July 17, 2024 • 28 mins
Pollsters Matt Towery, of Insider Advantage and Robert Cahaly, of the Trafalgar Group, talk about latest polls on the Presidential race following the assassination attempt on the President.
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Stay right here for our final news round up and
information overload.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
All right, News round Up and information overload. Our toll free,
our numbers eight hundred and nine to four one sean
if you want to be a part of the program.
So as Joe Biden, every day he survives, gets closer
to locking in the three nine hundred delegates of the
four thousand available, and as people like Adam Schiff have
now joined the choir of Democrats calling for Biden to
(00:27):
step aside, Well what does this mean? I don't think
anybody can predict with any sense of accuracy how this
plays out.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
If I had to guess, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
Maybe I think Joe is a very good chance of survival,
but I would not be at all surprised if, in fact,
Kamala Harris or somebody else would to replace him. Where
are we in terms of the race, Well, that's where
our friends, our posters come in. Matt Towery Insider Advantage.
Robert Kahley Trafalgar Group Real Clear Politics has pointed out
(01:01):
that they were the two most accurate pollsters in the
last two presidential election cycles. Welcome back both of you
to the program.
Speaker 3 (01:11):
Appreciate you being with us.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
Thank you. Happy to be with you.
Speaker 3 (01:15):
All right, Matt, let me start with you.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
I saw your poll Fox five Atlanta, but we have
more details of this. Biden's up by three in Georgia.
But what surprised me the most is Kamala Harris, He's
down by ten against Donald Trump. I would assume that
if they're doing their own polling, internal polls, that the
Biden administration has to know this and Democrats have to
(01:39):
know this, do they not, Matt.
Speaker 1 (01:40):
Towery Sean, I have to tell you, in every one
of these states the trend was the same. Harris was
running about ten points below Biden in a ballot test
against Trump. But even more important, I will say this,
we have not seeing some big bump for Trump after
the almost tragic shooting. But it maybe be seen in
(02:03):
another way, the enthusiasm gap. In other words, we ask
people how enthusiastic they are about voting in November, eighty
to fifty five Republican in Florida, eighty five to fifty
nine Republican in Arizona, Nevada, it's eighty two sixty. Pennsylvania
it's fifty nine, seventy five to fifty nine. And then
(02:24):
in Georgia, it's eighty nine fifty two. If voters are
that unenthusiastic and they have no other alternative than their
vice president, they're going to have to stick with Biden,
and they're going to have to find a way some
way to make their voters get out to the polls
in big numbers in November, or these polling numbers have
given you could be much higher for Trump.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Let's get your take. Robert Cahelly, and I know you've
been out in the field as well. What are your
poll numbers. What do you beginning to see?
Speaker 4 (02:52):
Well, Wisconsin and we've we've based ours on the people
who have qualified to be on their ballots, so we
didn't do just head to head. We included all the
others that are Wisconsin, we have Trump up by two
point six at forty five point six to forty three
(03:12):
point zero. And in Michigan we have Trump up by
two point one forty five point one to forty three.
And so what we're seeing is it's kind of what
Matt's talking about. But I think the real phenomenon is
we've seen people drop off of Kennedy and move to undecided. Now,
(03:38):
in my experience, they're you know what we call our
hidden Trump voters are often answering undecided at this point.
So I just think that that dropping people who have
gone Kennedy to undecided tend to be the ones that
are on the more conservative side of things. So I
(03:58):
think what's happening is just they're considering doing something different.
But you know, this case is really kind of baked.
I mean, it's We've just seen people who think Biden's
incomfident who are still voting for him, who think that
Trump was guilty of the charges, but are still voting
for Trump. And so I think the assassination, as much
(04:20):
as it does drive h interest in voting, I just
don't know that it's affecting the top lines, but I
do like what it does for the enthusiasm. We measure
enthusiasm well differently, but we are definitely seeing a huge
uh difference in enthusiasm.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
Uh explain, explain the difference in how you measure enthusiasm.
Speaker 4 (04:43):
Well, we make it. We have like six different categories
of enthusiasm. I think Matt does three, kind of like
Matt Twift doing it a little better. I think it's simpler,
but very interested and very very you know, likely to vote.
We're finding the people that are for Trumps are just
I mean, it's like in the eighties and ninety percent
(05:07):
of their willingness participate and then kind of gonna vote, likely,
you gonna vote, might vote. We find those kind of
moves toward Biden and those people are in most cases
well blow sixties. So it is there's just that enthusiasm
(05:27):
gap will effect turnout, and it doesn't just affect turnout,
in effects the number of people who want to walk doors,
the number of people who want to make calls. It
filters down to the entire thing. And the Democrats incredible
get out the vote depends on people being a little enthusiastic,
So I think effects more than election day.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
Well, what are you seeing as it relates to Kamala Harris?
Are you seeing what Matt is?
Speaker 4 (05:54):
Okay, we didn't measure Kamala Harris because this point after
the attempt to say station Trump, that was kind of
off the headlines. So we did measure that. We did,
like I said, a little differently, and we will have
North Carolina tomorrow, so that was kind.
Speaker 2 (06:10):
Of So is is all of your polling post assassination attempt?
Speaker 3 (06:15):
Yes, sir, Yes, Okay, so.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
You don't see a discernible difference yet. Is it something
that maybe will take a little time to sink into
the consciousness of the American voters.
Speaker 4 (06:28):
I think it might. And the other thing I think
is just in looking the way that Trump has been
at the convention. If his convention speech is a departure
from his normal speech and a more uniting, uh you know,
a less just less normal Trump and and and kind
(06:48):
of maybe a new direction. I think that that, combined
with the attempted assassination could have a huge impact because
he thought. What I think that we'll find is that
people want to see that didn't like Trump, but this
has affected the way he thinks and maybe added agree
(07:11):
of humility or just a degree of appreciation, you know, just.
Speaker 2 (07:16):
I mean, well, maybe maybe it did a good job.
I'm just speculating here. I mean, because Donald Trump has
been so demonized by so many for so long, that
did it do a job of pointing out that, you know,
the dehumanizing efforts of the left over all these many years. Uh,
maybe it came home that hey, this guy is a father,
(07:38):
this guy is a human being. This guy is not
Adolph Hitler or evil as Joe Biden calls him, well.
