Hour 4 – The Playoff Is Practically Here

Mike and Arnie preview tomorrow’s College Football Playoff action, Todd Fuhrman of the BetTheBoard podcast joins the show, some fun stories in the world of sports, and more!

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Episode Transcript

Speaker 1 (00:00):
Thanks for listening to The Jason Smith Show with Mike
Harmon podcast. Be sure to catch us live every week
night ten pm to two a m Eastern seven to
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(00:23):
You're listening to Fox Sports Radio. Oh, it's a beautiful
Friday night here Fox Sports Radio. The final weeknight edition
of The Jason Smith Show with Mike Armen for the
County or two. I can do a big retrospective. I
can do a bunch of good, bad, ugly bad compredictions

(00:44):
gone wrong. What's the what's the point? You don't like that? No, No,
I don't think there's any point to it. I mean,
I just want to move on to the new year.
I mean, I can pete cock a little bit about
some predictions gone right, but certainly there's plenty that's gone wrong.
Then life for the airing of grievances here behind the
scenes at Fox Sports Radio. The decided lack of meat

(01:07):
sticks for some people. I mean, there's lots of things
that we could go into aren'tie, But there's just no point. No,
I'm glad we're getting out. I'm ready. Let's go solid here.
We got some great, great events mixed in daughters and
I had some fun, some big milestones. We're sticking around
here at Fox Sports Radio a little bit longer. I

(01:28):
get to Torment Smith about his Jets, Nix and Mets
a little bit longer, especially when the Mets spent all
that money and well they'll still lose, or at least
that's the hope I think of the larger sporting universe
based on the amount of money spent. Right, they hate
watching has begun, Well, they hate watching is begun for

(01:48):
the people that root for a lousy t is because
they know their team is not gonna get into it. Well,
then at that point they just stopped paying attention. They
start looking at things that are on the white board
that they need to tend to. It's like, you know
what that ten am kickoff here on the West Coast,
I might have to go do yardwork. You keep saying

(02:08):
how what a big fan Jason Smith is of the
Mets and the Jets and all that stuff. There's really
only three criteria to be to be a big fan.
First of all, do you have any siblings named like
Shay or name you're trying to do that well, just
because you conned your wife into naming your exactly exactly

(02:29):
if you've never been paid for that ever since? Though?
What about if you have a dog or a cat
named after somebody on the team. Do you have at
least that going. I'm not a cat guy, but yeah,
have at it, okay, because if you don't have that,
then you're not really a fan. I just get a
tattoo of the Socks logo onto and go from there.

(02:51):
If you don't have a tattoo of your favorite team
or player on your body, then then you're really not
a fan. So it's got to be one of the
There you go. Maybe maybe I'll get one of those
three in the coming year once Quadzilla re emerges. We
were actually just talking about tattoos here in the UH
radio studios. Tisher is all tatted up, he's sleeved, and

(03:12):
eventually he's gonna look like those guys in to get
his book a world record. He's got him across all
that stuff. Ponder that UH Alex tischert are technical producer
Bo Benson pondering if he's gonna get one. I've got
a designed that I think I finally reconciled that I
haven't hate well. I mean, look, there were always points

(03:33):
in your life where you're pondering. I mean, a little
picture of Greg Lozinski would have been cool now, but
I don't have to explain to people who the hell
baby bowl? Because back when I was playing baseball, let's
just say I was the sizeable look at you, I was.
I got a tattoo five years ago on my left

(03:53):
arm that said Fox Sports Radio. Did you really? Yes?
I did. But it was one of those Hannah tattoos.
You know what I'm talking. Yeah, Because I have a
little tattoo comes that comes off after a while, I
can print out, you know, lines of text and whatever.
Is that the same if your tattoo is not permanent.
I don't know. Now. If you're not permanently, there's gotta

(04:15):
be more. I mean, because I mean, that is one
thing we can all agree and stipulate to here late
out of Friday night, is that our love of our teams,
and let's face it in sports radio. And I wonder
if you agree with this, because this is one of
my long held tenants to all of this. It's like,
to do our job, you have to be a fan
of the games, players, managers, coaches, whatever drew you, and

(04:38):
that never leaves. I don't care how many years you
do this. You may not have the same emphasis and
and like stop everything down on a dime because your
team is playing in some random game in the in
the Bahamas at three am. Uh, your your time or whatever.
I get that, but it still has meaning to you.
So when folks in our industry said, you know what,

