Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
We know. The latest starter from core Logic shows the
national home values have held steady, while values in regional
areas rose in January, reaching record new heights. The home
value index in Darwin rose zero point six percent, with
growth also recorded in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, while Melbourne
and the Act and Sydney endured declines. Now joining us
(00:22):
on the line to break this down further is core
Logics Research director Tim Lawless. Good morning, Tim, good morning,
lovely to have you on the show. Now, Tim, what
does the latest report show for home values in Darwin.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
Well, they've actually on a bit of a run at
the moment. We've seen a month of growth up point
six percent, but also the last quarter, so the three
months inning January, we've seen about a one point seven
percent rise. That's pretty decent for a market like Darwin
that's gone through quite a soft period of housing values.
And over the past twelve months the market's up about
(00:58):
one percent or point nine percent, So in dollar terms,
that means we've seen the market left in value by
around about four four hundred dollars over the past twelve months.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
Are there certain parts of the Greater Darwin area that
saw the highest growth.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
Yeah. Absolutely. The results are actually pretty diverse. If you
get out to markets like say Lichfield, Palmerston, the outer
fringes of Darwin itself, that's generally where we're seeing most
of the growth, and mostly in infra houses rather than
units as well. So Lychfield's up about two point four
percent in the past twelve months, Palmeston about two point
(01:34):
two percent. These are also markets that are I suppose
quite predominantly low density. There's not a lot of apartments
in those areas. But once you get into the Darwin
inner city, that's where you can start to see some weakness,
mostly being pulled down by the apartment sector, which is
still doing it pretty tough. In the last twelve months
we've seen apartment values across Darwin, it's still drifted a
(01:55):
little bit lower. You know, they are down point one percent,
so essentially flat over the past year.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Now, tell me what's the situation. I guess for some
of I mean, like you've said Litchfield there in Palmerston,
But for some of the more regional parts of the Northern.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
Territory, Yeah, it's really different. So geet to Catherine or
Alice Springs and these markets are still extraordinarily weak. We're
seeing ongoing declines monthly, quarterly, annually. In fact, Elae Springs
is one of the few markets that's actually down in
value over the past five years, so it hasn't really
(02:29):
seen much of that pandemic upswing we've seen across a
lot of other regional markets. So the last twelve months,
Alice Springs is down in value by about four percent,
Catherine down by nearly ten percent, of that market down
nine point five percent, so quite different once you get
out into those there's more rural and remote areas well,
And you do.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
Wonder I suppose for us here locally. You know, places
like Alice and also Catherine have really grappled in the
last couple of years with some of those issues of crime.
So I don't know whether that kind of thing has
an impact, but I guess from a practical sense, for
some of us locally, we probably would say that it
does well.
Speaker 2 (03:06):
It probably doesn't help. Put it that way, Housing prices
always come back to supply and demand, and the demand
site factors are clearly quite weak in those markets, and
supply the listing numbers are generally quite high. So obviously
when those two are out of balance, you start to
see some downags pressure on prices.
Speaker 1 (03:26):
Yeah, what about listings, you know, like for hearing Darwin,
have we got a lot of stock on the market.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
No, that's really changed and we're starting the year on
a really low base. For listings across Darwin. They're tracking
about forty percent lower than there were a year ago. Wow,
so quite quite the drop in actual stock levels. So
based on data up to the beginning of February, there
was about five hundred and twenty two active listings across
(03:54):
the Darwen market over at the four weeks ending second effect,
so yeah, about about thirty nine percent down on what
it was a year ago and about forty percent below
the five year average. So it looks like vendors are
kind of sitting on their hands at the moment. We
haven't really seen a pick up in purchasing activities. This
is more about just the flow of new listings coming
into the market remaining quite low.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
So tim in terms of you know, some of those
numbers that we are saying, not just you know, not
just the low listings, but you know some of the
different things that are happening around the Darwin region. You
know what sort of behind some of those strengths.
Speaker 2 (04:30):
Well, one of the biggest and most important factors would
simply just be population growth. We've been seeing this ongoing
negative rate of interstate migration across the NT pretty much,
you know, since the interruption of the pandemic. There was
a brief and quite sharp rise in internal migration as
more people were coming across the border, but that's once
again gone deeply negative, So there's more people leaving the
(04:52):
NT than arriving. Obviously, overseas migration starting to normalize now
as well, after spiking as borders reopened. So I think
that the population of that demographic dynamic remains quite soft
for Darwin, and we don't really expect it to pick
up until economic conditions really start to show much more
substantial improvement like we've seen historically. Big infrastructure projects tend
(05:16):
to push the dial or move the dial for Darwin.
