November 25, 2022 • 40 mins
Bernie Fratto is in for Ben, is a post-Thanksgiving edition of the Ben Maller Show! Bernie starts off the second hour with a visit from Bryan Feldman from FOX in Las Vegas, to discuss the Raiders options after a failed season. Will the Black and Silver trade Derek Carr, or will they retool for next season and try to figure it out? All of that, and much more!
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Episode Transcript
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Speaker 1 (00:00):
Hey, thanks for listening to the Ben Maller Show podcast.
It's me Ben. Be sure to catch us live every
weeknight from two to six Eastern eleven pm the three
am Pacific right here on Fox Sports Radio. You can
find your local station for the Ben Maller Show over
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every night on the iHeartRadio app by searching FSR. You're
(00:26):
listening to Fox Sports Radio. Well you heard the man,
Ben Maller. Are well deserved night off. I'm Bernie Fratto.
We are broadcasting line from the Tirac dot com studios
here in Las Vegas. Tirac dot com. We'll help you
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Tirac dot com the way tire buying should be. We
(00:50):
waste no time. Let's go to our guests here. This
gentleman on our local Fox Sports affiliate here in Las
Vegas every Sunday morning at eight am, hosting Aunt Mine
and he's covered the Raiders intimately. He's been to every game.
Say hello to Brian Film and Brian thanks for staying up.
Played Buddy, always a pleasure, Bernie, So let's starve right
(01:11):
into it, buddy. Here's the situation. On a scale of
one to ten. How shocked were you when Mark Davis,
the owner of the Raiders, said that Josh McDaniels will
be back and quote, he's doing a fantastic job. What
was your reaction? You know, Bernie, I'm not shocked at
all that he's going to be back. I'm definitely shocked
(01:31):
that he says he's doing a good job and singing
his accolades. That's the surprising part about it. The quote
where he said Rome wasn't built in the day. You
just kind of shake your head. Mark Davis is not
a stupid man. That was a stupid quote. And you know,
but I'm not surprised, Bernie, based on a lot of circumstances.
(01:52):
Josh McDaniel is going to be here this year, and
my guess is at least through next year. Well, I'm
gonna agreement with you. I I should have rephrased it.
I'm not shocked he's coming back. I tend to think
Mark's a little cash poor and he's not wanting to
continue paying ex coaches, right, and then the buyout's pretty big.
The vote of confidence was odd. But you're right, he's
(02:12):
not stupid, but that was odd given the fact. Brian,
here's the thing that I don't understand. How are the
Raiders getting away with this narrative. They made the playoffs
last year and now they're supposed to be rebuilding. I
don't get it. Would you know, lay that on for
the folks. What's your impression of that statement? Well, it's funny. Mark,
excuse me. Josh McDaniel would have a big problem with that, Bernie,
(02:33):
because he refuses to use the term rebuilding. He says
that they are building, and that's what he says in
all of his press conferences. And you know, Bernie, the
take on the Raiders right now is, you know, and
I think everyone feels the same way. It's it's surprising.
This is a team that had to win their last
four games to make the postseason last year, all kinds
(02:56):
of controversy, starting with Mark Rudin of course, the very
unfortunate tragedy with the Henry Ruggs ordeal. And then you
know Rich Masacci who comes in, he's beloved, everyone likes him,
and they win four straight games to make the playoffs,
and then they give a great showing in Cincinnati against
the Bagels. So everyone expected Josh McDaniel was supposed to
(03:17):
be hired to elevate this team to the next level.
Not about rebuilding or building. This team has gone completely backwards.
That are stuck in the mud. Horrible coaching decision. And
yet this regardless of what Raider Nation feels, Bernie Josh
McDaniel good a stick around for exactly the reason he said,
Mark Davis just does not have that much money. He's
(03:39):
not as rich as some of the other owners. He
doesn't have the money to pay off the Gruden settlement
and then also pay off Josh McDaniels. He fires him
in addition to a new head coach, it's not going
to happen. Talking with Brian Fellman, our local Fox Sports
radio affiliate here in Las Vegas, hosts on a line
every Sunday morning here at eight am, covers the Raiders
(03:59):
been credential for years. So let's get to the elephant
of the room, Brian, this is important. People like Derek Carr,
but he's been here eight years, never won a playoff game.
You think Derek Carr is back with the Raiders in
twenty twenty three. You know, Bernie straight out, it's hard
to say, I'm going to go out and say no,
he's not. You know, his latest contract extension carries a
(04:22):
sixty point two million dollars of potential guarantees, but only
twenty five of it twenty five million at signing. You know.
To me, the only way I see them not moving
on from Derek Carr is if they string some wins together,
because that would not get a top draft picked, and
they would have to they would not be able to
(04:43):
get one of those top two b's in the draft.
I mean, right now, this is a perfect situation if
they if they can move in before February, say let
go of him, get a bridge QB and then get
one of those top twobs in the bass and Bryce
young a C. J. Strout, Will levis one of those guys.
But I think Bernie, I'm gonna say yes, they are
going to move on from Derek Carr. It feels like
(05:03):
there's gonna be some sort of fall guys since we
now know it's not going to be Josh McDaniels. Again,
these are the things that are blowing in the wind
with the echo chamber, and people are really sort of
split on Derek Carr. They like him, but he's not
that transcendent quarterback that they wish he was, which begs
the second question, Brian, what's the current relationship between Davante
(05:26):
Adams and the team and Derek Carr? And how would
that future look? Because Davante Adams came here to be
with Derek Carr, how will he react if Derek Carr
is gone. It's very interesting, Bernie, and I can't see
them with what they just did and gave Davante Adams,
you know, two they gave away two first round rap
picks this last rap. I just don't see a movie answer.
(05:48):
I think Derek Carr and Davante Adams's relationship is still decent.
They're friends, college friends, They've had a lot of success
together at the collegiate level. And Davante Adams next game
is probably going to be over thousand yards receiving for
the season. He's got ten touchdowns, He's not having a
bad year. But again, you know, Bertie, it's it's it's
the front office. It's you know, Josh McDaniel and Dave Ziegler.
(06:11):
You know, they're they're a package deal, and you're looking
at to me. I would not be shocked if we're
having this conversation at this time next year. Will Josh
McDaniels still be around for the twenty twenty four seasons, because,
as shocking as that might sound, everyone because of financial
you know, finances, that's a possibility. Well, let me ask
(06:33):
you a question. The Raiders head to Seattle Sunday, forget
that game. Let's let's just look at the remaining seven
games or what are the seven games left? I believe, Yeah,
My question is where do you expect the Raiders to
go from here? In terms of you know, I said
they'd be eight and nine and seven and ten. I'm
gonna explain why in about fifteen minutes. What do you expecting?
(06:56):
How do you expect him to finish down the stretch?
Because some of the comments made at the podium, you've
been in the locker room after the games, You've been
to the press conferences. When Derek Carr gets up there
and cries and says he's disappointed that not everybody in
the room seems bought in, that's a pretty damning statement.
How does that go over in the locker room? So
I guess I'm asking sort of three questions here, how
did that go over in the locker room? What's their relationship?
(07:17):
And what do you expect the Raiders to do between
now and the end of the year. I think everyone
was a little bit perplexed when Derek Carr broke down
in the press conference, and you know, and Josh McDaniel
want asked about her. I don't know, why are you
gonna have to ask Derek? That was a little disconcerting. So,
you know, I think that I don't think in the
locker room, you know, anyone gets like points a finger
(07:40):
at Derek Carr. I think there's this array all over
the place, Bernie, and I think that you know, people
will say, and you know, at least on the surface,
they are all going to say, well, that just shows
how much he cares about this team. I don't know.
I think, you know, maybe there's some whispering behind the scenes,
nothing that we can see. It seems like he still
has you know, he still has the team. You know,
(08:00):
he still has the team more or less behind him.
You know, the question is Kenny do the job or not? Well,
that's that's really the question. And Brian I covered you
in sixteen lines back in oh eight, and they didn't
are nearly as much dirty laundry as this team seems
the air now you just see the body language in
the attitude. So again, the Raiders are currently three and seven.
(08:21):
Is that correct? The three and seven? Is that direct? Okay?
So they've got seven games left, there are four and
a half point underdog at Seattle Sunday. Where do you
expect the Raiders? And this your most optimistic answer, what's
the Raiders record at the end of the year. Wow, Bernie,
you know three wins right now? Looking at the remaining
(08:42):
seven games on the schedule, I see three more wins
if things go perfectly for him. So I see him
going three and four. That would give him six total
wins on the season. Bernie, And right now, I think
that's a fair assessment. I think it's an honest answer
because he's seven and ten and eaton nine. I predicted
(09:02):
back in last Argust they have to go five and
two or four and three, and I don't see that.
Let's talk about the Raiders defense, the real elephant in
the room, and they bring over Chandler Jones. He's been
a disappointment in terms of production. Why have the Raiders?
I mean what's the narrative inside the four walls about
that defense, which is really the biggest issue. Well, you know,
(09:24):
you you you hit the nail on the head right
off the beginning. Chandler Jones to be on the you know,
you know, everyone looked at him being on the other
side of Max Crosby. Is the Raiders are going to
have one of the most dominating pass rushes in the
National Football League, and teams are going to have to
be able to run the ball against them because it's
going to be the quarterback's going to have, you know,
a very short window to get the ball out that
(09:45):
it just hasn't been the case. Max Crossley's played decently,
he signed a big contract in the offseason. I think
he's a part of this Raiders future. I think Chandler
Jones is a head scratcher, but I think a big
part of the defense is Bernie is not just help.
