Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:01):
Cam and Renee's Real Estate Show on Mix one O
six point three be the Envy of Camera Live in
de Burg at Northborne Village by JW Land now selling Cam.
Speaker 2 (00:10):
It is time for another Mixed one O six point
three real Estate show podcast.
Speaker 3 (00:14):
Yeah, we had a great lineup of guests live on
Saturday morning on the radio. Now we get to relive
it once again. Michael Yardney joins us, as he does
each and every month.
Speaker 2 (00:23):
Yes, and this time we explored with him, how are
our markets performing given that spring is underway? Now what
we can expect property wise for the.
Speaker 3 (00:30):
Rest of the year and maybe just a little inkling,
a little hint of another interest rate, but maybe not
at the end of this month.
Speaker 2 (00:36):
We'll have to wait and see what happens there, that's
for sure. We also caught up with the newly appointed
HIA Director for ACT in Southern New South Wales, Jordan Murray. Yeah.
Speaker 3 (00:45):
Well, I mean this is an invitation just to speak
to and get to meet these new executives coming in
with their vision for what housing should be might be
here in the nation's capital and of course the capital
region as well. Great to meet him and he's got plenty.
Speaker 2 (01:00):
On absolutely and we know how hard it can be
for first home buyers to crack into the market. We
found out a bit more about the home guarantee scheme,
which has been around for a while, but it's being
expanded from the first of October.
Speaker 3 (01:10):
Indeed, Yanni Pazioside, director at YSP Lending, joined us and
he's done a lot of research in and around that
and had everything that we need to notes it. I
mean very positive. Really yeah, I think so okay. So
that's what's ahead of us in our podcast for you
right now, all thanks to JW Land mixed on a
six point three.
Speaker 4 (01:29):
Now can we are of course well into spring now.
Speaker 2 (01:32):
It is that time of year and we're coming off
a winter that was pretty strong, you know, property wise,
and so we thought we'd get an update on how
are our markets performing and what is ahead for the
rest of the year, which we like to do and
say good morning to Michael Yarney, founder of Metropol Property
Strategists and host of the Michael Yarney Podcast.
Speaker 4 (01:50):
Michael, good morning, Good morning, Renee.
Speaker 2 (01:52):
Now, look like I said, we are well into spring now, Michael,
how have our property markets been performing and what is
ahead for the spring?
Speaker 4 (01:59):
Selling season.
Speaker 5 (02:00):
Springs the time when these usually more market activity. People
are getting ready to move before the end of the year,
maybe looking to what's going to happen with their kids
in school next year. So overall, springs usually a good
time for property markets, and Canberra has done pretty well
recently too. Overall in Australia that property markets have kept rising.
(02:23):
It's easy to year the first interest rate cut in February.
People started to get confidence. Buyers came back, they had
a bit more affordability, but it was really confidence that
pushed the market forward.
Speaker 4 (02:35):
Canberra's been a little.
Speaker 5 (02:36):
Bit slower than the rest of the country, but even
so the Camebra market has picked up. According to cotality
point four percent last month. Point what doesn't sound like much,
but multiply it out by twelve and it means that
Canberra's going to have a good year. Domain have forecast
doctor Nicolo pal from Domain's forecasters Cambra's going to now
(02:58):
start picking up for the rest of this year and
next year and suggest that Canberra property values could rise
about seven percent between now and the end of this
financial year. In other words, in June.
Speaker 2 (03:13):
In other words, it'll be a.
Speaker 5 (03:15):
Good time for homeowners but it's also going to be
the time to make a decision and get in because
the market is going to be picking up.
Speaker 6 (03:22):
Yeah.
Speaker 3 (03:22):
Day, that's a bold prediction from doctor Powell as well.
I think also, Michael, like I mean, springtime is it's
just a time where, especially in Camera and the cold
parts of Australia, come out of the cold and the
place almost sort of wakes up, doesn't it, And so
all of those things that you mentioned, Yes, the property
arkat sort of comes awake, but it's just the fact
that we're out of the cold and things just feel
(03:45):
better in spring, don't they.
