A military expert says China's sent a clear message with its war ships as they sail away from Australia and New Zealand.
Three highly powered navy vessels entered Australia's exclusive economic zone in the Tasman Sea last week, where they performed live firing exercises.
The New Zealand Defence Force is no longer monitoring the warships as they sail west away from Australia.
Lowy Institute Senior Fellow Mick Ryan told Mike Hosking it's a display of power from China, showing they can disrupt trade whenever they want.
He says it's also a test of Australia's relationship with the US, considering what's happening with Europe.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Time for some analysis on the changing geopolitical landscape in
our backyard and indeed on the other side of the world.
The chunk of the Chinese Navy has caused consternation here
and in Australia, while the meltdown at the White House
over the weekend has led to panic emergency in Europe
over Ukraine. Mcgran's thirty five year AfD VET these days,
senior fellow and in Military Studies at the Lower Institute
in Australia, is back with us. Very good morning to you.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Good morning mates.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Before before we get to the White House and everything
that's happened in the war in Ukraine, can we just
deal quickly with the Chinese the warships which have circumnavigated Australia.
As far as I can work out, what changes, if anything,
as a result of what happened in these last few days,
Well it.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
May change nothing, but hopefully it will wake people up
to the threat that the Chinese Navy now poses to
regions far away from the Chinese homeland. I mean, there's
no reason for Chinese task forces to be sailing in
the waters of Australia and New Zealand. There's no threat
to them. Here. We're not stopping in a national tray.
(01:00):
This is a direct message to the governments of Australia
and New zeal And the United States.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
What's the message, Well, the message.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Is we'll go wherever we want, whenever we want. That
we can threaten your trade if you decide to help
Taiwan in any contingency. And it's also a test to
see what the strength of the Australian alliance is with
America at the moment, in the wake of what's been
going on in.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
Europe, there seems to be a general reaction globally and
this is not just the Chinese and as part of
the world, but the war in general that everybody needs
to spend more on defense. Is that ultimately, do you
think where this is going?
Speaker 2 (01:38):
It's absolutely going there and hopefully we'll go there pretty quickly.
For both Australia and New Zealand, we both need to
step up our games.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
By how much and what For Australia do you get?
What do you need and what difference would it make?
Speaker 2 (01:51):
Well, there's a bunch of things Australia needs to do
first and foremost we need to expand out domestic defense
industry and we need to build more stuff here. Both
Australia and New Zealand will be at the back of
the line for defense manufactures if anything ever happens, We
need to build stuff ourselves. We also need larger military forces,
not just navies, but armies and air forces are required,
(02:13):
one for the deterrent effect they provide, but two to
be able to respond to crises in the region and
beyond if required.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
As far as the Chinese are concerned, I'm sure you're
following the situation with New Zealand and Rara. It's Honga
and Mark Brown went up and signed a cooperative deal
with the Chinese last week. How do you balance what
China wants in the Pacific versus the defense versus the
trade relationship that both our countries have with them.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Well, I mean, we should be able to cooperate with China,
but at the end of the day, it can't be
at the cost of our own sovereignty, in our own prosperity.
And what we're seeing more and more is China is
trying to subvert different governments throughout the region to align
with China or turn away from their relationships with other countries.
That's just not in Australia and New Zealand's interests. So
(03:00):
where we can cooperate, we do. That's the policy of
Australia New Zealand. But where we differ, we're going to
have to be able to invest in pushing back.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
How much interest would there have been in what the
Chinese did last week in this part of the world
from the.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
US AH, there's certainly a lot of interest in the
headquarters of Indo pay Coom in Hawaii. I mean, they
take very seriously these kind of events and I have
no doubt that the Australian New Zealand militaries would have
been sharing a lot of information from the event with them.
But they also have a lot of other bits of
the specific to look at, so this will just be
(03:35):
one of many things they're watching.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
And from the depend point of view, you've got an
election coming up very shortly, we still don't know exactly when,
but the policy settings completely different depending on who wins.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
I think there will be differences. We've already started the
bidding contests on the fence, start with the Opposition leader
Peter Dunton announcing out of the weekend we'll buy another
twenty eight f thirty five fighters. I expect that, unlike
two weeks ago, defense may now be a more important
part of the election team.