I'm not going to blame it on that, but I
do think the secondary, I think, you know, you just
don't have really any leaders back there on the secondary.
(10:06):
You know, starting the season back there, you were looking
at a second year player as being the guy who
was going to leave the secondary that's a problem, as
you know that your last line of defense. But I
really think there's a lot more too at Bernie. I
think that you know, health, yes, has been an issue,
but I think all the way around, to me, the
most the brightest spot in the defense last year was
(10:27):
Denzel Perryman, who really seemed to came in his own,
come into his own coming over from Carolina. He's had
some health issues, but he's healthy. He shores up that defense,
and he's a really good run stopper. But I think
their last line of defense, Bernie, the secondary is something
that's going to have to be a focus. And I
know you're talking about the defense, but to me, the
glaring weakness of this team all year has been the
play of the offensive line. I don't know how many
(10:49):
different combinations they have tried in that offensive line, but
nothing whatsoever has worked right. Clearly, that was the issue.
At an end of the season, the thought was the
pass rush would be enough to save a bad secondary.
I never believed it. But all right, Brian, keep your
ear to the ground, and if there's any major news,
we'll get you back on. We'll see what January brings.
(11:09):
I gotta believe there's going to be some news, all right.
Thanks Brian. Hey, Happy Thanksgiving to you and everyone out
to Bernie. I appreciate it. Thanks, thanks Buddy. That's Brian Feldman,
the host of Autoline here at our Fox Sports a
Philly covers the Raiders. He's at all the press conferences
in the locker room after games. I'm gonna do a
couple of games myself of credential as well. But Brian
is this is really kind of one of his more
(11:31):
full time endeavors. All right? Why? Why is this happening
to the Raiders? I talked about this last August and
I shared with you something called the Pythagorean theorem, and
it's coming true in ways that even I wouldn't have
imagined in the most dramatic fashion. We will tell you
(11:52):
why this is happening to the Raiders and how what
happened last year set up to happen this year. I'm
Bernie Faddle Company Alive from Las Vegas, Fox Sports Radio Studios,
the Tirek dot Com Studios. Keep it locked right here.
You're listening to the Ben Maller Show on Fox Sports Radio.
He's Mike Carmen. I'm Dan Bayer We have a brand
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(12:17):
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(12:39):
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(13:01):
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(13:24):
back to a man who was filling in for Big Ben.
It's Bernie Frado. Pretty fancy math there, Brian. I try Bernie.
Speaking of math last August, after reflecting upon the Raiders
season in twenty twenty one, I said, could just be
bad news for the Raiders heading into twenty twenty two.
(13:46):
And let me explain why. Let me reset this. Many
many years ago, gentlemen by the name of Bill James
introduced a concept called a Pythagorean theorem and he did
it in baseball. Okay, started with baseball, and it had
to do that. It had to do with speculating about
a baseball team's future for performance based on the run
(14:06):
scored and they allowed as it correlates to a winning percentage.
And there's an actual formula to this, while the football
formula was created as well. And there's some definite lessons
to take from what this theory is. And I mentioned
it last August. Let's revisit it okay. So let's start
by applying the Pythagorum theorem to the Raiders and compare
(14:27):
it from twenty one season to this season. See the
Raiders when ten and seven during the regular season in
twenty twenty one. This is the important part. They scored
only three hundred and seventy four points while allowing four
hundred and thirty nine points. That means they were minus
sixty five and point differential. So while the Raiders went
(14:48):
ten and seven, the Pythagorean theorem suggests that, based on
that point differential deficit, the Raiders should have only won
six point nine games. Will call it set and lost
ten games. And other words, the Raiders lost three more
games than they should have based on the formula. Check
(15:09):
that I must mouthed, they won three more games last
year than they should have. Here's where it's gets interesting.
Now interesting to follow along. Try that again in English?
Last time I run a tongue from that place. Here's
where it gets interesting. I'll follow along. I'll justify this.
See when you look at all the teams going back
sixteen years, they won two or more games than they
(15:29):
should have based on the Pythagoran theorem. Based on the
point differential. And remember the Raiders won three more than
they should have, not two more, and how that correlated
to the next season in terms of meeting that season's
NFL win totals, you get the following If a team
overachieved their prior year in the regular season, and they
(15:50):
won two or more games based on the Pythagoran theorem
than they should have, they typically go they're under their
total the following season. And this is not just some
small sample. In sixteen years, there have been thirty one
such teams. And at the beginning of the year, if
you faded the Raiders to go under their win total,
(16:12):
which I believe was seven and a half or eight,
those thirty one teams that had had that same situation before,
if you'd have faded them, you'd have gone twenty four
and seven by betting the end of the following season. Now,
all of those thirty one teams, twenty one of them
had won three or fewer games the following season versus
(16:33):
what they won the previous season. Only three of those
teams actually won more games, one of more of the
Pittsburgh Steelers. But these are basically flukes. Okay, Other other
teams like the Packers and Falcons that overachieved and by
the way that you know the Packers are having some
of those same situations this year. By the way, the
(16:56):
Raiders total was under eight and a half. I apologize.
So what happened was is that even though the Raiders
brought into Vante Adams and there's all kinds of hype
the Raiders, as Brian just mentioned, it was true. This
is one of their other issues pro football, I think
pro football focused rated. The Raiders offensive line is the
(17:17):
worst in the NFL. And when you add that to
the fact the Raiders scored sixty five more points or
sixty five points fewer than they actually scored last year,
or you know, they scored sixty five points fewer than
what they actually allowed. That all added up to the
Raiders winning three more games than they should have. So really,
last year, the Raiders should have been seven and ten.
(17:40):
Not only that, the Raiders went seven and two straight
up and one score games last year. How many what
does that happen this year? I think they're what on
in five in one score games. Also, the Raiders have
blown three seventeen point leads this year and the first
sixty two years of their existence. They only did that
five times. They've done it three times in the first
eight weeks this season. So when you look at the
(18:04):
Raiders and their schedule, where you say, well, they got
a chance to win these games. Texans, they did win, Jaguars,
they lost Seahawks beginning of the season that was projected
as a possible win. They're heading their Sunday, They're a
four point underdog. Not so sure. They still have the
Steelers and Patriots on the docket. Do you really think
the Raiders are better than those teams? So the long
and short of it is, the Raiders were an excellent
(18:25):
candidate to fall prey to the Pythagorean theorem, and they're
doing it. They're three and seven this year. Best case scenario,
maybe they go seven and ten. They'd have to go
four and three down the stretch to go seven and ten.
And I still got the Chiefs one more time. I
believe that. See they've got I just mentioned you got
(18:45):
the Seahawks, you got the Steelers, you got the Patriots,
you got the forty nine ers. On New Year's Day,
you tell me if you think they can go four
and three down the stretch. And let's take this one
step further, teams are typically win more games than their
numbers are just likely suggest that they had very good
fortune in those games. When the Raiders went what seven
(19:06):
and one or seven and two against in one score
games last year, and the higher number of those close
games that you win the year before due to good
fortune typically means you're going to regress back to the
mean the following season. Right, the Raiders frankly had an
extreme amount of luck when it mattered a lot in
(19:28):
twenty twenty one, which enabled him to have a bit
of a Fhaghazi record of ten at seven. Now, let's
compare this data like I mentioned to the thirty one
teams who overachieved by a minimum of two games, and
look at the teams who won four or more close
games than they lost. The Raiders won five more games
(19:48):
than they lost in close and find out those teams
went under the win season total to the tune of
nineteen and four. So out of the twenty three teams,
that not only Okay, we've talked about the point differential
as an issue. The other issue is one score games.
And if the spread was you won three or more
(20:09):
one score games and you lost, so so if you
win four and one and one score games, you qualify
for the stat where the Raiders won seven and two
and one score games last year, which means their differential
was five. They won five more games than they lost
that were one score games. The twenty three teams that
did that same thing the following season, they went under
their win total nineteen out of twenty three times. Three
(20:33):
of the four teams they won four or more games
that they lost during the regular season, the Raiders, the Steelers,
and the Falcons, So if you look at the Steelers,
they're under five hundred as well. They had the same
situation last year, seven and one straight up in those
one score games, the Falcons six and two straight up.
They're starting to come back to earth, which means this
(20:54):
isn't the only the only team. This is happening too. Again,
the concept is fairly simple. The Raiders were ten and
seven last year. The problem is is that they gave
up sixty five more points than they scored, and by
the Pythagorean theorem, that leads you to believe that they
should have won seven games last year, not ten, And
(21:17):
because they overachieved by three and the averages two, that
was almost a sure factor that what happened to them
last year could happen to them again this year. In
terms of regressing back to the mean, the Raiders will
be lucky to go seven and ten this year. Add
to that to the fact they were seven and two
and one score games five more one score wins then
(21:40):
they lost. This typical spread is three. If you had
that good fortune, it almost certainly reverses. Add that to
the fact that the Raiders, by Pro Football Focus, the
worst offensive line in football. You know, they bring in
a pass rusher from Arizona that has not done well,
Derek cars having a rough year. Now why Davante Adams
(22:03):
has some decent numbers. Now the numbers are a little deceiving.
