Richard Arnold: US correspondent on election week, final polls and interest rate outlook

The clock is ticking on the US election, as the final polls have come in.

More than 75 million Americans have already cast their ballots.

US correspondent Richard Arnold tells Mike Hosking that polls show Kamala Harris has picked up support in the Republican red state Iowa, to lead Donald Trump.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
State side Center of the World rich and anold morning
good what he makes. Can you hear the clock ticking? Eh?

Speaker 2 (00:05):
Oh? I hope. So final pictures and final polls being made,
and as you say, it's still a deadlock. There are
some surprises though. One is that with two days till
the official polling start, more than seventy five million Americans
already have cast their ballots, voting early and in huge,
huge numbers. That has led to what you were just
talking about, that surprising Iowa poll showing that Kamala Harris

(00:26):
has picked up support in Republican read Iowa to lead
Trump Donald Trump in a state he has worn twice before.
According to the state's leading newspaper, the Des Moines Register,
Harris leads by forty seven to forty four percent, however,
still within the margin of ra Trump calls this a
fake poll by an enemy, same Polly out he praised
a few months ago when he was up. So there

(00:48):
is still no clear indicator of The New York Times
Siena battleground poll show Pennsylvania remains even, and that Pennsylvania
number is one reason why Harris candle last minute trip
to Detroit last night to make it cameo appearance on
snel's Saturday Night Live comedy show. She did a brief
bit with Maya Rudolph, who plays Harris in the show's sketches.

(01:09):
As Rudolph looks through a dressing room window at the
real Kamala Harris, who equipped this advice to her alter ego,
I'm just.

Speaker 1 (01:18):
Here to remind you you got this because you can
do something your opponent cannot do.

Speaker 2 (01:25):
You can open doors, yeah, referring to the trouble Donald
Trump had the other day when he tried to get
into his rented gabbage trup to tract to score a
point against Joe Biden, but missed the door handle as
he tried to get him. Harris also made herself the
butt of a joke with the comic I don't really

(01:47):
laugh like that, do I?

Speaker 1 (01:48):
A little bit?

Speaker 2 (01:51):
The top Republican commissioner on the Federal Communications Commission blasted
Harris's SNEL appearance as a quote blatant effort to evade
the government's equal time rule. Fair point you might think
as a sketch end of the two women stood signed
by side as Rudolph declared she was going to quote
vote for us in quote great said, Harris, any chance
you registered in Pennsylvania. Meantime, Donald Trump was having some

(02:12):
microphone trouble at a couple of rallies, including one in
Milwaukee where he threatened to quote knock people out, while
he also had my trouble in Michigan and called for
the contractor not to get paid. That's where he spoke
about shooting Republican Liz Cheney, just joking folks, and started
playing with his Mike stand in a way that, shall
we say some as sexually suggestive. More directly, he said this,

(02:34):
I didn't need this. I didn't need to be with
you today.

Speaker 1 (02:38):
Actor a bit at a gorgeous beach in lots of places.

Speaker 2 (02:42):
Trump then told of some unnamed person who he said
had praised him as the greatest ever.

Speaker 1 (02:47):
They said, he's the greatest president that we've ever had.

Speaker 2 (02:52):
I said, does that include George Washington and Abraham Lincoln? Yes, sir,
it does.

Speaker 1 (02:58):
I said, That's okay.

Speaker 2 (02:59):
I'll take it, and modest too. Harris, meanwhile, has been
bringing in the star power with John bon Jovi and
Alicia Keys at her latest events are so neck and
neck down to the wire.

Speaker 1 (03:17):
And in the middle of all of this is Jerome
Powell and what he does.

Speaker 2 (03:21):
Yeah, which is possibly just as interesting whoever wins. The
Federal reserves expressing confidence at least in the short term.
With inflation continuing to cool, the Fed is indicating that
they are set to cut interest rates for second time
this year. Economists expect a quarter of a point rate
cut in December. That'll be a huge relief to most everybody,
especially ordinary folks. The Fed made its first half a

(03:42):
point cut back in September. You recall, once it does
settles over the presidential election, however, the Fed likely will
take another look at things. Some economists have been saying
the imposition of high tariffs on imported goods and mass
deportations of illegal immigrants could send inflation spiking again. Even
Elon Muskim Trump has said he would in charge of
a government efficiency commission sort of cost Cutters says that

(04:04):
process would quote necessarily involve some temporary hardship. So if
that's how it plays and you want to make some investment,
maybe early early next year it might be the window.

Speaker 1 (04:13):
See your election day. I appreciated Richard Arnold State Side,
speaking of money investments, the betting markets Jail Partners there's
a move against Trump at the moment. Arizona still likely Trump,
Georgia likely Trump, Michigan's now a toss up, Nevada's leaning Trump,
which is not as good as likely, and it was likely,
North Carolina likely Trump, Pennsylvania leaning Trump, and Wisconsin a

(04:36):
toss up for Trump. The numbers, once you crunch them
all and run through all your algorithms and work out
the various scenarios, he still runs at about sixty two
to sixty three, which means he's got a two and
three chance of winning, as opposed to Cardwell Harris, who,
according to the market, has got a one in three
chance of winning.

Speaker 2 (04:54):
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Speaker 1 (04:57):
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Speaker 2 (05:00):
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