November 19, 2025 • 7 mins
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
That the Bureau of Meteorology has indeed issued their latest
advice when it comes to tropical cyclone Fena, and I'm
pleased to say that joining me on the line again
from the Bureau of Meteorology. We discussed this cyclone a
little earlier with her today, Senior Meteorologist Miriam Bradby Bradbury,
Good morning to.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
You, Miriam. Good morning. How are you going?
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Yeah, really good, Thank you again for your time, Miriam.
What is the latest with the tracking map?
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Yeah, so the latest with the track map. Look, the
main story is that the area is concerned for our
tropical cyclone watching. Tropical cyclone warning haven't changed, so they
remain the same. What has changed is, I guess the
track of the cyclone has sped up slightly, so it's
still a Category two system at this point in time,
(00:51):
still located around four hundred k to the northeast of Darwin,
so still well offshore. But where previously we were looking
at actually this system reaching that Cobourg Peninsula on Saturday morning,
it's now possible that we could see it reaching those
areas as early as Friday night. So that means all
(01:12):
of our time frames has increased a little bit, and
this is typical of cyclones, particularly when they're still well
out over the water, they may speed up slow down slightly,
and that changes all of our time frames for when
the cyclone may reach certain areas. So at this point
in time, it is expected to move south through today,
then gradually start trending south westwards through the later part
(01:34):
of today into tomorrow. It'll continue southwest towards that far
northwestern most part of the Northern Territory's top end during
tomorrow and as I said, most likely crossing that Coburg
Marine Park area in that northwest coastal area tomorrow night,
so Friday night, it'll then progress across the Van Demon Gulf,
(01:56):
now likely to pass between the top End coast and
the Tea Islands through Saturday evening, so it's coming very
very close to Darwin, but is still expected to cross
through to the north. So broadly speaking, our impacts haven't
changed too much. Our warning area still extends from Cape
(02:17):
Don up to Madda and Greta and includes the Kobak Peninsula,
Minjelang and war are We. Our tropical cyclone watch area
includes the Tewei Islands as far south as Darwin. And
easter gun Billanya, But I guess it's really the timing
of when we might start seeing the worst of the
impact that has increased by around maybe six to twelve
hours or so.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
Okay, so just well just tell us exactly when we
are sort of expecting to experience that in Darwin at
this point in time.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
Yeah, So for Darwin, previously we were suggesting it might
be through Saturday afternoon and during Saturday night. Now we're
likely to see those winds possibly freshening from as early
as Friday night, but the damaging winger some more likely
through Saturday morning, with the peak of the winds through
Saturday afternoon into the early evening. So it's shifted sooner
(03:08):
by about six hours. This means by the time we
get to Sunday, we're going to be more quickly on
that easing trend, which is good news. But it does
mean that we may need to be aware of that
windy weather starting earlier on Saturday. So in preparation, you know,
just check things in your yard, loose items, you know,
lawn chairs, that kind of thing that can get blown
around quite a bit and cause damage by these strong winds.
(03:30):
Just make sure that you've checked your yard, your property
and prepared yourself ahead of this system moving through on Saturday.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
And Mariam, are we still expecting it, you know, to
be that category too? Are we concerned that it's moving
more quickly so it may be stronger at this point?
Speaker 2 (03:47):
Yeah, Look, the expectation at this point in time is
still that it will remain at that category two system.
As I said earlier, with these sort of systems, there's
always that potential if it reaches the right environment, that
it could intensify further. It certainly is spending a lot
of time over water, and as I'm sure we're all aware,
in those warm waters that really help to act as
(04:08):
fuel for a developing tropical cyclone. But it's kind of
wheezing its way between these islands and these land areas,
and that can decrease its potential to grow more towards
a severe category three tropical cyclone. Basically, what I'm saying
is there is still a chance, but most likely it
will remain a category too intensity.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
And Mariam, when are we expecting the next piece of advice?
I know everybody's at the point where we're keeping an
eye on the view of meteorology site it's in our
favorite sense for sure.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
Yeah. Absolutely. Look at this stage we're still in three
hourly updates, so the next update would then be due
at if I can do my time calculations correct one
pm Central Standard time. We're not really going to go
to hourly updates until the system draws a lot closer
to the coast, So that's likely to be sometime tomorrow.
