Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Well, we know the Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi is set
to tell Donald Trump that Australia is doing its part
on defense spending as he prepares for his first meeting
with the United States President. The Prime Minister expected to
meet with the President Donald Trump tomorrow, as I understand it,
on the sidelines of the g seventh Summers in Canada,
amid growing uncertainty about the future of the UCAS Pact.
(00:24):
Now we know it is also being reported this morning
that US officials say President Donald Trump rejected an Israeli
plan to kill Israel's supreme leader as the Israel Iran
conflict continues. Now there is a lot to cover off.
Joining us on the show right now, as the Australian
Strategic Policy Institute's Senior analyst in Defense strategy, doctor Malcolm Davis,
(00:49):
Good morning to you, doctor Davis.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
Good morning.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
It's good to have you on the show. And I'll
tell you what. There is a lot happening around the
world at the moment. We know the Prime story is
set to have his first meeting with Donald Trump. What
do you think is going to be on the agenda?
Speaker 2 (01:07):
Well, clearly, I think UCUS is the number one priority
but also trade and tariffs I think are the other
issues that really need to be addressed. But in terms
of aucus, I think the Prime Minister will be trying
to make the case that that Australia is an important
partner in terms of aucus. I think what Trump will
(01:27):
be coming back to Albo and saying is, well, you
need to do more to spend more money on defense.
I think that's the problem is that that Alba's going
in there claiming, well, you know, we're currently spending two
point oh five percent of GDP on defense and we'll
go up to two point three three percent by twenty
thirty three. The Trump administration, quite rightly will say that's
(01:50):
not enough and it's not soon enough. So I think
that Albo will come under significant pressure from the Trump
administration to do more in terms of defense. If he
resists that pressure, then that could undermine the outcome of
the Orchest review and potentially leave us in a very
difficult situation. If the Trump administration wouldn't walk away from
(02:12):
UCAST but would potentially delay the delivery of the first
Virginia submarine.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
What could that mean then for Australia. Because I know
a lot of people listening you know, we hear these
discussions happening, but we don't really know what it's all
going to mean. Then, you know, if it doesn't go ahead.
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Well, look, if for some reason, the Trump administration decided
to delay the delivery of the first of between three
and five the Junior class submarines in the twenty thirties,
that would leave us with a significant capability gap in
terms of undersea warfare. We have six Columns class submarines
at the moment, but they are rather elderly now. They
(02:51):
are being upgraded in a process known as LOT, a
life of type enhancement, but LOT probably wouldn't keep them
viable capability into the twenty forties. So we would then
suffer from a significant capability gap if those Virginia class
submarines were not available as per the optimal pathway.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
So do you think we could wind up in a
situation over the next twenty four hours or so when
Anthony Albanesi does meet with the US President where we
could see some further announcements around defense spending, because there
does seem to be a lot riding.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
On these I would hope, so I mean, I would
hope that the Prime Minister would recognize that the government
does need to do more on defense spending, that an
aspiration of two point three three percent by twenty thirty
three is too little, too late, particularly when the threats
that we're facing are not out into the twenty thirties.
(03:47):
They're here and now. We are in the most challenging
times since the end of the Second World War, and
the government does need to be doing more now to
actually respond to the threats that are here and now,
rather than assuming that nothing bad happens this decade and
that we somehow have still ten years of strategic warning
(04:08):
time before a major threat happens.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
And then how do you think the Northern Territory or
North Australia potentially comes into play when we speak about
those threats.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
Look, I think the Northern Territory and Northern Australia is
the key strategic and operational area for Australia. It needs
to be invested in by the government in terms of
defense facilities. Those defense facilities need to be hardened and
protected from the sorts of threats we are facing. And
let's be clear, we are talking about long range Chinese
(04:40):
missile capabilities that could strike at northern Australian defense bases
from the South China Sea and destroy those bases. So
there needs to be, for example, an investment in integrated
era and missile defense capabilities that needs to be accelerated.
There needs to be hardening of the existing facilities to
make them more resilient, and there needs to be better infrastructuring.
(05:02):
Journal So I think that the government needs to think
seriously about how it's going to fight from the north,
how it's going to project military power from the North
well forward, from Australia's maritime and their approaches. It's no
good simply being able to defend the immediate offshore area.
You have to project at hemispheric ranges and the government
(05:24):
needs to do more in terms of spending money on
defense to achieve this.
Speaker 1 (05:29):
Malcolm. We also know over the course of the weekend,
obviously we saw the situation with Iran and Israel really escalate.
What does that mean more broadly, I guess when you
look at the uncertainty around the world currently.
Speaker 2 (05:44):
I think it just reinforces the message that the government
is saying itself, which is that we're in the most
challenging strategic environment since the end of the Second World war.
