February 23, 2025 • 7 mins
The German Conservative party has been elected, securing the largest part in the next German parliament.
The party received nearly 30% of the vote.
The Far-right party has come second.
Co-founder and director of the Global Public Policy Institute Thorsten Benner discusses the details of the election with Mike Hosking.
LISTEN ABOVE.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.
Mark as Played
Transcript
Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Back to the German election they've been voting. Although it's
a cliche, it feels like one of the most consequential
elections in a very long time. Odds on favorite to
try and be chancellor, as Frederic Mertz of the Christian
Democrat Union CDU. Anyway, Torsten Benna is co founder and
director of the Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin and
as well us very good morning to you.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Wonderful good morning Mike.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
So the numbers come out the way everyone I assume
I'm correct and saying this is the way most people
thought they were going to How do they form a
government and who do they form it with?
Speaker 2 (00:31):
That's the big open question.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Indeed, no huge surprises in the results so far, except
for a mini surge of the Left Party that very
few expected that way.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
But the big question now is it's too early.
Speaker 3 (00:46):
It's too early to call, and took close to call
whether two of the smaller parties make the five percent threshold.
If they indeed pass the five percent threshold, that means
that we need three governor of three parties to form
a collision that will be protracted. Will take quite a
long time. If they don't make it, then I think
(01:06):
the odds are that Fred Dechmertz the chancellor, the new
chancellor can govern with the outgoing Social Democrats.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
Okay, so let's just work through a couple of the
issues for people who don't necessarily follow the CDUCSU twenty
nine percent, they're in the box seat. The parties you
refer to, I think are the BSW and the FDP
four point seven exactly your four point seven and four
point nine percent. Who are they and what sort of
policies do they offer and how closely aligned to the
cduc SU are they.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
The FDP is a liberal pro business party and BSW
is a new party that hasn't been It's a party
formed by a former Left Party member who pursue some
sort of pro Kremlin, anti walk but kind of pro
social welfare issues agenda.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
Wow, that sounds confusing SPD and Schultz does he is? He?
Speaker 3 (02:03):
Well, national social has been a tradition in Germany, kind
of marrying the two.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
But anyway, Yeah, so the SPD. Is Shultz happy to
go from being chancellor to the third wheel.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
No, No, it's clear that Charts is out.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
He said, like he will not join a new government.
Speaker 2 (02:21):
It's not like in new Zealand.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
Sometimes you know, the foreign ministers, the former prime minister, whatever,
like those things don't happen. Usually in Germany he's into
retirement and then it's a new cast of leaders. Maybe
for the Social Democrats. Their result is disastrous, they lost
about ten percent, so there might well be a leadership
(02:46):
upheaval also in the party. Beyond charts, you know, saying
that he will not join a new government.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
But at twenty nine percent, I'm just doing the rough
math here. The CDUC is here at twenty nine percent,
even if they go with the SPD sixteen, there's still
not fifty. Is that a minority government.
Speaker 2 (03:03):
No, it's not a minority government.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
It's the two other Are you talking about a five
party four party.
Speaker 2 (03:11):
Exactly?
Speaker 3 (03:12):
So if if they don't, if they don't make it
into parliament, but that's they will not govern with the CDU,
then these two small parties the government will then be
most likely either CDU Social Democrats Green or CDU Social
Democrats and this liberal party bs W will not.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Be in government. But anyway, we're talking a lot about
the options.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
But I think it's it's really important that new government
has its work cut out for it. We need to
invest massively into security spending with Donald Trump pulling the
rug from under our feet and put in advancing on us.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
But isn't that the point? Isn't that the point? If
you've got some sort of jury manned three or four
party coalition, can they agree on anything sustintive, like you know,
the issues you've just right, it will.
Speaker 2 (04:04):
Be, as you know, will be very tough.
Speaker 3 (04:07):
And and and the past government felt because it couldn't
agree on a solid fiscal base to kind of agree
on spending goals. It won't be easy for a three
party coalition. For a two party coalition, I think it
might well be in the cards.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
That it's somewhat easier.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
Can we definitely one hundred percent hand on hard rule
out a deal with the ifd.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
Well, I can't, you know, I would say ninety nine
point nine percent or one hundred percent, because.
Speaker 2 (04:43):
That will you know, if him does that.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
For the Christian Democrats, he'll instantly split his party, I think,
because there's many in the Christian Democratic Union that would
object to such a move, and they would you know,
that would achieve the very goal of this extreme right
wing AfD party. They want to split the Christian Democratic
Union as a party.
Speaker 1 (05:06):
What about the alternative though? If the AfD, what was
as a voter? Why would I have voted for the AfD?
Got my nineteen and a half twenty percent? Know that
I don't get into government, and what's preventing me from going?
You know what, as much as I might like them,
they're not going anywhere, and no one wants to deal
with them. I'll wander off and vote for somebody else.
