Episode Transcript
Available transcripts are automatically generated. Complete accuracy is not guaranteed.
Speaker 1 (00:00):
Now Cotalities National Home Value Index. It rose zero point
seven percent in August, the strongest month or month gain
since May last year. The result pushed the annual change
higher for the second month in a row, to four
point one percent. Now, the growth cycle has been gradually
building momentum since the February rate cut, with buyer demand
(00:23):
spurred by a lift in borrowing capacity, real wages growth,
as well as rising confidence and what is likely to
be a growing sense of urgency as advertised stock levels
remain tight. Now, how are things looking here in the
Northern Territory. Well, joining us on the line is Tim Lawless,
Totalities Research Director. Good morning to you, Tim, Good morning Katie.
(00:46):
Lovely to have you on the show. Tim. First off,
what have the latest figures shown us on a national stage?
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Well imaged the point seven percent growth rate certainly not
shooting the Lake Sert, but it's definitely building momentum. A
point seven percent growth rate nationally in dollar terms means
the market was up about seven thousand dollars in a month,
So yeah, that's pretty consequential when you're looking to get
into the marketplace as a first home buyer. The last
three months, the market's up about eighteen thousand dollars, So yeah,
(01:17):
it seems like a mild growth rate at least in
contrast to where the market was through the pandemic, which
was a peak rate of growth monthly about three percent.
But it's definitely rising faster than than incomes and wages
once again, which of course has an impact on affordability.
Speaker 1 (01:33):
We spoke to one of the leading real estate agents
in the Northern Territory on Friday last week and spoke
about the demand, I guess and the stock levels. What
have the figures shown for the Northern Territory in your
latest numbers.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
Yeah, there is a bit of a multi speed market,
that's for sure. Darwin is extraordinarily strong at the moment.
Stock levels are remarkably below they're tracking about fifty percent
below the five year average for this time of the year.
So I think for prospective buyers there's not a lot
to choose from, and there probably is a bit of
a sense of urgency creeping into their decision making against
(02:10):
this backdrop of prices arising about one percent month on
month in Darwin, and there's not a lot to choose
from in terms of stock. So I think for buyers
that they're probably looking to get in sooner rather than later,
and there's a lot of investment activity as well. We've
seen investors more than double in their at the level
of demand over the past year. Coming into Darwin probably
(02:30):
attracted to the pretty affordable buying prices. Typical price in
Darwin's about five hundred and fifty thousand dollars for dwelling,
but also really high rental yields. Yields are tracking above
six percent gross, which is way higher than any other market.
Speaker 1 (02:46):
And so what do you think that means for territory
and listening today. I mean, if they're in the market
for a home or if they're sort of looking at
selling their homes.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
Well, it's different for both sides of the fan, of course.
So if you're looking to get into the marketplace, I
think you're probably starting to experience a little bit of
a bit of angst. The market's moving quite quickly now
and there's not much stock around. It absolutely is a
seller's market. I think vendors are probably in a very
good position coming into the Spring market, which is typically
(03:17):
quite active. So I think you know, if you're a seller,
that's great news, But if you're a buyer, Yeah, the
market's starting to move a bit more quickly.
Speaker 1 (03:26):
Now.
Speaker 2 (03:27):
Remember the context is really important as well, Katie. We've
come out, but Darwin's come out of this this really
long slump wasn't really until twenty twenty the market started
to show some growth after a really long period of decline.
And it was only a couple of months ago that
Darwin actually got back to new record highs from the
previous peak was way back in that mayor twenty fourteen.
(03:47):
So even though the market's really starting to move now,
it comes after quite a long period where the market
has generated been quite soft.
Speaker 1 (03:55):
What kind of impact, Like, I know we spoke about
some of the wage growth as well as rising confidence
and also the interest rate cuts, but what kind of
impact do you think some of the initiatives as well
that the federal government's announced around you know, your first
time buyers schemes for example, what kind of impact do
you think that's having more broadly.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
Yeah, it's all aggregated, right, So I think the biggest
factors here are definitely interest rates coming down in this
booster sentiments jobs markets are pretty tight, you know, real
wages growth when you'reju just for inflations, positive that the
strongest has been since since twenty twenty. So, but some
of the schemes coming in from the government, I mean
they expanded the posit guarantee scheme for example. I think
(04:38):
you're going to be really popular, maybe not as much
in Darwin because affordability is actually relatively healthy in Darwin
compared to a market like say Sydney. You've got a
druning value to income ratio in Darwin that's down around
sort of the five mark, which is quite low. Sydney's
about double that, nearly ten. So I think for first
home buyers in Darwin that they're probably on a better
(05:00):
footing and they can probably get into the marketplace on
their own merits in many case. In many cases, whereas
a lot of other markets like Sydney's got a pricing
cap of one point five million for the first home
buyer deposit guarantee, Darwin's is remarkably lower than that. So yeah,
I think you'll find that even though that scheme is
(05:20):
going to be quite popular, I think it's going to
be a lot more popular in the markets where affordability
is really stretched.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
Yeah, although in saying that, you know, when we were
speaking on Friday, about this topic. We were sort of
hearing from the from the real estate agent that you
know that there's not a lot of stock unfortunately at
that five hundred thousand dollar mark and below it's more
sort of up a little bit higher. So I guess
our stock levels are going to be the issue exactly.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
And I think you'll find that there's probably only a
few suburbs where you can get in below those caps,
at least to the median value for buying a house.