Speaker 1 (04:06):
Interesting, right BECA. As far as Ukraine's concerned, and what
happened to the White House over the weekend, where does
this leave Europe and are they capable of standing alone
in defense of Ukraine without America?
Speaker 2 (04:16):
Yeah, I think the over Office ambush was first and
foremost a crisis of confidence in America's alliances. That is
for probably the worst manifestation of what happened, among others
for Europe. We've just seen the outcomes of the summit
in London held by the British Prime Minister, where they've
all committed to spend more. Well, we've heard that before
(04:38):
this time Europe really must stand up for going to
help Ukraine and deter further Russian aggression to achieve.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
What three years in, what have we got other than
the stalemate?
Speaker 2 (04:50):
Well, first and foremost, so Ukraine doesn't lose. That would
be not only a gross moral tragedy for the people
of Ukraine. We know what Russia will do to them
because we've been watching them torture and murder their way
through the occupied territories. But Russia will then turn its
attention to other countries. Has already said if wants to
attack countries in the Baltics and in Scandinavia because one
(05:14):
they're in NATO and two they see them as part
of the Russian sphere of influence.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
Yeah, what happens to NATO now, if anything, as a
result of what happened to the White House over.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
The weekend, Well, I think cool heads will always help
hope that NATO remains, but it's going to go through
a very trying period at the moment.
Speaker 1 (05:36):
Now.
Speaker 2 (05:36):
It's gone through trying periods in the past. It's not
the first time there's been a crisis of confidence among members.
Might recall nuclear process in the eighties and these kind
of things. So you know, it's a difficult period, but
it's in all our interests for NATO to endure and
continue to increase investment in defense, intelligence and other areas.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
So what do you think came out of this circled
emergency that Starmer was leading. It seems to be more money,
more promises, more equipment with a view to doing what
holding their own or advancing the cause or maybe heading
towards some sort of ceasefire or peace deal.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
Well, there's a couple of things there. Firstly, be able
to give Ukraine the tools to ensure that is able
to negotiate a war termination agreement that's favorable to them,
including territory, sovereignty, security, its relationships with the West. I
think that's a very important outcome. The second one is
(06:33):
just to step up the production of defense material in
Europe to benefit all of Europe, to provide this deterrent
against Russian aggression. And third, you're already seeing discussions emerge
around a new nuclear umbrella provided not by America but
by Britain and other European nations. That will be a
very expensive undertaking and a politically difficult one and will
(06:57):
be interesting to watch how that debate matures.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
Is united on this, and it seems Europe can agree
on nothing because they've each got their own individual problems,
but on this are they united.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
Well, you didn't have every European country at this summit,
probably for good reason. Countries like Hungary would probably stand
against this. They're very much Russian sympathizers. So you know,
the head of the EU is underlying will obviously put
a plan to the EU Council this week and it
will be interesting to see which countries actually put up
(07:32):
their hands and say we don't agree.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
What about someone like Germany? Is was he trying to
patch together a government at the moment? Are they still
heavily involved in this and pivotal to whatever they decide
going forward?
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Absolutely? I mean the new Chancellor has come out strongly
in support of Ukraine and strongly in support of enhanced
European defense capability, and we shouldn't forget that even before him,
Germany was the second largest contributor of aid to Ukraine
after the United States. They really have provided a massive
(08:02):
amount of economic and military aid, and I expect that
will probably have to continue or increase.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
What do you think happens to the mineral deal even
if they patch this up? Is that a way forward
in some way, shape or form or not.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
I think it is. I mean, you know, the details
will obviously be negotiated. I mean, if you read the text,
there's no detail except that will negotiate the detail in
a follow on treating. But what it does do is
at least provides a foundational relationship between the United States
and Ukraine and gives the US an interest in defending Ukraine.
