bit I just say is
that you know the economy is coming, you know, we
are genuinely turning the corner.

Speaker 2 (34:23):
Now.

Speaker 14 (34:23):
The points of fair one which you're making, which is
how do you make sure it's a much more even
that everyone feels that right, that's natural, but where you've been,
where we've been, and then you're trying to get to
where we're getting to, which is more consistent growth across
the whole all sectors in the economy. I think things,
for example, I think, honestly, things like investment boosts are
going to go really well good honestly, like the number
of people are spoken to the last that's been.

Speaker 2 (34:44):
The highlight of the budget. When you go talk to.

Speaker 14 (34:46):
Small mini entrep prices in East Tammicky yesterday, that are
small businesses wanting to invest two hundred thousand dollars in
a C and C machine that's five times more productive
than the one they've currently got. I was in a
place day before yesterday they had equipment from nineteen forty
eight there, you know, And it's just and it's just
that that that twenty percent just means that that just
makes those proposals, those business cases cash flow positive and

(35:07):
therefore they pull those forward. I reckon you're going to
see a massive field days, you know this this year
with people buying tractors and headers and also.

Speaker 2 (35:13):
But once again that's a reflection of the rule of contralads.
It's true. I know it doesn't flow through to Queen
Street unless you're a bank.

Speaker 14 (35:21):
But it will ultimately, right, it is, it is, it
is starting to when you look at our export led
growth that's actually been happening, which is what you want
to see. You know, we've had twenty one percent growth
of the UK with twenty.

Speaker 2 (35:33):
Eight percent growth the EU.

Speaker 14 (35:35):
You know, we've got core core sectors growing really well, tourism,
education coming back strongly. Those are things that start to
give you confidence that. That's why I say confidently we
are turning the corner.

Speaker 15 (35:45):
Good.

Speaker 2 (35:45):
All right, I hope you're right, But I know what
you're saying.

Speaker 14 (35:47):
It's got to be even it's got to.

Speaker 2 (35:48):
Be more than the whole leaking in the public service.
Let's take a break and talk about that. In the
moment thirteen past seven, the.

Speaker 1 (35:55):
High Asking Breakfast Fall Show podcast on iHeartRadio powered by
News Talk.

Speaker 2 (36:00):
Be you stebe sixteen past eight. The Prime Minister is
with us just to wrap up the Christian Hawksby thing
because it was ironic. I saw you and Nicola yet again,
come out as you do as you should and go
interest rate cuts fantastic money flowing into the economy. If
there are no more interest rates cuts, which is what
I got from Hawksby yesterday, because he's neutral on it,
then what are you going to say?

Speaker 14 (36:19):
Yeah, well, I mean it, I didn't take that is
there's no more cuts coming read it.

Speaker 2 (36:23):
He's neutral. You wouldn't have a clue.

Speaker 16 (36:25):
Yep.

Speaker 14 (36:25):
But that doesn't mean that they're not coming right. I mean,
but that aside, I mean, the cool thing is that
we've seen a two point two five percent reduction in
interest rates. If you got a five hundred thousand dollars mortgage,
that's three hundred dollars a fortnight you've got back in
your pocket. You're spending back in the economy, as we
talked about before, strengtheny, retail economy, centering hospitality. I think
the point I was trying to make yesterday, which you know,

(36:45):
the opposition like to say, oh, well, you've got nothing
to do with it. It's all about the reserve bank.
And the point is you go took to any reserve
bank governor across the world or any economists, and we
had a situation where fiscal and monetary policy did not
work together to actually deal with the challenges we had.
You had ultimately, you know, or eventually decided to stop
printing money and put the foot on the brakes, And
meanwhile Hipkins carried on with the foot on the accelerator,

(37:06):
spraying it all over.

Speaker 2 (37:07):
Yeah, he did.

Speaker 3 (37:08):
Hawks.

Speaker 2 (37:08):
We let you down on that yesterday because the question
was reasonably clear, and he said that you're spending all
lack of spending had nothing to do with it. I'm
assuming I mean in retro.

Speaker 14 (37:17):
Must think about externalities that might be affected, and it's
got to do with you have to have those two
working together. And it's interesting. I saw some great charts
from Sharon Zola showing exactly that where that when it
got disjointed, the volatility and you put an excel same
time cars on the ditch, and that's what happened.

Speaker 2 (37:32):
Exactly, Brian Roach and you and I have talked about
this a number of times. I think, without blowing my
own trumpet, I've been proved to be right this this
this business of leaking in the public service. They don't
like you, they're out to get you. Well, they may
not like us. The point is we have a politically
neutral public service. No you don't know, well, the old
bunch of leakers.

Speaker 14 (37:49):
Well, we've got some leakers, I mean, I think, and
the problem is those leaks actually undermine the actual other
people in the public service are actually very very good,
and I think that's pretty unfair. So I don't know
whether it's more less than what other governments have encountered. Well,
I mean, we've just got to keep reiterrating the point,
and we've got to keep investigating them when they happen
if we can.

Speaker 2 (38:08):
But because I'm more worried about what it does.

Speaker 14 (38:10):
To undermine the public service. Now, the question is you
can in a democracy, you can do wholesale regime change
like you do in the US when a new government
comes in at the political appointees. Even in Australia, there's
a period of time where there's political appointments made early
in a new government. I don't think New Zealanders want that.
They like the idea of a politically neutral public service.
I think we've got relatively few leaks. I know, you know,

(38:33):
it's frustrating when you see it, but the bottom line
is compared to the amount of work we're doing. I mean,
we turned fifty two bills into law last year in
our first year, first part.

Speaker 2 (38:42):
Of the year.

Speaker 14 (38:43):
I mean, that's that's incredible. No one's done that for age.
It's a more work I think in half a term
than people have done in two terms in recent history.

Speaker 2 (38:48):
So you know, there's a lot of threeput.

Speaker 14 (38:50):
Going through and I just think it's disappointing because it
undermines the public service. And I think you know that's
a sision for Brian's get.

Speaker 2 (38:57):
It Derrick A. Stamford, India. Is that a beta that I.

Speaker 14 (39:00):
Mean it personally it is. I mean, she could have
expressed herself better get it. But what she was really
saying was she gets hit with a whole bunch of
unsolicited emails from people all over the world wanting to
come to New Zealand.

Speaker 5 (39:11):
And plead their case.

Speaker 14 (39:12):
You know, in this case, it was to her personal emails.
That's just not right, you know, she was she was
dealing with that as she was saying the volume of
what she's got. But you know, there's no you know,
I'm very relaxed about it. You know, we've got a
great relationship with our gen counterparts. We've already met face
to face on the FTA negotiations, you know, and that's
still got lots of momentum, which is I.

Speaker 2 (39:30):
Only got one minute left, and this isn't your department.
But it does dovetail into what's.

Speaker 14 (39:34):
Wrong with about pass service number twenty seven.

