The Best of The Jason Smith Show

Mike Harmon and Arnie Spanier talk about this weekend’s College Football Playoff, are joined by CollegeFootballNews.com’s Pete Fiutak, and Todd Fuhrman of the BetTheBoard Podcast.

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Thanks for listening to the best of The Jason Smith
Show with Mike Carmen podcast. Be sure to catch us
live every weeknight from ten pm to two a m.
Eastern seven to eleven pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio.
Find your local station for The Jason Smith Show with
Mike Harmon at Fox Sports Radio dot com, or stream
us live every night on the I Heart Radio app
by searching fs R. This is the best of The

(00:22):
Jason Smith Show with Mike Harmon on Fox Sports Radio. Oh,
it is a night of stars. They are out across
our sporting landscape, college hoops, college football, old games, playoff
games tomorrow, the NHL full slate of NBA, and the

(00:45):
biggest star of them all, Arnie is here and his
name is John Cis That is right? John Cena returns
to SmackDown on Fox. I don't care about Lebron James
Domin eating on his birthday, beating the Hawks. Don't care
about the fact that we've got college bowl game is

(01:06):
with Clemson that half top No. John Cena has returned.
How are you, Arnie? I'm on My body's all tingling
not to break Dot News. I don't know what to
say about that. Get you all excited getting revved up
for WrestleMania here in Los Angeles in early April, no
question about it. Welcome in a beautiful Friday night to you.
Thanks for being with us here Fox Sports Radio Live

(01:29):
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Jason Smith will be back Monday as we get ready
for Monday Night football and the glory that is the
Bills and the Bangles. But in his stead here once

(01:51):
again tonight. The man you love, the man you love
to hate. It is the stak of Genius himself. My
friend Arnie Spanier, How buddy, how's it going? Mr Carmen.
I'm always in a good mood on a Friday. You're
always uh, you know, optimistic that your teams are gonna
win over the week game? Are you know? I feel
good about my Dolphins, Teddy be too. It doesn't make

(02:11):
it difference. We should be able to get by the Patriots,
and and I know that the Jets are gonna lose
the Seattle So that means the Dolphins will clinch a
playoffs spot. I feel good. I'm ready to roll. Look
at you. Yeah, I've had one of those football seasons
where I'm done with it. Uh. My Northwestern Wildcats were
a punching bag outside of the game in Ireland. My
brothers got to go to that, so they at least

(02:32):
got to see good for that one win. Yeah, so
that was good. Uh. And then obviously the Bears, while
there is progress being made and they'll have a top
pick and a lot of money to spend, and we'll
see how well that goes. It's gotta be tough. Well,
you know what, I can always revel in the season,
bring back memories and being laid up with a severe

(02:53):
knee injury and watching the playoffs and this is a
long time ago. Well, but that's the problem. Other than that,
you know, the last time they were in the Super
Bowl with Sexy Rexy getting it done with that defense
and special teams losing to Peyton Manning in the rain
down there in Miami, and the only thing anybody wants
to talk about his prints going and all that, that's

(03:13):
all anybody remembers. You know, I gotta tell you I was.
I was rudy for the Raiders one night because I
needed them to win for my Dolphins. Just gonna say,
there's gotta be some backstory to that. No, no, just
I'm root for the Raiders one exactly for that one game.
And for those three hours. It was like the worst
three hours of my wife. Seriously, I'm telling you it

(03:37):
must suck being a Raiders fan. The penalties and the
mistakes and uh just everything. Man, it was I was,
I think, goodness only last three hours. I don't know.
I don't know. I could be a permanent Raiders fans
sameting must be with the with the Bears fans too.
I mean, it's all the mistakes and the penalties. It's
gotta kill you no offense sometimes. I mean, you know,

(03:57):
the long, long road of it is when you're looking
at a guy who's in his second year and has
been inconsistent, and still make some rudimentary mistakes exciting, sizzling,
uh and and highly entertaining a time justin fields, um,
when you're already starting to look at him, going how
long is it gonna take before he's the greatest Bears
quarterback of all time? And you're giving out the local

(04:18):
phone number on sports talk radio. That's a problem that
that's a problem for your franchise. Especially go back to
Week three or week four locally and nationally, people wanted
him run out on a rail. So it it is
that kind of hey, what are we doing for me today?
Kind of mentality, the microwave mentality. But I want it now?
Uh that that pervades all of it, and you and I,

(04:41):
I think, subscribe to the same philosophy of the show
is today, Uh saying hey, we need to wait three
years for this, you know, draft grades and all that. Yeah,
that's the pragmatic approach. And that's my my reality of
how I look at things. But when it comes to
the radio spot and video spots and whatever what we're
doing in the written form, the reality is I've got

(05:03):
to go with the eye test of what I've seen
to date. I can't say wishing, wanting, hoping and assume
all those other dominoes are suddenly gonna line up, because
we just ain't. So I gotta ask you, what what
does a Bears fan do now that the football season's over?
What do you what? I mean the Bulls? I guess
I don't know. What or what? I don't know. I'm

(05:24):
sorry that I said something grows outside or baby. I
had wanted the few, the proud, the strong. I mean
I stole that tagline from the Marines. We are white
Sox fans, you know, small in number, but we are feisty,
angry and ready to fight. I want you to know.
The new we would game that I was on was
strictly for Chicago couples. Is that right? Oh? Yeah? When
we went ahead and did the try out, and um,

(05:46):
we were one of the couples they picked, but it
was only for Chicago area couples. How did you fraud
your way into that. We were living in Chicago at
the time and set up a thing and there was
like two hundred couples there and they were doing they
were playing the game three at a time, and I'm like, no, no, no,
I go. If you think I'm gonna be a couple
like one two and I'm gonna wait all afternoon, it's
not gonna happen. And the lady goes, how about if

(06:08):
you're a couple of number five? I say, don't you
know who am I? That could work if I could
wait one game and then hop out I'm good to go.
I'm ready to go. Look at that. Yeah, so that
was that was the last time you flexed power? And
at stinking Genius one where you find Arnie find me
over at Swollen. I'm so much to get to tonight.