We now have a major war occurring in Europe with
the Russian invasion of your Krane. We have a major
war occurring in the Middue East now between Iran and
ira and Israel. And we have the conflict obviously going
(06:08):
on in Gaza as well. We have China building up
its military capabilities in a manner that is sort of
unforeseen and basically highly threatening to the region. We have
North Korea building up rapid large numbers of nuclear weapons.
We have Russia threatening NATO. All of these things are
happening simultaneously. I would argue that we are in a
(06:32):
pre war period akin to the late nineteen thirties, and
yes that the actors have changed and the technology has
moved on.
Speaker 1 (06:40):
But.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
The objectives of our adversaries are still the same, and
so we need to start preparing for the possibility of
a much larger war occurring within this decade.
Speaker 1 (06:51):
I mean, like, I know that what Donald Trump is
obviously talking about when you talk about Australia's defense spend,
and you know, we talk about the impact that that
would then have on Australia's budget in terms of, you know,
how that money could be invested into age care, and
other things. But I mean, Malcolm, when you look at
what you've just said to us, and we look more
broadly at what's happening around the world, it sounds like
(07:13):
it's pretty important that additional money is in fact spent
when it comes to defense for Australia.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
Look, the single most important responsibility and obligation of any
government is the defense of the nation. That goes above trade,
It goes above cost of living, it goes above housing,
it goes above education, and so on and so forth.
If the government does not spend sufficiently on defense, and
we end up losing the next war, then the cost
(07:44):
to the nation will be far greater than what would
have been the case that we actually had spent that
money in the first place, because potentially, in that scenario,
if we're talking about China, we lose our status as
a liberal democratic state. We become essentially dominated by an
aggressive Chinese hedgeomonic state that dominates the region. And in
(08:06):
twenty twenty they sent us a list of fourteen demands
with basically to bring the relationship back on track. If
we'd signed those fourteen demands, then Australia would not be
a free level democracy today. I put it to you
that if Australia and its allies, including the United States,
were to lose the next war over the Taiwan Straits,
(08:28):
for example, then the Chinese will be coming to us
with many such lists and we would then be paying
a much higher cost in more intangible terms than just money.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
So I mean it sounds as though Dr Davis said
today or tomorrow I should say when the Prime Minister
is meeting with the US President, I mean, any ability
I guess that we've got to negotiate around things like
trade tariffs or trade in tariffs is going to be
It's going to be sort of dependent, I suppose on
those discussions around defense.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
Look, I trade and the traff's issue is very important,
don't get me wrong, yo, but the Prime Minister does
need to focus on that as well. But I think
the whole issue of defense and national security is the
most important issue here, and in particular ensuring that we
demonstrate to the Americans that we are prepared to pull
our weight and that means increasing defense spending. I mean
(09:24):
Peter Haggsef, US Secretary of Defense, made it very clear
that he wanted Australia to go up to three point
five percent of GDP on defense as soon as possible,
and I think HEGXF is correct, that's what we need
to be doing. And as soon as possible doesn't mean
in ten years time. As soon as possible means one
to two years. Okay, So therefore the Prime Minister needs
(09:46):
to recognize that they do need to do more. They
do need to spend more on defense in anticipation of
real threats that are coming up fast, and ensure that
we're working with the Americans. ORCUS is a big part
of that. Obviously, need to make sure that the Americans
stay on board UCUST, but we need to do our
bet as well. We can't freeload off the Americans.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
I was actually going to say to you as well,
doctor Davis. I mean, what do you say to those
who might be listening this morning, thinking, you know, how
do you negotiate with somebody like Donald Trump who can
change his mind relatively quickly.
Speaker 2 (10:19):
Well, that's I mean, that's another challenge for us in
the sense that we do have a more unpredictable transactional
present in the Oval Office. That adds to the strategic uncertainty,
in the strategic risk that we're facing. If we had
someone you know, like a Biden figure or a Kamala
Harrison might be easier, but we have Trump, and so
(10:41):
therefore we have to work harder with the Trump administration
to essentially, as Trump would say, do a deal. And
I think that it's going to be an ongoing challenge
for us. We can't just throw up our hands and
say we'll give up because Trump's a difficult character to
work with. We have to work with that present whilst
he's in office and his administration, and we simply don't
(11:04):
have a choice in that.
Speaker 1 (11:05):
With that, well, I'll tell you what, doctor Malcolm Davis.
I always appreciate your time. I appreciate your ability to
break things down a little bit more simply for us
to understand as well. Thank you very much for having
a chat with me today. Okay, thank you, thank you,
Thanks so much.
Well, we know the Prime Minister Anthony Albanezi is set
to tell Donald Trump that Australia is doing its part
on defense spending as he prepares for his first meeting
with the United States President. The Prime Minister expected to
meet with the President Donald Trump tomorrow, as I understand it,
on the sidelines of the g seventh Summers in Canada,
amid growing uncertainty about the future of the UCAS Pact.
