November 19, 2025 • 8 mins
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
We've got the Bureau of Meteorology on the line to
give us a bit of an update on what's going
on with tropical Cyclone Feena, and joining me is Senior
Meteorologist Miriam Bradbury. Good morning to.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
You, Miriam, good morning, Hey you going yeah really well?
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Thanks so much for your time. Now, what is the
latest when it comes to tropical cyclone Fena.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
So, the latest information for tropical Cyclone Fena, according to
the track map, the watch and warning products that were
issued a couple of hours ago, is that the system
is still a category to tropical cyclone. It's still sitting
well to the north of the Northern Territory coastline, over
four hundred k's to the northeast of Darwin, so basically
it's still some distance offshore. We can really see that
(00:42):
in that there's a lot of sort of shower and
thunderstorm activity wrapping around this system. But if you look
at the rainfall that we've seen across the top end
in the last twenty four hours or so, it's quite minimal.
So we're getting some of that cloud, but we're not
yet seeing the wet and windy weather impact that's likely
to develop over the next few days, and that's why
we've got these tropical cyclone watch and tropical cyclone warning
(01:03):
areas current now. The tropical cyclone warning that's the area
likely to be affected first that we could see gale
force winds developing in the next twenty four hours, most
likely through the day today, and then starting to really
pick up through tomorrow. That extends from Cape Don on
the Coburg Peninsula all the way across to man and Grida,
and it does include Mingling, Minja, lang Sorry and war
(01:26):
are We. But then our watch area, which indicates gale
force winds developing in the next forty eight hours, so
maybe not until late in the week going into the weekend,
that extends further. It covers the entirety of the Tiwei
Islands and pushes down towards Darwin as well. So basically
it's that northwestern corner that's going to see the really
strong winds, the rain and also some very rough seas
(01:50):
really picking up over the next few days.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
Now, Mariam, in terms of this tracking map, I guess
we're all waiting to see at this point in time
what sort of happens when that cyclone does a bit
of a U turn. Is that what we're waiting for.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Yeah, it is. That's when it's expected to start nearing
the coast again. So at the moment, it's really slow moving.
So from one issue of this track map to the next,
there's not a huge change in its position. But through
the next few hours, possibly going into this afternoon, we
are expecting to see that little bit of a U
turn happening and the direction of this cyclone starts shifting
(02:25):
towards the south, then southwest. So that's why it's going
to take it all the way back down across the
Coburg Marine Park and towards the Tiwei Islands as well,
really hooking in in that southwesterly direction.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
And I mean, is there's still potential here that once
it's sort of you know, once it turns, you know
that the path that it takes may change to some degree.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
Yeah, that absolutely is. Unfortunately, it's always the way with cyclones.
I'm sure we're all well versed in that fact. There's
always changes in the environment in the whether that can
affect how the cyclone grows, strengthens, and where it tracks.
The tropical cyclone map that the Bureau issues is always
going to represent the best estimate that's made by our
(03:09):
tropical cyclone team, but you may not if you're looking
at the track map yourself. So there is a forecast range,
which is a gray circle that goes around the track,
and really what that indicates is the spread of areas
where potentially the center of this cyclone could move. So
there is potential that it could move a more direct
suddenly path straight towards that northwest coast of the top End,
(03:33):
or it could take a more westerly path, holding further
out over the water. However, at this stage, the most
likely path does take it across that sort of Coburg
Peninsula Coburg Marine Park and then through the Van Diemen Gulf,
but likely clipping the southern coast of the Tiwei Islands too.
That does hold it to the north of Darwin. But
in that forecast range where possibly it could move, there
(03:54):
is a potential that it could shift further south and
hit Darwen more directly. That's just not the most likely
scenario at this point in time.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
Miriam. How strong could those winds and gales? I mean,
what are we expecting?
Speaker 2 (04:07):
Yeah, Look, the strongest winds are always going to be
closest to the core of the tropical cyclone, so to
the center of that system. Now, with a category two
tropical cyclone, the mean wind speeds are in that sort
of ninety to one hundred and fifteen kilometer an hour zone,
so that's already very strong. That's definitely strong enough to
bring down you know, trees, tree branches, power lines, cause
(04:28):
damage to your property, your home, your car, potentially if
you get in the way of a stray tree or so.
