July 31, 2025 • 4 mins
New Zealand has yet to hear from the US ahead of Donald Trump's latest tariff deadline – 4pm today, New Zealand time.
The White House says all countries will have heard from the US by that time.
The US President has indicated he'll raise tariffs, including the 10% baseline tariff imposed on goods from New Zealand and most other countries.
Trade Minister Todd McClay told Mike Hosking our Government is still waiting to hear what that increase will be.
He says there are indications that the new minimum base line tariff rate will be 15%, and it's an anxious time for exporters.
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Apparently, because you can never tell with the White House
(00:01):
the rest of the world, which is us going to
get the final tariff number sometime between down four o'clock
this afternoon. Numbers have flown all week, of course, fifty
for Brazil, twenty five for India, nineteen for Indonesia, fifteen
to the EU. Todd McLay Trade Minister's with us, good morning.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Make good morning.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
As you sit here this Friday morning, do you know
what tomorrow's number for US is?
Speaker 2 (00:20):
No, No, we don't at all. I mean, the only
real information we have is the same as everyone else
in New Zealand, what's filtering through the world's news media.
I wake up this morning and see that they may
have done something else quite punitive against Canada. So unfortunately
it's a bit of a wait and see. But indications
are that there could be fifteen percent coming across the
(00:42):
board for everybody in the world. That's a minimum. But
you know, it's an anxious time for some of our exporters.
I guess there's so much uncertainty.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Indeed, there is also an indication it could be twenty
Do you rule that out?
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Well, well, we don't know, I was saying to some
of the media yesterday that you know, we've been engaging.
There's ongoing conversations, you know, me at my level with
my counterpart there, it's been extremely constructive. Our embassy is
talking all the time. But you know, it's not sure.
I think, you know, you think about Australia. They've got
a trade deal with America and there I understand it
exactly the same position where I guess it will unfold
(01:17):
through the media once again.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
Yeah, But the problem is that David Seymour we had
on the program earlier this week, he seemed to take
the look it is, it is what it is. They're
the government of America. They can do whatever they want.
Is that true? And if it is, how do you
debtail that with what Luxon said, and that is we
don't want to be materially worse off than anyone else,
which we may well be.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
Well, we'll only be materially worse off if others have
a lower tariff. Right, So at the moment we said
at ten percent, which is the floor. In my meeting
with jameson Grea, who's my counterpart, he said, that's the
new floor. If that floor goes up, but it's just
going to be harmful for New Zealand because tariffs are
not good. But we're no less competitive than anybody else.
(01:58):
If others are below that, ever the new rates, then
it would be hard. What we are seeing from our
exporters is in some cases more demand. They're selling more.
Many have just passed that tariff on, so it means
higher prices for the US. Others are actually saying, well,
I think Europe's a better market. There's more certainly, and
we're getting better prices, so they are adjusting. But might
I want to be clear, you know, tariff rates and
(02:20):
escalation is not good for the world's anonomy, and ultimately
it's not good for consuming And.
Speaker 1 (02:24):
The reason I asked the question though, if it's twenty
there are countries who are materially better. There are countries
with fifteens and nineteens, we lose. What do you do
about that that's the case.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
Yeah, that's right, Well, we will engage and I'll get
up there fairly quickly. Jermas and Grera invited me up,
but he did say come up later in the year.
He said, we've got a lot of negotiations with countries
who we're going to we have higher tariff rates twenty
thirty forty percent, and we're moving through those. I guess
we're starting to see deals announced, but there's just not
a lot of detail. I mean, you take the European
(02:54):
Union one, where you know they've said the US has
said it's fifteen percent going in and they've got zero
going to the European Union. Well, the US come out
and said no, that's not the case a deal at all.
So unfortunately for our exports, in fact it's the world exporters,
it's going to remain some uncertainty. However, there's a couple
of bright spots we're seeing in Chris de Mahn for
a lot of these products out of Southeast Asia, certainly China.
(03:17):
Our exports to the EU went up a billion dollars
last year. This is a product that we would normally
put into the EU. So you know, whilst there's uncertaintly
there in the US, and I think that's going to
go on for some time, we are thing strong demand
and certainly in other markets and now our exporters and
nimble they are adjusting, all.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
Right, Todd go well, Todd McClay, Trade Minister this morning,
Mike likely to see exports of the US subject of fifteen,
I think fifteen. I think fifteen's about it. Maybe twenty
five for steel and other metals. That's not a major
because we don't do a lot of that. Fifteen, Mike,
would be the reciprocal for the fifteen percent GST probably
the best we can expect. That would be taken into
account by the US Balance of trade. Also, of course, anyway,
(04:00):
why is New Zealand waiting? We should have negotiated our
trade deal. Well, the answer to that is, no one
in America gives the monkeys about US. I don't know
if you realize about that. I doubt that Trump knows
anything about New Zealand and beyond Lydia Co and Bob Charles,
they're not interested in cutting a deal with a country
like US specifically, and that's why they blumped us and
with the rest of the world. I mean, hell, Australia
doesn't even have a deal with.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to
news talks. It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio.