Speaker 2 (39:36):
It's not close, though, wyuku four hundred thousand dollars to
build a raised pedestrian crossing. Explain to me how it
costs four hundred thousand dollars to do that. Yep, I've
got no idea.

Speaker 14 (39:49):
It's a short answer, but I've said, for four hundred
thousand dollars, I'll go out and do a working beyond
the weekend myself.

Speaker 2 (39:53):
But but but that sees everything that's wrong with this
country right now, It doesn't it in terms of pospectivity
and expend.

Speaker 14 (40:00):
I've got to be in the arena trying to turn
it around, and I know it's frustrating, and I get
hit with the stuff each and every day. But by God,
we've got to get more right than wrong, and we've
got to keep trying, keep swinging.

Speaker 2 (40:09):
All right, Christa A luxem It is twenty past seven.

Speaker 1 (40:14):
The Mike Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio, how
It by News Talk SEP.

Speaker 2 (40:22):
Now. Over the past few years, Hollywood has undergone a
huge transformation, as I'm sure you're well aware, but the
type that is the cruise, Tom Cruise has relentlessly succeeded
through all of that. He's back as Ethan Hunt. Of course,
final film Mission Impossible franchise. We got the new Mission Impossible,
which is the final Rickoning directed by Christopher Macquarie. The
film brings all the dynamic action that you've love from
the Mission Impossible franchise for the past almost thirty years.

(40:45):
Mission Impossible, The Final Reckoning is not hitting the brakes on.
The action does all his own stunts. It's brilliant, Tom Cruise.
He's alongside Angelo Bassett, Simon Pegg haileyat Will reprising all
their roles. The film is jam packed with exhilarators and
thrilling drama all right up and an explosive spectacle that
demonstrates exceptional Hollywood filmmaking at its finest. So make sure

(41:06):
you check out Mission Impossible, The Final Reckoning. It's in cinemas,
now get your tickets. It is rated M Pasky seven
twenty three. I'm here actually as it happens this morning,
to help Chris Sipkins the Chipster. The Chipster was in
the building this week. I said hello to him. He
asked me when I was dropping the blacklist that I
have on him appearing on this program. I said he

(41:27):
had appeared already once this year, and that was plenty.
We both laughed. What I like about him is he
doesn't seem to take any of this personally. He knows
I think he's hopeless, and he knows I think he
wrecked the country. And he's playing the long game, and
he knows. I know he will be back next year
in the election campaign, and if he wins, he'll be
back as a regular on this program, which brings me
to the help. In Australia, this week their labor government

(41:48):
approved the extension of a massive gas project would site
Are Australia's largest gas producer, and before the word came
from the government, the company had launched a fairly vigorous
and as it turns out, effective campaign reminding us all that.
So if you want to look at Spain the other
day and in the various parts of Europe that have
been spending increasing periods of time in the dark, you
will find they became obsessed with renewables and that obsession

(42:09):
has led to blackouts. Continuity and consistency of supply, Woodside argued,
is just as important as where you get your energy. Anyway,
Labour gave them the tick. Yes, the conservationists are upset,
but then again aren't they always. The point for Hipkins
is this is a labor government, a labor government that
romped home in an election just the other day in Australia,

(42:31):
a labor government with a gargantuan majority. Why because it's
what you would call an old fashioned labor government, a
labor government of old, a centrist labor government, not a wote, handwringing,
ideologically obsessed labor government of say, twenty twenty through twenty
twenty three. In this particular country. Think of the great
labour names Blair, Hawk, Longee. There your labor governments of success.

(42:51):
Hipkins is your labor government of failure. Albanezi has clearly
learned the lessons of history and worked them nicely to
his favor. Yes he can be sent a left, but
the lights will always be on. See last time the
Chipster was in charge, we stop looking for gas altogether,
and as far as I know, he wouldn't start looking again.
That's the sort of thinking that leads to blackouts, and
in an electorate that doesn't see you as viable posking

(43:15):
Back to coffee, which stubtails into my ongoing ankst around couriers.
So reportags this morning suggesting being and once again you
know what's happening with the price of coffee in terms
of price per pound, price per kilo. No mad coffee
group of commenting this morning, and they're suggesting in reality
we're going to be facing ten dollars a cup before
you know it. So currently it's easily seven dollars. And
I asked this question earlier on the week. I said,

(43:37):
at what point would you pull the pen? And my
answer for me anyway, because I make all my coffee
at home and I don't know why everybody doesn't. And
I know when I say that, you know professionals and
people in the hospital sector will be wanting to kill me.
But I'm pretty sure I'm still running my coffee at
about two dollars forty a coupy in at my house,
even with the new prices I'm paying. But at what

(43:58):
point commercially do you pull the pen? Is seven too much? No,
said one article I read the other day. Seven's fine,
we can still do seven small luxuries. Feel good about yourself.
Ten that's psychological, isn't it? Once you get to ten?
Ten is like, are you serious? Anyway? Back to my
business of overnight couriers. So my beans come from a
small part of New Zealand we get them done overnight courier. Now,

(44:20):
the thing about the overnight caurier you pay extra for
an overnight career service. My question, as we asked yesterday
to the courier company, if you advertise a product and
you say it's overnight career and they don't deliver overnight.
In other words, it doesn't happen. Do they owe you money?
Did they break their contract? Apparently not. And what we
also found out yesterday which was interesting, is where the

(44:42):
coffee beans come from in the particular part of the country,
it cannot be overnight because they will never be picked
up on the day that you order unless you order
on the right day. And there's only two right days
of the week. So if you order on a wrong
day of the week, they know they will never pick
it up on that day. Therefore it will never be overnight.
So therefore, going in to the contract offering the service
they know they can't deliver on. Is that fortulate.

Speaker 3 (45:06):
Yeah, I think you're entitled to a refone there, I.

Speaker 2 (45:08):
Believe I'm entitled to a refund, Glenn. I wish you
were the person on the end of the phone and
stee of the other person on the end of the phone.
They weren't as accommodating as you are, Glenn. But that's
why we're best at buds. Isn't it news for you?
And then we'll talk with Christian Hawksby of the Reserve five.

Speaker 1 (45:24):
That's New Zealand's home for trusted news and views, The
Mike Hosking Breakfast with Bailey's Real Estate, your local experts
across residential, commercial and rural news togs had been because.

Speaker 2 (45:36):
It was tonight. Tammy Neilson's up for some big gonge,
so we'll catch up with her for right looking forward
to that twenty three minutes away from meantime, You Reserve
and Governor gave us a lot to think about yesterday.
Yes the predicted cash rate came or the cut, but
where we go is potentially a bit of a mystery
from here on in Christian Hawksby's with us, Good morning, gooday.
You talked a lot about the committee yesterday. How much
of a committee type atmosphere and a range of views

(45:59):
leads to a lack of decisiveness in times of real
trouble and difficulty.

