New Zealand’s property values are ticking back up again.
New data from Cotality has revealed a 0.2% national increase in June, reversing the 0.1% falls that came in April and May.
The medium house price remains around the $815,000 mark, with Tauranga and Christchurch both increasing by 0.6%.
Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson told Mike Hosking property values are fairly flat when averaged out over a few months.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Housing market update for you. We've got life in June
zero point two percent up tick that off sets falls
in April and May. Big one has been towering on
christ Dutch, among others. Kelvin Davidson as cotellity history, property
economist and is back with us Calvin Morning, Good Morning,
Main Center is more up than down? Duneden, Hamilton towering
or christ Church? Is this bullish for Metro New Zealand
or are we getting a bit excited there?
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Well? I mean in some way it's a bit of
payback for a week of months last month. So I
think it's just more of the same really, but up
but down overall fairly flat when you average it out.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Indeed, should we be looking not taking anything away from
the very good work you do. Should we be looking
at monthly numbers or quarterly numbers or yearly numbers to
get a broader read, because you must have some noise
in a monthly number, mustn't you.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Yeah, I'm tending to look at the three months comparison
right now. I think that's probably the more representative because
it is just a bit patchy but very gorman. And
annual comparison is probably a bit long because it depetts
on which period you're looking back to a year ago,
whether it was strong in a week. So I think
three months are a good measure of what's going on
right now.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
What happens next week? Do you think we have another
conversation around the R But it seems increasingly likely they're
not going to do anything, So this whole mortgage is
coming down, they're still cutting. Thing suddenly takes another turn,
doesn't it. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
I mean, I think they'll probably hold the OCR next week,
but there may well be a cup coming in August,
so I think there's still more to come on that.
But the pass through to mortgage rates could be fairly
limited because the banks have probably already acted ahead of
there anyway. But I guess in terms of pass through,
there's also an issue that people are focusing on with
a lot of people out there on their existing mortgages
(01:34):
are currently still paying about six percentage, so there is
still a pass through to come as people get down
towards five. Now what they choose to do with that
money is another thing. They might save it, they might
reduce the term of their loans, so it might not
necessarily slow through to the market.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
Are there individual stories in markets like fung arraise up
why versus Queenstown which is up And I can tell
you that because it's beautiful and tourism and all of
that sort of stuff. So it depends where you look.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
Does and again in the month or months and becomes
part of it. I think funger A, for example, had
a couple of week and months prior to this. So
it is a bit a bit variable. I mean, you
can probably point a little bit to a story of
kind a region, a bit more growth in regions where
maybe dairy farming is still going fairly well. But I
think in generally the big common factors lots of listings, week,
(02:21):
labor market. Yeah, those things are really the key restraints.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
The longer listings that the houses and I follow some
of them been stuck there for a very very long
period of time. Is that what's brought about the large
number of so called listings. In other words, you've got
your fresh and turnover, but you've also got houses that
have been there for you know, a year, if not
towards two years now.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
Yeah, and we sort of loosely refer to that as
stale stop. You know, people have looked at it a
couple of times and you know, going, no, I'm not
I'm not buying that. The vendor's not budgeting on price,
so you know, you could argue that's maybe not really
on the market. But yeah, there are still a lot
of listings, but we are getting back to a position
now where sales are more normal, so then we will
see their listenings overhead start to fall. But you know,
(03:04):
it could be slow progress. I think it's still a
biased market for Oh yeah.
Speaker 1 (03:07):
That's true. I've got a bit with Andrew Keller, who
are money man. I said, to calendar year seven percent
growth by the end of the year. I said this
obviously at a different time of the year. I'm dreaming,
aren't I.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
Well, who knows what might happen over the next six months,
But yeah, we've go We've had less than one percent
in the first six months of the year, so would
take quite an acceleration to get to that number. So
I mean we're probably predicting maybe two to three you know,
pretty soft markets twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (03:33):
Okay, good on you, Kelvin, thanks for them. It's not
your fault. Kelvin Davidson, chief property economists at Tellousy. Then
for more from the Mike asking Breakfast, Listen live to
news talks it'd be from six am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio
Housing market update for you. We've got life in June
zero point two percent up tick that off sets falls
in April and May. Big one has been towering on
christ Dutch, among others. Kelvin Davidson as cotellity history, property
economist and is back with us Calvin Morning, Good Morning,
Main Center is more up than down? Duneden, Hamilton towering
or christ Church? Is this bullish for Metro New Zealand
or are we getting a bit excited there?