The unit market's way different, and unit prices are a
lot lower, and potentially if you're a fresh home bar
in the territory and you need to rely on the
posit guarantee, it may be the case that after we've
(06:10):
seen a bit more price growth, that the unit market's
going to be the obvious one that comes in under
the price caps.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
Any other interesting bits and pieces of info in the
latest stats that we should know about.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
Tim, Yeah, absolutely, Katy. It's just having look at the
sort of the sub markets across DAAR and just to
see which areas are driving the growth. And probably no
surprise to any of your listeners, it is your house
market rather than units. Units are still sort of experiencing
a bit of a hangover from high supply levels in
lower demand. So we're definitely seeing value greath being given
(06:42):
by houses. And when you look at the subregions around Darwin,
it's absolutely Parmestont that's really driving the strongest gains. Values
in Palmerston are up the past twelve months by sixteen percent,
and then you've got sort of the out of suburbs
of Darwen up about twelve percent. Once you get outside
of Darwen, Alice Springs a pretty soft market. We've only
(07:03):
seen a one percent rise in values there in twelve
months and Catherine's actually down nearly two percent in twelve months.
So that's kind of that that chalk and cheese that
the two speed marketers talking about earlier.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
On how's Alice Springs going.
Speaker 2 (07:16):
Yeah, it's you know that the monthly the monthly figures
were down one percent, so it's it was negative in
that respect, but we have seen some mild growth over
the longer term. First eight months of the year we've
seen the market pick up about five percent, so a
bit of a turnaround in that market, but compared to Darwin,
it's certainly underperforming well.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
Tim Willless, it's always good to catch up with you.
I always appreciate your time. Thank you for having a
chat with us this morning.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Always a pleasure, Katie, Thanks you
Speaker 1 (07:43):
Thanks so much.
Now Cotalities National Home Value Index. It rose zero point
seven percent in August, the strongest month or month gain
since May last year. The result pushed the annual change
higher for the second month in a row, to four
point one percent. Now, the growth cycle has been gradually
building momentum since the February rate cut, with buyer demand
(00:23):
spurred by a lift in borrowing capacity, real wages growth,
as well as rising confidence and what is likely to
be a growing sense of urgency as advertised stock levels
remain tight. Now, how are things looking here in the
Northern Territory. Well, joining us on the line is Tim Lawless,
Totalities Research Director. Good morning to you, Tim, Good morning Katie.
(00:46):
Lovely to have you on the show. Tim. First off,
what have the latest figures shown us on a national stage?
Speaker 2 (00:54):
Well imaged the point seven percent growth rate certainly not
shooting the Lake Sert, but it's definitely building momentum. A
point seven percent growth rate nationally in dollar terms means
the market was up about seven thousand dollars in a month,
So yeah, that's pretty consequential when you're looking to get
into the marketplace as a first home buyer. The last
three months, the market's up about eighteen thousand dollars, So yeah,
(01:17):
it seems like a mild growth rate at least in
contrast to where the market was through the pandemic, which
was a peak rate of growth monthly about three percent.
But it's definitely rising faster than than incomes and wages
once again, which of course has an impact on affordability.
Speaker 1 (01:33):
We spoke to one of the leading real estate agents
in the Northern Territory on Friday last week and spoke
about the demand, I guess and the stock levels. What
have the figures shown for the Northern Territory in your
latest numbers.
Speaker 2 (01:49):
Yeah, there is a bit of a multi speed market,
that's for sure. Darwin is extraordinarily strong at the moment.
Stock levels are remarkably below they're tracking about fifty percent
below the five year average for this time of the year.
So I think for prospective buyers there's not a lot
to choose from, and there probably is a bit of
a sense of urgency creeping into their decision making against
(02:10):
this backdrop of prices arising about one percent month on
month in Darwin, and there's not a lot to choose
from in terms of stock. So I think for buyers
that they're probably looking to get in sooner rather than later,
and there's a lot of investment activity as well. We've
seen investors more than double in their at the level
of demand over the past year. Coming into Darwin probably
(02:30):
attracted to the pretty affordable buying prices. Typical price in
Darwin's about five hundred and fifty thousand dollars for dwelling,
but also really high rental yields. Yields are tracking above
six percent gross, which is way higher than any other market.
