Paul Spoonley: Massey University Sociologist on net migration remaining low

Net migration is expected to stay low, with global affairs keeping many people where they are.  

Stats NZ data shows there was a net migration gain of only 26 thousand in the year to March, down from more than 100 thousand the year before. 

It says the fall is mainly due to fewer migrant couples arriving, with a slight increase in departures.  

Massey University Sociologist Paul Spoonley told Mike Hosking a big question mark hovers around the migration figures. 

He says he’s unsure whether the numbers will keep, or if it’s going to keep dropping and New Zealand will see something similar to the net loss seen during the global financial crisis. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
More doing numbers. As you heard from Andrew a moment
ago on this migration. Our latest data from the Stats
Department one fewer people coming to the country. In other words,
the peaks well and truly over to the mass exodus continues,
driven largely by young New Zealanders. Overall, we've got a
net gain of just twenty six thousand and four hundred
for the year ending March, along with the record loss
of around seventy thousand year Zealanders. Massa University sociologist Paul

(00:21):
Spoonley back with this. Paul, very good morning to you.

Speaker 2 (00:24):
Good morning, Mike.

Speaker 1 (00:24):
I think the last time we talked, you suggested that
a net negative wasn't going to happen. Do you still
hold that view?

Speaker 2 (00:31):
No, it's a question mark, Mike. The net gain has
dropped by eighty percent in the last two years, so
we've gone from one hundred and thirty thousand net going
down to the twenty six thousand that you've just mentioned.
And I don't know the answer to this, but is
it going to keep is it plateauing now? Does it

(00:53):
reached the bottom or is it going to keep dropping?
Are we going to see something like the net lot
that we saw during the global financial crisis where we
went we saw more people leaving than actually arriving. And
that's the question mark. I don't know.

Speaker 1 (01:08):
That's why I asked you the question last time. I
think we'll go negative, and because you needed to see
that the tail off on people arriving, I get, But
you needed to see the New Zealanders leaving tail off significantly,
and it isn't. And then that surely is a worry,
if not a crisis.

Speaker 2 (01:25):
Well it is. And it looks as though the departing
New Zealand is year on year is around seventy thousand. Now,
it would be okay if we reached that seventy thousand
in one year and it started to come back, but
it's not. It's staying at that seventy thousand figure. It's
a lot of people.

Speaker 1 (01:43):
Make it is a lot of people. And what worries
me sick is the young people. And we could use
a few to fill some jobs and to grow the
country and make us a little bit better than we
currently are.

Speaker 2 (01:54):
Yes, and if you look at the age profile, then
those twenty somethings New Zealanders are leaving. I suspect that
not all of them, but some of them are our
best and brightest, and the question is will they come back?
And yes, there are New Zealander's returning, so we can
see that net number around that forty five thousand. So
we've got about twenty five thousand New Zealanders coming back

(02:17):
into the country. But the other thing which is growing,
which is of concern, is the thirty something New Zealand
is leaving. And you would assume that they have been
in jobs, they are doing jobs that we need them
to do in New Zealand, and so why are they leaving?
That would be good to know. And secondly, I think
that's a concern alongside those twenty somethings.

Speaker 1 (02:38):
I couldn't agree more. Historically, you mentioned the GFC historically,
where do you think this sits? And the reason I
ask that question is the GFC ends and things go
back to I'm not convinced things go back to anything
this time around.

Speaker 2 (02:54):
No, And I think there are some international headwinds that
are going to arrive as well. So at the moment
appears that a lot of countries around the world that
are like ours, that are facing aging and a smaller
younger population because of fertility and immigration, are going to
have to some point get over their reluctance to see

(03:15):
immigration as being part of the solution. And when they do,
then we're going to all have to compete for that
talent that is internationally available. And at the moment, I
would suggest that Canada, Australia, New Zealand are pretty much
the only game in town. We use a point system
to identify the skilled migrants we want and it's been

(03:36):
pretty effective. I mean there are issues, but it's been
pretty effective. But if you get over the current anti
immigrant politics that you see in Europe and they start
and say yes, immigration, we want immigration, we're going to
have to compete internationally in a way that we haven't
done in the past.

Speaker 1 (03:51):
Well, this is part of the malays as far as
I concern. Once upon a time we were like, oh
my god, New Zealand can't get there fast enough. I'm
not sure that's true anymore.

Speaker 2 (04:00):
No, it's not. And the figure that most concerns me
in these latest ones are the number of non New
Zealanders who are leaving. So I assume that those are
migrants who come in the last ten years and have
said no more, I'm going And you know, alongside the
new Zealanders leaving. We really can't afford to recruit migrants

(04:22):
and for them to stay, not to stay and to leave.

Speaker 1 (04:25):
Paul, always a pleasure to talk to you, even on
such matters. Paul Springley is Massa University sociologists. I was
told the other day it's a big thing in business
these at the moment CEOs. Have you got a talented CEO,
you lock them down because if you've got talent, the
world's your oyster. And too many people are looking to
leave and they can't be replaced, so you handcup them.

(04:45):
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