Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Britain Rod little morning, make good morning to you mate.
Once net Pole, I read posted debate fifty one forty
nine to Rishie was it worth a watch? Would it
have changed any of the votes? Or are we all
made up our minds?
Speaker 2 (00:15):
The usual thing to say is that it doesn't change
any of the votes. That may be true. That may
be true. However that fifty one forty nine ignores the fact.
Well it doesn't ignore the fact, but I mean, if
you look at that figure, you've got to take into
account that Richie Sunac is on twenty three percent in
the polls, twenty four percent in the polls, so that
(00:36):
is a quite remarkable sort of vote. I mean, I
watched the debate because I have a sad, empty life.
Five million other people did it, so it did get
out there, and Richie Sonac won. I was counting the
scores as we went through by about ten to two
(00:59):
nine three tend to he won easily and convincingly. And
the thing which he won most convincingly on was the
fact that if Labour gets in, you are going to
pay more for everything. You know, it's going to be taxes,
it's going to be fatuous green schemes, it's going to
(01:21):
be vat on things you're not paying v eight on
at the moment, and so on, and it worked. It worked,
And the other way it worked was that the other
way in which this debate worked in favor of Richisunac
was that Starma has no vision for the country and
(01:42):
would not elucidate as to what he was going to
do if he got in now. But that was matched
by Richisunac equally refusing to concede that the Conservatives hasn't
been the ideal party of government for the last ten years.
Sure was wrong there, but this notion that Starma couldn't
(02:05):
actually say what Labor was going to do on any
single issue really resonates with the public. And I think
fifty one forty nine, I think that Sunaku won by
a mile, and I think that has had some resonance,
not enough to reverse the poles, but enough maybe to
(02:28):
shove two or three percent.
Speaker 1 (02:30):
Have we got any seats at all? Because since we
last talked, there was the Messi series of poles, these
projections where they interviewed teams of thousands of people. I
know there's one out this morning that says reforms within
a couple of points a you got poll Conservatives nineteen,
Reform seventeen. Do we have any sense whether these poles
are real or the poles just feed into the poles
And when you see the Tories being wiped out into
(02:51):
sixty six seats or whatever, it's it's just a thing
that becomes a thing in and of itself.
Speaker 2 (02:56):
Yeah, there's a time lack with the poles. And I
have to say, if you'd ask me and you did,
I think as three a week or so ago, you
know what was going to happen in the general election,
I would have said it's going to be a lot
closer than people suspect, and I wouldn't rule out a
hung parliament. I think the advent of Nigel Farage joining
(03:18):
the campaign standing for MP being at the forefront of
reform has substantially changed that in favor of the Labor Party,
because the Reform Party will do great damage now to
the Conservatives, especially up here where I am in the
Red Wall seats of the northeast of England and indeed
(03:39):
the Northwest, they will cause very very great damage. Indeed,
whether it's fifteen or sixteen percent, I think that's probably
pushing it. When it comes to an actual poll rather
than an opinion poll. But you know, you take ten
percent off in all of these seats and that's a
toury is wiped out. Yeah.
Speaker 1 (04:00):
But here's the interesting thing. And once again we've talked
about your first past the post system. So you get
your twelve, thirteen, fourteen, fifteen percent whatever it is, and
it comes from the Tories. But do you win a
seat or do you just play exactly so you play
the spoiler Labor get all the seats and you've got
nothing to show for it other than you're stuck it
up the Tories.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
Yeah. Well, yeah, except you see, I had a meeting
two two weeks ago with the local reform people in
the constituency in which I'm standing, and the thing we
were talking about was, you know, would they support the
SDP when we stand And the thing would shone through
from them, and there were three of them, was that
(04:40):
they were motivated almost entirely by a hatred for the
Conservative Party. You know, it was rancorous. I don't like
the Conservative Party very much, but this not really hated them,
and I think you're going to see a bit more
of that. So the question will come down to for
the voters vote reform and get labor reform. Will say, well,
(05:03):
so what, it's no worse than having the Conservatives in power.
But I think a few conservative voters will think twice.
But nonetheless, I think the Toys are in a far
worse position now. The Farage, who is a supremely competent
and charismatic politician. Whatever you may think of his policies,
he is very very adept at tapping in to the
(05:27):
concerns and worries of the average, particularly working class voter.
That's hugely damaging for the tours. It's pretty damaging for
my party, to tell you the truth, and it will
have an effect on election day.
Speaker 1 (05:40):
Good on, you might well catch up on Excuesday. Appreciate
it very much. Sky A Sky TV by the way,
Rod little Bit, SkyTV have announced her this morning that
they're running what it's not quite a third debate. There
were two debates, one of which was held ninety big.
I'm assuming the second ones on BBC. But Sky have
announced this morning that this coming Thursday today we in
other words, they're going to hebe what they call an
in depth interview with Russian Kia and then they're going
(06:03):
to put questions to the audience. There's also been announced
overnight a deputy leaders sort of get together our headline today,
Angela Grangela Rayner, Poundland, Penny Mordant and Nigel Mister Milkshake
Farage are going to go head to heads next week
as well, so that may or may not be worth
watching for more from the mic Asking Breakfast listen live
(06:25):
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