(06:30):
Obviously the college football playoffs tomorrow. We had bowl games.
All I forgot about that. By the way, thanks for
reminding me. Well, you know what, send me a note
very early this morning, and I said, go away, as
someone's gotta work on the show. But go ahead. Someone's
got to sleep after doing the show the night before.
I did it Wednesday, I did it Monday. Come on, now,

(06:54):
did you get up? You look just because you're diseased
and need to be back up less than eight hours later,
and writing for a show that won't be for another
fourteen hours is your problem. So I get immediately the
text with the yellow legal because are you there? Hello,
I've got ideas already, ball, We're gonna talk football tonight.

(07:18):
Lots of stuff. No, and look, and I love it.
I love the the engagement that Harvey gets so mad
leave me alone. No, no, no, no no, as long as
it's not a barrage of text that early. Because here's
the thing, right, You've got folks, family friends that live
in different time zones, which about well, but sometimes folks

(07:38):
forget you're on the West Coast. You just generally don't care.
Like that's not I don't forget. It's like I'm awake,
I've had your coffee, I'm watching the prices right, I'm
sending you it now. So that's kind of the way
it went. But in your notes, and you brought up
the college football playoff and this part of the bowl season.

(07:59):
We'll get back to Lebron James and his big birthday
night here in a moment. But the reality is, I
think just as you laid it out, it's is exactly right.
We have this long layover. You've got so much filling
the gap that unless you're a fan of those respective
teams or kind of looking at it from a historical standpoint,

(08:20):
some of what we were talking about. I heard Rob
and Allen as I got to the studio getting into
the Paul Fine bomb Jim Harbaugh comments and what we'll
do that a little bit later on, uh in the show.
But just from a legacy history, what's the next domino
to fall? Because that's where we live here in sports
talk radio, aren't he as you know, especially when it
comes to the carousel spinning for quarterbacks and coaches in

(08:44):
the National Football League that you're you're trying to figure out,
all right, depending on these outcomes, what happens or are
they outcome independent that it's already a done deal. In
this case, you've had a month a right, we're going
back to the beginning of December. You've got Ohio State
going back to the end of November since they last played.

(09:04):
You've had all the transfer portal stuff and i L
deals that beyond Sanders moving along and and bringing along
moving trucks because he brought half his team with him
from Jackson State. Go on down the line that there's
so much that's transpired, right. The NBA is now in
the quote unquote regular season college buckets is more than
a month into play, and and you've had some pretty

(09:26):
good matchups mixed therein. We talked about it a little
bit last night, that crighton DePaul game that drew a
three uh three million viewers on Christmas Day. That's kind
of a big deal to to kind of make sense. Uh.
The only thing that that rated opposite it in the
NBA schedule that day was Milwaukee Boston. Otherwise, it beat
every other NBA game that was on the slate, even

(09:49):
with bad NFL games all of that stuff. So you
just go on down the line and and it gets
kind of lost and pushed. His ID was like, oh, yeah,
wait a minute, that's that's Saturday. All right, let's try
to fire elves back up for it. But unless you're
a fan along of those schools or trying to figure
out the lay of the land, and if you work
around a college campus figuring out how the recruiting angles

(10:12):
can fall out of this, I think for a lot
of fans in college, the casual college football fan, it
kind of falls off. Oh not to mention it's on
New Year's Eve again, right, No, no, And that was
a problem the first time around. I gotta say everything
other thing you said is right there. The end I
nd L deal kind of takes away because, uh, some
kids are transferring. Uh some kids have opted out, um

(10:33):
last minute opt outs right center from Minnesota, just a
couple hours before they get na forget it. I'm not
gonna go yeah, so so so they opting out of
this thing. It's been so long, it's been four or
five weeks. But this won't be a problem much longer
because once we go to twelve teams, that means we're
adding like three weekends, which means we'll have to go earlier,
um to go ahead and start this. And I'm talking

(10:55):
at least like two or three weeks earlier to go ahead,
three weeks earlier to start this, so the won't be
such a gap. So it's a you gonna help. But
right now, as you mentioned, I mean Ohio State played
late November, Um, here we are December was like five
weeks plus or or something to that effect. That that's
absolutely ridiculous, and um, it does take away it's luster.
It does take away this team because I mean, the

(11:16):
best time of the NFL is what weeks at tent
through seventeen where we're at now into wild card weekend
and the way things are shaping up, Arnie, as we'll
talk about over the course of the night. We'll have
Todd ferman on later from the college perspective, will at
Pete Feu Tech on next hour. You talk about the
divisional round for the NFL might be the best looking
it's ever been. And I know that type perbole and

(11:38):
living in the now. But look at the teams that
might be matching up in that week as as you
play out the playoff create No, I understand. Usually you know,
sometimes we even have better races. It's we don't even
look like the best races for the wild card. I
think one spot opened in that a f C for
the most part at number seven. But um still, this
is the best time in the NFL and college football