Speaker 16 (46:05):
I think a committee is a very strong and supportive
thing to have in these times. We do need a
dispersion of views around the table. There's a lot going on.
We need to draw on the expertise and judgments of
all six of us around the table. We did come

(46:25):
to a consensus on the set of projections that we
set out, and that's one where the official cash rate
sort of coming down and baton is around three percent where.

Speaker 17 (46:37):
We had it.

Speaker 16 (46:39):
Where we had to come to a vote on was
what to do with the OCR yesterday and voted in
favor of five to one to two.

Speaker 2 (46:49):
Indeed, I'll come back to the boat if I have time,
But what I got yesterday was blamonge. You don't know
what's going on. And in a way, I don't blame you.
No one seems to know what's going on, but drawing
up a variety of scenarios anyone can do.

Speaker 16 (47:03):
What we're trying to indicate is that we're in a
different phase now. You know, we had the OCR at
five and a half percent, and we were a long
way north of neutral, which is somewhere between maybe three
and a half and two and a half percent. The
OCR has come down a long way now we're in
that sort of zone of neutral. We're in that zone.

(47:23):
So we're not on a pre programmed path from here.
You know, we can't say the market's yet. We're definitely
doing this or that next time. We are more feeling
our way, We are more dependent on developments. Things are
very uncertain, but we're in a really good position just
to respond to things from here, and by giving that

(47:44):
signal to markets, you know, that enables them to think
for themselves as well and assess the situation and move
things around.

Speaker 2 (47:54):
See, I'm thinking for myself and what I'm thinking in
the economy I live, and things aren't going well. And
so you alluded to the obvious things like farmers and
dairy and exports and all of that's absolutely brilliant, But
there are large chunks of the economy that are in
dreadful shape. But because one bit's so good, we're kind
of neutralized everything and everything appears okay because inflation is
in the right band, and I'm just wondering if that's

(48:15):
a problem for us overall.

Speaker 16 (48:18):
Absolutely acknowledge that, you know, there are different speeds in
the economy at the moment, and we acknowledge that there's
actually a lot of spare capacity in the economy, and
that's one of the things that gives us confidence that
even though inflation is still bouncing around the top half
of our band, over the medium term, it is likely

(48:38):
to come down closer and settle around two percent because
of that spare capacity. We have lowered interest rates a
long way, and it does take time for that to
work its way through.

Speaker 17 (48:52):
You know.

Speaker 16 (48:52):
You kind of see that in the effect of mortgage
rates that people feel they are going to come down
mechanically through the course of the year as people shift
on old fixed rates onto new fixed rates, and so
there's a there's a bit still to come there. In
our projections, we have a recovery continuing that's partly supported
by the lower interest rates that we'll have, do you

(49:14):
but it's a it's a modest one given the global outlook.

Speaker 2 (49:18):
I was going to say, where where is it? You're
seeing this recovery park, the farmers and all that stuff
that we obviously get. Where is this recovery and services?
Where is it in downtown Auckland, downtown christ to downtown Wellington?

Speaker 5 (49:28):
Where is it?

Speaker 2 (49:28):
Where is it in the jobs?

Speaker 16 (49:32):
It's not, you know, it's this is the art of
economics and forecasting and projections. You have to look into
the future and you know, even when things are modest,
even things when things are reasonably cool, if the conditions
are there for that to start working its way through,
you know, that's what we have to base our decisions on.

(49:54):
We acknowledge that these things take time. Even lowering interest
rates works through many, many different channels at different speeds.
But we have confidence that there will be that recovery,
but it will be a modest one given the global environment.

Speaker 2 (50:11):
Does the dollar worry you because part of the success
of the export, of course, is this anemic dollar of ours.
And you don't want a ninemic dollar.

Speaker 3 (50:16):
Do you.

Speaker 16 (50:16):
You know, we take the currency, you know, as given,
and we just have to work around that. There's a
lot of chat about the decline of the US dollar
and it's not going to be the reserve currency anymore,
and that might mean KEI we stronger, and that could
be a headwind.

Speaker 3 (50:37):
You know.

Speaker 16 (50:37):
We just need to see how that plays out. I
think that's more of a long term structural thing. Each
time we meet, we'll just look has the exchange rate
worked as a shock absorber like it's supposed to, and
if it hasn't, we'll have to do something about it.

Speaker 2 (50:52):
Okay, just a really quick explanation for simple people. So
the general conversation was a cut was baked in yesterday,
there's another one coming and maybe another one after that.
That all seemed to change yesterday. Have we been hoodwinked,
or have we not seen what's happening? Or are you
just seeing the world differently from the rest of us.

Speaker 16 (51:12):
I think we're getting into the area of fine tuning here.
You know, we've got a.

Speaker 2 (51:18):
Fifty fine tuning Christian. Fifty points is a lot.

Speaker 16 (51:23):
Oh. What is meaning to say is we've got an
official cash rate at three point twenty five percent. We've
got a central projection that's got it somewhere between two
point nine and three point one over the horizon. You know,
compared to the range of the official cash rate we've
seen over history, that's a reasonably tight range. Our main

(51:44):
message is actually around you know, we're very close to
neutral now. Our next move is not going to be
pre programmed. It's going to be about what we're learning
about the future. Is it unfolds?

Speaker 2 (51:57):
All right? Appreciate your time, New Reserve Bank. The least
was months. Christian hawks be more on this in just
a moment.

Speaker 1 (52:03):
Seventeen to two, The Mic Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast
on iHeartRadio powered by News Talks.

Speaker 2 (52:10):
A B fourteen to Mike, the RB cocked up yesterday.
As you say, they were neutral, and the interest rate
market doesn't like neutral. What it sees is if the
RB isn't cutting anyone, the next move must be a hike.
Simplistic view, but that's the reality. So now there are
nearly two rate hikes priced in for twenty six I'm
not sure that's true. Their message should have been simple,
we're cutting, the ocr will continue to cut. Don't get

(52:32):
caught up in the short term inflation forecast, the labor
market struggling and about to go through massive structural reform.
Now the problem with that, although I agree with you,
is that they are of course run by the mandate.
The mandate is about inflation, and so maybe the mandate's
the problem. So you get the and you've got a
little bit of the old Adrian in him having you.
It's just like when I ask about the dollar instead

(52:52):
of no country wants a week dollar, No country longs
for an anemic currency. And yet as you heard them say, oh,
take the dollar for whatever it is. And that's his mandate.
He's in charge of inflation. And if inflation's in the
band and the band is zero to three, it's in
the bands. He doesn't need to worry about anything else.
The fact that your business is closing is not remotely

(53:13):
of his concern as long as inflation's in the band.
What I keep arguing and no one seems to be
able to answer coherently, is if the inflation is in
the band or at the top end of the band,
and the inflation is being driven by things beyond growth,
i e. Power companies putting up prices, ports putting up prices,
insurance companies putting up prices, which leads to more inflation.

