November 20, 2025 • 8 mins
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Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Joining me on the line is another woman who is
always organized and prepared, and that is Jess Lingard from
the Bureau of Meteorology. Good morning, Jess, Good morning, Jess.
I tell you what interesting interesting times talk is through
the latest advice already.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
So we have had an update to the tropical cyclone
track map about what half an hour forty minutes ago.
Now still a Category one tropical cyclone, but we have
seen the wins are starting to speed back up again,
starting to get a little stronger around the center. Earlier
this morning, the four the track map had it with
(00:40):
one hundred kilometer in our wins. It now has one
hundred and twenty kilometer in our wins. So it is
starting to recover from that wind shear that we were talking. Oh,
actually no, we didn't talk yesterday, but so we yes
say it. So I've had so many interviews. I do apologize.
(01:00):
Yesterday started to weaken and that was because it had
some wind sheer issues. So in the broader sort of
environment of the tropical cyclone had some different wind speeds
and different wind strengths and directions at the top and
the bottom of the cyclone. And basically cyclones like to
be standing straight upright. That allows them to spin really
(01:22):
fast and to get really organized around the eye. When
they get a bit of a lean on them, they
start to sort of topple over and fall apart. We
also saw overnight it ingesting some dry air into the system,
which is a bit like taking a sip of water
and it going down the wrong pipe. It starts sort
of coughing and spluttering and weakening, but today getting its
act together again and we are starting to see it
(01:44):
strengthening back up. As I say, we are starting to
see those winds at the center getting a little stronger,
and I do suggest that perhaps on the next issue
of the track map later this afternoon, that we will
see it has strengthened back up to a category two
system before we see it impact the Cobourg Peninsula. Now
we do have a tropical cyclone warning zone that covers
(02:06):
the entire Coburg Peninsula, the Tiwi Islands, the Darwin City
and all the way down to Dundee Beach, and that
means that we could see Gaele force winds within the
next twenty four hours. We then have a watch zone
that extends from Dundee Beach all the way down to
wad Air, which means that gale force winds could be
experienced within the next twenty four to forty eight hours,
(02:29):
So just that sort of twenty four hour offset there
at the moment, expecting the system to continue to move
in a southwesterly direction, likely to skirt the bottom of
the Tiwi Islands, remaining north of the Darwin City. However,
we do have several model outcomes that suggest we could
see a slightly more northerly track taking it through more
(02:52):
central parts of the Tiwi Islands. We also see models
that take it a little bit further south, so maybe
a more direct impact for Darwin's city. It is really
important over the next twenty four to thirty six hours
that we do keep a really close eye on this
track map, not focusing too much on that black line
around down the middle, but those pink and red rings,
(03:14):
because those are the rings that are going to tell
you about the sort of winds that you could experience,
especially on your location.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
So talk us through those rings and what kind of
winds we are going to experience with them, because there'll
be people that are looking at this cyclone tracking map.
Now there'll be some that are going to look at
it throughout the afternoon and they'll remember what you're saying.
So you know, with the pink and red rings, if
we stay at a category two, what are we expecting.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
So the pink rings highlight where we're going to see
those gae fourth winds, So that sort of salmon colored ring,
that's why we're seeing Gaye fourth winds. That's winds up
to around one hundred kilometers an hour. As we start
to see that red ring emerge. When we move up
to a category two system, that's where we start to
experience those destructive winds. So that's wind gus in excess
(04:03):
of one hundred and twenty five kilometers an hour up
to around one hundred and sixty kilometers an hour, and
we can see that later sort of as it moves
past Darwin into the team or sea, we also get
a darker red ring, which is the very destructive wins
a category three system possible then, and that's when we're
(04:23):
starting to look at wins sort of exceeding one hundred
and seventy kilometers an hour for Darwin itself, we are
at risk of those destructive winds, so that is wins
between one hundred and twenty and one hundred and sixty
ish kilometers an hour, so you know it is going
to be a blustery evening, and it is really important
tomorrow night, when we're sort of starting to feel the
(04:45):
brunt of those winds as they start to come through,
that we are keeping ourselves safe, making sure you've got
your cyclone kit, you're listening to the radio, you're listening
to those emergency broadcast events throughout the night, keeping yourself safe.
