Robert Patman: International Relations Professor on Donald Trump's ultimatum for Russia regarding a ceasefire with Ukraine

There's concern the US President's given Russia too much breathing room in his ultimatum. 

Donald Trump says the Kremlin has 50 days to reach a ceasefire deal for Ukraine or they'll introduce secondary tariffs of 100%. 

He's also confirmed plans to sell billions of dollars of US weapons to Ukraine, through NATO. 

International relations professor Robert Patman told Heather du Plessis-Allan Vladimir Putin will likely use the time to stall. 

He says he'll hang in there and hope the Europeans become demoralised and Trump changes his mind again. 

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
So Donald Trump has announced his big move against Russia Putin.
He's given Putin fifty days to end the war or
he's going to hit Pusin with tariffs and then any
country trading with Russia will be hit with secondary tariffs
up to one hundred percent. Also, Donald Trump has given
the ok for offensive weapons to be given to Ukraine.
Robert Patman is an international relations expert at Otago University,
Mourning Robert morning, hella, is this going to make a difference.

Speaker 2 (00:24):
I think it will make a big difference to them now,
the Ukrainians. But I think it will make a difference
because the onus is on speed, amongst other things. Mister Trump,
who met with the NATO Secretary General Mark Ruter, confirmed
there's an arrangement where the America where the Europeans will
immediately transfer about seventeen Patriot These are defensive anti missile systems.

(00:50):
These will be transferred quickly to the Ukrainians, possibly through Germany,
and those replacements will the Europeans will be backfilled, as
the Americans call it, by American equipment. And the Europeans
are paying for this, and the Europeans are really keen
to give the Ukraine's much greater resilience, both from the

(01:11):
threat from the Skies but also on the ground. I
didn't pick up the point that you made about offensive equipment.
So far, much of it has been characterized as the
defensive defensive.

Speaker 1 (01:23):
Do you think fifty days is too long a lead
in time and then that gives Persian heaps of times
to just go really hard on Ukraine or Stall.

Speaker 2 (01:31):
Yes, I do. I think it's far too late, and
you know time is vital in this situation. But it
may mean that Germany in particular is prepared to make
offensive weaponry available. And there's no doubt about it. The
Ukrainians are striking through drones largely multiple sites in Russia.

(01:56):
And there are clear signs of concern now in the
EMLIN about what has been a tremendous u turn by Trump.

Speaker 1 (02:04):
Okay, so all in all, all in all, do you
think this might give Trump a putin rather pause to
rethink this war?

Speaker 2 (02:15):
I don't think he can. He faces tough options and
he can't given the casualties Russia. Russia's sustained more than
a million casualties trying to invade a neighbor. If he withdraws,
then his authority regime will probably be overthrown, So he's
got to hang in there and hope that his perseverance
will pay off and the Europeans will get demoralized and

(02:39):
mister Trump will gain change his mind. He is capable
of changing his minds.

Speaker 1 (02:43):
Most likely way this plays out in your mind, Robert.

Speaker 2 (02:47):
I have always thought that Ukraine will gain the upper
hand as time goes on, because small powers which are
determined to defend their own territory can defeat bigger ones.
We only have to think of Vietnam, the Soviet Union
in Afghanistan, and of course the US in the Iraq.
Great powers can be defeated by smaller ones, and I
don't think this will be an exception in the long.

Speaker 1 (03:07):
Run, Robert. Thanks for you expertise, Robert Patman, Professor of
International Relations at Otago University. For more from the My
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Speaker 2 (03:15):
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