Speaker 4 (07:47):
Think about it this way too. Another angle is people
who would have never tuned in to hear what Trump
had to say because they think they already know what
he's going to say and that they're kind of done
with him. This assassin, I said, is going to make
people want to hear what he has to say, and
so his message might be delivered to people whose ears
(08:08):
are usually closed to him, and I think it can
be very positive for him.
Speaker 3 (08:12):
Let's get your take on that, Matt Twery, Well, I.
Speaker 5 (08:15):
Have a couple of takes.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
First of all, I think the enthusiasm gap is a
bigger thing than we realized because really, in reality, we're
polling off of turnout models from the past, right, we
have to make predictions. If the gap continues, those turnout
models have to be adjusted as well, So it could
well be we tight. We pulld very tightly, Sean. We
were not like private posters for candidates or whatever. We
(08:37):
have to be very tight in what we do. I
think Trump has enjoyed an advantage post the shooting. I
think it could get much stronger after the convention, But
I will say conventions only give so much of a
boost and to Roberts point, a lot of the case
is baked in as to how people feel about these candidates.
There's only so much wiggle room to change minds. It's
a matter of who turns out and how big. And
(09:00):
I think the biggest bottom line of all this, poets
is the enthusiasm gap being almost twenty percent in most
of these states, which is unbelievable. And I'm shocked. And
these other people say they're going to vote. But if
they say they're enthused he asked about voting, they're really
going and that means you're going to have a stronger turnout.
If Trumps keep that going on in all of these
states and he's leading in everyone, he will definitely be elected.
Speaker 2 (09:24):
All right, So where does the race stand now? I mean,
the President's really been having a very good week in
my opinion. I'll start with you, Matt on this question.
Speaker 3 (09:34):
JD.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
Vans was selected. I had the first interview with him.
I will say this is one measurement. Ratings were through
the roof. Americans wanted to know more about JD.
Speaker 3 (09:45):
Vans.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
I asked every question that I could possibly think of.
I left nothing off the table, starting with his past
criticism of Donald Trump in twenty sixteen, even if going
as as far as to compare him to Headler, and
I thought he had very good answers for all those questions,
issues of abortion, issues involving women. I mean, we went
(10:10):
over every single source of potential controversy he may be facing,
and with what seemed like a lot of ease, he
was able to explain it all.
Speaker 1 (10:22):
Yeah. I mean that was a great interview, by the way,
and I think that Vance absolutely no harm to the
ticket whatsoever. That's the number one thing, do no harm.
It keeps the face enthused, it keeps everyone going. He's youthful.
I think that's going to potentially attract voters. And by
the way, Robert and I are both seeing these same
patterns that the youngest of voters are going to Trump
(10:44):
and so many of these states, which is reverses what
we've seen in the past. It's actually the folks in
the middle who are his biggest problem right now, and
the older voters are beginning to drift back to Trump.
But I think Vance is a strong selection for Trump politically.
I think he gives a future for the Republican Party,
and he seems to acquit himself very well, and he's
(11:04):
avoided this critical time period. You know, with the media,
they're just a rabbit in trying to attack anything that
boost Trump at all, and he's survived the last few days.
They've given their best shot, and it's had very little
effect on him in my opinion.
Speaker 3 (11:18):
Let's get your take Robert on the same question.
Speaker 4 (11:21):
Well, I think the one thing is any candidate is
not just judged on what they say after their announcements
vice president. Uh, it's basically their whole body of work,
things they've said before.
Speaker 5 (11:39):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
And it's I think the media is they've already started
to kind of hone in on what he said right
after the shooting, uh and saying you know, he prematurely
blamed it and some of the other things he said
in the past about abortion. So I think they're gonna
they're gonna spend a lot of time on that.
Speaker 1 (11:57):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (11:57):
But But I still think as far as moving things forward,
and this is Trump's answer to there's a lot of
people who have had all they can take of identity politics.
And while everybody kept telling Trump picked this person, this person,
it's like Trump said, I can't say that I cannot
(12:20):
be against identity politics, and yet give into it to
a certain degree when it caused my running mate. And
I think that statement that he just found somebody who
fit ideologically that he thought had the credentials to be
president and he ignored.
Speaker 5 (12:37):
That other stuff.
Speaker 4 (12:38):
I think that's that's that's a statement that's gonna beople
are going to realize that he didn't give into any
of that or that pressure.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
And they were, what about this iconic photo? He just
gets shot in the ear and it did pierce his year.
He comes within a millimeter of death and he insists
on standing up, pumping his fist and shouting fight fight.
Speaker 3 (13:03):
To me, it's now iconic.
Speaker 2 (13:05):
And you know, compare that to this weak, frail, cognitive deteriorating,
you know, old man that's in the White House.
Speaker 3 (13:13):
Now, I mean, what a contrast in images? How big
is that going.
Speaker 5 (13:17):
To be question?
Speaker 4 (13:18):
I mean that photo is on the level of Bush
in the rubble with the megaphone. It really is. And
I think it will be seen that way. And this
movement of people that were in the middle in our
numbers back to undecided, not off of Trump, but from
(13:41):
Kennedy and others to undecided, I think in the end
will probably end up with Trump. I think we've got
a new crop of quote unquote hidden Trump voters that
are brand new Trump voters that aren't ready to say
so yet. So I think we're gonna see more movement,
and I think a convention speed that people are listening
(14:02):
to and higher numbers than ever cared what Trump had
to say. I can mantion feast that even the most
liberal networks will carry. It's going to go a long
way to consolidating that.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
Well, let me ask the last question, because there's a
pull out today. Sixty five percent of Democrats want Biden out.
Here's my question. Will he be the candidate? And I
got a run Matt Tower, Yes or no.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
There's no way that they can't pass over Harris and
she can't win. She's too far behind.
Speaker 2 (14:34):
So he will you that you predict he will be
he will remain the candidate?
Speaker 3 (14:38):
I do, Yes, What do you think, Robert.
Speaker 4 (14:42):
Short of him doing something really dumb between now and
his commission, I think he will.