We can see this system. Oh sorry, yeah, oh you're right,
you keep going. I was just going to say, we
(05:07):
can see this tropical cyclone really nice and clearly on
the radar, so we can see the eye and we
can see those bands of rainfall wrapping around it as well,
so we can watch that rainfall as it starts to
move closer to the city, which will give you a
good idea of sort of when we're going to start
to see conditions deteriorating throughout sort of tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
Jess, when do you think that we will realistically start
to see that real change in weather, Because obviously, if
you look outside now, it's overcast, but you know the
weather that we're experiencing, it certainly you know it doesn't
feel like theres are cyclone looming.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
No, definitely not. So two things we need to think
about here is well, I mean, according to the track
map that has been issued now, we're going to start
to see those winds really starting to ramp up tomorrow morning.
But that's really heavily dependent on how fast this system moves.
If it starts to speed up or even slow down,
(06:01):
the timing of those winds is going to change a
little bit. But really from tomorrow morning onwards, sort of
as we wake up in the morning, things are going
to slowly get steadily worse throughout the day. The rains
are going to increase, the winds are going to get stronger.
The winds are going to be coming down from the
northeast for the most part, or sort of an easterly
initially perhaps, so we're going to start to feel those,
(06:24):
and then as it moves past sort of during Saturday evening,
we will slowly start to feel a clearing trend into
Saturday night. So hopefully we can all get a little
bit of sleep.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
Jess, are we expecting from what we've heard a little earlier,
we are expecting quite a large amount of rain as well.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
Yes, we are so. At the moment, in the last
twenty four hours, we've had nearly one hundred and ninety
millimeters at Croker Island, and that's because the system has
been doing that you turn off the coast, So the
Cobo Peninsula has been pretty much sitting underneath the cloud
bands of this system. But similar falls could be expected
in the Darwin region as well as the system draws
(07:08):
past tomorrow, so it is not out of the question
to see something between sort of maybe one hundred and
fifty and three hundred millimeters of rainfall.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
Goodness may so plenty of plenty of wet weather coming
our way.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Yes, indeed, now tomorrow is the most important day, so
please just make sure that you are following the bureau's
four back map. Try not to get too sidetracked by
looking at other third party websites that only display a
single model output. YEP, the Bureaus track maps to take
all of the model outcomes into account. We weigh the
(07:44):
models up against each other and use our years of
experience to put forward the most likely forecast for this scenario.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
Good advice, Jessling. God always appreciate your time. Thank you
very much for having a chat with us this morning.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
You're very welcome. Katie, say thank you, thanks so much.
Joining me on the line is another woman who is
always organized and prepared, and that is Jess Lingard from
the Bureau of Meteorology. Good morning, Jess, Good morning, Jess.
I tell you what interesting interesting times talk is through
the latest advice already.
Speaker 2 (00:19):
So we have had an update to the tropical cyclone
track map about what half an hour forty minutes ago.
Now still a Category one tropical cyclone, but we have
seen the wins are starting to speed back up again,
starting to get a little stronger around the center. Earlier
this morning, the four the track map had it with
(00:40):
one hundred kilometer in our wins. It now has one
hundred and twenty kilometer in our wins. So it is
starting to recover from that wind shear that we were talking. Oh,
actually no, we didn't talk yesterday, but so we yes
say it. So I've had so many interviews. I do apologize.
(01:00):
Yesterday started to weaken and that was because it had
some wind sheer issues. So in the broader sort of
environment of the tropical cyclone had some different wind speeds
and different wind strengths and directions at the top and
the bottom of the cyclone. And basically cyclones like to
be standing straight upright. That allows them to spin really
(01:22):
fast and to get really organized around the eye. When
they get a bit of a lean on them, they
start to sort of topple over and fall apart. We
also saw overnight it ingesting some dry air into the system,
which is a bit like taking a sip of water
and it going down the wrong pipe. It starts sort
of coughing and spluttering and weakening, but today getting its
act together again and we are starting to see it
(01:44):
strengthening back up. As I say, we are starting to
see those winds at the center getting a little stronger,
and I do suggest that perhaps on the next issue
of the track map later this afternoon, that we will
see it has strengthened back up to a category two
system before we see it impact the Cobourg Peninsula. Now
we do have a tropical cyclone warning zone that covers
(02:06):
the entire Coburg Peninsula, the Tiwi Islands, the Darwin City
and all the way down to Dundee Beach, and that
means that we could see Gaele force winds within the
next twenty four hours. We then have a watch zone
that extends from Dundee Beach all the way down to
wad Air, which means that gale force winds could be
experienced within the next twenty four to forty eight hours,
(02:29):
So just that sort of twenty four hour offset there
at the moment, expecting the system to continue to move
in a southwesterly direction, likely to skirt the bottom of
the Tiwi Islands, remaining north of the Darwin City. However,
we do have several model outcomes that suggest we could
see a slightly more northerly track taking it through more
(02:52):
central parts of the Tiwi Islands. We also see models
that take it a little bit further south, so maybe
a more direct impact for Darwin's city. It is really
important over the next twenty four to thirty six hours
that we do keep a really close eye on this
track map, not focusing too much on that black line
around down the middle, but those pink and red rings,
(03:14):
because those are the rings that are going to tell
you about the sort of winds that you could experience,
especially on your location.