(05:00):
I had to give up my fan card when I
started doing this, Like, I don't buy it for me. No, No,
I don't think you're lying. You You may have reined
it in a little bit in terms of your ability
to go out and act like a drunken fool, paint
your face and act like an acid tailgates, But uh
that And don't tell me you're not still watching those
teams with bated breath hoping for great success. Yeah. No,

(05:21):
you're the only reason you have to give up your
fan fan fanship is if you're an official or something
like that. Just when you get into this industry or
this business. Um, you don't have to do something like that.
My first experience. I used to go with my mom
down to New York to the Medison Square Garden to
see the Knicks play. We wait for the game to start, Um,
get cheap tickets because we couldn't really afford it, and said,

(05:42):
way up on top and go watch the Knicks, you know,
once a week or something like that. Um, great times, absolutely,
fantastic time. It's what we used to do the three
level at the old Chicago Stadium. You know, we go
get a copy of the blue line where they'd be
cursing out dollar Bill Wortz and all of those things.
And then you basically had to keep an eye on
your feet for fear that you might get bitten by

(06:03):
a rat while you were sitting up there. But think
you have standing room two up down. That place was raucous.
If you wanted to go there, you could. You could
get in back in the old day for standing room.
I don't know when they started that, but um, I
mean you could just go for the experience if you want.
It was a couple of bucks. It costs you nothing.

(06:25):
I remember the bleacher tickets at old Kamiskey to show
my AIGs. They were a buck. And then we used
to get a lot of tickets because they had all
those programs through the schools. You got straight A's do
a lot of games for free. When when they used
to have six preseason games in football, if we get
to seven up cans, you'd get a ticket to Sam's
Cowboys game. It was the l a times. Um. You know,

(06:48):
preseason game was like the fifth week of the season
and they'd meet the Cowboys every time. It was I
mean for the people that couldn't afford real tickets, we
used to go to that all the time. You know,
still an experience still is now and that's the thing
we always have to remember. As as much as we
may bemoan their existence, etcetera, it's still an opportunity. And
for some of these players, maybe they catch on, maybe

(07:09):
they don't, but you remember their college careers and it's
an opportunity to see live, live events. Like that's a
big thing. My daughters and I it's it's concerts and
concerts we we go to a good number. I get
it is an important thing. Like we don't go out
to eat a bunch. I generally do cooking. You go
to the theater all over the place. Yeah, I'll go

(07:31):
to a rock concert one week. The next week we
watched um Richard Thomas do uh Atticus Fitch Death of
a Salesman as rewritten for the stage by a Wow
that comes to your town. You should go see it too.
It was brilliant because as it gets in, like obviously
when you're you're looking at to Kill a mocking Bird,

(07:52):
there is a lot of a lot of tension that
builds up. But the way he's rewritten the script, there's
always that safety valve of a one liner from one
of the characters to to let that air out. It's great.
The big the big name we have here. I went
to go see Daniel Tosh. That's what we get up
here in Broie did Vermont. I remember Tosh Tosh? Oh yeah?
And do you remember? I mean's still big. What do
you remember him when he was starting over at the

(08:13):
comedy store over here when you go in the middle
of the night after Yeah, all of that stuff. So
good things. Hey tomorrow, semifinal games in this college football campaign,
We're finally there. The bowl games today were mostly fantastic.
I gotta say we we got some some really solid contests.

(08:34):
If you sat and watched like I I said, earlier
in the show. My daughter and I watched those uh
the final quarter of U c l A uh and
pit with bated breath. And final minute you get the
go ahead score followed by a fuel goal try. And
she's still getting used to yellow lines, red lines, what
they mean whatever? And they had it up on the

(08:55):
screen and we were far enough, which because what does
that mean? I go, oh, like three yards away from
poten field goal range? Because wait, they're gonna lose. How
they're gonna lose this game? And like she's from no
interest to suddenly it was the end of the world.
I didn't see the last couple of plays. I know
that Pittsburgh picked up a chunk I think like fifty
yards to get in the field goal range. Um right

(09:16):
before the big big run right up the gut, just
carried a couple of guys with him, uh and and
and down it went. But just fantastic sliding games. Tomorrow
we get the two big boys that we've been waiting on.
Michigan eight point favorite right now with TCU, and then
the nightcap is Georgia, a six point favorite. Ohio State.

