Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Now Russia reportedly wants to establish a base for its
air force in Papua, which is indeed thirteen hundred kilometers
from Darwin. Australian officials investigating that situation now we know
that it was indeed reported on Tuesday or military website
Jane's reporting that Russian officials had approached Jakarta and requested
(00:20):
its aerospace forces be given access to the base less
than two hours flying time from US here in Darwin.
The Prime Minister Anthony Albanesi and the Foreign Minister Penny
Wong yesterday refusing to confirm whether Jakarta received a request
by Moscow to use Indonesia as a base for Russian warplanes.
(00:41):
We also know that the Chief Minister Leofanocchiaro spoke about
this yesterday at a press conference where she was indeed asked.
She said it highlighted the need for a stronger defense
presence in the top end, telling journalists this does highlight
the strategic importance of the northern territory and the defense
security of this nation. It is something that successive federal governments,
(01:04):
she says, have completely dropped the ball on. Now joining
us for some insight is the Australian Strategic Policy Institute's
senior analyst, Doctor Malcolm Davers. Good morning to you, Dr Davis.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
Good morning, lovely to have you.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
On the show. Now tell me what was your reaction
when this report first came to light a little earlier
in the week.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
Look, I was quite shocked. I was actually at a
conference organized by James and spoke to the author of
the report and he basically said that the Russians had
made this approach to the Indonesian government. He indicated that
the approach by the Russians was under consideration at the time,
and so I was quite concerned because if the Russian
(01:47):
did in fact establish a permanent access to the site
this airbase on Biek Island, which is in thirteen h
o clometers north of Darwin, that would give them the ability,
obviously to threaten much of northern Australia a wartime scenario,
but also to attack our key allies such as the
US and Japan across the end of Pacific region. And
these bombers that they're talking about are nuclear capable, so
(02:10):
they can carry nuclear tipped missiles. So it was a
very serious indication of a rapid deterioration now security outlook.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
Yeah. Well, and yesterday we were then in the situation,
of course where the Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi and the
Foreign Minister Penny Wong refusing to confirm whether Jakarta had
received a request by Moscow or not. But from what
you are saying, the author of that report has said
that this absolutely did happen.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
Well, I think it's highly likely that Moscow did actually
put in a formal request to the Indonesian government. Now,
what the Indonesian government are saying is that it's not
going to happen, that there's no possibility of Russia having
permanent access to that airbase. But it's important to note
that in twenty seventeen, the Russians did actually operate two
(02:58):
t U ninety five Bear bombers from that airbase as
part of an exercise.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
What what you did.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
Them twenty seventeen and that resulted in Royal Australian Air
Force Air Defense units probably at RAF Tindal, going on
heightened alert. As a result, we've also seen Indonesia drawing
closer to Russia under the current Proboa administration. They've seen
(03:25):
Indonesian Russian joint naval exercises recently, So there was that
that context which this report came out of that I
think justified some concern that the Indonesians have said it's
not going to happen. That doesn't mean that the Russians
didn't actually put in a formal.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
Request, Doctor Davis, What do you think it sees you
know about the current state of play within the world
right now? We know that we're in quite uncertain times
in a lot of ways, but is this a situation
where Russia's flexing their muscle.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
Look, Russia and China are flexing their muscle. They are
working together along with North Korea and Iran as part
of an access of authoritarian states to directly challenge liberal
democracies around the world. Ukraine, for example, is one part
of that. But also you're seeing the Chinese moving aggressively
around Taiwan and preparing for the possibility of an invasion
(04:19):
of Taiwan by China. And I think that when you
see sort of suggestions of a Russian presence in the
Indo Pacific region, that could be part of a coordinated
plan by this access of authoritarian states to challenge Western
dominance in the world. So I think we are saying
we're uncertain times. There's probably an understatement. I think we're
(04:42):
in extremely dangerous times, probably the most dangerous times we've
seen since the end of the Second World War, and
I think we need to be ready for all sorts
of possibilities in that regard.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
And so what do we need to do to make
sure that we are ready? Because I know the Chief Minister,
Our Chief Minister lif Nokiao yesterday said at a press
conference that she had not been briefed on this situation,
and she said that it does highlight the strategic importance
of the Northern Territory and the defense security of this nation.