Speaker 5 (14:46):
Be the candidate.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
Well, he could be one fall away or one really
horrible cognitive moment away from being replaced.
Speaker 3 (14:54):
I can't be.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
You have to add that caveat, and anything can happen,
and you know just what one hundred and ten days
from now, and again early voting starts in just a
mere sixty one days in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 3 (15:08):
Hey, listen, appreciate both of you.
Speaker 2 (15:09):
We'll have you on often before the election. All right,
back to our phones. Let's say hi to Paul Is
in Connecticut. Hey, Paul, welcome to Milwaukee. Glad you called sir.
Speaker 5 (15:20):
Hey Sean, thanks for taking my phone call. So here
in Connecticut, Seawan, you know, it's it's a it's tough
up here because you know, we are we're underrated here
because you know, we have we're out numbered and we
have a lot of Trump supporters, but our vote doesn't
(15:41):
count here. So it's difficult. And when you see what happened,
when you see what happened on Saturday, and you know,
you got to say to yourself, twenty six minutes, this
guy's walking around, Their spectators are staying, are are screaming
that there's a shooter on the room and nothing is done.
(16:02):
And then you got Joe Biden that comes out and says, well,
you know we're going to have a special council. No, no,
we've been down that road. We've seen your Special councils
withious dossier. We've seen them with.
Speaker 2 (16:16):
The Oh, we've seen it with a lot of cases.
I'm trying to help you out here because you're dead
on right what you're saying. You know, we've seen it
over and over again. We've seen the double standard. We've
seen the weaponization of our Justice Department. We've seen fifty
one former Intel officials lie to us. We've seen a
dirty disinformation dossier used as the basis for four PISA
(16:38):
warrants to spy on candidate Trump and then President Trump.
We've seen enough double standard, top secret classified information, the
servers of Hillary Clinton, four locations, top secret classified information,
Joe Biden, but only mar Alago gets rated. And thankfully
a judge in Florida said, sorry, but the appointment of
(16:59):
Jack Smith was not constitutional due to the appointments clause.
And and that should wipe out every case he was
involved in.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
The end of sentence.
Speaker 5 (17:08):
Oh, no question. And and you know another than too shan.
You know, you look at Senator Murphy here in Connecticut.
You know he's the first one, you know, anytime there's
this mass shooting, he's out there. He wants the ban guns.
But yet all he said with this was you know,
he's he's he doesn't condone it. You know he should be.
You know, if God forbid, and I mean it's in
the bottom of my heart, God forbid. If it was
(17:30):
somebody like Maxine Waters, he'd be jumping on the soapbox
and in Washington saying we got to take every gun
away from every American and and here they are doing nothing.
It just shows it's all smoking mirrors from the Democratic parties.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
It really just to me is just sad on so
many different levels. And you know, we've got a country
at this point we've got to save here. We've got
a country that I've never been this afraid for the
state this cones in. I can't believe the clear and
present danger that Joe Biden has created at our border.
(18:06):
I can't believe the disaster of his economy. But remember,
inflation is transitory. Remember the border is secure, and the
border is closed. Remember, you know, deep fund dismantled, no
bail laws, Kamala Harris tweeting out a bail fund, you know,
right after Minneapolis police precinct has burned to the ground.
(18:28):
I mean, we're living in very distorted, ugly troubled times.
Never mind that Joe's surrendered in the war on against
radical Islamic terrorism will help Israel defend itself, but we
won't support their effort to win their war against the
radical terrorists that killed twelve hundred people, took hundreds hostage.
(18:50):
It would have been the equivalent based their population side
extrapolated extrapolated out versus ours, that would have been forty
thousand dead Americans in a day. Really, you're not going
to fight that war to win that war. Well, we're
no longer the leader of the free world, and Joe surrendered.
So it's about America's standing in the world, our place
in the world. It's about energy, it's about borders, it's
(19:13):
about law and order. It's about the economy, It's about
all the above. There's so much at stake here, and
I've never felt a greater sense of urgency than in
my life as I'm feeling right now.
Speaker 3 (19:24):
I just haven't.
Speaker 5 (19:26):
Absolutely absolutely even here in Connecticut short, I mean, we're
casted to death. Are harder working people in Connecticut. You know,
we need we need Trump because it's not going to change.
We're paying taxes. But if we could save at the pumps.
If we can get our food bills to come down,
(19:46):
our stock markets to go up, our investments to go
up where they were. You know, this guy's talking about
you know, nine percent inflation when it was one point four.
He's clueless. But in Connecticut, Sean, we need Donald Trump.
And you know, obviously he's not gonna there's no reason
for him to come here because he's not gonna. They're
all gonna vote blue. It doesn't matter. But but where
(20:08):
I am in the valley in Connecticut, it's all hard
working Americans and we're all we're all ready and we're
we're all with Trump. But but we need him and
we need to continue to have your voice because you
are the voice of us. And uh, you know it's
important that that we everyone goes out there and votes, because,
like you said, this election, you know, it's not it's
not it's not slamb dunk.
Speaker 2 (20:30):
No, it's and I I cannot emphasize that enough. Don't
believe for a second this is over. We don't even
know who we're running against. Fully, we don't know. And
I know Linda doesn't get it. I've tried to explain
it to her. Actually called Stephen a Smith and asked
him if he would try to explain it to her,
(20:51):
And he's gonna try.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
But you know, we have to act like we're behind,
and it's that simple.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
And it's a football game, and there's two minutes left
in the game, you know else, and we have.
Speaker 3 (21:01):
No time out.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
I'll tell you in a second, Oh tell me. You
have no timeouts. You're on your own twenty. You got
to march down the field eighty yards. You got to
cross the plane and kick the extra point if you
want to win. You're down by six. Do you know
what that means?
Speaker 3 (21:16):
What I just said, it.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
Means I got to make a lot of dip, big dip,
lots of hoogis and sandwiches and things.
Speaker 6 (21:21):
You know, it's gonna be a very successful game.
Speaker 3 (21:23):
Big dip, big dip, big dip. Like artichokers, spinach. I'm
very popular at football parties. I've never I don't know,
I've never gone to one.
Speaker 4 (21:35):
I think you would find it very educational because you
will see I cheer at the right time.