Speaker 3 (05:26):
Well, it's a protest board, right, it's not unheard of.
And you send a message that you don't like the
migration policy that Europe and Germany is pursuing, You're angry
at the massive inflation that has hurt your pocket book,
and you don't like the pro Ukraine policy that the
government and the mainstream parties have pursued. And if you
(05:47):
say stop and I'm angry with you, then it's a
you know, it's a nice way to you know, show
the middle finger to the establishment.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
It's not a new phenomenon.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
What, Torsten, how's the campaign gone? What's the vibe in Germany?
It seems like a really troubled time in the world
at the moment. Is that what you're getting?
Speaker 2 (06:07):
Yes?
Speaker 3 (06:08):
But the campaign was totally disconnected from the seriousness of
the kind of security situation in the economic situation that
Germany is facing. Germany's we didn't discuss China at all
in the campaign, which I find personally quite ludicrous, given
that our core industries is expected to suffer from a
China shock, China eating our lunch in terms of our
(06:31):
core industry, in terms of unfair competition, and of course
Donald Trump is wreaking havoc, the biggest crisis of the
Alliance in eight decades, and we have no clue how
we are going to deal with it and provide for
our own security and fend off this trade war that
Trump is starting. So but we didn't really discuss this
(06:52):
during the campaign. We kind of indulged in a bit
of a nostalgic self referential campaign.
Speaker 2 (06:58):
But hey, here we are.
Speaker 3 (07:01):
We now need to form a government and Donald Trump
is certainly not waiting for us.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
I like your style, mate, We'll get you on again.
Torston Benner, who's the co founder and director of the
Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin's For more from the
Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to news Talks at b
from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio,
Back to the German election they've been voting. Although it's
a cliche, it feels like one of the most consequential
elections in a very long time. Odds on favorite to
try and be chancellor, as Frederic Mertz of the Christian
Democrat Union CDU. Anyway, Torsten Benna is co founder and
director of the Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin and
as well us very good morning to you.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
Wonderful good morning Mike.
Speaker 1 (00:20):
So the numbers come out the way everyone I assume
I'm correct and saying this is the way most people
thought they were going to How do they form a
government and who do they form it with?
Speaker 2 (00:31):
That's the big open question.
Speaker 3 (00:32):
Indeed, no huge surprises in the results so far, except
for a mini surge of the Left Party that very
few expected that way.
Speaker 2 (00:43):
But the big question now is it's too early.
Speaker 3 (00:46):
It's too early to call, and took close to call
whether two of the smaller parties make the five percent threshold.
If they indeed pass the five percent threshold, that means
that we need three governor of three parties to form
a collision that will be protracted. Will take quite a
long time. If they don't make it, then I think
(01:06):
the odds are that Fred Dechmertz the chancellor, the new
chancellor can govern with the outgoing Social Democrats.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
Okay, so let's just work through a couple of the
issues for people who don't necessarily follow the CDUCSU twenty
nine percent, they're in the box seat. The parties you
refer to, I think are the BSW and the FDP
four point seven exactly your four point seven and four
point nine percent. Who are they and what sort of
policies do they offer and how closely aligned to the
cduc SU are they.
Speaker 3 (01:36):
The FDP is a liberal pro business party and BSW
is a new party that hasn't been It's a party
formed by a former Left Party member who pursue some
sort of pro Kremlin, anti walk but kind of pro
social welfare issues agenda.
Speaker 1 (01:58):
Wow, that sounds confusing SPD and Schultz does he is? He?
Speaker 3 (02:03):
Well, national social has been a tradition in Germany, kind
of marrying the two.
Speaker 1 (02:08):
But anyway, Yeah, so the SPD. Is Shultz happy to
go from being chancellor to the third wheel.
Speaker 2 (02:16):
No, No, it's clear that Charts is out.
Speaker 3 (02:18):
He said, like he will not join a new government.
Speaker 2 (02:21):
It's not like in new Zealand.
Speaker 3 (02:23):
Sometimes you know, the foreign ministers, the former prime minister, whatever,
like those things don't happen. Usually in Germany he's into
retirement and then it's a new cast of leaders. Maybe
for the Social Democrats. Their result is disastrous, they lost
about ten percent, so there might well be a leadership
(02:46):
upheaval also in the party. Beyond charts, you know, saying
that he will not join a new government.
Speaker 1 (02:54):
But at twenty nine percent, I'm just doing the rough
math here. The CDUC is here at twenty nine percent,
even if they go with the SPD sixteen, there's still
not fifty. Is that a minority government.
Speaker 2 (03:03):
No, it's not a minority government.
Speaker 1 (03:05):
It's the two other Are you talking about a five
party four party.
Speaker 2 (03:11):
Exactly?
Speaker 3 (03:12):
So if if they don't, if they don't make it
into parliament, but that's they will not govern with the CDU,
then these two small parties the government will then be
most likely either CDU Social Democrats Green or CDU Social
Democrats and this liberal party bs W will not.