(05:15):
She reckons it's something that successive federal governments have completely
dropped the ball on. But what needs to be happening
for us here in Northern Australia as we see this
uncertainty or these quite unprecedented times.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Look, I think if there is a crisis in the future,
possibly emerging as a result of a Chinese invasion across
the Straits to Taiwan, and you know there was to
be a tax on Australia itself as part of that,
the attacks would come in through Northern Australia. You would
see bases and facilities across the North being attacked by
(05:52):
long range missiles, and you know, these bombers potentially could
have operated out of would have could have been part
of that. I do think that, you know, whichever party
wins on May third does need to take defense much
more seriously than is currently iver party are suggesting they
will in terms of defense spending, that the proposed levels
(06:13):
of defense spending, be it by Labor or by the
Liberal National Coalition, are grossly inadequate. And I think what
we need to be doing is dramatically boosting defense spending
much more rapidly and acquiring capabilities much more rapidly. And
part of those capabilities would include hardening the North and
strengthening our ability to defend the North against these sorts
(06:35):
of threats.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
And doctor Davis, what might that look like for us?
You know, to put it in real layman's terms.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
Well, essentially, what it means is increasing the number of
base facilities up in the North that can support ADF
and Allied units and then hardening those bases against the
sorts of attacks we could see. So, you know, one
of the things that the nine twenty twenty three Defense
Strategic Reviews suggested was rapidly deploying integrated air and missile
(07:06):
defense systems. The current government has chosen to ignore that
and kick the can down the road. So what we
should be doing is building up our defensive capabilities, including
those integrated air and missile defense systems that can defend
those bases against long range missile threats that China, for example,
can conmount. And in other words, it could mean a
(07:28):
much more robust military presence across the North to be
able to defend Northern Australia. Not so much against an invasion.
I don't think that's going to happen, but in terms
of defending against long range missiles, the sorts of things
that you could see launch from Chinese naval vessels that
recently circumnavigated Australia, and our ability to detect and attack
(07:54):
an enemy force at great range and attack that force
from Northern Australia.
Speaker 1 (07:59):
So it doesn't But from what you're saying, I get
the impression it doesn't sound like we need to be alarmed,
but we need to beef up, we need to be prepared.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
We should be alarmed in the sense that things are
moving rapidly, in the sense that we don't have a
lot of time. You know, there are a lot of
key thinkers in the US, including in the US military,
are suggesting that a crisis across the Taiwan Straits could
occur in twenty twenty seven. We're in two years time,
so that's not a lot of time to prepare. So
(08:31):
in that sense, I think we should be alarmed, but
we should use that alarm to focus our policy and
our efforts towards strengthening those defense capabilities. We shouldn't panic,
We should be alarmed.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
Do you feel as of the Australian government or you know,
either side? I suppose because we are in absolute election mode.
But do you feel as though they are then, you know,
negotiating and talking with the US, you know, with the
US government in the way that we potentially.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
Need to be right now, well, I think the US
government is making it clear to us that we need
to lift our game. The US Undersectuary for Strategic Policy
and the Partner of Defense, Elbrich Colby, has made it
crystal clear to us that we need to shift defense
spending up to a floor of three percent GDP as
soon as possible. If you look at the current government's policies.
(09:25):
They're talking about two point three to three percent by
twenty thirty three, and the coalition is suggesting two point
five percent by about the same time. So neither party
have basically done what they need to do to prepare,
which is to increase that defense spending as rapidly as possible.
I think we obviously are talking to the Americans. We
(09:46):
talk to the Americans all the time, as we do
with the Japanese and the South Koreans and others. But
come the election, whichever party forms government, they will come
under intense pressure from the Trump administration to lift their
game and spend more on defense than is currently planned for.
Current defense policy documents are inadequate to deal with the
(10:08):
threat that we're facing.
Speaker 1 (10:09):
And doctor Davis, it's interesting because you know, whenever we
then have the Defense Minister on the show, whenever we
talk defense, you know, you get the impression, or they
certainly try to give off the impression that, you know,
we've got more than enough troops up here in the
top end, and we've got various different exercises happening with
different countries, and you know that they're doing enough, but
(10:30):
it really doesn't sound.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
Like we are well, you know, as I said, we
need to prepare for the right sort of threat. I
don't think anyone's seriously thinking that Northern Australia is going
to be invaded by China, but I do think we
need to be starting to think about how we defend
the North from long range vessile attacks. For example, that
you know, the Chinese have a missile capability that can
(10:53):
attack Darwin and Tindall from the South China Sea and
we have nothing to defend the game that sort of capability.
