Kelvin Davidson: Cotality Chief Property Economist on property values rising after a five month slide

There's a view the property market will continue to be in buyers' favour for some time, despite values edging up. 

Cotality data shows property values in New Zealand ticked up by 0.1% in September, following a cumulative 1.6% drop over the five months to August. 

Chief Property Economist Kelvin Davidson says regional New Zealand properties are faring better. 

He told Mike Hosking that 2026 is looking better, but right now things are pretty flat.  

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Speaking of housing markets moving, we're up zero point one
for the month, so don't break out the champagne just yet,
but it does break five months of decline. As usual.
It depends on where you are in the country, so
it's a crunch. A few markets can get a Vibekelvin
Davidson's kotells he's chief property economist, end is back with
It's Calvin Morning, Good Morning. One month does not a
summer of profit.

Speaker 2 (00:19):
Make no, No, that's right now, and you've got to
put it in the context of five previous falls. So
I mean the market's pretty flat and just reflecting. Yes,
in straights are down, but economistly, people still feel a
bit cautious.

Speaker 1 (00:33):
So at zero point one, what do we see spring
interest rates, foreign buyers mar I mean, I think.

Speaker 2 (00:39):
Yeah, I think I mean confidence in the economy. I
guess can be a little bit circular in which drives
the other, you know it can It can probably be
a bit both ways. But I think that there's signs,
the signs of some hints and green shoots coming through
in the economy. We know infrastrates are down, it'll pass
through to borrowers more as we progress through. So yeah,

(00:59):
I think twenty two sex is looking better, but just
right now things are pretty.

Speaker 1 (01:02):
Slat Well, how much way do you place on the
next couple of meetings before the end of the year
from the RB, so let's call it fifty points before
the end of the year. Are we all sitting, you know,
coiled springs of anticipation waiting for this to happen.

Speaker 2 (01:13):
Yeah, I think it could be pretty significant. I mean,
I've heard the word circuit breakath being bandied about a
little bit. I think it just needs a sort of
shock treatment for lack of a better word. And I think,
you know, get in to get into the next year,
get into summer. You know. I think there's there's some
some cause for optimism coming through, but we also need
the economy to turn around. And it can be a
bit circular, of course, but people start to see some

(01:35):
better economic news, confidence picks up and it flows right
through good stuff.

Speaker 1 (01:39):
Calvin, appreciate your insight, Kelvin Davidson out of captality. Auckland
down a bit. This is for the month of Auckland.
Hamilton Flat Tower is up, Wellington's down, christ Jute up
quite a lot and even up as well. So the
further south you go, the better it get. For more
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