Mike's Minute: Christian Hawkesby's difficult job today

To give you an insight into just how hard Christian Hawkesby's job is today, have a look at what the shadow board says. 

The NZIER has a monetary policy shadow board. It’s a bunch of economists and their view as to what should be happening. 

Some say drop by 25 basis points, one says 50, and some say don’t do anything. 

How do you deal with that? 

These are experts. They know what they are doing. Or do they? 

So no matter what Christian does some of them are going to go "what on Earth was he thinking?" 

Think about the difference between 50 basis points and nothing. 

50 basis points is a lot. 50 means things aren't good, and we need to fire the place up a bit. 

If we don't move it means things are just where we want them. 

Are they where we want them? No, is my answer. But then I'm not an economist. 

Most of them say things like "boy this is tricky". My word is "uncertainty" – the watch word of the day. 

It's through this murky mix of "who the hell knows what's going on" that Christian has to wade and produce something that will see us head into a half decent Christmas. 

Of course that’s part of the mess we are in. There is a lot of water to go under our beleaguered bridge before Christmas, and a number of decisions from the Reserve Bank, along of course with the much-dissected commentary. 

What does 25, or 50 basis points, or nothing, mean? What's old Christian thinking? 

I'll tell you this for nothing – a big part of this equation is mood. It’s the same with the Budget last week and the depreciation measures. 

You have to want to get amongst it. You have to take your mortgage rate cut and do something with it. You have to want to buy your tractor, or ute, and depreciate it by 20%. 

If you are in a funk and you're not spending, then depreciating 20% of zero is nothing and no one gains. 

Christian, or Nicola for that matter, can't do it all. At some point we have to believe. We have to have our arm twisted. We have to see a bit of light. 

The most powerful factor in any economy is us, and mood. 

At some point a switch has to go off, a decision has to be made, and we need to look forward to better days. 

Let's hope today is a part of that story. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Now, to give you an insight into just how hard

(00:01):
Christian Hawksby's job is today, have a look at what
the shadow board says. Now, the Nzidier has a monetary
policy shadow board. It's a bunch of economists in their
view as to what should be happening today. Some say
twenty five points, one says fifty. Some say don't do
anything at all. How do you deal with that? These
are experts. They know what they're doing, or do they? So?
No matter what Christian does, some of them are going

(00:23):
to be going what nurse they thinking? Think about the
difference between fifty and nothing? I mean, fifty is a lot.
Fifty is things aren't good and we need to fire
the place up a bit. Nothing as well, things are
just where we want them? Are they where we want them? No?
Is my answer, But then I'm not an economist. Most
of them say things like, boy, this is tricky. My
word isn't uncertainty the watch word of the day. And

(00:43):
it's through this murky mix of who the hell knows
what's going on? Christian has to wade and produce something
that will see us head into a half decent Christmas.
Of course, that's part of the mess. We're in. There
is a lot of water to go under our belliguate
bridge before Christmas, and a number of decisions from the
reserve banks still to come along. Of course, with the
much die sected commentary, what is twenty five or fifty
or nothing actually mean? What's old Christian thinking? Tell you

(01:06):
this for nothing? A big part of this equation is mood.
It's the same with the budget last week. In this
depreciation measure, you've got to want to get amongst this.
You have to take your mortgage rate cut and do
something with it. You have to want to buy your
tractor or your ute and depreciate at twenty percent. If
you're in a funk and you're not spending, then depreciating
nothing is nothing and no one gains. Christian or Nicola

(01:27):
for that matter, can't do it all. At some point
we have to believe. We have to have our arm twisted.
We have to see of a little bit of light.
Most important factor in any economy is us and mood.
At some point a switch has to go off, a
decision has to be made, and better days have to
be looked forward to. So let's hope today is part
of that story. For more from the mic Asking Breakfast.

(01:50):
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