Speaker 2 (00:20):
Well? I mean in some way it's a bit of
payback for a week of months last month. So I
think it's just more of the same really, but up
but down overall fairly flat when you average it out.
Speaker 1 (00:30):
Indeed, should we be looking not taking anything away from
the very good work you do. Should we be looking
at monthly numbers or quarterly numbers or yearly numbers to
get a broader read, because you must have some noise
in a monthly number, mustn't you.
Speaker 2 (00:42):
Yeah, I'm tending to look at the three months comparison
right now. I think that's probably the more representative because
it is just a bit patchy but very gorman. And
annual comparison is probably a bit long because it depetts
on which period you're looking back to a year ago,
whether it was strong in a week. So I think
three months are a good measure of what's going on
right now.
Speaker 1 (01:00):
What happens next week? Do you think we have another
conversation around the R But it seems increasingly likely they're
not going to do anything, So this whole mortgage is
coming down, they're still cutting. Thing suddenly takes another turn,
doesn't it. Yeah.
Speaker 2 (01:12):
I mean, I think they'll probably hold the OCR next week,
but there may well be a cup coming in August,
so I think there's still more to come on that.
But the pass through to mortgage rates could be fairly
limited because the banks have probably already acted ahead of
there anyway. But I guess in terms of pass through,
there's also an issue that people are focusing on with
a lot of people out there on their existing mortgages
(01:34):
are currently still paying about six percentage, so there is
still a pass through to come as people get down
towards five. Now what they choose to do with that
money is another thing. They might save it, they might
reduce the term of their loans, so it might not
necessarily slow through to the market.
Speaker 1 (01:48):
Are there individual stories in markets like fung arraise up
why versus Queenstown which is up And I can tell
you that because it's beautiful and tourism and all of
that sort of stuff. So it depends where you look.
Speaker 2 (02:00):
Does and again in the month or months and becomes
part of it. I think funger A, for example, had
a couple of week and months prior to this. So
it is a bit a bit variable. I mean, you
can probably point a little bit to a story of
kind a region, a bit more growth in regions where
maybe dairy farming is still going fairly well. But I
think in generally the big common factors lots of listings, week,
(02:21):
labor market. Yeah, those things are really the key restraints.
Speaker 1 (02:25):
The longer listings that the houses and I follow some
of them been stuck there for a very very long
period of time. Is that what's brought about the large
number of so called listings. In other words, you've got
your fresh and turnover, but you've also got houses that
have been there for you know, a year, if not
towards two years now.
Speaker 2 (02:41):
Yeah, and we sort of loosely refer to that as
stale stop. You know, people have looked at it a
couple of times and you know, going, no, I'm not
I'm not buying that. The vendor's not budgeting on price,
so you know, you could argue that's maybe not really
on the market. But yeah, there are still a lot
of listings, but we are getting back to a position
now where sales are more normal, so then we will
see their listenings overhead start to fall. But you know,
(03:04):
it could be slow progress. I think it's still a
biased market for Oh yeah.
Speaker 1 (03:07):
That's true. I've got a bit with Andrew Keller, who
are money man. I said, to calendar year seven percent
growth by the end of the year. I said this
obviously at a different time of the year. I'm dreaming,
aren't I.
Speaker 2 (03:19):
Well, who knows what might happen over the next six months,
But yeah, we've go We've had less than one percent
in the first six months of the year, so would
take quite an acceleration to get to that number. So
I mean we're probably predicting maybe two to three you know,
pretty soft markets twenty twenty five.
Speaker 1 (03:33):
Okay, good on you, Kelvin, thanks for them. It's not
your fault. Kelvin Davidson, chief property economists at Tellousy. Then
for more from the Mike asking Breakfast, Listen live to
news talks it'd be from six am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio
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