June 9, 2024 • 5 mins
America’s employers added 272,000 jobs in May, accelerating from April - despite persistently high interest rates.
Devon Funds Management Head of Retail, Greg Smith, told Mike Hosking “Despite all this, the unemployment rate has ticked up to 4 percent.”
Smith said “We’re seeing plenty of new jobs, but some of the old ones are going – I suppose some industries are cutting back as the economy softens.”
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
From Devon Funds Management, Greg Smith, Morning to you, Morning
to you, Mike. How about those jobs, jobs, jobs everywhere.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Yeah, good, good news for the US economy. Complicates picture
for the FED though, So yeah, the US economy added
two hundred and seventy two thousand jobs, and mate, it
was well above the estimates one hundred and ninety thousand. Also,
Aples revised one hundred and sixty five thousand gains, So yeah,
arguably counters affairs of a slow on the labor market,
but also reduces the need for the FED to lower rates.
(00:26):
So you look at the job gains, healthcare, government, leision, hospitality,
that's all consisted of recent trends. In fact, those set
three sectors more than half of gains. Also Fed, we
won't really want to see this wage growth continue to
push up, so up zero point four percent on the month,
four point one percent from a year ago. Though interesting
though that despite all that, sexual unemployment rate ticked up
to four percent, So Mike hasn't been there since January
(00:48):
twenty twenty two, so it does seen a bit of
a mixed message. A labor full participation rate that was
down slightly. Number of people report holding jobs fell by
over four hundred thousand. You have full time work as
they were down by six hundred and twenty five thousand
that you had part time workers showed up almost three
undred thousand, so you were seeing plenty of new jobs
might but some of the old ones are going. So
(01:09):
I suppose some industries are cutting back as the economy softens.
Ordered it a dial emma for the feed. They meet
this week, so we'll hear what JPOW has to say
on the matter and also get that feed dot plot.
But market's currently pricing in fifty five percent chance at
a rate cunt and September, and that's down from seventy
percent before the reports, so it's looking more like a
coin flip. What's it gonna be interesting to see? I
think what the feed makes of the central banks are doing.
(01:31):
So you've got Sweden, sort's another already ease, and last
week we had a Bank of Canada ECB they cut
rates for the first time in years. So there's implications
on trade competitives, and if you look at it might
be surprising. Canada's almost seventeen percent of US exports, Europe's
around about twenty percent, so you know the US is
already running trade deficits. These could get worse affections by
the central banks to value their currency as well. The
(01:52):
feed remains on hold, so yeah, it's all plenty for
the fed.
Speaker 1 (01:56):
Chewn tell me as a serious investor, why people look
at Roaring Kitty and pay any attention to this nonsense,
not only once but again when it comes around.
Speaker 2 (02:06):
Yeah, it's all a bit weird. I mean, it's nothing
to do with fundamentals. So yeah, it's just about momentum
what people are posting on social media. And this is
Keith Girl who's known it is raw and Kitty, and
he's back. We haven't heard from him since the pandemic,
but he's been sort of posting screenshots of his brokerage
portfolio shows that you know, if he exercised all his courttions,
he's got a billion dollars worth of stock. And this
(02:28):
is really getting likes of GameStop in particular. Moving training
has sprung to life in recent weeks. He scheduled his
first live stream on YouTube for a much years, almost
four years of this day in gamestock that's sorted fifty percent.
On Thursday, he had his YouTube sort of spiel and
then people said always he shouldn't say that much, particularly new.
(02:48):
So she has went down forty percent. So he reveals
he's made fifty million bucks on paper during one trading session.
He's still got around about a half a billion, and
shears and it's not fundamentals, why ye, right, it's more
about his popularity on social media, interesting, whether he attacks attracts,
and the sort of regulatory scrutiny the SEC apparently even
(03:09):
looking to sort of get involved in and look at it.
He actually not told you when explicitly to buy GameStop shares,
just posted memes and give some short video clips, et cetera.
Some connection, you argue, is either Warren Buffett will probably
probably not probably vastly vastly different, vastly different. But I
suppose he's been seen as a modern day Robin Hood.
(03:29):
I mean, hedge Funds lost a fortune during the pandemic,
the wise that it was short likes of GameStop and others.
And yeah, if you got regulatory scrutiny, would people sort
of get behind him even more in terms of his followers.
For what it's worth, If we want to talk fundamentals,
might the video game retailer game stop they were porting
numbers on Friday. They made a quarterly loss of thirty
two million US dollars, but it was down from fifty
(03:50):
point five many a year ago quarterly sales they dipped
point nine billion, So yeah, visual game stop looks a
bit like jumping on the roulette table really at the casino,
certainly making for a while knuckle ride for those on board.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
All right, give me some numbers.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Okay, so we've got the US mark's actually stepped back
from record levels but had a winning week. The dow
down point two percent, thirty eight to seven nine eight.
And there's that down point two percent, seventeen one to
three three is in P five hundred down point one percent,
five three four six forts one hundred and a half percent,
nicke down point five percent, A six two hundred up
point five percent, NZ fifty down one percent. Gentails obviously
(04:25):
provided a bit of momentum earlier in the week. Gold
down eighty two bucks twenty two and ninety four and
ounce oil that was pretty flat. Seventy five spot fifty three.
US currencies Q was weaker across the board, sixty one
point one against the US, ninety two points seven against
the A dollar also down one percent against Stirling forty
eight pence. We'll get there for a Kiwi dollar this
(04:46):
this week, Mike, We've got some use inflation numbers. We've
got that FED meeting. We've also got the Bank of
Japan back home card spending, business PMI and food inflation.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
Now the busy wait. Appreciate your expertise. Greg Smith, Devon
Funds Management.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
For more from The Mic Hoski Breakfast, listen live to
news Talks at B from six am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio
From Devon Funds Management, Greg Smith, Morning to you, Morning
to you, Mike. How about those jobs, jobs, jobs everywhere.