Speaker 2 (03:34):
Be in government. But anyway, we're talking a lot about
the options.
Speaker 3 (03:38):
But I think it's it's really important that new government
has its work cut out for it. We need to
invest massively into security spending with Donald Trump pulling the
rug from under our feet and put in advancing on us.
Speaker 1 (03:54):
But isn't that the point? Isn't that the point? If
you've got some sort of jury manned three or four
party coalition, can they agree on anything sustintive, like you know,
the issues you've just right, it will.
Speaker 2 (04:04):
Be, as you know, will be very tough.
Speaker 3 (04:07):
And and and the past government felt because it couldn't
agree on a solid fiscal base to kind of agree
on spending goals. It won't be easy for a three
party coalition. For a two party coalition, I think it
might well be in the cards.
Speaker 2 (04:27):
That it's somewhat easier.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
Can we definitely one hundred percent hand on hard rule
out a deal with the ifd.
Speaker 3 (04:36):
Well, I can't, you know, I would say ninety nine
point nine percent or one hundred percent, because.
Speaker 2 (04:43):
That will you know, if him does that.
Speaker 3 (04:45):
For the Christian Democrats, he'll instantly split his party, I think,
because there's many in the Christian Democratic Union that would
object to such a move, and they would you know,
that would achieve the very goal of this extreme right
wing AfD party. They want to split the Christian Democratic
Union as a party.
Speaker 1 (05:06):
What about the alternative though? If the AfD, what was
as a voter? Why would I have voted for the AfD?
Got my nineteen and a half twenty percent? Know that
I don't get into government, and what's preventing me from going?
You know what, as much as I might like them,
they're not going anywhere, and no one wants to deal
with them. I'll wander off and vote for somebody else.
Speaker 3 (05:26):
Well, it's a protest board, right, it's not unheard of.
And you send a message that you don't like the
migration policy that Europe and Germany is pursuing, You're angry
at the massive inflation that has hurt your pocket book,
and you don't like the pro Ukraine policy that the
government and the mainstream parties have pursued. And if you
(05:47):
say stop and I'm angry with you, then it's a
you know, it's a nice way to you know, show
the middle finger to the establishment.
Speaker 2 (05:56):
It's not a new phenomenon.
Speaker 1 (05:58):
What, Torsten, how's the campaign gone? What's the vibe in Germany?
It seems like a really troubled time in the world
at the moment. Is that what you're getting?
Speaker 2 (06:07):
Yes?
Speaker 3 (06:08):
But the campaign was totally disconnected from the seriousness of
the kind of security situation in the economic situation that
Germany is facing. Germany's we didn't discuss China at all
in the campaign, which I find personally quite ludicrous, given
that our core industries is expected to suffer from a
China shock, China eating our lunch in terms of our
(06:31):
core industry, in terms of unfair competition, and of course
Donald Trump is wreaking havoc, the biggest crisis of the
Alliance in eight decades, and we have no clue how
we are going to deal with it and provide for
our own security and fend off this trade war that
Trump is starting. So but we didn't really discuss this
(06:52):
during the campaign. We kind of indulged in a bit
of a nostalgic self referential campaign.
Speaker 2 (06:58):
But hey, here we are.
Speaker 3 (07:01):
We now need to form a government and Donald Trump
is certainly not waiting for us.
Speaker 1 (07:05):
I like your style, mate, We'll get you on again.
Torston Benner, who's the co founder and director of the
Global Public Policy Institute in Berlin's For more from the
Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to news Talks at b
from six am weekdays, or follow the podcast on iHeartRadio,
Popular Podcasts
Are You A Charlotte?
In 1997, actress Kristin Davis’ life was forever changed when she took on the role of Charlotte York in Sex and the City. As we watched Carrie, Samantha, Miranda and Charlotte navigate relationships in NYC, the show helped push once unacceptable conversation topics out of the shadows and altered the narrative around women and sex. We all saw ourselves in them as they searched for fulfillment in life, sex and friendships. Now, Kristin Davis wants to connect with you, the fans, and share untold stories and all the behind the scenes. Together, with Kristin and special guests, what will begin with Sex and the City will evolve into talks about themes that are still so relevant today. "Are you a Charlotte?" is much more than just rewatching this beloved show, it brings the past and the present together as we talk with heart, humor and of course some optimism.
Dateline NBC
Current and classic episodes, featuring compelling true-crime mysteries, powerful documentaries and in-depth investigations. Follow now to get the latest episodes of Dateline NBC completely free, or subscribe to Dateline Premium for ad-free listening and exclusive bonus content: DatelinePremium.com
Stuff You Should Know
If you've ever wanted to know about champagne, satanism, the Stonewall Uprising, chaos theory, LSD, El Nino, true crime and Rosa Parks, then look no further. Josh and Chuck have you covered.