(09:38):
Ohio State has been a minute since we've seen them,
and the last time we saw them, they were getting
run over like all wrestlers in the eighties by whole comania. Um.
You know, the the Michigan TCU game. Everybody predicting that
it's going to be a blot of Michigan now with
seven point favorite, but the over under is fifty eight,
which goes to show you, um, that TCU defense isn't

(10:00):
even gonna be able to slow it out in Michigan.
I'm like everybody else, I think it's gonna go ahead
and um be like a forty three seventeen game. Um,
Michigan is just gonna be too much for them to handle.
The big the Big twelve is at a pretty good year.
But um, when you're going up in a class like
it is a taking out of Michigan, that's a whole

(10:20):
different story out there. Don't see tc You even keeping
in a close love Michigan landing the points And I
I liked the over in the game too. Yeah. And
as we were talking about a little bit earlier, like
we had Pete fear teck On and you get into
the idea of the emotion of regret as put forth
by McCarthy, and you can laugh. It's like Ah, you're

(10:41):
in your early twenties. What do you know about it? Like, no, no, no,
they they had a big season and then they got
punched in the mouth repeatedly. That sticks with you and
you watched them over the course of this season, the
level of consistency with which they've played. A couple of
near misses, because you're gonna have those games that you
have to grind out, but overall, you've watched great consistency

(11:03):
in their play, and the run game has been spectacular,
even when you start substituting in second third string guys.
And what they did to Ohio State in the second
half of that game, that's that's just etched into the
brain of bully ball on a whole other level and
where it's like, all right, is he gonna call off
the dogs after a while? I've never seen the pick

(11:25):
up so many big players like that, um and in
years I mean the thirty forty big chunk players like
that where especially like you mentioned, they had injury at
the running back position. But I mean they were just
doing whatever they wanted. They just flixed their muscle against
Ohio State. I didn't even expect for them to, you know,
beat them. That bad. And then you look at the
Ohio State game against Georgia. Ohio State comes in averaging

(11:47):
nearly forty five points per game. C. J. Stroud. Uh
And and what you're you're looking about with Williams will
be back in the run game over eight hundred yards
thirteam touchdowns. Uh, So you've got some opportunity here. And
then Georgia defensively not the same squad they were a

(12:07):
year ago, but once again it's there's to lose and
the buck guys getting in. I know, there's a lot
of handwringing and people going fatalistic about the inevitable move
here and two twelve teams, we can't even get a fourth.
It's like someone's got to be fourth. You know, you're
never gonna be happy a percent with who that last

(12:29):
team is as soon as losses are involved, what loss
is better? Is it better to lose in September versus
November or early December and all of those kind of things, right,
because do you you see you lost a game, but they've
already beaten their opponents, So you know it's it's that
kind of thing. Uh. And for the Buck Eyes again
averaging nearly forty five points. Per game, and a reminder

(12:51):
to everybody out there, as much as you may hate
hearing it, it is a TV show. And what did
the buck Eys bring eyeballs positive because of the huge
alumni base. And second hate watching for the fact that
you've watched a lot of Buckeye football over the last
what thirty years forty years on network television. So yeah,

(13:11):
you get the big eyeball test there as well. Uh,
and enough to move the needle. Yeah, Georgia has a
good defense. Um, They're not as great as everybody thought
they were gonna be, but there's still gonna be good
enough to slow down Ohio State a little bit. Ohio
States defense big trouble. I mean, like you said, you
saw what they did against Michigan. By the way, big
news in this game for all week, not all week.
For the very beginning, when we found out the matchups

(13:35):
of the four team playoffs, the line was seven and
a half for Michigan, six and a half for Georgia.
The line is finally changed down to six. Big money
coming in on Ohio State. Um, so that moved it
down a half a point. I thought eventually would get
to seven, but no, um, now down to six. I'm
wondering if anything's going to change in the Michigan TCU game.