So anything like that that might be on the radar
over the coming years would probably be a catalyst for
population growth and housing markets picking up.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
Yeah, absolutely, Now, tell me in terms of our rental
market in Darwin, how's that tracking along?
Speaker 2 (05:35):
Ye, that the rental market's been generally quite soft, it
is starting to pick up a little bit now, so
we're starting to see rental growth reaccelerate, but from a
pretty low base. So you look at Darwin rents over
the past twelve months, just trying to bring the numbers
up in front of me. So we've got Darwin rents
up two point three percent over the past twelve months
(05:58):
for houses and for the apartment sector a little bit stronger.
It looks like apartment rentals are getting quite tight now.
They're up about six percents over the past twelve months.
But again, these numbers are moving from a relatively low base.
If you remember back to say twenty twenty one, that
the Darwin rental market was absolutely booming. It was leading
the nation with rent rising about twenty to twenty five
(06:20):
percent per annum, and then it slowed really sharply as
those demographic trends turned around. So at around about sort
of two to three percent for houses, nearly six percent
for apartments, that's generally an average to a slightly above
average rate of growth for unit rents.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
Well, Tim Lawler's call Logics Research Director, anything else we
should be aware of with those numbers before we let
you go this morning.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Well, of course, the market is quite seasonal in Darwin,
and no doubt everyone's working their way through some pretty
muggy weather at the moment. I think once we get
through this patch of a very hot weather and Hobby
get some rain to come through, you'll probably start to
see the market livening up a little bit more. Darwin
tends to be a lot more seasonal than other markets
through the hotter months.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
Interesting. Well, it's it's belted down here this morning, Tim,
for the first time in the ages, mate, So that's
got to be a good sign, right, we've all been
waiting for the exactly we've all been waiting for the monsoon.
Tim Lawless. Always great to catch up with you and
get your insight. Thanks so much for your time this morning. Thanks,
(07:27):
thank you,
We know. The latest starter from core Logic shows the
national home values have held steady, while values in regional
areas rose in January, reaching record new heights. The home
value index in Darwin rose zero point six percent, with
growth also recorded in Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide, while Melbourne
and the Act and Sydney endured declines. Now joining us
(00:22):
on the line to break this down further is core
Logics Research director Tim Lawless. Good morning, Tim, good morning,
lovely to have you on the show. Now, Tim, what
does the latest report show for home values in Darwin.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
Well, they've actually on a bit of a run at
the moment. We've seen a month of growth up point
six percent, but also the last quarter, so the three
months inning January, we've seen about a one point seven
percent rise. That's pretty decent for a market like Darwin
that's gone through quite a soft period of housing values.
And over the past twelve months the market's up about
(00:58):
one percent or point nine percent, So in dollar terms,
that means we've seen the market left in value by
around about four four hundred dollars over the past twelve months.
Speaker 1 (01:08):
Are there certain parts of the Greater Darwin area that
saw the highest growth.
Speaker 2 (01:14):
Yeah. Absolutely. The results are actually pretty diverse. If you
get out to markets like say Lichfield, Palmerston, the outer
fringes of Darwin itself, that's generally where we're seeing most
of the growth, and mostly in infra houses rather than
units as well. So Lychfield's up about two point four
percent in the past twelve months, Palmeston about two point
(01:34):
two percent. These are also markets that are I suppose
quite predominantly low density. There's not a lot of apartments
in those areas. But once you get into the Darwin
inner city, that's where you can start to see some weakness,
mostly being pulled down by the apartment sector, which is
still doing it pretty tough. In the last twelve months
we've seen apartment values across Darwin, it's still drifted a
(01:55):
little bit lower. You know, they are down point one percent,
so essentially flat over the past year.
Speaker 1 (02:00):
Now, tell me what's the situation. I guess for some
of I mean, like you've said Litchfield there in Palmerston,
But for some of the more regional parts of the Northern.
Speaker 2 (02:08):
Territory, Yeah, it's really different. So geet to Catherine or
Alice Springs and these markets are still extraordinarily weak. We're
seeing ongoing declines monthly, quarterly, annually. In fact, Elae Springs
is one of the few markets that's actually down in
value over the past five years, so it hasn't really
(02:29):
seen much of that pandemic upswing we've seen across a
lot of other regional markets. So the last twelve months,
Alice Springs is down in value by about four percent,
Catherine down by nearly ten percent, of that market down
nine point five percent, so quite different once you get
out into those there's more rural and remote areas well,
And you do.