Speaker 5 (03:46):
Well, people make big decisions when they feel better. Now,
just to make it clear, with that price rise in
Canberra still going to be back to its previous peak,
which is in the middle of twenty twenty two. But
this is the way robbery cycles work. So those who
are looking at the value of their home and thinking, gee,
it hasn't gone up much over a while. That's happened
(04:07):
in Melbourne as well in Perth number of years ago.
It's just the way the housing cycle works. And with
more demand than there is supply, as people feel better,
as you say, Cam, the market's got to gently slowly,
no boom, no boom, but gently move forward.
Speaker 4 (04:23):
Okay and Michael.
Speaker 2 (04:24):
The Reserve Bank meets at the end of the month,
but there has been that recent uptick in inflation, sort
of showing signs of a strengthening economy.
Speaker 4 (04:32):
Does this mean an interest rate cut is off the cards?
Speaker 5 (04:35):
Well, everyone was hoping for another interest rate cut. The
reserve banks cut them three times, and I don't think
all the full effects of the last one has worked
this way through the property markets yet. But yes, inflation
has crept up GDP, the economy has crept up a bit,
And recently Ay and Z dropped a bombshell made headlines
(04:57):
suggesting we may not see another interest rate cut this
year or even at all. I don't think that's right.
I don't think we're going to have an interest rate
cut in September. The Reserve Bank has no reason to
cut rates again.
Speaker 6 (05:10):
We've got to see how the last.
Speaker 5 (05:11):
Rate cuts work their way through the system. But traditionally,
November cup dates has been the mon cup dates has
been the time when they've dropped interest rates because then
they don't meet again till the beginning of the next year.
But the economy is one of the reasons the Reserve
Bank that strength of the economy, and that doesn't play
people's cost of living issues, but the strength of the
(05:34):
economy is one of the reasons the Reserve Bank statu
just wait and see how it all plays out day.
Speaker 3 (05:39):
All right, well, all things considered, we still say to
the RBA, come on something, give us, give us something.
Speaker 2 (05:45):
Please please, And by the time we speak to you again, Michael,
that meeting would have happened. So we'll see and be
able to chat to you about whatever happens there. Thank
you so much for your time this morning. Really appreciate it,
my pleasure.
Speaker 7 (05:57):
Thank you guys.
Speaker 4 (05:58):
Thank you.
Speaker 2 (05:59):
Michael Yarnisi of Metropol Property Strategistics.
Speaker 3 (06:02):
Welcome our next guest. Now, if you didn't know, the
Housing Industry Association or HIA, has appointed Jordan Murray as
the regional executive director for ACT and Southern New South Wales.
We're going to meeting right now. I saw this sum
come up a couple.
Speaker 4 (06:15):
Of weeks ago and it's just like right.
Speaker 3 (06:16):
We do plenty of stuff with HIA over the years,
and so we should meet the new guy.
Speaker 4 (06:21):
So here is good morning, good morning, now, thanks so
much for coming on the show.
Speaker 2 (06:26):
Jordan, You have had a few weeks to sort of
settle in.
Speaker 4 (06:29):
Now, what are you loving most about the role? So far.
Speaker 7 (06:33):
Getting out and meeting HIO members has been great and
saying all the amazing new builds that they're doing it
out around the region, particularly the way they're integrating all
the new building technology and particularly around the energy efficiency
type thing. So we're seeing some really high performing homes
going up at the moment.
Speaker 3 (06:53):
And so what was so you go out to those
job sites and we talk about sustainability, what sort of
conversations are you happening with the the builders and the architects.
Speaker 7 (07:02):
Well, the ACAT was the only jurisdiction to fully adopt
that changes to the NCC around seven star or energy
efficiency back end that came out in twenty twenty two.