They're bringing on board hypersonic weapons that can essentially strike
at a target at very long range, at very high speed.
You know, naval capabilities, air capabilities that can all strike
at our key NOORBN bases and not just military bases,
(11:15):
but also civilian targets. If they hit our logistics, our fuel, infrastructure,
energy generation, all of that, then they can essentially leave
us with an inability to function. So it's about hardening
the North, it's about protecting and defending ourselves, and it's
about projecting power from the North into the Endopacific to
(11:39):
strike at a target or an adversary while they're still
a long way away.
Speaker 1 (11:43):
Doctor Davis, I know there'll be some people listen this morning,
listening this morning who might think, oh, this is a
bit of scare mongering. I mean, what would you say
to them?
Speaker 2 (11:51):
It's not scare mongering. I mean my job as a
strategic analyst is to think about war and to think
about future war. I do it every day. And the
way I'm seeing the world going at the moment, not
just in the Inno Pacific but also in Europe, we
are heading towards some very dangerous times. I would love
to see the world as it was, maybe back in
(12:12):
the nineteen nineties, when really there wasn't a threat of
major power war. But times have changed. We've got a
very different situation now, and we are very much in
a situation now comparable to the mid to late nineteen
thirties where we do need to be thinking about these
threats and we do need to take them seriously, because
if we don't, and these sorts of challenges happen and
(12:37):
we end up in a major war, we lose that war,
then the cost to this country will be immeasurably greater
than the cost we would pay by being ready well.
Speaker 1 (12:47):
Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior analyst doctor Malcolm Davis. I
really appreciate your time this morning, some wonderful insight and
real food for thought. I think potential particular LEO should
say as we are edge closer to the election and
I've no doubt that we're going to end up with
(13:07):
Australia's leaders in the top end at different times. So
you've given me some good things to ask about.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
Well, it's my pleasure, always happy to help.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
Thank you so much. Thanks for your time. I really
appreciate it.
Now Russia reportedly wants to establish a base for its
air force in Papua, which is indeed thirteen hundred kilometers
from Darwin. Australian officials investigating that situation now we know
that it was indeed reported on Tuesday or military website
Jane's reporting that Russian officials had approached Jakarta and requested
(00:20):
its aerospace forces be given access to the base less
than two hours flying time from US here in Darwin.
The Prime Minister Anthony Albanesi and the Foreign Minister Penny
Wong yesterday refusing to confirm whether Jakarta received a request
by Moscow to use Indonesia as a base for Russian warplanes.
(00:41):
We also know that the Chief Minister Leofanocchiaro spoke about
this yesterday at a press conference where she was indeed asked.
She said it highlighted the need for a stronger defense
presence in the top end, telling journalists this does highlight
the strategic importance of the northern territory and the defense
security of this nation. It is something that successive federal governments,
(01:04):
she says, have completely dropped the ball on. Now joining
us for some insight is the Australian Strategic Policy Institute's
senior analyst, Doctor Malcolm Davers. Good morning to you, Dr Davis.
Speaker 2 (01:18):
Good morning, lovely to have you.
Speaker 1 (01:20):
On the show. Now tell me what was your reaction
when this report first came to light a little earlier
in the week.
Speaker 2 (01:26):
Look, I was quite shocked. I was actually at a
conference organized by James and spoke to the author of
the report and he basically said that the Russians had
made this approach to the Indonesian government. He indicated that
the approach by the Russians was under consideration at the time,
and so I was quite concerned because if the Russian
(01:47):
did in fact establish a permanent access to the site
this airbase on Biek Island, which is in thirteen h
o clometers north of Darwin, that would give them the ability,
obviously to threaten much of northern Australia a wartime scenario,
but also to attack our key allies such as the
US and Japan across the end of Pacific region. And
these bombers that they're talking about are nuclear capable, so
(02:10):
they can carry nuclear tipped missiles. So it was a
very serious indication of a rapid deterioration now security outlook.
Speaker 1 (02:18):
Yeah. Well, and yesterday we were then in the situation,
of course where the Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi and the
Foreign Minister Penny Wong refusing to confirm whether Jakarta had
received a request by Moscow or not. But from what
you are saying, the author of that report has said
that this absolutely did happen.
Speaker 2 (02:36):
Well, I think it's highly likely that Moscow did actually
put in a formal request to the Indonesian government. Now,
what the Indonesian government are saying is that it's not
going to happen, that there's no possibility of Russia having
permanent access to that airbase. But it's important to note
that in twenty seventeen, the Russians did actually operate two
(02:58):
t U ninety five Bear bombers from that airbase as
part of an exercise.