Speaker 1 (03:21):
So talk us through those rings and what kind of
winds we are going to experience with them, because there'll
be people that are looking at this cyclone tracking map.
Now there'll be some that are going to look at
it throughout the afternoon and they'll remember what you're saying.
So you know, with the pink and red rings, if
we stay at a category two, what are we expecting.
Speaker 2 (03:43):
So the pink rings highlight where we're going to see
those gae fourth winds, So that sort of salmon colored ring,
that's why we're seeing Gaye fourth winds. That's winds up
to around one hundred kilometers an hour. As we start
to see that red ring emerge. When we move up
to a category two system, that's where we start to
experience those destructive winds. So that's wind gus in excess
(04:03):
of one hundred and twenty five kilometers an hour up
to around one hundred and sixty kilometers an hour, and
we can see that later sort of as it moves
past Darwin into the team or sea, we also get
a darker red ring, which is the very destructive wins
a category three system possible then, and that's when we're
(04:23):
starting to look at wins sort of exceeding one hundred
and seventy kilometers an hour for Darwin itself, we are
at risk of those destructive winds, so that is wins
between one hundred and twenty and one hundred and sixty
ish kilometers an hour, so you know it is going
to be a blustery evening, and it is really important
tomorrow night, when we're sort of starting to feel the
(04:45):
brunt of those winds as they start to come through,
that we are keeping ourselves safe, making sure you've got
your cyclone kit, you're listening to the radio, you're listening
to those emergency broadcast events throughout the night, keeping yourself safe.
We can see this system. Oh sorry, yeah, oh you're right,
you keep going. I was just going to say, we
(05:07):
can see this tropical cyclone really nice and clearly on
the radar, so we can see the eye and we
can see those bands of rainfall wrapping around it as well,
so we can watch that rainfall as it starts to
move closer to the city, which will give you a
good idea of sort of when we're going to start
to see conditions deteriorating throughout sort of tomorrow.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
Jess, when do you think that we will realistically start
to see that real change in weather, Because obviously, if
you look outside now, it's overcast, but you know the
weather that we're experiencing, it certainly you know it doesn't
feel like theres are cyclone looming.
Speaker 2 (05:41):
No, definitely not. So two things we need to think
about here is well, I mean, according to the track
map that has been issued now, we're going to start
to see those winds really starting to ramp up tomorrow morning.
But that's really heavily dependent on how fast this system moves.
If it starts to speed up or even slow down,
(06:01):
the timing of those winds is going to change a
little bit. But really from tomorrow morning onwards, sort of
as we wake up in the morning, things are going
to slowly get steadily worse throughout the day. The rains
are going to increase, the winds are going to get stronger.
The winds are going to be coming down from the
northeast for the most part, or sort of an easterly
initially perhaps, so we're going to start to feel those,
(06:24):
and then as it moves past sort of during Saturday evening,
we will slowly start to feel a clearing trend into
Saturday night. So hopefully we can all get a little
bit of sleep.
Speaker 1 (06:36):
Jess, are we expecting from what we've heard a little earlier,
we are expecting quite a large amount of rain as well.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
Yes, we are so. At the moment, in the last
twenty four hours, we've had nearly one hundred and ninety
millimeters at Croker Island, and that's because the system has
been doing that you turn off the coast, So the
Cobo Peninsula has been pretty much sitting underneath the cloud
bands of this system. But similar falls could be expected
in the Darwin region as well as the system draws
(07:08):
past tomorrow, so it is not out of the question
to see something between sort of maybe one hundred and
fifty and three hundred millimeters of rainfall.
Speaker 1 (07:16):
Goodness may so plenty of plenty of wet weather coming
our way.
Speaker 2 (07:22):
Yes, indeed, now tomorrow is the most important day, so
please just make sure that you are following the bureau's
four back map. Try not to get too sidetracked by
looking at other third party websites that only display a
single model output. YEP, the Bureaus track maps to take
all of the model outcomes into account. We weigh the
(07:44):
models up against each other and use our years of
experience to put forward the most likely forecast for this scenario.
Speaker 1 (07:50):
Good advice, Jessling. God always appreciate your time. Thank you
very much for having a chat with us this morning.
Speaker 2 (07:58):
You're very welcome. Katie, say thank you, thanks so much.
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