Leigh Marsh: Corrections Custodial Services Commissioner on the projected spike in prison numbers

Corrections is prepared for a projected spike in our prison numbers. 

The Ministry of Justice projects the prison population will increase 36% by 2035 to more than 14,000 people. 

New policies such as the Sentencing Reform Act and the reinstatement of the Three Strikes law are pushing the projected growth. 

Corrections Custodial Services Commissioner Leigh Marsh told Mike Hosking they prepare for a lot of variability in prison populations. 

He says in 2018 we had more than 10,000 prisoners, followed by a drop and now another rise. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
New numbers around people in jail, tough and new sentencing
laws that you're well aware of, of course. So the
suggestion is our prison population could potentially grow about thirty
six percent over the next ten years. There will be
fourteen thousand prisoners. It would be the result of these
three strike laws, capping of the sentencing discounts, all that
sort of stuff. Anyway, Lee Marsh is the commissioner a
Custodical Services at Corrections and is with us Lee morning, Oh,

(00:20):
good by mine. How rock solid are these numbers? So
therefore you as a department go, well, we're locked into
those numbers. Therefore we need to build this sort of
sized facility or spend this amount of money.

Speaker 2 (00:32):
That's an interesting question. How rock solid ali these are
projections and their ten year projections. So if you heart
back to a year ago from the twenty four to
thirty four projection, it was around three thousand lower than
this projection. So they do ebb and flow each time,
but they are the basis in which we plan our estate.
We do catch that a little bit reality and make
sure that we have in a buffer to wear a

(00:53):
lot of this variability. If you recall back in March
twenty eighteen. We were other ten eight hundred prisoners back then,
and we've had a substantial drop since and then a
substantial rise. So over the years we do experience this
this ebb and flow. But we're in a really good
place right now.

Speaker 1 (01:08):
You make a very good point, Hess at about ten
ish thousand, does that still the case?

Speaker 2 (01:12):
Well, this morning we are six hundred and forty three
at unlock, five hundred and sixty three of those are
on site.

Speaker 1 (01:19):
So over a decade does an increase of less than
four thousand really that many? Presumably also including the fact
that population is going to.

Speaker 2 (01:26):
Increase well in relation to the growth over ten years,
that really lines up with our bill program, so we
plan for that. In relation to the general population increase, well,
that depends on a whole raft of things, such as
government policies, societal norms, perceptions on crime and punishment. So
that's a little bit out of our control, and that's

(01:47):
that's up to the kind of ebb of community and society.

Speaker 1 (01:49):
Really are we outliers and putting people in jail? Last
I always look, the Americans put a lot of people
in jail. We put quite a few people in jail,
and we is that the norm? So to speak.

Speaker 2 (01:59):
It's difficult comparison to make, so you will always find
countries that put less people in prison than us. You
will always find countries that put more people in prison
for their population than us. But it all depends on
the kind of the foundations of your criminal justice system
and how certain mechanisms in it are applied. So I
wouldn't say we're an outlier.

Speaker 1 (02:17):
No good on your late Appreciate the insight. Lee Marsho's
the Commission of for a Custodial Services at Corrections with us.
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