Kate Acland: Beef + Lamb NZ Board Chair on the record levels of red meat export prices

New Zealand red meat prices are at record levels and are expected to remain strong throughout the year.  

Earnings for core red meat exports are expected to rise by $1.4 billion to $10.5 billion for the 2024–2025 season.  

Beef + Lamb New Zealand Board Chair Kate Acland says there's incredible global demand for red meat.  

She told Mike Hosking that while they're seeing lower export volumes in the current year, the value is rising. 

Acland says there's been fewer exports from key countries like Brazil, Australia, and the US, so it’s a perfect storm of supply and demand coming together.  

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
You've got a new seasonal outlook for the twenty five

(00:01):
twenty six year for the beef and lamb people. Now
things look good as far as I can work out.
Red meat continues its record run globally. Exports expected hit
ten and a half billion for the year end is September.
Kate Eckland, as the chair of Beef and Lamb New Zealand,
is back with US. Kate, Good morning, morning Mike. From
what I'm reading, volume drop, but the values up is
that roughly right.

Speaker 2 (00:20):
Absolutely lower exports volumes in the current year, but we've
still seen the value of the exports rise by one
point four billion for the year end this year, and
the twenty five twenty six season is looking to be
just as good as holding steady good.

Speaker 1 (00:34):
So the value is driven by what a lower currency
or we're charging more or both.

Speaker 2 (00:40):
What we're seeing is just phenomenal global demand and that's
coupled with really limited supply out of some of those
e agricultural trading nations like Brazil and Australia, and the
US hears it record lows as well. So I suppose
it's a perfect form of demand and supply coming together,
which is what's leading to this, and it looks like
this will persist for a couple of years.

Speaker 1 (01:01):
I was going to say, I was reading about the
herd in America and there's nothing they can do about that,
and they're not even if they wanted to. They're not
doing anything about it as far as they can work.
Ads to drought and all those sort of things. So
are those sort of markets good to go for a
sustained period of time because they're not giving up beef?

Speaker 2 (01:16):
Are they they're absolutely not. In fact, Commanders is a
record levels despite the prices. So look, I think everything
we're seeing suggest this is going to be good for
a couple of years. You know, there's always some risks
on the horizon. There's a lot of there's a lot
happening in the international trade space with tariffs and various
safeguard actions happening, so you know there's always risk to that.

(01:39):
We're a trading nation. But on the whole, the market
fundamentals are pretty farmed.

Speaker 1 (01:45):
We spend so much time on beef. This sheep's story
seems to be getting better. Is that fair? And it
seems to be getting better in places like the UK.

Speaker 2 (01:53):
The sep story is better than it's been in years.
So it we're seeing really good demand and good prices
out of the UK and the EU, and we've seen
a lot of products go back into those markets where
you know, in the last few years I've been in
China in the US and it was really needed. You know,
this is a great news story, but what it is
is it's a return to profitability. And you know, last

(02:13):
year we saw forty percent of our farmers running at
a significant loss and most of those were the ones
that were in the Hell Country sheet farmers. So you know,
it's a much needed return to profitability.

Speaker 1 (02:24):
Good is that a supply side issue as well? Going forward?
We got enough sheep still because we don't have as
many sheep as we used to have, and a lot
of them, you know, so we okay on that side
of the equation.

Speaker 2 (02:33):
Oh, look at a real concern and you know it
was crunched some numbers and figured out that in the
last five years we've essentially foregone two billion dollars in
red meat exports just through stock numbers that we've lost
from a forestation. So you know that the continuing decline
of sheet numbers is a concern. But you know what
crisis like this does, and said that you know a

(02:55):
lot of these farmers are now making money as it
puts a bit of confidence back in and hopefully we'll
see some of those ship numbers start to climb.

Speaker 1 (03:02):
Back to someone in Wellington's got to be listening to
this stunt. They I mean if they I mean, it
can't be that hard to crunch the numbers. If we
got more sheep, we'd sell more meat, if we got
more you know, et cetera. And as opposed to planting trees,
so that whole setting, which is political, they've got to
be hearing that, are they.

Speaker 2 (03:18):
Look, obviously some changes have been made are onundy forestation
or you know where you can plant trees, but we
don't think it's gone far enough. You know, we're really concerned.
We're still seeing really good productive farmland across the country
being brought and planted into trees, and often by offshore
owners or offshore investors. So now this is returning nothing
to New Zealand's economy.

Speaker 1 (03:37):
Just back to the beef quickly. I read another thing,
and this is the Brazil story. So Australia and Brazil
big big exporters into America on beef. Where do we
fit into that equation and does somebody like Brazil with
a fifty percent tariff do they bleed business to us?

Speaker 2 (03:54):
Look absolutely, As I said, there's a lot happening in
the trade space that's in it. They add some dynamics
there Brazil products. I don't think it can sustain the
tariff levels they're at, so that it may divert into
some of our other markets like China. What we know
is the US actually needs lend beef trim, it needs
the product that we send. The challenge for US, I suppose,

(04:16):
is that we're on a different tariff rate to some
others like Australia and Argentina, so that that will impact
our returns and we're forecasted in the US tariff potentially
could take five hundred million dollars of value out of
that market. So you know, there are always risks. But
junerally speaking, this is a really good news story and
it's good for New Zealand. You know, we know that

(04:38):
farmers shouldn't be farmers on average being fifteen went five
million dollars every day in their regional communities, so the
fact that they're making money, it's it's good for all
of New Zealand.

Speaker 1 (04:47):
Fantastic, always good to talk to you, Kate appreciated, Kate Ackland.
It must be good at the Beef and Lamb office, mustn't.
I mean, there must be generally upbeat. There must be
a lot of morning teas and they're feeling good about life.

Speaker 2 (04:56):
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