Speaker 3 (21:40):
Because everyone else cheers. Right, That's exactly right.
Speaker 2 (21:44):
But in all seriousness, that's how you gotta look at this.
I'm very worried for our country. I'm worried for the
state of the world. We now are witnessing what what
a weak America means for the world. I mean, how
embarrassing is it. Come on, joe come on back to
the group, Joey, you know the Italian Prime Minister of
(22:04):
dragging him back or Barack Obama. And they weren't cheap
fake videos. They tried to call us liars and conspiracy theorists.
There was no editing of those videos. And then okay,
joe oh, let me grab your hand. Joey, come come
with me, Come with Barack. I'll put my arm around you.
We'll get you off the stage. I did most of
the talking anyway, because you're a cognitive mess. So I
(22:26):
saved your ass. But you know what, now he's underminding
him a big time. The stakes are high. I mean,
sixty one days from now, early voting begins in Pennsylvania
and we don't know who the Democratic candidate is. That's
unfair to the American people. This is why we shouldn't
have early voting. This is why we should have Election
(22:50):
Day and national holiday. This is why we should have
paper ballots. This is why proof of citizenship, which was
the same Act being debated last week, we discussed in
detail should be the law of the lend. Democrats don't
want any integrity measures. This is why you need voter
ID and signature verification. This is why you need updated
(23:11):
voter rolls, chain of custody controls, partisan observers, and every
precinct in the country watching the voting all day up close,
and the vote counting all night up close. But they
don't want that either. Wonder why why wouldn't they want
those measures. I think the answer is obvious. They think
it works in their favor not to have them. All right,
(23:33):
let's get back to our busy, busy, busy telephones. As
we say Hi to George. He's holding down the fort.
He's in the free state of Florida. You got to
be proud of your governor and your senator last night.
I thought they were both were phenomenal. What did you
think of Governor DeSantis and Senator Rubio. I thought they
were both great.
Speaker 6 (23:53):
Oh, they did a wonderful job. Sean, very very great.
There that's unity when that's what you know. They still
have their differences, but they all are focused on what
the main goal is to beat beat the Democrats come
in November, but thank you for having me on. Well,
first of all, I wanted to thank you for my
(24:15):
wife and I going out to dinner last month. You
picking up the tab. You're a man of your word.
I appreciated that.
Speaker 3 (24:22):
I did to dinner. Where'd you go?
Speaker 6 (24:24):
We went to a fine restaurant in Daytona and were
this that cats me out for the night. We had
the best meal, the best steak, surf and turf and
everything on your on your dime.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
If you had a great night, and I've contributed a
little to that, that makes me feel great.
Speaker 3 (24:43):
I'm glad you deserve it.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
I hope you had the best meal of your life
and I got I hope you got you know, the
most expensive menu item out.
Speaker 3 (24:52):
There with white pepper inside.
Speaker 2 (24:58):
It's an inside joe. Anyway, what's on your mind? Mind, friend,
I'm glad you got hat a great time.
Speaker 6 (25:03):
Well, well, my wife and I are just we're sitting
there watching the convention last night, and I don't know
if you remember our conversation from the last month. I
was telling you where the president needs to show his
personal side, and when Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Laura Trump
got on there and told them about their personal time
(25:23):
with Donald Trump. My wife said, yes, like wash rinse repeat,
that is going to move the dials. Sean. So I'm like,
this whole week, I've been emotional extremes. First of all,
that the debate, that debate is I'm like, finally, finally
the world knows what Seawan knows. This president been variously
(25:45):
then carried by this group. And I think eighty percent
of the world now who does not watch conservative radio
realize that they're in the middle of the Truman Show
where they have been victimized by the meet Yeah, and
you know, and and and along with uh uh with Truman,
(26:07):
we've been victimized, and they're waking up and with with
Elon Musk. Now with the Twitter and all that stuff
is a new time.
Speaker 2 (26:15):
In other way, how about Elon committing forty five dollars
a month for get out the vote efforts for Donald J.
Speaker 3 (26:23):
Trump? How cool is that?
Speaker 6 (26:26):
It's a game changer. We talked I talked to you
about that a few months ago about him being a
game changer with that. But then here we come with
with on Saturday, which that's where it was like, oh
my goodness, as as uh as uh Sarah hu could
be was saying that, you know, God has not finished
with Donald Trump yet on this side of heaven. And
I was so glad, but also with the oversight, I
(26:50):
wanted me of a Banghazi moment Sean where basically the
cost of the bureaucratic bungling, you know, uh, and that
Sir Stevens saw that he needed more resources and because
of our last few presidents, Ago wanted to make appear
that he's conquered the isis things. He didn't get the
(27:12):
resources that he needed and what happened people got killed
and and and then the response on Saturday is it
was like you need to be they need to get
shot at first before the response. So the democratic response
to all this stuff is an appeasement or do not
do not attack until we attacked upon and so it
(27:33):
was just a blust, the blunder, a big blunder. But
thankfully our presidents alive. And then this this, this convention,
is this this this growing and the unity and and
this the where we're showing our president. The president when
he went up and said, fight by fight, we all
(27:54):
know what our president is capable of, so he can
pull back.
Speaker 3 (27:57):
And really, by the way, photograph.
Speaker 2 (28:00):
Photographers photographers fear that that Trump photo is propaganda. Now
that's called truth in reality. It's gonna wrap things up
at today, we have Hannity Tonight, DA Pree RNZ Convention
in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. We'll be joined by Eric Trump, Senator
Marco Rubio, Governor Ron DeSantis. Tonight, Laura Ingram, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Judge,
(28:23):
Jennine Piro, Ronnie Jackson, Joe Kanja, Paul Manafort, SAT You
DVR Hannity nine Eastern from the RNC in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
We'll see you tonight back here tomorrow. Thank you for
making this show possible.
Stay right here for our final news round up and
information overload.
Speaker 2 (00:05):
All right, News round Up and information overload. Our toll free,
our numbers eight hundred and nine to four one sean
if you want to be a part of the program.
So as Joe Biden, every day he survives, gets closer
to locking in the three nine hundred delegates of the
four thousand available, and as people like Adam Schiff have
now joined the choir of Democrats calling for Biden to
(00:27):
step aside, Well what does this mean? I don't think
anybody can predict with any sense of accuracy how this
plays out.