(05:02):
Whether it's tomorrow morning or tomorrow afternoon will depend on
how quickly this system moves. But look, the little rule
of thumb is if you can see the eye of
the cyclone on the radar coverage, then you'll know we're
likely going into hourly updates for those products there. But
at the moment it's still every three hours. The system
is still some way away, but it's giving us time,
(05:22):
I guess, to prepare and get ready for its crossing. Well,
it's passing through over the next few days.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
BERM Can I ask obviously a lot of discussion about
the wind us and you know, and what we're expecting
in that area, But what about when it comes to
that rainfall, Like, are we expecting this to be a
real sort of you know, heavy rain sort of situation.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
Yeah, there's definitely the potential for heavy falls increasing over
the next few days. Today it's not looking too bad.
We are going to see scattered showers sort of pushing
back across the top End coast, but it'll really be
through Friday that we start to see that risk of
heavy rain increasing. So it's going to hit that far
northwestern top End coast around the Coburg Marine Park Coburg
Peninsula through the morning and then push southwards. So through
(06:08):
Friday afternoon we're likely to see the rain starting to
pick up across the Darwin area and that will only
continue into Saturday as that system draws nearer and crosses through.
So those of you who have been keeping an eye
on the Darwin forecast will note that our rainfall range
is currently suggesting twenty five to one hundred and ten millimeters.
It's quite a big range, I know, but what it's
(06:28):
what it's really trying to do is capture the possibility
that the system could be slower than expected, or it
could be faster than expected, but it is bringing the
potential for that heavy rainfall which can lead to flash flooding.
So for the northern coast of the Top End from
tomorrow as when we'll see those heavy falls really ramp up,
But for Darwin it's more likely late tomorrow going into Saturday,
(06:50):
that we'll see those heavy falls ramping up there.
Speaker 1 (06:52):
Well, Miriam Bradbury, really appreciate your time this morning, and
who knows, we'll probably talk again tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (06:58):
At this rate flee we will. Thanks so much for
your time.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
I really appreciate it.
That the Bureau of Meteorology has indeed issued their latest
advice when it comes to tropical cyclone Fena, and I'm
pleased to say that joining me on the line again
from the Bureau of Meteorology. We discussed this cyclone a
little earlier with her today, Senior Meteorologist Miriam Bradby Bradbury,
Good morning to.
Speaker 2 (00:20):
You, Miriam. Good morning. How are you going?
Speaker 1 (00:22):
Yeah, really good, Thank you again for your time, Miriam.
What is the latest with the tracking map?
Speaker 2 (00:30):
Yeah, so the latest with the track map. Look, the
main story is that the area is concerned for our
tropical cyclone watching. Tropical cyclone warning haven't changed, so they
remain the same. What has changed is, I guess the
track of the cyclone has sped up slightly, so it's
still a Category two system at this point in time,
(00:51):
still located around four hundred k to the northeast of Darwin,
so still well offshore. But where previously we were looking
at actually this system reaching that Cobourg Peninsula on Saturday morning,
it's now possible that we could see it reaching those
areas as early as Friday night. So that means all
(01:12):
of our time frames has increased a little bit, and
this is typical of cyclones, particularly when they're still well
out over the water, they may speed up slow down slightly,
and that changes all of our time frames for when
the cyclone may reach certain areas. So at this point
in time, it is expected to move south through today,
then gradually start trending south westwards through the later part
(01:34):
of today into tomorrow. It'll continue southwest towards that far
northwestern most part of the Northern Territory's top end during
tomorrow and as I said, most likely crossing that Coburg
Marine Park area in that northwest coastal area tomorrow night,
so Friday night, it'll then progress across the Van Demon Gulf,
(01:56):
now likely to pass between the top End coast and
the Tea Islands through Saturday evening, so it's coming very
very close to Darwin, but is still expected to cross
through to the north. So broadly speaking, our impacts haven't
changed too much. Our warning area still extends from Cape
(02:17):
Don up to Madda and Greta and includes the Kobak Peninsula,
Minjelang and war are We. Our tropical cyclone watch area
includes the Tewei Islands as far south as Darwin. And
easter gun Billanya, But I guess it's really the timing
of when we might start seeing the worst of the
impact that has increased by around maybe six to twelve
hours or so.