(11:59):
is there's really nowhere to be found until you get
to some of these early bull games. And that doesn't
cut it. These early bowl games doesn't really fill you
up until you get to the semifinals. That's like saying, here,
I'm gonna put up some olives three hours before dinner.
Make sure you don't fill yourself up. You get nothing
for the next three hours. No, no, there better be
some cheese and crackers. You know what happens. But there,

(12:21):
come on, get some stuff out there, harmon. No, But
what you do there, Arnie, If you're coming up all
those olives, people are gonna have a lot of salt intake,
which means you're gonna which means we're gonna eat less.
See filling up on water. That's true, But you gotta
put out more to fill me up. You need more
than you know, just some type of bowl that I
really could care less about. I'll watch it, you know,

(12:42):
I'm watching the game. But that's that's not filling me up.
Um until I get to the semifinals. That's just not
doing it. I thought it was pretty cool. I was talking,
you know, we were talking. You were saying three hours,
and you know, you gotta give me something from my
three hours. I went and saw the movie Babylon today.
All the daughter decided to do, you know, she goes, hey,
you need a plus on. I was like, yeah, come on,
And first twenty minutes I was looking around, going all right,

(13:04):
I should not have brought my daughter to the first
twenty minutes of this movie because it is odd as hell.
Lots of stuff going on, let's just say adult situations. Well,
but there's so much going on that it's hard to
really pinpoint what you're actually seeing. It's one of those
kind of situations like can I just see what I think?
I thought, Yeah, that kind of thing. But that was

(13:25):
three hours and nine minutes long. I think you could
have chopped an hour. No, no, I can't. I can't
do three hours. Yeah, no, I knew it was long.
One thing, if it's three hours that it just keeps
going right and you've got a lot of action whatever,
but you got some parts that you know, really get
you into the sentimentality old Hollywood all that, but it
starts to drag. But either way, we decided to go

(13:47):
off for lunch afterwards, which is cool. And you know,
sports sometimes in our business, as you know, can become
the enemy for the kids because travel, if you you're
on the beat covering things, or you go away for
a week or two weeks at a time, time training
camps or spring training or whatever else. From my kids,
never the enemy. Just really not a huge interest, right.
It was something that dad did and they knew enough

(14:09):
to have conversation whatever. We're sitting there over lunch and
she was just eagleied watching the pit U c l
A game. Was absolutely focused on that, and she's like, wait,
all right, kickers coming out. Wait they got down to
where the kicker could come out. What's going on? Dad? Like, well,
you watched how they played defense here, and I gotta
break it. And then you know, the left left off,

(14:31):
the left foot goes through the upright and they went
thirt because my friends are gonna be really sad. Are
you gonna torment them? Man, we're here in southern California
for those on where um like you're you're gonna text
them all on now, aren't you? Because yes, yes, I am, Like,
all right, So you got that thing. That was a
great game, the Notre Dame South Carolina game, a fantastic

(14:53):
game Maryland, NC State, which had its own controversy on
the side, which we'll get too later on Uh sick
Steam twelve not exactly a barn burner, but in a
close game in Ohio and Wyoming, I mean, you got
everything you get asked for, right, because that's what we
look at in the NFL, like how many one loss
or a one possession wins and losses do you have?
Did you get close games? Wasn't competitive? They want parody

(15:16):
for the Bowl games. If you're paying attention, you've at
least come down to the wire. Now, I'd be curious
from a betting standpoint if I start doing the accumulation
of moving lines and and the good, the bad, the ugly,
and just like the underdogs. It was like the underdogs
the way to go. You know, well that that's kind
of what the NFL has been much of the year
as well. So halftime Tennessee fourteen three over Clemson. Uh,

(15:40):
they had the Clemson was moving the ball late in
the first half. Uh, and get nothing out of it.
So they're an embarrassment, they really are. I mean, jeez,
how many if you if you attempt three field goal
three times in the row, you should be fired. I
mean that's embarrassing. You know. I like that. See there,
fast rules come again for already spanning. If you attempt

(16:03):
three field goals, you're fired. That's good that. I like
the cut of your jib, no question about it. Already spanning.
Your in for Jason Smith, I'll Mike Carmen here at
the Jason Smith Show with Mike car But we're just
getting started here on Fox Sports Radio. We'll get into
Lebron James the night that the Birthday Man had his
comments from yesterday, and a little bit of the chaos

(16:25):
going on with Atlanta rumor conjecture, speculation, and I order
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be sure to catch live editions of The Jason smith
Show with Mike Harmon weekdays at ten pm Eastern, seven
pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the I Heart
Radio whapp Welcome back in Fox Sports or Radio Jason
smith yall with me, Mike Harmen Here. Arnie Spaniard is

(17:54):
in for Jason Smiths tonight. I mean he's everywhere. You're
working to are and I too, right, Yes, I am
filled in for Torres sitting there with Jason Martin. Look
at you. Torres actually got out of town. I heard
him griping about plane, plane fair and travel and stuff.
Well that's what you get for doing it. It's such
a late time, like a knucklehead when everybody's going through problems.