Speaker 3 (00:36):
If I had to guess, I don't know.
Speaker 2 (00:38):
Maybe I think Joe is a very good chance of survival,
but I would not be at all surprised if, in fact,
Kamala Harris or somebody else would to replace him. Where
are we in terms of the race, Well, that's where
our friends, our posters come in. Matt Towery Insider Advantage.
Robert Kahley Trafalgar Group Real Clear Politics has pointed out
(01:01):
that they were the two most accurate pollsters in the
last two presidential election cycles. Welcome back both of you
to the program.
Speaker 3 (01:11):
Appreciate you being with us.
Speaker 1 (01:13):
Thank you. Happy to be with you.
Speaker 3 (01:15):
All right, Matt, let me start with you.
Speaker 2 (01:17):
I saw your poll Fox five Atlanta, but we have
more details of this. Biden's up by three in Georgia.
But what surprised me the most is Kamala Harris, He's
down by ten against Donald Trump. I would assume that
if they're doing their own polling, internal polls, that the
Biden administration has to know this and Democrats have to
(01:39):
know this, do they not, Matt.
Speaker 1 (01:40):
Towery Sean, I have to tell you, in every one
of these states the trend was the same. Harris was
running about ten points below Biden in a ballot test
against Trump. But even more important, I will say this,
we have not seeing some big bump for Trump after
the almost tragic shooting. But it maybe be seen in
(02:03):
another way, the enthusiasm gap. In other words, we ask
people how enthusiastic they are about voting in November, eighty
to fifty five Republican in Florida, eighty five to fifty
nine Republican in Arizona, Nevada, it's eighty two sixty. Pennsylvania
it's fifty nine, seventy five to fifty nine. And then
(02:24):
in Georgia, it's eighty nine fifty two. If voters are
that unenthusiastic and they have no other alternative than their
vice president, they're going to have to stick with Biden,
and they're going to have to find a way some
way to make their voters get out to the polls
in big numbers in November, or these polling numbers have
given you could be much higher for Trump.
Speaker 2 (02:45):
Let's get your take. Robert Cahelly, and I know you've
been out in the field as well. What are your
poll numbers. What do you beginning to see?
Speaker 4 (02:52):
Well, Wisconsin and we've we've based ours on the people
who have qualified to be on their ballots, so we
didn't do just head to head. We included all the
others that are Wisconsin, we have Trump up by two
point six at forty five point six to forty three
(03:12):
point zero. And in Michigan we have Trump up by
two point one forty five point one to forty three.
And so what we're seeing is it's kind of what
Matt's talking about. But I think the real phenomenon is
we've seen people drop off of Kennedy and move to undecided. Now,
(03:38):
in my experience, they're you know what we call our
hidden Trump voters are often answering undecided at this point.
So I just think that that dropping people who have
gone Kennedy to undecided tend to be the ones that
are on the more conservative side of things. So I
(03:58):
think what's happening is just they're considering doing something different.
But you know, this case is really kind of baked.
I mean, it's We've just seen people who think Biden's
incomfident who are still voting for him, who think that
Trump was guilty of the charges, but are still voting
for Trump. And so I think the assassination, as much
(04:20):
as it does drive h interest in voting, I just
don't know that it's affecting the top lines, but I
do like what it does for the enthusiasm. We measure
enthusiasm well differently, but we are definitely seeing a huge
uh difference in enthusiasm.
Speaker 2 (04:38):
Uh explain, explain the difference in how you measure enthusiasm.
Speaker 4 (04:43):
Well, we make it. We have like six different categories
of enthusiasm. I think Matt does three, kind of like
Matt Twift doing it a little better. I think it's simpler,
but very interested and very very you know, likely to vote.
We're finding the people that are for Trumps are just
I mean, it's like in the eighties and ninety percent
(05:07):
of their willingness participate and then kind of gonna vote, likely,
you gonna vote, might vote. We find those kind of
moves toward Biden and those people are in most cases
well blow sixties. So it is there's just that enthusiasm
(05:27):
gap will effect turnout, and it doesn't just affect turnout,
in effects the number of people who want to walk doors,
the number of people who want to make calls. It
filters down to the entire thing. And the Democrats incredible
get out the vote depends on people being a little enthusiastic,
So I think effects more than election day.
Speaker 2 (05:49):
Well, what are you seeing as it relates to Kamala Harris?
Are you seeing what Matt is?
Speaker 4 (05:54):
Okay, we didn't measure Kamala Harris because this point after
the attempt to say station Trump, that was kind of
off the headlines. So we did measure that. We did,
like I said, a little differently, and we will have
North Carolina tomorrow, so that was kind.
Speaker 2 (06:10):
Of So is is all of your polling post assassination attempt?
Speaker 3 (06:15):
Yes, sir, Yes, Okay, so.
Speaker 2 (06:17):
You don't see a discernible difference yet. Is it something
that maybe will take a little time to sink into
the consciousness of the American voters.
Speaker 4 (06:28):
I think it might. And the other thing I think
is just in looking the way that Trump has been
at the convention. If his convention speech is a departure
from his normal speech and a more uniting, uh you know,
a less just less normal Trump and and and kind
(06:48):
of maybe a new direction. I think that that, combined
with the attempted assassination could have a huge impact because
he thought. What I think that we'll find is that
people want to see that didn't like Trump, but this
has affected the way he thinks and maybe added agree
(07:11):
of humility or just a degree of appreciation, you know, just.
Speaker 2 (07:16):
I mean, well, maybe maybe it did a good job.
I'm just speculating here. I mean, because Donald Trump has
been so demonized by so many for so long, that
did it do a job of pointing out that, you know,
the dehumanizing efforts of the left over all these many years. Uh,
maybe it came home that hey, this guy is a father,
(07:38):
this guy is a human being. This guy is not
Adolph Hitler or evil as Joe Biden calls him, well.
Speaker 4 (07:47):
Think about it this way too. Another angle is people
who would have never tuned in to hear what Trump
had to say because they think they already know what
he's going to say and that they're kind of done
with him. This assassin, I said, is going to make
people want to hear what he has to say, and
so his message might be delivered to people whose ears
(08:08):
are usually closed to him, and I think it can
be very positive for him.
