John Foreman: Former UK Defence Attaché in Moscow says both Russia and Ukraine seem to be trying to influence Trump into how the end the war

Ukraine and Russia look to be heading towards a ceasefire - but it could be messy.

Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's hinting he'd temporarily cede territory to Russia – if the whole country's extended an invite to NATO.

Former UK Defence Attaché in Moscow John Foreman told Mike Hosking both Ukraine and Russia seem to be trying to influence Donald Trump ahead of him taking office – but Trump's kept his cards close to his chest.

He says the only clarity we have is from Trump tapping General Kellogg to serve as special envoy – who wants to delay NATO membership, but offer Ukraine security assurances.

LISTEN ABOVE

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Now a couple of international developments over the weekend. One
Zelensky seems to have blinked Russia can have some territory
if Ukraine gets to join NATO to the Syrian wars
back former uk de vincit in Moscow. John Foreman's with
us from Britain morning, good boy. Indeed, does Zelensky move
over the weekend week or not?

Speaker 2 (00:19):
No? I think it was a good idea. I mean,
obviously that this is all about Donald Trump, and missus
Lensky said actually his interviewed, that there'll be no ideas,
that every needs to be more detailed. So I think
missus Lenski is trying to fill the void by putting
forwards her proposals head of January when Trump becomes president.

Speaker 1 (00:38):
So when putincy is also we can rely on Trump,
you know, smart man, he'll sort something out. What's he
gunning for?

Speaker 2 (00:45):
Well, I think I've thought for a while both sides
are heading towards some sort of SEASPI MESSI compromised deal
in the new year. I mean Russia's just set out
at Stall earlier this year about more of us of
capitulation from Ukraine aside from Ukraine's and Turner now said
we're ready to accept some form of ceasefire and peaceful
territory swap only with a guarantee of security guarantees from NATO.

(01:10):
So I think both sides of trying to influence Trump,
who's kept his cards very close to his chest. Actually
the only person really has is missed General Kellogg, whose
plan actually there's very much sort of negotiation and peace
through strength value that Native membership would get de lay,
but America would actually provide some form of security assurances
to Ukraine.

Speaker 1 (01:27):
If Putin gets a bit of land but they get NATO,
can he sell that as a wind domestically?

Speaker 2 (01:34):
I think that's difficult, because you know, we know how
much Putin set his stall against NATO in fact force
justifications of the war in the first place. I think
Presidents Lenski said that Putin wants Putin thinks that Ukraine's
part of Russia. He wants to destroy Ukraine, so that
would be very difficult for him. And I think native
membership has always been an absolute firm red line for

(01:55):
the Russian side. So whether it's actually NATO NATO, or
whether it's a selection of NATO countries security guarantees to
Ukraine in that piece deal. Would that be acception. I
think we have to see if I think we've got
a long way to go, and I think things will
depend on how things turn out over the winter, and
you know, by the exact front line and the exact
situation both sides find themselves in. Right January February.

Speaker 1 (02:14):
Flip side can Zelensky sell NATO and but a loss
of land.

Speaker 2 (02:20):
Well, we've seen I think politics hasn't gone away from Ukraine.
I think we've seen presidants Lensky's popularity is slide and
the number of people inside Ukraine who want some called
peace deals risen. So there's that sort of tension. It
would be very difficult, after I think almost three years
of war to say we're going to give away his
temporary acquaied territories. But I think Pa is clever, but
he said we're not going to give up our claim

(02:41):
to all of Ukraine. This will be a temporary end
to the hot phase. And although it's the first time
he's talked about it, these sil rumors and discussions have
been around Kia for a long time. So this year,
especially as the situation has gone against Ukraine on the.

Speaker 1 (02:54):
Battlefield okay, and then while I've got jip Siria, does
Elasad survive this line now? And Russia and around too
busy to help out.

Speaker 2 (03:05):
Yeah, I'm not a great expert on Syria, but I
would say from the Russian perspective, I think the rapid
advance of the opposition forces has caught everyone unawares, especially
the Kremni, which has been massively distracted by the war
in Ukraine. Of course Rand's been distracted, and of course
Sad Allies has been hammered by the Israelis over the
last few months. So we've seen how much Russia treats

(03:27):
Syria as a client, because I said quickly fleuted Moscow
to get his orders, and we've now seen a round
of purist diplomacy. But I think the problem is that
Russia has less leaders than it might have had a
few years ago. It hasn't got the troops because they've
all been bogged down in Ukraine. The aircraft we poured about,
the air defenses they gave to a said were also
pulled back, so they've resulted to bombing. But whether that

(03:49):
will actually affect the situation aground, it's very confused at present.
But I would say, there's a lot of people in
the Syrian opposition who want to seek revenge on the
Russians for murdering tens of thousands of Syrian civilians last decade.

Speaker 1 (04:00):
All right, John, appreciate it. John Foreman, former UK Defense
at in Moscow. For more from The Mic Asking Breakfast,
listen live to News Talks at B from six am weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.