But the maximum gusts that we can see out of
a system of this strength are even higher one hundred
and twenty five to one hundred and sixty five kilometers
an hour. Now, again those top wind gusts are most
likely close to the core of the system, so it
really will depend on where the system tracks, but that's
(04:51):
the potential it's bringing. So at this point in time,
at tropical cyclone advice that we've issued that's attached to
the tropical cyclone's warning and cyclone track map, it does
suggest that within that tropical cyclone watching warning area, we're
most likely to see the damaging gusts up to one
hundred and twenty k's an hour, but we could start
seeing the destructive gusts up to one hundred and fifty
(05:14):
five k's an hour developing along the coast between Capeton
and war are we from tomorrow morning? So at this stage, yeah,
it is looking like we'll see the strongest winds from
around Friday.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
Miriam, can you talk us through then? You know you
just said there those strong wind gusts starting around Friday
for residents of Darwin and the Greater Darwin region, and
we obviously broadcast far and wide, but that's predominantly where
our listenership is. When will we start to experience that
deteriorating weather.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
Yeah, so for Darwin and the Greater Darwin region, we
are likely to start seeing those wind gus up to
one hundred and twenty k's an hour in the next
forty eight hours. Now at this point it's the later
part of that forty eight hour period, so most likely
not until the weekend. It's the weekend that we're going
to see the system drawing closer, So it's the weekend
that we're going to see the impacts really ramping up
(06:05):
as well. So most residents, we'll noticings start to get
a little bit windy from Saturday morning, possibly even from
Friday night, but the peak wind gusts are really expected
from around the middle of the day on Saturday to
around the middle of the day on Sunday, peaking in
that overnight period. Now, of course, those timeframes could change
if the system slows down or speeds up at all,
(06:27):
but at this point in time, the strongest wing us
for Darwin are most likely late Saturday going into early Sunday.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
Miriam. In terms of how long it could take to
sort of to pass over, have we got any sort
of estimation at this point or is it still too
early to tell.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
Look, there's always going to be an element of uncertainty,
unfortunately with cyclones. But again the best estimate that we have,
which is reflecting our track map, does have the system
continuing to move southwest through Sunday and into early next week.
Now there is a potential through that early part of
next week that it will make another sort of coastal
crossing on the Kimberley Coast in Western Australia, but it
(07:08):
is likely to continue on that trajectory whether or not
it actually moves towards the coast. So look for the
Darwin region where we're likely to see the winds easing
back through Sunday sort of late morning into the afternoon.
We may still see some elevated seas and increase rainfall
through the remainder of the weekend, and by the time
(07:29):
we get to next week, the forecast really settles down
quite a bit. Still looking showery, still looking potentially thunderstormy
or so, but the worst of the cyclone impacts will
be at this point confined to the weekend.
Speaker 1 (07:43):
Now a couple of quick ones. Are we expecting it
to stay at a category two?
Speaker 2 (07:47):
Yes, that's the most likely category that it will hold.
There's a very slight chance it could push up to
category three, but more likely it will just remain at
Cat two.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
And Miriam, given that you said those gusts in forty
eight hours, we expect a warning for Darwin potentially tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
Yeah, that's the potential that we're likely to see. As
the system draws nearer, will have a better idea of
exactly when Darwen might be affected. So look, the message
to all communities, not just in Darwin, but across you know,
the top end in general is just keep an eye
on the bureaus track maps. They're updated every three hours
at this point in time, so we'll get another one
in about an hour. Yeah, and that'll give us the
(08:24):
earliest indication of when we might see those winds picking up.
But you're right, it should be in the next twenty
four hours that we might see Darwin go into the
tropical cyclone warning area.
Speaker 1 (08:34):
All right, well, we're expecting that update in about an hour.
I think we're catching up with either you or someone else,
Miriam in the next hour or so to find out
how it's tracking. Then
We've got the Bureau of Meteorology on the line to
give us a bit of an update on what's going
on with tropical Cyclone Feena, and joining me is Senior
Meteorologist Miriam Bradbury. Good morning to.