Speaker 3 (08:12):
Let's get your take on that, Matt Twery, Well, I.
Speaker 5 (08:15):
Have a couple of takes.
Speaker 1 (08:16):
First of all, I think the enthusiasm gap is a
bigger thing than we realized because really, in reality, we're
polling off of turnout models from the past, right, we
have to make predictions. If the gap continues, those turnout
models have to be adjusted as well, So it could
well be we tight. We pulld very tightly, Sean. We
were not like private posters for candidates or whatever. We
(08:37):
have to be very tight in what we do. I
think Trump has enjoyed an advantage post the shooting. I
think it could get much stronger after the convention, But
I will say conventions only give so much of a
boost and to Roberts point, a lot of the case
is baked in as to how people feel about these candidates.
There's only so much wiggle room to change minds. It's
a matter of who turns out and how big. And
(09:00):
I think the biggest bottom line of all this, poets
is the enthusiasm gap being almost twenty percent in most
of these states, which is unbelievable. And I'm shocked. And
these other people say they're going to vote. But if
they say they're enthused he asked about voting, they're really
going and that means you're going to have a stronger turnout.
If Trumps keep that going on in all of these
states and he's leading in everyone, he will definitely be elected.
Speaker 2 (09:24):
All right, So where does the race stand now? I mean,
the President's really been having a very good week in
my opinion. I'll start with you, Matt on this question.
Speaker 3 (09:34):
JD.
Speaker 2 (09:34):
Vans was selected. I had the first interview with him.
I will say this is one measurement. Ratings were through
the roof. Americans wanted to know more about JD.
Speaker 3 (09:45):
Vans.
Speaker 2 (09:46):
I asked every question that I could possibly think of.
I left nothing off the table, starting with his past
criticism of Donald Trump in twenty sixteen, even if going
as as far as to compare him to Headler, and
I thought he had very good answers for all those questions,
issues of abortion, issues involving women. I mean, we went
(10:10):
over every single source of potential controversy he may be facing,
and with what seemed like a lot of ease, he
was able to explain it all.
Speaker 1 (10:22):
Yeah. I mean that was a great interview, by the way,
and I think that Vance absolutely no harm to the
ticket whatsoever. That's the number one thing, do no harm.
It keeps the face enthused, it keeps everyone going. He's youthful.
I think that's going to potentially attract voters. And by
the way, Robert and I are both seeing these same
patterns that the youngest of voters are going to Trump
(10:44):
and so many of these states, which is reverses what
we've seen in the past. It's actually the folks in
the middle who are his biggest problem right now, and
the older voters are beginning to drift back to Trump.
But I think Vance is a strong selection for Trump politically.
I think he gives a future for the Republican Party,
and he seems to acquit himself very well, and he's
(11:04):
avoided this critical time period. You know, with the media,
they're just a rabbit in trying to attack anything that
boost Trump at all, and he's survived the last few days.
They've given their best shot, and it's had very little
effect on him in my opinion.
Speaker 3 (11:18):
Let's get your take Robert on the same question.
Speaker 4 (11:21):
Well, I think the one thing is any candidate is
not just judged on what they say after their announcements
vice president. Uh, it's basically their whole body of work,
things they've said before.
Speaker 5 (11:39):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (11:40):
And it's I think the media is they've already started
to kind of hone in on what he said right
after the shooting, uh and saying you know, he prematurely
blamed it and some of the other things he said
in the past about abortion. So I think they're gonna
they're gonna spend a lot of time on that.
Speaker 1 (11:57):
Uh.
Speaker 4 (11:57):
But But I still think as far as moving things forward,
and this is Trump's answer to there's a lot of
people who have had all they can take of identity politics.
And while everybody kept telling Trump picked this person, this person,
it's like Trump said, I can't say that I cannot
(12:20):
be against identity politics, and yet give into it to
a certain degree when it caused my running mate. And
I think that statement that he just found somebody who
fit ideologically that he thought had the credentials to be
president and he ignored.
Speaker 5 (12:37):
That other stuff.
Speaker 4 (12:38):
I think that's that's that's a statement that's gonna beople
are going to realize that he didn't give into any
of that or that pressure.
Speaker 2 (12:47):
And they were, what about this iconic photo? He just
gets shot in the ear and it did pierce his year.
He comes within a millimeter of death and he insists
on standing up, pumping his fist and shouting fight fight.
Speaker 3 (13:03):
To me, it's now iconic.
Speaker 2 (13:05):
And you know, compare that to this weak, frail, cognitive deteriorating,
you know, old man that's in the White House.
Speaker 3 (13:13):
Now, I mean, what a contrast in images? How big
is that going.
Speaker 5 (13:17):
To be question?
Speaker 4 (13:18):
I mean that photo is on the level of Bush
in the rubble with the megaphone. It really is. And
I think it will be seen that way. And this
movement of people that were in the middle in our
numbers back to undecided, not off of Trump, but from
(13:41):
Kennedy and others to undecided, I think in the end
will probably end up with Trump. I think we've got
a new crop of quote unquote hidden Trump voters that
are brand new Trump voters that aren't ready to say
so yet. So I think we're gonna see more movement,
and I think a convention speed that people are listening
(14:02):
to and higher numbers than ever cared what Trump had
to say. I can mantion feast that even the most
liberal networks will carry. It's going to go a long
way to consolidating that.
Speaker 2 (14:17):
Well, let me ask the last question, because there's a
pull out today. Sixty five percent of Democrats want Biden out.
Here's my question. Will he be the candidate? And I
got a run Matt Tower, Yes or no.
Speaker 1 (14:30):
There's no way that they can't pass over Harris and
she can't win. She's too far behind.
Speaker 2 (14:34):
So he will you that you predict he will be
he will remain the candidate?
Speaker 3 (14:38):
I do, Yes, What do you think, Robert.
Speaker 4 (14:42):
Short of him doing something really dumb between now and
his commission, I think he will.
Speaker 5 (14:46):
Be the candidate.