(18:17):
But that's what I think. He had a ticket book.
Then then it just became a am I getting out
or not? And I was like, well you either are
you aren't? Well? I hope he suffered a little bit.
Look at you. I'm not a nice even though now
it's it's your win because he won't be on. You
get an extra shift to evangelize and wax poetics. Good,
it's a good day to be on. We got the

(18:38):
semifinals tomorrow and then the day before Week seventeen. It's
such a good shift to beyond well. And that's it
as it is here right now on Fox Sports Radio,
as we welcome in our body. Yeah, College Football News
dot Com, the proprietor the Grand Puba, all the breakdowns,
all the splits, lots of caffeine rolling through his veins
as he does it each and every week and joins

(19:00):
is on the hotline, Buddy, Pete Feutech. Find him on
Twitter at Pete Feutech. Hey, Buddy, Happy New Year, Happy holidays.
Hope it's been good to you. So does Arnie being
so into Arizona take credit for the great Arizona Bowl today?
Or I'll take credit forwards to take credit for whatever
he can. Pete. He walks around here going, did you

(19:21):
see that what they did with the lineup? Did you
hear that? How many clicks this podcast? He had nothing
to do with it, didn't promote it, Evangeli now, no, No,
it's all his brain child. Yeah, So it was it
his idea to play the Arizona Bowl right when like
no Notre Dames playing, and when all these other bowls
are happening, when nobody notices that it's probably the best
bowl of the season. But I digress. Counter program come out. Yeah,

(19:45):
you know, I just want to say this, you know, Pete,
we were talking about this earlier, how it seems like
college football lost so much luster because it's been so
long since the last games. And I said, these bowl games,
these early bowl games, just not filling me up until
I get to the main meal out there. Um I
I but this we'll take care of itself when we
go to the twelve team format. We'll start getting this earlier,

(20:06):
like three or four weeks earlier, right, I would think so,
I would think that this that there's gonna be a
bridge where you're gonna have the end of the college
football regular season, then two weeks off you're in between
you have like the Heisman, the Army Navy game, and
the build up for the first round of playoffs, and
then that's gonna be mid December, and that's gonna kind

(20:27):
of be that thing to kind of keep it keep
the buzz going, because I'm with you. I mean, like, look,
every almost every other show I'm on and doing stuff
like let's pivot now to college football, Like because everyone's
talking to the NFL. You know, it's all about the NFL.
The NFL is so crazy right now, and you know,
whatever other sport or thing is happening at the moment
that you're right, it just unless you're a you know,

(20:48):
a diehard fan. He gotta gear it back up again
for this college football playoffs and like, oh, yeah, it's tomorrow. Okay,
I'll watch that, but it just doesn't carry the big buzz.
And I will just say, as a family man and
a sports journalist type, I've tried. I've talked to him
about this, but seriously, you're playing this on New Year's Eve. Brutal. No.

(21:12):
But going back to the whole family thing, I mean,
there have been a number of occasions here during this
last week, right the way the calendar falls Sunday to Sunday,
Christmas Day until New Year's that you have all these
bowl games and so ample opportunity if you're inundated with
family to go find a little bit of rest. But hey,
I'm gonna go for a walk where we're too corner bar,

(21:33):
what's on the Tax Act? Texas Bowl? I'm gone? So
how do I work this? So with my wife's birthday
January eight, and every year I go to the college
football Playoff national championship. I'm just going to the hardware store.
But you don't know how to fix anything. Yeah, well
here I'm starting now, that's all right. And and give
her a couple of Elvis albums and a bottle of
booze and say it's Elvis's birthday too. That. Oh if

(21:57):
that would work exactly, you find me the woman that
that works for. And I'm leaving this one for that.
There's tic exactly, But again I digress. So how's the
Michigan If everyone's feeling good over there, you're assuming this
is gonna be one of those semifinals that we just
know it's gonna be, uh, you know, a twenty four

(22:19):
point win and everything's gonna be right with the world.
I have seventeen Michigan over t c U. I don't
think they could keep up with him. It's not going
to be close. Uh. I wish we didn't have to
play the game, and I wish it was the second
game so we could just turn it off and and
you know, getting ready for New Year's Eve. But it's uh,
it's gonna be a blow and it's not gonna be
ugly pretty much. Well. I mean, look, we've we've seen

(22:41):
over the first eight years of the college football Playoff
is whenever the kid gets a seat at the adult table,
the conversation isn't good. Whether it's you know Cincinnati, Oh,
isn't that cute? They're in you know, Boom, they get blasted,
you know, Washington, Michigan State, Notre Dame twice, even you
know Michigan to a certain extent last year even though
earned it. But just and we don't get that outlier

(23:03):
team that rises up in rocks. Just isn't the NTA
basketball Tournament. Now. I hope TCU makes is a game.
I hope it makes it fun. But the fun thrown
out there is in seven of the first eight Undercard
College Football Playoffs semifinals, we had the Baker Mayfield, UH
Sony Michelle double overtime Oklahoma Georgia Rose Bowl, and that's hit.

(23:25):
Every other college Football Playoffs undercard semifinals has been decided
by seven teen points or more, mostly because that first
game is the one that does play the outlier team.
You don't get the superpowers for the most part. Uh
And I think this one's gonna be the same. I
think it's gonna be when it's gonna be. I mean,
Michigan's just typically it's just maddening, maddening, the consistent where

(23:47):
we know that TCU might be up like fourteen tenant halftime,
and then Michigan comes out and rolls for four hundred
yards in the first drive of the second half, and
somehow gets up on a twenty point run and there
goes that because the offensive line takes over. I just
don't see this being all that close, especially not seven
and a half close. Well, and that that's the larger

(24:08):
thing with Michigan. We saw the quotes from earlier this week,
McCarthy talking a lot about using the word regret, which
we hear a lot as you get towards the end
of any calendar year anyway, right, Pete, of all of
the first of all, how about a twenty one year
old kid who's start, a great looking quarterback from Michigan
having the word regrets I mean to him, but yes,
go on, Well, but it's the larger idea of they