He could go over a thousand yards receiving this week
against Seattle. It has not translated to wins. So it's
been a little nebulous. It hasn't exactly been something where
that you could really count on. And the Raiders three
seventeen point leads this year that they lost. That's only
(22:23):
happened five times in sixty years, now three times in
eight weeks. Add it all up, and the Pythagorean theorem
doesn't lie. It's not just the Raiders. I'm not picking
on the Raiders. It's just that the math tells us
that because of what happened last year, it was unlikely
to have lightning strike twice. And what is happening now,
in addition to all the things you're seeing on the field,
(22:43):
is the math equation of this model is showing up
in a big way. I said the Raiders will go
seven and ten or eight nine in the beginning of
the year. They may not even do that. We shall see.
There's still seven games left left coming up. Let's dive
into college football. We typically look bad. There were some
winners and some losers last week. We've got some big
games coming up this weekend. Lettey who's poised to make
(23:06):
some noise? And who blew it? And on. They're playing
for consolation prizes. But first let's go to the man
who oftenss you only live once, but if you do
it right, one should be enough. It's Brian Philly with
the ladies. Thank you, Bernie. We'll talk. There was one
Marquee college football game yesterday and one team did blow it.
We'll get to that in a moment. But as far
as what happened regarding the NFL those three games on Thanksgiving,
(23:28):
the last one to wrap up the game, the Vikings
found a way to power through against the Patriots thirty
three to twenty six, Kirk Cousins throwing for two hundred
ninety nine yards have those three touchdowns. The one that
was most significant came to Adam Feeling on the receiving
end of what would be the go ahead score with
just under ten minutes to go in the fourth quarter.
The Cowboys up end the Giants twenty eight to twenty,
(23:51):
Dallas scoring fourteen points in that third quarter. Dalton Scholtz
goot two scores and there were three touchdown catches by
Dallas tight ends in the game. And now Dallas is
in second in the NFC East, a game ahead of
the Giants. Everybody's looking up to the Eagles as they
lead the NFC East at nine and one. Overall, the
(24:11):
Bills get it done against the Lions twenty eight to
twenty five. That Tyler Bass time breaking forty five yard
field goal was good to or from from forty five
yards out two seconds left, and that lifted the Bills
late against the Lions, ending their three game winning streak.
Now we go to what happened in Oxford, Mississippi College
(24:32):
football and Mississippi State held on against Old Miss, the
number twenty ranked team in the country, twenty four to
twenty two to win the Egg Bowl, one of the
most under underrated rivalries in the country. And after the game,
everybody the media was going to Lane Kiff and Old
missus head coach to figure out more about what are
his plans for next season after the rumors about him
(24:54):
going to Omburn. He said, as if now he's staying
in Oxford and that's the plan moving forward as far
as college. But on the basketball slate, we did have
a ton of games on Thanksgiving, including number six gone
Zaga winning convincingly against Portland State one o two to
seventy eight as Zags Malachi Smith the guard at twenty
(25:16):
three points. A win for Number eight Duke fifty four
to fifty one against Oregon State that came in come
back fashion as the Beavers blew a lead late. Number
three Kansas holds on late in overtime against Wisconsin sixty
nine to sixty eight. So the Jayhawks are now out
to six and ozo on the season, and number one
North Carolina is out to five and oh They had
(25:38):
a hard time though against Portland eighty one to eighty
excuse me, eighty nine to eighty one. The Heels win
there in a game that was by separated by single digits.
And lastly, Bernie, number eighteen Alabama wins by double digits
against number twelve Michigan State eighty one to seventy. Obviously,
there's a lot more time for college basketball to figure
(26:00):
itself out, but as I send it back to you,
we're getting to the end of the college football season
and there's a lot to still get figured out. All right,
thanks Brian. We're gonna get to some crowd stuffs and
winners and losers. And by the way, a little later
in the show is Tom Brady and Trouble. I'll explain
what's going on there, but first let's go out to
the phones. We're joined by Emma and Olympia. Emma, how
(26:21):
are you, buddy? Happy Thanksgiving? Same to you, Bernie. I
hope you had a good, good day, you know, enjoying
the turkey and the football very much. Still, what a
you got in your mind to day? I want to
talk about the Raiders and this is a thing that
I was completely wrong about because I had them at
the start of the year going ten and seven. I
believe in you know, going second in that division, and
(26:44):
obviously they're not gonna do that. It's very unlikely. It's
so possible. What's not gonna happen because it's an offend
of their games. And I just think a lot of
this has to do with the hire of Josh McDaniels.
I know a couple of weeks ago and you said
this all the time, and I you know, agreed with
you back in January when you put this out there
in the first place, that rich for Sauchi should just
(27:06):
he never should like West, he should have been the
head coach. He used all that like adversity last year
that Raiders had to overcome and deal with. He did
a great job in that locker room, leading him to
the playoffs. I don't know why he ever left. And well,
Mark Davis went big name hunting. Uh. It wasn't Besachi's choice.
He did interview for the job, he was given a
courtesy interview, but all along it looks like Mark Davis
(27:28):
was going for a big name so sad so I
was on Twitter early. I don't know if he saw
this though. With mL Times. You know, obviously we had
the Malor Militia, a very big name the sports radio
fan base, probably the biggest in the business, and I was,
you know, you have a pretty loyal fan base too,
so I was kind of thinking, I'm like, there's something
(27:51):
we could do with this. And I'm looking at synonyms
on the internet for fans and obviously I'm not gonna
take fanatics, that's the friendly fanatics. So the Fratto aficionados
is are coming coming up with, or the efficionados of Fratto.
I don't know if you could adopt any of those.
I know mL Times that baller Bernie would work too.
Are the Bernie ballers? Excuse me? So just trying to
(28:12):
help you out there, trying to get you some more fames,
all right, So thanks, first, thanks for your call, appreciate that.
I hope you had a good Thanksgiving. I'm going to
leave that up to you guys. I'll be on again
tomorrow night, Bernie Fratto Show eleven pm Pacific, two am Saturday,
and of course eleven pm so three am. I've been
in that slot now for quite a while. I will
defer to you guys, and wherever you come up with,
(28:34):
I'm cool. I'm I'm just happy to be here. I'm
just here for the beer. Actually, no, it's not. That's
not funny. I'm here because I love Fox Sports Radio.
But I'm going to leave that to you guys and
we'll just see where that goes. And uh, maybe that's
something they can evolve over time. And yeah, I do
agree that Malla militia is u is legendary. They have
my respect. Where the hell are you knuckleheads tonight? If
(28:57):
you don't want to call in fine eight, seven, seven,
nine and nine Fox, we will take your calls. Actually,
this is my seventh Ben Maller show, and in prior
shows we've actually got a lot of calls. But I
digress a right. I want to dive into the college
sing Every week I talk about the winners and losers
from the week before. This is a big weekend, man,
This is a big damn college football weekend, one of
(29:18):
the big weekends at USC. If they beat Notre Dame
Saturday and then they beat you know whoever, it would
be in the Pac twelve Championship. First of all, the
Trojans are ranked six. They're the biggest weekend winner last
week because they had a shootout against the crosstown rival
forty eight forty five over UCLA. That earns him at
least a share of the Pac twelve regular season crown
(29:39):
and a definite spot in the conference championship game. You
gotta give it up to Caleb Williams. My goodness, he's
inching closer to Bryce Young to maybe win the Heisman.
Thirty three touchdowns, three interceptions due for four seventy aggains.
Use la. You couple out with Tennessee's lost to South
Carolina all of a sudden, think poor Hennon Hooker. He
got hurt. He's out of the picture. US. He was
(30:00):
a big winner last week, and Clemson was a big
winner last week. They're lurking. What if Clemson ends up
twelve and one and they're the ACC champion and USC's
twelve and one, and then the Pac twelve champion TCU
runs the table Ohio State beach Michigan, which I believe
they will. I'm gonna get to that later. What do
(30:20):
you do? Well, there's gonna be an argument, but Clemson
is at least at least in the conversation. They were
a winner last week, they won fourty to ten, and
they don't really pass the acces will be but give
it up to Dabbles winning. They just they're back. You know,
they're back, sort of in this rarefied air, even though
I can't say this is one of their better teams.
(30:41):
Ohilse State and Georgia both big winners last week. Right,
no team in the top four had it easy. George's
number one in the country. Remember I talked about the
I talked about the nerves are tightening syndrome. Yeah, the
top four teams all undefeated. None of them covered the spread.
When you are undefeated after week nine in your favorite,
you only care where they spread forty one percent of
(31:02):
the time. If you're a double digit your favorite thirty
seven percent of the time, if you're a home favorite
thirty five percent of the time. Why is that You're
dealing with nineteen twenty year old kids and they feel
the pressure. So when you're Georgia and Ohio State, it's
all about to survive in advance. They don't ask us
how many just because Ohio State wasn't blowing teams out
and Georgia didn't blow anybody out last week, and Ohiouse
State got a little stressed out by Marilanda road. As
(31:23):
long as they keep winning and advancing, that's all that matters.