So we've sort of been beginnea pig in a way
in developing the solutions that builders are now integrating to
comply with the new code. So it's certainly thrown some
(07:26):
challenges out there, but it's forced some innovation and there's
still a lot of challenges out there, but they're up
to the task.
Speaker 2 (07:34):
Yeah, And so when you walked into the office on
your first day, what was the first thing on the
list that you got stuck into.
Speaker 7 (07:41):
Well, there's been a few things that are on the
desk when I arrived that there's probably a big education
piece on developer licensing that's in the pipeline at the moment.
So applications for developer licensing open up on the first
of October and then we've got to twelve months before
it becomes mandatory. So just the way the legislation is written,
(08:06):
it essentially could mean that anyone building three or more
homes would require to be a developer license, and someone
building three homes probably isn't going to consider themselves a developer.
So there's a bit of an education piece there to
bring industry up to speed with what's the new requirements
are for those licenses?
Speaker 3 (08:24):
All right, And of course we know housing crisis, we
know all the challenges that are sort of in play
at the moment.
Speaker 4 (08:32):
So I love asking this question.
Speaker 7 (08:34):
If you were the.
Speaker 3 (08:34):
Federal Minister for Housing for a day, what's the first
thing you would do to solve the crisis.
Speaker 7 (08:41):
Look, if I was the Housing Minister for the day,
I think I'd be spend a fair bit of the
day banging my head against the wall. There's a lot
of solving our housing crisis really does involve improving housing supply,
and unfortunately for the federal Housing Minister, a lot of
the leavers that can improve housing supply lie with the
(09:03):
states and local governments, and we've got eight states and
territories and we've got hundreds of local governments. So it's
really for the federal minister around creating incentives for the
other levels of government to be acting in the right way.
So I think one of the best things that they
could be doing is creating some funding mechanisms that will
(09:24):
enable those other levels of government to be investing in
the infrastructure that's going to support residential development. So you know,
whether that's greenfield's development or in field development, there's a
lot of additional infrastructure that needs to be delivered to
basically improve the carrying capacity of the infrastructure to enable
more housing to be developed. So whether it's electricity, whether
(09:48):
it's water roads, power roads, all of those things need
to be scaled up if we're to be delivering the
homes that we need. So within the AC we've got
the housing target of delivering seventy percent of the new
housing supply through infield so that's going to put a
lot of pressure on the existing infrastructure around the territory,
(10:10):
particularly around the around the shop centers, so a fair
bit of infrastructure investment is going to be required there.
So as a federal minister, I'd be looking at ways
to take the budget pressure off lower levels of government
enable that to happen.
Speaker 2 (10:27):
Yes, and I'm sure many people would agree with you there. Jordan,
Thank you so much. It's been lovely to chat to you.
Congrats on your new role and no doubt we'll be
speaking to you again in some.
Speaker 7 (10:34):
States, will yeah, thank you look forward to it.
Speaker 4 (10:37):
Thank you so much.
Speaker 2 (10:38):
Jordan Murray, who's the executive director of the Hiaact in
southern New South Wales.
Speaker 5 (10:42):
Well Cam.
Speaker 4 (10:43):
A few of our recent interview.
Speaker 2 (10:45):
Guests on the Real Estate Show have made references to
help for first home bias.
Speaker 4 (10:52):
That's on the way.
Speaker 2 (10:53):
We're going to explore a little bit of that this morning,
the home Guarantee scheme that's being expanded from the first
of October and.
Speaker 4 (10:59):
Find out what that all means.
Speaker 2 (11:00):
And say good morning to Yarni Pas yours director at
YSP Lendy and Yanni good morning.
Speaker 6 (11:05):
Good morning, how are you guys?
Speaker 1 (11:07):
Good.
Speaker 2 (11:07):
Now, look, can you give us an overview of this
scheme and what a will mean for first home buyers.