(53:34):
In other words, it's not growth driven. What then, Mike,
I'm an accountant. We're not seeing a modest recovery. Businesses
are struggling. The Reserve Bank lives in its own world.
That's the other thing I mean. Honestly, I truly believe
that these guys in Wellington in a room, which is
literally where they spend their lives. He said, We've been
locked up in a room for over a week. You

(53:54):
cannot read the New Zealand economy on spreadsheets and get
a real vibe for what's going on. Mike, I thought
Christian Batett's cornered very well in a showing sense. The
issue we have and previously had was people have been
too aggressive. Either they're on the accelerator or the Brake pedal.

Speaker 5 (54:08):
That's not bad, Paul.

Speaker 2 (54:10):
I'll give you some I'll give you some room for
that argument. Mike, did he say art of the economy
or asked of the economy? Good question? Eleven away from
eight the.

Speaker 3 (54:18):
Mic hosting breakfast with the range Rover the LA News
togs head been.

Speaker 2 (54:22):
Right away away from ate. We've got a new numbers
out this morning that show the trouble we have in
parts of the education system. As far as international students go,
Primary and high school enrollments are down some twenty two
percent on pre COVID levels. Tertiary providers like your polytechs,
not your unis, but your polytechs have seen their numbers
have from one hundred and six thousand to fifty six
thousand now. Doctor Sandra Gray is Tertiary Education Union National
Secretary and is with a Sandra, very good morning.

Speaker 18 (54:44):
To you, Good morning night.

Speaker 2 (54:46):
What are you Rickens going on here? Because last time
I did an interview on the UNIS, the UNIS say
pretty much we're back on the internationals. What's gone wrong
in the other parts of the sector.

Speaker 18 (54:55):
Look, I think there's a number of things we have
to look at. The universities are starting tech growth. As
you say, post COVID, it did cause huge disruption for
our sector and huge destruction for the international students in
our polytechnics. Of course, since COVID, we've had major reforms
which have made the polytechnics really disrupted, real disruption to

(55:20):
the courses office, real disruption for the staff, and that
confuses students. That causes real issues of students who are
looking to study and they go, well, if I can't
figure it out, I'll go somewhere else. And that's what
international students do.

Speaker 2 (55:33):
Do we have a reputation problem generally?

Speaker 18 (55:36):
Do you think New Zealand Tertory education institutions rank really
well internationally? There is no doubt that we rank within
the top five hundred for universities. Our polytechnic students win
World Games and skills and trades consistently, so we don't
have a reputation problem. I think what we have is

(55:58):
a lack of direction problem for our poly techniques. The
fact that we saw the last government and now this
government continually reforming and changing just makes it too hard
an environment for anyone to understand. Staff are leaving great numbers, yes,
and now we see students leaving in great numbers. So
you know, if you disrupt to sector continuously, nobody wants

(56:18):
to join you.

Speaker 2 (56:18):
How do we then explain primary and secondary schools because
they haven't been up disrupted, have they?

Speaker 16 (56:23):
Or have they?

Speaker 18 (56:25):
Well again, COVID totally disrupted that and it takes a
long while for parents to go. I'm keen for my children,
my young people to go overseas. It does take time
to build back. Even the universities aren't back to where
they used to be. They're certainly growing and there's certainly plans.

Speaker 15 (56:43):
To do that.

Speaker 18 (56:43):
I think what we've got to do there is just
accept that it is going to take a few more years.
Not to rush it because that will harm our reputation.
And I am going to say, in terms of the
overall reputation of New Zealand as a place to study,
we are seeing cuts for staffing and staff leaving, which
means there are more students to every staff member. If

(57:04):
we don't address that, that will harm our reputation.

Speaker 2 (57:08):
Well said Sandra, Appreciate your time, doctor Sandra Gray tertiary
Education Union secretary with us this morning, five minutes away
from eight asking speaking which I was just thinking of it,
talk a bit more about rod the US. They seem
to be this fascination they've got with social media and
what you're doing on social media. Yesterday they basically canceled
all appointments in terms of students. And of course we
look at America and go, oh jeez, that's America. What

(57:29):
a weird place that is at the moment, and you
forget there are thousands upon thousands upon thousands of students
from this country alone who go to American universities each
year on things like sports scholarships. I personally know at
least half a dozen, like a name off the top
of the head, who have gone to American universities in
the last I don't know. I guess decade. Studying overseas

(57:50):
for young people has become a thing. I don't know
whether that's got something to do with New Zealand universities
aren't up to much, or perceived not to be up
to much, but anyway, going overseas to study has become
a thing, and there are a tremendous number of New
Zealanders who want to go offshore and if you can
land a spot. We know a young lady who had
a choice between I think was Princeton and Cambridge. She

(58:12):
chose Cambridge, as it turns out, and she's going sure,
because imagine if you're a seventeen eighteen year old with
mum and dad having a look at a prospect of
you going over to America now, and you have no
idea what's going to happen on the campus, what's going
to happen at the border where he's ever going to graduate,
where he's ever going to get booted out of the
country and sent back here. So there are times of

(58:33):
great tumulten up people speaking. Which funny old story yesterday Ki,
we couldn't breathe couldn't talk after cheese race when in
the UK, there was your headline, Ki, we couldn't breathe
couldn't talk after cheese race when in the UK. So
this was the people rolling down the hill cracked a

(58:54):
punching lung. Now, so we want to spend all week
on straight and up walk straight the hell? That weird
thing is right? And once again I reminded, yes it
was a tragedy. A death was a tragedy, but we
want to spend all weekendsting about that. And yet we
don't want to spend two seconds on people rolling down
a hill, puncturing their lung and being unable to breathe

(59:15):
at the bottom. In fact, not only do we not
want to spend two seconds on that, we want to
celebrate it, and we want to celebrate it year after
year after years. So where's the moral police on this one?
So we don't like running in a straight line, but
we don't mind falling down a hill. Falling down a
hill's fun, even if you puncture your lung and can't breathe.
But running in a straight lines we don't like that anymore?

(59:37):
Do we come on? Where's the consistency? A little bit
of music for you? Shortly on the.

Speaker 1 (59:42):
Program, setting me a gender and talking the big issues,
the mic HARKing, Breakfast with a Vita, Retirement, communities, life
your Way, News, togs Head, br.

Speaker 5 (59:55):
Face more than you can't.

Speaker 3 (59:58):
Think us un down to.

Speaker 2 (01:00:03):
It is seven past day. Tammy Nielson seems to be
getting able bigger internationally. Later this year she's touring the
US with Willie Nelson and Bob Dylan. She's into Europe
as well as far as we're concerned. There are five
shows here in October, which is good. The single is
Borrowing My Boots, The album is called Me on Cowgill,
which is out next month, which is exciting in Tammy
Nielson's back. Whether it's a very good morning to you,

(01:00:25):
good morning, how are you? I'm well? Thank you? Do
you join us with rollers in your hair or something?
Are you getting ready for tonight already?