Speaker 2 (00:06):
Yeah, good, good news for the US economy. Complicates picture
for the FED though, So yeah, the US economy added
two hundred and seventy two thousand jobs, and mate, it
was well above the estimates one hundred and ninety thousand. Also,
Aples revised one hundred and sixty five thousand gains, So yeah,
arguably counters affairs of a slow on the labor market,
but also reduces the need for the FED to lower rates.
(00:26):
So you look at the job gains, healthcare, government, leision, hospitality,
that's all consisted of recent trends. In fact, those set
three sectors more than half of gains. Also Fed, we
won't really want to see this wage growth continue to
push up, so up zero point four percent on the month,
four point one percent from a year ago. Though interesting
though that despite all that, sexual unemployment rate ticked up
to four percent, So Mike hasn't been there since January
(00:48):
twenty twenty two, so it does seen a bit of
a mixed message. A labor full participation rate that was
down slightly. Number of people report holding jobs fell by
over four hundred thousand. You have full time work as
they were down by six hundred and twenty five thousand
that you had part time workers showed up almost three
undred thousand, so you were seeing plenty of new jobs
might but some of the old ones are going. So
(01:09):
I suppose some industries are cutting back as the economy softens.
Ordered it a dial emma for the feed. They meet
this week, so we'll hear what JPOW has to say
on the matter and also get that feed dot plot.
But market's currently pricing in fifty five percent chance at
a rate cunt and September, and that's down from seventy
percent before the reports, so it's looking more like a
coin flip. What's it gonna be interesting to see? I
think what the feed makes of the central banks are doing.
(01:31):
So you've got Sweden, sort's another already ease, and last
week we had a Bank of Canada ECB they cut
rates for the first time in years. So there's implications
on trade competitives, and if you look at it might
be surprising. Canada's almost seventeen percent of US exports, Europe's
around about twenty percent, so you know the US is
already running trade deficits. These could get worse affections by
the central banks to value their currency as well. The
(01:52):
feed remains on hold, so yeah, it's all plenty for
the fed.
Speaker 1 (01:56):
Chewn tell me as a serious investor, why people look
at Roaring Kitty and pay any attention to this nonsense,
not only once but again when it comes around.
Speaker 2 (02:06):
Yeah, it's all a bit weird. I mean, it's nothing
to do with fundamentals. So yeah, it's just about momentum
what people are posting on social media. And this is
Keith Girl who's known it is raw and Kitty, and
he's back. We haven't heard from him since the pandemic,
but he's been sort of posting screenshots of his brokerage
portfolio shows that you know, if he exercised all his courttions,
he's got a billion dollars worth of stock. And this
(02:28):
is really getting likes of GameStop in particular. Moving training
has sprung to life in recent weeks. He scheduled his
first live stream on YouTube for a much years, almost
four years of this day in gamestock that's sorted fifty percent.
On Thursday, he had his YouTube sort of spiel and
then people said always he shouldn't say that much, particularly new.
(02:48):
So she has went down forty percent. So he reveals
he's made fifty million bucks on paper during one trading session.
He's still got around about a half a billion, and
shears and it's not fundamentals, why ye, right, it's more
about his popularity on social media, interesting, whether he attacks attracts,
and the sort of regulatory scrutiny the SEC apparently even
(03:09):
looking to sort of get involved in and look at it.
He actually not told you when explicitly to buy GameStop shares,
just posted memes and give some short video clips, et cetera.
Some connection, you argue, is either Warren Buffett will probably
probably not probably vastly vastly different, vastly different. But I
suppose he's been seen as a modern day Robin Hood.
(03:29):
I mean, hedge Funds lost a fortune during the pandemic,
the wise that it was short likes of GameStop and others.
And yeah, if you got regulatory scrutiny, would people sort
of get behind him even more in terms of his followers.
For what it's worth, If we want to talk fundamentals,
might the video game retailer game stop they were porting
numbers on Friday. They made a quarterly loss of thirty
two million US dollars, but it was down from fifty
(03:50):
point five many a year ago quarterly sales they dipped
point nine billion, So yeah, visual game stop looks a
bit like jumping on the roulette table really at the casino,
certainly making for a while knuckle ride for those on board.
Speaker 1 (04:01):
All right, give me some numbers.
Speaker 2 (04:03):
Okay, so we've got the US mark's actually stepped back
from record levels but had a winning week. The dow
down point two percent, thirty eight to seven nine eight.
And there's that down point two percent, seventeen one to
three three is in P five hundred down point one percent,
five three four six forts one hundred and a half percent,
nicke down point five percent, A six two hundred up
point five percent, NZ fifty down one percent. Gentails obviously
(04:25):
provided a bit of momentum earlier in the week. Gold
down eighty two bucks twenty two and ninety four and
ounce oil that was pretty flat. Seventy five spot fifty three.
US currencies Q was weaker across the board, sixty one
point one against the US, ninety two points seven against
the A dollar also down one percent against Stirling forty
eight pence. We'll get there for a Kiwi dollar this
(04:46):
this week, Mike, We've got some use inflation numbers. We've
got that FED meeting. We've also got the Bank of
Japan back home card spending, business PMI and food inflation.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
Now the busy wait. Appreciate your expertise. Greg Smith, Devon
Funds Management.
Speaker 2 (04:58):
For more from The Mic Hoski Breakfast, listen live to
news Talks at B from six am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio
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