(08:38):
Both of those things are important, and hopefully they'll be
able to work their way back to that.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
From the Trump point of view, that seemed to be
the thinking, didn't that, yes, there's no security guarantee, but
if we're on the ground, if we've got interests in
that country, that in and of itself is a security
guarantee of sorts. Is that how you see it?
Speaker 2 (08:55):
Well, that's how Trump's now portrayed in his latest post
on his social media. I think there's a bit of
backcasting there, but there's some truth in it as well,
that if America has an economic interest in Ukraine, it
also has a security interest.
Speaker 1 (09:09):
So also, the Americans have sent somebody to meet Putin,
and from what we can gather, Putin's giving nothing like
there is nothing to give up here. Is that a
problem or is that just bluster?
Speaker 2 (09:21):
It's a really big problem because the Americans have given
Putin everything he wanted before they even start negotiating, and
over the weekend cutting cyber operations against Russia is just
a ludicrous kind of strategy. We're being pursued at the
moment by the Americans with behavior towards the Russians. I mean,
(09:43):
what the Russians have done in the last twenty years
have been against American interests. They are not going to
change their perspective in the world. And the reason they're
aligned with China is they don't like the system the
Americans have set up since the end of the Second
World War, and regardless of what Trump does, they're going
to continue to want to change it.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
All right, give it. What do we do here? Where
are we going here? And I bring you in six months,
one year? I mean, as we got any further down
the track or not?
Speaker 2 (10:09):
Well, I hope so, I hope that talk in Europe
has turned into action, but talk in Australia and New
Zealand has to turn into action. You know, we need
to step up investment in defense, We need to step
up investment in diplomacy, with the number one priority being
deterring any kind of conflict in our region.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
All right, listen, mate, It's always good to have you
on the program. Appreciate it very much. Mcryan thirty five
years in the AfD, Senior Fellow these days and Military
studies at the Loewy Institute. For more from the Mic
Asking Breakfast listen live to news talks that'd be from
six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio
Time for some analysis on the changing geopolitical landscape in
our backyard and indeed on the other side of the world.
The chunk of the Chinese Navy has caused consternation here
and in Australia, while the meltdown at the White House
over the weekend has led to panic emergency in Europe
over Ukraine. Mcgran's thirty five year AfD VET these days,
senior fellow and in Military Studies at the Lower Institute
in Australia, is back with us. Very good morning to you.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
Good morning mates.
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Before before we get to the White House and everything
that's happened in the war in Ukraine, can we just
deal quickly with the Chinese the warships which have circumnavigated Australia.
As far as I can work out, what changes, if anything,
as a result of what happened in these last few days,
Well it.
Speaker 2 (00:39):
May change nothing, but hopefully it will wake people up
to the threat that the Chinese Navy now poses to
regions far away from the Chinese homeland. I mean, there's
no reason for Chinese task forces to be sailing in
the waters of Australia and New Zealand. There's no threat
to them. Here. We're not stopping in a national tray.
(01:00):
This is a direct message to the governments of Australia
and New zeal And the United States.
Speaker 1 (01:06):
What's the message, Well, the message.
Speaker 2 (01:09):
Is we'll go wherever we want, whenever we want. That
we can threaten your trade if you decide to help
Taiwan in any contingency. And it's also a test to
see what the strength of the Australian alliance is with
America at the moment, in the wake of what's been
going on in.
Speaker 1 (01:27):
Europe, there seems to be a general reaction globally and
this is not just the Chinese and as part of
the world, but the war in general that everybody needs
to spend more on defense. Is that ultimately, do you
think where this is going?
Speaker 2 (01:38):
It's absolutely going there and hopefully we'll go there pretty quickly.
For both Australia and New Zealand, we both need to
step up our games.
Speaker 1 (01:44):
By how much and what For Australia do you get?
What do you need and what difference would it make?
