Mick Ryan: Former Australian Major General and strategist on the meeting between Russia and Ukraine

Ukraine and Russia are set for the first direct talks since the war began. 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is personally attending the talks in the coming hours in Turkey. 

The Kremlin's sending a delegation, and has confirmed it will not include Russian President Vladimir Putin, instead being led by Vladimir Medinsky. 

Former Australian Major General Mick Ryan told Mike Hosking Ukraine is likely to remain pretty pragmatic in negotiating a ceasefire. 

He says a war termination agreement may see them accept that Russia is temporarily occupying Ukrainian territory, but they’ve been clear they won’t accept that they’re parts of Russia.  

Ryan says while they want peace, they’ve made it clear they won’t accept peace at any price. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Back to the big business tonight in Turkey or is
there tight lips all around as to who's going to
be there. I'm suggesting Trump may even get involved. Zelenski
says he will be there. Putin has said nothing, So
what chance this blows up? Or maybe we've got an
end in sight. Retired Australia Major general and strategistmic Ryan
back with us on the program.

Speaker 2 (00:17):
Very good morning, Yeah good, It's great to be with
you again.

Speaker 1 (00:20):
I appreciate you getting up early for us. Now, the
desire for progress. Who's who blinks first? He who needs
who more?

Speaker 2 (00:30):
I actually think Putin probably needs this more than anybody.
At the end of the day, he's not doing that well.
He likes to messages that he's taking grand in Ukraine,
but essentially he's failed at his core objective for the war,
which is to subjugate Ukraine. Trump would obviously like to
see some kind of progress, but he's also indicated that

(00:52):
he's happy to walk away if he doesn't achieve that.

Speaker 1 (00:55):
Do you believe he'll walk away or America walks away
or not?

Speaker 2 (01:00):
Not? At this point because pretty much every promise Trump
has made during the election campaign and since he's walked
back on, including tariffs and these kind of things. So
you know, I think we should take that walk away
threat with a grain of Saltea and Witkoff have been
threatening this for months. They yet to do it. They
remain engaged, and we see that both Witkoff and Kellogg,

(01:22):
the other American who's involved in this process, will both
be in Turkey for these talks if they occur.

Speaker 1 (01:30):
Are they being stretched as the administration being stretched at
the moment between Iran, the Middle East, the Tourran? What
else can I think of that's in the India, Pakistan, Syria?
I mean, is it too much going on?

Speaker 2 (01:47):
Well? I think the degree of threats would be an
intellectual and physical challenge for any administration. And this isn't
the most capable or intellectual administration we've seen in America's history.
So you know, they are stretched, and you know the
world is probably the most at the most dangerous point

(02:08):
we've seen in many, many decades, So any administration would
be struggling. This one is probably struggling more than most
would have.

Speaker 1 (02:15):
They overplayed their hand the Americans, that says on the
minerals deal while threatening to walk given that, why would
you walk if you've got a minerals deal.

Speaker 2 (02:25):
Well, they certainly overpromised and underdelivered on it. I mean,
at the end of the day, they walked back a
bunch of threats on paying back this ludicrous three hundred
and fifty billion dollar figure, which was just some made
up figure in Trump's mind. And we should remember too
that the Americans in twenty seventeen signed a very similar
deal with the government of Afghanistan. Then two years later

(02:46):
it went behind their back and negotiated a peace with
their enemies. So you know, I don't think we should
hold out too much hope for this mineral's deal, other
than it might keep the Americans interested in Ukraine in
the future.

Speaker 1 (02:58):
As we understand it, the American idea as Crimea has
gone to the Russians because no one objected when they
grabbed it, and the ground they've got currently they get
to keep. One can Zelenski live with that? Can the
people of Ukraine live with that? And two if they could?
Is that a win for Russia? And is that how
Putin would see it?

Speaker 2 (03:19):
Firstally, I think that the Ukrainians will remain pretty pragmatic
in negotiating a ceasefire, a war termination agreement may see
them except that the Russians temporarily occupy Ukrainian territory. But
they've been very clear and I don't think this will change.
They won't accept that these are parts of Russia. And

(03:42):
you know, this will be a problem for Russia in
the future too, because Russia will have to protect its
occupied Leans against the Ukrainians. So it's a threat to them.
You know, at the end of the day, no one
wants peace more than the Ukrainians do. But as most
of the Poles in Ukraine have pointed out, Ukrainians don't
want peace at any price.

Speaker 1 (04:03):
Do you believe the narrative that unless Putin has stopped,
he will carry on. Does he have the capability to
carry on if he hasn't done that?

Speaker 2 (04:12):
Well here, yeah, absolutely, I mean it's no longer a narrative,
it's an intelligence assessment from multiple European countries that Putin
is beginning with Ukraine, not ending with Ukraine. That's why
the Poles are spending, you know, are over four percent
of their GDP underfense, why the Baltics and Finland and

(04:34):
Sweden are why Finland and Sweden joined NATO even when
they didn't during the Cold War. They all believe the
Putin has wider designs on a sphere of influence in Europe,
and even if he doesn't have the capability, he is
building the capability. But even if he didn't, it would
be prudent for us to assume that he wants to
do that and take the measures necessary to ded that behavior.

Speaker 1 (04:58):
Where does the EU and NA fit into this? Can
a deal be done without them, you know, actually being
involved or is it a photocompley or what?

Speaker 2 (05:07):
No, I don't think there's a deal here without the
EU being involved and NATO. I mean, EU has a
much closer relationship with the EU than the United States
does in many respects Ukraine is on the pathway to
EU membership. You know, you can look up the annual
assessments of how Ukraine he's doing on that. NATO is

(05:28):
a bit different. I mean, you've already seen the Europeans
inching around a different alliance construct than the current US
led NATO. So I think EU is going to be
an essential part of a solution for Ukraine purely because
of the economic dimensions of reconstruction in post war.

Speaker 1 (05:46):
Development for Ukrain simple terms, what happens is this going
to get sorted or not.

Speaker 2 (05:52):
If I was a betting person, I wouldn't be expecting
too much out of any meeting that happens in Turkey.
We don't even know who's going to turn up. Putin
is still stringing everyone along. I don't know that he
can continue to do that successfully with the Americans, even
though at some point become frustrated with him.

Speaker 1 (06:09):
Always a pleasure, make appreciate your time very much. Let's
talk again soon. Retired major General, academic and strategists these days,
mcryan Out of Australias.

Speaker 2 (06:16):
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