Sir John Key does not believe US President Donald Trump intends to keep tariffs on most of the world.
The former Prime Minister is speaking at the Ignite 25 Growth Summit business event in Auckland today.
Key, who's supported Trump in the past, says the President is only focused on China in his new trade policies.
He told Mike Hosking the stock, bond, and currency markets are not convinced that Trump is going to leave them where they are.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Big day for business in this country is hundreds gather
at the inaugural Ice House Ignite twenty five summit. The
plan has to spark business led growth in the economy
of the star. Turn is Sir John Key, who is
with us. Very good morning to you, Mollie, Mike. Are
we in need of a shot in the arm?
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Oh? Yeah. Look, I think if you walk out there
at the moment and ask people what's the business environment like,
I think most people would say it's been pretty tough
over the last eighteen months, a few years, but.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
You know, a bit, as they say in ice hockey,
it's a little bit less about where the puck's been
a bit more about where it's going. And I think
the fundamental reason we've been in such bad shape is
because interest rates have been in the wrong place, and
that's been.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
A slightly self induced position. Too much been by the
previous government, too much pressure, pretty slow to react I
think personally on the en straight environment from the Reserve Bank.
So do you accept that argument in straits have been lowered?
I think actually they're going to come down even more.
I mean it's less predictable from here, still lower and
(01:01):
you'll start breathing some confidence back, and I think you're
very slowly saying to see that in the housing market, agriculture,
as you point out in your show many times, is
on fire. And actually I think there's some things the
governments are doing. I mean my understanding is the uptake
of this high neck with individual visa category is really
starting to pour an in big way. So again, you know,
(01:22):
there's some light at the end of the tunnel.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
Really, Okay, Having said all of that, do we know
where the puck is going when we've got a bloke
in America who's changing the rules literally on a daily basis.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Yeah, I mean, you know, to describe as unpredictable would be,
you know, an understatement. But let's just take one step
back and say what do we know? Okay, So Donald
Trump hates trade Oar's hairs. Go and look at the
videos of the forty years ago. He hasn't changed, saying
the same thing as he was then as he is now.
And he fundamentally thinks that the playing field is not
(01:53):
level and America gets taken advantage of now to a
degree a level playing field. Right, not say I agree
with his policies, I'm saying it's got a point. So
then you still say, okay, well he's put on these
massive tariffs, and what did he get an enormous vomit from,
you know, the stock market and the bond markets, and
(02:15):
that forced them to take them off with everyone except China.
So le's part China up for a few seconds. I
was here last week at shit in China. But take
that out, you know, take that off the table for
a second, because they're an individual case. Then what he's
sort of saying is, well, I'm going to negotiate with people,
and I'm going to negotiate with countries. We'll see how
it all goes. If you don't play ball, I'll put
it back on. But here's the best predictor I think
(02:38):
for markets, and that is the markets themselves, the stop market,
the bond markets, the currency markets. They are not buying
that he's leaving massive tariffs on. When you put them on,
they had a terrible reaction. You know, as Andrew Keller
points out on your show every morning. You know, that's
not been the situation for the last twelve So these
(03:00):
people are pretty smart and they've worked out that he's
going to negotiate some solution.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
Okay, India, our boots are on the ground for this FTA.
You tried, you couldn't do it. Will they this time?
And will it be quality?
Speaker 2 (03:13):
Got a better chance with Mum with Modi. I was
there with Mum hun sing lovely man actually passed away recently,
but you know, I was up against the bureaucracy. Never
want to do it.
Speaker 4 (03:24):
I think this is the way to look at it
is that I think if you believe you're going to
get a comprehensive, you know, incredible sup to nuts FTA
with India in day one, then I think you're going.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
To be disappointed. And I mean I remember standing in
the Beehive theaterre doing a press conference with the visiting
then in the Minister of Trade from India and he said,
I'll do an FTA with New Zealand on the podium
right here, right now. And I said, yeah, but you'll
exclude agriculture, and you'll exclude all of all the things
(03:59):
we want right And it's like a lot of things
in life. You can write anything down, but if you
exclude the bits that matter, it doesn't do much. So
my point would be you can always get an FDA.
That's not the judge. It's the quality or the tests.