Speaker 2 (00:12):
You, Miriam, good morning, Hey you going yeah really well?
Speaker 1 (00:15):
Thanks so much for your time. Now, what is the
latest when it comes to tropical cyclone Fena.
Speaker 2 (00:21):
So, the latest information for tropical Cyclone Fena, according to
the track map, the watch and warning products that were
issued a couple of hours ago, is that the system
is still a category to tropical cyclone. It's still sitting
well to the north of the Northern Territory coastline, over
four hundred k's to the northeast of Darwin, so basically
it's still some distance offshore. We can really see that
(00:42):
in that there's a lot of sort of shower and
thunderstorm activity wrapping around this system. But if you look
at the rainfall that we've seen across the top end
in the last twenty four hours or so, it's quite minimal.
So we're getting some of that cloud, but we're not
yet seeing the wet and windy weather impact that's likely
to develop over the next few days, and that's why
we've got these tropical cyclone watch and tropical cyclone warning
(01:03):
areas current now. The tropical cyclone warning that's the area
likely to be affected first that we could see gale
force winds developing in the next twenty four hours, most
likely through the day today, and then starting to really
pick up through tomorrow. That extends from Cape Don on
the Coburg Peninsula all the way across to man and Grida,
and it does include Mingling, Minja, lang Sorry and war
(01:26):
are We. But then our watch area, which indicates gale
force winds developing in the next forty eight hours, so
maybe not until late in the week going into the weekend,
that extends further. It covers the entirety of the Tiwei
Islands and pushes down towards Darwin as well. So basically
it's that northwestern corner that's going to see the really
strong winds, the rain and also some very rough seas
(01:50):
really picking up over the next few days.
Speaker 1 (01:52):
Now, Mariam, in terms of this tracking map, I guess
we're all waiting to see at this point in time
what sort of happens when that cyclone does a bit
of a U turn. Is that what we're waiting for.
Speaker 2 (02:04):
Yeah, it is. That's when it's expected to start nearing
the coast again. So at the moment, it's really slow moving.
So from one issue of this track map to the next,
there's not a huge change in its position. But through
the next few hours, possibly going into this afternoon, we
are expecting to see that little bit of a U
turn happening and the direction of this cyclone starts shifting
(02:25):
towards the south, then southwest. So that's why it's going
to take it all the way back down across the
Coburg Marine Park and towards the Tiwei Islands as well,
really hooking in in that southwesterly direction.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
And I mean, is there's still potential here that once
it's sort of you know, once it turns, you know
that the path that it takes may change to some degree.
Speaker 2 (02:48):
Yeah, that absolutely is. Unfortunately, it's always the way with cyclones.
I'm sure we're all well versed in that fact. There's
always changes in the environment in the whether that can
affect how the cyclone grows, strengthens, and where it tracks.
The tropical cyclone map that the Bureau issues is always
going to represent the best estimate that's made by our
(03:09):
tropical cyclone team, but you may not if you're looking
at the track map yourself. So there is a forecast range,
which is a gray circle that goes around the track,
and really what that indicates is the spread of areas
where potentially the center of this cyclone could move. So
there is potential that it could move a more direct
suddenly path straight towards that northwest coast of the top End,
(03:33):
or it could take a more westerly path, holding further
out over the water. However, at this stage, the most
likely path does take it across that sort of Coburg
Peninsula Coburg Marine Park and then through the Van Diemen Gulf,
but likely clipping the southern coast of the Tiwei Islands too.
That does hold it to the north of Darwin. But
in that forecast range where possibly it could move, there
(03:54):
is a potential that it could shift further south and
hit Darwen more directly. That's just not the most likely
scenario at this point in time.
Speaker 1 (04:02):
Miriam. How strong could those winds and gales? I mean,
what are we expecting?
Speaker 2 (04:07):
Yeah, Look, the strongest winds are always going to be
closest to the core of the tropical cyclone, so to
the center of that system. Now, with a category two
tropical cyclone, the mean wind speeds are in that sort
of ninety to one hundred and fifteen kilometer an hour zone,
so that's already very strong. That's definitely strong enough to
bring down you know, trees, tree branches, power lines, cause
(04:28):
damage to your property, your home, your car, potentially if
you get in the way of a stray tree or so.