How about Iowa gave it up to Iowa Sam and
the Iowa Hawkeyes. People have joked about that Iowa offense
because it's been a joke. Hell, even myself, I said
that team couldn't score in a women's prison with a
fifth full of fifties. Yet they're on their way to
another Big ten West crown after they beat Minnesota at
thirteen to ten on a late field goal. The offense
(31:46):
is terrible, the defense continues to be one of the
best in the country. Frankly so with a rivalry of
victory against no you know Nebraska, Well, they advanced to
face either Ohio State or Michigan in the conference championship game,
you'd have to say they're a winner. Notre Dame, they're
a winner right now. They lose to Marshall and Stanford
earlier in the year, people are losing their minds. Now
(32:08):
they have a chance to knock off USC. They shut
out Boston College forty four to nothing. Last week they
hammered a very good North Carolina team put up forty
five points. I'm not a big fan of Notre Dame's offense.
But I'm they'll score points, and they're physical and their
defense is better than USC's defense. This is going to
be a very interesting game Saturday. Not predicting it yet,
(32:31):
I wouldn't be surprised if Notre Dame wins. They came
out right. Texas and Boise State hid both turned around
in their season. You have to call them winners. I
think that's only fair to call the winners the losers. Tennessee,
they were set to join the top four in the
playoff rankings as long as someone lost. One of them
has to lose. Michigan, Ohio State, perhaps TCU, but Tennessee
(32:52):
was lurking right there. They lose to South Carolina. Here's
the kicker, sixty three to thirty eight to Spencer Adler.
Are you kidding me? Spencer Ratler's best game as a collegian.
Four and thirty eight passing yard, six touchdowns. I'd like
to thank the Tennessee volunteers for participating in the twenty
twenty two season. They looked like they had a hell
(33:13):
of a team. Obviously, Georgia they got pole axed, and
I can't believe in South Carolina worked them like a
burger and Fries and that's just the way that history
books are going to write it. North Carolina, they were
a loser last week. They had a genuine chance of
reaching the playoff. They had a very narrow blueprint. I
get it. They could have beaten at Clemson Tennessee in
the pac twelfth champ if they lose. Get that second
(33:35):
loss rough one to swallow for North Carolina. They led
seventeen nothing at the break and then they lose twenty
one seventeen to Georgia Tech. Do you hear that they
lost seven? They were up seventeen nothing? Who the hell
do they think? Year are the Raiders about? Florida Billionapiers debut.
They beat number ten Utah and the season opener Florida.
Oh my goodness, they lose thirty one Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt's done
(33:58):
some good things this year, by the way. That just
kills the Florida the vibe in the Florida Florida State game,
I beliegue. Finally in Michigan State. We're gonna get to
this later in the show. They were all set to
get to Bowl eligibility. They have the Hoosiers, the Indiana
Hoosiers down seventeen points, at halftime and they get beaten,
(34:19):
and they get beaten, and I think they missed a
field goal. Indiana made a field goal tough year from
Michigan State, and they got even tougher. We're gonna talk
about this with a crew at about half an hour.
You know, some of these kids are facing criminal charges
now after what happened in the Michigan tunnel back on
October twenty eight, and for damn good reason. And I'm
going to explain why, and we'll see if the crew
(34:41):
agrees or not. But I there was a three week
investigation and I talked to some folks back there in
Washington County as to what led to this. This is
fairly well unprecedented. When you hear what I know, you
might change your opinion and say, you know what, they
deserve to be charged. Coming up, by the way, coming up,
(35:01):
guess what's coming to Las Vegas. Now. It's not till
five years from now, but you're not going to believe it. Yes,
it's happening, and it's an event you all watch with
bated breath. I'll clue in in just a second. I'm
Bernie Fraudo, comed you live from the Las Vegas Fox
Sports Radio studios the Tire dot Com studios. Keep it
locked right here. You're listening to the Ben Maller Show
(35:23):
on Fox Sports Radio. Fox Sports Radio has the best
sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our
shows at Fox sports Radio dot Com and within the
iHeartRadio app search FSR to listen live. Pay attention, mallor Militia.
The Ben Maller Show needs your help. Ben. All you
gotta do is join the audio Commonwealth by following Ben
on Twitter at Ben Maller or filling in for Ben
(35:45):
follow him Bernie Fratto on Twitter at Bernie Fraudo. You
can also follow our technical producer. He is playing all
the music manning the board. It is Chris Perfetti is
on Twitter at chris Perfett with two ts hell yeah,
I go see lions. You may hear your Winnie content
on the program now more with Big Bernie Freddo. All Right, thanks, Brian,
(36:08):
all right, I teased it. This is not an April
Fool's joke slated to take place starting April first, twenty
twenty eight. Yes, the twenty twenty eight NCAA Men's Final
Four is coming to Las Vegas. It'll be played at
Allegiance Stadium where the Raiders play, among other things, and
Taylor Swift to be coming if you can get tickets.
(36:29):
That's what the NCAA announced Tuesday. Amazing. This is truly amazing,
and it will be, you know, another and a long
line of events. The Pro Bowl has been, here, are
the Super Bowls here coming, et cetera, et cetera. The committee,
by the way, they did on Tuesday, they selected host
sites for several years. Detroit is receiving the twenty twenty
(36:52):
seven event, which I'm glad to hear. I covered the
last year I lived in Michigan. This was in March
April two thousand and nine. The Final four was at
Ford Field, Michigan State. Spartan's actually made the final game
last year. They lost to North Carolina, but boy one
an event. It's the Final Four again, another in a
long line of I think, just incredible events. The fact
(37:15):
that it's coming to Vegas. Indianapolis will get it in
twenty twenty nine, of course they get it all the time. Arlington, Texas.
I'm guessing that'll be at the Jerry Dome. That grat
They're going to be the twenty thirty version. Maybe Jerry
can see the national anthem. I think it'd be like
eighty eight. Then that'd be pretty cool. The long and
the short of it is, the Final Four is nothing.
(37:35):
It's the latest major event announced. It take place when
they built Allegiance Stadium four years ago, spent two billion
dollars sixty five thousand seat capacity. He was a political
football here. You know a lot of folks were against it.
I'm so glad they did it. It's been sensational. They
call it to death Star. It's very modern. It's a
(37:56):
great place to see a game. It's a great place
to see any kind of event. Even UNLB plays their
whole football games there. But the UNFL or the NFL
Pro Bowl was played there this last year and it's
going to also be played again this next year. Actually
is you know that it's like a Pro Bowl week now.
They changed everything around and the Super Bowl would be
here in February twenty twenty four. And if you're scoring
(38:16):
at home, I believe that is soup. That will be
Super Bowl fifty eight. Sounds right to me. Super Bowl
fifty eight, So they to take place here. But the
Final Four is incredible, and you know UNLV won the
National Championship in nineteen ninety. They running rebels Jerry Tar Canadian.
They'll serve as the host team and the un has
made you know, they made the final four four times,
(38:38):
seventy seven, eighty seven, ninety ninety one, won the national
championship in nineteen ninety and Las Vegas has always been
a long time favorite locale. If you really want to
see craziness, be here on the Thursday and Friday, or
actually the first weekend of March Madness when you go
from sixty four to sixteen, every sports book is packed.
(39:02):
The energy on the strip, the energy in the city
is unreal. It's uh, it's really a great fan experience.
But I can't imagine what the final four will be
like as well the city. By the way, we'll also
get our first official men's tournament next year. Now, by
the way, let me make sure you understand this, because
(39:23):
the Big twelve or the Big West Championship, the Mountain
West Championship, UH the Pac twelve Championship, they're five or
six conference championships that are always that are played here anywhere.
They're they're played over at you know, at the South Point,
and they're played at UH at Manalay Bay Arena and
(39:43):
they're played at T Mobile and they're played over at
at at the MGM Grand Arena. So we already have
conference tournaments and next year we're actually going to get
the Western Regionals here in March, which will be pretty cool,
but again nothing that's nothing like the Final Four, which
you're get here in tw twenty eight. By the way,
just if you're scoring at home and you'd like to
(40:03):
come to Vegas. Vegas is also set to host eight
other NCAA championship events in just the next three or
four years, the men's Division one Golf Regional tournament, the
women's Division one Golf Regional, and the college hockey Frozen
Four in twenty twenty six. That is a big damn
deal back in Michigan as the further you go East
Boston around the country where college hockey is huge, and
(40:27):
we have college hockey played out here. But this will
actually be the Final Four, and so this is really
cool because this is the first time the NCAA is
allowed all these events in these markets where sports gaming occurs,
right they changed the policy in twenty nineteen, and I
hope you can make it because it'll be quite an
(40:47):
event coming up is Tom Brady in hot Water. I
will explain keep it locked. This is Bernie Fratto in
for Ben Maller Fox Sports Radio
Hey, thanks for listening to the Ben Maller Show podcast.
It's me Ben. Be sure to catch us live every
weeknight from two to six Eastern eleven pm the three
am Pacific right here on Fox Sports Radio. You can
find your local station for the Ben Maller Show over
at Fox Sports Radio dot com, or stream us live
every night on the iHeartRadio app by searching FSR. You're
(00:26):
listening to Fox Sports Radio. Well you heard the man,
Ben Maller. Are well deserved night off. I'm Bernie Fratto.