It's the quality of what actually comes out at the
other end. But I suspect what's going to happen is
they're going to get what in sort of trade talker
(04:20):
is called the early harvest. I think they'll get certain
categories where they'll get some gain. So for the likes
of maybe a zespre for instance, could be really really
important and really useful across the board. That takes a
much longer period of time.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
You made a very good point about the Trump point,
which is that it's not a level playing field. And
one of the people who moved the level playing field
away from being leveled was you when you're older Jackson
into Premier House and the LTD all those years ago
and on that Trump is right, isn't he?
Speaker 2 (04:50):
Yeah? No, no, Look, here's the deal. I mean, when
we are put in the incentives, which there were already
something sentences there, but we fundamentally made them better. Let's
be on for the movie industry. I remember the discussions
around the cabinet, and you know, it's like a lot
ofs around the cabinet table. You may not like what
you suggested, you just like the alternative, even less, which
(05:14):
was they were going to go to the UK and
make the Hobbits over there. Peda didn't want to go.
If you want to brothers thought he'd make a better
movie in a series of movies in New Zealand, like
he did. But the reality was that it's just a
business that gravitates to where the incentives are the greatest.
And so you've seen a hollowing out of the movie
(05:36):
industry in Hollywood, and so Trump is right about that actually,
and so I guess my point being, I think if
we all sit there and say, if he really can
put one hundred percent tariff on and let's or a
very significant terror I don't know exactly where it applies,
like for instance, I mean, you know, there's only so
much AI generation you might want to do of a
(05:57):
backdrop that was used in the making of you know,
any movies that have used New Zealand landscape, or where
you've used very specific technology out or where the workshops.
So let's just argue from moments of very large terrif
then there's just no getting away from the fact that
it will completely rebalance the cost effectiveness of where things
are made. But on the other side of the coin.
(06:17):
The only point I'd sort of make is that if
that meant that everyone eliminated any kind of subsidies, then
interestingly enough, actually New Zealand went on that basis because
we've always been a really good place to do things,
because of the skills and talent here and the natural landscape.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
Exactly. I was talking before the news about kids leaving
the country and the numbers and generally New Zealanders leaving
the country. As a person who can live anywhere in
the world, are you bullish for this place still?
Speaker 2 (06:46):
Yeah? I mean, you know the sort of argments that
you hear sometimes. You know, we're a giant retirement village
and with this and with that. Yeah, yeah, okay, but
I get that, and I don't want to be some
sort of ridiculous Pollyanna. But you know, I travel the
world quite a lot. I'm off the States next week,
and as I was in China last week, you still
get that feeling when you come home to New Zealand
(07:08):
where there's it's more than just look it's a nice
place to live in there. Every country you go to
has significant problems, I mean, just list them. In the
United States, from racial issues to break down trust in
the systems to it no longer independent judiciary. I mean,
you just go on on, can't you. But it still
doesn't mean it's not a great place to live. So
my point is that it's the same one I always
(07:29):
used to make when I was Prime mis Look, we
have tyranny of distance, always been our problem. We're at
the bottom of the world. Well, actually technology is changing
that very rapidly in helping us. We also are very small.
So while we you know, like you know, I have
sympathy for CRYSLU since PM, you know, there's slow to
turn things around, but we're still a lot quicker to
turn around in a bigger country. I mean, can we
(07:52):
with the right policies, with the rights of level of confidence,
with the right sense of enthusiasm, could we actually make
New Zealand you know, a fantastic better place than it
currently is. The answer is absolutely. And I always thought,
you know, like we campaigned three elections on ambitious for
New Zealand building a brighter future. Why do we do that?
(08:14):
Because that resonated number one with voters of anything we
ever tested through a focus group, and that shows you
people want their country to do really well and actually
for the most part, New Zealand is a hard working,
decent people. We actually do have decent institutions like a
very loyal and dependable police force and a proper judiciary
(08:37):
and all those things. So I guess that's a long
winded way of saying, we're a great place to grow things,
we're a beautiful place to visit. We do have some
very smartment Do we need to do a hell of
a lot better and pull our socks up and actually
do we need to be more welcoming to foreign capital,
smart foreigners who want to come and live here. People
(08:58):
who want to stop them these stupid things like, oh
I can't come here and buy a house something. For
God's say, if they've got an IQ that's well above
one hundred and they're bringing capital or whatever, let's have
them in the country generating jobs. But can we do it?
The answer is absolutely we can.
Speaker 1 (09:15):
Good stuff man, always good to talk to. You appreciate it.