(00:24):
Now we know it is also being reported this morning
that US officials say President Donald Trump rejected an Israeli
plan to kill Israel's supreme leader as the Israel Iran
conflict continues. Now there is a lot to cover off.
Joining us on the show right now, as the Australian
Strategic Policy Institute's Senior analyst in Defense strategy, doctor Malcolm Davis,
(00:49):
Good morning to you, doctor Davis.
Speaker 2 (00:51):
Good morning.
Speaker 1 (00:52):
It's good to have you on the show. And I'll
tell you what. There is a lot happening around the
world at the moment. We know the Prime story is
set to have his first meeting with Donald Trump. What
do you think is going to be on the agenda?
Speaker 2 (01:07):
Well, clearly, I think UCUS is the number one priority
but also trade and tariffs I think are the other
issues that really need to be addressed. But in terms
of aucus, I think the Prime Minister will be trying
to make the case that that Australia is an important
partner in terms of aucus. I think what Trump will
(01:27):
be coming back to Albo and saying is, well, you
need to do more to spend more money on defense.
I think that's the problem is that that Alba's going
in there claiming, well, you know, we're currently spending two
point oh five percent of GDP on defense and we'll
go up to two point three three percent by twenty
thirty three. The Trump administration, quite rightly will say that's
(01:50):
not enough and it's not soon enough. So I think
that Albo will come under significant pressure from the Trump
administration to do more in terms of defense. If he
resists that pressure, then that could undermine the outcome of
the Orchest review and potentially leave us in a very
difficult situation. If the Trump administration wouldn't walk away from
(02:12):
UCAST but would potentially delay the delivery of the first
Virginia submarine.
Speaker 1 (02:17):
What could that mean then for Australia. Because I know
a lot of people listening you know, we hear these
discussions happening, but we don't really know what it's all
going to mean. Then, you know, if it doesn't go ahead.
Speaker 2 (02:29):
Well, look, if for some reason, the Trump administration decided
to delay the delivery of the first of between three
and five the Junior class submarines in the twenty thirties,
that would leave us with a significant capability gap in
terms of undersea warfare. We have six Columns class submarines
at the moment, but they are rather elderly now. They
(02:51):
are being upgraded in a process known as LOT, a
life of type enhancement, but LOT probably wouldn't keep them
viable capability into the twenty forties. So we would then
suffer from a significant capability gap if those Virginia class
submarines were not available as per the optimal pathway.
Speaker 1 (03:12):
So do you think we could wind up in a
situation over the next twenty four hours or so when
Anthony Albanesi does meet with the US President where we
could see some further announcements around defense spending, because there
does seem to be a lot riding.
Speaker 2 (03:26):
On these I would hope, so I mean, I would
hope that the Prime Minister would recognize that the government
does need to do more on defense spending, that an
aspiration of two point three three percent by twenty thirty
three is too little, too late, particularly when the threats
that we're facing are not out into the twenty thirties.
(03:47):
They're here and now. We are in the most challenging
times since the end of the Second World War, and
the government does need to be doing more now to
actually respond to the threats that are here and now,
rather than assuming that nothing bad happens this decade and
that we somehow have still ten years of strategic warning
(04:08):
time before a major threat happens.
Speaker 1 (04:10):
And then how do you think the Northern Territory or
North Australia potentially comes into play when we speak about
those threats.
Speaker 2 (04:18):
Look, I think the Northern Territory and Northern Australia is
the key strategic and operational area for Australia. It needs
to be invested in by the government in terms of
defense facilities. Those defense facilities need to be hardened and
protected from the sorts of threats we are facing. And
let's be clear, we are talking about long range Chinese
(04:40):
missile capabilities that could strike at northern Australian defense bases
from the South China Sea and destroy those bases. So
there needs to be, for example, an investment in integrated
era and missile defense capabilities that needs to be accelerated.
There needs to be hardening of the existing facilities to
make them more resilient, and there needs to be better infrastructuring.
(05:02):
Journal So I think that the government needs to think
seriously about how it's going to fight from the north,
how it's going to project military power from the North
well forward, from Australia's maritime and their approaches. It's no
good simply being able to defend the immediate offshore area.
You have to project at hemispheric ranges and the government
(05:24):
needs to do more in terms of spending money on
defense to achieve this.
Speaker 1 (05:29):
Malcolm. We also know over the course of the weekend,
obviously we saw the situation with Iran and Israel really escalate.
What does that mean more broadly, I guess when you
look at the uncertainty around the world currently.
Speaker 2 (05:44):
I think it just reinforces the message that the government
is saying itself, which is that we're in the most
challenging strategic environment since the end of the Second World war.