Apparently, because you can never tell with the White House
(00:01):
the rest of the world, which is us going to
get the final tariff number sometime between down four o'clock
this afternoon. Numbers have flown all week, of course, fifty
for Brazil, twenty five for India, nineteen for Indonesia, fifteen
to the EU. Todd McLay Trade Minister's with us, good morning.
Speaker 2 (00:15):
Make good morning.
Speaker 1 (00:15):
As you sit here this Friday morning, do you know
what tomorrow's number for US is?
Speaker 2 (00:20):
No, No, we don't at all. I mean, the only
real information we have is the same as everyone else
in New Zealand, what's filtering through the world's news media.
I wake up this morning and see that they may
have done something else quite punitive against Canada. So unfortunately
it's a bit of a wait and see. But indications
are that there could be fifteen percent coming across the
(00:42):
board for everybody in the world. That's a minimum. But
you know, it's an anxious time for some of our exporters.
I guess there's so much uncertainty.
Speaker 1 (00:50):
Indeed, there is also an indication it could be twenty
Do you rule that out?
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Well, well, we don't know, I was saying to some
of the media yesterday that you know, we've been engaging.
There's ongoing conversations, you know, me at my level with
my counterpart there, it's been extremely constructive. Our embassy is
talking all the time. But you know, it's not sure.
I think, you know, you think about Australia. They've got
a trade deal with America and there I understand it
exactly the same position where I guess it will unfold
(01:17):
through the media once again.
Speaker 1 (01:18):
Yeah, But the problem is that David Seymour we had
on the program earlier this week, he seemed to take
the look it is, it is what it is. They're
the government of America. They can do whatever they want.
Is that true? And if it is, how do you
debtail that with what Luxon said, and that is we
don't want to be materially worse off than anyone else,
which we may well be.
Speaker 2 (01:37):
Well, we'll only be materially worse off if others have
a lower tariff. Right, So at the moment we said
at ten percent, which is the floor. In my meeting
with jameson Grea, who's my counterpart, he said, that's the
new floor. If that floor goes up, but it's just
going to be harmful for New Zealand because tariffs are
not good. But we're no less competitive than anybody else.
(01:58):
If others are below that, ever the new rates, then
it would be hard. What we are seeing from our
exporters is in some cases more demand. They're selling more.
Many have just passed that tariff on, so it means
higher prices for the US. Others are actually saying, well,
I think Europe's a better market. There's more certainly, and
we're getting better prices, so they are adjusting. But might
I want to be clear, you know, tariff rates and
(02:20):
escalation is not good for the world's anonomy, and ultimately
it's not good for consuming And.
Speaker 1 (02:24):
The reason I asked the question though, if it's twenty
there are countries who are materially better. There are countries
with fifteens and nineteens, we lose. What do you do
about that that's the case.
Speaker 2 (02:34):
Yeah, that's right, Well, we will engage and I'll get
up there fairly quickly. Jermas and Grera invited me up,
but he did say come up later in the year.
He said, we've got a lot of negotiations with countries
who we're going to we have higher tariff rates twenty
thirty forty percent, and we're moving through those. I guess
we're starting to see deals announced, but there's just not
a lot of detail. I mean, you take the European
(02:54):
Union one, where you know they've said the US has
said it's fifteen percent going in and they've got zero
going to the European Union. Well, the US come out
and said no, that's not the case a deal at all.
So unfortunately for our exports, in fact it's the world exporters,
it's going to remain some uncertainty. However, there's a couple
of bright spots we're seeing in Chris de Mahn for
a lot of these products out of Southeast Asia, certainly China.
(03:17):
Our exports to the EU went up a billion dollars
last year. This is a product that we would normally
put into the EU. So you know, whilst there's uncertaintly
there in the US, and I think that's going to
go on for some time, we are thing strong demand
and certainly in other markets and now our exporters and
nimble they are adjusting, all.
Speaker 1 (03:37):
Right, Todd go well, Todd McClay, Trade Minister this morning,
Mike likely to see exports of the US subject of fifteen,
I think fifteen. I think fifteen's about it. Maybe twenty
five for steel and other metals. That's not a major
because we don't do a lot of that. Fifteen, Mike,
would be the reciprocal for the fifteen percent GST probably
the best we can expect. That would be taken into
account by the US Balance of trade. Also, of course, anyway,
(04:00):
why is New Zealand waiting? We should have negotiated our
trade deal. Well, the answer to that is, no one
in America gives the monkeys about US. I don't know
if you realize about that. I doubt that Trump knows
anything about New Zealand and beyond Lydia Co and Bob Charles,
they're not interested in cutting a deal with a country
like US specifically, and that's why they blumped us and
with the rest of the world. I mean, hell, Australia
doesn't even have a deal with.
Speaker 2 (04:21):
For more from the Mic Asking Breakfast, listen live to
news talks. It'd be from six am weekdays, or follow
the podcast on iHeartRadio.
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