Speaker 2 (01:51):
Well, there's a bunch of things Australia needs to do
first and foremost we need to expand out domestic defense
industry and we need to build more stuff here. Both
Australia and New Zealand will be at the back of
the line for defense manufactures if anything ever happens, We
need to build stuff ourselves. We also need larger military forces,
not just navies, but armies and air forces are required,
(02:13):
one for the deterrent effect they provide, but two to
be able to respond to crises in the region and
beyond if required.
Speaker 1 (02:20):
As far as the Chinese are concerned, I'm sure you're
following the situation with New Zealand and Rara. It's Honga
and Mark Brown went up and signed a cooperative deal
with the Chinese last week. How do you balance what
China wants in the Pacific versus the defense versus the
trade relationship that both our countries have with them.
Speaker 2 (02:38):
Well, I mean, we should be able to cooperate with China,
but at the end of the day, it can't be
at the cost of our own sovereignty, in our own prosperity.
And what we're seeing more and more is China is
trying to subvert different governments throughout the region to align
with China or turn away from their relationships with other countries.
That's just not in Australia and New Zealand's interests. So
(03:00):
where we can cooperate, we do. That's the policy of
Australia New Zealand. But where we differ, we're going to
have to be able to invest in pushing back.
Speaker 1 (03:08):
How much interest would there have been in what the
Chinese did last week in this part of the world
from the.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
US AH, there's certainly a lot of interest in the
headquarters of Indo pay Coom in Hawaii. I mean, they
take very seriously these kind of events and I have
no doubt that the Australian New Zealand militaries would have
been sharing a lot of information from the event with them.
But they also have a lot of other bits of
the specific to look at, so this will just be
(03:35):
one of many things they're watching.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
And from the depend point of view, you've got an
election coming up very shortly, we still don't know exactly when,
but the policy settings completely different depending on who wins.
Speaker 2 (03:46):
I think there will be differences. We've already started the
bidding contests on the fence, start with the Opposition leader
Peter Dunton announcing out of the weekend we'll buy another
twenty eight f thirty five fighters. I expect that, unlike
two weeks ago, defense may now be a more important
part of the election team.
Speaker 1 (04:06):
Interesting, right BECA. As far as Ukraine's concerned, and what
happened to the White House over the weekend, where does
this leave Europe and are they capable of standing alone
in defense of Ukraine without America?
Speaker 2 (04:16):
Yeah, I think the over Office ambush was first and
foremost a crisis of confidence in America's alliances. That is
for probably the worst manifestation of what happened, among others
for Europe. We've just seen the outcomes of the summit
in London held by the British Prime Minister, where they've
all committed to spend more. Well, we've heard that before
(04:38):
this time Europe really must stand up for going to
help Ukraine and deter further Russian aggression to achieve.
Speaker 1 (04:45):
What three years in, what have we got other than
the stalemate?
Speaker 2 (04:50):
Well, first and foremost, so Ukraine doesn't lose. That would
be not only a gross moral tragedy for the people
of Ukraine. We know what Russia will do to them
because we've been watching them torture and murder their way
through the occupied territories. But Russia will then turn its
attention to other countries. Has already said if wants to
attack countries in the Baltics and in Scandinavia because one
(05:14):
they're in NATO and two they see them as part
of the Russian sphere of influence.
Speaker 1 (05:19):
Yeah, what happens to NATO now, if anything, as a
result of what happened to the White House over.
Speaker 2 (05:25):
The weekend, Well, I think cool heads will always help
hope that NATO remains, but it's going to go through
a very trying period at the moment.
Speaker 1 (05:36):
Now.
Speaker 2 (05:36):
It's gone through trying periods in the past. It's not
the first time there's been a crisis of confidence among members.
Might recall nuclear process in the eighties and these kind
of things. So you know, it's a difficult period, but
it's in all our interests for NATO to endure and
continue to increase investment in defense, intelligence and other areas.
Speaker 1 (05:57):
So what do you think came out of this circled
emergency that Starmer was leading. It seems to be more money,
more promises, more equipment with a view to doing what
holding their own or advancing the cause or maybe heading
towards some sort of ceasefire or peace deal.
