Josh Tan: Export NZ Executive Director on the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs, International Monetary Fund slashing global growth forecasts

The International Monetary Fund is slashing its global growth forecasts due to impact of Donald Trump's tariffs, and expects the US to be hit particularly hard. 

US markets have been rallying, with the White House confirming it has 18 trade deal proposals on paper, is talking with 34 countries this week, and has a China deal in the works. 

But China's warning it will hit back at countries that make deals that go against its interests. 

Export NZ Executive Director Josh Tan told Mike Hosking it's still unclear how New Zealand and its exporters will be affected. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Good news rolls on for our economy. We've just logged
our largest monthly merchandise surplus since April of twenty eleven.
We sold more than we bought by almost a billion dollars.
We sent seven and a half let's call it seven
point six billion dollars worth of product off sure in March,
which made it the biggest month ever export. New Zealand
executive director. Josh ten is with us on all of this. Josh,
very good morning to you.

Speaker 2 (00:20):
Yeah, good morning, Mike.

Speaker 1 (00:22):
Is there any season algy about this? Is something happening
in March that's gone a bit wonky?

Speaker 2 (00:27):
No, Look, I think March has always been a pretty
strong year, so strong month for exports, so this is
to be expected.

Speaker 1 (00:35):
Okay, what about the week dollar? Is that driving it? Price?
Is stronger dollar week or all of those combination of things.

Speaker 2 (00:41):
Yeah, Look, there's a few things in terms of why
I think we've had such a strong record month in March.
So definitely the low New Zealand dollar is something that's
made our commodity exports more impelling. But then also you're
looking at months on months, so that's March twenty five
compared to March twenty four strong global prices for both

(01:02):
milk and beef. But then on top of that, you've
also got record crops in the horticulture sector. The apples
and pears industries recently announced that they've hit a billion
dollars of revenue for the first time. You've also got
zespri who are only just ramping up, but they've also
talked about another bumper crop going out.

Speaker 1 (01:19):
Is this all going to go now that the dollars
back up and the world is going into some sort
of malaise?

Speaker 2 (01:25):
Look, I think you know, this positive news all comes
with a bit of an asterisk, and that is obviously
the trade war that's currently growing between the US and
the major trading partners. I think overwhelmingly, you know, economists
have a pretty dim view of how overseas market's going
to react to rolling tarif announcements. It's already shown up
in the data. The trade war uncertainty has hit US

(01:47):
consumer confidence, which is in the all time lows. Chinese
consumer confidence isn't any better. Of course, also seen this
morning that the IMF has done greater global growth expectations
of the year and also for next year, and also
raises its odds on a US recession. So look, you know,

(02:09):
could this all have significant implications for New Zealand exporters.
It remains to be seen.

Speaker 1 (02:15):
Okay, when we talk about the March numbers though, exports
to China up twenty three twenty three percent of massive numbers.
Is that material in the sense has something happened in China?
Or is this just once again a monthly and normally.

Speaker 2 (02:27):
Look, I think it goes back to those strong prices
for New Zealand dairy, New Zealand meat, and also New
Zealand logs. But there's also reculd crop as I've mentioned,
for our foot grows as well, and I think that's
where those numbers come from.

Speaker 1 (02:38):
Okay, and the trade deficit was still running annually a
trade deficit. Do you ever see that ending? Do you
worry about that? Should we worry about that? I worry
about that, but no one else seems to.

Speaker 2 (02:47):
Look, it's a really good point, you know. All of
these really positive numbers are on the back of an
annual six point one billion dollar trade deficit. But look,
that is down from the previous year's ten billion dollar
trade deficit, and I think from memory the year before
that was about seventeen billion dollars. So look, it doesn't
mean that over the course of the New Zealand is
still importing more goods than it exported, but that continues

(03:10):
to be a downward trend. And that's the good thing here.
That deficit continues scenario each year.

Speaker 1 (03:15):
All right, Josh, appreciate your time very much, Josh san
Export New Zealand Executive Director. So for now they are
very good numbers. For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast,
listen live to news talks. It'd be from six am weekdays,
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