We are broadcasting line from the Tirac dot com studios
here in Las Vegas. Tirac dot com. We'll help you
get there. None match selection, fast for your shipping, for
your own Haanzard protection and over ten thousand recommended installers
Tirac dot com the way tire buying should be. We
(00:50):
waste no time. Let's go to our guests here. This
gentleman on our local Fox Sports affiliate here in Las
Vegas every Sunday morning at eight am, hosting Aunt Mine
and he's covered the Raiders intimately. He's been to every game.
Say hello to Brian Film and Brian thanks for staying up.
Played Buddy, always a pleasure, Bernie, So let's starve right
(01:11):
into it, buddy. Here's the situation. On a scale of
one to ten. How shocked were you when Mark Davis,
the owner of the Raiders, said that Josh McDaniels will
be back and quote, he's doing a fantastic job. What
was your reaction? You know, Bernie, I'm not shocked at
all that he's going to be back. I'm definitely shocked
(01:31):
that he says he's doing a good job and singing
his accolades. That's the surprising part about it. The quote
where he said Rome wasn't built in the day. You
just kind of shake your head. Mark Davis is not
a stupid man. That was a stupid quote. And you know,
but I'm not surprised, Bernie, based on a lot of circumstances.
(01:52):
Josh McDaniel is going to be here this year, and
my guess is at least through next year. Well, I'm
gonna agreement with you. I I should have rephrased it.
I'm not shocked he's coming back. I tend to think
Mark's a little cash poor and he's not wanting to
continue paying ex coaches, right, and then the buyout's pretty big.
The vote of confidence was odd. But you're right, he's
(02:12):
not stupid, but that was odd given the fact. Brian,
here's the thing that I don't understand. How are the
Raiders getting away with this narrative. They made the playoffs
last year and now they're supposed to be rebuilding. I
don't get it. Would you know, lay that on for
the folks. What's your impression of that statement? Well, it's funny. Mark,
excuse me. Josh McDaniel would have a big problem with that, Bernie,
(02:33):
because he refuses to use the term rebuilding. He says
that they are building, and that's what he says in
all of his press conferences. And you know, Bernie, the
take on the Raiders right now is, you know, and
I think everyone feels the same way. It's it's surprising.
This is a team that had to win their last
four games to make the postseason last year, all kinds
(02:56):
of controversy, starting with Mark Rudin of course, the very
unfortunate tragedy with the Henry Ruggs ordeal. And then you
know Rich Masacci who comes in, he's beloved, everyone likes him,
and they win four straight games to make the playoffs,
and then they give a great showing in Cincinnati against
the Bagels. So everyone expected Josh McDaniel was supposed to
(03:17):
be hired to elevate this team to the next level.
Not about rebuilding or building. This team has gone completely backwards.
That are stuck in the mud. Horrible coaching decision. And
yet this regardless of what Raider Nation feels, Bernie Josh
McDaniel good a stick around for exactly the reason he said,
Mark Davis just does not have that much money. He's
(03:39):
not as rich as some of the other owners. He
doesn't have the money to pay off the Gruden settlement
and then also pay off Josh McDaniels. He fires him
in addition to a new head coach, it's not going
to happen. Talking with Brian Fellman, our local Fox Sports
radio affiliate here in Las Vegas, hosts on a line
every Sunday morning here at eight am, covers the Raiders
(03:59):
been credential for years. So let's get to the elephant
of the room, Brian, this is important. People like Derek Carr,
but he's been here eight years, never won a playoff game.
You think Derek Carr is back with the Raiders in
twenty twenty three. You know, Bernie straight out, it's hard
to say, I'm going to go out and say no,
he's not. You know, his latest contract extension carries a
(04:22):
sixty point two million dollars of potential guarantees, but only
twenty five of it twenty five million at signing. You know.
To me, the only way I see them not moving
on from Derek Carr is if they string some wins together,
because that would not get a top draft picked, and
they would have to they would not be able to
(04:43):
get one of those top two b's in the draft.
I mean, right now, this is a perfect situation if
they if they can move in before February, say let
go of him, get a bridge QB and then get
one of those top twobs in the bass and Bryce
young a C. J. Strout, Will levis one of those guys.
But I think Bernie, I'm gonna say yes, they are
going to move on from Derek Carr. It feels like
(05:03):
there's gonna be some sort of fall guys since we
now know it's not going to be Josh McDaniels. Again,
these are the things that are blowing in the wind
with the echo chamber, and people are really sort of
split on Derek Carr. They like him, but he's not
that transcendent quarterback that they wish he was, which begs
the second question, Brian, what's the current relationship between Davante
(05:26):
Adams and the team and Derek Carr? And how would
that future look? Because Davante Adams came here to be
with Derek Carr, how will he react if Derek Carr
is gone. It's very interesting, Bernie, and I can't see
them with what they just did and gave Davante Adams,
you know, two they gave away two first round rap
picks this last rap. I just don't see a movie answer.
(05:48):
I think Derek Carr and Davante Adams's relationship is still decent.
They're friends, college friends, They've had a lot of success
together at the collegiate level. And Davante Adams next game
is probably going to be over thousand yards receiving for
the season. He's got ten touchdowns, He's not having a
bad year. But again, you know, Bertie, it's it's it's
the front office. It's you know, Josh McDaniel and Dave Ziegler.
(06:11):
You know, they're they're a package deal, and you're looking
at to me. I would not be shocked if we're
having this conversation at this time next year. Will Josh
McDaniels still be around for the twenty twenty four seasons, because,
as shocking as that might sound, everyone because of financial
you know, finances, that's a possibility. Well, let me ask
(06:33):
you a question. The Raiders head to Seattle Sunday, forget
that game. Let's let's just look at the remaining seven
games or what are the seven games left? I believe, Yeah,
My question is where do you expect the Raiders to
go from here? In terms of you know, I said
they'd be eight and nine and seven and ten. I'm
gonna explain why in about fifteen minutes. What do you expecting?
(06:56):
How do you expect him to finish down the stretch?
Because some of the comments made at the podium, you've
been in the locker room after the games, You've been
to the press conferences. When Derek Carr gets up there
and cries and says he's disappointed that not everybody in
the room seems bought in, that's a pretty damning statement.
How does that go over in the locker room? So
I guess I'm asking sort of three questions here, how
did that go over in the locker room? What's their relationship?
(07:17):
And what do you expect the Raiders to do between
now and the end of the year. I think everyone
was a little bit perplexed when Derek Carr broke down
in the press conference, and you know, and Josh McDaniel
want asked about her. I don't know, why are you
gonna have to ask Derek? That was a little disconcerting. So,
you know, I think that I don't think in the
locker room, you know, anyone gets like points a finger
(07:40):
at Derek Carr. I think there's this array all over
the place, Bernie, and I think that you know, people
will say, and you know, at least on the surface,
they are all going to say, well, that just shows
how much he cares about this team. I don't know.
I think, you know, maybe there's some whispering behind the scenes,
nothing that we can see. It seems like he still
has you know, he still has the team. You know,
(08:00):
he still has the team more or less behind him.
You know, the question is Kenny do the job or not? Well,
that's that's really the question. And Brian I covered you
in sixteen lines back in oh eight, and they didn't
are nearly as much dirty laundry as this team seems
the air now you just see the body language in
the attitude. So again, the Raiders are currently three and seven.
(08:21):
Is that correct? The three and seven? Is that direct? Okay?
So they've got seven games left, there are four and
a half point underdog at Seattle Sunday. Where do you
expect the Raiders? And this your most optimistic answer, what's
the Raiders record at the end of the year. Wow, Bernie,
you know three wins right now? Looking at the remaining
(08:42):
seven games on the schedule, I see three more wins
if things go perfectly for him. So I see him
going three and four. That would give him six total
wins on the season. Bernie, And right now, I think
that's a fair assessment. I think it's an honest answer
because he's seven and ten and eaton nine. I predicted
(09:02):
back in last Argust they have to go five and
two or four and three, and I don't see that.
Let's talk about the Raiders defense, the real elephant in
the room, and they bring over Chandler Jones. He's been
a disappointment in terms of production. Why have the Raiders?
I mean what's the narrative inside the four walls about
that defense, which is really the biggest issue. Well, you know,
(09:24):
you you you hit the nail on the head right
off the beginning. Chandler Jones to be on the you know,
you know, everyone looked at him being on the other
side of Max Crosby. Is the Raiders are going to
have one of the most dominating pass rushes in the
National Football League, and teams are going to have to
be able to run the ball against them because it's
going to be the quarterback's going to have, you know,
a very short window to get the ball out that
(09:45):
it just hasn't been the case. Max Crossley's played decently,
he signed a big contract in the offseason. I think
he's a part of this Raiders future. I think Chandler
Jones is a head scratcher, but I think a big
part of the defense is Bernie is not just help.
I'm not going to blame it on that, but I
do think the secondary, I think, you know, you just
don't have really any leaders back there on the secondary.