(13:57):
I I probably doubt if anything, Miss again will probably
go up to like eight or nine during or before kickoff. Yeah,
looking at the buck eyed Georgia line history going back
to the fourth of December, opened at minus seven and
sixty one. Now we're looking at minus six and sixty
two and a half total. Yah, big money this afternoon

(14:19):
and that was and that was today that the money
came in that lower to the half a point from
six and a half down the six. So I think
what they were doing is waiting to see if they
can get the extra half point with Ohio State. That
wasn't gonna happen. That's a long time to wait for
some of these professionals out there, considering that you didn't
think that Georgia was going to be the seven point favorite.
I thought maybe they would, but a lot of people

(14:40):
didn't think. If you go all the way back with
bet online a g the total has actually moved out
a full two and a half points since it was
first posted. Be sure to catch live editions of The
Jason Smith Show with Mike Harmon weekdays at ten pm
Eastern seven pm Pacific on Fox Sports Radio and the
I Heart Radio App. Welcome back into the Fox Sports

(15:02):
Radio Tailgate presented by the Big Green Egg. Nothing beats
the flavor of live fire cooking on a Big Green Egg,
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(15:22):
on the hotline as he does each and every week,
live and in living color from beautiful Las Vegas, Nevada.
Former odds maker turn co founder of the Bet the
Board podcast. Find that at Bet the Board Pod. That's
damn right. Analyst for CBS Sports h Q. More on
Instagram Todd dot Ferman It at Twitter at Todd Ferman.

(15:44):
It's our guy, Todd Ferman. Hi buddy, what's going on? Gentlemen?
And hey boys? Before we get things started tonight, Arnie.
I know I do nothing but typically take shots at
you on a regular basis, But as we sit here
on the cusp of turning in a new year, I
have to give you a world of cray it. Sitting
at twenty games over five hundred. You've been a man
of integrity, marking your picks down and sharing them on

(16:06):
social media. Barring an OWEN four day tomorrow or at
least Owen three, as I look at the picks here,
you will at least have been profitable this football season,
something I never imagine was even possible. Really, But that's
not good enough though. You know when you when you
when you're doing your picture, you think you always I
could pick six or something like that. You know what
I mean, You you should be doing better than I

(16:30):
tell you all the time how difficult it really is.
And just to put things in perspective, Arnie, I calculate
everything I do in sports betting. I can tell you
where every dollar I've wagered going all the way back
to two thousand thirteen is gone, win loss record and
everything else. My record as we sit here on December
thirty is about to turn the calendar for the calendar
year six fifty nine, five and thirty nine a win

(16:54):
percentage of fifty four point six percent. And let me
tell you, with the dollars that I'm able to make
off of that, it's a pretty healthy living. So Ie,
that threshold if I ever do that, I'll buy a
Caribbean island. I'll invite you in the wife down to
Fede Quality Weekend with I love. It's all about the um.
What do they say, how much you bet each game? Right?

(17:14):
You can't go crazy? I guess exactly. It's all about
money management. It's understanding your opportunities when they exist, being
able to figure out your strengths and weaknesses based on
sports events pricing. There is so much that goes into
the calculus to be a professional sports better. But again,
I gotta give you full marks for sharing all the
information throughout this football season on social Well, no, that
is one of the things that you know you've had

(17:35):
transparency on your side. I love the fact that you
called Earning a man of integrity. Will mark the tape
because over his lifetime, we've got a handful of those,
uh in terms of sports talk radio with the knee
jerk reactions that we have from him. But Todd to
your point, you know, just as you're looking at this
and folks where legalizing sports betting is coming into a vogue,

(18:00):
that you know, keeping track of what you're doing, the
analysis and everything is something most I would guess don't
do except to throw the losing tickets into a trash
can exactly. I think people that want to do this,
even if you're a recreational better, it never hurts to
jot down your bets and have an understanding of where
some of your strengths and weaknesses are. And for most folks,
and we talked about all the time, are percent of

(18:23):
people out there should be doing this as a form
of recreation the same way they treat around a golf,
going to the movies or a show. If you happen
to make a little money, that's great, but only bet
money you can afford to lose. And let me put
a caveat on that. And again for Arnie, being a
man of integrity is one thing. Being a man whose
opinion I actually value when it comes to radio and
everything else is an entirely different kettle of thing. I

(18:46):
love it. Alright, let's get to Michigan, TCU. Let me
ask you this. We talked about the line change in
the Georgia game. For a game that everybody says that
Michigan is going to blow them out, that line is
stated seven half. For a long time. You're surprised that
it didn't go to eight eight and a half or
anything like that or what. These are some of the
most efficient markets that you're gonna see in college football
all season long. And it'll be very interesting tomorrow when