Speaker 1 (02:38):
Okay, so just well just tell us exactly when we
are sort of expecting to experience that in Darwin at
this point in time.
Speaker 2 (02:47):
Yeah, So for Darwin, previously we were suggesting it might
be through Saturday afternoon and during Saturday night. Now we're
likely to see those winds possibly freshening from as early
as Friday night, but the damaging winger some more likely
through Saturday morning, with the peak of the winds through
Saturday afternoon into the early evening. So it's shifted sooner
(03:08):
by about six hours. This means by the time we
get to Sunday, we're going to be more quickly on
that easing trend, which is good news. But it does
mean that we may need to be aware of that
windy weather starting earlier on Saturday. So in preparation, you know,
just check things in your yard, loose items, you know,
lawn chairs, that kind of thing that can get blown
around quite a bit and cause damage by these strong winds.
(03:30):
Just make sure that you've checked your yard, your property
and prepared yourself ahead of this system moving through on Saturday.
Speaker 1 (03:36):
And Mariam, are we still expecting it, you know, to
be that category too? Are we concerned that it's moving
more quickly so it may be stronger at this point?
Speaker 2 (03:47):
Yeah, Look, the expectation at this point in time is
still that it will remain at that category two system.
As I said earlier, with these sort of systems, there's
always that potential if it reaches the right environment, that
it could intensify further. It certainly is spending a lot
of time over water, and as I'm sure we're all aware,
in those warm waters that really help to act as
(04:08):
fuel for a developing tropical cyclone. But it's kind of
wheezing its way between these islands and these land areas,
and that can decrease its potential to grow more towards
a severe category three tropical cyclone. Basically, what I'm saying
is there is still a chance, but most likely it
will remain a category too intensity.
Speaker 1 (04:30):
And Mariam, when are we expecting the next piece of advice?
I know everybody's at the point where we're keeping an
eye on the view of meteorology site it's in our
favorite sense for sure.
Speaker 2 (04:40):
Yeah. Absolutely. Look at this stage we're still in three
hourly updates, so the next update would then be due
at if I can do my time calculations correct one
pm Central Standard time. We're not really going to go
to hourly updates until the system draws a lot closer
to the coast, So that's likely to be sometime tomorrow.
(05:02):
Whether it's tomorrow morning or tomorrow afternoon will depend on
how quickly this system moves. But look, the little rule
of thumb is if you can see the eye of
the cyclone on the radar coverage, then you'll know we're
likely going into hourly updates for those products there. But
at the moment it's still every three hours. The system
is still some way away, but it's giving us time,
(05:22):
I guess, to prepare and get ready for its crossing. Well,
it's passing through over the next few days.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
BERM Can I ask obviously a lot of discussion about
the wind us and you know, and what we're expecting
in that area, But what about when it comes to
that rainfall, Like, are we expecting this to be a
real sort of you know, heavy rain sort of situation.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
Yeah, there's definitely the potential for heavy falls increasing over
the next few days. Today it's not looking too bad.
We are going to see scattered showers sort of pushing
back across the top End coast, but it'll really be
through Friday that we start to see that risk of
heavy rain increasing. So it's going to hit that far
northwestern top End coast around the Coburg Marine Park Coburg
Peninsula through the morning and then push southwards. So through
(06:08):
Friday afternoon we're likely to see the rain starting to
pick up across the Darwin area and that will only
continue into Saturday as that system draws nearer and crosses through.
So those of you who have been keeping an eye
on the Darwin forecast will note that our rainfall range
is currently suggesting twenty five to one hundred and ten millimeters.
It's quite a big range, I know, but what it's
(06:28):
what it's really trying to do is capture the possibility
that the system could be slower than expected, or it
could be faster than expected, but it is bringing the
potential for that heavy rainfall which can lead to flash flooding.
So for the northern coast of the Top End from
tomorrow as when we'll see those heavy falls really ramp up,
But for Darwin it's more likely late tomorrow going into Saturday,
(06:50):
that we'll see those heavy falls ramping up there.
Speaker 1 (06:52):
Well, Miriam Bradbury, really appreciate your time this morning, and
who knows, we'll probably talk again tomorrow.
Speaker 2 (06:58):
At this rate flee we will. Thanks so much for
your time.
Speaker 1 (07:02):
I really appreciate it.
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