ASPI Director Dr John Coyne discusses the importance of Northern Australia

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
We know the future of Australia's amphibious military capability. It
is in focus, that is, according to defense analyst doctor
John Coyn. Now Doctor Coin says that developing the Army's
amphibious forces isn't just about landing ships and training, It's
about building the right logistics, infrastructure and community partnerships. Now,

(00:21):
doctor John con, the director of National Security Programs at
the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, joins me on the line.
Good morning, doctor.

Speaker 2 (00:30):
Coin, Good morning Cody.

Speaker 1 (00:33):
Great to have you on the show. Now, Doctor Coin,
I know that you penned this article and argue that
Darwin could become a key hub for Australia's amphibious capability.
Talk me through what the situation is and what makes
us so strategically important right now.

Speaker 2 (00:52):
As you always know, I'm always focused on two things,
national security and Northern Australia and building economically and socially
prosperous Northern Australia. I see there's a convergence of these
two issues. So right now Defense is looking at and
certainly Army has been doing and making this change is
to become the ability to project power into the Indo

(01:15):
Pacific What that means is that the ability to move
by air and sea and land into the Indo Pacific.
Now to do that, Defense is in a process of
buying a whole range of new equipment, bigger ships and
amphibious ships than before that'll be operated by army. Now
they need to be home based somewhere. You can't operate

(01:36):
these things without a support network. And my argument is
is if you need them and you will have to
operate them, you want to have them as close to
where you need them and you want them to be
able to be supported as close and the best locations
for that are in Northern Australia.

Speaker 1 (01:51):
What's the you know, like, what's the federal government sort
of saying in this space? Where are they thinking that
they're going to base these ships? What's the plan right now?
I suppose is what I'm asking.

Speaker 2 (02:04):
Look, and I think this is part of the problem.
So you know, Defense is working app all and looking
at how to buy these capabilities bring them into service.
And that's a lengthy process. But at the moment it
looks like what we'll see is some in Brisbane, some
in townsil some in Darwin. Now the question here is
is that you know the Northern Territory, Pemlin Darwin have

(02:27):
always since World War II understood national security and have
been seeing defense as part of the community. Now Defense
needs to lean in and parochially proactively engage here. So
they provide eight percent of the GDP of the Northern
Territory as it stands at the moment, So they need
to take a proactive economic role in partnership about how

(02:48):
they're going to and where they're going to base these
new vessels.

Speaker 1 (02:52):
Now, I know that you mentioned in the article that
you wrote the risk of repeating past planning mistakes like
what havepen and in Townsville. You know that's a concern.
What lessons should defense take from previous experience do you think?

Speaker 2 (03:08):
Look, I think first and foremost that local government and
local communities aren't a box ticking activity. That they're actively
part of capacity development of logistics supply chains and not
passive players. So they need to lean forward and be
part of planning discussions about what the future of the

(03:30):
Port of Darwin looks like, what the future of Darwin
Harbor looks like, what they're actually going to do, what's
in the interests of the local community and local industry
and be active participants in.

Speaker 1 (03:41):
That in terms of you know, the building of this capability.
It's not just about the military hardware, but it's also
about those local partnerships, isn't it. I mean, how do
we sort of best engage or how does Defense make
sure that they best engage with with Northern Territory community
and industry to make this work.

Speaker 2 (04:01):
Look, you know what, there's so many things we can
say here, but a really hardcore, firm commitment to maintaining
these vessels in Darwin and to local content. So what
we want to see is very firm agreements and commitments
to using local engineering companies as an example, so that
we can actually create economic opportunities. And this is you know,

(04:23):
I'm sort of not been sitting partly because it's always
the wrong way to say this. What I'm trying to
do is make sure that if we're spending money on
defense because the national security environment says we have to,
then let's make sure we get the best economic value
in Northern Australia as well as the best national security outcomes.
And I see these are clearly aligned by having you know,

(04:45):
there's very historical reasons and lessons from this. So the
reason we're able to push the North Koreans and Chinese
back during the Korean War. Is that we're able to
get soldiers, sailors and aviators and their equipment to the front, Lawe,
I'm quicker, and we're able to repair it quicker on
the Korean peninsula. And that is why Darwin is important

(05:05):
in the Indo Pacific.