Speaker 1 (03:03):
What what you did.
Speaker 2 (03:05):
Them twenty seventeen and that resulted in Royal Australian Air
Force Air Defense units probably at RAF Tindal, going on
heightened alert. As a result, we've also seen Indonesia drawing
closer to Russia under the current Proboa administration. They've seen
(03:25):
Indonesian Russian joint naval exercises recently, So there was that
that context which this report came out of that I
think justified some concern that the Indonesians have said it's
not going to happen. That doesn't mean that the Russians
didn't actually put in a formal.
Speaker 1 (03:42):
Request, Doctor Davis, What do you think it sees you
know about the current state of play within the world
right now? We know that we're in quite uncertain times
in a lot of ways, but is this a situation
where Russia's flexing their muscle.
Speaker 2 (03:56):
Look, Russia and China are flexing their muscle. They are
working together along with North Korea and Iran as part
of an access of authoritarian states to directly challenge liberal
democracies around the world. Ukraine, for example, is one part
of that. But also you're seeing the Chinese moving aggressively
around Taiwan and preparing for the possibility of an invasion
(04:19):
of Taiwan by China. And I think that when you
see sort of suggestions of a Russian presence in the
Indo Pacific region, that could be part of a coordinated
plan by this access of authoritarian states to challenge Western
dominance in the world. So I think we are saying
we're uncertain times. There's probably an understatement. I think we're
(04:42):
in extremely dangerous times, probably the most dangerous times we've
seen since the end of the Second World War, and
I think we need to be ready for all sorts
of possibilities in that regard.
Speaker 1 (04:53):
And so what do we need to do to make
sure that we are ready? Because I know the Chief Minister,
Our Chief Minister lif Nokiao yesterday said at a press
conference that she had not been briefed on this situation,
and she said that it does highlight the strategic importance
of the Northern Territory and the defense security of this nation.
(05:15):
She reckons it's something that successive federal governments have completely
dropped the ball on. But what needs to be happening
for us here in Northern Australia as we see this
uncertainty or these quite unprecedented times.
Speaker 2 (05:30):
Look, I think if there is a crisis in the future,
possibly emerging as a result of a Chinese invasion across
the Straits to Taiwan, and you know there was to
be a tax on Australia itself as part of that,
the attacks would come in through Northern Australia. You would
see bases and facilities across the North being attacked by
(05:52):
long range missiles, and you know, these bombers potentially could
have operated out of would have could have been part
of that. I do think that, you know, whichever party
wins on May third does need to take defense much
more seriously than is currently iver party are suggesting they
will in terms of defense spending, that the proposed levels
(06:13):
of defense spending, be it by Labor or by the
Liberal National Coalition, are grossly inadequate. And I think what
we need to be doing is dramatically boosting defense spending
much more rapidly and acquiring capabilities much more rapidly. And
part of those capabilities would include hardening the North and
strengthening our ability to defend the North against these sorts
(06:35):
of threats.
Speaker 1 (06:37):
And doctor Davis, what might that look like for us?
You know, to put it in real layman's terms.
Speaker 2 (06:44):
Well, essentially, what it means is increasing the number of
base facilities up in the North that can support ADF
and Allied units and then hardening those bases against the
sorts of attacks we could see. So, you know, one
of the things that the nine twenty twenty three Defense
Strategic Reviews suggested was rapidly deploying integrated air and missile
(07:06):
defense systems. The current government has chosen to ignore that
and kick the can down the road. So what we
should be doing is building up our defensive capabilities, including
those integrated air and missile defense systems that can defend
those bases against long range missile threats that China, for example,
can conmount. And in other words, it could mean a
(07:28):
much more robust military presence across the North to be
able to defend Northern Australia. Not so much against an invasion.
I don't think that's going to happen, but in terms
of defending against long range missiles, the sorts of things
that you could see launch from Chinese naval vessels that
recently circumnavigated Australia, and our ability to detect and attack
(07:54):
an enemy force at great range and attack that force
from Northern Australia.
Speaker 1 (07:59):
So it doesn't But from what you're saying, I get
the impression it doesn't sound like we need to be alarmed,
but we need to beef up, we need to be prepared.