Speaker 2 (06:13):
Well, there's a couple of things there. Firstly, be able
to give Ukraine the tools to ensure that is able
to negotiate a war termination agreement that's favorable to them,
including territory, sovereignty, security, its relationships with the West. I
think that's a very important outcome. The second one is
(06:33):
just to step up the production of defense material in
Europe to benefit all of Europe, to provide this deterrent
against Russian aggression. And third, you're already seeing discussions emerge
around a new nuclear umbrella provided not by America but
by Britain and other European nations. That will be a
very expensive undertaking and a politically difficult one and will
(06:57):
be interesting to watch how that debate matures.
Speaker 1 (07:00):
Is united on this, and it seems Europe can agree
on nothing because they've each got their own individual problems,
but on this are they united.
Speaker 2 (07:10):
Well, you didn't have every European country at this summit,
probably for good reason. Countries like Hungary would probably stand
against this. They're very much Russian sympathizers. So you know,
the head of the EU is underlying will obviously put
a plan to the EU Council this week and it
will be interesting to see which countries actually put up
(07:32):
their hands and say we don't agree.
Speaker 1 (07:34):
What about someone like Germany? Is was he trying to
patch together a government at the moment? Are they still
heavily involved in this and pivotal to whatever they decide
going forward?
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Absolutely? I mean the new Chancellor has come out strongly
in support of Ukraine and strongly in support of enhanced
European defense capability, and we shouldn't forget that even before him,
Germany was the second largest contributor of aid to Ukraine
after the United States. They really have provided a massive
(08:02):
amount of economic and military aid, and I expect that
will probably have to continue or increase.
Speaker 1 (08:08):
What do you think happens to the mineral deal even
if they patch this up? Is that a way forward
in some way, shape or form or not.
Speaker 2 (08:15):
I think it is. I mean, you know, the details
will obviously be negotiated. I mean, if you read the text,
there's no detail except that will negotiate the detail in
a follow on treating. But what it does do is
at least provides a foundational relationship between the United States
and Ukraine and gives the US an interest in defending Ukraine.
(08:38):
Both of those things are important, and hopefully they'll be
able to work their way back to that.
Speaker 1 (08:42):
From the Trump point of view, that seemed to be
the thinking, didn't that, yes, there's no security guarantee, but
if we're on the ground, if we've got interests in
that country, that in and of itself is a security
guarantee of sorts. Is that how you see it?
Speaker 2 (08:55):
Well, that's how Trump's now portrayed in his latest post
on his social media. I think there's a bit of
backcasting there, but there's some truth in it as well,
that if America has an economic interest in Ukraine, it
also has a security interest.
Speaker 1 (09:09):
So also, the Americans have sent somebody to meet Putin,
and from what we can gather, Putin's giving nothing like
there is nothing to give up here. Is that a
problem or is that just bluster?
Speaker 2 (09:21):
It's a really big problem because the Americans have given
Putin everything he wanted before they even start negotiating, and
over the weekend cutting cyber operations against Russia is just
a ludicrous kind of strategy. We're being pursued at the
moment by the Americans with behavior towards the Russians. I mean,
(09:43):
what the Russians have done in the last twenty years
have been against American interests. They are not going to
change their perspective in the world. And the reason they're
aligned with China is they don't like the system the
Americans have set up since the end of the Second
World War, and regardless of what Trump does, they're going
to continue to want to change it.
Speaker 1 (10:01):
All right, give it. What do we do here? Where
are we going here? And I bring you in six months,
one year? I mean, as we got any further down
the track or not?
Speaker 2 (10:09):
Well, I hope so, I hope that talk in Europe
has turned into action, but talk in Australia and New
Zealand has to turn into action. You know, we need
to step up investment in defense, We need to step
up investment in diplomacy, with the number one priority being
deterring any kind of conflict in our region.
Speaker 1 (10:28):
All right, listen, mate, It's always good to have you
on the program. Appreciate it very much. Mcryan thirty five
years in the AfD, Senior Fellow these days and Military
studies at the Loewy Institute. For more from the Mic
Asking Breakfast listen live to news talks that'd be from
six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio
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