We now have a major war occurring in Europe with
the Russian invasion of your Krane. We have a major
war occurring in the Middue East now between Iran and
ira and Israel. And we have the conflict obviously going
(06:08):
on in Gaza as well. We have China building up
its military capabilities in a manner that is sort of
unforeseen and basically highly threatening to the region. We have
North Korea building up rapid large numbers of nuclear weapons.
We have Russia threatening NATO. All of these things are
happening simultaneously. I would argue that we are in a
(06:32):
pre war period akin to the late nineteen thirties, and
yes that the actors have changed and the technology has
moved on.
Speaker 1 (06:40):
But.
Speaker 2 (06:42):
The objectives of our adversaries are still the same, and
so we need to start preparing for the possibility of
a much larger war occurring within this decade.
Speaker 1 (06:51):
I mean, like, I know that what Donald Trump is
obviously talking about when you talk about Australia's defense spend,
and you know, we talk about the impact that that
would then have on Australia's budget in terms of, you know,
how that money could be invested into age care, and
other things. But I mean, Malcolm, when you look at
what you've just said to us, and we look more
broadly at what's happening around the world, it sounds like
(07:13):
it's pretty important that additional money is in fact spent
when it comes to defense for Australia.
Speaker 2 (07:21):
Look, the single most important responsibility and obligation of any
government is the defense of the nation. That goes above trade,
It goes above cost of living, it goes above housing,
it goes above education, and so on and so forth.
If the government does not spend sufficiently on defense, and
we end up losing the next war, then the cost
(07:44):
to the nation will be far greater than what would
have been the case that we actually had spent that
money in the first place, because potentially, in that scenario,
if we're talking about China, we lose our status as
a liberal democratic state. We become essentially dominated by an
aggressive Chinese hedgeomonic state that dominates the region. And in
(08:06):
twenty twenty they sent us a list of fourteen demands
with basically to bring the relationship back on track. If
we'd signed those fourteen demands, then Australia would not be
a free level democracy today. I put it to you
that if Australia and its allies, including the United States,
were to lose the next war over the Taiwan Straits,
(08:28):
for example, then the Chinese will be coming to us
with many such lists and we would then be paying
a much higher cost in more intangible terms than just money.
Speaker 1 (08:41):
So I mean it sounds as though Dr Davis said
today or tomorrow I should say when the Prime Minister
is meeting with the US President, I mean, any ability
I guess that we've got to negotiate around things like
trade tariffs or trade in tariffs is going to be
It's going to be sort of dependent, I suppose on
those discussions around defense.
Speaker 2 (09:03):
Look, I trade and the traff's issue is very important,
don't get me wrong, yo, but the Prime Minister does
need to focus on that as well. But I think
the whole issue of defense and national security is the
most important issue here, and in particular ensuring that we
demonstrate to the Americans that we are prepared to pull
our weight and that means increasing defense spending. I mean
(09:24):
Peter Haggsef, US Secretary of Defense, made it very clear
that he wanted Australia to go up to three point
five percent of GDP on defense as soon as possible,
and I think HEGXF is correct, that's what we need
to be doing. And as soon as possible doesn't mean
in ten years time. As soon as possible means one
to two years. Okay, So therefore the Prime Minister needs
(09:46):
to recognize that they do need to do more. They
do need to spend more on defense in anticipation of
real threats that are coming up fast, and ensure that
we're working with the Americans. ORCUS is a big part
of that. Obviously, need to make sure that the Americans
stay on board UCUST, but we need to do our
bet as well. We can't freeload off the Americans.
Speaker 1 (10:07):
I was actually going to say to you as well,
doctor Davis. I mean, what do you say to those
who might be listening this morning, thinking, you know, how
do you negotiate with somebody like Donald Trump who can
change his mind relatively quickly.
Speaker 2 (10:19):
Well, that's I mean, that's another challenge for us in
the sense that we do have a more unpredictable transactional
present in the Oval Office. That adds to the strategic uncertainty,
in the strategic risk that we're facing. If we had
someone you know, like a Biden figure or a Kamala
Harrison might be easier, but we have Trump, and so
(10:41):
therefore we have to work harder with the Trump administration
to essentially, as Trump would say, do a deal. And
I think that it's going to be an ongoing challenge
for us. We can't just throw up our hands and
say we'll give up because Trump's a difficult character to
work with. We have to work with that present whilst
he's in office and his administration, and we simply don't
(11:04):
have a choice in that.
Speaker 1 (11:05):
With that, well, I'll tell you what, doctor Malcolm Davis.
I always appreciate your time. I appreciate your ability to
break things down a little bit more simply for us
to understand as well. Thank you very much for having
a chat with me today. Okay, thank you, thank you,
Thanks so much.
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