So John Key for more from the Mic Asking Breakfast,
Listen live to news Talks. It'd be from six am weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
Big day for business in this country is hundreds gather
at the inaugural Ice House Ignite twenty five summit. The
plan has to spark business led growth in the economy
of the star. Turn is Sir John Key, who is
with us. Very good morning to you, Mollie, Mike. Are
we in need of a shot in the arm?
Speaker 2 (00:16):
Oh? Yeah. Look, I think if you walk out there
at the moment and ask people what's the business environment like,
I think most people would say it's been pretty tough
over the last eighteen months, a few years, but.
Speaker 3 (00:27):
You know, a bit, as they say in ice hockey,
it's a little bit less about where the puck's been
a bit more about where it's going. And I think
the fundamental reason we've been in such bad shape is
because interest rates have been in the wrong place, and
that's been.
Speaker 2 (00:40):
A slightly self induced position. Too much been by the
previous government, too much pressure, pretty slow to react I
think personally on the en straight environment from the Reserve Bank.
So do you accept that argument in straits have been lowered?
I think actually they're going to come down even more.
I mean it's less predictable from here, still lower and
(01:01):
you'll start breathing some confidence back, and I think you're
very slowly saying to see that in the housing market, agriculture,
as you point out in your show many times, is
on fire. And actually I think there's some things the
governments are doing. I mean my understanding is the uptake
of this high neck with individual visa category is really
starting to pour an in big way. So again, you know,
(01:22):
there's some light at the end of the tunnel.
Speaker 1 (01:24):
Really, Okay, Having said all of that, do we know
where the puck is going when we've got a bloke
in America who's changing the rules literally on a daily basis.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
Yeah, I mean, you know, to describe as unpredictable would be,
you know, an understatement. But let's just take one step
back and say what do we know? Okay, So Donald
Trump hates trade Oar's hairs. Go and look at the
videos of the forty years ago. He hasn't changed, saying
the same thing as he was then as he is now.
And he fundamentally thinks that the playing field is not
(01:53):
level and America gets taken advantage of now to a
degree a level playing field. Right, not say I agree
with his policies, I'm saying it's got a point. So
then you still say, okay, well he's put on these
massive tariffs, and what did he get an enormous vomit from,
you know, the stock market and the bond markets, and
(02:15):
that forced them to take them off with everyone except China.
So le's part China up for a few seconds. I
was here last week at shit in China. But take
that out, you know, take that off the table for
a second, because they're an individual case. Then what he's
sort of saying is, well, I'm going to negotiate with people,
and I'm going to negotiate with countries. We'll see how
it all goes. If you don't play ball, I'll put
it back on. But here's the best predictor I think
(02:38):
for markets, and that is the markets themselves, the stop market,
the bond markets, the currency markets. They are not buying
that he's leaving massive tariffs on. When you put them on,
they had a terrible reaction. You know, as Andrew Keller
points out on your show every morning. You know, that's
not been the situation for the last twelve So these
(03:00):
people are pretty smart and they've worked out that he's
going to negotiate some solution.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
Okay, India, our boots are on the ground for this FTA.
You tried, you couldn't do it. Will they this time?
And will it be quality?
Speaker 2 (03:13):
Got a better chance with Mum with Modi. I was
there with Mum hun sing lovely man actually passed away recently,
but you know, I was up against the bureaucracy. Never
want to do it.
Speaker 4 (03:24):
I think this is the way to look at it
is that I think if you believe you're going to
get a comprehensive, you know, incredible sup to nuts FTA
with India in day one, then I think you're going.
Speaker 2 (03:37):
To be disappointed. And I mean I remember standing in
the Beehive theaterre doing a press conference with the visiting
then in the Minister of Trade from India and he said,
I'll do an FTA with New Zealand on the podium
right here, right now. And I said, yeah, but you'll
exclude agriculture, and you'll exclude all of all the things
(03:59):
we want right And it's like a lot of things
in life. You can write anything down, but if you
exclude the bits that matter, it doesn't do much. So
my point would be you can always get an FDA.
That's not the judge. It's the quality or the tests.
It's the quality of what actually comes out at the
other end. But I suspect what's going to happen is
they're going to get what in sort of trade talker
(04:20):
is called the early harvest. I think they'll get certain
categories where they'll get some gain. So for the likes
of maybe a zespre for instance, could be really really
important and really useful across the board. That takes a
much longer period of time.