Speaker 2 (14:47):
Well, he could be one fall away or one really
horrible cognitive moment away from being replaced.
Speaker 3 (14:54):
I can't be.
Speaker 2 (14:55):
You have to add that caveat, and anything can happen,
and you know just what one hundred and ten days
from now, and again early voting starts in just a
mere sixty one days in Pennsylvania.
Speaker 3 (15:08):
Hey, listen, appreciate both of you.
Speaker 2 (15:09):
We'll have you on often before the election. All right,
back to our phones. Let's say hi to Paul Is
in Connecticut. Hey, Paul, welcome to Milwaukee. Glad you called sir.
Speaker 5 (15:20):
Hey Sean, thanks for taking my phone call. So here
in Connecticut, Seawan, you know, it's it's a it's tough
up here because you know, we are we're underrated here
because you know, we have we're out numbered and we
have a lot of Trump supporters, but our vote doesn't
(15:41):
count here. So it's difficult. And when you see what happened,
when you see what happened on Saturday, and you know,
you got to say to yourself, twenty six minutes, this
guy's walking around, Their spectators are staying, are are screaming
that there's a shooter on the room and nothing is done.
(16:02):
And then you got Joe Biden that comes out and says, well,
you know we're going to have a special council. No, no,
we've been down that road. We've seen your Special councils
withious dossier. We've seen them with.
Speaker 2 (16:16):
The Oh, we've seen it with a lot of cases.
I'm trying to help you out here because you're dead
on right what you're saying. You know, we've seen it
over and over again. We've seen the double standard. We've
seen the weaponization of our Justice Department. We've seen fifty
one former Intel officials lie to us. We've seen a
dirty disinformation dossier used as the basis for four PISA
(16:38):
warrants to spy on candidate Trump and then President Trump.
We've seen enough double standard, top secret classified information, the
servers of Hillary Clinton, four locations, top secret classified information,
Joe Biden, but only mar Alago gets rated. And thankfully
a judge in Florida said, sorry, but the appointment of
(16:59):
Jack Smith was not constitutional due to the appointments clause.
And and that should wipe out every case he was
involved in.
Speaker 3 (17:07):
The end of sentence.
Speaker 5 (17:08):
Oh, no question. And and you know another than too shan.
You know, you look at Senator Murphy here in Connecticut.
You know he's the first one, you know, anytime there's
this mass shooting, he's out there. He wants the ban guns.
But yet all he said with this was you know,
he's he's he doesn't condone it. You know he should be.
You know, if God forbid, and I mean it's in
the bottom of my heart, God forbid. If it was
(17:30):
somebody like Maxine Waters, he'd be jumping on the soapbox
and in Washington saying we got to take every gun
away from every American and and here they are doing nothing.
It just shows it's all smoking mirrors from the Democratic parties.
Speaker 2 (17:44):
It really just to me is just sad on so
many different levels. And you know, we've got a country
at this point we've got to save here. We've got
a country that I've never been this afraid for the
state this cones in. I can't believe the clear and
present danger that Joe Biden has created at our border.
(18:06):
I can't believe the disaster of his economy. But remember,
inflation is transitory. Remember the border is secure, and the
border is closed. Remember, you know, deep fund dismantled, no
bail laws, Kamala Harris tweeting out a bail fund, you know,
right after Minneapolis police precinct has burned to the ground.
(18:28):
I mean, we're living in very distorted, ugly troubled times.
Never mind that Joe's surrendered in the war on against
radical Islamic terrorism will help Israel defend itself, but we
won't support their effort to win their war against the
radical terrorists that killed twelve hundred people, took hundreds hostage.
(18:50):
It would have been the equivalent based their population side
extrapolated extrapolated out versus ours, that would have been forty
thousand dead Americans in a day. Really, you're not going
to fight that war to win that war. Well, we're
no longer the leader of the free world, and Joe surrendered.
So it's about America's standing in the world, our place
in the world. It's about energy, it's about borders, it's
(19:13):
about law and order. It's about the economy, It's about
all the above. There's so much at stake here, and
I've never felt a greater sense of urgency than in
my life as I'm feeling right now.
Speaker 3 (19:24):
I just haven't.
Speaker 5 (19:26):
Absolutely absolutely even here in Connecticut short, I mean, we're
casted to death. Are harder working people in Connecticut. You know,
we need we need Trump because it's not going to change.
We're paying taxes. But if we could save at the pumps.
If we can get our food bills to come down,
(19:46):
our stock markets to go up, our investments to go
up where they were. You know, this guy's talking about
you know, nine percent inflation when it was one point four.
He's clueless. But in Connecticut, Sean, we need Donald Trump.
And you know, obviously he's not gonna there's no reason
for him to come here because he's not gonna. They're
all gonna vote blue. It doesn't matter. But but where
(20:08):
I am in the valley in Connecticut, it's all hard
working Americans and we're all we're all ready and we're
we're all with Trump. But but we need him and
we need to continue to have your voice because you
are the voice of us. And uh, you know it's
important that that we everyone goes out there and votes, because,
like you said, this election, you know, it's not it's
not it's not slamb dunk.
Speaker 2 (20:30):
No, it's and I I cannot emphasize that enough. Don't
believe for a second this is over. We don't even
know who we're running against. Fully, we don't know. And
I know Linda doesn't get it. I've tried to explain
it to her. Actually called Stephen a Smith and asked
him if he would try to explain it to her,
(20:51):
And he's gonna try.
Speaker 3 (20:52):
But you know, we have to act like we're behind,
and it's that simple.
Speaker 2 (20:57):
And it's a football game, and there's two minutes left
in the game, you know else, and we have.
Speaker 3 (21:01):
No time out.
Speaker 2 (21:03):
I'll tell you in a second, Oh tell me. You
have no timeouts. You're on your own twenty. You got
to march down the field eighty yards. You got to
cross the plane and kick the extra point if you
want to win. You're down by six. Do you know
what that means?
Speaker 3 (21:16):
What I just said, it.
Speaker 2 (21:16):
Means I got to make a lot of dip, big dip,
lots of hoogis and sandwiches and things.
Speaker 6 (21:21):
You know, it's gonna be a very successful game.