Speaker 1 (02:46):
And so what do you think that means for territory
and listening today. I mean, if they're in the market
for a home or if they're sort of looking at
selling their homes.
Speaker 2 (02:57):
Well, it's different for both sides of the fan, of course.
So if you're looking to get into the marketplace, I
think you're probably starting to experience a little bit of
a bit of angst. The market's moving quite quickly now
and there's not much stock around. It absolutely is a
seller's market. I think vendors are probably in a very
good position coming into the Spring market, which is typically
(03:17):
quite active. So I think you know, if you're a seller,
that's great news, But if you're a buyer, Yeah, the
market's starting to move a bit more quickly.
Speaker 1 (03:26):
Now.
Speaker 2 (03:27):
Remember the context is really important as well, Katie. We've
come out, but Darwin's come out of this this really
long slump wasn't really until twenty twenty the market started
to show some growth after a really long period of decline.
And it was only a couple of months ago that
Darwin actually got back to new record highs from the
previous peak was way back in that mayor twenty fourteen.
(03:47):
So even though the market's really starting to move now,
it comes after quite a long period where the market
has generated been quite soft.
Speaker 1 (03:55):
What kind of impact, Like, I know we spoke about
some of the wage growth as well as rising confidence
and also the interest rate cuts, but what kind of
impact do you think some of the initiatives as well
that the federal government's announced around you know, your first
time buyers schemes for example, what kind of impact do
you think that's having more broadly.
Speaker 2 (04:17):
Yeah, it's all aggregated, right, So I think the biggest
factors here are definitely interest rates coming down in this
booster sentiments jobs markets are pretty tight, you know, real
wages growth when you'reju just for inflations, positive that the
strongest has been since since twenty twenty. So, but some
of the schemes coming in from the government, I mean
they expanded the posit guarantee scheme for example. I think
(04:38):
you're going to be really popular, maybe not as much
in Darwin because affordability is actually relatively healthy in Darwin
compared to a market like say Sydney. You've got a
druning value to income ratio in Darwin that's down around
sort of the five mark, which is quite low. Sydney's
about double that, nearly ten. So I think for first
home buyers in Darwin that they're probably on a better
(05:00):
footing and they can probably get into the marketplace on
their own merits in many case. In many cases, whereas
a lot of other markets like Sydney's got a pricing
cap of one point five million for the first home
buyer deposit guarantee, Darwin's is remarkably lower than that. So yeah,
I think you'll find that even though that scheme is
(05:20):
going to be quite popular, I think it's going to
be a lot more popular in the markets where affordability
is really stretched.
Speaker 1 (05:26):
Yeah, although in saying that, you know, when we were
speaking on Friday, about this topic. We were sort of
hearing from the from the real estate agent that you
know that there's not a lot of stock unfortunately at
that five hundred thousand dollar mark and below it's more
sort of up a little bit higher. So I guess
our stock levels are going to be the issue exactly.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
And I think you'll find that there's probably only a
few suburbs where you can get in below those caps,
at least to the median value for buying a house.
The unit market's way different, and unit prices are a
lot lower, and potentially if you're a fresh home bar
in the territory and you need to rely on the
posit guarantee, it may be the case that after we've
(06:10):
seen a bit more price growth, that the unit market's
going to be the obvious one that comes in under
the price caps.
Speaker 1 (06:15):
Any other interesting bits and pieces of info in the
latest stats that we should know about.
Speaker 2 (06:21):
Tim, Yeah, absolutely, Katy. It's just having look at the
sort of the sub markets across DAAR and just to
see which areas are driving the growth. And probably no
surprise to any of your listeners, it is your house
market rather than units. Units are still sort of experiencing
a bit of a hangover from high supply levels in
lower demand. So we're definitely seeing value greath being given
(06:42):
by houses. And when you look at the subregions around Darwin,
it's absolutely Parmestont that's really driving the strongest gains. Values
in Palmerston are up the past twelve months by sixteen percent,
and then you've got sort of the out of suburbs
of Darwen up about twelve percent. Once you get outside
of Darwen, Alice Springs a pretty soft market. We've only
(07:03):
seen a one percent rise in values there in twelve
months and Catherine's actually down nearly two percent in twelve months.
So that's kind of that that chalk and cheese that
the two speed marketers talking about earlier.
Speaker 1 (07:13):
On how's Alice Springs going.
Speaker 2 (07:16):
Yeah, it's you know that the monthly the monthly figures
were down one percent, so it's it was negative in
that respect, but we have seen some mild growth over
the longer term. First eight months of the year we've
seen the market pick up about five percent, so a
bit of a turnaround in that market, but compared to Darwin,
it's certainly underperforming well.
Speaker 1 (07:35):
Tim Willless, it's always good to catch up with you.
I always appreciate your time. Thank you for having a
chat with us this morning.
Speaker 2 (07:42):
Always a pleasure, Katie, Thanks you
Speaker 1 (07:43):
Thanks so much.
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