February 16, 2025 • 7 mins
More polls are in for the upcoming Australian election.
A poll in The Australian says the swing to the coalition would be about 3% if an election was held next weekend.
If realised, Peter Dutton would have eight seats, where he needs 16.
Australian Correspondent Steve Price says all polls are indicating to a repeat of the Albanese government.
"I think, that Anthony Albanese is going to hang on by his fingernails and form a minority government," he said.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Right in Australia see Price. Very good morning to you.
So I've got a news poll and I've got another poll.
One poll seems dramatic, iss the other one doesn't seem
as dramatic. What do we make What do we think?
Has he got the numbers to form a majority or
is he going to win the election but fall short
or are all the polls wrong and we wouldn't have
a clue.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Is the he you're referring to Prime minister or the.
Speaker 1 (00:21):
Opposition doesn't seems to be the one on the ascendanc.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Look, all of these polls are now indicating I think
that Anthony alberniez is going to hang on by his
fingernails and form a minority government. I heard someone, a
commentator during the week last week referred to it as
the New Zealand style of elections where the major parties
never have enough numbers to win in their own right,
so they always have to have coalitions aar lah Winston Peters,
(00:49):
and I think that's not a bad assessment. We have
a poll out in the Australian excuse me this morning
that says if there were an election to be held
next weekend, the swing to the the colalicition would be
about three percent. That's not enough. That would give Peter
Dutton maybe eight seats and he needs more like sixteen
to seventeen. Now are these pollsals correct and I they're not.
(01:12):
Could things change dramatically between now and an election that
could be held in March April May. Of course they can.
I mean we may have an interest rate clut tomorrow
which would help out the government. But certainly Anthony Alberneezi
individually is on the noses record low approval rating of
minus twenty one. Coalition is on fifty one to party
(01:34):
preferred in Labor and forty nine. So we are headed
for the worst possible outcome, Mike, I think, which is
a minority labor government where they're going to have to
deal with the tier independence, particularly if they all get
re elected, and they'll take you back to the time
when Julia Gillard had to deal with three independents that
was complete not a disaster, and that government then got
(01:56):
thrown out when Rudd came back. So where you've got
history repeating it sadly and it's not good for us. Tradia.
Speaker 1 (02:02):
How many individual stories are there? And the reason I
asked that is. I saw a story over the weekend
on Sky News and it was talking about Queensland specifically.
I think Brisbane, where the Greens did well and they've
got three seats, and it's possible they're going to lose
two of them and go down to one, despite the
fact they're claiming they're going to win even more. Those
individual stories and then you get to your by elections
(02:22):
in Victoria, places like Paran. How many of those individual
stories out there, and it could actually swing in a
way that no one sees coming.
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Possibly, although the Green vote is definitely in decline, you
mention those seats in Brisbane, they'll definitely lose two of those.
I would think that Labor might pick those seats up,
so that doesn't necessarily help the coalition. There was a
swing against the Greens in a by election in Melbourne
last weekend of somewhere around sixteen percent, so they are
very much on the nose. They beligind themselves directly with
(02:51):
the pro Palestinian movement. They're now seen pretty much as
a hard left socialist agitating party rather than the Party
of the Environment, so they're in big trouble. But these
independents and they don't like being joined up and called
the Teal Party, but that's basically what they are. They're
going to be well funded again and people will park
their votes with community independence and with our preference system here,
(03:15):
you know, depending on how that independent approaches the election
and policies they have, those preferences often flow to the
Labor Party and not for the coalition. So we're in
a look. Peter Button's confident out. There was a three
page interview with him in the News limit of papers
at the weekend. He was basically saying yes, weekend win.
So he's trying to just remain completely positive. And Anthony
(03:38):
Albaneze's floundering around at the moment and we still don't
know when the election will book, do you are?
Speaker 1 (03:43):
I was going to ask about that because we had
Scott Morrison on the program Friday. He said it depends
on the budget. They go with the budget, they'll go later.
But is April twelve still the hot money pretty much?
Speaker 2 (03:52):
So yeah, most people don't think as mister Morrison did
that they want to come out with a budget. I
mean the budget position's not great. They'd have to make
a lot of promises, they'd have to splash around a
lot of cash. I don't believe they want to have
a budget and if they can avoid it, they will.
Speaker 1 (04:09):
And when you say Dutton was the three page I
saw he talked to Karl Stefanovic last night on Channel nine.
He was with Peter Kredlin the other day. Is he
on some mess surge? And if he's on a mass surge,
when the average Australian looks at him listens to him,
do they like him or not?
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Depends what state you're in, really, I mean, I live
in the great socialist state of Victoria, so he'd be
less popular here, although in the outer suburban Melbourne the
state government so on the nose that they probably think
that Peter Dutton might be able to save them. I
think he has done a remarkable job in the last
two years and he's turned around his image. He's very
(04:47):
popular in Queensland, pretty popular in WA and reasonably popular
in New South Wales. I mean, he's not the problem.