(24:30):
had their opportunity and they got smoked a year ago,
so that that's one of the things that feeds into
the fuel. And and then you have horrorball and and
still a lot of wondering even if he says, hey,
I'm not going anywhere, the questions of if if he
finishes the job, or even if he doesn't, whether he's
on campus in twenty three, or he's didn't totally low

(24:51):
ball him doing and yeah, you went really cheap on
their head. Coaches, You're but like, look, you know, let's
let's get there already. Where Okay, let's just sue it's
if TCU wins, Okay, that'd be kind of crazy. But
then is anybody really looking forward to the National Championship
because you know what's coming, then Uh, as long as

(25:13):
Michigan wins, either we have We'll pause that and say,
if we can get Pete back into uh positive for me,
he might be on one of his night walks doors
suddenly found himself in a polar vortex. Yeah, he obviously,

(25:37):
uh TCU fans and like what he was saying, well,
he might have run him down in the streets outside
of Chicago. I don't even see. I'm just hoping the
game is close. I don't even see him being close. Unfortunately.
I just think it's gonna be such a blowout it
I can't wait to see what the ratings are going
to be. Because if it's going to be a blowout
and again the New Year's Day thing or the you know,
New Year's Eve thing, Um, remember the first time around,

(25:59):
it could be just disastrous, you know what I mean? Well,
and that's the hard part, right you're trying to put
on in the end a television show. We talk about
it all year as we watch the rankings come down
each Tuesday, uh and wait and see how they move
and where the spreads are and everything. And then you're
you're hopeful that you do get the that they're actually

(26:22):
good games, but the reality is that you're going opposite
so much else now it doesn't become a hey, you
should just do it in a normal nine am kickoff
so you avoid anything into the evening. Pete Futech rejoins
us here at College Football News dot com. It's like cursed.
It's like curse to everybody made you know who I
don't like to me. Your in laws have spotty WiFi

(26:43):
and bad self service area. That's that's basically right right now.
But no, what I was saying, I think when I
lost you, there was like, look, as long as the
Michigan wins were okay because if Michigan wins, that it's
either Ohio State Part two and that has a hundred
million storylines there are they win and it's Georgia, and
then we get into the you know, Duke unlv basketball

(27:06):
references of what could possibly happen and that it takes
on an interest. Then you've got undefeated versus undefeated. Uh So,
either way, as a lot of the Michigan wins, we
had a good national championship at PCU wins, it'll be
a tough sell. Is that what you're thinking that the
George Ohio State game is gonna be close? I got
a ten point seven seven. You think it's gonna be
a higher scoreing than people expect. I think it's gonna

(27:28):
be way higher scoring. I think this Ohio State and
you have their offense was good against Michigan. That wasn't
the problem. The problem is, though, this is not the
Georgia defensive last year. It's just it's it's just not
it's very good and it's crazy, as the song, considering
they played Tennessee and and Oregon, they haven't faced anything
like this yet. And as I've joked you guys before,

(27:50):
there's three and a half teams out there that have
the same NFL talent Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State in the
USC offense, Ohio State's got the guys and you'll let
them in. And so this could be two thousand nineteen Alabama,
This could be two thousand fourteen o Howse State, where
the team that just so happens to be the four
seed has as much NFL talent as anybody else on

(28:11):
the field there. And yeah, as long as their line
tolled up, they can they can make this a game.
I think Georgia pulls it off because I'm not mad
enough to predict how State out right, but I wouldn't
be shocked if the buck I do this. We have
yet to have a repeat national champion in the College
Football Playoffs for a reason, and I don't think Michigan
is going to do it. But I do think O
how State could pete pulling back just to the bowl

(28:32):
season in general, outside of the fun and excitement that
we've had with Dion Sanders, is there anything that's stuck
out in this process other than last minute you know,
opt outs of games like the Minnesota Center and things
of that. ILK absolute disaster, and it just it just
is it shows the exhibition nature of this Try predicting

(28:55):
these games when you have teams that have h steven
missing stars and then all of a sudden the backup
actually decided to, you know, try really hard because they're
happy to be there. Uh, they're just not representative of
the season. And you know, it's almost worse because now
tomorrow we're gonna get Alabama with Bryce Young and Will
Anderson playing, and every time one of those guys get hit,

(29:17):
you're gonna craze and be like, oh, that might be
the number one pick in the draft, getting you know,
banged up. I mean, just it's just a bad process,
which I think gets skilled and changed by the expanded
college football playoffs because look, at the end of the day,
the ball stakes of the world aren't gonna have a
ton of opt outs. Uh is like the bigger teams will.
But it's still having fun games. I mean, these games

(29:39):
that have been pretty amazing. Game was good, the U
c l A game was amazing, and this Orange Bowl
hasn't been all that, you know, Pete, I heard the
University of Colorado agreed to start selling playoff tickets for
next year. I'm a thousand percent sold. Look, we've all
we all know how this happened. And for all the

(29:59):
bar can you talk good? I got there faster every
We've all heard the stories about you, Chuck Nolan, he
took over the Steelers, or Jimmy Johnson, we took over
the Cowboys. I was there at Wisconsin went Barry Olveras
took over. And we're gonna win championships here. Y'all are
gonna be here when we do. But we are going
to win championships here. And you just basically said if
I'm a Colorado fan, I'm like, yeah, I love these