But the maximum gusts that we can see out of
a system of this strength are even higher one hundred
and twenty five to one hundred and sixty five kilometers
an hour. Now, again those top wind gusts are most
likely close to the core of the system, so it
really will depend on where the system tracks, but that's
(04:51):
the potential it's bringing. So at this point in time,
at tropical cyclone advice that we've issued that's attached to
the tropical cyclone's warning and cyclone track map, it does
suggest that within that tropical cyclone watching warning area, we're
most likely to see the damaging gusts up to one
hundred and twenty k's an hour, but we could start
seeing the destructive gusts up to one hundred and fifty
(05:14):
five k's an hour developing along the coast between Capeton
and war are we from tomorrow morning? So at this stage, yeah,
it is looking like we'll see the strongest winds from
around Friday.
Speaker 1 (05:25):
Miriam, can you talk us through then? You know you
just said there those strong wind gusts starting around Friday
for residents of Darwin and the Greater Darwin region, and
we obviously broadcast far and wide, but that's predominantly where
our listenership is. When will we start to experience that
deteriorating weather.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
Yeah, so for Darwin and the Greater Darwin region, we
are likely to start seeing those wind gus up to
one hundred and twenty k's an hour in the next
forty eight hours. Now at this point it's the later
part of that forty eight hour period, so most likely
not until the weekend. It's the weekend that we're going
to see the system drawing closer, So it's the weekend
that we're going to see the impacts really ramping up
(06:05):
as well. So most residents, we'll noticings start to get
a little bit windy from Saturday morning, possibly even from
Friday night, but the peak wind gusts are really expected
from around the middle of the day on Saturday to
around the middle of the day on Sunday, peaking in
that overnight period. Now, of course, those timeframes could change
if the system slows down or speeds up at all,
(06:27):
but at this point in time, the strongest wing us
for Darwin are most likely late Saturday going into early Sunday.
Speaker 1 (06:34):
Miriam. In terms of how long it could take to
sort of to pass over, have we got any sort
of estimation at this point or is it still too
early to tell.
Speaker 2 (06:45):
Look, there's always going to be an element of uncertainty,
unfortunately with cyclones. But again the best estimate that we have,
which is reflecting our track map, does have the system
continuing to move southwest through Sunday and into early next week.
Now there is a potential through that early part of
next week that it will make another sort of coastal
crossing on the Kimberley Coast in Western Australia, but it
(07:08):
is likely to continue on that trajectory whether or not
it actually moves towards the coast. So look for the
Darwin region where we're likely to see the winds easing
back through Sunday sort of late morning into the afternoon.
We may still see some elevated seas and increase rainfall
through the remainder of the weekend, and by the time
(07:29):
we get to next week, the forecast really settles down
quite a bit. Still looking showery, still looking potentially thunderstormy
or so, but the worst of the cyclone impacts will
be at this point confined to the weekend.
Speaker 1 (07:43):
Now a couple of quick ones. Are we expecting it
to stay at a category two?
Speaker 2 (07:47):
Yes, that's the most likely category that it will hold.
There's a very slight chance it could push up to
category three, but more likely it will just remain at
Cat two.
Speaker 1 (07:56):
And Miriam, given that you said those gusts in forty
eight hours, we expect a warning for Darwin potentially tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (08:04):
Yeah, that's the potential that we're likely to see. As
the system draws nearer, will have a better idea of
exactly when Darwen might be affected. So look, the message
to all communities, not just in Darwin, but across you know,
the top end in general is just keep an eye
on the bureaus track maps. They're updated every three hours
at this point in time, so we'll get another one
in about an hour. Yeah, and that'll give us the
(08:24):
earliest indication of when we might see those winds picking up.
But you're right, it should be in the next twenty
four hours that we might see Darwin go into the
tropical cyclone warning area.
Speaker 1 (08:34):
All right, well, we're expecting that update in about an hour.
I think we're catching up with either you or someone else,
Miriam in the next hour or so to find out
how it's tracking. Then
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