Paul Wood: The Spectator foreign affairs columnist on the likely response to Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh by Iran

A foreign affairs journalist says Iran will have to respond to the assassination of a Hamas' leader.  

Iran's vowing to avenge the killing of Ismail Haniyeh after his reported death in an air strike in Tehran. 

Hamas and Iran are blaming Israel, which has so far made no comment.  

It follows an Israeli strike in Lebanon, that killed a top Hezbollah commander.  

The Spectator foreign affairs columnist Paul Wood told Mike Hosking the Iranian Supreme Leader has made it known through various officials' comments that there will be a response.  

He says from their point of view, they have to restore their credibility in their allies' eyes, as this is a humiliation for them. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So back to the Middle East, the assassination of the
Hamas leader. Of course, in Iran, the fear grows that
the war's about to go. Regional foreign face columnists, but
the Spectator these days formerly the BBC, of course Paul
Woods with us. No one's claimed this, have they.

Speaker 2 (00:12):
Well, the Israelis are neither confirming nor denying it. But
who else would it be In both cases, that strike
in Beirut and the assassination in Tehran. We don't exactly
know what happened in Tehran, but certainly it would be
absurd to think that anybody but the Israelis did this.

Speaker 1 (00:27):
When the Iranians go, do they go big? In what happens? Then?

Speaker 2 (00:31):
Well, this is exactly the question, isn't it. Israel has
gambled that Iran doesn't want to wider war, but they
could have miscalculated. Certainly, Iran will have to respond, and
I think the Iranian national security has met and the
Iranian Supreme Leader has let it be known through various
officials quoted in various media outlets, that there will be
a response. They from their point of view, they have

(00:53):
to restore to terence, They have to restore their credibility.
In the eyes of their allies. This is a humiliate
for them. So you may remember that back in April
there was a presumed Israeli strike on a diplomatic building
in Syria in Damascus, which killed some senior Iranians. Hundreds
of missiles were fired by Iran onto Israeli soil, the

(01:16):
biggest attack, completely unprecedented. I think they may have to
go bigger than that. Now. The Iranians are very rational
when they do these things. They are thought to have
telegraphed his missile attacks in April, so the Israelis could
take them down. We may see. If the region is lucky,
it'll be something like that.

Speaker 1 (01:34):
Again, how strich does nit Nyahoo domestically at the moment
on all these fronts, given what's happen with the original
war end Gaza and all the pressure he's under internationally.

Speaker 2 (01:45):
Well, the cynics would say, and the cynics being his
critics abroad and his opponents at home, that he needs
this ongoing conflict. You need ongoing conflicts of some kind.
And one of the things that these two strikes assassinations
do is is take a piece deal off the table.
Supposedly they were edging towards the ceasefire deal in Gaza.

(02:05):
I can't imagine Hams having lost its political leader will
contemplate that in the short term. As one Palestinian official said,
the rallies have just killed the person they were negotiating
with ultimately, and that the Senates would say that helps.
Mister Netanyahu, as you say, is under pressure and all
sorts of fronts.

Speaker 1 (02:22):
But that's the difficulty. I mean, if you believe that ritoric,
I mean, what was the river going to I mean, yes,
they've been talking for months, and yes they keep going
back to Egypt, and yes there's lots of people around
the table, but I mean, was the river? Is the
river going to be a peace deal?

Speaker 2 (02:36):
It's very hard to imagine that, you know, if you
go by President although we're in you know, more Jews
were killed on one day on October seventh, and since
the Holocaust, the death toll for the Palestinians is shockingly high,
perhaps one and a half getting on for two percent
of the population of Gaza. So it's very hard to
see how things can end, but they always have ended
in the past. The Israelis have a terribly a terribly

(03:01):
vivid phrase. It's cutting the grass in Gaza, and they've
been doing that, but just on a much larger scale.
At some point, the diplomatic pressure for the Americans on
the Israelis will become too great to resist. At some point,
larger than military objectives will have been achieved. They're not
going to destroy har Mass, but they could degrade her
mass sufficiently to claim victory, and then they will need

(03:24):
a deal to bring the hostages home. It's a question
really of when all sides exhausted and has there been
a regional, a wider war provoked in the meantime. And
that's the dangerous point that we're at now.

Speaker 1 (03:34):
What's a great pleasure? Paul Paul Wood, who's the Foreign
AFAS columnst probably the Spectator of course, whether it's This
Morning out of London. For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast,
listen live to news Talks. It'd be from six am weekdays,
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