Speaker 2 (08:09):
We should be alarmed in the sense that things are
moving rapidly, in the sense that we don't have a
lot of time. You know, there are a lot of
key thinkers in the US, including in the US military,
are suggesting that a crisis across the Taiwan Straits could
occur in twenty twenty seven. We're in two years time,
so that's not a lot of time to prepare. So
(08:31):
in that sense, I think we should be alarmed, but
we should use that alarm to focus our policy and
our efforts towards strengthening those defense capabilities. We shouldn't panic,
We should be alarmed.
Speaker 1 (08:44):
Do you feel as of the Australian government or you know,
either side? I suppose because we are in absolute election mode.
But do you feel as though they are then, you know,
negotiating and talking with the US, you know, with the
US government in the way that we potentially.
Speaker 2 (09:01):
Need to be right now, well, I think the US
government is making it clear to us that we need
to lift our game. The US Undersectuary for Strategic Policy
and the Partner of Defense, Elbrich Colby, has made it
crystal clear to us that we need to shift defense
spending up to a floor of three percent GDP as
soon as possible. If you look at the current government's policies.
(09:25):
They're talking about two point three to three percent by
twenty thirty three, and the coalition is suggesting two point
five percent by about the same time. So neither party
have basically done what they need to do to prepare,
which is to increase that defense spending as rapidly as possible.
I think we obviously are talking to the Americans. We
(09:46):
talk to the Americans all the time, as we do
with the Japanese and the South Koreans and others. But
come the election, whichever party forms government, they will come
under intense pressure from the Trump administration to lift their
game and spend more on defense than is currently planned for.
Current defense policy documents are inadequate to deal with the
(10:08):
threat that we're facing.
Speaker 1 (10:09):
And doctor Davis, it's interesting because you know, whenever we
then have the Defense Minister on the show, whenever we
talk defense, you know, you get the impression, or they
certainly try to give off the impression that, you know,
we've got more than enough troops up here in the
top end, and we've got various different exercises happening with
different countries, and you know that they're doing enough, but
(10:30):
it really doesn't sound.
Speaker 2 (10:31):
Like we are well, you know, as I said, we
need to prepare for the right sort of threat. I
don't think anyone's seriously thinking that Northern Australia is going
to be invaded by China, but I do think we
need to be starting to think about how we defend
the North from long range vessile attacks. For example, that
you know, the Chinese have a missile capability that can
(10:53):
attack Darwin and Tindall from the South China Sea and
we have nothing to defend the game that sort of capability.
They're bringing on board hypersonic weapons that can essentially strike
at a target at very long range, at very high speed.
You know, naval capabilities, air capabilities that can all strike
at our key NOORBN bases and not just military bases,
(11:15):
but also civilian targets. If they hit our logistics, our fuel, infrastructure,
energy generation, all of that, then they can essentially leave
us with an inability to function. So it's about hardening
the North, it's about protecting and defending ourselves, and it's
about projecting power from the North into the Endopacific to
(11:39):
strike at a target or an adversary while they're still
a long way away.
Speaker 1 (11:43):
Doctor Davis, I know there'll be some people listen this morning,
listening this morning who might think, oh, this is a
bit of scare mongering. I mean, what would you say
to them?
Speaker 2 (11:51):
It's not scare mongering. I mean my job as a
strategic analyst is to think about war and to think
about future war. I do it every day. And the
way I'm seeing the world going at the moment, not
just in the Inno Pacific but also in Europe, we
are heading towards some very dangerous times. I would love
to see the world as it was, maybe back in
(12:12):
the nineteen nineties, when really there wasn't a threat of
major power war. But times have changed. We've got a
very different situation now, and we are very much in
a situation now comparable to the mid to late nineteen
thirties where we do need to be thinking about these
threats and we do need to take them seriously, because
if we don't, and these sorts of challenges happen and
(12:37):
we end up in a major war, we lose that war,
then the cost to this country will be immeasurably greater
than the cost we would pay by being ready well.
Speaker 1 (12:47):
Australian Strategic Policy Institute senior analyst doctor Malcolm Davis. I
really appreciate your time this morning, some wonderful insight and
real food for thought. I think potential particular LEO should
say as we are edge closer to the election and
I've no doubt that we're going to end up with
(13:07):
Australia's leaders in the top end at different times. So
you've given me some good things to ask about.
Speaker 2 (13:13):
Well, it's my pleasure, always happy to help.
Speaker 1 (13:15):
Thank you so much. Thanks for your time. I really
appreciate it.
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