Short-term ‘trap’: Oxford Uni professor warns on TV industry plan to build outcomes model – but still thinks they should build it; says agencies hold key to advertising beyond reach, and can lift his code

Oxford University Associate Professor Felipe Thomaz was a runaway Mi3 hit last year with a peer-reviewed paper that smashes the economics and relevance of audience reach. His analysis – based on 1,000 campaigns and a million customer journeys via Kantar and Wavemaker data – finds blunt use of reach will not deliver business outcomes, because not all reach is equal.

Business outcomes was all the talk at the Future of TV Advertising last week, with industry backing the build of a real-time dashboard via Adgile Media to map and measure impressions delivered to hard results close to real-time. Thomaz thinks it’s a start but warns industry risks falling into a “trap” of short-term skew, essentially applying performance metrics to a brand channel.

“That worries me,” per Thomaz. “We know from decades of existing research that the long-term impact of advertising is twice the short-term impact of advertising.”

But that doesn’t mean industry shouldn’t build it.

Per Thomaz, “It's definitely the right path, and we can do this, but we cannot stop there. This is low hanging fruit. You start there, start measuring and say, ‘look, I'm getting outcomes’ … But you cannot ignore the fact that the future exists.” However, he thinks if industry builds it – and keeps building – it could pay off. “If you're eating low hanging fruit and everybody else is eating off the floor, you're golden.”

Meanwhile Thomaz thinks agencies could be the key to cracking the code on moving beyond reach and into outcomes because they have enough visibility on pool of clients and, potentially, their data. He says one big global brand owner that has in-housed most of its media is finding exactly the same thing as his paper suggests – and making major gains as a result.

Thomaz says that code is all outlined in his paper – and any agency can lift it. “They literally can just go steal the code and run.”

Now he’s working on another paper – aiming to prove the impact of different media channels and beyond – including touchpoints like “customer service and salespeople and their effectiveness in driving different outcomes” within different categories.

“This is interesting for the people that own those channels, because suddenly they're not competing just on audience size – they're competing on value derived from that audience,” says Thomaz. “That is what media owners are going to be really interested in: Can I charge more for an impression on my platform for this client because they'll get 6x the return [versus another channel].”

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