(19:08):
you see professional betters who are going to get five
to six figure limits to bet this game in particular
coming on the contest and ease are push push this
number closer to a touchdown or drive this number further
into no man's land where it sits. And when you
look at this number across the board, seven and a
half on the low end upwards of eight and a half.
So books have a ton of flexibility until they have

(19:29):
influential betters pushed them one way or another. You know,
we talked about this number when it was first tongue
when they announced that college football playoff field on that
first Sunday back in December, and this price, you could
have had ten if you laid a little bit of juice.
But oddsmakers aren't in the business of offering up a
lot of value and opportunity in games of this magnitude.
So we did see a group that I really respect

(19:50):
coming on Michigan laying the seven and a half earlier. Today,
the total has taked down a touch from fifty nine
and a half to fifty eight. And it's a game, guys,
that I probably won't bet, but one that I'll be
fascinated to watch to see how TCU handles a level
of physicality against the Michigan offensive and defensive line that
they don't encounter game in game out in the Big Twelve,
And more importantly, how that three through five defense will

(20:10):
be able to stop the run and potentially make Michigan
one dimensional if they're going to have any success. Todd,
let me backing out to the marketplace as a whole
here over the holiday holiday holiday season, we watched it
and I've brought it up with Arnie, and part of
it gives my Chicago roots, that Craighton de Paul game
that drew three million viewers, and we watched the bowl
games all competitive. Today when when we talk about handle

(20:33):
and appetite for the college bowl games, where where are
we at this year? More along the lines of trying
to question the mental capacity of the three million people
that wanted to make the Paul games appointment viewing. It's
coming from someone who grew up at the Rosemont Horizons
and had season tickets going all the way back into
the early eighties when De Paul was actually relevant dealer

(20:54):
and head coach Ray Meyer before he handed the BA
ton of to Joey Meyer, Rod Strickland, some of those
other players who at least had n c A tournament
firsts in their sites. But when you look at betting handle,
there is no doubt. And people are home for the holidays.
They're looking for ways to pass the time, and that's
why the major TV players obviously create this extensive bull menu.
We look at the attendance numbers that are rather sparse,

(21:16):
but that doesn't diminish the value and what they add
to the sports calendar. College football in the NFL are
always going to be king. They're gonna trump regular season basketball,
the NHL, everything else you can think of, as long
as there is a game in a standalone time spot.
And when you look at the corquette of matchups tomorrow,
Iowa Kentucky along with Kanada State Alabama will serve as
or dervs um TCU Michigan will kind of provide a

(21:40):
decent course, and then the main event will be Ohio
State Georgia. The betting handles, though on the Buckeyes and Bulldogs,
maybe a little bit diminished, knowing that it kicks off
at eight o'clock Eastern on New Year's Eve, where a
lot of people are getting themselves ready for a night
on the town, more so than committing to actually watching
this game from start to finish. We talked about the
line move on that game. Was that big move? Was
that big line movement? Because and went from six and

(22:01):
a half to six? That game didn't move either, and um,
which way is it going to move? Before kickoff? I
think professional betters couldn't wait. They tipped their hand earlier
today and that move, Arnie is pre substantial. Honestly, when
you see the six and a half disappear to six,
knowing that books are going to take on pretty big
liability going to the Georgia Bulldogs. A lot of the
shops that I've talked to they're seeing about the tickets

(22:23):
on that game, so eight out of every ten bets
being placed coming in on the favorite. They've told me
that people are parlaying Georgia to Michigan, whether it's on
the money line or teasers, essentially the same thing. In
this particular spot, Thinking that we've seen a rash of
favorites win and cover in the college football Playoffs semifinals.
But Ohio State Georgia is truly a matchup of heavyweights
because before the season started, uh, these were two teams

(22:45):
picked to finish one two in the polls, with Alabama
right there as well. And when you look at the
way the number has moved, if this game was played
in early November, you'd have been looking at a number
right around to pick them. Obviously, Georgia finishes with a
flourish The last data point we have for Ohio State
them looking absolutely woeful in their ability to stop the
run against Michigan, and here we are with a number