Speaker 9 (01:00:34):
Yeah?

Speaker 15 (01:00:34):
The music awards prep. I have two kids, so my
day starts usually around six thirty and that's every day,
so I'm gonna have to you know, by the time
the awards rolls around, I'm propping my eyes open with
two picks. You know.

Speaker 2 (01:00:50):
Trife day away, But you're up for some awards tonight.
Is it a good gathering? Is it one of those moods?
I haven't been for a number of years, but there's
the mood in the room. You can get a vibe
for the industry as your vibe, but at the moment,
the music industry is in good, good heart or not.

Speaker 15 (01:01:05):
I always love the awards because it is it's a
gathering of our community. It's celebrating each other and lifting
each other up. And you know, when you're a musician,
your career is you're quite siloed. You know, you're you're
out on the road you're not in a work environment
with colleagues, and so whenever we get to have awards,
it's like, I guess, you know, like you guys having

(01:01:27):
a Christmas party. You know, it's like staff Christmas party.
That's when we actually get to all see each other
and celebrate each other.

Speaker 2 (01:01:35):
So yeah, I love it fantastic. These are random questions
that I just need before I forget them. I watched
you video the other day and you're at the Grand
Old Operating. Does that ever get old? Being at the
Grand op?

Speaker 9 (01:01:49):
No?

Speaker 3 (01:01:50):
Hell no.

Speaker 15 (01:01:51):
When you've been waiting thirty years of your life for
a dream to come true and that dream actually comes true,
it can come true, you know, one time or a
hundred times, and it never gets old because it's something
that you've been you've been with. It's making up for
thirty years of want to do it.

Speaker 9 (01:02:08):
You know.

Speaker 2 (01:02:09):
It doesn't have a vibe about it. Is there a
magic about the place?

Speaker 12 (01:02:13):
Oh?

Speaker 15 (01:02:14):
Absolutely? Like you feel like you're you're getting to be
like a tiny little thread in this massive tapestry of
history and country music. And you know you're you're walking
onto a stage, You're standing on a circle in the
middle of the stage that comes from the Ryman Auditorium
where you know Patsy Kleine and Johnny Cash and Elvis

(01:02:36):
Presley all stood on that circle and the history of
not just country music but music itself is you feel
it surrounding you and bouncing off the walls when you
like that.

Speaker 2 (01:02:50):
And and watching and watching the video that outfit you're wearing,
where do you get that from? That must be made
for you.

Speaker 15 (01:02:57):
All that outfit is of course made by my favorite
New Zealand girls, the designers who make most of my dresses,
and it's usually collaboration between Curvy Coture by Judy d
Judy Martin up here in the North Island and then
down in Wellington Zoe Hall, who is one of our
celebrated New Zealand artists. She normally see her work on

(01:03:21):
huge murals all around the country, but she, you know,
shrinks it down from my dresses.

Speaker 2 (01:03:27):
How did that co labby thing come about? Then?

Speaker 15 (01:03:30):
Oh, it was years ago. It was years ago, probably
ten or twelve years ago now that Zoe reached out
to me and said, I'd love to make you a dress.
And her very first dress that she ever made me
was on the cover of my Sassafras album. She made
this incredible Oh god, there, I think there was like
three thousand rhinestones on it. So I met my match.

Speaker 2 (01:03:54):
You know, Well, it's no, It's just it's an eye catching,
fantastic looking thing. The nixt random question I have for
you and we had Fly My Pretties on the other
day Barnaby weird anyway, and I become fascinated with how
long albums take to put together and what's creatively acceptable
and how long did this get take me on Cowboy
take to get put together? And do you ever have

(01:04:16):
the psychological thing thinking I haven't spent enough time on it,
or this thing is you know, correspondingly gone on so
long now I don't know whether it's any good anymore.

Speaker 15 (01:04:27):
I remember once Don mcglash and saying to me, I'm
at that stage in the album creation where you know,
I've written my songs and I'm wondering, like, are these
brilliant or is it just a turd in a milkshake?
And I think of it every time I'm like writing
these songs and going are these good?

Speaker 3 (01:04:45):
Are they turds in.

Speaker 5 (01:04:46):
A milk shak?

Speaker 15 (01:04:47):
But it's uh, He's so eloquent, even in just not
even songwriting.

Speaker 2 (01:04:53):
It's fantastic. So this one took a long time or
a short time, or I mean Nashville's involved with us again,
are they?

Speaker 18 (01:05:00):
Well?

Speaker 15 (01:05:00):
I do my albums all myself and I recorded this
in New Zealand with my New Zealand band at Roundhead
Neil Finn's beautiful studio. And most of my albums, by
industry standards, happen pretty quickly from the time I'm kind
of laying down the music to when it comes out.
It's usually a year, and that sounds long to the

(01:05:22):
average person, but you know, when you're talking an industry
where people take years to make an album. I usually
write my albums and then track them, track them within
a week. So most of my albums are live off
the floor. The takes that you hear are full takes
me and my band in the room performing it live.

(01:05:44):
So there's yeah, it's real. And I think in this
age of you know, impending AI, the more we can
lean into our humanity, you hope that comes through in
the music and connects with other human hearts, you know.

Speaker 2 (01:05:57):
And that's it's so nicely said Tammy Young. Gonna pause
on that and take a break. More than a mine
at thirteen minutes past.

Speaker 1 (01:06:04):
Night the Mic Hosking Breakfast Full Show podcast on iHeartRadio
Power by News Talks.

Speaker 2 (01:06:10):
It be News Talks. It'll be coming up sixteen past
dight Tmmy Neilson is with us. The album Neon Calgaril
out next month. Borrow My Boots is the single. The
Music Awards are tonight. This this William Bob thing? Tell me,
tell me, tell me about that? I mean, how does
that work?

Speaker 15 (01:06:25):
I just I just love how we're just casually William Bob.

Speaker 2 (01:06:28):
Where are William Bob?

Speaker 18 (01:06:30):
Yeah?

Speaker 15 (01:06:31):
I was asked to be part of the Outlaw Festival Tour.
It's a touring festival that's gone on for ten years now.
They started a couple of weeks ago on the West
Coast at the Hollywood Bowl and then they work their
way across the country until basically end of September, and
the lineup kind of rotates all throughout the festival or

(01:06:51):
the tour, but the remaining headliners are always Bob Dylan
and Willie Nelson and the rest of us come and go.
So it's uh, it's it's a it's a tour I've
dreamt of being on for the past Oh my goodness,
five or six years since I heard of it, and

(01:07:12):
and now I can't I can't believe I actually get
to join it.

Speaker 2 (01:07:16):
You've got to have a saint that you've might it now,
don't you. I mean, if if there was Aberny dout,
you've got to have a saint that things have like
coming your way.

Speaker 17 (01:07:24):
Yeah.