(30:20):
college kids and everything, but yeah, bring them, bring the
guys who can play here. Let's let's get the good
players here. And I'm about to do that. College Football
News dot Com where you find them all the write ups,
predictive and analysis to college game and a little bit
of the NFL along the way at Pete few Tech
on Twitter joined us each and every week. Thanks for

(30:40):
being with us all this season. We can't wait to
break down the title game with you. Happy New Year
to your buddy. Thanks for stopping on Friday. Do it
go Blue, good luck. Let's have a good college Football Playoff.
Be sure to catch live editions of The Jason Smith
Show with Mike Harmon weekdays at ten pm Eastern, seven
pm Pacific. Hey, this is Jason mcin hi. Join me

(31:00):
every weekday morning on my podcast, Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre.
This isn't your typical sports pod pushing the same tired
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all the best guests. Do yourself a favor and listen
to Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre on the I Heart

(31:24):
Radio app, Apple Podcast, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Welcome back into the Fox Sports Radio Tailgate presented by
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(31:45):
at Big green egg dot com Lifetime warranty, free home delivery,
Big Green Egg. Not Calm joining us on the hotline
as he does each and every week, live and in
living color from beautiful Las Vegas, Nevada. Former odds maker
turn co founder of the Bet the Board podcast. Find
that at bet the Board Pod. That's damn right. Analyst

(32:06):
for CBS Sports h Q. More on Instagram Todd dot Ferman.
It at Twitter at Todd Ferman. It's our guy, Todd Ferman.
How buddy, what's going on? Gentlemen? And hey boys, before
we get things started tonight, Arnie. I know I do
nothing but typically take shots at you on a regular basis,
But as we sit here on the cusp of turning

(32:27):
in a new year, I have to give you a
world of credit. Sitting at twenty games over five hundred,
you've been a man of integrity, marking your picks down
and sharing them on social media. Barring an Owen four
day tomorrow or at least Owen three, as I look
at the picks here, you will at least have been
profitable this football season, something I never imagined was even possible. Really.

(32:48):
But that's not good enough though. You know when you
when you when you're doing your picture, you think you
always I could pick six or something like that, you
know what I mean? Yeah, you should be doing better
than fifty. I tell you all the time, how difficult
it really is. And just to put things in perspective, Arnie,
I calculate everything I do in sports betting. I can
tell you where every dollar I've wagered going all the

(33:09):
way back to two thousand thirteen is gone, win loss
record and everything else. My record as we sit here
on December thirty is about to turn the calendar for
the calendar year six fifty nine, five and thirty nine
a win percentage of fifty four point six. And let
me tell you, with the dollars that I'm able to
make off of that, it's a pretty healthy living. So

(33:32):
trying to achieve that fifty five to sixty threshold. If
I ever do that, I'll buy a Caribbean island. I'll
invite you in the white down to fine quality weekend
with love. It's all about the um. What do they say,
how much you bet each game? Right? You can't go crazy,
I guess exactly. It's all about money management. It's understanding
your opportunities when they exist, being able to figure out
your strengths and weaknesses based on sports events pricing. There

(33:55):
is so much that goes into the calculus to be
a professional sports better. But again, I gotta give you
full marks for sharing all the information throughout this football
season on social Well, no, that is one of the
things that you know you've had transparency on your side.
I love the fact that you're called earning a man
of integrity, will mark the tape because over his lifetime,
we've got a handful of those, uh in terms of

(34:17):
sports talk radio with the knee jerk reactions that we
have from him. But Todd to your point, you know,
just as you're looking at this and folks were legalizing, uh,
sports betting is coming into into vogue. That you know,
keeping track of what you're doing, the analysis and everything
is something most I would guess don't do except to

(34:38):
throw the losing tickets into a trash can exactly. I
think people that want to do this, even if you're
a recreational better it never hurts to jot down your
bets and have an understanding of where some of your
strengths and weaknesses are. And for most folks, and we
talk about all the time, are percent of people out
there should be doing this as a form of recreation
the same way they treat around the golf, going to
the movies or a show. If you happen to make

(35:00):
a little money. That's great, but only bet money you
can afford to lose. And let me put a caveat
on that. And again for Ernie, being a man of
integrity is one thing. Being a man whose opinion I
actually value when it comes to radio and everything else
is an entirely different kettle Affright, Let's get to Michigan
TCU they we ask you this. We talked about the
line change in the Georgia game. For a game that

(35:23):
everybody says that Michigan is going to blow them out,
that line is stated seven and a half for a
long time. You're surprised that it didn't go to eight
eight and a half for anything like that or what.
These are some of the most efficient markets that you're
going to see in college football all season long. And
it'll be very interesting tomorrow when you see professional betters
who are going to get five to six figure limits
to bet this game in particular, come in on the

(35:45):
contest and easier push push this number closer to a touchdown,
or drive this number further into no man's land where
it sits. And when you look at this number across
the board, seven and a half on the low end
upward debate and a half, So books have a ton
of flexibility until they have in fluential betters push them
one way or another. You know, we talked about this
number when it was first tongue when they announced that
college football playoff field on that first Sunday back in December,

(36:09):
and this price. You could have had ten if you
laid a little bit of juice. But oddsmakers aren't in
the business of offering up a lot of value and
opportunity in games of this magnitude. So we did see
a group that I really respect coming on Michigan laying
the seven and a half earlier. Today the total has
taked down a touch from fifty nine and a half
to fifty eight. And it's a game, guys, that I
probably won't bet, but one that I'll be fascinated to