(23:06):
that I still see as a touch inflated. I know
what my numbers are for this game. They're much closer
to five than they were to six and a half.
But I couldn't run to bed Ohio State because I
worry about the physicality or the lack they are for
the Buckeyes along the defensive line, and quite frankly, I
don't love C. J. Stroud's ability to work from a
dirty pocket. If Georgia con generate pressure and make things
a little bit more difficult for the talented pivot wearing

(23:28):
Scarlett and Gray, Fox Sports Radio, Jason Spitz Show with Me,
Mike Rman, Arnie Span You're in for Jason Smith from
the tire Act dot Com studios are Buddy Todd Ferman.
Bet the Board podcast is where you find it downloaded.
Make it part of your listening habits. You'll be all
the smarter for it and perhaps be able to cash
an extra ticket or two at the wind or at
least a bar bet against your friends and family as

(23:48):
you roll through these holidays, uh and the end of
the regular season for the National Football League. Follow him
on Twitter at Todd Ferman also does some Instagram live
on Sunday mornings, giving you an idea where the money
and the plays are between the public and the pros,
making you again smarter. I had a kickoff maybe also
helping in your fantasy lineups to that degree. And one

(24:11):
of the games from one CJ to another Jacksonville three
point favorites on the road at Houston, Love you Smith
three and oh against Trevor Lawrence and Doug Peterson saying Hey,
we want to play to win the game. Uh. Do
we see c. J. Bethard in this one? Or is
Trevor Lawrence truly going to get the full work. I
think C. J. Bethard is much more likely to be

(24:31):
your starter on Sunday. So if Trevor Lawrence is a
guy that you have penciled into kind of whin you
have Fantasy Championship, you may want to look for some
secondary options out there. We obviously saw his name pop
up on the injury report today with that toe injury.
I think it'll give the Jacksonville Jaguars a very convenient
excuse given what we saw from the Tennessee Titans. And
this is a number where you saw the Jags open
as a five five and a half point favorite number

(24:53):
kicked down to a field goal. If Lawrence is officially upgraded,
then you're stealing betting Jackson'sville minus the three. If Lawrence
is down grade it to being out or highly doubtful, uh,
this number will trend even closer to pick him. So
at this point it's kind of the Houston Texans are
past but probably wouldn't run to get involved. Now with
the number sitting at a field goal, bookmakers and betters
doing all their fair share of guests work trying to

(25:14):
figure out exactly what this Jaguar starting eleven will look like,
especially on the offensive side of the ball come Sunday, Todd.
But I don't understand is when Brad Party came in
for San Francisco, not a lot of line changed from
him to Jimmy G or from Jimmy G to him.
Why the big line changed from Teddy b from tah
I mean, if twas just an average quarterback anyway, Teddy

(25:34):
Beach should be able to come in and control the offense.
You're getting two and a half with Miami, they were
a point and a half to two point favorite. What
what are you going with this one? It's a great
question already and one that I think the market has
shown some level of disagreement when you look at the
way this number has moved. It did gets into England
full field goal favorite. Uh And that's when betters and
limits started arise later in the week, said this is

(25:55):
too big a bridge to cross for the New England
Patriots and that's why we're sitting at two and a half.
You're you look at Teddy Bridgewater so far this season,
those data points have a lot of noise in the numbers.
The performance against the Minnesota Vikings, the fact he took
one snap against the Jets. There's no doubt that Miami's
offense will look significantly different with Teddy Bridgewater than two.
I'm not sure you're gonna see nearly as many deep

(26:16):
shots to Jalen Waddle and Tyreek Kill. But he can
be a game manager. He can operate underneath with ruthless
efficiency and look to get the ball out of his
hands quickly. And the luxury that Dolphins have here that
they wouldn't against a lot of teams in the league.
The biggest issue that they have on the defensive side
of the ball is their secondary but New England doesn't
offer much in the way of a vertical passing game,
and their offensive line has been a little bit poorous

(26:37):
for stretches. If the Dolphins can generate pressure, it's gonna
mask some of those deficiencies on the back end. And
despite Miami coming into this game in a four game
losing streak, the only way for me to look would
be towards the Dolphins as a short road underdog looking
to try and get that elusive ninth wins. Alright, last
one for me, Todd the anti hero trying to find
his way into the playoffs. The Packers three point favorites