Speaker 15 (01:07:25):
I think that everybody has different definitions of making it.
And you know, to some my career wouldn't you know,
wouldn't look like making it for them. However, I get
to do what I love. I get to still live
on the other side of the world, have my family,
have my children, and get to kind of zip out

(01:07:46):
for little pockets of tours that aren't too long away
from them.

Speaker 2 (01:07:52):
And to me, that success.

Speaker 15 (01:07:53):
You know, I know people who are far more I
guess as the the industry call more successful than me.
But they're friends who have you know, they don't have families.
They're on their road twenty four to seven, and that's
not something I'm really interesting.

Speaker 2 (01:08:09):
So it's your success. If you're successful, you're successful this
co writing business. I'm into Nashville before the co writing.
Do you do it all by zoom?

Speaker 15 (01:08:19):
That's you know, I haven't done a lot of co
writing in Nashville other than you know, these couple songs
and it. You know, initially, I really I try to
zoom session. I'm like, this is so weird, you know,
like it's weird not being in the room with someone,
and I do try to write in person as much
as I can when I'm in town. However, this session

(01:08:41):
for Borrow My Boots with Ashley McBride and Shelley Fairchild
was a pretty magical experience.

Speaker 16 (01:08:48):
You know.

Speaker 15 (01:08:48):
It was just like a one hour zoom and we
were basically cackling and laughing for most of it and
a song came out of it, so you know, it
can be a great experience as well. It's not my
preferred way of doing it, but that you know, if
you have to do it, that was the best.

Speaker 2 (01:09:05):
I'm I'm I mean you mentioned round here before, which
is the Finn studio, and Nil's on some of the album.
Isn't he does he just does he like popping? Does
he go you hide my studio? Do you want me
to play something? You'll get some coffee or how does
that work?

Speaker 15 (01:09:19):
He wanders the halls like a ghost. Yeah, No, it's
pretty special. That that My last album was recorded kind
of in the midst between where the world was kind
of closed up and there wasn't a lot of touring
going on, and so Neil was actually home and he
did pop in and you know he I remember him
coming shyly up to me and being like, is it okay?

(01:09:40):
Do you mind? You know you're you're laying all the
strings today and that's a beautiful way to spend the day.
Would you mind if we came and watched him and
Sharon and I'm like, this is your houseboy, like you
can go anywhere you want. But this album, he was
actually overseas touring his new album, Gravity Stairs, and so
he was and around the studio and it ended up

(01:10:03):
I was working the same producer, Steven Shram, who produced
their latest album, was in town from Australia and he
produced my album as well. So it was kind of
this beautiful lucky thing that I got to use Steven
as well. And he's still here has worked with some
amazing Kiwi artists. So with that connection with Steve and

(01:10:26):
I said, oh this, you know the title track keep
Me On Cowgirl, Like do you think Neil would would
put some harmonies on it, and he's like, well, just
ask him, you know, And so I reached out and said,
I don't suppose you would want to, you know, in
the midst of all your touring, you're probably too busy.
And he came back to me right away. He goes, actually,
i'm home in a couple of days before we head

(01:10:47):
off to Australia. I'll be home. Let me get my
stuff set up. And he didn't just lend his vocals.
He like, he put on piano, he did a remix.
He was just he fully invested. He's like, I love
this song so brilliant. He's a gem.

Speaker 2 (01:11:01):
Fantastsolute fantastic. Well, good luck tonight. Album of the Year
Nielsen sings Nelson of course best country music Artist, and
you're in the people's choice of And mind you, you
had the Country music the other day and you won
that as well. What was the lifetime Achievement or whatever
they call it these.

Speaker 15 (01:11:15):
Days, Yeah, for contributions to country music in Alta, which
was pretty I was very surprised by that one. They
just started this honor and I was the first recipient recipient,
so I was I cried my eyelashes.

Speaker 2 (01:11:32):
Of God on you and have you tried the New
iHeart country music station. They whacked you on the playlist,
which I didn't realize you'd never been on a linear
radio station playlist, which I suppose says something appalling about
you know, broadcasting in this country that we haven't recognized
country music before. But there you go, you're on. You know,
you're on a playlist, for goodness sake.

Speaker 15 (01:11:51):
It's it's pretty amazing after all this time. And this
is the first time one of my singles, you know,
it's it's a testament to New Zealanders. All of my
album have gone number one because New Zealanders love country music,
but none of my singles have ever charted or gotten
played on the radio because, as you say, the industry
isn't really kind of cottoned on too country music until recently,

(01:12:12):
and so for the past two decades it's been, you know,
a pretty pretty barren desert when it comes to radio play.
And so this is the first time. I just noticed
this week that my song has gone to number nine
on their Hot Ones chart, which is massive. Yeah, often
really exciting.

Speaker 2 (01:12:30):
Fantastic, great to catch up, good luck tonight, and we'll
get you back real soon.

Speaker 15 (01:12:34):
Thank you mate.

Speaker 2 (01:12:35):
Nice to talk to you. Temmy Nielsen eight twenty two.

Speaker 1 (01:12:38):
The Mike Hosking Breakfast with Bailey's Real Estate News Talks
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Speaker 2 (01:12:43):
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at a Bard Health. Hosking still to come on the program.
I need to get to christ here, jiby time. It's
a funny old thing this announcement yesterday. All these schools
Lincoln Primary are don't need Springs Primary School and Lincoln
they're out in Rolliston, Lliston College, wood End School would
end the name Ballinger old family name of ours. Won't
bore you with the details. But anyway we come. We

(01:14:07):
come from wood End, is what I'm saying. Our family
comes from wood End Sefton School. So the Ministry of
Education was there making all the big announcements on education.
Every time she makes announcements about that particular part of
the area, all you're reminded of is what a booming
part of the country it is. You're not building more
skills and more classrooms because the place is stagnant. So

(01:14:27):
if there is one place that is going off and
obviously long term going off. It is that particular part
of the world. Rod Little is standing by him for
the news next year on the Mike casting Breakfast.

Speaker 1 (01:14:43):
The Breakfast Show, Kiwi's Trust to stay in the know,
the Mic Hosking Breakfast with the range Rover, the la
designed to intrigue and use togs.