Speaker 1 (02:49):
Wonder I suppose for us here locally. You know, places
like Alice and also Catherine have really grappled in the
last couple of years with some of those issues of crime.
So I don't know whether that kind of thing has
an impact, but I guess from a practical sense, for
some of us locally, we probably would say that it
does well.
Speaker 2 (03:06):
It probably doesn't help. Put it that way, Housing prices
always come back to supply and demand, and the demand
site factors are clearly quite weak in those markets, and
supply the listing numbers are generally quite high. So obviously
when those two are out of balance, you start to
see some downags pressure on prices.
Speaker 1 (03:26):
Yeah, what about listings, you know, like for hearing Darwin,
have we got a lot of stock on the market.
Speaker 2 (03:33):
No, that's really changed and we're starting the year on
a really low base. For listings across Darwin. They're tracking
about forty percent lower than there were a year ago. Wow,
so quite quite the drop in actual stock levels. So
based on data up to the beginning of February, there
was about five hundred and twenty two active listings across
(03:54):
the Darwen market over at the four weeks ending second effect,
so yeah, about about thirty nine percent down on what
it was a year ago and about forty percent below
the five year average. So it looks like vendors are
kind of sitting on their hands at the moment. We
haven't really seen a pick up in purchasing activities. This
is more about just the flow of new listings coming
into the market remaining quite low.
Speaker 1 (04:15):
So tim in terms of you know, some of those
numbers that we are saying, not just you know, not
just the low listings, but you know some of the
different things that are happening around the Darwin region. You
know what sort of behind some of those strengths.
Speaker 2 (04:30):
Well, one of the biggest and most important factors would
simply just be population growth. We've been seeing this ongoing
negative rate of interstate migration across the NT pretty much,
you know, since the interruption of the pandemic. There was
a brief and quite sharp rise in internal migration as
more people were coming across the border, but that's once
again gone deeply negative, So there's more people leaving the
(04:52):
NT than arriving. Obviously, overseas migration starting to normalize now
as well, after spiking as borders reopened. So I think
that the population of that demographic dynamic remains quite soft
for Darwin, and we don't really expect it to pick
up until economic conditions really start to show much more
substantial improvement like we've seen historically. Big infrastructure projects tend
(05:16):
to push the dial or move the dial for Darwin.
So anything like that that might be on the radar
over the coming years would probably be a catalyst for
population growth and housing markets picking up.
Speaker 1 (05:28):
Yeah, absolutely, Now, tell me in terms of our rental
market in Darwin, how's that tracking along?
Speaker 2 (05:35):
Ye, that the rental market's been generally quite soft, it
is starting to pick up a little bit now, so
we're starting to see rental growth reaccelerate, but from a
pretty low base. So you look at Darwin rents over
the past twelve months, just trying to bring the numbers
up in front of me. So we've got Darwin rents
up two point three percent over the past twelve months
(05:58):
for houses and for the apartment sector a little bit stronger.
It looks like apartment rentals are getting quite tight now.
They're up about six percents over the past twelve months.
But again, these numbers are moving from a relatively low base.
If you remember back to say twenty twenty one, that
the Darwin rental market was absolutely booming. It was leading
the nation with rent rising about twenty to twenty five
(06:20):
percent per annum, and then it slowed really sharply as
those demographic trends turned around. So at around about sort
of two to three percent for houses, nearly six percent
for apartments, that's generally an average to a slightly above
average rate of growth for unit rents.
Speaker 1 (06:39):
Well, Tim Lawler's call Logics Research Director, anything else we
should be aware of with those numbers before we let
you go this morning.
Speaker 2 (06:47):
Well, of course, the market is quite seasonal in Darwin,
and no doubt everyone's working their way through some pretty
muggy weather at the moment. I think once we get
through this patch of a very hot weather and Hobby
get some rain to come through, you'll probably start to
see the market livening up a little bit more. Darwin
tends to be a lot more seasonal than other markets
through the hotter months.
Speaker 1 (07:07):
Interesting. Well, it's it's belted down here this morning, Tim,
for the first time in the ages, mate, So that's
got to be a good sign, right, we've all been
waiting for the exactly we've all been waiting for the monsoon.
Tim Lawless. Always great to catch up with you and
get your insight. Thanks so much for your time this morning. Thanks,
(07:27):
thank you,
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