(26:58):
with Minnesota coming into town, obviously Dome team into the
cold Packers surging. Um. Vikings fans just keep saying everybody's
disrespecting them and trying to ignore logic. Can you explain
it to everyone, like we're five year olds, Well, I
mean they should be disrespecting the Vikings. I mean their
point differential in the season is plus five. It is
historically relevant because it is the worst point to point

(27:20):
differential for a team that has twelve wins through their
first fifteen games. You look at how they've performed in
one score contest at eleven or Oh, that's not sustainable
through the course of an eighteen week regular season. We'll
see when that catches up to them in the postseason.
But at the same time, I think three and a
half was a big number for the Green Bay b
l A, and it's part of the reason that that
price has disappeared and you're seeing the number trend towards

(27:42):
the field goal. I know people are bullish on the
Packers given their three game winning streak, as they went
from four and eight with less than a one percent
of probability of making the playoffs to a little north
of thirty. But you look at the teams that they've
beaten during that win streak. You beat the beleaguered Bears
on the road at Soldier Field, and we know Aaron
Rodgers goes in there and owns the place. They took
care of the Rams on Monday night football and frigid temperatures.

(28:04):
A Rams team that's week along the offensive and defensive line,
and they're down ten and it's not until the Raheem
Moster fumble with a couple of minutes ago in the
first half that they were able to get a lifeline.
It rallied before the break and then dealing against they
can cuss to a that we saw that manifest in
the fourth quarter. So a lot of asterisks by green
Bay's three game winning streak. We know Aaron Rodgers is

(28:26):
capable of herculean feet, especially with his back against the wall.
But I think for the first time in a while,
Minnesota is a little bit undervalued here. That's why the
three and a half disappeared. And to put things in perspective, guys,
before the year, when these two teams were completely on blemish,
hadn't played a single game. Green Bay was a six
and a half point favorite on a look ahead number
four this week seventeen matchup. Here we are with Minnesota

(28:48):
running away with the division, Green Bay fighting to get
the five hundred, and it's still the Packers right around
that three three and a half point favorite. I think
that's as big an indictment of where Minnesota is despite
this gaudy record as much as anything else. But I
do think they're a little bit undervalued here for their
trip to Landow. You know, Todd, It's the last thing
for me. I always wanted to I always have this
stream that I bet ten thousand dollars on a on

(29:09):
a future that was a hundred to one. I wanted
and I want a million dollars, but I never know
how much to tip. How much do you tip on that?
I mean, if you're taking home a million dollars, it's
better to air on the side of being overly generous.
I have never been in that spot myself, but I
think when you look at you know, when you look
at two to three percent, I think that is a

(29:30):
very fair rate. Really send them out on a nice
night on the town, dinner, drinks, and a variety of
other things. So the day that you end up landing
that hundred and one shot for ten k. They're going
to be ticket writers in sports book supervisors, whether they're
out here in Las Vegas or in another legalized jurisdiction,
that are able to build a shrine to you and
thank Arnie Spanier for one of the best nights they've

(29:52):
ever had. Behind I was I was worried I'd have
to give ten percent. I'm happy. Wow there A yeah,
ten percent is a little bit aggressive. I don't think
anybody's kind of a check for a hundred thousand, and
I know they're ticket writers out there who are probably
using four letter words to describe my behavior right now.
They were just thrilled to walk away with three to
five if somebody had that kind of windfall. The best

(30:14):
there is the excellence of elocution, making us all a
smarter public. As we head to the windows this week,
and it's our buddy Todd Ferman. That's a board podcast
where you find of Todd as always. Thanks for being
part of the show being a friend, and happy new
year to you, buddy. Thank you, happy and healthy new year.
Do you guys as well enjoy the college football semifinals
in Week seventeen. Gents, be sure to catch live editions

(30:37):
of The Jason Smith Show with Mike Harmon weekdays at
ten pm Eastern, seven pm Pacific. It's amazing how quickly
time passes. Here on a beautiful Friday night. Thank you
all for being part of the show with us BO
and Alex Uh, the departed Steve de sag and departed
as in he's going home to get some sleep, uh

(30:58):
and ponder the college football semifinal games. Uh, Arnie Spaniard
for Jason Smith Jason Spit Show with Me Mike Carmen.
Jason will be back on Monday as we get ready
for a recap of the semifinal games Week seventeen of
your NFL season and breaking down the good, the bad,
the ugly of Cincinnati and Buffalo on Monday night. Football