(10:06):
You know, starting the season back there, you were looking
at a second year player as being the guy who
was going to leave the secondary that's a problem, as
you know that your last line of defense. But I
really think there's a lot more too at Bernie. I
think that you know, health, yes, has been an issue,
but I think all the way around, to me, the
most the brightest spot in the defense last year was
(10:27):
Denzel Perryman, who really seemed to came in his own,
come into his own coming over from Carolina. He's had
some health issues, but he's healthy. He shores up that defense,
and he's a really good run stopper. But I think
their last line of defense, Bernie, the secondary is something
that's going to have to be a focus. And I
know you're talking about the defense, but to me, the
glaring weakness of this team all year has been the
play of the offensive line. I don't know how many
(10:49):
different combinations they have tried in that offensive line, but
nothing whatsoever has worked right. Clearly, that was the issue.
At an end of the season, the thought was the
pass rush would be enough to save a bad secondary.
I never believed it. But all right, Brian, keep your
ear to the ground, and if there's any major news,
we'll get you back on. We'll see what January brings.
(11:09):
I gotta believe there's going to be some news, all right.
Thanks Brian. Hey, Happy Thanksgiving to you and everyone out
to Bernie. I appreciate it. Thanks, thanks Buddy. That's Brian Feldman,
the host of Autoline here at our Fox Sports a
Philly covers the Raiders. He's at all the press conferences
in the locker room after games. I'm gonna do a
couple of games myself of credential as well. But Brian
is this is really kind of one of his more
(11:31):
full time endeavors. All right? Why? Why is this happening
to the Raiders? I talked about this last August and
I shared with you something called the Pythagorean theorem, and
it's coming true in ways that even I wouldn't have
imagined in the most dramatic fashion. We will tell you
(11:52):
why this is happening to the Raiders and how what
happened last year set up to happen this year. I'm
Bernie Faddle Company Alive from Las Vegas, Fox Sports Radio Studios,
the Tirek dot Com Studios. Keep it locked right here.
You're listening to the Ben Maller Show on Fox Sports Radio.
He's Mike Carmen. I'm Dan Bayer We have a brand
new fantasy football podcast called I Want Your Flex. Twice
(12:17):
a week, every Tuesday and Friday, we come up with
new episodes to not only look back at what happened,
what you need to do at that minute, and also
look ahead of what's coming up in the fantasy football world.
That's right, Dan. Every week we're going to scour the
waiver wire to find the pickups to turbo boost your
fantasy lineup six starts, fantasy football players rankings to get
(12:39):
you ready to dominate the competition. Listen to I Want
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(13:01):
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(13:24):
back to a man who was filling in for Big Ben.
It's Bernie Frado. Pretty fancy math there, Brian. I try Bernie.
Speaking of math last August, after reflecting upon the Raiders
season in twenty twenty one, I said, could just be
bad news for the Raiders heading into twenty twenty two.
(13:46):
And let me explain why. Let me reset this. Many
many years ago, gentlemen by the name of Bill James
introduced a concept called a Pythagorean theorem and he did
it in baseball. Okay, started with baseball, and it had
to do that. It had to do with speculating about
a baseball team's future for performance based on the run
(14:06):
scored and they allowed as it correlates to a winning percentage.
And there's an actual formula to this, while the football
formula was created as well. And there's some definite lessons
to take from what this theory is. And I mentioned
it last August. Let's revisit it okay. So let's start
by applying the Pythagorum theorem to the Raiders and compare
(14:27):
it from twenty one season to this season. See the
Raiders when ten and seven during the regular season in
twenty twenty one. This is the important part. They scored
only three hundred and seventy four points while allowing four
hundred and thirty nine points. That means they were minus
sixty five and point differential. So while the Raiders went
(14:48):
ten and seven, the Pythagorean theorem suggests that, based on
that point differential deficit, the Raiders should have only won
six point nine games. Will call it set and lost
ten games. And other words, the Raiders lost three more
games than they should have based on the formula. Check
(15:09):
that I must mouthed, they won three more games last
year than they should have. Here's where it's gets interesting.
Now interesting to follow along. Try that again in English?
Last time I run a tongue from that place. Here's
where it gets interesting. I'll follow along. I'll justify this.
See when you look at all the teams going back
sixteen years, they won two or more games than they
(15:29):
should have based on the Pythagoran theorem. Based on the
point differential. And remember the Raiders won three more than
they should have, not two more, and how that correlated
to the next season in terms of meeting that season's
NFL win totals, you get the following If a team
overachieved their prior year in the regular season, and they
(15:50):
won two or more games based on the Pythagoran theorem
than they should have, they typically go they're under their
total the following season. And this is not just some
small sample. In sixteen years, there have been thirty one
such teams. And at the beginning of the year, if
you faded the Raiders to go under their win total,
(16:12):
which I believe was seven and a half or eight,
those thirty one teams that had had that same situation before,
if you'd have faded them, you'd have gone twenty four
and seven by betting the end of the following season. Now,
all of those thirty one teams, twenty one of them
had won three or fewer games the following season versus
(16:33):
what they won the previous season. Only three of those
teams actually won more games, one of more of the
Pittsburgh Steelers. But these are basically flukes. Okay, Other other
teams like the Packers and Falcons that overachieved and by
the way that you know the Packers are having some
of those same situations this year. By the way, the
(16:56):
Raiders total was under eight and a half. I apologize.
So what happened was is that even though the Raiders
brought into Vante Adams and there's all kinds of hype
the Raiders, as Brian just mentioned, it was true. This
is one of their other issues pro football, I think
pro football focused rated. The Raiders offensive line is the
(17:17):
worst in the NFL. And when you add that to
the fact the Raiders scored sixty five more points or
sixty five points fewer than they actually scored last year,
or you know, they scored sixty five points fewer than
what they actually allowed. That all added up to the
Raiders winning three more games than they should have. So really,
last year, the Raiders should have been seven and ten.
(17:40):
Not only that, the Raiders went seven and two straight
up and one score games last year. How many what
does that happen this year? I think they're what on
in five in one score games. Also, the Raiders have
blown three seventeen point leads this year and the first
sixty two years of their existence. They only did that
five times. They've done it three times in the first
eight weeks this season. So when you look at the
(18:04):
Raiders and their schedule, where you say, well, they got
a chance to win these games. Texans, they did win, Jaguars,
they lost Seahawks beginning of the season that was projected
as a possible win. They're heading their Sunday, They're a
four point underdog. Not so sure. They still have the
Steelers and Patriots on the docket. Do you really think
the Raiders are better than those teams? So the long
and short of it is, the Raiders were an excellent
(18:25):
candidate to fall prey to the Pythagorean theorem, and they're
doing it. They're three and seven this year. Best case scenario,
maybe they go seven and ten. They'd have to go
four and three down the stretch to go seven and ten.
And I still got the Chiefs one more time. I
believe that. See they've got I just mentioned you got
(18:45):
the Seahawks, you got the Steelers, you got the Patriots,
you got the forty nine ers. On New Year's Day,
you tell me if you think they can go four
and three down the stretch. And let's take this one
step further, teams are typically win more games than their
numbers are just likely suggest that they had very good
fortune in those games. When the Raiders went what seven
(19:06):
and one or seven and two against in one score
games last year, and the higher number of those close
games that you win the year before due to good
fortune typically means you're going to regress back to the
mean the following season. Right, the Raiders frankly had an
extreme amount of luck when it mattered a lot in
(19:28):
twenty twenty one, which enabled him to have a bit
of a Fhaghazi record of ten at seven. Now, let's
compare this data like I mentioned to the thirty one
teams who overachieved by a minimum of two games, and
look at the teams who won four or more close
games than they lost. The Raiders won five more games
(19:48):
than they lost in close and find out those teams
went under the win season total to the tune of
nineteen and four. So out of the twenty three teams,
that not only Okay, we've talked about the point differential
as an issue. The other issue is one score games.
And if the spread was you won three or more
(20:09):
one score games and you lost, so so if you
win four and one and one score games, you qualify
for the stat where the Raiders won seven and two
and one score games last year, which means their differential
was five. They won five more games than they lost
that were one score games. The twenty three teams that
did that same thing the following season, they went under
their win total nineteen out of twenty three times. Three
(20:33):
of the four teams they won four or more games
that they lost during the regular season, the Raiders, the Steelers,
and the Falcons, So if you look at the Steelers,
they're under five hundred as well. They had the same
situation last year, seven and one straight up in those
one score games, the Falcons six and two straight up.
They're starting to come back to earth, which means this
(20:54):
isn't the only the only team. This is happening too. Again,
the concept is fairly simple. The Raiders were ten and
seven last year. The problem is is that they gave
up sixty five more points than they scored, and by
the Pythagorean theorem, that leads you to believe that they
should have won seven games last year, not ten, And
(21:17):
because they overachieved by three and the averages two, that
was almost a sure factor that what happened to them
last year could happen to them again this year. In
terms of regressing back to the mean, the Raiders will
be lucky to go seven and ten this year. Add
to that to the fact they were seven and two
and one score games five more one score wins then
(21:40):
they lost. This typical spread is three. If you had
that good fortune, it almost certainly reverses. Add that to
the fact that the Raiders, by Pro Football Focus, the
worst offensive line in football. You know, they bring in
a pass rusher from Arizona that has not done well,
Derek cars having a rough year. Now why Davante Adams
(22:03):
has some decent numbers. Now the numbers are a little deceiving.