(36:30):
watch to see how TCU handles a level of physicality
against the Michigan offensive and defensive line that they don't
encounter game in game out in the Big Twelve, and
more importantly, how that three through five defense will be
able to stop the run and potentially make Michigan one
dimensional if they're going to have any success. Todd let
me bagging out to the market place as a whole
here over the holiday holiday holiday season, we watched it

(36:52):
and I've brought it up with Arnie and part of
it gives my Chicago roots that crighton the Paul game
that drew three million viewers and we watched the Bowl
and is all competitive today when when we talk about
handle and appetite for the college Bowl games, where where
are we at this year? More along the lines of
trying to question the mental capacity of the three billion

(37:12):
people that wanted to make the Paul games appointment viewing.
This coming from someone who grew up at the Rosemond
Horizons and had season tickets going all the way back
into the early eighties when De Paul was actually relevant
schler and head coach Ray Meyer before he handed the
baton off to Joey Meyer, Rod Strickland and some of
those other players who at least had n c A

(37:33):
tournament first and their sites. But when you look at
betting handle, there is no doubt people are home for
the holidays. They're looking for ways to pass the time,
and that's why the major TV players obviously create this
extensive Bowl menu. We look at the attendance numbers that
are rather sparse, but that doesn't diminish the value and
what they had to the sports calendar. College football in
the NFL are always going to be king. They're gonna

(37:53):
trump regular season basketball, the NHL, everything else you can
think of, as long as there is a game in
a standalone time spot. And when you look at the
quartette of matchups tomorrow, Iowa Kentucky along with Kanadas State
Alabama will serve as or dervs um TCU Michigan will
kind of provide a decent course, and then the main
event will be Ohio State Georgia. The betting handles, though

(38:15):
on the buck Eyes and Bulldogs maybe a little bit
diminished knowing that it kicks off at eight o'clock Eastern
on New Year's Eve, where a lot of people are
getting themselves ready for a night on the town, more
so than committing to actually watching this game from start
to finish. We talked about the line move on that game.
Was that big move? Was that big gline movement? Because
and went from six and a half the six? That
game didn't move either, and um, which way is it

(38:35):
going to move? Before kickoff? And I think professional betters
couldn't wait they tipped their hand earlier today, and that move,
Arnie is pret substantial, honestly, when you see the six
and a half disappear to six, knowing that books are
going to take on pretty big liability going to the
Georgia Bulldogs. A lot of the shops that I've talked to,
they're seeing about eight percent of the tickets on that game,
so eight out of every ten bets being placed coming

(38:56):
in on the favorite. They've told me that people are
parlaying George in to Michigan, whether it's on the money
line or teasers, essentially the same thing in this particular spot.
Thinking that we've seen a rash of favorites win and
cover in the college football Playoffs semifinals, but Ohio State
Georgia is truly a matchup of heavyweights because before the
season started, uh, these were two teams picked to finish

(39:16):
one two in the polls, with Alabama right there as well.
And when you look at the way the number has moved,
if this game was played in early November, you'd have
been looking at a number right around to pick them. Obviously,
Georgia finishes with a flourish. The last data point we
have for Ohio State is them looking absolutely woeful in
their ability to stop the run against Michigan, And here
we are with a number that I still see as

(39:37):
a touch in freighted. I know what my numbers are
for this game. They're much closer to five than they
were to six and a half. But I couldn't run
to bed Ohio State because I worry about the physicality
or the lack of the run for the Buckeyes along
the defensive line. And quite frankly, I don't love C. J.
Stroud's ability to work from a dirty pocket. If Georgia
can generate pressure and make things a little bit more
difficult for the talented pivot wearing scarlet and gray Fox

(39:59):
Sports Right Jason Spitz Show with Me, Mike Rman, Arnie
Span You're in for Jason Smith from the tire Act
dot com Studios are Buddy Todd Ferman. Bet the Board
podcast is where you find it downloaded. Make it part
of your listening habits. You'll be all the smarter for
it and perhaps be able to cash an extra ticket
or two at the window, or at least a bar
bet against your friends and family as you roll through

(40:19):
these holidays. UH and the end of the regular season
for the National Football League. Follow him on Twitter at
Todd Ferman also does some Instagram live on Sunday mornings,
giving you an idea where the money and the plays
are between the public and the pros, making you again smarter.
I had a kickoff maybe also helping in your fantasy
lineups to that degree. And one of the games from

(40:42):
one CJ to another. Uh, Jacksonville three point favorites on
the road at Houston, love you Smith three and oh
against Trevor Lawrence and Doug Peterson saying hey, we want
to play to win the game. Uh. Do we see
C J. Bethard in this one? Or is Trevor Lawrence
truly gonna get the full work? I think C. A.
Bettor is much more likely to be your starter on Sunday.

(41:02):
So if Trevor Lawrence is a guy that you have
penciled into kind of when you have fantasy Championship, you
may want to look for some secondary options out there.
We obviously saw his name pop up on the injury
report today with that toe injury. I think it'll give
the Jacksonville Jaguars a very convenient excuse given what we
saw from the Tennessee Titans, and this is a number
where you saw the Jags open as a five five
and a half point favorite number tickdown to a field goal.