(31:18):
shaping up to be a good one. Joe Burrow basically said,
we're beating everybody. Bring him on. I wanted to close
this show with a couple of well fun ish type stories.
The first concerns the two thousand eleven Draft. We talked
about it a lot earlier in the week with the
announcement of the retirement of J. J. Watt and people
posting a lot of screenshots of the upper half of

(31:41):
the first round of that draft, and the again the good,
the bad, the ugly that came out of that in
terms of players drafted ahead of J. J. Watt, Who
will waltz into the Hall of Fame when five years
hence and all of those things. But Blaine Gabbert was
trending for a while, as was Jake Locker. But this
one concerns Blaine Gabbert is for the second time this week.
He was trending because he and his brothers were on

(32:04):
jet skis and they got into the water and to
rescue four people when a helicopter crashed near Peter Knight
Airport in Tampa, Florida, on Thursday. Year old his parents,
and the helicopter pilot went in. They ended up being uninjured,
which is an absolute miracle in and of itself. But

(32:24):
they're on jet skis and they were able to get
him out of the water and get them to h
to safety, which is pretty damn impressive. I heard him
tell the story. I listened to the two minute sound bite.
How incredible, absolutely incredible, being in the right place at
the right time. He said, he got two of the
people on his jet ski his brothers h put one
on each of his just as they were doing that. Uh,

(32:46):
there was a young man, I believe, I'm not the
young man wrapped, um trapped under not under the water,
but under something. Um. That's when the rescue also got there,
the Sheriff's department it and um, you know, the water
rescuing all that and together they got him back to
the beach. But uh'll talk about being at the right

(33:07):
place at the right time. Thank goodness, I mean he
was there. That was just absolutely incredible when I heard that. Yeah,
they said, Uh, the twenty eight year old Mr Hupp
trying to free himself from underneath the seatbelt and chords
and and getting water. And then you know, the jets
gears show up and it's Gabber and his brother for
the afternoon ride and come upon a stranded family. Is

(33:31):
that what is that much liveing right that someone had
to be in the area right. The other is, do
you remember the episode of Seinfeld where Kramer wanted people
to make their own pizzas you know, you need the dough,
you throw it up and down, you add your toppings,
and then you're able to thrust your pizza into an

(33:52):
oven and The running joke was what you want people
around a six hundred degree oven? You know, all of
those kind of things you really take And eventually he's
gonna get someone to get into business with him. Uh
and all that fun. And we've seen business is kind
of like that. They have. They have them here certainly
in southern California of hey, come and make your meals
for the week and a group of environment right, we'll

(34:13):
put them all into the ovens. You'll learn recipes, have
a glass of wine, make some friends. Whatever. Well, there
was a woman that was doing an incredible rant Adam
McDonald's and this is in Australia, and this is this
popped up on the radar. It's it's a few days old,
but uh, quote, I'll beat you up or I will
leave the patron yelling in the video and then she

(34:36):
goes into the kitchen and starts making herself a burger,
grabs a bottle of water, and then it was eventually
detained by a couple of police officers, but a bunch
of people standing in line waiting to buy their food, fries, whatever,
just started recording it like wow, this is next level stuff. Eventually,
the woman who started cooking yourself. The burger whipped a

(34:57):
water water bottle at another patron, so they archter with
a salt. But it's just one of those like yep,
all right, I'm done with you people. I want my burger,
and I want it now. Mike. If if we I
know we're running out of time, I'll tell you if
I wasn't married, I know who I would marry. The
girl from the waffle house that caught the chair when
it was man, Wow, my goodness, that was incredible. How

(35:22):
about Data White or the McMahon's ought to be looking
into giving her contract in short order? With her, She's
like that, are you kidding me? She just tossed it
away well and then she just did the stair down
like she was. She was like Rhonda Rousy in the
Ring till the next one, till the next unbelievable. Hey, Arnie,
thank you for all your help a couple of weeks
and sitting and I always appreciate the time with you.

(35:44):
Happy New Year, my friend, enjoy it to have a
great weekend. I can't wait to see We'll see again soon.
Arnie spanniard for James Smith. Coming up next The Bernie
Fratto Show here on Fox Sport Tradeo, Happy New Year,
everybody