Speaker 6 (11:13):
Yeah. Look, it's not a new scheme. It's actually been
around for about four or five years. It's just a
bit of an update to the criteria from October one
that's going to be pretty helpful. What's happening here in
the Act is the income cap is being removed, so
you can make as much money as humanly possible and
still be eligible. And there's an increase to the value
(11:34):
of the property purchase price from seven hundred and fifty
up two million dollars. So that are two key changes that,
in my opinion, will be a bit of a game
changer for first home buyers here in the Act. Yeah, okay, and.
Speaker 5 (11:46):
So why then?
Speaker 3 (11:47):
So obviously they're I mean that freze things up a
little bit.
Speaker 4 (11:51):
But what else? Why else is that?
Speaker 5 (11:52):
Good? Oh?
Speaker 6 (11:54):
Look, just judging on the conversations I've had over the
last six to twelve months, you know, there was plenty
of for tone buyers who you know, were unable to
be eligible for the skin given their incomes as couples.
Previously it was two hundred thousand dollars as a house
of income for couples and just purely finding the right
property up to the value cap. So you know, opening
(12:15):
it up to a million dollars gives first home buyers here,
you know, a perthoro properties to choose from.
Speaker 3 (12:20):
And I suppose also we I mean, we tend to
think of first home buyers as younger people, which is
why those sort of caps on those numbers have been
what they have been. But that's not necessarily the case,
is it in twenty twenty five?
Speaker 5 (12:36):
Now?
Speaker 6 (12:37):
Look, well I've been dealing with first hone buyers, as
you know, in their forties and fifties. So yeah, there's
no age restriction except for you must be over eighteen, okay.
Speaker 2 (12:46):
And has there been much sort of negative commentary or
feedback about these changes?
Speaker 6 (12:53):
Yeah, look, I've heard each start of the spectrum. One
being that you know, the price values will be driven
up quicker, up to a million bucks given that the
schemes now increasing the price cap. But also you know,
if you're going in with a five percent deposit and
exposing yourself to a ninety five percent loan, and if
there was to be a property crash, you'd be exposed
over one hundred percent, which means, you know, selling would
(13:15):
be quite tricky, it'd be costly.
Speaker 3 (13:18):
And so mate, what's popped out for the scheme as
far as you know positives are concerned. Obviously, it just
widens the market and gives more opportunity for people.
Speaker 6 (13:27):
Yeah. Absolutely, they've also removed that previously there was a
you know, they had space as annually thirty five thousand
spaces on the scheme. That's now been removed. The positive thing,
in my opinion is definitely the increase to the property
purchase price and the removal of the income cap. It
just allows many more first home buyers to utilize the scheme.
Speaker 3 (13:48):
So when you say there was thirty five thousand dollars spaces,
what does that mean?
Speaker 6 (13:52):
Well, if thirty five thousand people were to utilize the
scheme in the financial year, that the next person wouldn't
be eligible because it happen on.
Speaker 4 (14:00):
How many people can access it.
Speaker 6 (14:01):
Right, Okay, yep, that's now being removed as of the
first of October.
Speaker 2 (14:05):
And just in relation to what you mentioned there with
some of the negative commentary, do you think that this
could lead some first home buyers into a bit of
a trap down the track, Like is that a concern
that you have.
Speaker 6 (14:17):
Oh look, if economically there was to be a you know,
a value crash with properties here, that could be concerning.
But as long as you know first time buys it
at the right strategy in place for the next two
to five years to lower their debt as quickly as possible,
I think everything will be all right.
Speaker 2 (14:33):
Yeah, yeah, okay, So just going with a good plan,
all right, Yanni, thank you so much for sharing that
with us this morning.
Speaker 6 (14:38):
No problem.
Speaker 2 (14:39):
Have a great day, guys, you too, are Yannie Pazios,
director at YSP Lending.
Speaker 3 (14:44):
Well, those are the interviews we most enjoyed in last
week's Mixed one O six point three real Estate Show.
If you love hearing about the latest trends, or you're
just up for a sticky beek, be sure to drop
by for a listen this Saturday between nine and ten
Cam and
Speaker 1 (14:57):
Rene's Real Estate Show on Mix one six point three