(41:24):
If Lawrence is officially upgraded, then you're stealing betting Jackson'sville
minus the three. If Lawrence is downgraded to being out
or highly doubtful, this number will trend even closer to
pick him. So at this point it's kind of the
Houston Texans are past, but probably wouldn't run to get involved.
Now with the number sitting at a field goal, bookmakers
and betters doing all their fair share of guests work
trying to figure out exactly what this Jaguar starting eleven

(41:47):
will look like, especially on the offensive side of the
ball come Sunday, Todd, But I don't understand is when
Brad Party came in for San Francisco, not a lot
of line changed from him to Jimmy G or from
Jimmy G to him. Why the big line chain from
Teddy b from to I mean, if two is just
an average quarterback anyway, Teddy Beach should be able to
come in and control the offense. You're getting two and

(42:08):
a half with Miami, they were a point and a
half to two point favorite. What what are you going
with this one? It's a great question, Arnie, and one
that I think the market has shown some level of
disagreement when you look at the way this number has moved.
It did get into England a full field goal favorite.
Uh and that's when betters and limits started arise later
in the week said this is too big a bridge
to cross for the New England Patriots and that's why

(42:29):
we're sitting at two and a half here. You look
at Teddy Bridgewater so far this season, those data points
have a lot of noise in the numbers. The performance
against the Minnesota Vikings, the fact he took one snap
against the Jets. There's no doubt that Miami's offense will
look significantly different with Teddy Bridgewater than too. I'm not
sure you're going to see nearly as many deep shots
to Jalen Waddle and Tyreek Kill. But he can be

(42:49):
a game manager. He can operate underneath with ruthless efficiency
and look to get the ball out of his hands quickly.
And the luxury the Dolphins have here that they wouldn't
against a lot of teams in the league. The biggest
issue that they have on the defensive side of the
ball is their secondary, but New England doesn't offer much
in the way of a vertical passing game, and their
offensive line has been a little bit poorous for stretches.
If the Dolphins can generate a pressure, it's gonna mask

(43:10):
some of those deficiencies on the back end. And despite
Miami coming into this game in a four game losing streak,
the only way for me to look would be towards
the Dolphins as a short road underdog looking to try
and get that elusive ninth wins. Alright, last one for me.
Todd the anti hero trying to find his way into
the playoffs. The Packers three point favorites, with Minnesota coming
into town, obviously dome team into the cold, Packers surging um.

(43:36):
Vikings fans just keep saying everybody's disrespecting them and trying
to ignore logic. Can you explain it to everyone, like
we're five year olds, Well, I mean they should be
disrespecting the Vikings. I mean their point differential in the
season is plus five. It is historically relevant because it
is the worst point to point differential for a team
that has twelve wins through their first fifteen games. You
look at how they performed in one score contest at

(43:57):
eleven or Oh, that's not sustainable through the course of
an eighteen week regular season. We'll see when that catches
up to them in the postseason. But at the same time,
I think three and a half was a big number
for the Green Bay l A and it's part of
the reason that that price has disappeared and you're seeing
the number trend towards the field goal. I know people
are bullish on the Packers given their three game winning streak,
as they went from four and eight with less than

(44:18):
a one percent probability of making the playoffs to a
little north of thirty. But you look at the teams
that they've beaten during that win streak. You beat the
beleaguered Bears on the road at Soldier Field, and we
know Aaron Rodgers goes in there and owns that place.
They took care of the Rams on Monday night football
and frigid temperatures, a Rams team that's week along the
offensive and defensive line, and they're down to ten and

(44:39):
it's not until the Raheem Mosterr fumble with a couple
of minutes ago in the first half that they were
able to get a lifeline, a rally before the break,
and then dealing against they can cuss to a that
we saw that manifest in the fourth quarter. So a
lot of asterisks by green base three game winning streak.
We know Aaron Rodgers is capable of herculean feet, especially
with his back against the wall. But I think for

(44:59):
the first time in a while, Minnesota is a little
bit undervalued here. That's why the three and a half disappeared.
And to put things in perspective, guys, before the year,
when these two teams were completely own blemish, hadn't played
a single game, green Bay was a six and a
half point favorite on a look ahead number four. This
week's seventeen matchup, here we are with Minnesota running away
with the division, green Bay fighting to get to five hundred,

(45:22):
and it's still the Packers right around that three three
and a half point favorite. I think that's in big
an indictment of where Minnesota is despite this gaudy record
as much as anything else. But I do think they're
a little bit undervalued here for their trip to Landow.
You know, Todd, it's the last thing for me I
always wanted. I always have the stream that I bet
ten thousand dollars on a on a future that was

(45:42):
a hundred to one. I wanted and I want a
million dollars, but I never know how much to tip.
How much do you tip on that? I mean, if
you're taking home a million dollars and it's better to
air on the side of being overly generous. I have
never been in that spot myself, but I think when
you look at you know, when you look at two
to three percent, I think that is a very fair
rate ending them out on a nice night on the town, dinner, drinks,

(46:05):
and a variety of other things. So the day that
you end up landing that hundred one shot for ten k,
they're going to be ticket writers and sports book supervisors,
whether they're out here in Las Vegas or in another
legalized jurisdiction that are able to build a shrine to
you and thank Alti Spanier for one of the best
nights they've ever had. Behind I was, I was worried
I'd have to give ten percent. I'm happy sip out like, yeah,

(46:30):
ten percent is a little bit aggressive. I don't think
anybody's cutting in a check for a hundred thousand, and
I know they're ticket writers out there who are probably
using four letter words to describe my behavior right now.
Thrilled to walk away with three to five if somebody
had that kind of windfall. The best there is the
excellence of elocution, making us all a smarter public. As

(46:50):
we head to the windows this weekend, it's our buddy,
Todd Ferman. That's a board podcast where you find of
Todd as always, Thanks for being part of the show,
being a friend, and happy to year to you, buddy.
Thank you, happy and healthy new year. Do you guys
as well? Enjoy the college football semifinals in week seventeen. Gents,