He could go over a thousand yards receiving this week
against Seattle. It has not translated to wins. So it's
been a little nebulous. It hasn't exactly been something where
that you could really count on. And the Raiders three
seventeen point leads this year that they lost. That's only
(22:23):
happened five times in sixty years, now three times in
eight weeks. Add it all up, and the Pythagorean theorem
doesn't lie. It's not just the Raiders. I'm not picking
on the Raiders. It's just that the math tells us
that because of what happened last year, it was unlikely
to have lightning strike twice. And what is happening now,
in addition to all the things you're seeing on the field,
(22:43):
is the math equation of this model is showing up
in a big way. I said the Raiders will go
seven and ten or eight nine in the beginning of
the year. They may not even do that. We shall see.
There's still seven games left left coming up. Let's dive
into college football. We typically look bad. There were some
winners and some losers last week. We've got some big
games coming up this weekend. Lettey who's poised to make
(23:06):
some noise? And who blew it? And on. They're playing
for consolation prizes. But first let's go to the man
who oftenss you only live once, but if you do
it right, one should be enough. It's Brian Philly with
the ladies. Thank you, Bernie. We'll talk. There was one
Marquee college football game yesterday and one team did blow it.
We'll get to that in a moment. But as far
as what happened regarding the NFL those three games on Thanksgiving,
(23:28):
the last one to wrap up the game, the Vikings
found a way to power through against the Patriots thirty
three to twenty six, Kirk Cousins throwing for two hundred
ninety nine yards have those three touchdowns. The one that
was most significant came to Adam Feeling on the receiving
end of what would be the go ahead score with
just under ten minutes to go in the fourth quarter.
The Cowboys up end the Giants twenty eight to twenty,
(23:51):
Dallas scoring fourteen points in that third quarter. Dalton Scholtz
goot two scores and there were three touchdown catches by
Dallas tight ends in the game. And now Dallas is
in second in the NFC East, a game ahead of
the Giants. Everybody's looking up to the Eagles as they
lead the NFC East at nine and one. Overall, the
(24:11):
Bills get it done against the Lions twenty eight to
twenty five. That Tyler Bass time breaking forty five yard
field goal was good to or from from forty five
yards out two seconds left, and that lifted the Bills
late against the Lions, ending their three game winning streak.
Now we go to what happened in Oxford, Mississippi College
(24:32):
football and Mississippi State held on against Old Miss, the
number twenty ranked team in the country, twenty four to
twenty two to win the Egg Bowl, one of the
most under underrated rivalries in the country. And after the game,
everybody the media was going to Lane Kiff and Old
missus head coach to figure out more about what are
his plans for next season after the rumors about him
(24:54):
going to Omburn. He said, as if now he's staying
in Oxford and that's the plan moving forward as far
as college. But on the basketball slate, we did have
a ton of games on Thanksgiving, including number six gone
Zaga winning convincingly against Portland State one o two to
seventy eight as Zags Malachi Smith the guard at twenty
(25:16):
three points. A win for Number eight Duke fifty four
to fifty one against Oregon State that came in come
back fashion as the Beavers blew a lead late. Number
three Kansas holds on late in overtime against Wisconsin sixty
nine to sixty eight. So the Jayhawks are now out
to six and ozo on the season, and number one
North Carolina is out to five and oh They had
(25:38):
a hard time though against Portland eighty one to eighty
excuse me, eighty nine to eighty one. The Heels win
there in a game that was by separated by single digits.
And lastly, Bernie, number eighteen Alabama wins by double digits
against number twelve Michigan State eighty one to seventy. Obviously,
there's a lot more time for college basketball to figure
(26:00):
itself out, but as I send it back to you,
we're getting to the end of the college football season
and there's a lot to still get figured out. All right,
thanks Brian. We're gonna get to some crowd stuffs and
winners and losers. And by the way, a little later
in the show is Tom Brady and Trouble. I'll explain
what's going on there, but first let's go out to
the phones. We're joined by Emma and Olympia. Emma, how
(26:21):
are you, buddy? Happy Thanksgiving? Same to you, Bernie. I
hope you had a good, good day, you know, enjoying
the turkey and the football very much. Still, what a
you got in your mind to day? I want to
talk about the Raiders and this is a thing that
I was completely wrong about because I had them at
the start of the year going ten and seven. I
believe in you know, going second in that division, and
(26:44):
obviously they're not gonna do that. It's very unlikely. It's
so possible. What's not gonna happen because it's an offend
of their games. And I just think a lot of
this has to do with the hire of Josh McDaniels.
I know a couple of weeks ago and you said
this all the time, and I you know, agreed with
you back in January when you put this out there
in the first place, that rich for Sauchi should just
(27:06):
he never should like West, he should have been the
head coach. He used all that like adversity last year
that Raiders had to overcome and deal with. He did
a great job in that locker room, leading him to
the playoffs. I don't know why he ever left. And well,
Mark Davis went big name hunting. Uh. It wasn't Besachi's choice.
He did interview for the job, he was given a
courtesy interview, but all along it looks like Mark Davis
(27:28):
was going for a big name so sad so I
was on Twitter early. I don't know if he saw
this though. With mL Times. You know, obviously we had
the Malor Militia, a very big name the sports radio
fan base, probably the biggest in the business, and I was,
you know, you have a pretty loyal fan base too,
so I was kind of thinking, I'm like, there's something
(27:51):
we could do with this. And I'm looking at synonyms
on the internet for fans and obviously I'm not gonna
take fanatics, that's the friendly fanatics. So the Fratto aficionados
is are coming coming up with, or the efficionados of Fratto.
I don't know if you could adopt any of those.
I know mL Times that baller Bernie would work too.
Are the Bernie ballers? Excuse me? So just trying to
(28:12):
help you out there, trying to get you some more fames,
all right, So thanks, first, thanks for your call, appreciate that.
I hope you had a good Thanksgiving. I'm going to
leave that up to you guys. I'll be on again
tomorrow night, Bernie Fratto Show eleven pm Pacific, two am Saturday,
and of course eleven pm so three am. I've been
in that slot now for quite a while. I will
defer to you guys, and wherever you come up with,
(28:34):
I'm cool. I'm I'm just happy to be here. I'm
just here for the beer. Actually, no, it's not. That's
not funny. I'm here because I love Fox Sports Radio.
But I'm going to leave that to you guys and
we'll just see where that goes. And uh, maybe that's
something they can evolve over time. And yeah, I do
agree that Malla militia is u is legendary. They have
my respect. Where the hell are you knuckleheads tonight? If
(28:57):
you don't want to call in fine eight, seven, seven,
nine and nine Fox, we will take your calls. Actually,
this is my seventh Ben Maller show, and in prior
shows we've actually got a lot of calls. But I
digress a right. I want to dive into the college
sing Every week I talk about the winners and losers
from the week before. This is a big weekend, man,
This is a big damn college football weekend, one of
(29:18):
the big weekends at USC. If they beat Notre Dame
Saturday and then they beat you know whoever, it would
be in the Pac twelve Championship. First of all, the
Trojans are ranked six. They're the biggest weekend winner last
week because they had a shootout against the crosstown rival
forty eight forty five over UCLA. That earns him at
least a share of the Pac twelve regular season crown
(29:39):
and a definite spot in the conference championship game. You
gotta give it up to Caleb Williams. My goodness, he's
inching closer to Bryce Young to maybe win the Heisman.
Thirty three touchdowns, three interceptions due for four seventy aggains.
Use la. You couple out with Tennessee's lost to South
Carolina all of a sudden, think poor Hennon Hooker. He
got hurt. He's out of the picture. US. He was
(30:00):
a big winner last week, and Clemson was a big
winner last week. They're lurking. What if Clemson ends up
twelve and one and they're the ACC champion and USC's
twelve and one, and then the Pac twelve champion TCU
runs the table Ohio State beach Michigan, which I believe
they will. I'm gonna get to that later. What do
(30:20):
you do? Well, there's gonna be an argument, but Clemson
is at least at least in the conversation. They were
a winner last week, they won fourty to ten, and
they don't really pass the acces will be but give
it up to Dabbles winning. They just they're back. You know,
they're back, sort of in this rarefied air, even though
I can't say this is one of their better teams.
(30:41):
Ohilse State and Georgia both big winners last week. Right,
no team in the top four had it easy. George's
number one in the country. Remember I talked about the
I talked about the nerves are tightening syndrome. Yeah, the
top four teams all undefeated. None of them covered the spread.
When you are undefeated after week nine in your favorite,
you only care where they spread forty one percent of
(31:02):
the time. If you're a double digit your favorite thirty
seven percent of the time, if you're a home favorite
thirty five percent of the time. Why is that You're
dealing with nineteen twenty year old kids and they feel
the pressure. So when you're Georgia and Ohio State, it's
all about to survive in advance. They don't ask us
how many just because Ohio State wasn't blowing teams out
and Georgia didn't blow anybody out last week, and Ohiouse
State got a little stressed out by Marilanda road. As
(31:23):
long as they keep winning and advancing, that's all that matters.