The problem is these independents are going to soak up
too many of the votes and the Colors is just
simply not going to have enough to get up. Look.
I might be completely wrong, but I think we're a
bit of the labor minority government.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
Okay, fair enough. The Police Commissioner of Victoria, so they
I didn't know you had votes and stuff like that.
So he's quit because no one's got confidence in them.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
Yeah, the union had a vote eighty seven cent said
they didn't want him. He's been under pressure. He was
due to be re signed for another five year contract.
That all fell over, and so late last night he
actually came out and quit. The force had been told
they had to cut a billion dollars out of their budget.
I mean, this goes back to COVID. The law and
order debate goes all the way back to COVID, when
(05:36):
the Victoria police were forced to fire rubber bullets on
Victorians protesting about being locked up by Dan Andrews. As
simple as that. And also the anti vax movement the
police turned on them as well, and so Shane Patten's
the vote's name. He's not been popular since then, and
so he quit overnight. They put a bloke in charge
in the meantime while they make a search around the
(05:58):
world to find a new police.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
Commission Are we with the nurses?
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Was it was?
Speaker 1 (06:01):
I can't remember it was it morphine? They found in
the locker.
Speaker 2 (06:04):
Yeah, the ah Mad Nadir, his locker at the Bankstown
Hospital searched by police and they found morphine. There's been
no charges laid yet, which puzzles a lot of people.
They've searched both of these. The other one, of course,
was Abu Labda. She was the one that said she
would like to kill Israelis or Jews if they came
(06:27):
to her hospital. No charges have been laid and that
puzzles a lot of people. Detectives. They've got the full
interview that these two gave to the Israeli influencer. They
were complaining at one point that he would not give
over the full tape. That's because they gave him the
wrong address to email it too. But I think most
Australians are looking at this and the caravan with explosives
(06:50):
incident and going, well, hang on a minute, it was
no one ever been charged about any of these things.
There's still been no charges laid on the fire bombing
of the synagogue in mal but it would appear that
the police forces are having great difficulty in trying to
work out what to do about threats like this, and
in the meantime, the Jewish community in Australia were absolutely
(07:11):
petrified about what might happen next. Unreal.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
All right, mate, see Wednesday, appreciate it very much. Steep Price.
The caravan thing. I was watching something yesterday is interesting.
The explosives were forty years old and one of the
early indications was and it turned out the bloke was right.
I saw an interview with the Crime metor or whatever
he was, one of the Sydney papers. He said, you'll
probably find it's criminal related in the sense that they'll
be looking to cut a deal with the police, and
that appears to be what's happened. For more from the
(07:36):
Mike Asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks it'd be
from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
Right in Australia see Price. Very good morning to you.
So I've got a news poll and I've got another poll.
One poll seems dramatic, iss the other one doesn't seem
as dramatic. What do we make What do we think?
Has he got the numbers to form a majority or
is he going to win the election but fall short
or are all the polls wrong and we wouldn't have
a clue.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Is the he you're referring to Prime minister or the.
Speaker 1 (00:21):
Opposition doesn't seems to be the one on the ascendanc.
Speaker 2 (00:26):
Look, all of these polls are now indicating I think
that Anthony alberniez is going to hang on by his
fingernails and form a minority government. I heard someone, a
commentator during the week last week referred to it as
the New Zealand style of elections where the major parties
never have enough numbers to win in their own right,
so they always have to have coalitions aar lah Winston Peters,
(00:49):
and I think that's not a bad assessment. We have
a poll out in the Australian excuse me this morning
that says if there were an election to be held
next weekend, the swing to the the colalicition would be
about three percent. That's not enough. That would give Peter
Dutton maybe eight seats and he needs more like sixteen
to seventeen. Now are these pollsals correct and I they're not.
(01:12):
Could things change dramatically between now and an election that
could be held in March April May. Of course they can.
I mean we may have an interest rate clut tomorrow
which would help out the government. But certainly Anthony Alberneezi
individually is on the noses record low approval rating of
minus twenty one. Coalition is on fifty one to party
(01:34):
preferred in Labor and forty nine. So we are headed
for the worst possible outcome, Mike, I think, which is
a minority labor government where they're going to have to
deal with the tier independence, particularly if they all get
re elected, and they'll take you back to the time
when Julia Gillard had to deal with three independents that
was complete not a disaster, and that government then got
(01:56):
thrown out when Rudd came back. So where you've got
history repeating it sadly and it's not good for us. Tradia.
Speaker 1 (02:02):
How many individual stories are there? And the reason I
asked that is. I saw a story over the weekend
on Sky News and it was talking about Queensland specifically.
I think Brisbane, where the Greens did well and they've
got three seats, and it's possible they're going to lose
two of them and go down to one, despite the
fact they're claiming they're going to win even more. Those
individual stories and then you get to your by elections
(02:22):
in Victoria, places like Paran. How many of those individual
stories out there, and it could actually swing in a
way that no one sees coming.
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Possibly, although the Green vote is definitely in decline, you
mention those seats in Brisbane, they'll definitely lose two of those.