Speaker 2 (01:14:53):
That'd be it just make the Erica Stanford yesterday. I mean,
was that Indian thing a complete beat up or what
I mean? For goodness sake? And wonder why it's got
an appalling reputation. So if you missed the story, I
happen to be watching it live of course because I'm
a nerd. She answered the question in the house. It
was about a week ago, and it goes back to
what happened to her personal computer and her using a

(01:15:15):
personal computer versus a government computer, and she said, I
get a tremendous number of emails from all sorts of
people from all over the world asking advice as to
how I get into the country. And it's, you know,
from places like India, and I see it as a
kin to spam. Now they've allegedly gone and got all
upset about that. But here's the point, and there was

(01:15:37):
a person yesterday, I think it was the Labor spokesperson
who was going, why India, Why does she pick on India?
That's racis the reason she mentioned India is it would
have been top of mind because if you look at
the immigration stats, and they're not hard to look at,
there are a couple of places that are booming in
terms of people coming into the country, one of which
is India. In fact, I think India is the top China, India,
the Philippines and Fiji, and so it would have been

(01:16:00):
Hence she made the comment, and that's the end of
the world. And if we're going to get the end
of the matter, and if we're going to get exercised
about matters like this, you know, we've got better things
to think about. Anyway, back to christ Church, when she
announces all these things that she's building, all these schools,
all these new facilities, and this is applicable to any
given minister on any given day, on this particular part
of the world, don't you want to move there? Isn't

(01:16:21):
it one of those build that they will come You're
looking at a place going oh they're expanding, Oh they're
getting better. Oh there are more people going there are
there or there are more jobs there. Maybe I want
to be part of that. That's how it works, isn't it.
It's all about It's all about a mindset. Twenty two
minutes away.

Speaker 12 (01:16:36):
From nine International correspondence with ends and eye insurance, peace
of mind for New Zealand business.

Speaker 2 (01:16:42):
But can we go Rod Little, Good morning mate major
this Liverpool situation which we started funnily enough, it was
unfolding as we were on here the other day. So
we've got the bloke. The bloke seems what to have
been on drugs and a lot of questions around how
he gets to be behind an ambulance and get to
do what he did. Where are we at now?

Speaker 17 (01:17:00):
I think there are interesting things about this aside from
the fact, of course, so we have to remember that
eighty people nearly and there was seventy d people in
the latest gount have been injured by this, although none
of them we think now seriously so the car did
indeed plow into people so at about twenty miles an

(01:17:20):
hour it was following an ambulance. The guy was immediately identified.
In a break with tradition and break with what we
believe was procedure, as a white Britain. This was to
stop people going mad and burning mosques, of course, and
we found out that he's a fifty three year old
company director or businessman, owns a business, has a very

(01:17:45):
respectable houses, adored locally. Nobody could understand it, and I
think the odium which has been bored on him, which
of course quite right, is that he'd made a mistake.
This may not be some pated attack. It may simply
be you followed the ambulance and found himself surrounded by

(01:18:07):
screaming people, didn't know what to do, and that the
drugs may well be prescription drugs. These are all guesses,
but you know, it's one of those things where where
life doesn't turn out quite another as the script.

Speaker 2 (01:18:22):
Had it very interesting. Well, it'll be interesting to see
how it unfolds. And court of course I saw a
fight who have snipers on the roof and all that
sort of thing, and I'm thinking, I mean, there are
questions around, how do you in a function of that
size end up in a car driving down a street
with what happened? How does that happen?

Speaker 17 (01:18:39):
It looks as if you did what quite a lot
of UK drivers do in out crowded country, which is
noticed that there was a heavy build up of traffic,
wasn't getting anywhere? What's the thing to do? Followed ambulance right,
because they'd be to pass through. That's my guess. I mean,
I don't know. Clearly something was amiss, something was missed somewhere,

(01:19:01):
but you know, we can do nothing spontaneously in our
country as crowded as ours.

Speaker 2 (01:19:07):
Mate, we cannot. Does he throw fire? Which I followed
with a great deal of interest at the time when
it was pointed out that they had been warned previously
that the power supplied to the airport was a problem
and they didn't have enough backup in all of those
sort of things. Now we find out the boss was asleep, Yes,
how is this possible? And when his phone's on silent,

(01:19:30):
his food.

Speaker 17 (01:19:31):
Was unsilent and he was asleep. Now, basically the inquiry
has rather exonerated his throw and said that they were
right to have closed the airport because whatever alternative arrangements
they could have been made, couldn't have been made quickly enough,
or had it quickly, But the us of this guy

(01:19:53):
was fast asleep whilst all of this was happening. It's embarrassing.
That being said, Mike, you know, I put my phone
on silence a long time ago, nineteen ninety seven, went
to bed. It rang and rang and rang. I lord
it completely woke up in the morning and apparently was

(01:20:13):
my office telling me the Princess Diana has been Oh you, mister,
I missed it. We all do this, don't we? We
all do this.

Speaker 2 (01:20:23):
I suppose, I supprise. It depends on what you're in
charge of, doesn't it.

Speaker 17 (01:20:27):
Yes, it does. Yeah, well mine was only a national
broadcasting station, so don't worry about that. But you have
to feel whilst glassy, you have to feel a degree
of sympathy, don't you just have to feel a degree
of sympathy exactly.

Speaker 2 (01:20:44):
There's some we were talking on the program Milia this morning,
Marco Rubio and students being banned from Harvard and universities
and cancelations of appointments and you may or may not
even get there. Now we've got this offcom thing. How
broad I mean, how many people are going to be
caught in this nick do you think eventually on what
they may or may not have seen about America at
some point in their life?

Speaker 17 (01:21:04):
Well, I hope lots of them get caught. It's a
wonderful moment Schaud and Floyda for all these appalling people,
particularly off cold which judicates upon what people can and
cannot say on air on radio programs such as What
I Do on a Saturday, and they've already investigated me.

Speaker 5 (01:21:23):
Mate.

Speaker 17 (01:21:25):
I am down with Donald Trump all the way on
this one. So it's basically the crux of it is
if you are silencing American people who wish to tell
you something, even if it's a load of rubbish, then
then you're not allowed into the country. I don't think
it's going to affect many people, but it has cheered

(01:21:45):
me up enormously over the last twenty four hours.

Speaker 2 (01:21:48):
You go, well, we'll catch up next week. Nigel Farage,
he was talking about text breaks for children. He's walking
a very fine line because it's for married people. He's
been the twice and he says he's not a great
advertisement for marriage, but making marriage a little bit more
important is the right thing to do, and it gives

(01:22:09):
children the best chance of success in life, is his arguments.
So there's a tax break coming and he, along with
the Labor Party, would lift and this is interesting given
where he comes from politically, he would lift the cap
that they have on two children in Britain. If you
don't know for benefits welfare, you can have two children
and if you want to have more there is no
more money. He would lift that, as with the Labor Party,

(01:22:31):
which I find interesting. At forty five.

Speaker 1 (01:22:34):
The Mike Asking Breakfast Full Show podcast on I have
Radio powered by News Talks.

Speaker 2 (01:22:39):
At be Mike, I had not heard of the UK
sealing on two children's benefits. How would New Zealand look
different if this was implemented here. It's one of the
many questions I've thought about. And the situation in Britain
seems unique, and yet when you look at it, it
seems so obvious that you say to people, sure, you
can have as many kids as you like, but don't
think the state going to support any number of them.