Speaker 1 (05:06):
John, there seems to have been, you know, quite a
bit more discussion I suppose about Darwin's strategic importance and
Tinder as well over the last couple of weeks. I
believe there was a full Corners report a little earlier
in the week, but even overnight this news sort of
coming through this morning that Australia's domestic spy chief warning
that there's a realistic possibility of a foreign government trying

(05:30):
to assassinate a dissident on Australian soil, saying at least
three nations are willing and capable of carrying out such
an operation. I mean, I suppose a couple of different issues. Evin,
what do you make of those comments that have sort
of come through from you know, from Australia's domestic spy chief.
First off, and I guess you and I have spoken

(05:52):
on so many occasions, you know about the Northern Territory
and our strategic importance, but are we act rate a
risk at the moment? Do you think that's why it's
sort of so heavily highlighted right now.

Speaker 2 (06:06):
Look, there's a consistency over the last four or five
years in the language that's used here in Australia by government,
by intelligence agencies, by defense, and certainly that's seen repeatedly
across the globe, which is we've entered this sort of
period of time where there's great strategic uncertainty. So you know,

(06:27):
I don't like the idea of people making predictions going
war in three years or what we do though, is
that across the board. And I'll use the words of
a version of the words used by the Director General
of ASIO. So all of the red lights flashing, so
you know, it's not just about defense, it's also about

(06:48):
counter terrorism. It's also about transnational serious organized crime. It's
also about economic security. So a very very difficult time.
I guess the thing here is people in Darwin and
the Northern Territory know this from historical perspectives, which is
this idea of targeting, So you know, there's something fundamentally

(07:11):
wrong if you start the discussion from if we stand
up to a country that's doing things not in our interest,
or if we form partnerships to make ourselves stronger, we'll
be punished for that, so we shouldn't do it. I'm
not sure that that's the right approach on this. I
think the issue here is is that you know, Northern

(07:32):
Territory four thousand kilometers away from Canberra, it is obviously
closer to the Indo Pacific, and that it has an
important role to play here for Australia's national security as
well as its economic security. And that means that if
someone would want to do us hard, you know, be
they terrorists, be they people who want to undermine our
social cohesion, or be they economic coercion, then of course

(07:56):
Darwin doesn't have Northern Territory, Northern Australia doesn't have a
special exemption from that, and more than likely proximity means
as we saw during World War Two. And I'm not
saying I want to be really clear here for this
as I'm ever going to happen, but what I am
saying is is that it is front and center of
the mind of people living in Northern Australia. Yeah.

Speaker 1 (08:18):
You know, something that always stands out for me, and
I may have said this to you before, is a
couple of years ago I interviewed Brian Winspear. He's since
passed away, but he was a bombing of Darwin survivor
who was over one hundred years old. And the day
that I interviewed him, he came into the studio and
you know, I spoke to him about what it was
like being in Darwen at that time, and he said
that they just weren't prepared, you know, they were not

(08:41):
ready for it. And as you've touched on, I'm not
saying it's going to happen again, but the last thing
you want is to be in a situation again where
no one's ready for what's coming.

Speaker 2 (08:51):
No look, And that's where you know, a lot of
the discussion and a lot of stuff I've been writing
about over the last decade on Northern Australia is as
much about national resilience, because I better if you and
I had interviewed the survivors from Cyclone Tracy, which I
have spent time with them, We've written I've written a
report on this with a colleague, and they would say
the same thing that they weren't prepared. Well. Now we're

(09:12):
in an environment where climate events are becoming more frequent
and more intense, where transnational series organized crime figures are
doing all manner of things across crime types as diverse
as child exploitation to illicit drugs, where terrorists are trying
to forward their causes globally, not just for Salafi Ghadism,
but for a range of other motivations and ideologies, where

(09:36):
the nation states are competing, where they're using economic coercion.
So we do need to be prepared and be resilient.
And for territorians, you know, this is where infrastructure becomes important.
The question remains is how in the twenty first century
we still have roads in this sort of environment, roads
that cut off a couple of times a year, and
the supermarket's empty and people are worried and you know

(09:57):
those sorts of issues.

Speaker 1 (09:59):
Yeah, so true. Well, doctor John Coyne, the director of
National Security Programs at ASBY, I always appreciate your time.
Thanks so much for having a chat with me this morning.
Thank you