I would think that Labor might pick those seats up,
so that doesn't necessarily help the coalition. There was a
swing against the Greens in a by election in Melbourne
last weekend of somewhere around sixteen percent, so they are
very much on the nose. They beligind themselves directly with
(02:51):
the pro Palestinian movement. They're now seen pretty much as
a hard left socialist agitating party rather than the Party
of the Environment, so they're in big trouble. But these
independents and they don't like being joined up and called
the Teal Party, but that's basically what they are. They're
going to be well funded again and people will park
their votes with community independence and with our preference system here,
(03:15):
you know, depending on how that independent approaches the election
and policies they have, those preferences often flow to the
Labor Party and not for the coalition. So we're in
a look. Peter Button's confident out. There was a three
page interview with him in the News limit of papers
at the weekend. He was basically saying yes, weekend win.
So he's trying to just remain completely positive. And Anthony
(03:38):
Albaneze's floundering around at the moment and we still don't
know when the election will book, do you are?
Speaker 1 (03:43):
I was going to ask about that because we had
Scott Morrison on the program Friday. He said it depends
on the budget. They go with the budget, they'll go later.
But is April twelve still the hot money pretty much?
Speaker 2 (03:52):
So yeah, most people don't think as mister Morrison did
that they want to come out with a budget. I
mean the budget position's not great. They'd have to make
a lot of promises, they'd have to splash around a
lot of cash. I don't believe they want to have
a budget and if they can avoid it, they will.
Speaker 1 (04:09):
And when you say Dutton was the three page I
saw he talked to Karl Stefanovic last night on Channel nine.
He was with Peter Kredlin the other day. Is he
on some mess surge? And if he's on a mass surge,
when the average Australian looks at him listens to him,
do they like him or not?
Speaker 2 (04:26):
Depends what state you're in, really, I mean, I live
in the great socialist state of Victoria, so he'd be
less popular here, although in the outer suburban Melbourne the
state government so on the nose that they probably think
that Peter Dutton might be able to save them. I
think he has done a remarkable job in the last
two years and he's turned around his image. He's very
(04:47):
popular in Queensland, pretty popular in WA and reasonably popular
in New South Wales. I mean, he's not the problem.
The problem is these independents are going to soak up
too many of the votes and the Colors is just
simply not going to have enough to get up. Look.
I might be completely wrong, but I think we're a
bit of the labor minority government.
Speaker 1 (05:07):
Okay, fair enough. The Police Commissioner of Victoria, so they
I didn't know you had votes and stuff like that.
So he's quit because no one's got confidence in them.
Speaker 2 (05:14):
Yeah, the union had a vote eighty seven cent said
they didn't want him. He's been under pressure. He was
due to be re signed for another five year contract.
That all fell over, and so late last night he
actually came out and quit. The force had been told
they had to cut a billion dollars out of their budget.
I mean, this goes back to COVID. The law and
order debate goes all the way back to COVID, when
(05:36):
the Victoria police were forced to fire rubber bullets on
Victorians protesting about being locked up by Dan Andrews. As
simple as that. And also the anti vax movement the
police turned on them as well, and so Shane Patten's
the vote's name. He's not been popular since then, and
so he quit overnight. They put a bloke in charge
in the meantime while they make a search around the
(05:58):
world to find a new police.
Speaker 1 (05:59):
Commission Are we with the nurses?
Speaker 2 (06:00):
Was it was?
Speaker 1 (06:01):
I can't remember it was it morphine? They found in
the locker.
Speaker 2 (06:04):
Yeah, the ah Mad Nadir, his locker at the Bankstown
Hospital searched by police and they found morphine. There's been
no charges laid yet, which puzzles a lot of people.
They've searched both of these. The other one, of course,
was Abu Labda. She was the one that said she
would like to kill Israelis or Jews if they came
(06:27):
to her hospital. No charges have been laid and that
puzzles a lot of people. Detectives. They've got the full
interview that these two gave to the Israeli influencer. They
were complaining at one point that he would not give
over the full tape. That's because they gave him the
wrong address to email it too. But I think most
Australians are looking at this and the caravan with explosives
(06:50):
incident and going, well, hang on a minute, it was
no one ever been charged about any of these things.
There's still been no charges laid on the fire bombing
of the synagogue in mal but it would appear that
the police forces are having great difficulty in trying to
work out what to do about threats like this, and
in the meantime, the Jewish community in Australia were absolutely
(07:11):
petrified about what might happen next. Unreal.
Speaker 1 (07:14):
All right, mate, see Wednesday, appreciate it very much. Steep Price.
The caravan thing. I was watching something yesterday is interesting.
The explosives were forty years old and one of the
early indications was and it turned out the bloke was right.
I saw an interview with the Crime metor or whatever
he was, one of the Sydney papers. He said, you'll
probably find it's criminal related in the sense that they'll
be looking to cut a deal with the police, and
that appears to be what's happened. For more from the
(07:36):
Mike Asking Breakfast, listen live to news talks it'd be
from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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