(01:23:02):
And yet only Britain, as far as I know, has
implemented any policies. The best news I've got for you
so far this morning comes to us from Terra, who's
just announced their results fon Terr a of the company,
their profit after tax one point one five eight billion dollars,
up eleven percent. I'll repeat that, I'll do it a

(01:23:23):
different way. One thousand, one hundred and fifty eight million
dollars up eleven percent farmgate. And you'll realize if you
follow these things, these seasons just wrapping up at the
end of the month. That's how the cow business works.
Farmgate milk price at ten dollars per kilo, So we'll
take that all day long, chat ching. And even more
important than that, their opening forecast for the coming season

(01:23:45):
twenty five to twenty six is ten dollars again, So
it'll go up, it might go down. It depends on
what happens in the world. But to open at ten,
I don't know. I can't even I don't know that
we've ever opened at ten. So this might be record
breaking dividends, Yes, we'll have some of those, please, so
if you're a Fonterra shareholder, So the farmers will be

(01:24:05):
sixty five to seventy five cents a share. I remember,
not so long ago they said twenty five to thirty.
I mean I can remember fifteen to twenty sixty five
to seventy five cents are share paying out ten dollars
per kilogram on the milk solids. That what does that mean? Mike?
As far as New Zealand Inc. Is concerned, Well, what

(01:24:26):
that means is fifteen dollars. Oh no, no, it doesn't
fifteen billion dollars fifteen billion dollars into the New Zealand economy.
So Christian hawksby at the Reserve Bank looks at that
and goes, fantastic. Economy is brilliant. Look at that. But
it's only a bit of the economy. And so I
couldn't be happier for them, And I hope it all

(01:24:47):
flows through to the rest of us, and those of
us who you know aren't doing quite as well as
the farmer. But what a watershed day for rural New Zealand.

Speaker 1 (01:24:56):
Turn away from nine the Mike Hosking Breakfast with the
Yeah Retirement, Communities News Togsdad b.

Speaker 2 (01:25:02):
Now the all new Defender Octor. If you haven't seen it,
go to YouTube, have a look at a video, a
lot of videos on It's just unbelievable. Master of extreme
off road non road performance, unrivaled responsiveness, unmatched capability. Looks amazing.
Got the rise, raised height, got the wider stance, got
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(01:25:22):
the rugged terrain because you're going anywhere in this thing
engines unbelievable. They've hyped it up supercharge V eight six
hundred and twenty six horse power, which is not just horsepower,
sort of hang on type power. Everything you love about
the Defender basically, and they've turned it up to eleven.
So this is the Octa and the Octor's got Octa Mode.
It's a little button on the steering wheel that unlocks

(01:25:42):
calibrations of traction control ABS and V eight performance that's
designed to showcase the vehicles classifying capability. And my personal
favorite is brilliant the sixty Dynamics. It's a suspension system
that responds to driving styles with hydraulic interlink dampers and
high adjustable air springs. It really is a piece of genius. Basically,
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even better. This is the Defender, the most powerful Defender, Ibbermaid.

(01:26:05):
You can go see it at your local lane drive Adila.
To date, asking taco triding is a thing Trump always
chickens out taco.

Speaker 15 (01:26:15):
Also, analysts have.

Speaker 14 (01:26:16):
Coined a new perm called the taco trade.

Speaker 10 (01:26:17):
They're saying Trump always chickens out on your TARFF threats
and that's why markets are higher this week.

Speaker 15 (01:26:23):
What's your response to that?

Speaker 3 (01:26:24):
I kick out?

Speaker 15 (01:26:25):
Check it out?

Speaker 3 (01:26:26):
Oh, then I check it out. I've never heard that.

Speaker 10 (01:26:29):
You mean because I reduced China from one hundred and
forty five percent that I set down to one hundred
and then down to another number, and I said, you
have to open up your whole country. And because I
gave the European Union a fifty percent tax UH tariff,
and they called up and they said, please, let's meet

(01:26:50):
right now. Please, let's meet right now. And I said, okay,
I'll give you till G nine. I actually asked them,
I said what's the date? Because they weren't willing to meet?
And after I did what I did, they said, we'll
meet any time you want, and we have an end
date of July nighth You call that chicken hang out.

Speaker 1 (01:27:10):
Trending now with the Chemist Warehouse Mayhem, Maga sale on now.

Speaker 2 (01:27:14):
They wanted to meet. Then they wouldn't meet, and I said,
when do you want to meet? They didn't want to meet,
but they wanted to meet. Where are my Apple? TV?
Smoke is the new television program Smoked done by the
same people who did Blackbird, which I think I saw
and I think I liked. I want to say I
did and I did, so that's good Stars Taron Egerton.
It's about arson investigator teaming up with the police to

(01:27:35):
stop serial arseners.

Speaker 3 (01:27:36):
I've been tolling to.

Speaker 6 (01:27:37):
Have two Cereal arsonist working this area, no significant leans
on either.

Speaker 3 (01:27:43):
You don't know anything about arsen Yeah, but I know
turn about crime scene analysis.

Speaker 15 (01:27:49):
Cereal arsonists tend to be vioreless in their own lives.

Speaker 3 (01:27:53):
They want other people to know what that feels like.
I don't let them in your head. That's not the
kind of guy that gets in my head. Oh you
feeling lately? You seem a little off. If I suspect
it your husband or a crime, but that shark you.

Speaker 16 (01:28:15):
A crime?

Speaker 3 (01:28:15):
Would that be arsenal crime?

Speaker 15 (01:28:20):
They can be capable of arstin.

Speaker 14 (01:28:24):
I think it's arsen.

Speaker 2 (01:28:26):
That's out on Apple TV.

Speaker 3 (01:28:27):
This is not quiet talking.

Speaker 2 (01:28:29):
That's why I couldn't do it. They just said turn
it down. I couldn't do it. Apple TV, twenty seven June.
If you're into that, I watched a Complete Unknown over
the weekend. I've been waiting for it to become free
on the service that I already pay for, because I
cannot tell you the fury that builds up in me
when I go to the service I already pay for
and then they go, hey, over here is some stuff

(01:28:51):
you can pay even more for, sucker, And I'm thinking,
I am not watching this until it's free. Finally became free,
and then I watched it. We watched it. Katie and
I watched it, and we both agreed it was not
as good as people had made it out to be.
Good movie, nothing wrong with it. Fine, but people came
to us and said, you've got to see it. It's
life changing and he'll win the Oscar and he's the

(01:29:13):
greatest thing in the world and it's incredible. I disagree.
We disagree, and I think where as a unit are correct,
great movie, nothing wrong with it. He's impersonation of Bob Dylan.
Quite good, not great. No, Jamie Fox and Ray Charles,
I can tell you that for nothing.

Speaker 5 (01:29:26):
How about Edward Norton.

Speaker 2 (01:29:27):
Though he was good? Ah, not badway. We're back tomorrow
morning from six a Friday Morning's edition to the Mike
Hosking Breakfast Happy Days for more.

Speaker 3 (01:29:37):
From the Mike Hosking Breakfast.

Speaker 1 (01:29:39):
Listen live to news talks it'd be from six am weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio

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