How about Iowa gave it up to Iowa Sam and
the Iowa Hawkeyes. People have joked about that Iowa offense
because it's been a joke. Hell, even myself, I said
that team couldn't score in a women's prison with a
fifth full of fifties. Yet they're on their way to
another Big ten West crown after they beat Minnesota at
thirteen to ten on a late field goal. The offense
(31:46):
is terrible, the defense continues to be one of the
best in the country. Frankly so with a rivalry of
victory against no you know Nebraska, Well, they advanced to
face either Ohio State or Michigan in the conference championship game,
you'd have to say they're a winner. Notre Dame, they're
a winner right now. They lose to Marshall and Stanford
earlier in the year, people are losing their minds. Now
(32:08):
they have a chance to knock off USC. They shut
out Boston College forty four to nothing. Last week they
hammered a very good North Carolina team put up forty
five points. I'm not a big fan of Notre Dame's offense.
But I'm they'll score points, and they're physical and their
defense is better than USC's defense. This is going to
be a very interesting game Saturday. Not predicting it yet,
(32:31):
I wouldn't be surprised if Notre Dame wins. They came
out right. Texas and Boise State hid both turned around
in their season. You have to call them winners. I
think that's only fair to call the winners the losers. Tennessee,
they were set to join the top four in the
playoff rankings as long as someone lost. One of them
has to lose. Michigan, Ohio State, perhaps TCU, but Tennessee
(32:52):
was lurking right there. They lose to South Carolina. Here's
the kicker, sixty three to thirty eight to Spencer Adler.
Are you kidding me? Spencer Ratler's best game as a collegian.
Four and thirty eight passing yard, six touchdowns. I'd like
to thank the Tennessee volunteers for participating in the twenty
twenty two season. They looked like they had a hell
(33:13):
of a team. Obviously, Georgia they got pole axed, and
I can't believe in South Carolina worked them like a
burger and Fries and that's just the way that history
books are going to write it. North Carolina, they were
a loser last week. They had a genuine chance of
reaching the playoff. They had a very narrow blueprint. I
get it. They could have beaten at Clemson Tennessee in
the pac twelfth champ if they lose. Get that second
(33:35):
loss rough one to swallow for North Carolina. They led
seventeen nothing at the break and then they lose twenty
one seventeen to Georgia Tech. Do you hear that they
lost seven? They were up seventeen nothing? Who the hell
do they think? Year are the Raiders about? Florida Billionapiers debut.
They beat number ten Utah and the season opener Florida.
Oh my goodness, they lose thirty one Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt's done
(33:58):
some good things this year, by the way. That just
kills the Florida the vibe in the Florida Florida State game,
I beliegue. Finally in Michigan State. We're gonna get to
this later in the show. They were all set to
get to Bowl eligibility. They have the Hoosiers, the Indiana
Hoosiers down seventeen points, at halftime and they get beaten,
(34:19):
and they get beaten, and I think they missed a
field goal. Indiana made a field goal tough year from
Michigan State, and they got even tougher. We're gonna talk
about this with a crew at about half an hour.
You know, some of these kids are facing criminal charges
now after what happened in the Michigan tunnel back on
October twenty eight, and for damn good reason. And I'm
going to explain why, and we'll see if the crew
(34:41):
agrees or not. But I there was a three week
investigation and I talked to some folks back there in
Washington County as to what led to this. This is
fairly well unprecedented. When you hear what I know, you
might change your opinion and say, you know what, they
deserve to be charged. Coming up, by the way, coming up,
(35:01):
guess what's coming to Las Vegas. Now. It's not till
five years from now, but you're not going to believe it. Yes,
it's happening, and it's an event you all watch with
bated breath. I'll clue in in just a second. I'm
Bernie Fraudo, comed you live from the Las Vegas Fox
Sports Radio studios the Tire dot Com studios. Keep it
locked right here. You're listening to the Ben Maller Show
(35:23):
on Fox Sports Radio. Fox Sports Radio has the best
sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our
shows at Fox sports Radio dot Com and within the
iHeartRadio app search FSR to listen live. Pay attention, mallor Militia.
The Ben Maller Show needs your help. Ben. All you
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on Twitter at Ben Maller or filling in for Ben
(35:45):
follow him Bernie Fratto on Twitter at Bernie Fraudo. You
can also follow our technical producer. He is playing all
the music manning the board. It is Chris Perfetti is
on Twitter at chris Perfett with two ts hell yeah,
I go see lions. You may hear your Winnie content
on the program now more with Big Bernie Freddo. All Right, thanks, Brian,
(36:08):
all right, I teased it. This is not an April
Fool's joke slated to take place starting April first, twenty
twenty eight. Yes, the twenty twenty eight NCAA Men's Final
Four is coming to Las Vegas. It'll be played at
Allegiance Stadium where the Raiders play, among other things, and
Taylor Swift to be coming if you can get tickets.
(36:29):
That's what the NCAA announced Tuesday. Amazing. This is truly amazing,
and it will be, you know, another and a long
line of events. The Pro Bowl has been, here, are
the Super Bowls here coming, et cetera, et cetera. The committee,
by the way, they did on Tuesday, they selected host
sites for several years. Detroit is receiving the twenty twenty
(36:52):
seven event, which I'm glad to hear. I covered the
last year I lived in Michigan. This was in March
April two thousand and nine. The Final four was at
Ford Field, Michigan State. Spartan's actually made the final game
last year. They lost to North Carolina, but boy one
an event. It's the Final Four again, another in a
long line of I think, just incredible events. The fact
(37:15):
that it's coming to Vegas. Indianapolis will get it in
twenty twenty nine, of course they get it all the time. Arlington, Texas.
I'm guessing that'll be at the Jerry Dome. That grat
They're going to be the twenty thirty version. Maybe Jerry
can see the national anthem. I think it'd be like
eighty eight. Then that'd be pretty cool. The long and
the short of it is, the Final Four is nothing.
(37:35):
It's the latest major event announced. It take place when
they built Allegiance Stadium four years ago, spent two billion
dollars sixty five thousand seat capacity. He was a political
football here. You know a lot of folks were against it.
I'm so glad they did it. It's been sensational. They
call it to death Star. It's very modern. It's a
(37:56):
great place to see a game. It's a great place
to see any kind of event. Even UNLB plays their
whole football games there. But the UNFL or the NFL
Pro Bowl was played there this last year and it's
going to also be played again this next year. Actually
is you know that it's like a Pro Bowl week now.
They changed everything around and the Super Bowl would be
here in February twenty twenty four. And if you're scoring
(38:16):
at home, I believe that is soup. That will be
Super Bowl fifty eight. Sounds right to me. Super Bowl
fifty eight, So they to take place here. But the
Final Four is incredible, and you know UNLV won the
National Championship in nineteen ninety. They running rebels Jerry Tar Canadian.
They'll serve as the host team and the un has
made you know, they made the final four four times,
(38:38):
seventy seven, eighty seven, ninety ninety one, won the national
championship in nineteen ninety and Las Vegas has always been
a long time favorite locale. If you really want to
see craziness, be here on the Thursday and Friday, or
actually the first weekend of March Madness when you go
from sixty four to sixteen, every sports book is packed.
(39:02):
The energy on the strip, the energy in the city
is unreal. It's uh, it's really a great fan experience.
But I can't imagine what the final four will be
like as well the city. By the way, we'll also
get our first official men's tournament next year. Now, by
the way, let me make sure you understand this, because
(39:23):
the Big twelve or the Big West Championship, the Mountain
West Championship, UH the Pac twelve Championship, they're five or
six conference championships that are always that are played here anywhere.
They're they're played over at you know, at the South Point,
and they're played at UH at Manalay Bay Arena and
(39:43):
they're played at T Mobile and they're played over at
at at the MGM Grand Arena. So we already have
conference tournaments and next year we're actually going to get
the Western Regionals here in March, which will be pretty cool,
but again nothing that's nothing like the Final Four, which
you're get here in tw twenty eight. By the way,
just if you're scoring at home and you'd like to
(40:03):
come to Vegas. Vegas is also set to host eight
other NCAA championship events in just the next three or
four years, the men's Division one Golf Regional tournament, the
women's Division one Golf Regional, and the college hockey Frozen
Four in twenty twenty six. That is a big damn
deal back in Michigan as the further you go East
Boston around the country where college hockey is huge, and
(40:27):
we have college hockey played out here. But this will
actually be the Final Four, and so this is really
cool because this is the first time the NCAA is
allowed all these events in these markets where sports gaming occurs,
right they changed the policy in twenty nineteen, and I
hope you can make it because it'll be quite an
(40:47):
event coming up is Tom Brady in hot Water. I
will explain keep it locked. This is Bernie Fratto in
for Ben Maller Fox Sports Radio
Host
Ben Maller
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Crime Junkie
Does hearing about a true crime case always leave you scouring the internet for the truth behind the story? Dive into your next mystery with Crime Junkie. Every Monday, join your host Ashley Flowers as she unravels all the details of infamous and underreported true crime cases with her best friend Brit Prawat. From cold cases to missing persons and heroes in our community who seek justice, Crime Junkie is your destination for theories and stories you won’t hear anywhere else. Whether you're a seasoned true crime enthusiast or new to the genre, you'll find yourself on the edge of your seat awaiting a new episode every Monday. If you can never get enough true crime... Congratulations, you’ve found your people. Follow to join a community of Crime Junkies! Crime Junkie is presented by audiochuck Media Company.