Speaker 1 (04:34):
You made a very good point about the Trump point,
which is that it's not a level playing field. And
one of the people who moved the level playing field
away from being leveled was you when you're older Jackson
into Premier House and the LTD all those years ago
and on that Trump is right, isn't he?
Speaker 2 (04:50):
Yeah? No, no, Look, here's the deal. I mean, when
we are put in the incentives, which there were already
something sentences there, but we fundamentally made them better. Let's
be on for the movie industry. I remember the discussions
around the cabinet, and you know, it's like a lot
ofs around the cabinet table. You may not like what
you suggested, you just like the alternative, even less, which
(05:14):
was they were going to go to the UK and
make the Hobbits over there. Peda didn't want to go.
If you want to brothers thought he'd make a better
movie in a series of movies in New Zealand, like
he did. But the reality was that it's just a
business that gravitates to where the incentives are the greatest.
And so you've seen a hollowing out of the movie
(05:36):
industry in Hollywood, and so Trump is right about that actually,
and so I guess my point being, I think if
we all sit there and say, if he really can
put one hundred percent tariff on and let's or a
very significant terror I don't know exactly where it applies,
like for instance, I mean, you know, there's only so
much AI generation you might want to do of a
(05:57):
backdrop that was used in the making of you know,
any movies that have used New Zealand landscape, or where
you've used very specific technology out or where the workshops.
So let's just argue from moments of very large terrif
then there's just no getting away from the fact that
it will completely rebalance the cost effectiveness of where things
are made. But on the other side of the coin.
(06:17):
The only point I'd sort of make is that if
that meant that everyone eliminated any kind of subsidies, then
interestingly enough, actually New Zealand went on that basis because
we've always been a really good place to do things,
because of the skills and talent here and the natural landscape.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
Exactly. I was talking before the news about kids leaving
the country and the numbers and generally New Zealanders leaving
the country. As a person who can live anywhere in
the world, are you bullish for this place still?
Speaker 2 (06:46):
Yeah? I mean, you know the sort of argments that
you hear sometimes. You know, we're a giant retirement village
and with this and with that. Yeah, yeah, okay, but
I get that, and I don't want to be some
sort of ridiculous Pollyanna. But you know, I travel the
world quite a lot. I'm off the States next week,
and as I was in China last week, you still
get that feeling when you come home to New Zealand
(07:08):
where there's it's more than just look it's a nice
place to live in there. Every country you go to
has significant problems, I mean, just list them. In the
United States, from racial issues to break down trust in
the systems to it no longer independent judiciary. I mean,
you just go on on, can't you. But it still
doesn't mean it's not a great place to live. So
my point is that it's the same one I always
(07:29):
used to make when I was Prime mis Look, we
have tyranny of distance, always been our problem. We're at
the bottom of the world. Well, actually technology is changing
that very rapidly in helping us. We also are very small.
So while we you know, like you know, I have
sympathy for CRYSLU since PM, you know, there's slow to
turn things around, but we're still a lot quicker to
turn around in a bigger country. I mean, can we
(07:52):
with the right policies, with the rights of level of confidence,
with the right sense of enthusiasm, could we actually make
New Zealand you know, a fantastic better place than it
currently is. The answer is absolutely. And I always thought,
you know, like we campaigned three elections on ambitious for
New Zealand building a brighter future. Why do we do that?
(08:14):
Because that resonated number one with voters of anything we
ever tested through a focus group, and that shows you
people want their country to do really well and actually
for the most part, New Zealand is a hard working,
decent people. We actually do have decent institutions like a
very loyal and dependable police force and a proper judiciary
(08:37):
and all those things. So I guess that's a long
winded way of saying, we're a great place to grow things,
we're a beautiful place to visit. We do have some
very smartment Do we need to do a hell of
a lot better and pull our socks up and actually
do we need to be more welcoming to foreign capital,
smart foreigners who want to come and live here. People
(08:58):
who want to stop them these stupid things like, oh
I can't come here and buy a house something. For
God's say, if they've got an IQ that's well above
one hundred and they're bringing capital or whatever, let's have
them in the country generating jobs. But can we do it?
The answer is absolutely we can.
Speaker 1 (09:15):
Good stuff man, always good to talk to. You appreciate it.
So John Key for more from the Mic Asking Breakfast,
Listen live to news Talks. It'd be from six am weekdays,
or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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