Speaker 3 (21:23):
Big dip, big dip, big dip. Like artichokers, spinach. I'm
very popular at football parties. I've never I don't know,
I've never gone to one.
Speaker 4 (21:35):
I think you would find it very educational because you
will see I cheer at the right time.
Speaker 3 (21:40):
Because everyone else cheers. Right, That's exactly right.
Speaker 2 (21:44):
But in all seriousness, that's how you gotta look at this.
I'm very worried for our country. I'm worried for the
state of the world. We now are witnessing what what
a weak America means for the world. I mean, how
embarrassing is it. Come on, joe come on back to
the group, Joey, you know the Italian Prime Minister of
(22:04):
dragging him back or Barack Obama. And they weren't cheap
fake videos. They tried to call us liars and conspiracy theorists.
There was no editing of those videos. And then okay,
joe oh, let me grab your hand. Joey, come come
with me, Come with Barack. I'll put my arm around you.
We'll get you off the stage. I did most of
the talking anyway, because you're a cognitive mess. So I
(22:26):
saved your ass. But you know what, now he's underminding
him a big time. The stakes are high. I mean,
sixty one days from now, early voting begins in Pennsylvania
and we don't know who the Democratic candidate is. That's
unfair to the American people. This is why we shouldn't
have early voting. This is why we should have Election
(22:50):
Day and national holiday. This is why we should have
paper ballots. This is why proof of citizenship, which was
the same Act being debated last week, we discussed in
detail should be the law of the lend. Democrats don't
want any integrity measures. This is why you need voter
ID and signature verification. This is why you need updated
(23:11):
voter rolls, chain of custody controls, partisan observers, and every
precinct in the country watching the voting all day up close,
and the vote counting all night up close. But they
don't want that either. Wonder why why wouldn't they want
those measures. I think the answer is obvious. They think
it works in their favor not to have them. All right,
(23:33):
let's get back to our busy, busy, busy telephones. As
we say Hi to George. He's holding down the fort.
He's in the free state of Florida. You got to
be proud of your governor and your senator last night.
I thought they were both were phenomenal. What did you
think of Governor DeSantis and Senator Rubio. I thought they
were both great.
Speaker 6 (23:53):
Oh, they did a wonderful job. Sean, very very great.
There that's unity when that's what you know. They still
have their differences, but they all are focused on what
the main goal is to beat beat the Democrats come
in November, but thank you for having me on. Well,
first of all, I wanted to thank you for my
(24:15):
wife and I going out to dinner last month. You
picking up the tab. You're a man of your word.
I appreciated that.
Speaker 3 (24:22):
I did to dinner. Where'd you go?
Speaker 6 (24:24):
We went to a fine restaurant in Daytona and were
this that cats me out for the night. We had
the best meal, the best steak, surf and turf and
everything on your on your dime.
Speaker 2 (24:37):
If you had a great night, and I've contributed a
little to that, that makes me feel great.
Speaker 3 (24:43):
I'm glad you deserve it.
Speaker 2 (24:44):
I hope you had the best meal of your life
and I got I hope you got you know, the
most expensive menu item out.
Speaker 3 (24:52):
There with white pepper inside.
Speaker 2 (24:58):
It's an inside joe. Anyway, what's on your mind? Mind, friend,
I'm glad you got hat a great time.
Speaker 6 (25:03):
Well, well, my wife and I are just we're sitting
there watching the convention last night, and I don't know
if you remember our conversation from the last month. I
was telling you where the president needs to show his
personal side, and when Sarah Huckabee Sanders and Laura Trump
got on there and told them about their personal time
(25:23):
with Donald Trump. My wife said, yes, like wash rinse repeat,
that is going to move the dials. Sean. So I'm like,
this whole week, I've been emotional extremes. First of all,
that the debate, that debate is I'm like, finally, finally
the world knows what Seawan knows. This president been variously
(25:45):
then carried by this group. And I think eighty percent
of the world now who does not watch conservative radio
realize that they're in the middle of the Truman Show
where they have been victimized by the meet Yeah, and
you know, and and and along with uh uh with Truman,
(26:07):
we've been victimized, and they're waking up and with with
Elon Musk. Now with the Twitter and all that stuff
is a new time.
Speaker 2 (26:15):
In other way, how about Elon committing forty five dollars
a month for get out the vote efforts for Donald J.
Speaker 3 (26:23):
Trump? How cool is that?
Speaker 6 (26:26):
It's a game changer. We talked I talked to you
about that a few months ago about him being a
game changer with that. But then here we come with
with on Saturday, which that's where it was like, oh
my goodness, as as uh as uh Sarah hu could
be was saying that, you know, God has not finished
with Donald Trump yet on this side of heaven. And
I was so glad, but also with the oversight, I
(26:50):
wanted me of a Banghazi moment Sean where basically the
cost of the bureaucratic bungling, you know, uh, and that
Sir Stevens saw that he needed more resources and because
of our last few presidents, Ago wanted to make appear
that he's conquered the isis things. He didn't get the
(27:12):
resources that he needed and what happened people got killed
and and and then the response on Saturday is it
was like you need to be they need to get
shot at first before the response. So the democratic response
to all this stuff is an appeasement or do not
do not attack until we attacked upon and so it
(27:33):
was just a blust, the blunder, a big blunder. But
thankfully our presidents alive. And then this this, this convention,
is this this this growing and the unity and and
this the where we're showing our president. The president when
he went up and said, fight by fight, we all
(27:54):
know what our president is capable of, so he can
pull back.
Speaker 3 (27:57):
And really, by the way, photograph.
Speaker 2 (28:00):
Photographers photographers fear that that Trump photo is propaganda. Now
that's called truth in reality. It's gonna wrap things up
at today, we have Hannity Tonight, DA Pree RNZ Convention
in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. We'll be joined by Eric Trump, Senator
Marco Rubio, Governor Ron DeSantis. Tonight, Laura Ingram, Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Judge,
(28:23):
Jennine Piro, Ronnie Jackson, Joe Kanja, Paul Manafort, SAT You
DVR Hannity nine Eastern from the RNC in Milwaukee, Wisconsin.
We'll see you tonight back here tomorrow. Thank you for
making this show possible.
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Sean Hannity
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